AeroplaneFreak
Topic Author
Posts: 245
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:11 pm

I was just wondering what new airlines/expansions that Melbourne (MEL) will get over the next five or so years.
 
jetfuel
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:20 pm

With the world economy the way it is dont assume much growth for another few years. MEL has had a lot of expansion in the past 3 years
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Mikey86
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:39 pm

I think the most growth that will come will be from Domestic, Trans Tasman, Middle East and Asia. I dont think Melbourne will grow as fas at BNE will though. Would be nice to see some more USA services go to MEL  
mikey86 - Greenslopes, Queensland
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 18, 2011 4:43 pm

^^ I think Australian airports will see reduced growth over the next couple of years. If the AUD drops, along with an uncertain global outlook continuing, expect both inbound and outbound demand to significantly dampen.

Domestically, it will depend on the next moves by TT, as demand will likely drop at the lower end without them. Don't expect big growth from DJ or QF, but JQ may well be the only possibility to see real growth potential. Even the latter is questionable though at this time.

Internationally, increased frequencies to China, and larger aircraft on some routes are possible (2nd daily SQ A380, EK and/or MH upgrading to A380). I don't see any significant new route announcements though from new carriers, unless you count the possibility of DL taking over from VA on MEL-LAX as new.

On Trans Tasman routes, don't see much growth occurring, given NZ and DJs partnership coming into effect, and the possibility of continued dampening of demand stemming from the earthquakes.

Not really looking that promising, but in this industry, who knows.
 
tayser
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Tue Jul 19, 2011 11:22 am

Quoting mikey86 (Reply 2):
I think the most growth that will come will be from Domestic, Trans Tasman, Middle East and Asia. I dont think Melbourne will grow as fas at BNE will though.

based on? How is the next decade going to be any different than the previous where MEL increasinly pulled away from BNE (international passengers)?

You fail to acknowledge Melbourne grows by almost twice the amount of people per year compared to Brisbane.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:51 pm

Another thing that will likely be a factor in MEL growth is what will happen with AVV.

If AVV gains international rights, for which things have gone very quiet of late. If the rail link is built to AVV, there will be a change in the competitiveness of that airport, which will be interesting to see the results of such a move.

If TT reorganises or fails to sustain operations in Australia, It would be interesting to see what the fortunes of AVV are. In the event if TT stopping Australian ops, JQ could either add or cease service to the airport, but for some reason I think it will be the former. It would put JQ in a great position to get a very favourable deal from airport management. IMHO, the AVV terminal is a better facility than T4 at MEL, which will be a good selling point.

Without TT to deal with at MEL, it changes the equation for JQ on several route options.
 
Flyingsottsman
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:28 am

Apart from AI when ever they will come, I dont think we will see that much growth at MEL, maybe DL in a few years or maybe Air Canada might come back to MEL, I would love to see both Delta and Air canada here at MEL. I think all we will see will be increases in both domestic and internationaly with the airlines that currently fly into MEL. it is amazing to think that 20 years ago the amount of international airlines that flew to MEL compared to now.

Does anyone think there are more airlines flying to MEL now compared to say 25 years ago?
 
tayser
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:51 am

Target 30 million by end of next financial year?

http://www.melbourneairport.com.au/N...to-over-28-million-for-201011.html

Quote:
Melbourne Airport’s continued strong international passenger growth has seen total passengers climb to 28,190,457 for financial year 2010/11, an increase of 2,021,751 or 7.7 per cent compared to last financial year.

________

Additional international services in 2010/11 included:

Jetstar launched daily Singapore and Auckland services as well as twice weekly services to Queenstown
China Southern, China Eastern and Vietnam Airlines all increased to daily services
Virgin Australia Group increased international services to Los Angeles, Christchurch, Bali and Fiji.
Qantas introduced A380s and increased capacity on its London and Los Angeles services
Emirates introduced B777s and increased capacity on its Dubai services
Royal Brunei and Strategic Airlines commenced international services.

