Topic Author
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Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 6:12 am

Hi guys, I would just like to get your opinion on which US based airlines do you think will either go bankrupt or bought by another airline in the near futur.

Thank you
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 6:25 am

well... I don't really have a clue... but Seven_fifty7 said something about TWA.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 7:12 am

I would Say Northwest.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 7:24 am

if customer satisfaction is a critical part of staying in
business, ASA should be near the top to go. But I think
they may have it made in the shade unless Delta
realizes they're embarrasing to be affilliated with.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 8:01 am


Are you insane? Northwest is thriving right now.

they have the highest load factor in the industry and, if not for the fuel prices would be making record profits.

Guess again AA777..or are you just jealous that NW wants nothing to do with AA.

I guess you are breathing a sigh of relief now that BA and KLM aren't going to merge...other wise AA would have been out of OneWorld so Northwest could have moved in!!!!!

AA77--this is all in good fun...don't angry 
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 8:09 am

No fair saying ProAir, right?

Of currently-established carriers, I'd not want to bet too much on Vanguard; if they don't get their route structure in order; establish some more brand recognition; and update fleet (the -200's are inefficient), they simply won't be competetive.

But they are scrappy- and who knows?
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...

RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 11:08 am

What about that startup airline at Chicago Midway, aviationman??

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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 11:11 am

The new Pan Am's future seems a litle spotty to me.
I wish it werent so, but I doubt they will last too long.
Get your patchouli stink outta my store!
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 11:21 am

Canjet, loads are average 12 people on the 737 flights like YHZ-YYZ where AC can fill a few A320's a day!!
"Clive Beddoe says he favours competition, but his actions do not support that idea." Robert Milton - CEO Air Canada
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Fri Sep 22, 2000 12:06 pm

I think National will fail. Everyone says it is great now, but it is a startup and they have to do their best. Watch what happens when tourism levels out or drops in Vegas. The economy is good now, but when it goes bad, the middle class stops throwing their money away out there. National tends to the tourism of Vegas, not the citizens.

RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 3:40 am


National is Las Vegas' hometown airline, so even though a large percentage of the travelers are tourists at the same time there are a great many business people traveling them as well. Las Vegas is so much more than just a place to gamble your money these days. The convention business is HUGE! and more and more things are being brought into Vegas to keep people coming back. National will survuve only if they keep their level of service up and this can be done by having dedicated people working there. You should give National a try and also the benefit of the doubt.

Drew =)
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 3:55 am

Dear Aviationman,

I'd say TWA is in real danger. It has only one hub airport, St. Louis, and that airport has a big Southwest operation keeping fares down on core routes. Also, when Carl Icahn sold of TWA in 1995, he wrenched from the airline an agreement to sell unlimited low-fare seats to one of his other companies, without regard for costs or yield management. That agreement doesn't run out til 2003.

TWA has also been late to the regional-jet and fleet-renewal games. Herb Kelleher doesn't take on the majors at their hubs as a rule; no doubt he (correctly) thought TWA was weak when he moved into St. Louis.

The pathetic attempt to merge with AirTran, of all carriers, in July only underscores TWA's weak position. I'm all for low-fare carriers, so I don't criticise that. But Icahn, Southwest, and TWA management have put that airline in a very perilous position. Look for final bankruptcy rather than buyout.

Jim K.
Washington, DC

Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:06 am

US Airways. They have the highest costs per seat mile in the industry, are totally inefficient, and offer a terrible product.

If they don't merge with United, they should be picked apart and split among the other airlines.

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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:18 am

America West.

RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:25 am


Pan AM XXX....gone (but there will be still another iteration...)
National...rocky..but here to stay in the short term....
Frontier...gone (they're a thorn in UAL's side)
TWA....here to stay...will become new media 'darling' displacing Continental
USAirways...will remain USAirways
United...the 900lb gorilla will become the 1200lb gorilla through internal expansion.
Delta...will finally and completely concede AA's dominance at DFW and pull out hub operations.(ok..this is a wild card)
American will concede UAL's dominance at ORD and concentrate on a building a fortress hub at DFW.
Alaska Airlines will be purchased by.......Continental (finally allowing them the west coast presence....)
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:38 am

Vanguard is looking like vulture bait right now....They'll be gone soon.

