flyboy80
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Could Delta Grow SLC?

Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:34 pm

I always suspected that after the merger there would be a lot of system changes with the "new set" of hubs between NW and DL. Most of the changes or "de-hubbing" has occurred at the expense of CVG and MEM it seems.

It seems logical to me that Delta could expand SLC as a stronger connecting point given its geographic location, and possibly at the expense of MSP.

MSP seems to cater heavily to west coast originating traffic just looking at the schedule, but still remains, I will venture to guess here, as Delta's number two domestic hub? I imgaine it's slightly larger than DTW with mainline traffic.

I imagine the counter argument to this would be that MSP is in many ways like Chicago in that it sits almost in the middle of everything, despite it's further north, however close to DTW which theoretically can serve as a similar connecting point to any of the markets that MSP serves especially east.

SLC on the other hand is almost in the same position DEN is in, and seems like it could support a much larger connecting traffic profile than it currently handles. I was skeptical that eventually SLC would rise above MSP and that Delta would emerge with three strong domestic hubs of SLC, DTW, ATL- MSP, despite the massive operation just seems to sit in the middle of things, and DTW acts as a large international gateway, which suprises me because really couldn't MSP have the same benefit of an international gateway to Asia that DTW has, and provide similar originating if not more domestic traffic to international traffic?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
couldn't MSP have the same benefit of an international gateway to Asia that DTW has, and provide similar originating if not more domestic traffic to international traffic?

No because DTW has more o&d to those markets because of the auto industry IIRC. I think DTW has alot more premium business traffic too again the auto industry

I think DL is about right sized in the number of flights out of SLC. Its a pretty stable and DL has said time and time again surprising profitable hub. Why mess with success. The terminal cant really handle too much more the peak times are packed as is. Once the new terminals are built and CVG/MEM shrunk then maybe we will see some but DL has been pretty stable on SLC seats wise its clearly not going anywhere or at risk. If anything i am looking for LHR or AMS summer service to start
 
fjnovak1
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:09 pm

SLC does need some new terminal space. I think they probably could support more flights adding spokes in both directions of the hub. Maybe some of the smaller CA stations like SBP, SBA, MRY, etc would be more feasible with places like RDU, CLE, etc getting restored service headed east. DL has trimmed a lot of the secondary markets like ONT to DLC only when that station used to see MD-90's and 738's to SLC and many times early in the day they'd go out full.
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SESGDL
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Fri Sep 16, 2011 10:52 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
I think DTW has alot more premium business traffic too again the auto industry

In terms of service to Asia, absolutely. Domestically, MSP is the stronger hub. O&D-wise and yield-wise.

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
MSP seems to cater heavily to west coast originating traffic just looking at the schedule, but still remains, I will venture to guess here, as Delta's number two domestic hub? I imgaine it's slightly larger than DTW with mainline traffic.

I imagine the counter argument to this would be that MSP is in many ways like Chicago in that it sits almost in the middle of everything, despite it's further north, however close to DTW which theoretically can serve as a similar connecting point to any of the markets that MSP serves especially east.

SLC on the other hand is almost in the same position DEN is in, and seems like it could support a much larger connecting traffic profile than it currently handles. I was skeptical that eventually SLC would rise above MSP and that Delta would emerge with three strong domestic hubs of SLC, DTW, ATL- MSP, despite the massive operation just seems to sit in the middle of things, and DTW acts as a large international gateway, which suprises me because really couldn't MSP have the same benefit of an international gateway to Asia that DTW has, and provide similar originating if not more domestic traffic to international traffic?

