globalflyer
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Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:05 pm

After announcing that IT, AB and MH would join by 2012 into the alliance, I was curious to see if any others are on the horizon? I know that there is a big gap for the African and China mainland markets so I wondered if maybe AT, TU or AH in Northern Africa or HU in China maybe considered candidates?
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flyby519
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:37 pm

Likelyhood of WS, B6, or US on the horizon as well?
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SCL767
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:58 pm

Perhaps LAN's newest passenger affiliate LAN Colombia will become a oneworld affiliate member during 2012.


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globalflyer
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:39 pm

I would think that LAN Colombia would join after the integration. Are all LA subsidiaries apart of the alliance? I do not see US joining unless a merger with AA occurred which I think is unlikely and I know discussed to death here. B6 would be a great fit as would WS. But with LH having shares in B6 I bet they would throw up a red flag. It appears that WS is following AS and going the code share route.

I would love to see another Gulf carrier (EY) to join alongside RJ, but at the moment I do not see EK/EY/QR joining any alliance? I fully expect that with the JJ/LA merger that oneworld will win this battle.
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jacobin777
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:50 pm

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 3):
But with LH having shares in B6 I bet they would throw up a red flag

A coupe of things. LH's investment wouldn't really have too much to do with where B6 goes. In fact, if it helps B6 to become more profitable, LH would be up for it as it would increase their ROI.   

Add to this:

"UPDATE: Lufthansa CEO Not Ruling Out A Sale Of Stake In JetBlue "

-Wall St. Journal (google it)

IIRC, IAG's Walsh has also stated that IAG might make an investment into B6.

globalflyer (Reply 3):
I would love to see another Gulf carrier (EY) to join alongside RJ,


I don't see EY joining OneWorld anytime soon. GF would probably be a better bet. I could even see IAG taking an investment in GF as the govt. wants to privatize it.

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 3):
but at the moment I do not see EK/EY/QR joining any alliance?

I agree. I see maybe (and I use that word lightly) QR joining Star but that's about it for now.
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SCL767
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 5:37 pm

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 3):
Are all LA subsidiaries apart of the alliance?

Yes, with the exception of Aerovías de Integración Regional S.A. (LAN Colombia). LAN Airlines S.A. is a full member of the oneworld alliance.

LAN oneworld affiliate members:

LAN Argentina
LAN Ecuador
LAN Express
LAN Perú S.A.

[Edited 2011-10-13 10:38:45]
 
staralliance85
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:06 pm

My best guess is that B6 and EY will eventually join Oneworld but Not anytime soon. AS and HU is going to be a huge bidding war between Oneworld and Skyteam. My question is once the LAN-TAM merger is complete who are they going to go to Star or Oneworld? If LAN-tAm joins the Star Alliance it would be a Huge loss for Oneworld and the Star Alliance would dominate the World!!
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cmb320
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:12 pm

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):
AS and HU is going to be a huge bidding war between Oneworld and Skyteam

I would be very surprised, considering how closely DL and AS cooperate, that AS would join OneWorld over SkyTeam.
 
lhr380
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:14 pm

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):

From everything thats come out, and looking at all the facts, they would be stupid not to stick with OW. They gain more out of a Oneworld package then they ever would with Star.

AS I dont see coming into the alliance unless they have a sudden massive change in the way they run there operation. They codeshare and interline with almost anyone and seem to do very well out of it.
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PEET7G
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:46 am

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):

EY would be a great addition for OW and greatly increase the competitiveness for EY against EK, but I feel EY needs OW more than the other way around  
HU would be the much needed boost for OW's presence in China, however I am really curious how it would work out for Hainan as Hainan Group. I think CX would be furious to see HK in OW :P
Peet7G
 
qf002
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:27 am

Any chance of JQ becoming an affiliate member? They seem to like being involved yet resist actually joining/officiating anything.
 
aircanada014
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:03 am

[

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):
My best guess is that B6 and EY will eventually join Oneworld but Not anytime soon. AS and HU is going to be a huge bidding war between Oneworld and Skyteam. My question is once the LAN-TAM merger is complete who are they going to go to Star or Oneworld? If LAN-tAm joins the Star Alliance it would be a Huge loss for Oneworld and the Star Alliance would dominate the World!!

from all previous posts about LAN-TAM pre merger the finger points toward Oneworld, it will be a big loss for Star and huge gain for Oneworld..Since LAN is taking TAM it makes sense it will go toward Oneworld but if it were TAM taking over LAN then it most likely head toward Star.
 
