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fxramper
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:50 am

Looking at 80-120 frames including options. Shareholders meeting the 26th. I think it'll announce that Monday or by end of week. There is a lot being considered for the replacement currently. I could list 20 bullets for the order. Boeing is in the lead with the 764 but the A330 is also being considered. It's a good time to buy.


  
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:54 am

If you could list 20 bullets, why didn't you?

Kthxbai.

NS
 
fpetrutiu
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:55 am

My money is on the B764 since they are very very very happy with the B772F. Wonder why not just buy more B772F's
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:57 am

I think we're all very surprised at your wager. I had no idea you liked Boeing airframes.

The 777 is too large, heavy, and expensive to replace the MD-10. A 764 or A330 are much closer in size and heft.

NS
 
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1337Delta764
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:58 am

Just as Boeing developed the 764ER to suit the L-1011 and DC-10 replacement needs for DL and CO, perhaps Boeing could also develop the 764ERF to suit FedEx's DC-10 replacement needs. FedEx doesn't have any real need for the A330's additional range, and considering that the passenger 764ER already has more total cargo capacity than the passenger DC-10, I presume a 764ERF would be sufficiennt as a DC-10 replacement for FedEx.
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fxramper
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:58 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
If you could list 20 bullets, why didn't you?

It's more fun to text them to you on your phone.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 2):
Wonder why not just buy more B772F's

They want a MD-10-30 replacement (764).
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:59 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 5):
It's more fun to text them to you on your phone.

You'd have to take a break from the photo montage.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 4):

Just as Boeing developed the 764ER to suit the L-1011 and DC-10 replacement needs for DL and CO, perhaps Boeing could also develop the 764ERF to suit FedEx's DC-10 replacement needs.

I am going to say something I will regret:

I agree with you.

NS
 
fpetrutiu
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:59 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 3):
The 777 is too large, heavy, and expensive to replace the MD-10. A 764 or A330 are much closer in size and heft.

Sure, but they basically run 2 MD-10's on 70% of the routes, couldn't they just run 1 777? I guess it also comes down to scheduling of packets and connections.

Oh. you would be very surprised to learn that my all time favorite airliner is the A330  

[Edited 2011-09-03 19:00:45]

[Edited 2011-09-03 19:21:53]
 
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fxramper
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:04 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 4):
perhaps Boeing could also develop the 764ERF to suit FedEx's DC-10 replacement needs

  

Boeing and IS&S cockpits are being looked at and I heard Fred wanted the 787 buttons up front. The lobbyists are hard at work.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 6):
You'd have to take a break from the photo montage.

I'm glad that 3gS got broken or replaced.
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:05 am

I am very very surprised.

They run more than 2 MD-10s on some is my guess... but I'm stealing fxramper's thunder by guessing when he knows for sure.

My guess also is that the opportunity cost of the 767 is much much much much lower.


That being said, the A330 will also make a great freighter and is available today. A 767-400F isn't, they'll have to develop either a new type at Boeing or an STC for a conversion. That takes time and money.

Oh, look I just got a text that says "they want a 787 cockpit in the 767 but for it to be type rated with the 757". I don't recognize the number its from, tho.

NS
 
cargolex
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:06 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 7):

Sure, but they basically run 2 MD-10's on 70% of the routes, couldn't they just run 1 777?

They're not used for the same things.

With a fleet as large as FedEx's, each type has a specific kind of job. The 772LRF is a great aircraft and just about all of the people who've bought it love it, but it's too much plane for the MD-10 routes, and therefore you wouldn't be using it as efficiently.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
If you could list 20 bullets, why didn't you?

He might not be at liberty to discuss all of them.
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:08 am

Inside joke, Cargolex.

NS
 
cargolex
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:14 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 11):
Inside joke, Cargolex.

Figured when I saw his second post, but I'd already pulled the trigger.  
 
fpetrutiu
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:15 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 9):
My guess also is that the opportunity cost of the 767 is much much much much lower. That being said, the A330 will also make a great freighter and is available today

Wow, acctually I am agreeing with you. Although it would have been nice to see more 777 in FedEx fleet. I know the A330F is avail today, but didn't Boeing need the 764ERF to keep the 767 line busy until the tanker project gets onder way? I smell a very sweet deal for FedEx.

