hiflyeras
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AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 2:32 pm

As many were predicting, AS is not finished expanding into Hawaii. Daily service from both SJC and OAK to HNL begins on April 10th, 2012. I'm sure that strong bookings SAN-HNL took a part in this decision to add more HNL service.

http://splash.alaskasworld.com/Newsr...s/ASstories/AS_20111101_063158.asp
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 2:48 pm

You made the call Tom! I got your hint in the other thread.

Interesting to see how AS and HA do in the competition.

What's next for AS?
 
mikesairways
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:57 pm

It definitely will get interesting, with HA starting OGG in 2012. A little competition is good and it looks like the demand is there. Now if AS will only add points to destinations east.

Anyone know if AS/QX has considered adding RNO once Southwest cuts that route?
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
hiflyeras
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:07 pm

Quoting mikesairways (Reply 2):
Anyone know if AS/QX has considered adding RNO once Southwest cuts that route?

The only city AS/QX serves RNO from is SEA. RNO has had a tough time the last few years and has lost a lot of service ...I don't see that changing. People interested in gaming now go to LAS...people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.  
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:08 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 3):
people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.

Only partially true, but I know what you mean. RNO is the gateway to some incredible ski areas and great outdoors activity. It's close to Lake Tahoe and interesting places like Virginia City. I personally have no use at all for the ugly sleaziness of LAS, except to get out of that hell hole as fast as I can on my way to places like Zion National Park.

Back to topic, it appears that AS is willing to go head to head with HA on routes outside SEA. Not much more Hawaii service that they can add from SJC and OAK. They've got all the main islands covered.

Without looking, let see if I can write all of AS's Hawaii routes. Can anyone fill in comments about how each route is performing?

ANC-HNL
ANC-OGG
BLI-HNL
SEA-HNL
SEA-LIH
SEA-OGG
SEA-KOA
PDX-HNL
PDX-OGG
PDX-KOA
SMF-OGG
OAK-HNL
OAK-LIH
OAK-OGG
OAK-KOA
SJC-HNL
SJC-LIH
SJC-OGG
SJC-KOA
SAN-HNL
SAN-OGG

Pretty impressive, huh? What's next?
 
mikesairways
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:29 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 3):
The only city AS/QX serves RNO from is SEA. RNO has had a tough time the last few years and has lost a lot of service ...I don't see that changing. People interested in gaming now go to LAS...people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.

Call me a dreamer - but I bet the Q400 would be a great fit to start a TVL service.
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:34 pm

Quoting mikesairways (Reply 5):

Call me a dreamer - but I bet the Q400 would be a great fit to start a TVL service.

That's been stated before, along with CCR. Some people posted that neither airport allows commercial service anymore. But yeah, a QX Q400 would make a great modern day replacement for PSA and Air California Electras providing service to TVL.

I could see SEA-TVL (maybe seasonally); LAX-TVL, SFO-TVL and SJC-TVL working.
 
mikesairways
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:43 pm

In the 90's there was Tahoe Air that flew 73S SJC/LAX to TVL. It was somewhat short lived, but still.
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:59 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 4):
Pretty impressive, huh? What's next?

Yes, VERY impressive. That's 21 flts to the Islands out of 8 mainland cities.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 6:12 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 8):
That's 21 flts to the Islands out of 8 mainland cities.

Yes, but some of those are more than one frequency a day, so it's more than 21. If you told me five years ago that AS would be flying SJC-LIH, as an extreme example I'd have told you that you are nuts. Heck, I'd have said that about SEA-HNL.

Any insider know how much more Hawaii expansion that AS plans?

As I summarized in another thread, I can see these happening:

BLI-OGG
PDX-LIH
SMF-KOA
SAN-KOA
SAN-LIH
ANC-KOA

Apparently, AS does NOT plan these for a number of reasons:

SEA-ITO
LGB-Hawaii
SNA-Hawaii
SFO-Hawaii
LAX-Hawaii
 
hiflyeras
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:41 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):

BLI-OGG
PDX-LIH
SMF-KOA
SAN-KOA
SAN-LIH
ANC-KOA

Of these, I'd say the least chance would be ANC-KOA or SMF-KOA, BLI-OGG and PDX-LIH a possibility but not daily. KOA and LIH just don't have the draw that OGG or HNL have. ANC- LIH / KOA would have to be x times per week as well. If ANC-OGG can't go daily then they never could.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:48 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 10):
KOA and LIH just don't have the draw that OGG or HNL

Not sure why. I like Kauai by far the best of any Hawaiian island. Anyway, do they take weight restrictions on OGG-ANC? That seems like an awfully long flight and OGG isn't the longest runway.
 
n7371f
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:54 pm

Anyone know or have any guesses what routes the aircraft are coming off for this service? They've got to come from somewhere...maybe further capacity reduction along the west coast?
 
