shufflemoomin
Topic Author
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:04 am

Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:38 pm

I'm a Scot currently living in Denmark. I fly home a few times a year but I'm always surprised by the poor choice of direct carrier and the prices they charge. Does anyone have any insight into why this route performs so poorly? It's only relatively recently that Norwegian started flying to EDI from CPH and before that it was BMI/SAS or nothing. BMI fly a regional jet between the cities and the cost is sometimes beyond belief. I've been quoted over £400 for a return ticket with plenty of notice in the past and for a regional jet flying around 600 miles, that seems somewhat over the odds to me. In fact, checking a last minute fare for next week gives me a quote of around £900 which is a joke. I've flown BMI and Norwegian many times and I don't think I've ever been on a flight that's close to full. Anyone care to offer an opinion or insight into why no one except me seems to want to fly between these countries.  
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:40 am

Quoting shufflemoomin (Thread starter):
Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

My guess is that one reason is that there are so many dirt cheap ways with a transit at a London airport.

Add to that the fact that many travelers between Denmark and Scotland have no business anywhere near EDI, but maybe Glasgow, Aberdeen or somewhere else - places which are easily reached many times a day from London. There is no viable way to have any reasonable frequency between CPH and all airports in Scotland.

Also take into account that half of the Danish population would never think about CPH when going to Scotland. They would go from an airport in Jutland to London. In any case London is a much more convenient transit place than CPH because of frequency and choice of Scottish destinations.

And one last thing: Even if I have visited Scotland a few times (always by car), spent well over a month there in total, and surely enjoyed every minute, then I never met another Dane there. The exchange between our two countries is limited, and that's a shame.

[Edited 2011-08-24 18:43:01]
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
okobjorn
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:42 pm

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:06 pm

Quoting shufflemoomin (Thread starter):
and I don't think I've ever been on a flight that's close to full

Well, if it has never been full, then demand is not there, and the supply of flights will adapt to this...
 
ammunition
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RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:02 pm

if you book far enough in advance, you can get a better deal, much better than the 400 you quoted. There are also sale fares available, but of course you must be flexible and keep an eye out for them. With the regional service of bmi, you do get a comprehensive product, so once you factor in the extras on other airlines like norwegian, it isn't that much more expensive and it can be cheaper too  Also, the codeshare with SK allows access to their network
Saint Augustine- 'The world is a book and those who do not travel, read only 1 page'
 
rutankrd
Posts: 2569
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:08 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:48 pm

I think you are very misinformed BMI have been operating the route for a number years after it was transferred from part owners SAS.
For Glasgow in particular it's been the most stable and consistently operated direct service to any EU capital.
The use of junglejets and high point to point fares should indicate to you that a significant amount of connecting traffic beyond Copenhagen is catered for any therefore point to point is deliberately price high to control capacity
The route is probably quite good on yield basis
That said I suspect that a 736 or crj900 could readily be used at times
There is quite a high portion of commercial and pretrochemical trade between Scotland and Scandinavia and beyond that will pay high prices as a matter Fact
 
shufflemoomin
Topic Author
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:04 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 10:11 am

What part am I misinformed about? I'm just stating what I've seen based on my usage of the route. I'm not sure I understand you, but are you implying that BMI keep the prices high to keep demand down? If BMI charge high prices and can barely fill a regional jet, if they could charge less and fill a larger aircraft, why wouldn't they? Norwegian can fly to EDI for sometimes a 10th of BMIs price, I just don't understand why BMI charge so much. If another company offered the same route for way less money, isn't that good business practice to do so? My basic questions still stand: Why are BMI's fares so ridiculously high and why doesn't someone else undercut them and take that market?

I'm sorry if you in some way tried to answer those questions, but I don't really understand what your answers were.
 
David_itl
Posts: 5950
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 10:33 am

Quoting shufflemoomin (Reply 5):
If BMI charge high prices and can barely fill a regional jet, if they could charge less and fill a larger aircraft, why wouldn't they?

if the "high price, small aircraft" is more lucrative than the "low price, large aircraft" then BD is doing the sensible thing. If Norwegian have not been able to stop BD operating then it suggests that it's steady demand by GLA, particularly from the business sector. Norwegian may also need to have a large number of passenger on board before it makes money- it's okay to undercut but if BD gets 1 passenger paying the same as 3 on Norwegian, then BD revenue management is working.
 
rutankrd
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RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 10:40 am

Did i not make it clear its a Feeder service NOT primary Point to Point so tickets beyond Copenhagen are competitive.

Its may be a Regional Jet but its also Business Class heavy with a few as 15 economy seats offered per flight.

So fares are inevitably high Point to Point (Constrained by capacity )- Thats how Regionals work.

