rw
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Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 6:56 pm

I´ve heard that Northwest is going to select either the A330 or the 777 as a replacement for their DC10´s in september. Which plane you think they are choosing?
I think there is a 50/50 chance for both models. The A330 has about the same seating capacity as the DC10s and it would fit to NW´s A320 fleet. But it hasn´t the range of the DC10´s. (Does NW think about A340´s ?) On the other hand the 777 offers much range but seems to be quite big for NW´s routes and it doesn´t have the advantage of acommonality to the A320´s.
By the way: Is NW looking for a replacement for their DC9´s? And are they considering the A3xx / 747X ?
What do you think?
 
polaris
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 7:33 pm

Do they not have A330s on order or option?
 
na
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 7:46 pm

Looking at their current widebody-fleet Northwest has to replace all DC-10s and all 747 Classics during this decade. That´s more than 60 planes, fleet growth aside (maybe 30 widebodies more). Only the currently 14 747-400s will most likely survive after 2010.

I expect them to have a mix of Airbus and Boeing widebodies. At the top end NW will most likely order more 747s (747-400Xs and 747X) for fleet growth and as replacements for around half of the 742 fleet. NW uses their aircraft for a very long time and some of the 744s are brandnew. I don´t see them with the A3XX before 2010. There are around 10 747-Classics to be replaced before the A3XX will be in service. Some of them will need a replacement bigger than the smaller A340/B777s, so the 744 is by far the most likely choice.

In the smaller widebody-class maybe they will go for 777s to replace the other half of the 742-fleet and most DC-10-30s. But better is they would go for A340/A330s because the Airbus family has a wider range of sizes/seats. And they will be easier to integrate into the current fleet. I don´t see them go only for 777s to replace the DC-10s. For Transatlantic they don´t need always the range or capacity of the 777-200 (only if Boeing builts the 777-100 NW was asking for, but a shrinked Triple Seven might quite likely have worse economics compared to an A330-200).

 
JumboClassic
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:28 pm

The favorite topic again, what will NW chose for their DC-10 replacement? Only yesterday I wasn't going to make any predictions, but it seems more likely that they go with the 777. Not the -100 (Boeing is not going to build it), but the -200ER/LR. The 777 is a real money-maker for the airlines and a favorite with the passengers. Look at Air France - they have just exercised 4 more options for the 772ER, bringing their total to 23! For an airline that operates both the 777 and the A340 this speaks volumes.

As for NW, they are looking to make a major fleet decision which will cover not only the -10s, but also the 742s. So the plane they chose for replacement should also have trans-pacific range. So if they chose Airbus, they need both the A330 (for domestic runs and Europe) and A340 (for Asia). The commonality issue is not that big of a factor, since whatever plane they chose, they will need >50, so it will justify the introduction of a different type.

Why I think they will go Boeing? They have already expressed interest in the 777-100, which as a launch customer they could have got very cheap. It looks to me they have made up their mind, but are trying to get a better deal from Boeing.
 
nwa747-400
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:29 pm

I hope it's DC10s are replaced by 777s.

777s are beautiful airplanes...although NW has been used at least 3 engines of all oceans so they may not want to go to ETOPS.

Maybe it will be the A340 then.

 
N312RC
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 9:49 pm

I think that the situation is pretty much a tossup between both airplanes. NW has A-320/A319's. They also have 747/757's. Wont both airplanes have commonality between their respective sisters? What about a replacement for the DC-9 series? Are they replacing then with A319's?? Possibly an order for 717's?
My views as expressed above are my views alone and do not constitute the views of my employer.
 
JumboClassic
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 10:18 pm

NW have stated that the -9s will operate until at least 2007, so don't expect replacement decision soon. The cycle limit for the -9s is 104,000 (!!!) before they go for scrap. Pretty impressive for that little old plane.
 
nwa747-400
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Fri Sep 08, 2000 11:37 pm

The DC9 is an impressive little plane. All NWs are brand new in side and most are kept shiny on the out.

The A320s/A319s are coming to get rid of the 40 remaining 727s.

Your right, there will probably be a mix of A330s and 777s. Hopefully all the 747-200s can be replaced by -400s, but we'll see.
 
Guest

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:07 am

I also believe it will be a mix. Most likely they will Order new 330s for transatlantic and transcon and 777-200LRs for Pacific routes. (this is assuming they are willing to ETOPS certify). The 200LRs aren't going to be available to quickly though so I think they will Lease or buy some used MD-11s in the meantime. Used 340s might also be a possiblity.