_________

International passengers for the 2010/11 financial year grew by 13.5 per cent or an additional 748,794 passengers compared to last financial year, taking total international passengers to 6,287,710.

_________

Despite some extreme weather events domestic passenger growth for the 2010/2011 financial year was solid with an additional 1,272,777 passengers or an increase of 6.2 per cent compared to last financial year, taking total domestic passengers to 21,902,747.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:21 pm

Flyingscottsman, there are more carriers flying here now, with far higher frequencies and seats available.

The evolution away from European carriers to a heavy reliance on Asian and middle eastern carriers has brought huge benefits to the market. More connection options and more of the world has opened up to us, including the move away from via SYD services, and other long journeys.

Yes it's sad to see UTA (now Absorbed into Air France), Olympic, Alitalia, Lauda/Austrian, KLM, Lufthansa, British Airways and even JAT or the short lived Jes Air leave our skies, but things moved on. Codesharing sees most of those listed carriers still flying here, but without having their own metal operating.

Now we have huge growth from China and Asia in general, for which we have seen significant changes to our market.

[Edited 2011-07-20 09:26:50]
 
AeroplaneFreak
Topic Author
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:52 pm

Lion Air have said they will fly 737-900ERs to MEL soon.

I could see EY become double daily, EK flying the A380, CZ double daily, Thai to use A346s instead of 773s, MH to use A380s in 2012.
 
anstar
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:59 pm

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 3):
^^ I

OT but what does ^^ Mean?
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:11 pm

^^ Lion Air and Batavia have both indicating interest in flying to MEL for a while. The former actually announced it's intention to start an Australian carrier at one stage, in partnership with the now defunct SkyAirWorld, I think it was called from memory.

EY- wouldn't hold your breath there. Competition from EK and QR is intense into MEL from the middle east. Reportedly LF% and yields are improving, but have a fair way to go yet. Even with the new VA deal, no mention was made about additional frequencies either.
EK- Definately a possibility, as it's always brought up as an upcoming change, and will likely be a defensive move to maintain it's already strong position into MEL.
CZ- Very likely to go 2 daily, given their ambitous expansion plans and growing Chinese demand into MEL.
MH- mentioned as a planned destination for the A380, it's move into OW makes it very likely
TG- no idea really on that one as they have had an interesting ride in this market for a while, and will depend on predicted F demand for a permanent move to the 346

New airlines are harder to pinpoint though. Skymark from Japan listed MEL as a destination for their 388's, but that won't be for a few years to come if it does eventuate. BI's continued ops here seem shaky though, so that might be a lost carrier in the making.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:13 pm

^^ = a reply to the above. Using an iPhone makes it hard to quote things so that's best option to use instead 
 
EddieDude
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:20 pm

Quoting mikey86 (Reply 2):
Would be nice to see some more USA services go to MEL  
Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 6):
maybe DL in a few years

DL is going to fly to MEL. The plan with VA is that the LAX-MEL flights will be operated by DL. This will enable VA to deploy its planes elsewhere.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:21 pm

^^ that's still a rumored move, but nothing confirmed yet.
 
smi0006
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:41 pm

How about CI or BR coming to Melbourne at some point? And if the Indian government allows it perhaps could we ever see 9W and IT here, perhaps if AI once again postpones... But then Predicting Indian carriers is pure guess work! HA is rumored to have a new destination in mind, perhaps MEL? With a strong Dollie and HAs domestic network maybe they can offer connections and be more competitive the JQ, AC or QF were? Be great to see AC down here too but doubt it!

Long term I could also see KE going daily, along with CGK or DPS for GA, maybe also some frequency increases for JQ to BKK and DPS. CZ will be double daily next year with a longterm goal of three daily!

Hopefully with the QF shakeup we will see some services added out of MEL; PVG, NRT once things have recovered (prior to the disaster there Japenese inbound figures were growing substantially!) BOM non-stop.