BTW, you might know, who in the world uses A330F's? I can't remember ever seeing one or mention of one.

[Edited 2011-09-03 19:16:52]
 
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fxramper
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:16 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 9):
That being said, the A330 will also make a great freighter and is available today. A 767-400F isn't, they'll have to develop either a new type at Boeing or an STC for a conversion. That takes time and money.

The md frames from 1968 can hold out a few more years.
 
fpetrutiu
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:17 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 14):
The md frames from 1968 can hold out a few more years.

I am sure FedEx mechanics have plenty of duct tape... Just kidding...
 
cargolex
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:22 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 13):


BTW, you might know, who in the world uses A330F's? I can't remember ever seeing one or mention of one.

Hong Kong Airlines/HNA, Turkish, and Etihad are using them right now. Malaysian/MASKargo is about to take its first - it's still at Toulouse. Turkey's MNG has some orders and will almost certainly make them work. The majority of orders were from lessors, the largest of which will be converting some orders to pax A330s.
 
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fxramper
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:22 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 15):
I am sure FedEx mechanics have plenty of duct tape... Just kidding...

It's 3M 600mph speed tape and it's saved an MD or two from going out of service.   
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:23 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 13):
Wow, acctually I am agreeing with you.

Don't hurt yourself.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 13):
Although it would have been nice to see more 777 in FedEx fleet.

They have 14 of 30 ordered and 15 options. I think you'll see some more.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 13):
BTW, you might know, who in the world uses A330F's? I can't remember ever seeing one or mention of one.

I sure do. Turkish, Etihad, and Flyington. Flyington is iffy however, I'm not even sure what their current business state is.

I was actually going to post something about upcoming orders for the frame, but I think the freighter market is in bit of a slump. Fedex's order will take advantage of that slump for pricing power.

NS
 
BMI727
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:25 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 9):
A 767-400F isn't, they'll have to develop either a new type at Boeing or an STC for a conversion. That takes time and money.

For 80-120 frames it will have to be a new type since there aren't that many 767-400ERs made and nobody seems interesting in selling them anytime soon. I imagine that for Boeing this would be a low cost offshoot of the tanker and existing 767 and 777 freighter programs.

I'd have to guess that Boeing is going to cut them a very nice price, since on paper the A330F would seem to be a better option. The 767 wouldn't even have much of a weight advantage on it, if at all.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
cargolex
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:26 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 18):
Flyington. Flyington is iffy however, I'm not even sure what their current business state is.

Flyington is all over. And more in the category of "never was" rather than "also ran."
 
fpetrutiu
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:30 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
I'd have to guess that Boeing is going to cut them a very nice price, since on paper the A330F would seem to be a better option. The 767 wouldn't even have much of a weight advantage on it, if at all.

You are right, except for a few things. Boeing pretty much needs the order to keep the 767 line busy until the tankers start rolling through. Don't think it would be too difficult to convert to B764ERF from a design standpoint and FedEx does not need the extra range and weight of the A330. In other words, I am sure Airbus will try to offer a good deal, but Boeing I think is has a little more reasoning to do so.

Also, doesn't the B764's have cockpit comonality with the 777's and can share the same crew?

For FedEx, I think both the A330F and the B764F would work well.

[Edited 2011-09-03 19:31:38]
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:33 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
For 80-120 frames it will have to be a new type since there aren't that many 767-400ERs made and nobody seems interesting in selling them anytime soon.

They could approve an STC and then deliver green airplanes to a third party. Like the A320 P2F, and ultimately how the A300F was built - new green passenger airplanes were delivered to EADS Dresden.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 21):
Boeing pretty much needs the order to keep the 767 line busy until the tankers start rolling through.

I think Boeing will throw airplanes at the problem. Which is the right thing for them to do.

