LAXintl
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Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:36 pm

Good results, but down from 2010.

Like Southwest they took a hedge loss for the quarter. Otherwise it was record quarterly income for carrier on back of strong traffic results.

More details after I see the call notes.


News:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44974194

Press release:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alaska...ts-prnews-2917476381.html?x=0&.v=1
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apodino
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:40 pm

This was being discussed in another thread, but that thread got deleted somehow?

Anyways, as I said in that thread, though they don't get the talk on here that a lot of airlines do, they are doing something right, and quietly making money. Good job.
 
nutsaboutplanes
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:31 pm

Excellent numbers! Congrats to all of my good friends in Seattle.....very well done......again!
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SANFan
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:47 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 1):
This was being discussed in another thread, but that thread got deleted somehow?

   Something you (or I) said? Maybe we weren't complimentary enough?  

Anyway, as I said on the other (vanished) thread, AS keeps making money and doing a darned good job of running their airline! Great effort by Team Alaska; Chester can keep on smiling !

Now if the webmaster can just get the real route map and pdf (printable) timetable back up on the website, I'll be a very happy camper...

Note: at least someone has updated/corrected a couple of issues with the pdf route map and I thank them for that!

bb

[Edited 2011-10-20 13:05:35]
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:01 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 4):
Chester can keep on smiling !

And he's still being lei'd too on the ETOPS airplanes..
 
SANFan
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:06 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 5):
And he's still being lei'd too on the ETOPS airplanes..

Excellent reason to smile!

 

bb
 
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:27 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
down from 2010.

Not really. This was the best quarter in the company's history, with record third quarter net income, excluding special items, of $131.1 million, or $3.58 per diluted share, compared to net income of $118.1 million, or $3.21 per diluted share.

And if you're truly comparing 3Q10 to 3Q11:

•Revenues improved by 12 percent with record load factors and higher yields in each month of the quarter, more than offsetting the 41 percent increase in economic fuel costs.

•Non-fuel unit costs declined by 2.6 percent.

•Improved employee productivity by 3.8 percent compared to the third quarter of 2010.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
LAXintl
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:50 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
Not really.

I said it was a record income quarter, however hedge losses wiped some away producing lower net earnings year over year.
The linked article, and news release also state this.

Since we happily accept hedge gains in the advertised headline numbers, we should likewise accept hedge losses when they occur. (we just saw that with SWA).
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n471wn
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:57 pm

In light of these excellent AS results, if I were Hawaiian Airlines, I would be rethinking my strategy of under valuing the importance of direct island service to the mainland (verus going through Honolulu). But in the end, I am sure they will still "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" and think their opportunity is East (Japan) versus the US West Coast.
 
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:58 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 8):
I said it was a record income quarter, however hedge losses wiped some away producing lower net earnings year over year.
The linked article, and news release also state this.

Since we happily accept hedge gains in the advertised headline numbers, we should likewise accept hedge losses when they occur. (we just saw that with SWA).

Apologies - I'd not noticed where you did acknowledge it was a record income quarter.  
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
SANFan
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:44 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 9):
In light of these excellent AS results, if I were Hawaiian Airlines, I would be rethinking my strategy of under valuing the importance of direct island service to the mainland (verus going through Honolulu). But in the end, I am sure they will still "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" and think their opportunity is East (Japan) versus the US West Coast

It seems that the issue of HA vs. AS between the Islands and the w/c always comes up these days in any thread about either carrier. And here it is again.

The usual arguments will be made by the pro-Alaska group and the pro-Hawaiian folks will take their usual stand… All I want to say is that it appears there is room for both carriers between Hawaii and the U.S. west coast; there is some pushing and shoving of course, and some give and take as the economics on the routes and at the destinations change, and as fleets expand and contract.

Pualani and Chester are different – different carriers, different a/c, different business models, different home bases – and it seems to me that the differences help make both airlines successful. I personally like both airlines and think they both do good jobs keeping their customers happy. Importantly as well -- both airlines also have other (expanding) areas on their route maps.