I hope we don't loose VA but I feel we may! It wouldn't be economical for either DL or VA but I would like to see DL fill in the gaps in VA's schedule as opposed to replacing them.
 
qf002
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:10 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 3):
If the AUD drops, along with an uncertain global outlook continuing, expect both inbound and outbound demand to significantly dampen.

Really?? A drop in the AUD would do anything but dampen demand to come into Australia from overseas as the costs go down for inbound tourists. One of the least advantageous economic impacts of having such a strong dollar is the increased cost for international tourists, which has been hurting our tourism industries. Sure outbound traffic may drop a little bit but inbound would definitely increase with a drop in the dollar. As for a bleak outlook - every bust is followed by a boom.

Quoting AeroplaneFreak (Reply 9):
I could see EY become double daily

I doubt it for now. If anything, we might see VA enter the market when they eventually get around to getting some more aircraft.

Quoting AeroplaneFreak (Reply 9):
MH to use A380s in 2012

Very doubtful. They're only getting 6 frames, have already publicly committed to LHR and AMS and would fly it either to Asian destinations or SYD first. Maybe the 747 that is displaced from LHR/AMS could be sent - I think there were talks of new A333s making it to MEL as well?
 
A330NZ
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:12 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 11):
BI's continued ops here seem shaky though

BI is pulling out of PER, BNE and AKL, and while discussing this in the NZ aviation thread, it came up that they only continued flying to MEL because it would be too expensive to pull the plug on it
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:32 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Really?? A drop in the AUD would do anything but dampen demand to come into Australia from overseas as the costs go down for inbound tourists. One of the least advantageous economic impacts of having such a strong dollar is the increased cost for international tourists, which has been hurting our tourism industries. Sure outbound traffic may drop a little bit but inbound would definitely increase with a drop in the dollar. As for a bleak outlook - every bust is followed by a boom.

I get where you are coming from, but it was in reference to the global economy, and its effect on travel patterns. If our dollar drops, whats to say that the gloal economy is still stalled, thus being a dampener on both inbound and outbound demand.

Quoting A330NZ (Reply 17):
BI is pulling out of PER, BNE and AKL, and while discussing this in the NZ aviation thread, it came up that they only continued flying to MEL because it would be too expensive to pull the plug on it

Yes, well aware of that. We will just have to wait and see if those predictions of I cancelling MEL service next year come to fruition. It would hardly be a shock.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Very doubtful. They're only getting 6 frames, have already publicly committed to LHR and AMS and would fly it either to Asian destinations or SYD first. Maybe the 747 that is displaced from LHR/AMS could be sent - I think there were talks of new A333s making it to MEL as well?

The latest comments from MH indicated LHR, MEL and SYD were in line for service, with AMS still in the mix too. With MHs move into OW, AMS may fall off the list, depending on what rships it decides to build on.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
I doubt it for now. If anything, we might see VA enter the market when they eventually get around to getting some more aircraft.

VA dont really have the aircraft availale. The 77W fleet is small, and unlikely to be expanded, and the A332 would need to go via Asia. There really are not many options to route a flight through Asia to AUH, without substantial competitive pressure being encountered. The best bet is for increased EY flights, but thats doubtful also for some time to come.
 
IndianicWorld
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Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:35 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 15):
How about CI or BR coming to Melbourne at some point?

Would certainly be interesting, considering some significant growth figures from Taiwanese passport holders into MEL. CI had been ruoured as looking at MEL, so who knows.
 
afterburner
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 7:03 am

Quoting AeroplaneFreak (Reply 9):
Lion Air have said they will fly 737-900ERs to MEL soon.

Lion Air has failed CASA audit. Don't expect the airline to fly to Australia in the near future.
 
qf002
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 7:07 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 18):
I get where you are coming from, but it was in reference to the global economy, and its effect on travel patterns. If our dollar drops, whats to say that the gloal economy is still stalled, thus being a dampener on both inbound and outbound demand.