SomedayTrijet
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:16 am

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):
AS and HU is going to be a huge bidding war between Oneworld and Skyteam.

I would be very surprised if Skyteam would want HU. ´They already have China Southern, China Eastern and soon Xiamen Airlines, so HU wouldn't bring anything significant to Skyteam. Would just become a mess of overlapping routes.
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flythere
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:27 am

Quoting globalflyer (Thread starter):
After announcing that IT, AB and MH would join by 2012 into the alliance, I was curious to see if any others are on the horizon? I know that there is a big gap for the African and China mainland markets so I wondered if maybe AT, TU or AH in Northern Africa or HU in China maybe considered candidates?

JJ         

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):
HU is going to be a huge bidding war between Oneworld and Skyteam.

3 Skyteam carriers in mainland China? Never!
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 11:18 am

Personally, I would like to see IAG make a move for the remaining ownership of AZ(AF controls 25%). If not AZ, then the next best thing would be for IG as they recently merged with Air Italy. That would place OW in second place in the Italian market. However, IG needs some network, fleet, and service adjustments. -- Nothing BA couldn't tackle within a few months.

As far as Africa is concerned, OW needs to capture or have a serious presence in Nigeria. I proposed Arik Air in previous discussions, only to attract a lot of naysayers. However, compared to AT or TU, Arik's LOS hub is more centrally located and would serve intra-Africa traffic far better than CAS or TUN.

Sponsoring Arik would constitute organic growth as they are not ready to join any big alliance yet. BA used to be fairly active in recruiting franchises in Africa. I wish they would return to that.

Another possible candidate would be UL. They have publicly stated that they are only interested in OW or *A.

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 3):
But with LH having shares in B6 I bet they would throw up a red flag.

Why do people keep spewing this nonsense. LH only holds 19% of B6, so they have no ability to stop B6 from joining OW.

Quoting CMB320 (Reply 7):
I would be very surprised, considering how closely DL and AS cooperate, that AS would join OneWorld over SkyTeam.

Side agreements would still be possible if AS joined OW, but I can never see a situation where AS totally turns down OW just to join Skyteam.

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):
My question is once the LAN-TAM merger is complete who are they going to go to Star or Oneworld?

Part of the Chilean ruling was that LATAM can not be in the same alliance as TACA and Avianca. So unless *A is willing to kick them to the curb, JJ can not be a member of Star.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 9):
HU would be the much needed boost for OW's presence in China, however I am really curious how it would work out for Hainan as Hainan Group. I think CX would be furious to see HK in OW :

You are correct in saying CX would be furious. As a way around this animosity, I have proposed in previous threads that HU sell HK to CX, and the two form an intense JV for mainland routes. I'm not sure if the chinese govt would allow a merger between the two. They seem to have this anti-CX mentality going.
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delta2ual
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:28 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 2):
Perhaps LAN's newest passenger affiliate LAN Colombia will become a oneworld affiliate member during 2012.

Yes it will.

Quoting aircanada014 (Reply 11):
from all previous posts about LAN-TAM pre merger the finger points toward Oneworld, it will be a big loss for Star and huge gain for Oneworld..Since LAN is taking TAM it makes sense it will go toward Oneworld but if it were TAM taking over LAN then it most likely head toward Star.

Star won't get LATAM; they already have (or will have) Avianca-TACA, and COPA. I believe GOL will go to SkyTeam.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 14):
Personally, I would like to see IAG make a move for the remaining ownership of AZ(AF controls 25%).

I really doubt that will happen without AF/KL putting up a serious fight. Plus, I think the JV with DL,AF/KL will ensure the sale goes to AF. But, this is the airline industry, and stranger things have happened.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:10 pm

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 15):
I believe GOL will go to SkyTeam

I see no benefit in choosing ST over *A. That would be a bad move on G3's part.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 15):
Plus, I think the JV with DL,AF/KL will ensure the sale goes to AF.