MSP is DL's second largest mainline operation and second largest O&D city, after ATL, of course. MSP also is DL's highest yielding hub and is a larger O&D market than DTW, and is over 50% larger than SLC by O&D. One important metric to guage premium traffic is to look at markets that have first class cabins, MSP has more than 50% more service with aircraft with a first cabin that DTW. So while DTW has more seats, MSP has far more premium capacity, second only to ATL in the DL network. DL would be extremely stupid to let go of one of the few remaining fortress hubs in the US; MSP has high O&D (over 16 million per year), high fares (11th highest in the US), and very little competition. Despite its lack of transocean international service, it maintains year-round service to LHR, CDG, AMS, and NRT. It also has service to a number of Canadian, Mexican, and Caribbean destinations. SLC, while positioned excellently, has marginal O&D and low-fares compared to other hubs. SLC has been unable to support service to many mid-sized markets from SLC: ELP, MKE, CMH, BNA, CLE, PIT, CLT, RDU, FLL, TPA, MIA, YYZ, among others. If SLC can't support service to cities of this size, I fail to see how SLC could go and take that traffic away from MSP and DTW. In the long-term, DL's hubs will be ATL, DTW, MSP, NYC (LGA/JFK), and SLC, in that order, in terms of daily seats and importance. Something drastic would have to occur to change DL's hub makeup.

So, in short, to answer your question. No, I don't see SLC growing at MSP's expense.

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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:30 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 3):
SLC has been unable to support service to many mid-sized markets from SLC

I think some of the SLC cancellations on theses routes was just picking the best ones. SLC does not have unlimited gates or terminal space the two main banks are pretty full which is when these flights would need to be there too. It makes sense to connect the cities with more o&d or are unique and to connect the more eastern ones at the closer hubs. I wouldn't rule some of those out from returning in the future some of them did well in filling the seats.
 
AADC10
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:01 am

SLC shrinking is probably more likely. DL now has other larger midwestern hubs so the need for SLC is reduced.

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
SLC on the other hand is almost in the same position DEN is in, and seems like it could support a much larger connecting traffic profile than it currently handles.

Sure it could but DEN is the fastest shrinking UA hub, since much of its place has been taken by IAH. CLE would probably drop faster out of the UA system but the agreement with the city to pave the way for the merger is propping it up.

At least in the short term, SLC will be squeezed by LAX, MSP and DTW. If we go back to 1998 traffic levels then SLC is a good place to launch RJs all over the place.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:02 am

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
It seems logical to me that Delta could expand SLC as a stronger connecting point given its geographic location, and possibly at the expense of MSP.
Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):

SLC on the other hand is almost in the same position DEN is in,

Here's the big difference between DEN, SLC and MSP;

# of Fortune 500 companies by State:

Colorado 9
Minnesota 20
Utah 1

Where would you want to expand?
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yellowtail
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:24 am

SLC is ideal for some Central American destinations that are popular with folks from the pacific NW.....SJO, LIR, GUA, BZE weekend service would all work really well.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:27 am

Also it appears that Delta management is realizing what NWA management realized quite a few years back. If you look at the USA and Canada as one continental market, MSP is ideally located as a mid continent North American hub.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:47 am

This question has come up numerous times since the merger and the answer is that each hub has a different role. DL has rebalanced the network, including the roles of SLC & MSP.

In the PMDL network, SLC was DL's West Coast hub. It was used to connect anything to/from the East into smaller markets in the West that couldn't support service to ATL as well as connect pretty much anything west of the Mississippi to/from the West.

In the PMNW network, MSP was NW's primary hub to serve anything west of plains. NW was not a player on the intra-west coast but had a good prescence in the Upper Midwest, connecting the Pacific Northwest, Montana to the Midwest and east. MSP was, and still is a rather unique hub in the traffic flows in supports.

Post-merger, DL now as the ability to use both MSP & SLC to its advantage. Pre-merger, there were a number of "long and thin" routes that DL flew out of SLC that may have worked when fuel was cheaper but don't make sense now with the price of fuel and the ability to connect the majority of passengers over other hubs. Hence, many of the long RJ, CR9, and MD90 routes out of SLC can easily be routed over DTW, MSP, and ATL. See the list of cut cities below.

Same goes for MSP, MSP doesn't necessarily need to have the "long and thin" routes that it used when SLC is much closer.

MSP's role is to support the local O&D, connect the Upper Midwest (west of the Great Lakes & East of the Rockies), access to Canada, and connect medium sized cities from coast-to-coast.