Not sure I quite understand what you're trying to say? If the AUD drops then it's because the USD and Euro (predominantly) are gaining strength after losing a great deal of value through the GFC. If those currencies gain value while the AUD drops then we will see increased tourist numbers from the USA and Europe. There is statistical and historical evidence of these trends...

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 18):
VA dont really have the aircraft availale. The 77W fleet is small, and unlikely to be expanded, and the A332 would need to go via Asia. There really are not many options to route a flight through Asia to AUH, without substantial competitive pressure being encountered. The best bet is for increased EY flights, but thats doubtful also for some time to come.

IMO any further longer haul (ie outside Asia) expansion for VA will come with new aircraft down the track. A fleet of 787s (both -8 and -9) would be ideal for them size and range allowing them to fly across the Pacific, to the Middle East, into Asia and perhaps into Europe while keeping costs well down. I imagine that it wouldn't be too hard to sell the 77Ws off in 8-10 years if they decide to compete using smaller aircraft to more destinations. It's just a waiting game so they will focus on A330s and Asia for now I guess.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 7:36 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 21):
Not sure I quite understand what you're trying to say? If the AUD drops then it's because the USD and Euro (predominantly) are gaining strength after losing a great deal of value through the GFC. If those currencies gain value while the AUD drops then we will see increased tourist numbers from the USA and Europe. There is statistical and historical evidence of these trends...

Its not always that simple. Economics is not always so cut and dry.

If the Carbon tax has very adverse effects, or mining boom fail to fire enough to sustain other parts of our economy, then it will see the $AUD come under pressure. Dollar fluctuations do not only occur because of the global economy suddenly ramping back up to life, but has many other factors involved on a local level. There is major demand for outbound travel at the moment due to favourable conditions, but any change to that equation may not see the reduction in that travel type replaced like for like by Inbound travel demand. It is often abit more complex than that.

Europe and the US both have huge hurdles to overcome before they are serious contenders for major growth in travel demand again.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 21):
IMO any further longer haul (ie outside Asia) expansion for VA will come with new aircraft down the track. A fleet of 787s (both -8 and -9) would be ideal for them size and range allowing them to fly across the Pacific, to the Middle East, into Asia and perhaps into Europe while keeping costs well down. I imagine that it wouldn't be too hard to sell the 77Ws off in 8-10 years if they decide to compete using smaller aircraft to more destinations. It's just a waiting game so they will focus on A330s and Asia for now I guess.

LIkely a good move too. Time will tell.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:01 am

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 6):
maybe Air Canada might come back to MEL

I think with the arrival of some of the 37 787s starting in 2 years or so, YVR-MEL would be expected.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
qf002
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:09 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 22):
Its not always that simple. Economics is not always so cut and dry.

If the Carbon tax has very adverse effects, or mining boom fail to fire enough to sustain other parts of our economy, then it will see the $AUD come under pressure. Dollar fluctuations do not only occur because of the global economy suddenly ramping back up to life, but has many other factors involved on a local level. There is major demand for outbound travel at the moment due to favourable conditions, but any change to that equation may not see the reduction in that travel type replaced like for like by Inbound travel demand. It is often abit more complex than that.

Europe and the US both have huge hurdles to overcome before they are serious contenders for major growth in travel demand again.

This is getting way off topic and I'm not sure I can be bothered to keep debating this point tbh. The fact remains that the rest of the world will bounce back, and when they do our dollar will go down in value as theirs increase. This will result in inbound numbers going back up. We have no experience of this situation for outbound traffic (ie it's never happened before) but the rise of LCCs suggests to me that numbers won't necessarily drop a whole heap as the general population will still be able to afford international traffic even at future costs.

All speculation, of course, but we will see...
 
brad330
Posts: 17
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:47 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 11):
Skymark from Japan listed MEL as a destination for their 388's

what about QF MEL-NRT 3XW, MEL-CNS-NRT 4XW
 
tayser
Posts: 397
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:49 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:08 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 24):
The fact remains that the rest of the world will bounce back, and when they do our dollar will go down in value as theirs increase.