Nothing is ensured. The JV would obviously be dismantled in the event IAG won the bidding war. As things are currently set up, nothing prevents IAG from buying AZ. Even if IAG lost, at least they would force AF to spend a large amount of capital 

I think IAG will run up against some serious opposition by the EU govt in any attempt to buy TP. I would rather them go for AZ instead as there is no govt ownership involved and there should be no competition issues.
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delta2ual
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:24 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 16):
I see no benefit in choosing ST over *A. That would be a bad move on G3's part.

Except GOL already codeshares with DL,AF,KL & Aerolineas Argentinas. Additionally, why would GOL join STAR, when STAR will have Avianca-TACA, COPA, and most likely Avianca Brazil? Why would joining ST be a " bad move" on G3's part?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 16):
Nothing is ensured. The JV would obviously be dismantled in the event IAG won the bidding war. As things are currently set up, nothing prevents IAG from buying AZ. Even if IAG lost, at least they would force AF to spend a large amount of capital 

I think IAG will run up against some serious opposition by the EU govt in any attempt to buy TP. I would rather them go for AZ instead as there is no govt ownership involved and there should be no competition issues.

I never said anything was "ensured". AZ and AF have had a long-standing relationship, with AF being part-owner. They already have the JV. As you've said, anything can be undone, but the odds are in AF's (and SkyTeams) favor. IAG should go after Air Italy; although I don't think they really need an Italian partner at all.
One thing is for certain, IAG would never be allowed to buy TP and control the entire Iberian peninsula, and most of the traffic from Europe to South America.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:05 pm

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 17):
I never said anything was "ensured"

Well, you said....

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 15):
Plus, I think the JV with DL,AF/KL will ensure the sale goes to AF.

I fail to see how the JV will ensure that AF will win in any bidding war. The JV in itself doesn't ensure anything in regards to ownership, nor is there any binding permanence to a JV that gives AF/Skyteam an advantage.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 17):
AZ and AF have had a long-standing relationship,
Quoting delta2ual (Reply 17):
with AF being part-owner.

Both points would be rendered irrelevant if IAG came out the winner. AF would still own its 25%, but would have no say in terms of JV's, or alliance.

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 17):
One thing is for certain, IAG would never be allowed to buy TP and control the entire Iberian peninsula, and most of the traffic from Europe to South America.

Here we both agree. The combination of AA,LATAM,BA/IB/TP throws up all kinds of red flags and sirens. There would have to be some serious concessions written into IAG's proposal to buy TP.
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blink182
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:08 pm

I used to think that EY would go oneworld, but now I am not so sure. Yes, EY codeshares with a few oneworld airlines, but they codeshare with just about everybody these days. They're quite similar to AS in this regard and seem to enjoy their independence. Oneworld may welcome EY's brand power and reputation, but if they join, it will probably be as a reaction to a series of moves by QR or EK. EY's strong brand power and AUH's central location between Europe and Australia are the only assets oneworld could really use. RJ, despite being smaller than EY, covers the Middle East and is really developing its AMM hub. I wonder what will happen to AMM once the infrastructure is finished. India is soon to be covered with IT(if they can stay in business), Europe of course is covered, and CX and QF cover SE Asia fairly well. EK, with its strong Africa network make EK a better fit for oneworld than EY.

If anything, oneworld should be targeting African carriers. Comair, BA's affiliate down south, isn't enough. Similarly, TU wouldn't be enough either. There needs to be a way to get from say LOS to JNB or BOM without backtracking to LHR. If EY had a strong Africa network, they might fit.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 14):
Sponsoring Arik would constitute organic growth as they are not ready to join any big alliance yet. BA used to be fairly active in recruiting franchises in Africa. I wish they would return to that.

Agreed 100%, but hasn't Arik struggled of late? I wonder if IAG could develop Arik.

China is another hole. Oneworld seems to do an okay job around China with QF, CX, and JL, and MH to join, but they need to get IN China. The only airline left with a strong brand power, to my knowledge, is Hainan.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 9):
HU would be the much needed boost for OW's presence in China, however I am really curious how it would work out for Hainan as Hainan Group. I think CX would be furious to see HK in OW :P

You're right, but CX doesn't play nice with many.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:27 pm

Quoting blink182 (Reply 19):
Agreed 100%, but hasn't Arik struggled of late?

Yeah, they have had some issues as of late, but it seems most of their problems can be solved with some better trained managers. That's where OW can come in. Arik recently orders two 748's, but what they really need are more 738's. W3 needs to create a more robust intra-Africa network to feed into their LOS hub.