SLC's role is to provide intra-Mountain West connections, and provide connections from major Midwest & East Coast markets into smaller markets in the west. SLC is no longer meant to serve markets like CLE-SLC-LAX (which can easily be CLE-DTW-LAX or CLE-MSP-LAX), instead its meant to be routes like BOS-SLC-FAT for example.

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
It seems logical to me that Delta could expand SLC as a stronger connecting point given its geographic location, and possibly at the expense of MSP.

In the short term, no one is growing domestically. DL is done for now with rebalancing the network and for now domestic capacity is going to be flat or slightly decreasing.

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
MSP seems to cater heavily to west coast originating traffic just looking at the schedule, but still remains, I will venture to guess here, as Delta's number two domestic hub? I imgaine it's slightly larger than DTW with mainline traffic.

Not really, however it does really well at connecting the West Coast to smaller and medium-sized cities in the Upper Midwest, and medium sized cities in the Northeast.

Quoting flyboy80 (Thread starter):
I imagine the counter argument to this would be that MSP is in many ways like Chicago in that it sits almost in the middle of everything, despite it's further north, however close to DTW which theoretically can serve as a similar connecting point to any of the markets that MSP serves especially east.

MSP and DTW also serve different roles. There are numerous small and medium sized cities in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River valley that lack MSP service. Same goes for the numerous Canadian cities and smaller and mid-sized cities in the plains and Upper Midwest than lack DTW service.

Example is that it doesn't make sense to fly a route like MSP-ABE, for 2 things - 1) longer stage lengths on 50 seat RJs where the economics really deteoriate, 2) DL's self-imposed 750 mile limit on 50 seat RJs thus pushing some of the longer routes from either hub to have a 2-class RJ when if they demand isn't there, doesn't make any sense to fly

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
No because DTW has more o&d to those markets because of the auto industry IIRC. I think DTW has alot more premium business traffic too again the auto industry

For the Asian service that is partially true, however DTW is located closer to the major east coast and southeast markets to act as an Asian gateway. Plus the terminal, and the existance that NW has grown over the past 2 decades has lead to what DL had developed today.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 3):
One important metric to guage premium traffic is to look at markets that have first class cabins, MSP has more than 50% more service with aircraft with a first cabin that DTW. So while DTW has more seats, MSP has far more premium capacity, second only to ATL in the DL network.

That is an interesting metric but some of that is more or less due to the nature of the network - particularly the abundance of routes >750 miles. DTW has a lot more short-hop flights to small and medium sized cities Quoting SESGDL (Reply 3):
SLC has been unable to support service to many mid-sized markets from SLC: ELP, MKE, CMH, BNA, CLE, PIT, CLT, RDU, FLL, TPA, MIA, YYZ, among others. If SLC can't support service to cities of this size, I fail to see how SLC could go and take that traffic away from MSP and DTW.

Again, many of these routes to SLC are "long and thin" SLC doesn't have the O&D for these cities pairs and the vast majority of connections to major markets can be routed over ATL, DTW, MSP, MEM or CVG. That is a lot of connecting sites to over-fly. Secondly, DL is at the limit of 76 seat RJs and these routes would eat up a lot of aircraft time. Lastly, so yes there are markets that are going to require a double-connection, like anyone flying MIA-ATL-SLC-EUG, but that is such a small number of passenger and I don't even know if any other airline could get you there without a double-connect (or at all).
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 4:56 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 6):
Here's the big difference between DEN, SLC and MSP;

# of Fortune 500 companies by State:

Colorado 9
Minnesota 20
Utah 1

Where would you want to expand?

And yet, SLC has been a very successful hub for DL ever since the DL/WA merger, with less population and fewer large companies than there are now.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:12 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 10):
And yet, SLC has been a very successful hub for DL ever since the DL/WA merger, with less population and fewer large companies than there are now.

But would you grow SLC at the expense of MSP which is what the OP was asking, obviously not.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:04 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 9):

Couldn't one fly MIA-DEN-EUG or MIA-SFO-EUG on UA, or MIA-SEA-EUG on AS?
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:21 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 7):
SLC is ideal for some Central American destinations that are popular with folks from the pacific NW.....SJO, LIR, GUA, BZE weekend service would all work really well.

