LipeGIG
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New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:24 pm

As the previous thread / discussion reach more than 250 posts making harder for users with dial-up & low speeed access, we are opening the discussion thread nr 27 for New Frontier / Republic

Link to the last one (#26)
New Frontier/Republic #26 (by Tigerguy Aug 19 2011 in Civil Aviation)


Enjoy the website

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:52 am

I thought about responding to mke717spotter's question from the previous thread with regard to the job cuts at MKE, but I don't have much to add beyond what I've already said.

Post #258: "Does that bare any significance going forward as far as F9's MKE hub is concerned? (what's left of it anyways)"

I've said I wanted to see MKE sorted out and it is being sorted out.

The actual dollar numbers vary depending on which aircraft are being discussed for which period, but the latest numbers I have seen from Frontier are that he RJ short haul flying represents the majority of the YTD loss - tens of millions of dollars.

And what comes out of it is that the ERJ flying at MKE was a greater issue than the competition with Airtran/Southwest.

So what happens now? What is interesting to me is not what has been cut but what has been retained - and as happened at DEN, once it has been stabilized I would expect MKE to grow, but it might grow - differently.

It is different now, it isn't Midwest. As I said in the other thread, with hindsight perhaps the name should have been changed from the git-go so that was more clearly understood. But that would have been a whole other drama.


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Dickie birds have been confirming to me that the Apple Vacations flying is planned to expand next winter (2012) and that opportunities exist within the contract for "joint flying," - Frontier scheduled - in the same way that DEN-LIR is "in conjunction" with Apple Vacations.

So I'll be interested to see what happens with the Apple flying out of MKE, which this winter remains all Airtran, as does PIT. I don't know how long the Airtran/Apple contract runs or how Southwest feels about that sort of charter work.

mariner

[Edited 2011-09-24 20:53:57]
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:01 pm

service to JNU (Juneau) was discussed in the previous thread. I wanted to follow through with some data released Friday. Specifically the airline line item. To apprecaitate this report you have to understand the coach fare between SEA to JNU ranges from $500.00 to $900.00. The lower side of the range would be the super saver fare, an oxymoron IMO.

"The Juneau Economic Development Council has released its 2011 economic indicators report for Juneau and Southeast Alaska. Executive Director Brian Holst says they saw some positive economic signs for the Capital City in the report. He said from 2009-2010 what they see is Juneau's economy has rebounded very well from the national recession. People arriving here via Alaska Airlines was up 3.9%. Those coming by small aircraft increased by 17.5%. The number of passengers coming on state ferries increased by 6.6%"
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:47 pm

This appears to be the Denver Broncos charter flight a 764 returning to DEN from BNA following today's game. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/COA1818

The identical flight # CO1818 flew from DEN to BNA on Friday Sept 23

[Edited 2011-09-25 15:49:04]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:56 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
I don't know how long the Airtran/Apple contract runs or how Southwest feels about that sort of charter work.

Charter work is always good work....But of course SWA really does not do much compared to other mainline carriers or low cost carriers like G4 and SY or am I wrong because I have always been under the impression that SWA does not really do charters expect for the NBA, College, and College Bowls....
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:23 pm

The battle over the auction of the DCA/LGA slots is getting interesting, with the LCC's fighting amongst themselves now over the terms of the auction..

JetBlue and Virgin America have objected to the DOT's definition of "limited incumbent' (5%) and have instead said it should be the "below 20 slots" - well, duh! Guess who that helps.

They also oppose Frontier's eligibility at all because of the US Airways slots that Republic holds, putting RAH - but not Frontier - well above the 5%, although the DOT has given lengthy reasons as to why Frontier is included.

Southwest just wants them all - splat! - and in mega-bundles, with more slots divested and no restriction on how many bundles one airline can have. Ah, the joy of a fat wallet.

Frontier has come out swinging with a rebuttal:

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=FAA-2010-0109-0145

(Click on the .prf icon).