Quoting blink182 (Reply 19):
If anything, oneworld should be targeting African carriers.

I would also like to see TAAG Angola recruited as well. I know they have had their issues in the past, but they seem to be evolving into a very credible carrier.
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EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 3:12 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 16):
I see no benefit in choosing ST over *A. That would be a bad move on G3's part.

I do not think LA-JJ will want G3 in oneworld. Therefore, G3 will remain independent or will choose SkyTeam.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 16):
Nothing is ensured. The JV would obviously be dismantled in the event IAG won the bidding war. As things are currently set up, nothing prevents IAG from buying AZ.

Do you know that for a fact? I would not be surprised if Groupe AF-KL had call options to buy out the 75% equityholders of AZ in the future. Sure, IAG could come up with a tempting offer priced higher than the call option strike price, but I really do not see IAG attempting a thing like that.
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PEET7G
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:56 pm

Quoting blink182 (Reply 19):
EK, with its strong Africa network make EK a better fit for oneworld than EY.

As much as I like your idea from a FF traveler's point, yet I think it will be a cold day in hell when EK joins any of the 3 big alliances. They feel confident enough to stand alone in this battle  
Peet7G
 
blink182
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:12 pm

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 22):
As much as I like your idea from a FF traveler's point, yet I think it will be a cold day in hell when EK joins any of the 3 big alliances. They feel confident enough to stand alone in this battle  

I wholeheartedly agree, and I never intended to suggest that EK would go to an alliance. I was just making the point that EY probably isn't the best fit for oneworld just because it has several partnerships, and that EK, despite being alone, probably offers more than EY could.
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aa1818
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 4:54 am

oneworld's current members (AA, BA, IB, QF, JL, AY, MA, LA, RJ, S7 & CX), are soon to be complemented by MH, IT, and possibly JJ.

The network holes are gaping even after all the additions. Africa and China. HU is the only Chinese option left, and while there are quite a few unaligned African carriers, it is important that oneworld act fast and soon in order to avoid picking up what's left as is the case in China.

In an ideal world, given the co-operation between CX and CA, I would love to see CA jump ship, however, I fear the more likely scenario is CX going to Star making way for HU/ HK in oneworld.

Picking up AT or TU would be great additions. IAG focussing some serious resources on Comair would also be a welcomed complement. Meridianna Fly in Italy would be a nice (small) addition for IAG/ oneworld. Perhaps LAN picking up PLUNA or even waiting until LATAM is formed. FlyBE would also be a nice addition to oneworld. WestJet as an affiliate and all of Jetstar and their subsidiaries would make excellent affiliates. Perhaps if they could convince Aeromexico to jump ship to replace MX, but I don't see that happenning realistically. All in all, once oneworld can fill the gaps in Africa and China, they will be in a better position to focus on deeper integration for existing members as well as smaller less significant acquisitions such as Meridianna Fly and PLUNA.

Just MHO.
AA1818
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mdavies06
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 4:54 am

Quoting blink182 (Reply 19):
Quoting PEET7G (Reply 9):
HU would be the much needed boost for OW's presence in China, however I am really curious how it would work out for Hainan as Hainan Group. I think CX would be furious to see HK in OW :P


You're right, but CX doesn't play nice with many.

CX will vote down any proposal to get HU into OW because CX will not want HX siphoning off their HK corporate clients by being in the same alliance. I can see OW just hang on there until trying to get some Chinese private carriers to join. In the very unlikely scenario of HU eventually joining ST or A*, then I can see OW trying to steal say CZ (former) or CA (latter) to jump ship.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 18):
Quoting delta2ual (Reply 17):
One thing is for certain, IAG would never be allowed to buy TP and control the entire Iberian peninsula, and most of the traffic from Europe to South America.

Here we both agree. The combination of AA,LATAM,BA/IB/TP throws up all kinds of red flags and sirens. There would have to be some serious concessions written into IAG's proposal to buy TP.

OW will have the largest market share in the South America to US / Europe market yes, but if we take out several secondary Brazil markets such as FOR, REC for a moment, there aren't many other markets in South America where ST and A* will not have a presence. For example, SCL may appear to be a OW market, it is also currently served by DL and AF.