NS
 
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:34 am

SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
cargolex
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:46 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 22):

They could approve an STC and then deliver green airplanes to a third party. Like the A320 P2F, and ultimately how the A300F was built - new green passenger airplanes were delivered to EADS Dresden.

This is not exactly the case. The new-build A306F's were just that, built as freighters - no conversions. A300 B4's were conversions, and there have been many conversions by EADS on pax A306's (indeed, these conversions are still going on - some just announced last week), but not the new-build A300-600F's.


View Large View Medium
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Photo © OlivierG
View Large View Medium
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Photo © Georg Noack



On the left is a new build, on the right is an EADS conversion.

The A320P2F program was to be a conversion of used aircraft, not of new-build narrow bodies, because nobody would buy a new build narrow body freighter. Similarly, though can buy a new-build 737 with a door, nobody but the military and a few special customers ever have since the eighties. The use of narrow-body freighters vs. narrow body pax aircraft dictates conversion, not new-build, at least these days. There was more of an appetite for QC/Convertible narrow bodies in the 1960's through the early 1980s. But the A320P2F is canceled now, for a variety of reasons.
 
gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:51 am

Quoting CargoLex (Reply 24):
The A320P2F program was to be a conversion of used aircraft, not of new-build narrow bodies, because nobody would buy a new build narrow body freighter.

TNT wanted to. But I can't think of any others.

NS
 
BMI727
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:07 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 21):
Don't think it would be too difficult to convert to B764ERF from a design standpoint

No it wouldn't, and most of the work has been done in one form or another already.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 21):
FedEx does not need the extra range and weight of the A330.

They don't need the range, but there doesn't seem to be much of a weight penalty for the A330. OEW for the A330 is about 240,000 lbs while the 767-400ER is about 229,000 lbs. Add in cargo handling equipment and some beefed up structures, and weight could be a dead heat.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
joelyboy911
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:38 am

Has the 764ERF been launched or announced by Boeing at all?

If not it would seem a moot point to suggest that FedEx will order it. I'm sure they can ask Boeing to build it but whether it's really a profitable exercise for them would remain to be seen, wouldn't it? Wouldn't the 764ERF suffer from the same problem as other hypothesised stretch freighters? Being too underpowered to lift full loads of cargo?

Humble questions, as I am thoroughly under-informed in this topic.
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einsteinboricua
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:43 am

Is it a winner take all order or is a split order on the way? I don't rule out a small A380F order (FX cancelled but never ruled out ordering it again in the future). However, to simplify costs a bit, I would bet more on the 767 winning the order than the A330.
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Stitch
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:46 am

Quoting joelyboy911 (Reply 27):
Has the 764ERF been launched or announced by Boeing at all?

Boeing have been in negotiations with FX, so while it is not yet a firm product, neither is it just a random idea.



The A330-200F is a great match for the MD-10-30F, but if FX is thinking of phasing out the MD-10-10Fs, A306Fs and A310Fs and wants cockpit similarity with the 757 and 777 fleets, a 767-400ERF could very well be the answer.

Boeing has reduced the construction costs and time of a 767 by a significant margin, so Boeing could offer a favorable price while still maintaining favorable margins. The new FAL can also support two frames at a time, so Boeing could increase delivery rates.

[Edited 2011-09-03 20:48:34]
 
Max Q
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:46 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 21):

Also, doesn't the B764's have cockpit comonality with the 777's and can share the same crew?

The Cockpit's may look similar but the type ratings are different and the underlying systems, totally different
so no !
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gigneil
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:48 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 28):
I don't rule out a small A380F order (FX cancelled but never ruled out ordering it again in the future).

Cancelled but Airbus still has the deposit. FYI.

Quoting joelyboy911 (Reply 27):
Wouldn't the 764ERF suffer from the same problem as other hypothesised stretch freighters? Being too underpowered to lift full loads of cargo?

At "general market density" yes. For FX? Maybe not.

NS
 
aerokiwi
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:11 am

So what would the engines be for FedEx on the 764F? GEs? Were PW ever an option on the pax variant?
 