All the other LCC's are in favor of smaller bundles and Virgin America has come up with a novel twist - that LGA slots should be available for use at EWR.

It's a neat ploy - LGA slots used at EWR would enable Virgin America to avoid the LGA perimeter rule and fly transcons. Can you say chutzpah?

It's a very good read and I hope that aspects of it work - of course. But I am not holding my breath. Unless the DOT changes the rules I doubt Frontier will win any slots in this auction and I'd love to see the bogeyman of the Republic owned/US Airways leased slots laid once and for all.

The sooner BB sells 'em back to US the better, I say.  

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kingcavalier
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:33 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
The sooner BB sells 'em back to US the better, I say.

So, Republic bought the DCA slots from US during their BK and then turned around and leased them back to US? Is RAH getting any money right now from the DCA slots outside of getting CPA flying for US? Lease money? Do you have any idea how many slots there are and what the value of the slots are? It seems US would be willing to buy the slots back. It's got to be valued at close to $50 million.

Maybe I'm confused. Is it DCA or LGA slots that RAH bought from US?

[Edited 2011-09-25 16:34:57]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:49 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 6):
So, Republic bought the DCA slots from US during their BK and then turned around and leased them back to US?

Yes.

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com...51-60914&SessionID=HY2THSCK0tCVB77

"In September, 2005, we purchased 113 commuter slots at Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) Airport and 24 commuter slots at New York-LaGuardia (LGA) Airport under our commuter slot option agreement with US Airways. We assigned the right of use for these commuter slots to US Airways and these commuter slots are being operated by US Airways and US Airways Express carriers under a licensing agreement for which US Airways pays us rent. Prior to the expiration of the agreement to license the commuter slots, US Airways has the right to repurchase all, but not less than all, of the DCA commuter slots at a predetermined price. The licensing agreement between us and US Airways for the LGA commuter slots expired on December 31, 2006, but we maintain a security interest in the LGA slots if US Airways fails to perform under the current licensing agreement."

They've been a pain in the butt for the Frontier side because the DOT took the view that as Frontier was a subsidiary of Republic, and Republic held so many slots, it was not any definition of limited incumbent.

Republic has been fighting this and the DOT finally agreed and made an exception in the case of this auction, but I believe some may have been interpreted as a one time thing and Virgin America and JetBlue object to it anyway - as above.

I believe there is a plan to sell the slots back to US Airways, which would resolve the problem, but I don't know the details of it - whether it is all or some and whether it is both DCA and LGA.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:01 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
US Airways has the right to repurchase all, but not less than all, of the DCA commuter slots at a predetermined price.
Quote/reference cited is from text not originator.

If I'm understanding correctly and not to confuse anybody more than I already am, these DCA regional slots are the ones Republic (RAH) holds discussed in previous threads as being owned by RAH when in fact they appear to be more of a quasi lease with US. I realize F9 holds four (I think) slots at DCA for the A319, A320 branded ops.

If RAH has any say-so in the matter I think it would be in their best interest to keep a few tucked away for a rainy day.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:58 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
I believe there is a plan to sell the slots back to US Airways, which would resolve the problem, but I don't know the details of it - whether it is all or some and whether it is both DCA and LGA.
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 8):
If RAH has any say-so in the matter I think it would be in their best interest to keep a few tucked away for a rainy day.
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 6):
Do you have any idea how many slots there are and what the value of the slots are? It seems US would be willing to buy the slots back. It's got to be valued at close to $50 million.