SANFan
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:17 pm

With today's surprising announcement of both OAK and SJC service to HNL, I'm counting a/c for all the newly announced flights during the first 4 months of 2012.

I count at least 5 new planes needed for what has already been announced:
> the March 12 increases in the SJC-LIH/KOA service = 1 new 738
> the March 12 increases in the OAK-LIH/KOA service = 1 new 738
> the March 12 new SEA-MCI route = 1 new 73-something
> the April 10 new OAK-HNL flight = 1 new 738
> the April 10 new SJC-HNL flight = 1 new 738
> I keep hearing that some SEA-Hawaii routes are seeing (temporary?) increased capacity and
> Jan 8 is seeing 2 new r/t between SEA and BOI/GEG (I don't know the a/c type).

My latest info shows that AS is supposed to be receiving new 738s (or 739s?) in Jan, Feb, May, Oct, Nov & Dec. I have also heard that some of the 734s that were supposed to be returned to the leasors may not be.

Seems to me like a LOT of additional a/c are needed and the deliveries from Boeing are certainly not covering those increases in service. Can anyone disclose how this is all possible? Are there routes/flights being cancelled? A lot of seasonal service changes? Or maybe I'm just not counting things up correctly...

Thanks for setting me straight here.

bb
 
SANFan
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:28 pm

(Hey n737', like minds... hope someone can help us figure this out.)

bb
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:30 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):

Yes, but some of those are more than one frequency a day, so it's more than 21

Ugh, you're right. Amazing. Meanwhile, WN is sitting there staring out the window doing nothing. Congrats to AS!
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
n7371f
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:43 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
> Jan 8 is seeing 2 new r/t between SEA and BOI/GEG (I don't know the a/c type).

That's on the Q400...

I believe AS management mentioned the option of keeping the 737-400's due to go back to lessors but I don't think the decision date is early 2012...think it's mid to late year.

I'm gonna guess the planes are coming off SEA-California runs and maybe off SEA-ANC. I recently looked at AS' schedule south of SEA and was amazed at how much it has shrunk by frequencies. There are routes where the drop is upwards of 25% over just a few years ago.
 
SANFan
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:01 pm

Yeah, I think we should talk amongst ourselves while we wait for an answer.  
Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
That's on the Q400...

I wondered but there are so many flights already in those markets that I couldn't really tell which flights were new ones.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
I believe AS management mentioned the option of keeping the 737-400's due to go back to lessors but I don't think the decision date is early 2012...think it's mid to late year

That was also my understanding. So that whole issue shouldn't be affecting these first quarter additions.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
I'm gonna guess the planes are coming off SEA-California runs and maybe off SEA-ANC. I recently looked at AS' schedule south of SEA and was amazed at how much it has shrunk by frequencies. There are routes where the drop is upwards of 25% over just a few years ago

It's possible. I know that SAN's seasonal PVR flight ended last year right about the second week of April but what AS's done this year is simply use a SEA r/t to supply the a/c for the 3x weekly PVR flight. Therefore, unless they really cut the SAN-SEA service quite drastically, that shouldn't be providing any of the a/c for all these new flights...

As far as generally cutting SEA-CA flights starting in March and April, with VX and WN (to the Bay Area anyway) around, I can't imagine AS could risk cutting too much (more.) Interesting situation...

As I've said all along, I'm thrilled to see Chester doing so much new flying. It's just sometimes a mystery as to how he's managing to do it!

???

bb
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:08 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 17):
As I've said all along, I'm thrilled to see Chester doing so much new flying. It's just sometimes a mystery as to how he's managing to do it!

Because he's getting lei'd so much lately that it keeps him youthful and full of energy!  
 
hiflyeras
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:21 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 18):
Because he's getting lei'd so much lately that it keeps him youthful and full of energy!  

OMG that's a riot! LOL

So, there are three new -800 ETOPS coming as stated previously between January and May. One for MCI, one for SJC-HNL and one for OAK-HNL. Three -400's with expiring leases I assume are being held over a big longer. Winter reductions after Christmas on select non-sun and fun routes (ORD, DFW, MSP) will make a huge difference...reduce by one flight per day each and there's three a/c. There are two -900ER's coming late in the year.