TWA is in a bad position but I think they'll pull it out. They have to wait two more years for the Icahn Karabu agreement to expire and they'll be good to go. It will be the most critical two years in the airline's history however.

Pan Am III...who the hell knows what they'll come up with next. I don't expect much forom them.

National...They'll be fine. LAS is more than a tourist market (really) and Harrah's will be kicking in some cash so they'l be ok.

Frontier...They're thriving right now. They've made it to profitability while based at DEN, a ridiculously expensive airport and a major UA hub.

USAirways...They have some real high costs right now. Don't expect that UA deal to go through, but they will have to sell out to someone else.

America West..Is an attractive buyout target

Oh, and AA won't be leaving ORD as a hub anytime soon. They have too much riding on it. And right now they're capitaizing on UA's bad summer to lure biz travellers onto their planes.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:44 am

We all know what Iainhol's response will be...  
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 4:47 am

Vanguard probably would be the next to go under.
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Be Ye Careful Of Such Predictions...

Sat Sep 23, 2000 9:34 am

My friends,

Delta777-XXX is right about me posting my OPINION of TWA's seemingly dire situation the other night. It rapidly touched off an armeggeddon-like tirade against my OPINION of the likes never before seen here at airliners.net. (You should have seen it. -It was quite an ugly and unimaginably violent bloodbath directed towards me). Whew! Glad I'm still breathing! And just think, before I got a chance to clarify my position, the thread got deleted!


Anyway, because of that hate-filled experience, I'm vowing to NEVER, EVER post predictions about the likely demise of a carrier, no matter how *nicely* I put it. Something about how there "are employees who use this site, and 'spreading such rumors' is an insensitive thing to do to them." Huh?  

Well, you get the point. I'll just sit back and be quiet for now.


RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 10:24 am


just kidding!

RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 10:37 am

I will agree that Vangard's future looks bleak. There's hope, but not much. I'd say they go bankrupt, looks like bad management to me. No offense anyone!!
TWA- I beleive in TWA, but they need to get their act together. If they play their cards right, they'll succeed. STL is a nowhere base for them right now. As said earlier, a number of airlines, including SWa, are on the prowl, and in TWA's capital weakness, competition is the last thing they need. I'd actually suggest they get into second-tier airports at major cities. How about PVD as an alternate to BOS? It's smack in the middle, between Hartford and Boston, why not?
They're already at LAX. I'd get the hell outta there. Too much competition, they should try John Wayne, or Burbank! Or even Ontario! They'll still ge the pax they need right now! Or even wilder, why not try and get a little service into LGB? I mean, it's near LAX, right in a medium-density commercial area. (dowtown Long Beach)
And then I think they should try for, and yes it is crazy, Seattle. Yes Seattle. All I can say is- $$$$ and business!! Enough said!!
Play your cards right, TWA, so you're beautiful colors will fly across the world again someday!!!

Pan Am- Nobody's gonna agree on this, but I feel that Pan Am's got their head on straight. Think about it, their flying second-tier airports near big cities to fairly large cities in proximity to enourmous cities. What they are doing is hiding in the shadow of the majors till they have the bucks to be daring. They'll make just enough money now to survive and make a good profit, and then when the time is right, they'll launch something like Portmouth-El Paso, for instance, and that'll get the ball rolling. Have faith, Pan Am is just waiting for the moment. 
The rest, National, Frontier, etc. They'll all pull through. I have exceptional faith in National and Frontier.

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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 11:15 am

I have to agree that Vanguard could be weak. How about Spirit?