Quoting blink182 (Reply 23):
Quoting PEET7G (Reply 22):
As much as I like your idea from a FF traveler's point, yet I think it will be a cold day in hell when EK joins any of the 3 big alliances. They feel confident enough to stand alone in this battle


I wholeheartedly agree, and I never intended to suggest that EK would go to an alliance. I was just making the point that EY probably isn't the best fit for oneworld just because it has several partnerships, and that EK, despite being alone, probably offers more than EY could.

Right now EK is still growing strong but eventually the rule of diminishing return will arrive, and at that point EK will certainly consider alliancing. At the end of the day alliancing do offer some benefits to airlines in general. EK is not FR. Their fares are competitive but it is not an LCC.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 6:40 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 24):
lyBE would also be a nice addition to oneworld. WestJet as an affiliate and all of Jetstar and their subsidiaries would make excellent affiliates. Perhaps if they could convince Aeromexico to jump ship to replace MX, but I don't see that happenning realistically.

So BA + FlyBE in oneworld. Hmmm, not sure. And I really don't see AM jumping ship; DL just acquired a stake in AM's equity and has now the right to appoint one director to AM's board. Moreover, AM and DL are expanding their alliance to offer more benefits to their customers.

Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 25):
In the very unlikely scenario of HU eventually joining ST or A*, then I can see OW trying to steal say CZ (former) or CA (latter) to jump ship.

Don't see that happening either.
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SomedayTrijet
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:16 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 26):
Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 25):
In the very unlikely scenario of HU eventually joining ST or A*, then I can see OW trying to steal say CZ (former) or CA (latter) to jump ship.

Don't see that happening either.

I agree, I think both CZ and MU will remain in Skyteam.

What Oneworld should worry about is the thing that if they don't get HU, there's basically no other alternative left as most medium-large airlines are (partially) owned by the "big 4" (CA, MU, CZ and HU.) This is the airlines I could possibly see as bringing something to the alliance, and they all fit the description;

Sichuan Airlines - 39% owned by CZ
Shandong Airlines - 100% owned by CA
Xiamen Airlines - 60% owned by CZ (and joining Skyteam anyway)
Shanghai Airlines - 100% owned by MU.
Shenzhen Airlines - 85% owned by CA (and joining Star Alliance anyway)

What's left? I don't see carriers like Spring Airlines or Juneyao Airlines joining an alliance soon...
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:10 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 26):
So BA FlyBE in oneworld. Hmmm, not sure.

Care to explain why not? BA codeshares with Flybe on the BA Connect routes, and now operates the Flybe Nordic JV with AY.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
PEET7G
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:59 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 24):
Perhaps if they could convince Aeromexico to jump ship to replace MX, but I don't see that happenning realistically.

I might have slipped by the news, but what's the situation with MX now? I know they are out of daily operations, but they still are listed on the OW site and they still claim to be back in the air soon. Is there any news on their plans, or what's next for them? Will they ever be back in business? Maybe LAN to the rescue...A'la LAN Mexico?
Also there was a strong rumor about LAN maybe making a move on setting up operations in Mexico (LAN Mexico maybe). Would that even be viable? What do you guys think?...or is LAN currently too busy with the TAM merger and the other ventures they are running?

Quoting SomedayTrijet (Reply 27):
What Oneworld should worry about is the thing that if they don't get HU, there's basically no other alternative left as most medium-large airlines are (partially) owned by the "big 4" (CA, MU, CZ and HU.)

I totally agree. China and the whole African continent are the 2 places OW was caught sleeping, and in both cases the other 2 competing alliances are light-years ahead. I agree that in China HU is their only option, but at some point it will be a problem that Hainan Group runs both HU and HK.
Peet7G
 
LJ
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 11:27 am

Quoting SomedayTrijet (Reply 27):
Shanghai Airlines - 100% owned by MU.

Shanghai is already Skyteam member.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 29):
China and the whole African continent are the 2 places OW was caught sleeping, and in both cases the other 2 competing alliances are light-years ahead.

Wasn't there a thread recently about Tunisair wanted to enter oneworld (after being rejected by Skyteam and Star)?

Quoting SomedayTrijet (Reply 27):

What's left? I don't see carriers like Spring Airlines or Juneyao Airlines joining an alliance soon...