That's not a fact, you're blowing (simplistic) hot air.

When the rest of the world "bounces back" to use your words, it means that consumers in the US and Europe will start spending again, craving products from cheaper manufacturing locations like Asia and Asia will still require our resources to growth their cities and their manufacturing bases: hence it's far more likely that the value of our dollar will probably stay around the same, no sharp up or down move.

The RBA, economists in the media and many others are saying roughly the same thing.
 
IndianicWorld
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Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:22 pm

Brad330, don't hold your breath on that one.

Mr Joyce has made it fairly clear how it feels about starting routes from MEL afterall. Even JQ hasn't been deployed on the sector up to now, which seems to point to their reluctance to try it again also.

Japan would be a great addition to the MEL destination map again though.
 
qfa787380
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:00 am

Add GA as likely to increase MEL services as per this article:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...rline/story-e6frg95x-1226099315428
 
IndianicWorld
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Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:58 pm

^^ Good news. I can definitely see some growth potential into CGK. After years of stagnation, GA are definately moving things into higher gears now.
 
tayser
Posts: 397
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:51 am

http://airlineroute.net/2011/07/22/ek-w11-update1/

EK406/407 "expected" to go 380 in March 2012.
 
IndianicWorld
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Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:01 am

^^ If it comes true, great, but its almost been as frustrating as the whole AI MEL experience.

I guess we will have to wait for actual confirmation from EK, but even then they have changed their plans after that before to some other destinations.

Lets hope that EK finally do bring the 388 here, becoming the 3rd carrier to deploy the aircraft into MEL, after QF and SQ. Still holding out hope for a 2nd SQ 388 daily flight and commencement of MH ops also with their upcoming aircraft delivery.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 582
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:57 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8):
Codesharing sees most of those listed carriers still flying here, but without having their own metal operating.

yeah fair point, and yes time does move on, but for us MEL spottters would love to see those airliners back.

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 15):
Hopefully with the QF shakeup we will see some services added out of MEL; PVG, NRT once things have recovered (prior to the disaster there Japenese inbound figures were growing substantially!) BOM non-stop.

With Alan Joyce at the helm, dont bank on seeing QF ramp up international services in and out of MEL i dont think he is interested in anything South of NSW.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
I think with the arrival of some of the 37 787s starting in 2 years or so, YVR-MEL would be expected.

How come Air Canada droped MEL ? They didnt serve MEL for very long?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 4870
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:24 am

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 32):
How come Air Canada droped MEL ? They didnt serve MEL for very long?

9/11 I think, and it was via HNL. Did JQ also do MEL-HNL? There doesn't seem to be to much demand for MEL-HNL but maybe MEL-YVR non stop with a 787 could work?!

Quoting tayser (Reply 4):
based on? How is the next decade going to be any different than the previous where MEL increasinly pulled away from BNE (international passengers)?

You fail to acknowledge Melbourne grows by almost twice the amount of people per year compared to Brisbane.

I don't have the numbers but something tells me this isn't correct, OOL has taken some of BNE traffic but is that really correct even still, BNE has gained new airlines and service as has MEL perhaps both more so than SYD.
 
tayser
Posts: 397
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:46 am

stats from Aviation statistics on www.bitre.gov.au

Year ended June 1998

MEL: 2,407,826
BNE: 2,270,089
OOL: 16,465

Year ended December 2010

MEL: 5,872,602
BNE: 4,282,458
OOL: 786,669

combine BNE and OOL and MEL still pushes ~800,000 more people through its international terminal, whereas more than a decade ago there was hardly any gap.
 
tayser
Posts: 397
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RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 1:20 pm

breakdown of the main non-stop (with a few exceptions) international routes into and out of MEL