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Stitch
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:17 am

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 32):
So what would the engines be for FedEx on the 764F? GEs? Were PW ever an option on the pax variant?

P&W PW4000-94 and GE CF6-80C2 were the options, but DL and CO both went with GE.
 
fuelfool
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:37 am

They would not be able to replace the MD-10s on a one to one basis, unless they completely change the way the entire fleet is loaded. The current ULDs fit from type to type very well. The 767 or 330 would change that, you would lose a lot of container space on them. An MD-10 can hold 16 AMJs, and an A300 holds 9. The 767 and 330 will not come close to 16, and will be closer to 9. Seven AMJs is a lot of volume and freight separation lost.
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Stitch
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:04 am

The A330 would be able to handle AMJ and AYY side-by-side as done on the A300/A310, but the 767 can't.

The 767-400 can evidently take the belly cans FX uses (per their flight test department), but they'd need a special main deck can.
 
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fxramper
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
The 767-400 can evidently take the belly cans FX uses (per their flight test department), but they'd need a special main deck can.

I'm curious where you heard this information because it's not entirely true.
 
Mir
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:34 am

The 330 will be better from a capacity and performance standpoint and is a more modern design, but it's a heavier airplane to begin with, and if FedEx decides they don't need the extra capability, it would open the door for a 767 variant, especially if they're set on commonality with the 757.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 21):
Also, doesn't the B764's have cockpit comonality with the 777's and can share the same crew?

No. Different cockpit, different type rating.

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lightsaber
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Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:42 am

IMHO this will be the most interesting wide body order of 2011.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 2):
Wonder why not just buy more B772F's

We'll start with:

Quoting gigneil (Reply 3):
The 777 is too large, heavy, and expensive to replace the MD-10. A 764 or A330 are much closer in size and heft.

The 777 just wouldn't have good economics on the shorter missions the MD-10s are deployed on. What I also suspect is:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
I'd have to guess that Boeing is going to cut them a very nice price, since on paper the A330F would seem to be a better option. The 767 wouldn't even have much of a weight advantage on it, if at all.

   But Boeing also will be able to offer buckoo short term delivery slots. The first KC-46 production tanker isn't due to go down the line until 2017. Between now and then, quite a few FedEx freighters could be delivered. Boeing also wishes to cut the production costs of the KC-46 as it is a fixed price contract. The easiest way to do that is increase the 767 production rate. This order would be able to do that.  
Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 32):
So what would the engines be for FedEx on the 764F? GEs? Were PW ever an option on the pax variant?

Pratt would compete hard. With the KC-46 engine win, Pratt had good 'economy of scale' for the 767 engines. A FedEx win would make it easier to 'mop up' further 767F engine orders. I expect the engine to be highly contested between GE and Pratt. I suspect FedEx has a slight preference for GE; but a 'right priced' bid by Pratt could win.

I hope this order is decided on the 26th. A very interesting order from both the airframe aide and the engine side.   

Lightsaber
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Stitch
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:54 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 36):
I'm curious where you heard this information because it's not entirely true.

A post on Airline Pilot Forums from an FX employee (FDX28): http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/archive/index.php/t-57453.html

Quote:
According to one of our flight test guys, the 767-400 fixes the problem of the belly cans - unlike the earlier models. Our current belly cans will fit in the -400.
 
SASMD82
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 7:19 am

Actually, introducing a 767-400 as a replacement for the DC-10 (MD-10) seems quite logical if you don't need the range or capacity of the A330F. However they are going to introduce the LD-2 pallets next to he LD-3 containers (I am not sure about the names though) . Hence they are not interchangable with the pallets they use for the 777, MD-11, MD-10, A300 and A310. I actually doubt that they will opt for this.
 
as739x
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Sun Sep 04, 2011 7:35 am

Now would FedEx having a growing fleet of 757's be a deciding factor? If they went with the 764, you have pilots to fly all but the 777 once the 727 and Airbus are gone.
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Worldliner
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:40 pm

Can definatley see Boeing giving FX a good deal, as well as creating the 764F for them. This is Boeing's order to loose IMO, and I think FX will choose the 764F for the fleet commonality.
@777Worldliner
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:12 pm

Quoting fxramper (Reply 8):
IS&S cockpits

Okay, for those of us illiterate airplane buffs - such as myself - what's an IS&S cockpit??

