koreana380
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Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:36 am

With the 2011 Dubai airshow fast approaching, any thoughts on whether we are likely to see bumper orders? I recall that the 2009 show was a rather sombre affair, with Airbus fairing better than Boeing in orders, but still way short of levels from previous years.

I think it will be interesting to see whether the "Arab Spring" will have a knock-on effect on orders from Middle East carriers. For a start, given the recent fighting Libya undoubtedly needs a new fleet. Also, Yemen has plans to acquire A350's - will that still happen or will those plans get shelved with the current turmoil?

Another interesting point is that Boeing has maintained "off the record" / "back channel" contact with Iran Air over the years, and met with the Iran Air folks at the 2009 show. The question is whether Boeing is going to continue such contact in light of the new sanctions imposed on Iran Air by the US government:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...nctions-iran-idUSTRE75M5EF20110623

Word is that Qatar Airways are set for a mega order - however is there really enough passenger demand to accommodate Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad's plans for world domination?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:32 am

Quoting koreana380 (Thread starter):
"Arab Spring" will have a knock-on effect on orders from Middle East carriers

I dont think so.

Libya wasnt sanctioned during Gadaffi's last few years--its airlines are operating modern 737's, A320s, And A330s no problem! It will continue to recieve the new jets. The growth of this is affected for sure.

Egypt has seen a decline in aviation, but not that bad. Yemen is still struggling as the country is still ruled by a madman.

As for airlines of the Arabian Gulf, their growth is expanding with no signs of slowdown!
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scbriml
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:36 am

I expect to see the following:

QR - 5-10 additional A380, 30 or so NEO family.

EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

EY - not sure we'll see anything from them.
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chiad
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:57 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

Perhaps the launch of the A380-900?
  
 
sirtoby
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:03 am

ALAFCO firming and topping up their A320neo order.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:03 am

Quoting koreana380 (Thread starter):
For a start, given the recent fighting Libya undoubtedly needs a new fleet. Also, Yemen has plans to acquire A350's - will that still happen or will those plans get shelved with the current turmoil?

Funny, that. In a thread about A350-800's someone thought the ones for Afriqiah and Yemen would surely be cancelled... However, before those are to be delivered it will be 2016, and who knows what the world would like by then.

For the record: Afriqiah has 6 A358's on order, Libyan Arab 4, and Yemenia has ordered 10 A358's.

I don't know about the state of Afriqiah's current fleet. They lost an A332 last year of course, and it seems an A306 was destroyed in the fightings. There were also reports about an A332 being damaged. I guess they will try to lease some A330's to bridge capacity gaps - or they can convert Gadaffi's A342 into a pax jet, since he doesn't need it anymore      
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koreana380
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:17 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
it seems an A306 was destroyed in the fightings. There were also reports about an A332 being damaged.

A report on CNN stated that Most of Libya's airline fleet had been destroyed in the fighting - I found that hard to believe.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:20 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
QR - 5-10 additional A380

With or without engines?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:12 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
With or without engines?

With engines = Airbus.

Without engines = bus.
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:52 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
QR - 5-10 additional A380

With or without engines?

Which engines will they select? I suspect RR, but I have not seen confirmation.

Lightsaber
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yegbey01
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:13 pm

I sure hope MEA would pick up 2 or 3 A350's!!!
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:17 pm

I would like to see SV order some NEOs. Something like 10x A320 , 10x A321, and 40 options would be ideal. When they start arriving they can return some of the A320s back to the lessor.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:20 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 3):
Perhaps the launch of the A380-900?

Now there's something I can see happening. To my knowledge EK and CX have indicated they would be interested in the -900 version. Any others (QF)?

A388
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:44 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 12):
To my knowledge EK and CX have indicated they would be interested in the -900 version. Any others (QF)?

Some of the pax in (over) full QF388s might welcome a 389 or 5! But pax wishes might not be that high on the QF agenda!!   
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 4:36 am

Didn't MEA say a couple years ago that they would pick either the 787 or the 350? what happened with that?
 
koreana380
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:22 am

Quoting OLBA (Reply 14):
Didn't MEA say a couple years ago that they would pick either the 787 or the 350? what happened with that?