Perhaps it’s just as simple as… HA carries a majority of Hawaiians FROM the Islands TO the mainland and back, while AS carries a lot of us mainlanders from here TO the Islands and BACK. Plenty of back and forth by both groups…

bb
 
n471wn
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:13 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 11):
Perhaps it’s just as simple as… HA carries a majority of Hawaiians FROM the Islands TO the mainland and back, while AS carries a lot of us mainlanders from here TO the Islands and BACK. Plenty of back and forth by both groups…

Well said---I agree
 
atrude777
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:15 pm

Excellent Alaska Airlines, way to go!!!

I flew them again SEA-ANC round trip and was very pleased with their service and flights.

Always happy to hear of an airline posting operating profits, shows they are doing something right!

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:29 pm

My bad....I failed to include a link to the press release I'd copied so the thread was deleted.
Live and learn!
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:39 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 14):
My bad....I failed to include a link to the press release I'd copied so the thread was deleted.

Maybe the moderators can just ask the OP fix that one problem rather than mysteriously (to everyone else who's posted) delete an entire thread of postings that people might have spent a lot of time on?
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:25 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 15):
Maybe the moderators can just ask the OP fix that one problem rather than mysteriously (to everyone else who's posted) delete an entire thread of postings that people might have spent a lot of time on?

They can change thread titles, I'm sure they could just copy and paste a link with a slap on the wrist message in the first post. But that's just a.net  

I have a question on all this, is there some kind of figure that measures how much revenue/synergies come from the AS/DL and AS/AA codeshares? I'm sure these codeshares go a long way for AS
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:42 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 16):
is there some kind of figure that measures how much revenue/synergies come from the AS/DL and AS/AA codeshares

There is, but it's generally not publicly disclosed. Let's just say the codeshares with AA and DL are very beneficial.  
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
LAXintl
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:03 am

Some notes from earnings call.


FINANCE

o $77.5mil net profit down from in $122.4mil in 2010.
o Excluding adjustments quarter produced company record $131.1mil income.
o Large $84mil mark to market fuel hedge loss ($95 plan vs actual $79 bbl)
o ex fuel CASM 7.28cents. Q3 cost lower than estimated.
o CASM 1-2% higher in Q4.
o Yoy fuel cost up 41%. Refining margin (crack) spread climbing and concerning. Adds $250mil annually.
o 50% hedged in Q4.
o Hedging is important. Insurance policy producing predictable fuel cost and remains good idea long term.
o Low unit cost key. Low overhead and high productivity. 9 consecutive quarters to improve productivity.
o Customers want low fares, so must have low cost.
o $50mil share repurchase plan ongoing. Have bought back $240mil in stock last few years.
o Horizon making strides in reshaping itself under new CPA arrangement. Q3 produced 6.9% operating margin, and working hard to reach the 10% ROIC target. Year to date was about 4%. Prob take a couple years for Horizon to reach 10%.
o Future pension expenses concern due weak investment returns.
o See significant cost pressure going into 2012, and will finely focus on budgets. Wages, maintenance, pensions.
o Ended Qtr with $1.3bil cash.
o Have 23 unencumbered 737 aircraft plus 2 undrawn lines of credit avail if cash needs dictate. But prefer low leveraged balance sheet.
o Mainline return on capital goal 10% likely to be reached in 2011.


TRAFFIC / NETWORK
o Q3 high LF – mainline records – 87.0%
o Improved yields . 7% pax unit rev increases
o Strong mainline OT performance 91% in Q3. Leads US industry group in trailing 12-mos
o Demand environment appears stable for now, actually its “strong”, but can make quick network decision to adjust downwards.
o Mainline capacity up 6%. Regional capacity down 4.5%
o Recent years 27 aircraft redeployed from historic N-S West Coast service, primarily to Hawaii. Has produced better results in all operating regions
o Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.
o Horizon rightsizing network, and producing better results for group.
o Opportunistic growth. Back fill competitive capacity that is leaving the market (eg – MCI)
o Q4 capacity to be up about 3%
o 2012 capacity estimated up 6% at mainline. 5% total at Air Group.
o Uncertainty in macro environment, but future growth range estimates 4-8% annually


FLEET
o 737-900ER start arriving in 2012. Will use -900ERs as growth aircraft to swap out with 737-800 in existing markets
o 3 737-400 returns planed in Q3/Q4. Might do a “very short” extension on 1-2 tails
o Single fleet transition at Horizon was good decision.