On September 22, 2005, the Company and US Airways entered into a Slot Option Agreement (the “Slot Agreement”). Under the Slot Agreement, the Company purchased 113 commuter slots at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and 24 commuter slots at New York-LaGuardia Airport. The purchase price for all of the slots was $51.6 million. The slots will be leased back to US Airways and will continue to be operated by US Airways Express carriers until the expiration or termination by the Company of the Amended and Restated Chautauqua Jet Service Agreement dated as of April 26, 2005 between US Airways and Chautauqua Airlines, Inc. or the Republic Jet Service Agreement, whichever is later, at an agreed rate. Prior to the expiration of the agreement to license the slots and after US Airways emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, US Airways has the right to repurchase all, but not less than all, of the Washington and LaGuardia slots at a predetermined price.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...9154/000115915405000066/form8k.htm

Repurchase Option. US Airways has a right to repurchase (the "Repurchase Option") all, but not less than all, of (i) the DCA Slots at a price equal to the purchase price paid by the Company for the Slots and (ii) the LGA Slots at a price equal to the greater of the unamortized amount of the purchase price paid by the Company for the Slots and $1.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...9154/000115915405000026/form8k.htm

In summary, RJET bought slots from LCC for $51.6mm and agreed to lease them back for the length of the CPA agreement (Sept 2015, as this agreement has no termination clause). Prior to Sept 2015, LCC can buy the 113 DCA slots at cost, and buy the the 24 LGA slots at amortized cost. LGA slots are lumped together with other Intangible Assets on the balance sheet so I don’t know at what value they are being carried.

Hope this is helpful.

[Edited 2011-09-26 09:02:05]
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:53 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 6):
Is RAH getting any money right now from the DCA slots outside of getting CPA flying for US?

Yes. When RAH reports its results, they report on three segments: Branded, fixed-fee, and other. The "other" segment includes the license revenue from the DCA slots and aircraft sublease revenue. It is difficult to say how profitable the slot lease agreements are when compared to the cost of capital, since we don't know the exact terms of the slot licenses.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 8):
I realize F9 holds four (I think) slots at DCA for the A319, A320 branded ops.

The DEN-DCA flights use slot exemptions, while the MKE/MCI/OMA-DCA flights use slots (as it appears, a total of eight slot pairs).
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:40 pm

It seems to me that Delta has always had two faces with regard to Republic/Frontier - loves fixed fee/doesn't love branded - and I wonder if we're seeing another example of that.

The old "rules of retaliation" by Northwest used to be very simple, at least with Frontier: invade any one of our hubs and we'll teach you a lesson you'd better not forget. Back off and so will we.

When Frontier announced LAX-MSP, NWA hit back hard, beefing up LAX-MSP and matching fares but also - with surgical precision, starting DEN-LAX as 3 x daily - which really hurt Frontier.

Within a very few weeks Frontier dropped MSP-LAX and within a few days NWA dropped the retaliation, most crucially DEN-LAX.

(Sadly, of course, Frontier didn't learn its lesson and a couple of years later expanded at MEM. Guess what happened - although on MEM-MCO it was Airtran, Frontier's then recently announced partner, that did the nasty).

So it's been a couple of weeks since naughty Frontier dropped MCI-MSP but - so far - Delta has maintained the retaliatory routes. They still could be dropped, of course, and maybe I'm being impatient, but I've always had an eyebrow raised about this - although I would be very happy to be wrong.

I've never been convinced that Delta will cancel the retaliation and if the rumors I'm hearing are true it may go the other way, although not necessarily aimed at Frontier.

I wonder if the supposed rules of the game have changed (if there ever were any "rules" in the first place) or if the target was ever only limited to MCI-MSP?

Three dimensional chess? Or is branded (Frontier) a really annoying gnat to Delta?  

mariner

[Edited 2011-09-27 11:42:26]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:04 pm

Just for information purposes, the June loads out of MSY have been published...the first full month of DL on MSY-MCI. I was curious as to how well they'd do on a purely O&D, p2p route, competing with Frontier. Honestly, they did better than I thought they would. DL averaged 41.7 pax/flt in June (on a 50-seat ERJ), while F9 averaged a very strong 81.8 (on a 99-seat E190).

Airline........Segment....June.......YTD LF

Delta...........MSY-MCI...83.60%....83.60%
Frontier.......MSY-MCI...81.90%....70.00%

[Edited 2011-09-27 12:06:28]

And just for kicks, here's MSY-DEN...