Quoting fxramper (Reply 8):
3gS

And what is a 3gS?

So I haven't seen any post specifically provide a thorough comparative analysis of the 767-400 and 330. So here are my questions:
1. What are the weight of each
2. Range, payload (sounds like container are an issue with the 767)
3. Price of each (I suppose this will be a guess)
4. Efficiency of both

Can the 767 take advantage of newer, more fuel efficient, engine technology?

I have to say that Boeing picking up an order for 80 - 120 767-400s would be the headline of the year! Imagine, this late in life and the 767, and the 400 of all models, is suddenly flying off the shelves! (pardon the pun)
 
wrenchon727
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:26 pm


IS&S (Innovative solution & support) is the company that FX went with for the cockpit upgrade on the 757 that they are converting, Airborne has them in their 767 and AA is upgrading their 757 with the new LCD screens offered by IS&S.
FX will go with their 777 package in their new build 767 powered by GE CF680C2 and new cans will be introduced into the FedEx system.

[Edited 2011-09-04 09:43:40]
 
nascarnut
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:43 pm

Didn't Fedex help McDonnell Douglas and keep the DC10 line open by ordering top-ups of the DC10-30F/MD-11 until McDonnell were building the KC-10 as a production model. If so, I imagine they could/will set up a similar deal with Boeing/USAF and get bargain prices at it.
 
HPRamper
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:45 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 7):
Sure, but they basically run 2 MD-10's on 70% of the routes, couldn't they just run 1 777? I guess it also comes down to scheduling of packets and connections.

Many of the larger markets get flights from more than one hub, at PDX for example, MD-10s came in from MEM, IND and OAK. All the freight cannot be routed through Memphis anymore, there is just too much of it. So theoretically yes, on some routes that may get more than one trunk aircraft from MEM a 777 might work, but those markets are in the minority.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 43):
Can the 767 take advantage of newer, more fuel efficient, engine technology?

If it's a replacement for the MD-10, I don't think it will be too hard to be more fuel efficient. I think the 757 was a 40%ish fuel savings over the 727 so I wouldn't be surprised at a significant savings on the 764 vs MD-10. Then again, there is still the ULD issue - I have not looked into capacity of one type versus another and I have no sources on the inside, but clearly the 764 cannot accomodate the same types or number of ULDs as the MD-10.

fxramper, you mentioned replacing the MD-10-30. As far as I know, those are being retired first, and at my station I have not seen a -30 in the seven months I've been here. Is this order going to address retiring the -10-10s or are those going to be around a while longer? Where does the -300 fall in the scheme of things?
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:55 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 46):
I have not looked into capacity of one type versus another and I have no sources on the inside, but clearly the 764 cannot accomodate the same types or number of ULDs as the MD-10.

The passenger 767-400ER holds somewhat more cargo than a passenger DC-10 (in terms of total volume), and I wouldn't be surprised if a 764ERF would hold a bit more than an MD-10F.
The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
 
fpetrutiu
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:56 pm

for example here at MCO, we get an MD11 and 2 DC 10's daily from MEM within 30 min of each other attiving at 6am. For this route it would see logical to have maybe an MD11 and a 777,or the cloud 9 scenario of an B748F or A380F daily...
 
wrenchon727
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RE: Rumor: FedEx To Decide MD Replacement Soon.

Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:58 pm

With 777 coming on line MD11 are now becoming more frequent in the domestic system, ORD & MSP are recent upgrades examples . The 767 will replace the MD10-10 and MD11's can replace the 17 MD10-30. The 767 make a good 10-10 replacement same payload, same gate foot print, and more fuel efficiant with one less engine mount in the tail. Working on No.2 and locking out reversers will be in the past, say it ant so.

[Edited 2011-09-04 10:07:02]