I would love to see some different DL destinations... but let's face it. Latin America for DL is just like... well... "latin america". They dont care about us. Compared to CO or AA (which they both have at least 5-6 flights a day to different destinations from SJO)... DL has no intentions to grow here at our region. (no more than 2 flights to ATL... if necessary) and it shows... Latin America for DL is just GRU/EZE or something alike if they intend to grow.
 
delta2ual
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:51 pm

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 13):
Latin America for DL is just like... well... "latin america". They dont care about us.

DL (mainline) flies to: Belize City, Costa Rica (Liberia and SJO), El Salvador, GUA, Honduras (Roatán, San Pedro Sula, Tegucigalpa), Nicaragua, Panama; plus 8 cities in Mexico, and 11 cities in South America. I would hardly call that "not caring".
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:50 pm

DL has been pretty consistant on SLC, MSP, DTW, JFK, and ATL just all shifting to make the best uses of each city. I don't think any will come at the expense of any others really. They all have their own place and advantage to the network. Those are clearly the hubs that DL plans on keeping for certain.

Now IF CVG and MEM get that that could boost some of the other hubs in number of seats. For example we might see some just a random example im not saying we would but some MEM connecting traffic from Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana traffic shifted to SLC since its the only hub that really help them going West efficiently and we have already seen DTW gain CVG traffic for another example.
 
CWAFlyer
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 18, 2011 1:42 am

Quoting fjnovak1 (Reply 2):
Maybe some of the smaller CA stations like SBP, SBA, MRY, etc would be more feasible places

All of these cities as well as YUM and BFL discontinued service over the last 2-3 years.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 18, 2011 5:45 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 15):
For example we might see some just a random example im not saying we would but some MEM connecting traffic from Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana traffic shifted to SLC since its the only hub that really help them going West efficiently

Now, I could handle seeing some FSM-SLC nonstops instead of out of MEM, but, then again, I have selfish motives  
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:20 am

IF MEM gets really slashed DL is gonna have to get LIT, FSM, XNA, SHV, LBB for some examples headed to SLC on CRJ-200s.

Currently Delta still handles alot of that traffic thru MEM thats going west. MSP is far too north and ATL way too far out of the way if your headed West. Unlike CVG for the most part, MEM still has alot of traffic that currently would need some work to reroute if the hub were really to be taken down and those connecting flights dissapear. ATL is perfect for all those type cities for anyone headed East of course but if you headed west its way too far out of the way. MEM is still serving a purpose but if all the connecting cities get cut they are gonna need to get people west. I really doubt they are gonna give up all those customers headed west to American and United some of these cities have pretty high fares. The network will need to get some adjustments all over if CVG (capacity) and MEM are really cranked down even more is all I'm saying and im sure everyone knows that
 
flyguy89
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:48 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 18):
Currently Delta still handles alot of that traffic thru MEM thats going west.

I would buy that, but DL has been hacking away at their MEM west coast schedule. I personally don't understand it because this would be the best and most unique role that MEM could fulfill as a hub and yet DL doesn't seem to be doing it, something's just not right with the equation I guess.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:05 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 12):
Couldn't one fly MIA-DEN-EUG or MIA-SFO-EUG on UA, or MIA-SEA-EUG on AS?

I used those as examples sure, but DL does not have to be everything to everyone. There are routes where demand is so low it isn't even worth going after.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 18):
IF MEM gets really slashed DL is gonna have to get LIT, FSM, XNA, SHV, LBB for some examples headed to SLC on CRJ-200s.