US Airways--Please. US Airways is sitting on a fleet that's getting younger every day, and they've paid cash for at least half of that fleet. Sure, they have the highest CSMs in the industry. However, they're also dominating some of the markets with the highest RPMs in the industry. The most densely populated area of this country is the Northeast "Megalopolis." Guess what--US Airways dominates much of the traffic in that market. Keep in mind that Wolf is in the left-hand seat. US is actually in a position to eat, and not be eaten if this merger fails.

TWA-- Two years ago, my story would have been different. There is a light at the end of the tunnel for TWA. They're almost out of the whole Karabu fiasco, and in the next two years, they'll have a really young fleet. With Karabu out of the way, they'll turn to serious profits almost overnight.

National-- They're already playing with the big boys. They've taken on some of the toughest markets, and they're doing it with good load factors. With one-stop service between a lot of key markets all over the country and a young fleet of 757s, they'll be fine.

Frontier-- Nothing has stopped them yet. While UA might have a bigger presence in DEN, one of the most important business destinations in the US, Frontier is still the hometown team. If I were flying anywhere they went and had to pick between Frontier and United, there wouldn't be much of a decision. Frontier.

America West -- If the merger between US and UA doesn't go through, I predict that US will buy HP. HP has some serious operational problems, and its going to hurt them in the long run.

Pan Am 3 -- I completely agree with SOUTHPACIFIC on this one. They're playing the game Southwest played almost thirty years ago, hitting secondary airports and flying under the radar scope of the big boys. They're doing point-to-point flying into markets that other people have forgotten. They're providing exquisite service with legroom that puts American's "more class in coach" to shame. They won't be pulling in huge profits, and they'll stay low profile until all of the sudden the big guys will wonder where in the hell this Pan Am came from.

RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sat Sep 23, 2000 11:44 am

Hypermike, I agree with you on many points. Vanguard isn't in the best shape, but I do like the MSP-MDW drop, what were they doing there anywhere? Thats not their market. Between a redone easy to use website and major business destinations such as LAX and LGA being added, they may survive. Next hurdle however is Midwest.

Spirit is a first-rate airline. Not service wise, but operationally. If their is any airline to bank a future on it is Spirit. Spirit has played the game brilliantly. They've made money every quarter for the last like 15 years. Very cheap carrier, in sw fashion, but they can afford to charge super cheap fares and fill those m80s and 9s to Florida. Now they have twice daily LGA-FLL, they should be able to beat JetBlue and DL Express simply becuase of the geography. They were recently awarded rights to National from FLL. Damn, they're in fine shape. They know their market and nice and continue to thrive. Livery sux, but for them changing it is #30 on a list of 30 things to do.

National and Frontier are here to stay. Well run fiscally conservative carriers in huge markets. Too bad we don't see the sun king however.

TW will be fine. Operationally TW is America's #1 on-time airline. The'r SJU programme seems to be profressing, STL is at max capacity, so the airline is forced to expand in other places. LAX, despite tremendous presence by UA and AA may work. From Terminal 3, TW flies to DCA, SJU, and KOA. All three routes have no nonstop competition!! LAX is being built into a niche hub for exclusive flights. JFK is being reworked so the airline flies to dests where it can money and not to ones it can't. Thats business, despite the lack of prestige flying the star spangles banner transoceanically.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 5:19 am

I think South Pacific is on the money, except for one thing: TW would face WN in PVD just as in STL.

I definitely think PAN AM is on to something doing what they're doing. People are flying them. I have a friend in St. Louis and she said she's seen good press about them and is planning to use them whenever she can.

It seems like FRONTIER is under Continental's wing like MIDWAY is under AMERICAN's... when CO lost it's presence in DEN, Frontier picked up the slack and lets its passengers earn OnePass mileage.

I think VANGUARD is probably in the most danger... especially since MIDWEST EXPRESS announced plans this month to increase its presence in MCI.

I also think NATIONAL will last. They are in good with, and funded in part by, the hotel industry in Vegas, which I'm told is second behind only Orlando as a tourist destination. I just got my friend a great package with their vacation group... $449 for airfare and hotel.