MEL-AKL
NZ 2x daily (772/763/77W/320 - frequencies/aircraft vary up and down around double daily)
QF 3x daily (738)
JQ 1x daily (320)
EK 1x daily (77W)
VA 1x daily (738)

MEL-SIN
SQ 3x daily (380,773,77W)
QF 1x daily (380/747)
JQ 1x daily (330)
EK 1x daily (77W)

MEL-KUL
MH 2x daily (772)
D7 1x daily (340/330)
EK 1x daily 77W

MEL-HKG
CX 3x daily (333)
(1x daily comes in via ADL)
QF 1x daily (744)

MEL-BKK
TG 2x daily (772)
JQ 3x weekly (330)

MEL-LAX
QF 1x daily (380/744ER)
(1x daily via AKL)
VA 3x weekly (77W)
( SA)">UA 1x daily via SYD)

MEL-DPS
VA 1x daily (738)
GA 4x weekly (330)
JQ 3x weekly (330)

MEL-CHC
NZ 1x daily (320)
VA 1x daily (738)
JQ 8x weekly (320)

MEL-WLG
NZ 8x weekly (320)
QF 1x daily (738)

MEL-DXB
EK 1x daily (77W)
(2x daily via SIN and KUL listed above)

MEL-AUH
EY 1x daily (345/346)

MEL-DOH
QR 1x daily (77L)

MEL-SGN
VN 6x weekly (330)

MEL-CAN
CZ 1x daily (330)

MEL-PVG
MU 1x daily (763)
CA 5x weekly (330)

MEL-PEK
CA 3x weekly (330) - seasonal
(CA 5x weekly via PVG listed above)
(JQ 1x daily via SIN and a stupidly long return layover in SIN)

MEL-ICN
KE 3x weekly

MEL-NAN
VA 5x weekly (738)
FJ 3x weekly (763/744)

MEL-CGK
GA 3x weekly (330)
(GA 1x daily if you include the 4x weekly that go via DPS)

MEL-MNL
PR 3-4x weekly direct (343)
(1x daily on a triangular routing via SYD)

MEL-BWN
BI 4x weekly (772)

MEL-HKT
VC 2x weekly (332)

feel free to add any if I've missed any
____________________

areas for growth:

Pretty much most of North Asia. PVG is the only port which is "well" served. PEK is seasonally non-stop only (can see them going 1x daily direct from PVG and PEK separately some point in the future) and KE only have a few weekly frequencies (another candidate for growth). Japan has no non-stop service entirely- SQ, CX, JQ, MU/CA/CZ and to a certain extent KE are the primary players all via other ports.

Indonesia - CGK up to daily non-stop on GA and more DPS from them as well.

new markets:

South Africa: even though VA tried and failed as they had the wrong aircraft (and not enough in the first place), maybe with their new JV with NZ, NZ are better equiped to restart with a quad engine aircraft which would compete with QF out of SYD and MEL is the right location to capture all of NZ, NSW, QLD, TAS and you could argue SA to feed the flight. NZ just needs to keep a few 744s for it to work.

South America: Tullamarine was envisioned as a hub for South East Asia to get to South America. AR started EZE-MEL in 1980 with a 744, but have never been back. I note they have 3 343's on order (old CX aircraft) which could make the hop across the southern Ocean. LA have many 787s on order, could see them via AKL in future. SQ & MH will have the aircraft (380s) which can make the non-stops to many South American cities if they ever pushed the Australian government to allow them 5th freedoms through to South America - VA's JV with SQ (and NZ) could influence it in future.

Canuckistan: well publicised 5 years ago that the CEO at the time said the 787 makes the economics on MEL-YVR work. If they dont start it, we should start world anti Moose and Maple Syrup day.  

Yankistan: the obligatory "SFO" and "LAS" from me...
SFO - UA with its new twins on order in a few years
delinking SYD and flying non-stop to MEL from LAX with the same new twins they have on order.
LAS - JQ a few times a week (and a few times a week from SYD making it a daily 787 service into LAS)



[Edited 2011-07-24 06:28:02]
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:26 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 33):
Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 32):
How come Air Canada droped MEL ? They didnt serve MEL for very long?