There is no way that DL is going to connect cities like this to SLC. DL will even force connections over existing service (where it exists) at ATL or MSP, or just walk away from trying to provide reasonable westbound service to such destinations. Those would be extremely long and thin routes, and going against DL's self-imposed 750 mile limit on 50 seat RJs. Again, DL doesn't have to be everything to everyone.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 18):
The network will need to get some adjustments all over if CVG (capacity) and MEM are really cranked down even more is all I'm saying and im sure everyone knows that

Of course there will be adjustments. I know it is everyone's favorite hobby on a.net to predict the demise of CVG and MEM, however if history is a lesson DL will graduallly adjust capacity as needed. The wildcard is how much capacity is needed, and how the network will be adjusted to support the LGA slot swap. DL is planning a minor reduction in domestic capacity for next year vs. 2011, but nothing significant. As you and others have said, MEM has a more unique role in the network that does provide for some different traffic flows (albet small) that a more convenient than over ATL. CVG on the other hand as no connections that can't flow over DTW or ATL, except for service for the local O&D
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:16 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 18):
IF MEM gets really slashed DL is gonna have to get LIT, FSM, XNA, SHV, LBB for some examples headed to SLC on CRJ-200s.

Currently Delta still handles alot of that traffic thru MEM thats going west. MSP is far too north and ATL way too far out of the way if your headed West
Quoting Flyguy89 (Reply 21):
but DL has been hacking away at their MEM west coast schedule

DL does still have enough to make them successful going west and does connect alot of people which is why those are successful still. MEM still has its unique purpose still they are small cities but there are still quite a few and a decent amount of seats. MEM has service to the popular cities to the West that ATL would be too far out of the way. MEM isnt that hacked yet they can connect to all the most popular destinations still Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma City, St Louis and ATL can take everything to the East.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:58 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22):
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 18):
IF MEM gets really slashed DL is gonna have to get LIT, FSM, XNA, SHV, LBB for some examples headed to SLC on CRJ-200s.

There is no way that DL is going to connect cities like this to SLC. DL will even force connections over existing service (where it exists) at ATL or MSP, or just walk away from trying to provide reasonable westbound service to such destinations. Those would be extremely long and thin routes, and going against DL's self-imposed 750 mile limit on 50 seat RJs. Again, DL doesn't have to be everything to everyone.

I wouldn't think that DL would abandon the idea of any westbound service out of Arkansas from any or all of the three largest population centers in the state in LIT, FSM & XNA if service were to be reduced out of MEM. LIT and XNA have service to ATL, DTW & MSP as well....possibly CVG, too (currently). Right now FSM has 3 flights a day to MEM, always full and probably mostly connecting traffic. AA as 4 flights a day to DFW, also.

Just as a history lesson, in the last 5 or more years, there was indeed service from SLC to XNA and LIT, both routes that used to operate out of DFW before it was downsized as a hub.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:45 pm

Quoting CWAFlyer (Reply 16):
All of these cities as well as YUM and BFL discontinued service over the last 2-3 years.

And BLI, YYJ, YKM, SLE, ACV, etc......
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:41 am

If connections are not needed to the smaller cities but mostly to places like SNA, LAX, LAS, PHX, SFO, SEA and PDX they could run them Not during the main banks. SLC has tons of room in the middle of the day if those are the cities needed they could be easily added. Are the cities you think in range of a A319?
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:33 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 28):
If connections are not needed to the smaller cities but mostly to places like SNA, LAX, LAS, PHX, SFO, SEA and PDX they could run them Not during the main banks. SLC has tons of room in the middle of the day if those are the cities needed they could be easily added. Are the cities you think in range of a A319?

Another issue with these cities is the competition. There is a ton of competition and lower fares on pretty much any east-west route across the country between all of the legacies and the likes of WN and B6.

I can fly DTW-SAN much cheaper than I can DTW-BDL. Why? Every airline under the sun offers one-connection service to places like SAN, LAX, etc.

DL may just not be interested anymore in chasing the low-yield service and instead is being disiplined in the capacity they are flying.