"Is this the life that you lead... or the life that's led for you?"
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 7:45 am

TWA-there is a light at the end of the tunnel, they just need wait these two years with the same service, than a year or two after, they will pull through.Icahn left with an unfair deal and that hurt TWA, I expect TWA to make a breakthrough in the next couple of years.

Vanguard-they are hanging by a very loose thread

PanAM III-they are like a modern day SWA start-up. They are serving second tier cities next to the major cities-and they are capitalizing, I would not expect to see them in a major city soon but I think they will become a strong airline.

Midway-gets bought by AA...

National-If vegas weakens up, the will be down the drain.
I think US will be around for awhile, once this UA/US mess is cleaned. They have a young fleet and they are competing also.
just my opinions.
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 8:27 am

Yeah TWA is #1 for the year so far with 81.4%
Watch out TWA Northwest is right behind at 81.0%


RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 8:33 am

I cannot describe my feelings for Icahn. He raped a great airline in an important period, and has left them struggling ever since. TWA, if you pull out of this mess, you will go down in history in my books for the best turnaround ever! I have a newspaper from the STL Dispatch, that said on the front: "TWA makes it through another year" I respect TW for all they are worth, and it will be an incredible time for me when they are once again, the Kings of the Skys!!!!!

But I think that AW is a likely target for merger or takeover because they have a very attractive PHX hub and valuable western routes.


RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 8:59 am

America West I think is on thin ice. And they can't seem to get it together operations wise. If TWA and PAIII survive, then may miracles never cease and I hope that these two historical carriers do make it. Our avaition history would be poorer without them.
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Sun Sep 24, 2000 9:08 am

Hypermike and SOUTHPACIFIC:
I agree with the both of you.
There isn't enough room these days to fly into secondary destinations. The majors are starting to take up the smaller routes with the introduction of subsidiaries and through mergers like with USAir's Metrojet, American Eagle, Delta Ex, Shuttle by United, etc.
Get your patchouli stink outta my store!
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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Mon Sep 25, 2000 11:16 am


Of the airlines that you mentioned, none are really inteneded to serve secondary airports except AA Eagle. MetroJet, Delta Ex and Shuttle are all low-fare airlines-within-an-airline designed to compete against start-ups and Southwest

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RE: Which Airlines Will Fail?

Mon Sep 25, 2000 11:43 am

ok just my thoughts:

America West: Yes good buyout but NOT by US, more likely a 3 way AirTran/TWA/AmWest  

USAirways: UALs gonna get em... no doubt here  

NW: Staying, might actually take over someone  

Continental: Staying, another possible for Cactus (AmericaWest) (FYI Contiental tried to enter the west coast before with dedicated planes marked up as "Continental West") 

Alaska: probably staying  

TWA: Would like to stay, but needs help...  

UAL: Big and gets bigger every day  

AA: Runnig good for now out of ORD, but they seem to like to go up and down there so we'll see... 
DFW, they "MIGHT"   dislodge Delta...
Hate them for takeing over Reno  
Needs more in the Pacific  

Delta: Who knows.... 

Southwest: I can see them taking over ProAir or someone in the mideast, or maybe even buying Metrojet if USAirways sells it to get ok for UAL merger  

Other "wild cards": Spirit, no idea   , PanAm 2, go bye bye bankrupt PA2  
National, Las Vegas   National, thats all i can say
Frontier, staying just to annoying UAL  
Vanguard prolly gone  
Anyone else... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

And just for da heck of it:

AirCanada: Has Canadian now, good luck against Mapleflot  

WestJet: GO!  

CanJet: WestJet takeover or goodbye...  

Royal: Go away PLEASE! DIE!!!! Get taken over! i dont care just go away!!!  

Canada 3000: needs smaller planes!  

AirTransat: Needs MORE planes  

Roots Air: We Shall see      
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