So its like connectors - First (The GLA-CPH leg gets an allocation of revenue guaranteed.
Second-Business Tickets Point to Point - These are the Petrochemical and commercial traffic - Will pay high fares (Contracts and Star frequent flyers etc....
Third are the economy and decretionary traffic - there are deals to be had if you look.

Regretably with such limited (Diliberate) capacity management short price will remain high (Effectively IATA ticket prices )
for any one else.

That how the legacies business model works and how they manage yield.

Suffice to say if they have a load factor of just twenty so so (half) - 15 connecting on and 5 full fare business . It may make more (Loose less) than a full load of paying typical low fares.(Regionals CAN NOt operate in a low Fares environment )

All that said i believe there IS enough traffic for SAS to recover the route with a CRJ900 or B736 and that WOULD result in some lower fares for sure.
 
simpsondude
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 5:17 pm

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:15 am

I'm actually surprised that U2 haven't operated EDI-CPH. Their network out of EDI is growing to cater for the inbound European market and major European cities.
 
shufflemoomin
Topic Author
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:04 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:18 pm

CPH>GLA as a feeder service? Feeder to what? Glasgow has a tiny handful of transatlantic services and as far as I know doesn't serve anywhere important that you can't get to direct from CPH. What routes would this service be feeding?

I don't think there's a market for U2 on EDI-CPH. Norwegian offer a 737 at good prices 3 or 4 times a week and I believe they're in the middle of adding Wifi to their fleet. That's hard to compete with. I wish there was more options though. Whenever I fly home or friends fly here, it's Norwegian or nothing in an affordable price bracket and that limits which days we can come and go. The only other option is connecting by train to Sweden or Billund or taking two flights. It's certainly slim pickings on that route.
 
rutankrd
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Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:08 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:29 pm

Its a feeder at the Copenhagen end obviously !

Star Hub and all !
 
David_itl
Posts: 5950
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:29 pm

Quoting shufflemoomin (Reply 9):
CPH>GLA as a feeder service? Feeder to what?

Other way round....it's GLA feeding the SK network out of CPH!
 
rutankrd
Posts: 2569
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:08 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:48 pm

I might add the route also has a valuable small package export dimension.
Notably salmon and whiskey via Copenhagen onto Japan and China !
 
CPH-R
Posts: 6058
Joined: Thu May 03, 2001 5:19 pm

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 3:59 pm

Is BD still operating the EBJ-ABZ route?

I assume that's one of the few routes that have sprung up as a result of demand from the oil industry (Esbjerg being a "hub" for the North Sea oil fields).
 
ScottishLaddie
Posts: 2309
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 8:30 am

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:57 pm

EDI-CPH is popular enough, especially during summer. With up to 3x daily ERJ service on bmi and 3x weekly B738 on Norwegian it's not exactly poorly served either, both airlines seem to complement each other quite well.
 
nef
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:44 pm

RE: Why So Little Demand For CPH To Scotland?

Sat Aug 27, 2011 5:20 pm

I'm not really convinced that the original assertion that there is "little demand" is really true. Currently we have:

EDI-CPH
BD about 12 weekly ERJ135/145
Norwegian 3 weekly 737
(July 11: 8262 pax combined)

EDI-BLL
FR 3 weekly 738
(July 11: 4275 pax)

GLA-CPH
BD daily ERJ135
(July 11: 1678 pax)

ABZ-CPH
SK about 12 weekly CRJ (?)
(July 11: 4388 pax)

ABZ-EBJ
BD 6 weekly ERJ135/145
(July 11: 977 pax)

*Pax data from CAA Jul 11 provisional stats: http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?ca...80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201107

By my count that's about 19k pax on 43 flights per week serving 3 airports in Denmark and also Scotland's 3 main airports. Whilst I appreciate this is a snapshot of July high-season and things are a bit quieter in winter, I still think that for 2 relatively small countries that's a pretty good level of service between them.

Where there may be more of an argument is for cheap links, as only really the Norwegian and FR services from EDI offer low fares, with the other flights arguably being generally biz focussed and therefore expensive. There is perhaps the opportunity for someone to offer a low cost service from either GLA or ABZ as I suspect they may be losing Denmark bound pax to EDI due to the expense of local services - I guess I'm an example of this as I flew to CPH from EDI on cost grounds last year even though I live 10 mins drive from GLA!

As far as pricing goes for the BD service from EDI/GLA, I certainly agree that they are almost always very pricey. I'm quite surprised by the suggestion that these services carry many connecting pax though, because I've personally never seen attractive (or even remotely competative!) through fares being offered for using these services to connect through CPH, either to long-haul or the rest of Europe - Fares via the likes of LHR, AMS etc are almost always miles cheaper. Given this I suspect that the BD traffic on these routes is mainly point-to-point and mostly biz. Whatever, it would seem they do all right with fairly limited pax numbers given these services have been operating for years, so their revenue management must be reasonably OK!

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