9/11 I think, and it was via HNL. Did JQ also do MEL-HNL? There doesn't seem to be to much demand for MEL-HNL but maybe MEL-YVR non stop with a 787 could work?!

Agree 9/11. Lots of discretionary biz travel dried up then. At the time, thy were serving YYZ-HNL-MEL and YVR-HNL-SYD with 763s, with coordinated arrivals at HNL as a scissor hub. As in an earlier post, I expect YVR-MEL to emerge as th 787s arrive.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
zizou
Posts: 1483
Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2000 10:31 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:51 pm

UL has not been mentioned here. i think they are a possibility of coming to Melbourne. They used to get good loads when they flew here last and Melbourne does have a large Sri Lankan population
 
6thfreedom
Posts: 2615
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:09 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:47 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 33):
9/11 I think, and it was via HNL. Did JQ also do MEL-HNL? There doesn't seem to be to much demand for MEL-HNL but maybe MEL-YVR non stop with a 787 could work?!

Correct.
services were announced august 2001, and commenced Nov 2001.
we all know what happended in sept 2001... s11 and ansett collapse.

AC operated through to August 2002, and then pulled the pin.

i think next time around it will be a non-stop operation, unless off course they co-operate with NZ and UA, to offer a non-stop via LAX or SFO non-stop to MEL.
 
Dizzy777
Posts: 29
Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2009 12:43 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:47 am

MEL suffers from SYD syndrome, while additional carriers and flights to new destinations would always be welcome, the airport itself has been leasing land under its control to non-aviation interests and has left itself in a position where future terminal expansions/ new terminals would be very difficult to accommodate with the limited space available. This will surely limit future developments, maybe not in the next 5-10 years, but at some point they will no longer be able to accept anything new and airports like BNE will be in a lot better position to cash in.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:37 am

^^ Ummm... Sorry, but theres not one bit of truth to that.

All airports in this country are looking at ways to use the land they have in the more profitable way, including BNE, but looking at the masterplans will give you a clear indication of how growth will be catered too. Thats the point of the masterplan approval process.

MEL has ample growth potential, with a few changes to the locations of some buildings, for which the masterplan illustrates, including the possile location of a new freight terminal area for instance. It could also ammend the masterplan in coming years, if it wants to, which could see them locate some terminal facilities on the Western side of the airport, which will be in between the runways, next to the ATC Centre. Theres AMPLE room to grow.

Stop talking doom and gloom, especially when your comments were quite far off the mark in terms of the reality.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:06 am

A couple of additional frequencies to list:

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
D7 1x daily (340/330)

It also has an extra daily frequency seasonally (total 2 X daily)

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
FJ 3x weekly (763/744)

An extra weekly frequency is added seasonally (total 4 X weekly)

------
In regards to the rest:

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
South Africa: even though VA tried and failed as they had the wrong aircraft (and not enough in the first place), maybe with their new JV with NZ, NZ are better equiped to restart with a quad engine aircraft which would compete with QF out of SYD and MEL is the right location to capture all of NZ, NSW, QLD, TAS and you could argue SA to feed the flight. NZ just needs to keep a few 744s for it to work.

Would be great, but as the 744 is on its way out of the NZ fleet, cant see them choosing to fly with them to SA. As SAA have no interest in flying here, from their comments at the start of VA service on the MEL-JNB route, it doesnt leave many options. QF are likely not going to take it on afterall.

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
South America: Tullamarine was envisioned as a hub for South East Asia to get to South America. AR started EZE-MEL in 1980 with a 744, but have never been back. I note they have 3 343's on order (old CX aircraft) which could make the hop across the southern Ocean. LA have many 787s on order, could see them via AKL in future. SQ & MH will have the aircraft (380s) which can make the non-stops to many South American cities if they ever pushed the Australian government to allow them 5th freedoms through to South America - VA's JV with SQ (and NZ) could influence it in future.