Oneworld has CX, so it's not that they don't have any access to the Chinese market.
 
by738
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 11:48 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 28):
BA codeshares with Flybe on the BA Connect routes

BA Connect ?
 
delta2ual
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:59 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 18):
Well, you said....

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 15):
Plus, I think the JV with DL,AF/KL will ensure the sale goes to AF.

I fail to see how the JV will ensure that AF will win in any bidding war. The JV in itself doesn't ensure anything in regards to ownership, nor is there any binding permanence to a JV that gives AF/Skyteam an advantage.

Ok, I was using the word "ensure" as in "to be certain or secure"; whereas I think you use it as "guaranteed". They are both correct definitions. At any rate I feel fairly confident. I agree, however, that nothing is guaranteed. IAG may decide AZ isn't that big of a prize. A lot has to happen.
1) AZ has to want it.
2) AF/KL (and even DL) has to walk away
3) IAG has to want it pretty bad. I'm not so sure they do.
From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:33 am

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 29):
but what's the situation with MX now?

The latest I've read is that the govt(Mexico) has given them permission to start up some charter flights. Not sure what aircraft will be used.

Quoting BY738 (Reply 31):
BA Connect ?

BA Connect was BA's regional airline. Flybe bought the unit with some capital supplied by BA.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
smi0006
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:35 am

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 6):

My best guess is that B6 and EY will eventually join Oneworld but Not anytime soon
Quoting blink182 (Reply 19):
EY's strong brand power and AUH's central location between Europe and Australia are the only assets oneworld could really use.

But they compete so much with CX, BA JL and QF between Asia and Europe, not to mention IT and MH. I can't see anyone welcoming a Gulf Carrier into an alliance.

Besides, VA just signed a JV with EY after EY and QF drew very close only to separate due to QF denying EY access to the QF FF program and it's members. Goes beyond a Code share and something I suspect QF would find impossible to over come with regard to alliances
 
qf002
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 11:15 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 34):
I can't see anyone welcoming a Gulf Carrier into an alliance.

Maybe not one of the big three (EK, EY and QR) but what about carriers like GF, who are just on the brink of starting to grow again? GF barely steps on the toes of any OW airlines, but could be an excellent source of feed for other carriers (I'm thinking African and ME traffic which RJ seems to fail miserably with). Getting them into an alliance now allows for other member airlines to avoid another big competitor in the ME, and potentially gives them enormous feed into Africa where they currently lack partner airlines.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:35 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 33):
The latest I've read is that the govt(Mexico) has given them permission to start up some charter flights. Not sure what aircraft will be used.

I think this is not accurate. There were notes on the press that perhaps if MX were to be rescued and recapitalized, its future would be doing charter service, not regularly scheduled flights... and that the Minister of Employment seemed to be in agreement with such a plan. In any event, with our without the authorities' blessings, what MX would need to fly again is new owners, new management, money and planes, and they do not seem to be getting any of those any time soon. I hate being dire, but it'd be best for everyone if the liquidation process started right away.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 28):
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 26):
So BA FlyBE in oneworld. Hmmm, not sure.

Care to explain why not?

Would it pass antitrust muster? On the other hand, FlyBE's Economy Plus does not seem to be a premium cabin service like traditional full service airlines; it is basically just flexible tickets that let you change dates, preselect seats and bring more luggage. Not sure if their business model is compatible with an alliance.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 5:56 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 36):
Would it pass antitrust muster?

I don't see why not. We're not talking about BA buying BE, just Flybe joining the alliance. A good number of routes are already codeshared with BA ala the old BA connect, then the Nordic routes are codeshared under the AY JV. Will the EU really be worried about OW domination of South Hampton?

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 36):
On the other hand, FlyBE's Economy Plus does not seem to be a premium cabin service like traditional full service airlines;

I don't consider any intra-EU product as premium. J is nothing but glorified Y seats.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 36):
Not sure if their business model is compatible with an alliance.

I would consider BE to be an affiliate member.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 6:18 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 37):
Will the EU really be worried about OW domination of South Hampton?

Well, by that token, why does FlyBE contribute to the alliance that makes them an interesting candidate. They might be interesting to BA, but to oneworld?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 37):
I don't consider any intra-EU product as premium. J is nothing but glorified Y seats.