OTHER
o In arbitration with pilots. Expect decision in December. Company seeks 5% reduction, pilots want 2.8% raise.

=
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:18 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 18):
TRAFFIC / NETWORK
o Q3 high LF – mainline records – 87.0%
o Improved yields . 7% pax unit rev increases
o Strong mainline OT performance 91% in Q3. Leads US industry group in trailing 12-mos
o Demand environment appears stable for now, actually its “strong”, but can make quick network decision to adjust downwards.
o Mainline capacity up 6%. Regional capacity down 4.5%
o Recent years 27 aircraft redeployed from historic N-S West Coast service, primarily to Hawaii. Has produced better results in all operating regions
o Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.
o Horizon rightsizing network, and producing better results for group.
o Opportunistic growth. Back fill competitive capacity that is leaving the market (eg – MCI)
o Q4 capacity to be up about 3%
o 2012 capacity estimated up 6% at mainline. 5% total at Air Group.
o Uncertainty in macro environment, but future growth range estimates 4-8% annually

I was disappointed that Andrew didn't say "maaakets" more often in this call...  
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
nutsaboutplanes
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:48 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 19):
OTHER
o In arbitration with pilots. Expect decision in December. Company seeks 5% reduction, pilots want 2.8% raise.

Would anybody care to elaborate on this particular bullet-point? I know that it was not too long ago that AS re-aligned the FO pay after a significant cut that was taken in a previous binding arbitration. The "5% reduction" that AS is seeking.....is this in actual base pay or is this productivity gains that they are looking for? My guess is that these are productivity gains as AS has really been working to increase productivity levels across the board.
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:51 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 18):
o Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.

   Amazing. The tail is now fully in charge of the dog. I didn't think it was going to work, but it did.

Always glad to see AS succeed.  
 
LAXintl
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:12 am

Quoting Nutsaboutplanes (Reply 20):
Would anybody care to elaborate on this particular bullet-point?

Under the 5-year IBT pilots agreement, there are two opportunities for wage resets. One in 2011 and other in September 2013.

As part of this clause, the company held meetings with the union but was unable to come to an agreement so they took the issue the next step into arbitration.

The company seeks a 5% across the board wage reduction, while pilots are instead pushing for a 2.8% raise above and beyond the step increases in the existing contract.

[Edited 2011-10-20 21:20:03]
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:03 pm

LAXintl, thank you for posting the details.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.

WHAT!?!    I'm impressed and surprised and...

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
I didn't think it was going to work, but it did.

It has exceeded expectations.   I thought it would work. I just didn't think *that* many flights.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Large $84mil mark to market fuel hedge loss ($95 plan vs actual $79 bbl)

Impressive.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
ex fuel CASM 7.28cents. Q3 cost lower than estimated.

Excellent. The 739ERs will help further. What is the total casm? I would estimate 10.5 to 11 cents.. but I'm guessing.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Single fleet transition at Horizon was good decision.

Agreed. I'm not a fan of too many types to support.

Lightsaber
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n471wn
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:32 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.

I rest my case on how Hawaiian has blown this opportunity.........perhaps Hawaiian may wish to start flying to and within Alaska.....
 
MoltenRock
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:19 pm

BTW.... does anyone know when the Delta flight crew wages "snap back" to the previously high levels? I know during bankruptcy they were one date, then upon merger with NWA who had lower wages locked in for longer, they all became shorter to ease integration. Shouldn't those "snap back" wages / costs be coming very soon, as in the next 1 to 2 years? If so, Alaska is going to be looking even better.
 
sxf24
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:43 pm

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 24):
BTW.... does anyone know when the Delta flight crew wages "snap back" to the previously high levels? I know during bankruptcy they were one date, then upon merger with NWA who had lower wages locked in for longer, they all became shorter to ease integration. Shouldn't those "snap back" wages / costs be coming very soon, as in the next 1 to 2 years? If so, Alaska is going to be looking even better.