SLC isn't a growth market for DL but it is part of their core network. When/if the airlines go into a growth mode, sure there could be some increases for SLC but that is also at the whims of the economy.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:54 am

CVG, from a business aspect, could probably be absorbed into DTW and ATL. Of course, CVG built those terminals and that new runway for DL, only to get bent over by DL not even 3 years later. I could go on and on...but none the less...there isn't the O&D traffic there...and it's obviously not the hub it used to be. If CVG (the city proper) would build the damn river port that would create hundreds of jobs in cargo handling and transportation, it may open CVG back up, but the city is making great strides to kill itself instead of transform.
This isn't where I parked my car...
 
flyguy89
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:31 am

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 31):
CVG, from a business aspect, could probably be absorbed into DTW and ATL.

The traffic flows it serves can and already pretty much have been absorbed by DTW, but they won't necessarily retain the corporate traffic which, in and of itself, is probably the only reason DL still has any type of decent service at CVG, P&G, Chiquita, Toyota, Kroger, GE...all are extremely lucrative for DL and are contracts they're apparently not wanting to let scatter among their competition.

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 31):
CVG built those terminals and that new runway for DL

Delta built the terminals, the airport built the runways. The airports debt is still marginal and the loss in DL traffic has been more than made up with increases in DHL traffic, fortunately the airport will not fall into a PIT-type paradox with airport fees and debt.

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 31):
there isn't the O&D traffic there

DL has shown time and time again that they're not interested in serving any O&D traffic at CVG other than the high-yield corporate contracts, hence the atrocious O&D numbers.

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 31):
but the city is making great strides to kill itself instead of transform.

Why the pessimism? Cincinnati has weathered this economic crisis extremely well, the Banks project is coming up on completion here soon, the Great American Insurance Tower just opened this past January, construction on the new casino continues, Omnicare has just announced it's transferring it's headquarters to downtown, the metro area continues to grow, Kasich is hell-bent on making the state of Ohio much more competitive and open to business...etc. Sure the city council still gets mired in it's politics at times and Mallory probably isn't the best mayor, but there's still many positives and Cincy has a much brighter future than most other cities it's size elsewhere in the country.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sat Sep 24, 2011 7:03 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 7):
SLC is ideal for some Central American destinations that are popular with folks from the pacific NW.....SJO, LIR, GUA, BZE weekend service would all work really well.

According to that argument, US's PHX hub is even more ideal for such service given its more convenient geographical location allowing convenient connections to/from California and nearly twice the O&D base.
.......
 
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RWA380
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 12:23 pm

I do miss the widebody flights out of SLC to points in the west. Flew business elite, Intl configured 763 to PDX a few times came in from ATL, was usually the last flight of the day out of SLC Ato PDX.

Of course at the other end of the spectrum I hated the early departure on a CRJ, that routed SLC-BOI-PDX when PDX had the Asia hub.
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LambertMan
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:40 pm

Quoting Flyguy89 (Reply 27):
Why the pessimism? Cincinnati has weathered this economic crisis extremely well, the Banks project is coming up on completion here soon, the Great American Insurance Tower just opened this past January, construction on the new casino continues, Omnicare has just announced it's transferring it's headquarters to downtown, the metro area continues to grow, Kasich is hell-bent on making the state of Ohio much more competitive and open to business...etc. Sure the city council still gets mired in it's politics at times and Mallory probably isn't the best mayor, but there's still many positives and Cincy has a much brighter future than most other cities it's size elsewhere in the country.

None of those means that the area has weathered the economic crisis well. What is the change in unemployment from 2008 to 2011? What is the change in GMP from 2008 to 2011? How is the housing price index performing?

Even in a down economy there will be projects that move forward simply because there are still good opportunities to make money for a developer -- some of them resulting from the financial hardships.
 
commavia
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:41 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
There is no way that DL is going to connect cities like this to SLC. DL will even force connections over existing service (where it exists) at ATL or MSP, or just walk away from trying to provide reasonable westbound service to such destinations.
Quoting mayor (Reply 22):
I wouldn't think that DL would abandon the idea of any westbound service out of Arkansas from any or all of the three largest population centers in the state in LIT, FSM & XNA if service were to be reduced out of MEM. LIT and XNA have service to ATL, DTW & MSP as well....possibly CVG, too (currently). Right now FSM has 3 flights a day to MEM, always full and probably mostly connecting traffic. AA as 4 flights a day to DFW, also.