FlyBE does not even have that as far as I can see in their site. BA and the rest of the western European carriers that belong to an alliance usually block the middle seat (B and E, right?), and offer priority boarding and better catering. It seems based on FlyBe's site that their premium economy is simply the ability to pre-select seats, use their lounges and change flights. They do not seem to offer seats with better legroom or seats in rows where the middle seat has been blocked.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
PEET7G
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 6:38 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 36):
I think this is not accurate. There were notes on the press that perhaps if MX were to be rescued and recapitalized, its future would be doing charter service, not regularly scheduled flights... and that the Minister of Employment seemed to be in agreement with such a plan. In any event, with our without the authorities' blessings, what MX would need to fly again is new owners, new management, money and planes, and they do not seem to be getting any of those any time soon. I hate being dire, but it'd be best for everyone if the liquidation process started right away.

Pretty sad for MX, does a charter operator have any place within OW anymore? How about the rumors around LAN...is there any way for LAN to come and rescue MX...maybe reactivate it as LAN Mexico? Do the ownership laws in Mexico allow such a scenario? Is LAN even interested to enter the Mexican market?
Peet7G
 
EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 6:51 pm

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 39):
does a charter operator have any place within OW anymore?

Doubt it.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 39):
How about the rumors around LAN...is there any way for LAN to come and rescue MX...maybe reactivate it as LAN Mexico? Do the ownership laws in Mexico allow such a scenario? Is LAN even interested to enter the Mexican market?

I don't think there are any rumors. LA will not make a bid for MX. Mexican law limits foreign ownership of a commercial passenger airline to 25% of the voting stock and a higher percentage of non-voting stock at the discretion of the foreign investments regulator. I am quite sure LA would love to enter the Mexican market, but as long as these foreign investments restrictions remain in place, LA will stick to its cargo business in Mexico.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:29 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 38):
Well, by that token, why does FlyBE contribute to the alliance that makes them an interesting candidate. They might be interesting to BA, but to oneworld?

I wouldn't say that Flybe provides value to every single OW member airline, but based on their route map I can see the value they would provide to UK, Finland, and some continental travelers. I would imagine that BE could be of some use to BA, AB, and MA's LGW operations.

As I stated earlier, I would consider BE to be an associate member.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 38):
FlyBE does not even have that as far as I can see in their site.

To be fair and keep it an apples to apples comparison, we can't compare BE's E170/190's to BA's mainline fleet. A fair comparison would involve BA's Cityflyer E170/190's to BE's E170/190, in which case they are both equal.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:47 pm

I frankly think that, if it comes to adding more carriers, oneworld should plug holes in its global routemap (e.g., Africa) than add marginal capacity in mature markets like the UK/Northern Europe. You are of the opinion that FlyBe is a candidate for accession, I am of the opinion it is not. Let's agree to disagree.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
SCL767
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RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:57 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 40):
I don't think there are any rumors. LA will not make a bid for MX. Mexican law limits foreign ownership of a commercial passenger airline to 25% of the voting stock and a higher percentage of non-voting stock at the discretion of the foreign investments regulator.

There aren't any rumors since LAN is not interested in entering the Mexican domestic market in the next few years. LAN is focused on its Chilean, Colombian, Peruvian and future Brazilian operations and is not focused on entering the Mexican domestic market.



Quoting EddieDude (Reply 40):
I am quite sure LA would love to enter the Mexican market, but as long as these foreign investments restrictions remain in place, LA will stick to its cargo business in Mexico.

When the Mexican aviation market liberalizes like the majority of other Latin American countries; perhaps LAN will enter that domestic market. But Mexico has a long way to go; for example, Mexican carriers still reject the notion of consolidation. LAN is happy with its cargo subsidiary in Mexico and understands how the Mexican market works; however LAN would not want to enter the Mexican domestic market until the Mexican market liberalizes and also embraces Open Skies Treaties with the major industrialized nations.
 
qf002
Posts: 3084
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Any New Oneworld Members On Horizon?

Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:41 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 36):
FlyBE's Economy Plus does not seem to be a premium cabin service like traditional full service airlines; it is basically just flexible tickets that let you change dates, preselect seats and bring more luggage. Not sure if their business model is compatible with an alliance.

Doesn't seem to be an issue for JQ (though they are technically not a member, but are oddly part of certain fares and other bits and pieces).

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