Airline........Segment....June.......YTD

Frontier.......MSY-DEN...93.00%....86.50%
United.........MSY-DEN...87.90%...84.50%
Southwest...MSY-DEN...88.90%....81.50%


[Edited 2011-09-27 12:08:52]
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:18 pm

Question for anyone who may have any insight into next year's F9 schedules: I notice that the SAN folks have recently removed "OMA" from their list of nonstop destinations served out of San Diego -- seasonal or otherwise; MKE is still listed as an "F9 Summer Seasonal" route. I just looked around as best I could at the online Frontier schedules for next April and May and saw nothing at all out of SAN except a few DEN flights.

I know it's many months out, etc., etc., etc., but can anyone offer any ideas about the future existence of SAN-OMA and SAN-MKE? (I'm tempted to suspect that F9 has informed SDIA scheduling not to expect to see OMA next year, and MKE? -- I have no idea what's going on with that. (And, just for the record, I HAVE officially given up on ever seeing SAN-MCI on Frontier.) Any insight would be appreciated.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:04 pm

The S.C.A.S.D. grants are out. Green Bay, Harrisburg, Santa Rosa, South Bend, and Toledo all received grants. Perhaps now we'll see F9 start service to these markets. All of these markets said they were targeting F9 service to Denver. (Green Bay received money to make DEN service year round)

[Edited 2011-09-27 14:18:00]
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:14 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
I know it's many months out, etc., etc., etc., but can anyone offer any ideas about the future existence of SAN-OMA and SAN-MKE? (I'm tempted to suspect that F9 has informed SDIA scheduling not to expect to see OMA next year, and MKE? -- I have no idea what's going on with that. (And, just for the record, I HAVE officially given up on ever seeing SAN-MCI on Frontier.) Any insight would be appreciated.

OMA-SAN seemed like an aircraft utilization route to me. MKE-SAN IMO, still could come back. There is no competition on the route. I would actually think that MKE-SAN would come back before MKE-SEA (due to FL)
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:00 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 14):

The S.C.A.S.D. grants are out. Green Bay, Harrisburg, Santa Rosa, South Bend, and Toledo all received grants.

I'll settle for STS - Santa Rosa.  

Interestingly, Evansville (EVV?) gets a grant, too, for a revenue guarantee to Airtran for BWI service:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/...irline-grants-indiana_8703731.html

"The U.S. Department of Transportation is giving grants of $750,000 to South Bend Airport and $500,000 to Evansville Regional Airport to improve airline service."

I dunno how that fits in with what Southwest has said about these things.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
I know it's many months out, etc., etc., etc., but can anyone offer any ideas about the future existence of SAN-OMA and SAN-MKE?

It is indeed many months out and I would think there are "some issues" that have to be resolved first, such as the IBT court action.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:26 am

Thanks for the feedback guys...

I think for the time being and until proven otherwise, I will go with the lead of the SAN.org folks and assume OMA is a goner and MKE, well, maybe it'll be back in some minor capacity.

bb
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:24 pm

Finally some good news for F9 and SBN. The grant helps but a new terminal at SBN also figured into this. I really hope this pans out and I think it will. SBN will finally get the restored westbound connecting flights. (United used to serve this rout right after de-regulation but a B727 was a to big of an aircraft for it) F9's E190's are just right for this. Here is a link to the article.

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sbt-...ral-grant-20110927,0,5819607.story

I sorta knew about this for close to a year but I kept it under wraps until it became official..
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:38 am

Does anyone see any of the routes that MKE is losing soon possibly returning as more E-190's come on line? And a follow up question, what is the time line for the next few 190's EIS?
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:55 am

Not anytime soon on the 190's as we are deferring delivery until next year. And that is if the F9 is even still around. On the same side of things the pilots have all ready had a strike vote and it overwhelmingly passed with the pilot group.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:39 am

Quoting FutureFO (Reply 20):
Not anytime soon on the 190's as we are deferring delivery until next year. And that is if the F9 is even still around.

They're being deferred largely because of the IBT law suit. Personally, I doubt anyone would put up money in this financial climate until the result of that is known.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:29 am

Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 4):
Charter work is always good work....But of course SWA really does not do much compared to other mainline carriers or low cost carriers like G4 and SY or am I wrong because I have always been under the impression that SWA does not really do charters expect for the NBA, College, and College Bowls....

Southwest, because it doesn't fly red-eyes, actually does lots of charter work. This week alone we have charters operating daily for a variety of clients. We also operate scheduled service for vacation companies and these operate at normal business hours. I'd venture to say we operate several charters per week out of multiple bases.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:37 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 14):
The S.C.A.S.D. grants are out. Green Bay, Harrisburg, Santa Rosa, South Bend, and Toledo all received grants. Perhaps now we'll see F9 start service to these markets.

I also know GFK was looking for westbound service to DEN but they prefer UA
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 1:41 pm

Quoting FutureFO (Reply 20):
On the same side of things the pilots have all ready had a strike vote and it overwhelmingly passed with the pilot group.

That's false. There has been no strike vote. There isn't even one scheduled yet. Not to say it wouldn't pass by a landslide, but we aren't to that point in the process yet.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:45 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
They're being deferred largely because of the IBT law suit. Personally, I doubt anyone would put up money in this financial climate until the result of that is known.

I'd assume those planes are Embraer financed and even if they aren't Embraer has backstop financing. So, I seriously doubt a labor dispute is the issue, the issue is F9's ability to afford making the payments on the planes.  
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:51 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 23):
I also know GFK was looking for westbound service to DEN but they prefer UA

If FAR was not successful for F9, GFK definitely wouldn't be.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:12 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
They're being deferred largely because of the IBT law suit.


This is my understanding too. The IBT lawsuit gave the ratings agencies cold feet and halted progress on the $70+mm ETC spare parts financing that was to be closed by September 30. The financing was going to be directed toward a required 15% equity down payment for the the six new E190's that were to be flown as of part of F9. No ETC, no new E190's.

[Edited 2011-09-29 09:12:58]
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:18 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
I'd assume those planes are Embraer financed and even if they aren't Embraer has backstop financing. So, I seriously doubt a labor dispute is the issue, the issue is F9's ability to afford making the payments on the planes

Wrong... Wrong... Wrong.... It is connected to the IBT suit, and it is as simple as that. In addition to the IBT suit, the airline is heading into the winter season. The winter season is not a prime time to grow the airline. Additional airframes at this moment would require growth or frequency additions.

BB has laid out that the airline will be profitable in Q3 and Q4. He is also very interested in getting more 320's in the fleet. Sorry to bust your high bubble enilria, but F9 is turning around and starting to climb out of the turbulence. As BB always says, GOD BLESS!

[Edited 2011-09-29 10:20:24]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:50 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
I'd assume those planes are Embraer financed and even if they aren't Embraer has backstop financing. So, I seriously doubt a labor dispute is the issue, the issue is F9's ability to afford making the payments on the planes.

I shrug. It's out there.

Quoting mariner (Reply 16):
I'll settle for STS - Santa Rosa.

Article about potential STS - Santa Rosa - service, which isn't carved in granite yet because of present runway length.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article...8/BUSINESS/110929455/1036/sitemaps

"Sonoma County officials are preparing to offer Frontier Airlines $1.5 million in public and private incentives to start daily round-trip service between Denver and Santa Rosa next summer.

However, Frontier and the county still must negotiate terms of the new flights, described initially as seasonal summer service with a single daily round-trip flight. And the shorter runways at the county airport may prove an impediment to reaching a deal, county officials acknowledged."


Long time readers may recall that this is a dream route of mine - LOL - impervious to the more cynical number crunchers.

The sight of a Frontier tail at that cute, beautifully situated airport - surrounded by the luxury jets of the Bohemian Society members - could almost cause to consider a vacation at Russian River.  

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:22 pm

And here's a fun snippet. In this thread, the always reliable LAXIntl says that Frontier gets an additional 1 x daily slot at SNA:

2012 SNA Slot Allocation Award (by LAXintl Sep 29 2011 in Civil Aviation)

OP: "Slight reallocation of slots gives Alaska, Frontier and Southwest Airlines a single additional daily departure."

Personally, I think that DEN-SNA may be capacity saturated and 4 x daily may be enough. So I'd love to see Frontier use that slot for "somewhere else" -

No names, no pack drill.  

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:58 pm

Quoting WNCrew (Reply 22):
Quoting dlramp4life (Reply 4):
Charter work is always good work....But of course SWA really does not do much compared to other mainline carriers or low cost carriers like G4 and SY or am I wrong because I have always been under the impression that SWA does not really do charters expect for the NBA, College, and College Bowls....

Southwest, because it doesn't fly red-eyes, actually does lots of charter work. This week alone we have charters operating daily for a variety of clients. We also operate scheduled service for vacation companies and these operate at normal business hours. I'd venture to say we operate several charters per week out of multiple bases.

I was at MSO recently (alas, neither a WN or F9 served airport) and a WN 737 landed and taxied to an FBO. It was a trip from SEA returning some Montana National Guard folks from Afghanistan. I think WN does quite a bit of charter work for the DOD.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:11 pm

How about try a SNA-MCI. No other airline operates the route currently.

That was the market YX flew back when it used to operate from SNA itself.

A well timed E190 might be useful.
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 30):
I think that DEN-SNA may be capacity saturated and 4 x daily may be enough. So I'd love to see Frontier use that slot for "somewhere else" -

   How about ANC-SNA year-around. I suspect the 319 has the range. Although I haven't checked in a while I don't think AS flies the route without a stop in SEA

[Edited 2011-09-29 14:21:05]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:28 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
How about try a SNA-MCI. No other airline operates the route currently.
That was the market YX flew back when it used to operate from SNA itself.
A well timed E190 might be useful

And I bet I could guess what WN might then do with their new SNA-slot!  

bb
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:23 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 33):
How about ANC-SNA year-around. I suspect the 319 has the range. Although I haven't checked in a while I don't think AS flies the route without a stop in SEA

Well LA-Anchorage is hardly a strong year-round market. Seasonal yes, but even in the winters AS only manages a single flight.

For Frontier to enter the market would be a very tough p2p market. F9 does not have strength in the LA basin, nor up in Alaska. It would a stand alone venture having to fill the airplane entirely with local bodies. Tough marketing nut to crack.
Just look at F9s other LAX p2p experiments and their failures.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 34):
And I bet I could guess what WN might then do with their new SNA-slot!

Well such is the competitive market place ha.   
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:39 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
How about try a SNA-MCI. No other airline operates the route currently.

It's a valid thought. Knope2001 might have some perspective on that.

I guess I'd prefer it isn't just another DEN frequency, for all sorts of reasons, but this is Daniel Shurz's chess game.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 34):
And I bet I could guess what WN might then do with their new SNA-slot!

Southwest doing a Delta? I've never thought of Southwest in those terms, or that Southwest considers SNA a hub, but I guess anything is possible.

I also think that the slot offers opportunity for Frontier to fly to Places Variously Untouched, but I suppose "some other airline" might go doolalley about anywhere Frontier flies.

It's the nature of competition.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:19 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
I also think that the slot offers opportunity for Frontier to fly to Places Variously Untouched, but I suppose "some other airline" might go doolalley about anywhere Frontier flies.

Very nice...it is not a bad place to Bring Your Undergrads.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:39 am

I could also see MCI-SNA. Perhaps it could be why they are reducing MCI-LAX
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:07 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
I also think that the slot offers opportunity for Frontier to fly to Places Variously Untouched, but I suppose "some other airline" might go doolalley about anywhere Frontier flies.
Quoting JA (Reply 37):
Very nice...it is not a bad place to Bring Your Undergrads.

Perhaps a Long Distance Shuttle is called for?
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:29 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
Southwest doing a Delta? I've never thought of Southwest in those terms, or that Southwest considers SNA a hub, but I guess anything is possible.

I don't think of it as "WN doing a DL?" or of what WN considers a hub. But if WN sees a market in SNA-MCI, and they already connect KC very well with the w/c (SEA, PDX, OAK, LAX, SAN, plus of course LAS & PHX), it seems like a natural growth possibility for them. There are many other options for WN from Orange County to be sure, IF they don't just use that new slot for more frequency in an existing market.

I also have a "personal" view on this discussion. It seems that F9 is not interested in re-starting SAN-MCI, presumably since WN is still solidly in that market (dbl daily), so I see no particular reason why WN would just stand by and let F9 take up SNA-MCI without making a move. WN reasoning: we've kept SD-KC to ourselves by keeping F9 out, so why not do the same thing 80 miles up the 5 as well?

I really doubt that both cx would stick with SNA-KC for too long (the O&D traffic is a bit under 100 PDEW per DOT) although WN would have many more connecting options there than Frontier, but of course F9 could use the smaller a/c as a better fit for the local traffic figures.

Conclusion: in my fantasy world, F9 might then "retaliate" at WN for SNA-KC by jumping in to SAN-KC after all. And all would finally be right in my world!  

bb
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:03 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
I also think that the slot offers opportunity for Frontier to fly to Places Variously Untouched, but I suppose "some other airline" might go doolalley about anywhere Frontier flies.

I think that for a new route from a Point Variously Untouched, it would make far more sense to consider Life After X-rays.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
How about try a SNA-MCI. No other airline operates the route currently.

That was the market YX flew back when it used to operate from SNA itself.

SNA has better demographics than LGB, but I question whether a single daily MCI-SNA would do any better than the failed double-daily DEN-LGB. The saving grace, I suppose, would be the availability of connections at DEN to afford the necessary schedule convenience.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:08 pm

My preference for the new SNA slot would be DEN-PVU-SNA-PVU-DEN on the E190
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:44 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 42):
My preference for the new SNA slot would be DEN-PVU-SNA-PVU-DEN on the E190

In my ideal world, I would replace SNA with LAX - but for one thing.

At several Points Variously Untouched - and not just in Utah - there are massive Christian communities who regard LAX as the Gate to Sodom and that somewhere like SNA gives them access to the (equally massive) Christian communities of SoCal.

My partner's family are devout SDA and try to avoid LAX when going to, say, Loma Linda, an SDA heartland. If they do have to go through LAX, they spend all their time there (and on the aircraft) in devout prayer convinced they have laid themselves open to temptation. They do not let their teenage grandson out of their sight in case the corrupting Sodomites catch him in their butterfly nets, as, they believe, happened with their own son, my partner.

Far-fetched? Well, only a bit, it is what they believe and I would think many at, say, COS feel much the same way.

The off-set to that is that SNA does not give the international connection possibilities that LAX does, which might be crucial for a large percentage of a certain Utah place of higher (Christian) education.

Mostly, I think it would be fun if the 5th SNA slot not be just another flight to DEN, but, as I said, this is Daniel Shurz's chess game.

 

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[Edited 2011-09-30 11:51:38]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:07 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 35):
Well LA-Anchorage is hardly a strong year-round market
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 35):
Tough marketing nut to crack.

I'm not convinced SNA-ANC wouldn't work. It would sure be an outside the box initiative. In the fall AS offers an aggressive Alaska Perrmanent Fund (PFD) dividend fare sale which was announced a few days ago. The LA basin was always popular for Disneyland and Hollywood more than the Mexico routes. You also have a lot of people who fly to ANC to ski at the Alyeska resort in Girdwood 50 miles south of ANC. Quite by accident I've ran into some of Hollywood elite there who enjoy being off the grid. Think "Bucket List"

Back in the day Reno Air had a lot of success to from ANC to SOCAL via RNO. Going back about ten years when I attempted to use my PFD from JNU ( a much smaller market) to LAX and SNA it was sold out for a month. I did need three seats which probably didn't help matters. I was wait listed and ended up flying to ONT.

I say try it, if it fails than kill the route and use the slot elsewhere. I think the route would also serve as a valuable marketing initiative.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:12 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 43):
Mostly, I think it would be fun if the 5th SNA slot not be just another flight to DEN, but, as I said, this is Daniel Shurz's chess game.

In a way, like it or not, or as unimaginative as this may be, this makes the most sense. Whenever F9 deviates from DEN, they seem to get burned (MKE as the latest example, anyone?) and when they stay Denver-centric, they seem to do their best.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:32 pm

Quoting Point2point (Reply 45):
In a way, like it or not, or as unimaginative as this may be, this makes the most sense. Whenever F9 deviates from DEN, they seem to get burned (MKE as the latest example, anyone?) and when they stay Denver-centric, they seem to do their best.

I'm not sure that I agree with that. I believe BB has said he is quite pleased with MCI and I believe the same may be true of OMA.

I wouldn't include MKE, either. I don't think it is so much that MKE has failed but that the sub-99 seat model has failed. If they didn't think there was value in MKE there would have been even more cuts.

We haven't talked about AUS-BKG, but that's doing a whole lot better than some thought it would (which shouldn't be interpreted to mean I'm saying it is gangbusters) and it seems - stress seems - to have had a positive effect on MKE-BKG. It's tough for me to believe that anyone is flying AUS-MKE via BKG, but I guess anything is possible.

There are other issues. As with LGB, I believe that DEN to the LA Basin is already capacity saturated and there are strong rumors it may get more capacity yet.

But - whether it is true or not - doesn't change the fact that, sooner or later, one day, eventually, there has to be more to Frontier than DEN.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:57 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
AUS-MKE via BKG, but I guess anything is possible.

I will be next Friday, but it just happens that the intro fare and times made sense. I'm never flown an F9 E145 before either, so I figured I'd get my credit while I still can.

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
But - whether it is true or not - doesn't change the fact that, sooner or later, one day, eventually, there has to be more to Frontier than DEN.

I don't think I can agree strongly enough with that. See MKE. While obviously they are 2 very different markets, a fare war between 2 LCCs usually doesn't end well for one of them.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:31 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
there are strong rumors it may get more capacity yet.

I'm curious now......? Any bean spilling possible?

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
doesn't change the fact that, sooner or later, one day, eventually, there has to be more to Frontier than DEN.

I think that the sooner or later, one day, eventually, has to be when F9 gets themselves back into a lotta black doing what they are best at, and that seems to be DEN. And after that, the just need to hire someone who knows how to defy the laws of physics when it deals with making what works so well in DEN for F9 work someplace else........   ...... or anywhere else......

[Edited 2011-09-30 13:33:33]
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic Part 27

Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:53 pm

Quoting Point2point (Reply 48):
I'm curious now......? Any bean spilling possible?

It's a hornet's nest. Better to see what happens and if it does happen.

Quoting Point2point (Reply 48):
I think that the sooner or later, one day, eventually, has to be when F9 gets themselves back into a lotta black doing what they are best at, and that seems to be DEN. And after that, the just need to hire someone who knows how to defy the laws of physics when it deals with making what works so well in DEN for F9 work someplace else........   ...... or anywhere else......

For me, it's the sooner the better. There's no magic in all this. The disaster of MEM was entirely predictable and showed an essential and obvious flaw in the thinking of the time, long before Republic.

The issue isn't "less DEN" - there are still DEN destinations to unlock. It is "more other places" and we are seeing that already with the new MCO p2p's, which avoid the blatant pitfall of MEM.

As a side note, I thought LGB was a valid concept which, if anything, proved a point, as we now see with Allegiant.

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