Did AR fly here? Had not heard that before.

Btw, the 744 didnt enter service until 1989 (First flight 1988).

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
SFO - UA with its new twins on order in a few years
delinking SYD and flying non-stop to MEL from LAX with the same new twins they have on order.

Would be great if it happened.

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
LAS - JQ a few times a week (and a few times a week from SYD making it a daily 787 service into LAS)

LAS yields would likely be very hard to make work.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 653
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:10 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 41):
Did AR fly here? Had not heard that before.

Btw, the 744 didnt enter service until 1989 (First flight 1988).

AR was flying to AKL prior to the Falklands War (ie around 1980-ish), but stopped when the war broke out. I was unaware that they served MEL as well, but they were definitely using 742s to AKL around 1980.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:00 am

^^ After looking at Wiki, I see that they did fly here ,commencing lights on the 2nd December, 1980.

Cant see how it was ever going to work back then, but atleast they gave it a go. Their ambitions at that stage were certainly on a bigger scale than today.
 
qf002
Posts: 3064
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:17 am

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
South Africa

Maybe a same plane A332 MEL-PER-JNB? SA have indicated that they would consider sending A332s to PER in the low season, so the plane can certainly do the journey.

Quoting tayser (Reply 35):
South America

I think growth will initially come via AKL. Once LA have a few 787s, I predict a move to SCL-SYD nonstop, and a rerouting of the current service to be SCL-AKL-MEL. Other than LA I can't see other carriers in MEL until South America has grown a bit more economically and until a substantial proportion of the population is able to afford big holidays to Asia and Australia...
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:43 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 44):
Maybe a same plane A332 MEL-PER-JNB? SA have indicated that they would consider sending A332s to PER in the low season, so the plane can certainly do the journey.

Cant see it happening. Without local traffic rights on the domestic sectors (PER-MEL-PER), its harder for it to work. A local carrier could atleast have filled seats with domestic pax on those sectors, making it alittle easier to make work.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 44):
I think growth will initially come via AKL. Once LA have a few 787s, I predict a move to SCL-SYD nonstop, and a rerouting of the current service to be SCL-AKL-MEL. Other than LA I can't see other carriers in MEL until South America has grown a bit more economically and until a substantial proportion of the population is able to afford big holidays to Asia and Australia...

I agree.

More of a possibility of a via AKL LA service than anything else. Even that is a remote possibility at this stage though I would suspect.
 
qf002
Posts: 3064
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:46 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 45):
Cant see it happening. Without local traffic rights on the domestic sectors (PER-MEL-PER), its harder for it to work. A local carrier could atleast have filled seats with domestic pax on those sectors, making it alittle easier to make work.

Sorry I meant VA!! I'm not very good at specifying what airline I'm talking about!!

So it kills two birds with one stone - international standard widebody product on MEL-PER (at a time when there's talk of A332s being sent to International instead of MEL/BNE-PER), the right sort of ~220 seat capacity and the quickest/most direct routing for pretty much all pax from outside Sydney (via a PER connection). Could even meet up with the NZ AKL-PER service (though I think its timing are a bit strange?).
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2769
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:03 pm

^^ Np. That makes more sense  

It would be a good compromise, but yields will still likely be an issue.
 
VH-BZF
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 1999 1:28 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:30 am

My understanding is that Cathay Pacific plan to de-link their HKG-ADL-MEL service, operating direct flights into and out of Adelaide. Then Melbourne will get direct non-stop 3 x Daily HKG services. The CX Melbourne team have said that they expect Melbourne will get its 4th Daily direct service in 2012.

BZF
Ansett Australia - (was) One of the worlds great airlines!
 
tayser
Posts: 397
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:49 pm

RE: Melbourne Growth?

Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:09 am

gotta laugh......... at Qantas...... if that comes to fruition.

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