Just as a history lesson, in the last 5 or more years, there was indeed service from SLC to XNA and LIT, both routes that used to operate out of DFW before it was downsized as a hub.

I definitely think Delta could and would put in 1-2 daily CRJ700s from LIT and XNA to SLC - there is definitely a meaningful westbound market from both cities, and SLC might just work. Both of those markets are large enough with enough continual traffic that I think they could probably support some service to a westbound hub if/when MEM goes away, and for Delta that hub would of course be SLC. Because of the geographic nature of those cities, the prime hub location for westbound connections will naturally always be DFW just because of where it is, but I think SLC would work. FSM - no way, that's too small a market, although I could see FSM shifting to a few daily CRJ200s to ATL perhaps.

But on the larger point, I agree that Memphis is not a necessary hub at the moment beyond the westbound connections it offers from certain markets in the south, but if you looked at those markets in particular, most are either sufficiently larger that they probably could support at least 1 daily CRJ700 to SLC if the MEM connections shifted there, and/or far enough east that connections could easily be shifted over ATL without much backtracking required for westbound passengers.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:34 pm

I guess since delta is trying to get out of the CRJ-200 long flights that they would want to fly a CR7 on the routes.

I really doubt that Delta is gonna drop those West bound customers. AA and UA have great connetion points headed West for them so the huge detour of ATL is not gonna be acceptable. Currently MEM does have enough for connections to the big cities and those flights i bet are really helping to keep MEM-West Coast alive. I bet DL is gonna keep them connecing this way until/if they really pull down MEM then they are gonna have to shift them over to SLC. MEM is prefect cause they can connect them east or west but SLC even not in the two main banks would have connecting options to all the most populat cities out west significantly more than MEM but they would have to fly to those cities with CR7s not Cr2s. This a good use of the Cr2s and the Cr7s are much more valuable and are valuable on other routes.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:43 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 32):

I really doubt that Delta is gonna drop those West bound customers. AA and UA have great connetion points headed West for them so the huge detour of ATL is not gonna be acceptable. Currently MEM does have enough for connections to the big cities and those flights i bet are really helping to keep MEM-West Coast alive. I bet DL is gonna keep them connecing this way until/if they really pull down MEM then they are gonna have to shift them over to SLC. MEM is prefect cause they can connect them east or west but SLC even not in the two main banks would have connecting options to all the most populat cities out west significantly more than MEM but they would have to fly to those cities with CR7s not Cr2s. This a good use of the Cr2s and the Cr7s are much more valuable and are valuable on other routes.

What destinations is every speaking of that MEM allows westward connections to? If the aforementioned cities of LIT, FSM, XNA, and a few other small destinations are it, than I really can't see DL caring about keeping these passengers in a post-MEM hub world. I could see DL adding SLC to a few places that currently have convenient MEM connections, like XNA, LIT, and maybe even JAN or LBB, but apart from that non of the cities with service from MEM (and not other hubs) really have all that much demand. All of the big cities between SLC and MEM and already served via SLC, save ICT, with service from SLC to: MCI, STL, OKC, TUL, DFW, AUS, SAT, IAH, and MSY among others. MEM doesn't really serve much of a role as a mid-continental hub anymore. It's importance is dwindling and I don't see it lasting much longer once the LGA slot swap takes place.

Jeremy
 
commavia
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:51 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 33):
What destinations is every speaking of that MEM allows westward connections to? If the aforementioned cities of LIT, FSM, XNA, and a few other small destinations are it, than I really can't see DL caring about keeping these passengers in a post-MEM hub world. I could see DL adding SLC to a few places that currently have convenient MEM connections, like XNA, LIT, and maybe even JAN or LBB, but apart from that non of the cities with service from MEM (and not other hubs) really have all that much demand.

  

Exactly right.

Look at the route map on Delta.com of where Delta flies from MEM. The vast majority of the major markets in the 'Deep South' that today have westbound connections over MEM either already does or easily could have those same connections routed through SLC, and the ones a bit further east already have great connections available over ATL.