Already happened.
 
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:38 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 23):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Hawaii represents about 20% of network now.

I rest my case on how Hawaiian has blown this opportunity.........

You've "rested" it too soon - did you think about the aircraft HA would have been using? 763s and A330s provide FAR too much lift for the markets AS has chosen to enter. For all the hand-wringing the choice of the 738 takes from a small group here for mainland to Hawaii service, it's clearly the right aircraft for the missions AS has selected.

HA could certainly have tried these routes, sure - and they'd have been a bloodbath for them without the right equipment.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
n471wn
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:55 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
HA could certainly have tried these routes, sure - and they'd have been a bloodbath for them without the right equipment.

you made my point for me----they missed the market and missed getting the right equipment for the mission
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:19 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
For all the hand-wringing the choice of the 738 takes from a small group here for mainland to Hawaii service, it's clearly the right aircraft for the missions AS has selected.

Exactly, HA's larger equipment couldn't do lot of the routes economically - and in some cases operationally - that are successful for AS: SJC-LIH, SEA-LIH, BLI-HNL, ANC-OGG, etc.

Say what you will about the 737NG doing ETOPS missions, but it has allowed a lot of new point-to-point routes to be opened to Hawaii. Saves a drive to SFO or a connection in HNL or SEA, for example.

Now if only AS just had some ETOPS capable 737-700s so they could economically open SNA-HNL, SNA-OGG, SNA-KOA........... (From what I understand, the 737-800 can do SNA-Hawaii but would need to go out of SNA with a bunch of empty seats for weight restriction purposes, thus probably rendering it uneconomical).
 
SANFan
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:09 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 28):
Now if only AS just had some ETOPS capable 737-700s so they could economically open SNA-HNL, SNA-OGG, SNA-KOA........... (From what I understand, the 737-800 can do SNA-Hawaii but would need to go out of SNA with a bunch of empty seats for weight restriction purposes, thus probably rendering it uneconomical).

This has been discussed MANY times and AS probably knows what they are doing by NOT doing exactly what you suggest -- getting an entire new sub-fleet of (ETOPS-certified) a/c for one route -- SNA-Hawaii.

It should be apparent by now that AS seems to be finding plenty of (other) routes to the Islands using their ETOPS-fleet of 738s. (Personal comment: hopefully SAN-KOA and SAN-LIH are high on that potential-new-Hawaii-routes list!)

In a possibly related matter, have you noticed that UA/CO seems to be backing out of the SNA-HI market these days?

bb
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:25 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 29):
In a possibly related matter, have you noticed that UA/CO seems to be backing out of the SNA-HI market these days?

Yes. I had noticed that about CO, down to once weekly in some case. Hence my comment. I'm well aware that AS has determined that it's not cost effective to have a subfleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS just for SNA. In fact you'll note that part of my posting was kind of tongue-in-cheek: It would be nice, but I understand it's not feasible for them.

I don't know the 737 as well as the Everett models, so I'm not sure what it would take to retrofit 737s for ETOPS - other than adding HF radios - especially if some provisions weren't already in place. They aren't dummies at AS, so I'm sure someone has already evaluated it. I know it's just not feasible to upgrade a 767 domestic model, without already having at least some ETOPS related provisions like for the Hydraulic Motor Generator.

I'm expecting PDX-LIH and BLI-OGG next if/when AS connects some more dots to Hawaii. I could see SAN-KOA if the other new SAN flights are successful. It appears they have no interest in LGB-Hawaii. Another poster indicated they didn't even apply for the open LGB slots.

[Edited 2011-10-21 16:27:21]
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:31 am

SAN-HNL advance bookings are very strong...outstanding. I expect we'll see SAN-LIH, SAN-KOA, SJC-HNL, OAK-HNL, PDX-LIH by the end of 2012.