I'm curious to see how this all gets pulled off come next May when the summer schedule with increased service to Alaska ramps up. I'm sure we'll see SEA/PDX-HNL/OGG return to only one or two flights daily so that's a huge help.
 
777fan
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:33 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):

Ugh, you're right. Amazing. Meanwhile, WN is sitting there staring out the window doing nothing. Congrats to AS!

I suspect that's only a matter of time and once it begins, I'd expect WN will have a tremendous feed into whatever West Coast point (LAX? OAK? SJC? SAN?) they decide to use. Naturally, I'm sure there are plenty more in the know and many more that will claim to be so, that can chime in on the matter.

777fan
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slcdeltarumd11
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:48 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
Seems to me like a LOT of additional a/c are needed and the deliveries from Boeing are certainly not covering those increases in service.

If Hawaii is profitable it makes sense for AS to rush in and get planes on those routes ASAP. With Allegiant and Southwest both saying they are interested in Hawaii flying it makes sense for AS to even pull planes off/downgrading plane sizes on mediocre routes to get some Hawaii markets on lock down that are profitable. Try to push Allegiant and Southwest to enter Hawaii from different cities. Make those smaller profitable ones on AS lockdown and loyalty and seem less attractive for the other guys to start which will make the non AS cities seem more attractive where theres more wiggle room for an additional player with lower costs. I think we really could see Allegiant launch Hawaii from LAX first and go against the legacies and go for the o&d that LAX has so much of to Hawaii. I think AS is making some smart moves here and beating people on the less competative cities that are actually making money.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:36 am

It's going to be sloppy seconds for G4 and WN by the time they get their @#*% together. Announcing their 'intentions' years in advance only empowered AS to be even more aggressive on the Hawaii expansion. They have over 120 flights a week today...by spring closer to 140 a week.

I can't imagine what will be left for G4....Fresno, Bakersfield, Eugene-HNL twice a week? Why bother going through all the expense of ETOPS and starting Hawaii for the scraps they'll be getting. Hotels ain't cheap in Hawaii either...their business model is for low-budget travelers.

WN is another story....they'll make a run at OAK/PHX/LAX to probably HNL and OGG but since it doesn't appear they've even started an ETOPS program (heck, they don't even see their first -800's until March '12) I don't see them up and running until 2013 at the earliest. If they were smart they'd start now in certifying some -700's and go from BUR and SNA initially as no one is doing that. It's going to be years by the time they're a factor.

By the time we see either of them AS will own the west coast to Hawaii. Arguably they already do now in just five short years. Does AS have more flights mainland-Hawaii than HA?
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:39 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 22):

It's going to be sloppy seconds for G4 and WN by the time they get their @#*% together

Agreed.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 22):
but since it doesn't appear they've even started an ETOPS program

Apparently, WN has completed or is nearly finished with the paperwork aspect of ETOPS certification, so that's good news. But again, can't do the proving runs until an -800 comes... that's in MAR '12.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
FATFlyer
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:08 am

I won't be surprised to see FAT to Hawaii 2 to 4 times per week, along with a few other cities.

I also expect G4 will likely do SCK to Hawaii easily 2 to 4 times per week. They've been marketing SCK-LAS in both the Sacramento and Livermore areas and drawing well from both. (Allegiant handled 50,632 pax at SCK in 2010, a 78% increase over 2009.) Cheaper parking at SCK (especially since SMF just raised parking rates again) for a week easily offsets the drive.

Allegiant attracts a higher demographic than many realize. G4 sells the convenience of non-stop from smaller cities which attacts more than low-budget travellers. Check the hotel list on the website and there are many higher price point hotels. The most recent management presentation put G4's customer mean income at over $104,000 per year.

More G4 customer demographics at the presentation slide:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...2468/000143774911006520/ex99-1.htm

Now if AS wanted to run 2 to 4 times per week thru FAT to Hawaii to keep the market from G4 I wouldn't object, either airline gives us a Hawaii nonstop.   
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
777fan
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:19 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 22):
It's going to be sloppy seconds for G4 and WN by the time they get their @#*% together.

G4, perhaps, but unlikely for WN - as mentioned before, they'll have plenty of loyal pax to feed into the flights, most of whom they probably don't expect to pull from the likes of AS, given WN's relatively soft presence in traditional AS strongholds. There's probably enough room for both.

777fan
DC-8 61/63/71 DC-9-30/50 MD-80/82/83 DC-10-10/30 MD-11 717 721/2 732/3/4/5/G/8/9 741/2/4 752 762/3 777 A306/319/20/33 AT
 
hiflyeras
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:47 am

Quoting 777fan (Reply 25):
they probably don't expect to pull from the likes of AS, given WN's relatively soft presence in traditional AS strongholds. There's probably enough room for both.

True....SW will be able to feed traffic from their mid-con cities (DEN, ABQ, DAL, BNA, etc) so they may need less local-boarding people. In that AS may be at a disadvantage as they're relying totally on local-boards. I don't see any sort of fare warSW might start hurting AS as they are already extremely aggressive vs. HA. Looking at random dates in the future to HNL out of OAK I found AS much cheaper. Departing April 11th AS $336rt, HA $662rt. Ouch!
 
wedgetail737
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:24 am

It's great to see AS adding even more West Coast - Hawaii flights. This is the most Hawaii flights both OAK and SJC will have in its history. If some of these flights prove successful, maybe we'll see higher frequency between some routes.
 
laca773
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 6:35 am

Does anyone know if AS will be placing extra fuel tanks in any of their new 739ERs? This would help these birds a lot during the strong head winds at certain times of the year if they want to upgauge certain flights on the busier days for these routes.
 
HPRamper
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 6:59 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 26):
True....SW will be able to feed traffic from their mid-con cities (DEN, ABQ, DAL, BNA, etc) so they may need less local-boarding people.

But...WN is not a connecting airline!!!
  

I think AS starting the Hawaii route from OAK was a great move to grab pax from a heavily WN station. If AS can manage to make loyal customers in WN-heavy stations then WN will rely more on connecting pax, which will go against the business model.

Kudos AS.
 
christao17
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 9:22 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 11):
Anyway, do they take weight restrictions on OGG-ANC? That seems like an awfully long flight and OGG isn't the longest runway.

According to Great Circle Mapper, ANC-OGG is only 160 miles longer than SEA-OGG and is within the range for the planes AS is sending on the route, so can't imagine that a weight restriction would be necessary.
Keeping the "civil" in civil aviation...
 
wedgetail737
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:00 pm

Quoting christao17 (Reply 30):
According to Great Circle Mapper, ANC-OGG is only 160 miles longer than SEA-OGG and is within the range for the planes AS is sending on the route, so can't imagine that a weight restriction would be necessary.

Weight restrictions or fuel stops become necessary when the Pineapple Express comes into play.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 29):
But...WN is not a connecting airline!!!


I think AS starting the Hawaii route from OAK was a great move to grab pax from a heavily WN station. If AS can manage to make loyal customers in WN-heavy stations then WN will rely more on connecting pax, which will go against the business model.

Since when has WN not been a connecting airline???? People make connections all the time in WN.
 
User avatar
RWA380
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:02 pm

G4 is your non-connecting carrier, not WN
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:11 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 24):
Now if AS wanted to run 2 to 4 times per week thru FAT to Hawaii to keep the market from G4 I wouldn't object, either airline gives us a Hawaii nonstop.

Given the apparent success of BLI-HNL, I've wondered if AS might try some more flights from secondary markets, maybe just once or twice a week. I wonder if something like these would work for them:

GEG-EUG-HNL
RNO-FAT-HNL
 
HPRamper
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:06 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 31):
Since when has WN not been a connecting airline???? People make connections all the time in WN.

That was tongue-in-cheek given all the recent flamewars regarding WN hubs.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 33):
Given the apparent success of BLI-HNL, I've wondered if AS might try some more flights from secondary markets, maybe just once or twice a week. I wonder if something like these would work for them:

GEG-EUG-HNL
RNO-FAT-HNL

AS needs more planes before they could even think about it.
 
LV
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:31 pm

I'm wondering if AS isn't making behind the scenes moves to secure more lift for the SEA/PDX - California/Mexico flying so it can throw every ETOPS 738 it can get it's hands on at Hawaii to saturate that market before the competitors get there. I could see possible deals including taking some second hand 734's or 73G's for very low lease rates or signing a deal with RP to supply some flying with the 190's that just can't seem to find a purpose with F9.
 
yeelep
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:48 pm

Quoting laca773 (Reply 28):
Does anyone know if AS will be placing extra fuel tanks in any of their new 739ERs? This would help these birds a lot during the strong head winds at certain times of the year if they want to upgauge certain flights on the busier days for these routes.

There are currently no plans to have the 739ER's ETOPS equipped. I may be wrong, but I don't think the planes will have additional fuel tanks.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 31):
Weight restrictions or fuel stops become necessary when the Pineapple Express comes into play.