From what I recall they were swaying towards the A350, haven't heard much about this in a while though.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:54 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

I dont see a reason, why they should order more A380 now. Later, sure, but what benefit do they have ordering now rather than later?
77Ws definately. They have a huge gap between the current last 77W delivery and any A350-1000 coming, especially if we take any possible delays into account. My bet is on 30 77Ws.
 
koreana380
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:56 am

Quoting hal9213 (Reply 16):
My bet is on 30 77Ws.

If that does in fact happen their future 777 fleet will be in the neighborhood of 150 aircraft - pretty amazing considering these guys started out with just a couple of airplanes 25 years ago.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:32 am

Quoting sirtoby (Reply 4):
ALAFCO firming and topping up their A320neo order.

Definately, they announced yesterday we are to expect an increase in their order for the A320neo

He added that Alafco was in talks with Airbus over a new order. "We are in negotiations with Airbus to increase the last order, and any outcome will be announced at the Dubai Airshow in November," Zabin said.

At the Paris Airshow in June, Alafco signed a memorandum of understanding to purchase 30 A320neo family aircraft, worth a total of $2.7bn at list prices.


Source

Quoting HiJazzey (Reply 11):
I would like to see SV order some NEOs. Something like 10x A320 , 10x A321, and 40 options would be ideal. When they start arriving they can return some of the A320s back to the lessor.

A good point and it may not just be limited to narrowbodies either as they have stated they intend to order 50 more aircraft to modernise their fleet. The A320neo must be a part of their plans along with the possibility of them firming 10 77Ws.

Only a small article available here Bloomberg

Overall, there are indications it could be a good show for the OEMs and Middle Eastern carriers

Regards,

Paul
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koreana380
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:48 am

Any thoughts on Gulf Air's 787 order, I believe they recently cancelled a number of planes which leaves them with approx 16 787's on order - think they will see it through?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:49 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
Which engines will they select? I suspect RR, but I have not seen confirmation.

I wonder why you say that? Some months ago I was given the weakest of hints that it would be RR but I'm still holding my breath.

It's certainly a critical order for both RR and EA.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sat Oct 29, 2011 6:19 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 18):
The A320neo must be a part of their plans along with the possibility of them firming 10 77Ws.

Anyone think the 737"Max" is in the running for SV's single aisle fleet development?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sat Oct 29, 2011 6:31 pm

Quoting koreana380 (Reply 19):

So far they should do, there is talk that they might return the 2 leased E170s back to Embraer due to issues with too little cargo capacity on the regional jets.

Also, there is a very strong possibility that some if not all the 20 A330-300s on order will be converted into A319s or A320s.

If GF gets (and it must with the age of its fleet) new aircraft for a long haul fleet they are going to be the B787s, so I doubt those 16 will get any less. All other orders are in doubt though.

[Edited 2011-10-29 11:32:48]
 
koreana380
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:16 am

Quoting malioil (Reply 22):

Also, there is a very strong possibility that some if not all the 20 A330-300s on order will be converted into A319s or A320s.

If that happens, do you think they will opt for NEO's?

Quoting malioil (Reply 22):

If GF gets (and it must with the age of its fleet) new aircraft for a long haul fleet they are going to be the B787s, so I doubt those 16 will get any less. All other orders are in doubt though.

I had read some time ago that Samer Majali was planning on transitioning Gulf Air into a regional carrier as he had come to the realization that his carrier simply couldn't compete against the likes of Emirates and Qatar Airways in the long haul market. So with that considered are their 787 orders really that secure?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 12:48 pm

From today's press release, looks like we're going t get some annoucements from at least Airbus:

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/new...ficient-aircraft-at-dubai-airshow/


"Airbus will hold several media briefings and announcements during the course of the show including an update of the Global Market Forecast for the Middle East. The general Airbus press conference will be held on Wednesday 16th November starting at 12:00 noon in the Dubai Airshow Press Conference Room 2 (in the East Hall). Airbus Military will give a press briefing on Tuesday 15th November starting at 11:00, also in Conference Room 2. "
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:09 pm

Citing "widespread leaks", AirInsight expects EK to order another large number of A380s while QR takes 10 A380s and the 50 NEOs which were previously expected in Paris. They also expect a "very good run" for the NEO in general.

http://www.airinsight.com

How would one define a "very good run" for the NEO these days?
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:37 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
QR takes 10 A380s



The article says they'll increase their commitment to ten in total. In other words, an additional five.

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
How would one define a "very good run" for the NEO these days?