I think the plan is to have such strong service throughout the islands from multiple west coast cities that SW doesn't stand much of a chance. They'll be a couple of years too late to the party by the time they get their ETOPs. The Hawaii market will be so foreign to them too...they can't go in there with their usual scheduling of multiple flights per day on a city-pair or cattle-car seating with no food service for 5+ hours. I might be wrong but I just don't see it happening. Besides, have they even started any program or is it just talk at this point?

And who knows what is going on at Allegiant....I heard a rumor there were problems with getting their ETOPS certificate.
 
SANFan
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:11 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
In fact you'll note that part of my posting was kind of tongue-in-cheek: It would be nice, but I understand it's not feasible for them

Sorry, I didn't read your comments as tongue-in-check. Even though AS and SNA-HI is discussed often, I don't really see AS changing their mind on the subject!

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
SAN-HNL advance bookings are very strong...outstanding. I expect we'll see SAN-LIH, SAN-KOA, SJC-HNL, OAK-HNL, PDX-LIH by the end of 2012

I know SAN-OGG is doing well and I am glad -- and certainly not surprised -- to hear that SAN-HNL is looking good as far as pre-inaugural advance bookings. I continue to hope that perhaps next year SAN will see a split LIH/KOA flight similar to what AQ offered.   

And we'll just hope that AS has enough new a/c next year to make your predictions of new HI-service come true; I guess it will depend on whether or not they keep some or all of the leased planes they had planned on returning in 2012.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
I think the plan is to have such strong service throughout the islands from multiple west coast cities that SW doesn't stand much of a chance. They'll be a couple of years too late to the party by the time they get their ETOPs. The Hawaii market will be so foreign to them too...they can't go in there with their usual scheduling of multiple flights per day on a city-pair or cattle-car seating with no food service for 5+ hours

I have maintained this ever since WN (and G4) started talking about flying to the Islands a year or so ago. And AS has certainly made HI a big priority and is already in a very solid position there, let alone what else they might have planned for the next couple of years!

Typical well thought-out strategy being executed beautifully and carefully by team-Alaska!

bb
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:15 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
I think the plan is to have such strong service throughout the islands from multiple west coast cities that SW doesn't stand much of a chance. They'll be a couple of years too late to the party by the time they get their ETOPs. The Hawaii market will be so foreign to them too...they can't go in there with their usual scheduling of multiple flights per day on a city-pair or cattle-car seating with no food service for 5+ hours. I might be wrong but I just don't see it happening. Besides, have they even started any program or is it just talk at this point?

I give Alaska a lot of credit for the execution of their Hawaii services. But I would be very careful in underestimating what WN is capable of doing.

-> "WN doesn't stand much of a chance" - that has been a rare outcome for them over the years. No, they aren't perfect, and they haven't been successful at everything they've done, but you need to look at WN as a marathon runner rather than a sprinter.

--> "They'll be a couple of years too late to the party..." - Southwest does things on their own timetable from what I've seen.

---> "The Hawaii market will be so foreign to them too" - Again, I say don't underestimate them. They are changing with the tide in a number of subtle ways, and they can adapt to the island markets I'm sure.

----> "Cattle Car seating" - oye

-----> "No food service for 5+ hours" - I think there have been carriers/flights to the islands on even longer itineraries that didn't have food service. ORD-HNL on either UA or AA comes to mind (can't remember which one). Regardless, people survived PHX-BWI, SEA-BWI, etc. on WN. They can survive OAK-HNL and LAX-OGG if the price is right.

All my comments are meant in a friendly way. I like Alaska and am thrilled with their success. I just don't think it has to be WN or AS. It can be WN and AS. UA, DL, etc might just be the ones to have to make room.  

-Dave
-Dave
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:19 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 33):
I say don't underestimate them. They are changing with the tide in a number of subtle ways, and they can adapt to the island markets I'm sure.


Agreed....their abilities should never be underestimated. I think absorbing AirTran and cracking ATL and the NE are going to be keeping them a bit busy. Their workforce intergration with AirTran sounds a bit rocky and I really don't see them hanging on to the non-737 aircraft. Maintaining a comparable level of service will take up a large number of -37 tails as there are 80+ -17's Then the Wright Act expires in '14. They've got a lot on their plate.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 32):
And we'll just hope that AS has enough new a/c next year to make your predictions of new HI-service come true; I guess it will depend on whether or not they keep some or all of the leased planes they had planned on returning in 2012.


I believe that there are three leased-400's that will be kept on a few months longer than planned, keeping them now into early '12. I was on one of them the other day....no wi-fi! People were having internet withdrawl! LOL

There are three -800 ETOPS coming between Jan-May '12 and two -900ER's coming in late '12.
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:38 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
And who knows what is going on at Allegiant....I heard a rumor there were problems with getting their ETOPS certificate.

Allegiant still says they are on track for Hawaii flights starting Summer 2012.

Unless AS is thinking about Hawaii flights from FAT, SCK, EUG, etc (all unlikely for AS to Hawaii in my mind) I don't think Allegiant is really an issue for them. BLI is probably the only place they were going to bump heads to Hawaii anyway.

But I do think like you that AS is doing a nice job of expanding at cities/routes that WN likely would be looking into. They should be well established by the time WN tries to enter Hawaii from its west coast stations.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 5:59 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 35):
But I do think like you that AS is doing a nice job of expanding at cities/routes that WN likely would be looking into. They should be well established by the time WN tries to enter Hawaii from its west coast stations.

It'll be an interesting battle.   If there were a tiny airstrip between the west coast and Hawaii, then perhaps WN would just do one-stops there like they do up and down the west coast. Alaska seems to have held them back a little there.

For now.

-Dave
-Dave
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:00 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
I expect we'll see SAN-LIH, SAN-KOA, SJC-HNL, OAK-HNL, PDX-LIH by the end of 2012.

It will be interesting if they decide to go toe-to-toe with HA on SJC-HNL and OAK-HNL. Wonder if those markets can support two carriers (along with SJC-OGG which already now has both).

Surprised you didn't mention BLI-OGG. I can see that one, at least a few days a week, if BLI-HNL does well, which I've heard it does.

From everything that has been posted, it look like AS WON'T do:

SEA-ITO
SNA-Hawaii
LGB-Hawaii
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:11 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):
Surprised you didn't mention BLI-OGG. I can see that one, at least a few days a week, if BLI-HNL does well, which I've heard it does.


Based on the great deals you can get, BLI-HNL is probably the weakest market of all. I doubt they'll start BLI-OGG and in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the current service drop to five days a week. There's much more money to be made out of Cali.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):
It will be interesting if they decide to go toe-to-toe with HA on SJC-HNL and OAK-HNL. Wonder if those markets can support two carriers


SJC is going to be interesting. There's a lot of potential there with AA and B6 dropping routes. AS Mileage Plan is a great advantage over HA...anyone that travels on business on the west coast is probably a member. I think the SAN advance bookings will embolden AS to take on HA pretty much anywhere except maybe LAX and LAS.
 
atrude777
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:19 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 31):
The Hawaii market will be so foreign to them too...

Not as foreign as you might think, while WN metal did not fly to Hawaii, ATA did. Southwest had access to all of the seats, fares and availability that ATA had when they flew to Hawaii themselves.

WN and ATA aligned their routes to ensure easy access and connections.

So Hawaii will not be as foreign to WN Mgmt, as they may be to the Employees working the flights to Hawaii.

As mentioned before, long haul flying is not knew to WN or their passengers. PHL-OAK, at the time WN's longest segment was 2,511 miles. LAX-HNL, another possible route, is 2,556.

Customers will adapt and get food before coming on board OR WN may surprise us all and offer BOB for the Hawaii Markets only.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:33 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 38):
There's a lot of potential there with AA and B6 dropping routes.

Yes, I posted on AS's Facebook site that I think they should start SJC-BOS since B6 is dropping it. They didn't reply.  

Like many others, I had thought and hoped that AS planned to build SJC up to a hub or focus city (it's my former home town and where most of my family still lives). Unfortunately, AS dropping SJC-AUS and passing on the QX slots at SNA, which they could have started SJC-SNA, makes me wonder if this is still the plan.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 38):
Based on the great deals you can get, BLI-HNL is probably the weakest market of all.

I've heard from an AS pilot, who works in my area part-time, that it's doing great. Anyone else have any info on how BLI-HNL is doing?

As expected, BLI is supposedly attracting a lot of traffic from B.C. Lower Mainland. If you live in places like Aldergrove, White Rock or Sumas, it's probably much easier and quicker to get to BLI than to YVR.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:56 pm

In the discussion of AS adding more Hawaii routes, no-one has mentioned SMF. SMF-OGG seems to be overlooked and I often forget it's there.

How is it doing?

Any prospect of AS adding SMF-KOA or SMF-HNL? SMF-LIH might be a little too small market (even though I personally like Kauai the best of all islands).

By comparison, Tom at SJC has previously stated that SJC-OGG is doing really outstanding; SJC-KOA very well; and SJC-LIH starting off okay.
 
sxf24
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:24 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 40):
I've heard from an AS pilot, who works in my area part-time, that it's doing great. Anyone else have any info on how BLI-HNL is doing?

From the available fares I've see, it's not doing that great. Funneling traffic up from SEA to connect...
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:51 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 40):
Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 38):
Based on the great deals you can get, BLI-HNL is probably the weakest market of all.

I've heard from an AS pilot, who works in my area part-time, that it's doing great. Anyone else have any info on how BLI-HNL is doing?

Actually, BLI is performing VERY well! The "secret is out" among the folks in Vancouver, as they're more than willing to drive a little bit to save a few hundred bucks per ticket.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:07 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 43):
Actually, BLI is performing VERY well! The "secret is out" among the folks in Vancouver, as they're more than willing to drive a little bit to save a few hundred bucks per ticket.


We flew BLI-HNL in late September and it was full Hawaii-bound and 3/4 full back to BLI. Late Sept-early Nov are traditionally slow to sun destinations such as Hawaii and Mexico so no surprise that the return (on a Monday night) wasn't full. Come mid-November it'll get quite full.

The interesting thing was that probably 80% of the cars in the BLI parking lot were British Columbia license plates. It's true that it's much cheaper than flying out of BLI vs. YVR...you just have to deal with the border crossing in Blaine. Taxes are about $70 per person more to fly out of YVR so for a family of four you're saving nearly $300 by driving to BLI. In addition, parking is only $8 per day. In YVR you'd pay triple that.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:23 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 40):
Like many others, I had thought and hoped that AS planned to build SJC up to a hub or focus city (it's my former home town and where most of my family still lives). Unfortunately, AS dropping SJC-AUS and passing on the QX slots at SNA, which they could have started SJC-SNA, makes me wonder if this is still the plan.

I've given up on hoping for additional "focus cities" from Alaska. It seems everytime we get our hopes up, they start drawing down the routes. You can't argue with their profits, but it certainly isn't fun for us enthusiasts.

-Dave
-Dave
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:21 am

I was hoping AS would consider bolstering their presence in existing destinations beyond it's one flight per day to places like ATL, IAH, MIA, STL, etc...also beyond the planned 739-ER.

I think AS has cautiously attempted SJC expansion with not a lot of real success. Hawaii is doing well there. AA might absorb AS if they expand SJC too much...look at OC and QQ.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:22 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 46):
AA might absorb AS if they expand SJC too much...look at OC and QQ.


AA gave up on SJC long ago...mainline flights are only to ORD and DFW. No one 'owns' SJC and there are plenty of opportunites. Unfortunately SW likes to play games there (AUS being a perfect example) so any new service could see simultaneous competition when there's only room for one carrier on a route.
 
bahadir
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Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2001 4:57 pm

RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:30 pm

what's the secret about alaska ? Is it low costs or higher yields?
Earthbound misfit I
 
hatbutton
Posts: 275
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RE: Alaska Airlines Post Q3 Profit - $77.5mil Net

Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:57 pm

Quoting bahadir (Reply 48):
what's the secret about alaska ? Is it low costs or higher yields?

Combination of both as well as award winning service and loyalty program.

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