Gregg

 
JumboClassic
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:20 am

I don't see any indications for this order to be a 330/777 mix. NW will most definitely want only one of these for the 300-seat category. If they chose the 330 for the transcons and Europe, why would they chose the 777 for the Pasific routes? And if they chose the 777 for the Pasific, why not use it for the Atlantic as well? They would definitely prefer only one type.

And why would they get second hand MD-11 or A340s? Please explain. The 772ER will be sufficient for flights to Japan (where NW hubs), and longer routes could wait for the 772LR. But MD-11s instead of LRs??
 
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PanAm_DC10
Crew
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:25 am

If used A340's were to be a possibility until 777-200LR's were to become available then perhaps Boeing could offer a very attractive Lease agreement on some of the A340's that they'll be buying from Singapore Airlines until the 777's could be delivered? Only a thought!

Regards
Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
 
N312RC
Posts: 2588
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2000 10:58 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:26 am

The only reason Northwest would get MD-11's is because KLM (partner) is trying to dump them. This is also a real possibility. It is also taking the easy way out of this problem.
My views as expressed above are my views alone and do not constitute the views of my employer.
 
EyeSky
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2000 4:52 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:33 am

All make good points above, but what about the 764? Isn't there supposed to be an ER version coming out? Seems to me like that it would seat around the same # of PAX in mixed classes and would be a great DC-10 replacement.

Wasn't the 772 was developed as a replacement for the 742? Wouldn't it be logical for NW to replace their 742's with 772's?

Any thoughts?
 
JumboClassic
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2000 4:37 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 12:58 am

EyeSky,

that's the whole point. NW wants only one type that will replace both the -10s and the Classics. The 764ERX simply can't do that and having both the 764ERX and the 772 is still two different types, which NW is trying to avoid.

As to the MD-11s, if they had an intention of getting some of those, they might have opted for Swissair's (before FedEx), but instead they are getting more -10s. (Remember, some of their -10s are ex-SR's). This comes to tell me that they intend to keep the -10s till whatever replacement becomes available. To introduce A340 even for a short term seems also quite inefficent, especially if they go for the 777, which I think they will do. Their current expansion needs on the Asian routes will be covered by some used 742s. They are getting some from UA this year.

Now KLM. Yes they are getting rid of their 11's (like everybody else but the cargo carriers) and they are rumored to get the 777 for replacing not only the MD's, but also 763s and 742/3s. Another reason for NW to go 777.
 
EyeSky
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2000 4:52 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 1:07 am

JumboClassic,

Do you have specs for the 764ERX or know where I can go to find them?
 
AT
Posts: 891
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2000 12:16 pm

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 1:28 am

since this central question surrounding the NW renewal seems to be
"A330 or 777???", I wanted to ask the pricetags for each type. Isn't the A330 considerably cheaper than the Triple Seven?

And would that influence Northwest's decision?
 
JumboClassic
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2000 4:37 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 1:30 am

Try this:

http://boeing.com/commercial/767-400erx/product.html
 
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sammyk
Posts: 1564
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 1:31 am

No matter what Northwest buys, unless they choose ONLY the A340, they will need to be ETOPS certified. You need to have ETOPS to fly the A330 over the Atlantic. So why would it need to be split? Why not just get all 777s if they need trans-atlantic and trans-pacific operations? Instead of getting the A330 and A340 where they would lose engine commonality. With the 777 (if they go w/ GE) they would have engine AND cockpit commonality...I know, the A330 and A340 are similar cockpits, but the 777 is the SAME.

Chances are that NW will embrace ETOPS, since even with the new A340NG will be maintained under ETOPS rules even if they don't need it. Just makes for a better maintained fleet, and greater reliability. Well just my opinion  

Sammy
 
USAirways737
Posts: 986
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:20 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 1:35 am

It depends on what 777 you are talking about. I would guess the A330-300 and 772 would be about the same. But the 772ER and 772LR would be more. And the 773 would deffinatley be even more.
 
cba
Posts: 4228
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2000 2:02 pm

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 2:38 am

The 764 is the perfect DC-10 replacement. It seats about 250 people, and the ERX will have a range of about 6000 nm, the range of a A330-200. The 777-200LR will also probably be ordered to fill the gap between the 764 and the 747-400/747X.
 
blink182
Posts: 5285
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 1999 3:09 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 2:40 am

I think NW will go Airbus on this one, They are replacing their boeings with Airbus's so I think they might go for the 340's. I kinda think more or less they may also go 777 so I might expect a variation, there really is not such thing as 1 type aircraft that can replace the 742's and DC-10 so i look for Northwest to go eitherway,it is really a toss-up whereas Delta,Continental or American will obviously go boeing. but for Northwest,it is a tossup.
blink182
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
HyperMike
Posts: 968
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 1999 7:03 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 3:03 am

Once again, we just won't know until the bean counters tell us what they're going to order.

Now, can we drop this topic? Please. It comes up every two or three days it seems.
 
patches
Posts: 237
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2000 5:56 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 3:31 am

Just one last note hypermike, The article in the Mpls tribune Only talks about 2 planes 777 or a330. They want one or the other. Right now its a dead heat to the finish line. They dont mention any 767 or a340. its only between these 2 planes. thank you.
 
Hamlet69
Posts: 2498
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 7:20 am

While I won't try and guess which they will chose, one thing seems to be getting clear; the competition to win this order is going to make NW a big winner, and whoever wins, will probably lose money on the deal. It seems for NW, the A330 or 777 would fill the job nicely, although the 777 does seem to have some economic advantages when you view the growth potential. However, either way, the bidding seems to be getting pretty low, and no matter how many planes NW buys, I doubt the winner will come away unscathed.

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
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coronado
Posts: 1162
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 9:14 am

I project they will end up ordering another 16 744's and 24 of the A340's. Engines are the same as 320's.
The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
 
na
Posts: 9297
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 3:07 pm

I would really like it if you´re right, Coronado!

More 744s and a fleet of A340s. Great. What about NW buying the A340 fleet of Singapore Airlines?
 
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RayChuang
Posts: 8060
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RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 3:29 pm

Folks,

In regards to replacing the DC-10 fleet, there is right now one issue that may defer any sales of the 767-400ER, 777-200ER or A330-300 to NW: ETOPS certification.

Remember, ETOPS certification is much more than just getting a plane with engines and upgraded electrical/hydraulic systems that can meet the 180-minute certification criteria. It also means the ground maintainance will also have to be able to meet certain criteria to service these planes, also. Unfortunately, NW has never gotten ETOPS certification, so the airline cannot fly today's "jumbo twins" on long-distance routes.

The easy way out for NW is to buy MD-11's second-hand and convert them to NW standards; given that most MD-11's are built in the early 1990's the planes have usually reasonably low airframe lives and could have at least 10 years of operational life given NW's standard maintainance policies.

But NW's president has stated they are interested in buying either the A333 or the Boeing "jumbo twins" (764ER or 772ER) fairly soon. That may mean NW may upgrade their maintainance bases to ETOPS certification. NW may want to buy the A333, but probably on the condition that it can fly at increased gross weights compared to the current A333 so it can carry more fuel for more range (e.g., a MSP-HNL non-stop flight on a full passenger load).
 
Guest

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 3:55 pm

Nw will not purchase b777 or b767 or md11
the choice will be made, more Airbus Aircraft. Nw has long time considered, and has had options for the A330, And NW is not in any hury to retire its dc10 fleet, first to go will be the b727
 
Spence
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 1999 6:54 am

RE: Northwest Fleet Renewal

Sat Sep 09, 2000 6:56 pm

Better check and see if those 16 A330's they ordered got converted to A320 or A319 orders.

I think we are going to see "jumbo twins" for the trans-Atlantic routes and 747's for the Pacific routes.

From what I have read and heard, Northwest doesn't want to use twins on their Pacific routes. They have had good luck and are very pleased with their 747 fleet and are not looking at the A340.

The MD-11 rumors just don't make sense when they continue to get pre-owned DC-10-30's. Two more just went into service from Thai Airlines.

There are many deals in the works, I'm sure. Boeing wants a major US airline to buy 717's. Boeing could offer Northwest a sweet deal if Northwest buys 777's along with 717's. The DC-9 is Northwest's most reliable aircraft and they love them. The 717 could continue that tradition.

On the other hand, Northwest has a large A320 and is building a A319 fleet. I'm sure they have been looking at the A318. Airbus would like more US carriers flying the A330/A340. Airbus would probably bend over backwards to get it's first US A340 operator.

This is all very interesting!

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