In addition to the suggested 50 for QR, we could see Air Asia firm up the additional 100 they were talking about just after Paris, and there could easily be more orders from leasing companies. So maybe another 200-300? Anything more than that would be  Wow!   
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:41 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
How would one define a "very good run" for the NEO these days?
The A320neo numbers 50 and should be with the PW GTF engine.

What's a very good run for Pratt?

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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:46 pm

From Scbriml's link: It is possible BBD will have one or two other announcements, but don’t expect Qatar to be one of them. Al-Baker continues to torture BBD with contradictory public statements about his interest in the airplane. We are all but certain BBD won’t land Qatar at Dubai.

First, I laughed at the desciption of QR's on/off interest in the C-series. I do wonder if Bombardier might pull one or two more orders out of the hat? I hope so!   

Quoting scbriml (Reply 26):
In other words, an additional five.

Hey, in this economy, 5 A380 isn't anything to sneeze at. Not huge, but I'll again state that I believe the A380 production rate must be significantly increased to garner large orders. An airline placing a large order wants quick initial delivery and rapid introduction into the fleet to minimize per-airframe costs.

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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:48 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 24):
From today's press release, looks like we're going t get some annoucements from at least Airbus:

From that press release:

Quote:
In addition, Airbus will display an Al Jaber operated ACJ318 and a Comlux operated ACJ320, which have the widest and tallest cabins of any corporate jet, for the duration of the show.

??? I am not a native speaker as you all know, but are they are seriously saying that the ACJ 318 and the ACJ 320 will have "the widest cabins of any corporate jet for the duration of the show" or have they forgotten that Airbus themselves and their competitor from the other side of the Atlantic ocean are selling corporate jets, which - correct me if I am wrong - have of course wider cabins.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:27 am

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
Citing "widespread leaks", AirInsight expects EK to order another large number of A380s while QR takes 10 A380s

Could this mean that the A380 order-book will once again increase year-on?
Sounds fantastic!

Quoting scbriml (Reply 26):
In addition to the suggested 50 for QR, we could see Air Asia firm up the additional 100 they were talking about just after Paris, and there could easily be more orders from leasing companies. So maybe another 200-300?

And yet are still some people who wonder why Airbus launched the NEO and how successful it is.
 

Anyway .. thanks for the update.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:23 pm

I didn't see the story of EK's financial reporting from yesterday which showed a 79% drop in net income, attributed by the writer to excess capacity...it would seem an odd time to order another 30 A380s when you still have 73 left to be delivered. And it's not like slots are disappearing like the NEO. I suppose any shifting of the limelight away from Dubai might be reason for another $35B+ order from EK.

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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:21 pm

It was a 76% drop    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...tes-earnings-idUSL5E7M12UJ20111103 Disappointing result nonetheless.

With the delay in the A350-1000 program, I can see a an order from EK for aircraft to be delivered in the 2015-2016 timeframe, to meet their growth target. But with A380 deliveries scheduled into 2017, I really wonder why they should order more now...

[Edited 2011-11-04 06:23:17]

[Edited 2011-11-04 06:27:38]
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:30 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 28):
Hey, in this economy, 5 A380 isn't anything to sneeze at.

Absolutely not.   

Quoting wingman (Reply 31):
I didn't see the story of EK's financial reporting from yesterday which showed a 79% drop in net income, attributed by the writer to excess capacity...

A more balanced view from Reuters.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...tes-earnings-idUSL5E7M12UJ20111103

Quote:
Sheikh Ahmed said the airline paid an additional $1 billion in fuel costs compared to a year ago. Fuel typically accounts for a third of an airline's operating costs. Emirates said fuel costs took up 41 percent of total operating costs in its half-year results, up from 33 percent in the prior-year period.

Brent crude, which peaked this year at around $127 in February, was some 30 percent higher during Emirates reporting period this year over 2010.

Revenue was up 15% and passenger numbers continue to grow. Excess capacity?   
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chiad
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:12 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 33):
Revenue was up 15% and passenger numbers continue to grow. Excess capacity?

Doesn't have to be. We'll have to look at the load factor for that.
It could simply be higher cost without the ability to raise fares?!?
Much of the Middle East has not really been calm lately.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:18 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 34):
We'll have to look at the load factor for that.

Load factor was down marginally from, I think 81% to 79%. But, more revenue from more passengers doesn't suggest over-capacity to me.
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wingman
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:20 pm

The comment on capacity is right in there. Load factors are down. Maybe that analyst has his head up his ass. I'm just pointing it out. Any way you cut it..ordering 30 new 380s when you already have quadruple your existing type to be delivered is what Greenspan would call irrational exuberance. Or it's all just the latest salvo in the mega billion dollar penis size contest. But since EK already won that contest it must be the former
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:26 pm

Speaking of Dubai... Has anyone seen this bit of news?

"Dubai Aerospace Said to Seek $3.3 Billion Boeing Order Shift"

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-3-billion-boeing-order-shift.html

Looks like they want to switch all 747-8F's for 777F's.
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:04 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 36):

Well, you know, I suspect that EK's management has a much better idea of how to run arguably the World's most successful airline than any analyst. If they think now is a good time to order an additional 30 A380s, then they will.
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chiad
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:07 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 37):
Looks like they want to switch all 747-8F's for 777F's.

Oh no! That's not good!
 
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Ferminios
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:17 am

Maybe we can see WY ordering a few extra A330s or ordering some A350s? Last time I heard they were evaluating their 787 orders (or at least demanding compensation from Boeing, but that's nothing more than logical) since the first one is now due late 2014 at the earliest.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:37 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
QR - 5-10 additional A380, 30 or so NEO family.

EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
Perhaps the launch of the A380-900?
  
Quoting flood (Reply 25):

Citing "widespread leaks", AirInsight expects EK to order another large number of A380s while QR takes 10 A380s and the 50 NEOs which were previously expected in Paris. They also expect a "very good run" for the NEO in general.

What do you guys think of the fact that Airbus doesn't even bother to bring its flagship to the show this year. Coincidence?
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flash330
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:00 pm

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 41):

How many test aircraft do they have? Because remember one is doing the Trent xwb tests at the moment
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:05 pm

Quoting flash330 (Reply 42):

How many test aircraft do they have? Because remember one is doing the Trent xwb tests at the moment

Thank you, that could very well be the reason. Is the new engine fitted to F-WWDD? Anyone with more info on this?
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:05 pm

Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 41):
What do you guys think of the fact that Airbus doesn't even bother to bring its flagship to the show this year.

I don't think it means anything.   
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hal9213
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:15 pm

For me, the only thing making sense for EK to order is more 77W to bridge the gap between the current last 77W delivery and first, possibly further delayed, A350-1000 delivery. Note that they not only plan to expand, but also replace their existing old aircrafts, with -Clark explicitly said- 77W.
 
sf260
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:41 pm

Quoting hal9213 (Reply 45):
Note that they not only plan to expand, but also replace their existing old aircrafts, with -Clark explicitly said- 77W.

Clark said they expect to replace 58 (IIRC) aircraft, they still have 40+ 77W on order and of course new A380s will also free up more 77W's.
I can also see an EK order for more 777 (I have been saying that for a while now), not to replace existing aircraft, but to bridge the cap until the A350 arrives. The -1000 has been delayed 2 years, the -900 6 months (so far), it's like impossible this wouldn't have an effect on EK's future fleet strategy, it's either delaying phase-out of aircraft or order new ones...
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:56 pm

Quoting sf260 (Reply 46):
I can also see an EK order for more 777 (I have been saying that for a while now), not to replace existing aircraft, but to bridge the cap until the A350 arrives. The -1000 has been delayed 2 years, the -900 6 months (so far), it's like impossible this wouldn't have an effect on EK's future fleet strategy, it's either delaying phase-out of aircraft or order new ones...

And not just EK. Expect a top-up order from QR for 777s as well.
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:11 pm

I am not sure if this has been posted somewhere else before but Reuters is saying now that Qatar will make an announcement for 5 additional A 380s and about 50 A 320s: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Qat...etukfocus-2770643255.html?x=0&.v=1

PS.: there is also information about the long awaited engine selection for QR's A 380s but I don't want to post it because I am afraid it will make somebody very dissapointed. Just click the link yourself.
 
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RE: Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders

Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:55 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 48):
there is also information about the long awaited engine selection for QR's A 380s but I don't want to post it because I am afraid it will make somebody very dissapointed.

NOT ME!   

and to award an engine contract for the planes to Engine Alliance, a joint venture between GE and Pratt & Whitney

Finally EA wins a new airline... it feels like it has been forever. RR has a good product, but so is the GP7200.

Maybe it is the hot/high durability?     

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