The only markets of sufficient size in that region that really need convenient westbound connections for which ATL may be a bit too far out of the way are XNA, LIT, possibly SHV, and very very marginally BTR. Everything else either already has nonstops to SLC, is far enough east that ATL is already a perfectly viable option, or is (frankly) too small to matter either way.

And as for that last category - too small to matter - those relatively smaller markets are not going to be enough to justify maintaining the MEM hub, I believe.
 
flyguy89
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:59 pm

Quote:
None of those means that the area has weathered the economic crisis well. What is the change in unemployment from 2008 to 2011? What is the change in GMP from 2008 to 2011? How is the housing price index performing?

I was more trying to give a general response to address the general negative assertions he made about the local economy, but the numbers are certainly there to backup my assessment. If you ask anybody that does business regularly in cincinnati, they'll tell you the local economy is very conservative, typically plus or minus 2-3%. Because of this, cincinnati, while definitely negatively affected by the economy, has weathered the recession well. Unemployment remains below the national average at 8.7%, and while the GMP contracted by about 2.5% from its peak, it is projected to grow by 3 percent in this year alone. As far as the housing market goes, the cincinnati area has one of the most stable housing markets in the US. The mortgage crisis definitely had an impact in the area, But because the area had only marginally been affected by the housing bubble, Housing prices have remained relatively stable. Again, I'm not saying cincinnati is an economic power house, But because of the conservative nature of it's economy, it has weathered the recession better than most cities
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:26 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 34):

Id remove BTR and SHV and add JAN.
What gets measured gets done.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:17 am

LIT, FSM, XNA, SHV, LBB, JAN, BTR, SGF, GLH, ICT are the cities that MEM still helps and SLC can/will probably gain a few of those in the future. Maybe half of those cities at best can support a SLC flight. It will be interesting to see what Delta decides to do. I guess it will come down to how profitable those cities really are and how many really profitable elites are there who they need to keep happy with something headed West. I would think LIT, XNA, JAN, ICT, SHV would be the cities that have a chance and the most realistic for them to try if/when MEM really does bight the dust?
 
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RWA380
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:06 am

These cites being bantered around like XNA & SHV, in regards to a SLC flight connection instead of using MEM, seems as if there is no consideration that most of those planes connecting via MEM are not carrying west coast traffic, for those going XNA-LAX for example, would likely fly AA or UA via Texas. I hope that makes sense the way I wrote it.
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:39 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 38):
These cites being bantered around like XNA & SHV, in regards to a SLC flight connection instead of using MEM, seems as if there is no consideration that most of those planes connecting via MEM are not carrying west coast traffic, for those going XNA-LAX for example, would likely fly AA or UA via Texas. I hope that makes sense the way I wrote it.

I agree with this. There are way too many options to connect over DFW/IAH and too many passengers traveling east of the Mississippi for SLC to truly replace MEM. The problem is that MEM cannot compete with the large amounts of capacity flowing over DFW/IAH. Cities like XNA/LIT/BTR/MSY/TUL/OKC/ICT get much less flow to MEM than to DFW/IAH, resulting in higher fares and fewer connections over MEM. This strategy might drive up yield on the few passengers that choose that routing, but those schedules have to compete with the capacity and extra sections over ATL/DFW/IAH. I'm not sure how sustainable that is in a bad economy when everyone is scratching around for cheap seats. Meanwhile, I think SLC is worse off with very little O&D demand and offers little to the south central states that DEN/MSP do not already offer. Much of the flying to places like Montana has already shifted to MSP; only places in UT/CO/ID are up for grabs from SLC, and that's not a lot.
 
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RE: Could Delta Grow SLC?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:39 pm

Just as an FYI, the airport authority in FSM have been thinking of a nonstop route authority to DEN or SLC for quite awhile. Now, I know that this happens all the time and many are not successful, but just the fact that it is being thought of at all, gives me some hope. This isn't even in consideration of a possiblility of the MEM hub being closed. It was being thought of before the DL/NW merger, in fact.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen