United Airline
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Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:34 am

Will AA fly to HKG? There are rumours about AA flying between ORD and HKG. Still not a reality after so many years. Will they fly from another city to HKG with CX's recent HKG-ORD launch?

AA never flew to HKG before right?
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:40 am

I think they should. I think they will. And I think it will be from DFW on the 77W in late 2012.

JAL, being a shell of their former selves, just doesn't offer the same comprehensive Asian connectivity from NRT that they used to. I think its key for AA to utilize CX's strong SE Asia and mainland China network and that it's essential to fly their own aircraft there at this point.
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United Airline
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:45 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 1):
I think they should. I think they will. And I think it will be from DFW on the 77W in late 2012.

Did they announce anything?
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:48 am

No, that's just my guess, more of a personal opinion of how they should do it. But I think it's a safe bet that DFW-HKG is at least on their 'short list'.

Also keep in mind there still may be the perpetual pilot issues associated with that, but that all needs to get resolved SOON.

[Edited 2011-09-25 01:49:49]
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United Airline
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:54 am

The B 777-300ER is an option
 
netjetsintl
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:00 am

I've asked that question several times, hard to tell.

UA and Cathay are on the ORD-HKG route, there might not be enough room for one more.
Out of DFW they would have to rely solely on connecting traffic.
That leaves LAX.... Out of L.A their oneworld alliance buddy (cathay) has 3 daily flights

My guess, if they land in HKG, it'd be out of LAX

my 2 cents
 
jfk777
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:49 am

Quoting netjetsintl (Reply 5):
UA and Cathay are on the ORD-HKG route, there might not be enough room for one more.
Out of DFW they would have to rely solely on connecting traffic.
That leaves LAX.... Out of L.A their oneworld alliance buddy (cathay) has 3 daily flights

With all the Cathay flights to ORD, JFK and LAX AA should fly to HKG from where CX doesn't, DFW is the obvious gateway city.
 
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RWA380
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:54 am

I can't imagine them missing the opportunity to fly from their HQ hub to the hub of one of their best and largest alliance partners. Just like I'm sure you will see them fly from MIA when they obtain the appropriate aircraft for the route. I also fully expect them to share or possibly take over the DFW-SYD route. Either proposed HKG route would have them being the sole operator.

The pilot issue could very well be resolved with a BK filing discussed and rumored here on other threads. AA must get past this pilot issue with ULH flights soon, one way or another, or they will miss the boat completely when it comes to ULH flying, they will becomes less and less relevant as a carrier and alliance partner.

They have not moved forward as quickly as UA & DL, despite the mergers, now they are playing lots of catch up, having to replace tons of old planes, not seeing a positive balance sheets even with JVA with BA & IB, that those carriers claim they are enjoying, as well as updating 777's to at least compete ( service wise ) with their big alliance partners.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 12:12 pm

If AA does HKG, they need to go big and do both LAX and DFW. HKG, along with ICN & SYD needs to be part of their Asian expansion.

With that said, AA shouldn't even think about HKG until they complete any planned bankruptcy as well as introduce a new F and J product.
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Gemuser
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:04 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
. I also fully expect them to share or possibly take over the DFW-SYD route.
Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 8):
along with ICN & SYD needs to be part of their Asian expansion.

In the case of Sydney - WHY? What would AA gain from such a move, over and above the profit they currently get?

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LAXdude1023
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:46 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
expect them to share or possibly take over the DFW-SYD route.

AA publicly stated that Australia isnt in their plans.

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):

There have been rumors surrounding DFW-HKG at some point. I dont know how substantial they are or a timeline, but I think DFW-HKG will be a reality at some point. If nothing else with a 787 in 5 years, but maybe with a 77W in 2-3 years.

I cant see them going up against CX at LAX or CX/UA at ORD. DFW is the obvious choice. Given that there is no service between HKG and the Southern states, its not a bad bet. DFW-HKG has a decent sized local market as well (not huge, but not small either).
It is what it is...
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:48 pm

Quoting netjetsintl (Reply 5):
Out of DFW they would have to rely solely on connecting traffic.

Solely? Not at all. There is substantial demand for DFW-HKG O&D traffic.
 
commavia
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:11 pm

I agree AA should, and I think and hope AA will, fly to HKG in the future.

As others have suggested, I think the most obvious choice that makes the most sense for AA's network is DFW. The market between Texas and China is large and growing, and the plethora of connections a route like that would provide - at both ends - would be impressive. I think either a 77W in the nearer-term or eventually a 787 would make sense.

I don't think AA needs nor wants to fly LAX-HKG - Cathay already dominates the route and has an impressive franchise in the market; there's simply no reason for AA to mess with that. I think AA would much prefer to just have an ATI/JV with Cathay, but I don't think Cathay will go for that.

ORD-HKG may be a different story - I think that market could support another flight - not sure if it would be Cathay or AA. A morning ORD departure and later afternoon HKG departure would greatly compliment Cathay's existing schedule, and for that schedule, AA would make more sense from an aircraft scheduling/positioning standpoint - something along the lines of:

AA ORD 1000 HKG 1435 +1 77W
CX ORD 1525 HKG 2000 +1 77W

CX ORD 1145 HKG 1345 77W
AA ORD 1630 HKG 1830 77W

But alas, knowing AA, I don't see it happening. But I do still agree that DFW-HKG should and will eventually happen as long as Cathay stays in oneworld. I also do think that could and should be part of a broader AA expansion into East Asia, which should include DFW-ICN, LAX-KIX, and possible LAX-NGO, as well as a JAL 787 SEA-NRT.
 
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:28 pm

Quoting dfwrevolution (Reply 11):

Solely? Not at all. There is substantial demand for DFW-HKG O&D traffic.

Very true. But a 77W (being the only a/c they'll have that can do that run) is a lot of airplane to fill, so they really would be best served to time the flight with the most dense arrival banks they can.

I do not see this happening for at least two years or more, given the issues WRT ULH flying and the flight crews, anyway. But when it does, it will be a great route for them I'm sure.


Also, I agree with the need for starting up ICN as well, but even with the huge Korean population we have here, KE still seems to balk at going daily. As well, AA has no alliance partner there, so there will be some trouble getting real traction out of the route. That said, twice or thrice weekly should be doable, I would think.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:29 pm

Quoting dfwrevolution (Reply 11):
There is substantial demand for DFW-HKG O&D traffic.

Its the one market in China that DFW generates more O&D to than IAH (its about 1.5 times larger).
It is what it is...
 
washingtonian
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:38 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
DFW-SYD route.

Could the 77W do DFW-SYD nonstop without penalties?
 
United Airline
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:04 pm

UA and AA should just take the intiative and buy the A380 and make it super luxurious and provide top top service. By then the customers will come. 
 
qf002
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:22 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 8):
SYD

No way. Why would you when you're on the verge of Australia's dominant airline (QF) who have half a dozen daily flights through LAX (plus HNL, DFW and JFK) and are widely accepted as being a superior airline to your own? Waste of an aircraft that I'm sure will be in high demand within their fleet...

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
ORD-HKG may be a different story - I think that market could support another flight - not sure if it would be Cathay or AA.

Not yet -- it's already doubled in the last month. Maybe in 12+ months down the track once CX have developed a strong presence, and at that stage I think it's CX's game. AA would be a confusing addition IMO, and are better off paralleling CX's services from ORD with their own from DFW.

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 15):
Could the 77W do DFW-SYD nonstop without penalties?

No. The range gain isn't all that substantial over the 744ER which goes via BNE with a reduced payload so I doubt it would be make it all the way to SYD without massive penalties.
 
lax777lr
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:42 pm

It's an interesting juncture for AA in OW with regards to who does the long haul hub-to-hub flying. Qantas brings SYD to DFW. CX brings HKG to ORD. I think AA needs take the ball and open up DFW-HKG when they have the capability to do so. I would hate to see them shrink to being a NA feeder to OW partners. Yes, I am reaching a bit here in long-term possibilities.  
 
airbazar
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 6:10 pm

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 13):
Very true. But a 77W (being the only a/c they'll have that can do that run) is a lot of airplane to fill, so they really would be best served to time the flight with the most dense arrival banks they can.

I don't think so. Not only is there strong O&D demand for it, but I suspect AA would be able to gather connections from Florida and Latin America. As passenger, if your choices of connecting city were JFK, ORD, LAX, or DFW, which one would you chose?
 
dfwexecplat
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:06 pm

This same topic has been discussed incessantly....is it really necessary to start a new thread on this same topic every week? DFW-HKG/SYD..
 
commavia
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:12 pm

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 13):
Very true. But a 77W (being the only a/c they'll have that can do that run) is a lot of airplane to fill, so they really would be best served to time the flight with the most dense arrival banks they can.

The local market is there, and the connections are definitely there. I think a 77W could work in this market.

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 13):
Also, I agree with the need for starting up ICN as well, but even with the huge Korean population we have here, KE still seems to balk at going daily. As well, AA has no alliance partner there, so there will be some trouble getting real traction out of the route. That said, twice or thrice weekly should be doable, I would think.

AA generally doesn't do things 2-3x weekly, and I highly doubt they would open up a station and market with such an incredible long stage length with such a low frequency. Some have suggested that with KE now so relatively strong in the DFW market, there may no longer be room for AA - that may well be right. But - call me crazy (most people usually do) - I still think AA could make a daily 777 DFW-ICN work.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 17):
Not yet -- it's already doubled in the last month. Maybe in 12+ months down the track once CX have developed a strong presence, and at that stage I think it's CX's game. AA would be a confusing addition IMO, and are better off paralleling CX's services from ORD with their own from DFW.

I agree - I'm talking in the future, not now. But I do think AA/CX could support 2x daily ORD-HKG - the local market is substantial, with important business links, and the two hubs on either end are both massive. A second daily flight with the schedule I proposed above makes the most sense to me - and because of that schedule, AA would make more sense. Just hypothetical, though - probably never happen.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
As passenger, if your choices of connecting city were JFK, ORD, LAX, or DFW, which one would you chose?

   Any day of the week.
 
HKG212
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:56 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
as long as Cathay stays in oneworld.

Why would CX leave OneWorld? Moving to Star will lose them the competitive advantage against most major Asian carriers, inlcuding SQ, TG, NH and OZ, and on the US-HKG market against UA (i'm sure UA would object to CX joining as they will instantly lose market share to their superior product). SkyTeam would make no sense with two of China's 3 major carriers now in that allicance. If you are referring to their part ownership by Star member CA, I wouldn't read much into it unless CA takes CX over at some point, which is highly unlikely. In which case I would argue: as long as CX remains in the rational hands of Swire, it will stay in OW.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
I suspect AA would be able to gather connections from Florida and Latin America.

The Latin American link is vital, but as I have said in a different thread, once CX starts flying to MAD, the rationale to transfer via the US will largely evaporate.
 
dumbell2424
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:16 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
UA and AA should just take the intiative and buy the A380 and make it super luxurious and provide top top service. By then the customers will come. 

Yeah........no.

That would effectively kill off either airline.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:20 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
I cant see them going up against CX at LAX or CX/UA at ORD. DFW is the obvious choice. Given that there is no service between HKG and the Southern states, its not a bad bet. DFW-HKG has a decent sized local market as well (not huge, but not small either).

What about the market between HKG and Central/South America? DFW could certainly cater to that as well.

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 13):

Very true. But a 77W (being the only a/c they'll have that can do that run) is a lot of airplane to fill, so they really would be best served to time the flight with the most dense arrival banks they can.

Given AA's low seat count, AA can certainly fly DFW-HKG with excellent payload/cargo. That being said, I think AA will probably serve B77W flights on "mature/trunk routes".

Quoting commavia (Reply 21):
But I do think AA/CX could support 2x daily ORD-HKG -

With the UA flight, that would be 3X/daily ORD-HKG. I don't see the market large enough for 3x/daily flights.

Quoting dfwexecplat (Reply 20):
This same topic has been discussed incessantly....is it really necessary to start a new thread on this same topic every week? DFW-HKG/SYD..

Why do you bother to respond then?    No one is forcing you to participate on this thread..  
"Up the Irons!"
 
gigneil
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:18 pm

Quoting dumbell2424 (Reply 23):
That would effectively kill off either airline.

Hardly.

NS
 
MAH4546
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:15 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 7):
expect them to share or possibly take over the DFW-SYD route.

AA publicly stated that Australia isnt in their plans.

I wouldn't put much weight on that statement. I would not be surprised to see AA in Sydney in 2013-14 depending on how ATI with Qantas develops.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
AA publicly stated that Australia isnt in their plans.
Quoting dfwrevolution (Reply 11):

Quoting netjetsintl (Reply 5):
Out of DFW they would have to rely solely on connecting traffic.

Solely? Not at all. There is substantial demand for DFW-HKG O&D traffic.


It is not a huge market, but the market is big enough that it will see good stimulation and the connections will be great. DFWHKG will work, but local demand won't drive it. It is bigger than IAHHKG and IADHKG, but smaller than ATLHKG and MIAHKG. DFWHKG is smaller than a lot of other DFW-Asia markets. It is even smaller than Dallas-Hyderabad.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 22):
The Latin American link is vital, but as I have said in a different thread, once CX starts flying to MAD, the rationale to transfer via the US will largely evaporate.

No, it won't. Biggest myth prepetauted here on A.net is that LatAm-Asia traffic doesn't connect in the U.S. It does, by and large. More than 75% of Asia-LatAm traffic connects via North America, plain and simple.
a.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:29 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
It is even smaller than Dallas-Hyderabad

That doesnt surprise me. DFW-HYD/BLR are tech markets.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
It is not a huge market, but the market is big enough that it will see good stimulation and the connections will be great.

Thats what I think too. Its a market that I believe would mature and grow with a flight. Even as it is now, the local market is big enough to suplement a flight along with connections.
It is what it is...
 
Gemuser
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:48 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
AA publicly stated that Australia isnt in their plans.

I wouldn't put much weight on that statement. I would not be surprised to see AA in Sydney in 2013-14 depending on how ATI with Qantas develops.

While AA DOES have bi-lateral rights to serve Australia, doing so would invalidate Australian approval (at least) for the Joint Business Agreement (JBA) with Qantas, as the approval was based on the fact than QF & AA were not and NOT LIKELY to be competitors for the life of the approval.

So the first real indication of AAs intention to fly its own metal to Australia will be either a notice of termination of the JBA OR an application for a new JBA. (IMHO the change would be too great for a variation to the current approval).
I think either is unlikely as I can't see the profit in it for AA.

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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:59 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 17):
No way. Why would you when you're on the verge of Australia's dominant airline (QF) who have half a dozen daily flights through LAX (plus HNL, DFW and JFK) and are widely accepted as being a superior airline to your own? Waste of an aircraft that I'm sure will be in high demand within their fleet...

Using that logic, AA shouldn't fly to LHR or NRT due to BA and JL having a superior product than AA. Also, AA and QF will have a JV/ATI established by that point so the profit point is moot.

From a strategic and competitive standpoint, AA really needs its own metal flying to places like HKG, ICN, and SYD out of LAX. However, You will also notice that I said such routes should not be started until after any bankruptcy plans, and new F/J product is installed.

What would happen to AA's latin american network if they took the same "our partner flies there so we won't" approach when the LATAM merger is complete?

Everyone complains about AA not having an Asian network, then turn around saying how AA shouldn't fly here or there because a OW partner already flies that route. AA needs to start thinking about AA.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
commavia
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:14 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
Using that logic, AA shouldn't fly to LHR or NRT due to BA and JL having a superior product than AA. Also, AA and QF will have a JV/ATI established by that point so the profit point is moot.

It's not the same comparison. I don't really see any substantive strategic need for AA to fly its own metal to SYD, short of perhaps aircraft scheduling on the DFW-SYD route. There is certainly no reason for AA to fly LAX-SYD when QF is already the 800 lb gorilla on the route, and provides plenty of lift in the market that AA will soon be sharing revenue on.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
From a strategic and competitive standpoint, AA really needs its own metal flying to places like HKG, ICN, and SYD out of LAX.

I agree that AA does need to be flying its own planes to HKG and ICN (though not SYD), but in all cases not from LAX. Again - the LAX-HKG market is huge but CX is the 800 lb gorilla with lower costs, better service, and a dominant market position. Why would AA need to augment and/or compete with that? As for ICN - there is no point in AA attempting LAX-ICN up against KE's massive presence (and, again, lower costs and better service). I think the more appropriate AA play in HKG is a daily 77W from DFW, and for ICN is a daily 777 from DFW.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
However, You will also notice that I said such routes should not be started until after any bankruptcy plans, and new F/J product is installed.

I'm with you on an improved F/J product, but I'm not sure bankruptcy is necessarily required.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
What would happen to AA's latin american network if they took the same "our partner flies there so we won't" approach when the LATAM merger is complete?

One big difference: in the Latin America market, AA is the 800 lb gorilla. Because of the strength and dominance of the MIA hub, AA is a massive force to be reckoned with and they are the other airline that other carriers have trouble competing with. That is not the case for LAX-Asia, where much of the capacity and traffic is handled by foreign carriers with lower costs, better service, and deeper access to VFR (and business) traffic flows.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
AA needs to start thinking about AA.

I agree that AA needs to do what's in its best interests financially and strategically, but in some cases that does, indeed, mean letting a partner do the flying rather than AA itself.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:58 am

There have been rumours in CX that DFW could be the next US city. Rumours also about AA and CX thrashing out an agreement about it. CX obviously want codesharing out of DFW on AA flights and AA want CX promises about a restriction to the number of flights and for the 'old' business class to do the route for a certain time period before AA joins CX on the route as well. As I say, all rumours at this stage.
 
qf002
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:43 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
I wouldn't put much weight on that statement. I would not be surprised to see AA in Sydney in 2013-14 depending on how ATI with Qantas develops.

The ATI specifically excludes AA flying to SYD under it. If AA wanted to fly to SYD within the life of this agreement then they'd have to do it outside the JV with QF, and that just wouldn't work.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
Quoting qf002 (Reply 17):
No way. Why would you when you're on the verge of Australia's dominant airline (QF) who have half a dozen daily flights through LAX (plus HNL, DFW and JFK) and are widely accepted as being a superior airline to your own? Waste of an aircraft that I'm sure will be in high demand within their fleet...

Using that logic, AA shouldn't fly to LHR or NRT due to BA and JL having a superior product than AA. Also, AA and QF will have a JV/ATI established by that point so the profit point is moot.
Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
It's not the same comparison. I don't really see any substantive strategic need for AA to fly its own metal to SYD,

   You'll find that they are very, very different examples. The business market between Australia and North America comes predominantly from Australia, whereas the market between the US and Europe/Japan is far more evenly balanced between both sides of the JV. Australian consumers have very negative perceptions of American carriers (quite rightly IMO) and would likely shy away from AA in comparison to the QF brand, which they know/trust. Just look at DL and the fact that they apparently have poor loadings, and rely on their cargo agreements on their SYD route.

Also the profit point is still key. If the JV can make more money flying QF aircraft then that's what it will do. Profit is the single purpose of the whole exercise, and to say it's 'moot' is ridiculous. In any case, AA operating to Australia would have to be outside of the JV.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
From a strategic and competitive standpoint, AA really needs its own metal flying to places like HKG, ICN, and SYD out of LAX. However, You will also notice that I said such routes should not be started until after any bankruptcy plans, and new F/J product is installed.

Why? I can understand ICN and HKG (and 100% agree with you there), but what does flying their own metal to SYD add to their network? It's a route that uses a lot of aircraft for the amount of money you stand to make, and AA has happily stuck with their arrangement with QF for a long time now, making their partnership more official with the new JV. In any case, if you want them to wait for years while debating bankruptcy and installing (well actually putting together) a new product then they haven't got a hope -- they need to act now to ICN and HKG.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
What would happen to AA's latin american network if they took the same "our partner flies there so we won't" approach when the LATAM merger is complete?

Everyone complains about AA not having an Asian network, then turn around saying how AA shouldn't fly here or there because a OW partner already flies that route. AA needs to start thinking about AA.

It would disappear. But that's a different situation, again. For starters the market is split more evenly across both ends (if anything I'd imagine it's probably more USA heavy, but I'm not really sure), and both airlines already fly those routes. AA entering into a market already very comprehensively served under a JV with a long term partner airlines, simply mimicking a route that they already service is very different to your BA/JL/LA examples, where both airlines already exist in those markets.
 
United Airline
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:25 am

Quoting dumbell2424 (Reply 23):
Yeah........no.

That would effectively kill off either airline.

Why? In the 90s UA was considered as top top and they did very well.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
What about the market between HKG and Central/South America? DFW could certainly cater to that as well.

Yes indeed
 
Gemuser
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:11 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 32):
If AA wanted to fly to SYD within the life of this agreement then they'd have to do it outside the JV with QF

AA flying to SYD would kill the Australian government approval for the JBA. They MAY be able to get another one approved, but the current one would be dead.

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qf002
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:38 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 34):
AA flying to SYD would kill the Australian government approval for the JBA.

Really? I was under the impression that airlines could operate outside of JV agreements (or similar) if they had the necessary clearance/permissions to do so. You wouldn't want to, so it's never been done, but I think that technically they can (though I could easily be wrong -- this is just something that someone explained to me years ago)...
 
MAH4546
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:40 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 32):
The ATI specifically excludes AA flying to SYD under it. If AA wanted to fly to SYD within the life of this agreement then they'd have to do it outside the JV with QF, and that just wouldn't work.

No, it doesn't. AA gave up no rights to fly to Australia. All it gave - and I have read the application - is a forward, non-binding statement that it current does not intend to fly to Australia. AA can serve Australia without consequence in the future.

As AA currently does not fly to Australia, if it chose to it would need to apply to fly there, but it would be rolled into e JBA with Qantas, no different than the Delta/Virgin Australia deal.

It's ridiculous people keep trying to make blatantly false statements that AA is not allowed to fly to Australia all of the sudden. It is, and it can do so in JBA with Qantas.
a.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:00 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
No, it doesn't. AA gave up no rights to fly to Australia. All it gave - and I have read the application - is a forward, non-binding statement that it current does not intend to fly to Australia. AA can serve Australia without consequence in the future.

The consequence if AA was to start its own service to Australia would be the likely revocation of Australian approval of the JBA because the ACCC's finding was that there were no competition concerns because AA & QF did not compete on Australia-USA routes. The decision is at:
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index...ml/itemId/987619/fromItemId/278039 .
If they were to compete then the approval would have to be revisited and very possibly the JBA would be revoked.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
It's ridiculous people keep trying to make blatantly false statements that AA is not allowed to fly to Australia all of the sudden.

Who said they were not allowed to fly to Australia? I didn't, neither qf002. We were both talking about the JBA.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
and it can do so in JBA with Qantas

No it can't, under the current approval, referred to above. Of course a new approval could be applied for, but couldn't be assumed.

IMHO this whole question of AA flying its own metal to Australia is a complete furphy! QF & AA would NOT have set up the JBA the way they did if their was any intention for it to happen within the next five years (the life of the approval). After that, of course, all bets are off and, also of course, the current situation could change, but that can not be known at the present time.

After all that the question still remains that NOBODY has answered, why would AA do such a thing? How could it be more profitable for them? The cost of using two B77Ws for no revenue gain seems silly to me. (I am assuming that it wouldn't, but we don't really know as that information was not released). But even if it did the gain would have to offset the capital cost of two B77Ws, that seems unlikely.

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HKG212
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:51 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
No, it won't. Biggest myth prepetauted here on A.net is that LatAm-Asia traffic doesn't connect in the U.S. It does, by and large. More than 75% of Asia-LatAm traffic connects via North America, plain and simple.

Not sure where you get the 75% figure -- seems a bit high to me. I am well aware of these connections, being a frequent user myself, but holding a US passport, an APEC card, and elite access makes such connections relatively easy for me. For "normal" Asians such transfers require a US transit visa, which is a huge hassle, and that's before you even get to the US airport with its immigration lines, surly security checks, and in some airports the need to claim and recheck your baggage. Flights via Europe are a bit shorter, and the hassle factor minimal due to international in-transit zones.

The US, especially AA, does offer superior frequency and access to Latin American markets. Perhaps it's time, 10 years after 9/11, to bring back and in fact expand in-transit facilities in the US (DFW and I believe MIA have one built in). AA will be the biggest beneficiary of such a change.
 
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:55 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
I have read the application


But you haven't read the JBA itself. That is a confidential and restricted document that has been seen by QF, AA and the regulators. The application is helpful, but can only be read in association with comments from the two companies, which have all said that AA is not flying to Australia!

Quoting gemuser (Reply 37):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
It's ridiculous people keep trying to make blatantly false statements that AA is not allowed to fly to Australia all of the sudden.

Who said they were not allowed to fly to Australia? I didn't, neither qf002. We were both talking about the JBA.
Quoting gemuser (Reply 37):
No it can't, under the current approval, referred to above. Of course a new approval could be applied for, but couldn't be assumed.

   AA can do whatever it wants under the Open Skies agreement -- they could fly a direct AZO-HBA service if they wanted to. The JBA does not cover any AA flights from the US to Australia. That is simple and plain fact. The JBA is based and approved on the pretense that (and this is a direct quote):

"Qantas will operate Trans-Pacific services and connecting services in Australia and Trans-Tasman on behalf of the Proposed JBA. AA will operate connecting services in the United States, Canada and Mexico"

AA across the Pacific would fall outside these guidelines and is hence not covered. As gemuser so superbly said, the JBA would likely have been rebuked if these guidelines had not been set.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 37):
why would AA do such a thing?

         Bang on! I think I've pointed this out twice in this thread and still no response...
 
wn700driver
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:03 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 19):

I don't think so. Not only is there strong O&D demand for it, but I suspect AA would be able to gather connections from Florida and Latin America. As passenger, if your choices of connecting city were JFK, ORD, LAX, or DFW, which one would you chose?

I'm guessing you're being rhetorical,  , but yes, Mighty 'D is the best choice among those, and not by a little bit. I really can't even see how JFK would be a real connection option anyway, the geography doesn't look right for that.

I do believe that HKG can generate strong O&D from just about any major american city, and we're obviously no exception. And seeing the obvious OW connection power, it is a little strange that somebody, ahem CX, isn't already on this come to think of it...

Quoting commavia (Reply 21):

AA generally doesn't do things 2-3x weekly, and I highly doubt they would open up a station and market with such an incredible long stage length with such a low frequency. Some have suggested that with KE now so relatively strong in the DFW market, there may no longer be room for AA - that may well be right. But - call me crazy (most people usually do) - I still think AA could make a daily 777 DFW-ICN work

No, you're right, they really don't. I just think with KE bringing in their heavies (and not even daily) that there just isn't enough for that and an AA 77E/77W on a daily basis. Of course, I suppose AA could downgauge to just a 77E on a light day I suppose, but even with that loss, I guess that's still a lot of metal for the route.

Perhaps though, market exposure, and OW connections through DFW could make it work out better. Thinking as I type, I am also realizing that KE does rely on O&D for their trips, don't they. I guess I Can see how AA could maybe back-fill even a 77E with connections. Very Interesting...
Base not your happiness on the deeds of others, for what is given can be taken away. No Hope = No Fear
 
cx828
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:38 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
With the UA flight, that would be 3X/daily ORD-HKG. I don't see the market large enough for 3x/daily flights.

With YYZ still can support 3 daily to HK, two by CX and one by AC, i think ORD can definitely support 3 daily.


By the way, can cx 77W fly from DFW-HKG without penalty?? I know it is ok for the other way around.
 
UAL777UK
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:43 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
UA and AA should just take the intiative and buy the A380 and make it super luxurious and provide top top service. By then the customers will come

You love the big birds dont you. If you ran CX you would have them flying A380's or 747's domestically!  

All joking aside, If we do see AA going to HKG, I only see them coming from DFW. I see no reason for them now to fly from ORD (although they should have been doing that years ago!) and the same goes for LAX, where CX has the market tied up.
 
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:58 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 39):
But you haven't read the JBA itself. That is a confidential and restricted document that has been seen by QF, AA and the regulators. The application is helpful, but can only be read in association with comments from the two companies, which have all said that AA is not flying to Australia!

Absolutely not confidential. That is illegal in the United States. The document is available online at www.dot.gov.

Even if assume that you are right in your interpretation, it's irrelevant. It would take nothing more than a quick application for AA and QF to be approved. It's not even a question of "if" approval would be granted - it would be.

[Edited 2011-09-26 14:00:28]
a.
 
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:01 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
Absolutely not confidential. That is illegal in the United States. The document is available online at www.dot.gov.

Well it's confidential in Australia -- I'd be interested to read through the JBA itself but can't seem to find anything on the link you provided (I can't say I'm familiar with the dot site) -- did you know where it was on their site?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 43):
Even if assume that you are right in your interpretation, it's irrelevant. It would take nothing more than a quick application for AA and QF to be approved. It's not even a question of "if" approval would be granted - it would be.

What is that based on though? Both gemuser and myself have referred to the application and the statements the ACCC have made that show that this decision is based on the fact that there is no overlap/competition that exists between QF and AA. In the very short statements the ACCC has made, this has been the consistent point that they have pushed -- it's a different situation to DL/VA because they are both underdogs. The ACCC would not approve an alliance between the biggest carrier on the route and their close partner if both were flying across the Pacific. That's just the nature of what the ACCC do (ie QF-NZ blocked because of dominance etc).
 
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:56 pm

Quoting cx828 (Reply 41):
With YYZ still can support 3 daily to HK, two by CX and one by AC, i think ORD can definitely support 3 daily.

I am trying to put my finger on where/from what you are drawing this comparison between Toronto and Chicago.....

I mean they're both upper midwest cities with a lot of VFR traffic, but there may be a few differences.

CX has been flying to YYZ for a long time. I'd imagine there are 2X daily flights both because it has built up a robust following (as a OW carrier in a Star-dominated market) and the connection opportunities beyond HKG throughout SE Asia

I feel like ex-ORD passengers still have plenty of options via UA (NRT hub) or via SFO. UA also had a monopoly on ORDHKG for a very, very long time before another carrier stepped in (hardly a month ago). Perhaps there could still be room for a 3rd daily flight, but bear in mind ULH are EXTREMELY difficult to make profits on, esp in times like these.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Tue Sep 27, 2011 2:13 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 45):
CX has been flying to YYZ for a long time. I'd imagine there are 2X daily flights both because it has built up a robust following (as a OW carrier in a Star-dominated market) and the connection opportunities beyond HKG throughout SE Asia

YYZ-HKG is HUGE. They really dont need anything other than O&D at YYZ to make those flights work.
It is what it is...
 
DFWEagle
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Tue Sep 27, 2011 2:38 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 44):
What is that based on though? Both gemuser and myself have referred to the application and the statements the ACCC have made that show that this decision is based on the fact that there is no overlap/competition that exists between QF and AA. In the very short statements the ACCC has made, this has been the consistent point that they have pushed -- it's a different situation to DL/VA because they are both underdogs. The ACCC would not approve an alliance between the biggest carrier on the route and their close partner if both were flying across the Pacific. That's just the nature of what the ACCC do (ie QF-NZ blocked because of dominance etc).

You are exactly right with this, but it seems you can't see the forest for the trees.

AA and QF do not compete with each other in the first place without the JBA, so its approval does not reduce the level of competition below its present state. In addition, the JBA application stated that without the JBA, AA would be unlikely to serve Australia on its own metal in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the logic is that approval of the JBA does not reduce current or potential future competition in the market.

If AA starts service to Australia as part of the joint venture, they would not be competing with Qantas, they would be co-operating with each other and acting as a single competitor.

Firstly, this is under completely different circumstances than it would be if AA/QF were competing and certainly does not indicate that AA could sustain Australia service as a standalone competitor. Therefore, there would not be any increased competition if the JBA was terminated because AA would leave the market; they would only be in it in the first place because of the JBA.

Secondly, in this situation (under a JBA), it makes no difference to the level of overall market competition whether AA or QF is flying specific routes because they are acting as a single competitor, and so it is of no concern to competition regulators.

The logic of the competition authorities is that AA does not serve Australia now and would not find it commercially viable to do so without the JBA. Therefore, whatever AA/QF decide to do under the JBA, it does not harm current/potential competition between them. There is no reason or benefit for either of the two regulators to restrict the flexibility of the JBA partners from planning their routes/services to maximise efficiency, profitability and to help realise the public benefits of the JBA (new travel options, routes, better fares etc.).
Ryan / HKG
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:53 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 46):
YYZ-HKG is HUGE. They really dont need anything other than O&D at YYZ to make those flights work.

I'd imagine so. Big financial centers. Would have guessed connecting traffic was a large component, too. But perhaps this comes more on the YYZ side, and via Air Canada?

I still think it will be some time before ORDHKG goes 3X, and if it does, I would put more money on a second daily CX flight as opposed to an AA flight. I agree with posters who have said if AA goes to HKG, it will be from DFW, not LAX or ORD.

I've heard rumors the CX flight to ORD is doing quite well. I saw it landing the other day.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Will AA Fly To HKG?

Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:42 am

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 47):
You are exactly right with this, but it seems you can't see the forest for the trees.

IMHO you are not seeing the trees for the forrest!

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 47):
AA and QF do not compete with each other in the first place without the JBA, so its approval does not reduce the level of competition below its present state. In addition, the JBA application stated that without the JBA, AA would be unlikely to serve Australia on its own metal in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the logic is that approval of the JBA does not reduce current or potential future competition in the market.

Agree

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 47):
If AA starts service to Australia as part of the joint venture, they would not be competing with Qantas, they would be co-operating with each other and acting as a single competitor.

This is the problem, they CAN NOT do this, because the terms of approval don't permit it. If AA wanted to fly to Australia UNDER the JBA then a variation or a new approval (more likely IMHO) would be required. Would they get such approval (or variation)? I don't know but it would not be the trivial exercise some posters above seem to think it would be. As qf002 says above the ACCC is tricky to predict. It is not a transportation agency as the US regulator is, it is an agency of the Treasury, the main economic manager of the economy, which is VERY pro competition. It MAY see AA starting its own services to Australia as an indication that the JBA is no longer required, who knows?

Anyway as I said above I don't believe QF or AA expect AA to start its own services to Australia during the life of the current approval or they would have included the possibility in their application.

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