There is a plan to mitigate if not eliminate the fuel stops. We'll see how it works out this winter.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:50 pm

Quoting yeelep (Reply 36):
There is a plan to mitigate if not eliminate the fuel stops. We'll see how it works out this winter.

Can you elaborate?

Quoting yeelep (Reply 36):
There are currently no plans to have the 739ER's ETOPS equipped. I may be wrong, but I don't think the planes will have additional fuel tanks.

Why would they need the -900ERs ETOPS? AS has enough -800s to fly to Hawaii until Chester's heart is content. The -900ERs can then backfill the -800s on non-overwater routes.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:54 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 29):
I think AS starting the Hawaii route from OAK was a great move to grab pax from a heavily WN station. If AS can manage to make loyal customers in WN-heavy stations then WN will rely more on connecting pax, which will go against the business model.

Yeah i think AS is trying to make WN and Allegiants entry into OAK/SJC less attractive and taking on the O&D of LAX/SFO-HNL and the higher cost legacies more attractive. I think Allegiant is gonna roll into LAX-HNL and stir things up for the legacies before WN even has a chance to. I think WN entry to Hawaii is gonna become the distant future and they have bigger things to decide and handle right now.

Quoting LV (Reply 35):

I'm wondering if AS isn't making behind the scenes moves to secure more lift for the SEA/PDX - California/Mexico flying so it can throw every ETOPS 738 it can get it's hands on at Hawaii to saturate that market before the competitors get there

I doubt it. I think AS is just going to try to secure the profitable flights and get those on lock down not to try to totally saturate the overall west cost-hawaii market. AS only needs to make its chosen airports less attractive they really dont care if WN or Allegiant rolls into the huge O&D pools of LAX or SFO since they will steal from the legacies. AS just needs to make its smaller more unique gateways on lock down and they are the airports that would be harder for new additional players to operate from generally speaking.
 
n471wn
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:59 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 38):
I think WN entry to Hawaii is gonna become the distant future

I do not think so as the Mainland to Hawaii market is so underserved now that there is much room for more growth and WN will "grow the total market" just as they always do

What AS is doing is causing quite a positive buzz here in the San Francisco Bay Area---the new AS flights were on the news last night and people who remember the ATA and Aloha good days are ready to start going back to Hawaii.......this is a win-win for all involved
 
yeelep
Posts: 727
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:53 pm

RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 5:54 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):
Quoting yeelep (Reply 36):
There is a plan to mitigate if not eliminate the fuel stops. We'll see how it works out this winter.

Can you elaborate?

A potential change to the ETOPS program as it applies to the 737NG. I don't think I should be any more specific.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):
AS has enough -800s to fly to Hawaii until Chester's heart is content.

Not true, they're still converting non ETOPS 800's to ETOPS spec. My memories vague, but I think the goal is 47 ETOPS planes by the end of 2012, up from 38 today.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 6:00 pm

Quoting yeelep (Reply 40):
Not true, they're still converting non ETOPS 800's to ETOPS spec. My memories vague, but I think the goal is 47 ETOPS planes by the end of 2012, up from 38 today.

Isn't that kind of what I was saying?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 6:34 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 39):
I do not think so as the Mainland to Hawaii market is so underserved now that there is much room for more growth and WN will "grow the total market" just as they always do

I totally agree i think both Allegiant and Southwest stimulate the market with lower one way and last minute fares generally speaking but they are also gonna steal customers or make the legacies lower their fares [particularly the non-advanced purchase fares.

I think Allegiant has some real potential to Hawaii from LAX and LAS particularly and they will rake in money off the packages as always and sell the plane tickets cheap as always barely making any money off the seats. I think the Allegiant model will be perfect for the Hawaii market.

AS again was smart to lock down the profitable markets. They havn't gone after LGB yet and i think it has some problems but if they could get a jetblue link for connections this would open alot of doors for them. Its not a good Allegiant market for multiple reasons and it would be better for Alaska especially if they could get a jetblue link somehow. They do have their own SAN service and tickets from LAX available to hawaii on alaskair.com via connections or AA so they do have some options in the general area already. LGB seems like a long shot especially since they didn't go in on the last slot auction but every other airport carrier did.
 
yeelep
Posts: 727
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:53 pm

RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 7:15 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 41):

Ah, I misunderstood your point. There's 20 more that could potentially be converted. However they aren't as easily converted as they weren't configured for ETOPS as delivered. So the low hanging fruit has been picked. The next two conversions are being done in c-check instead of SEA, due to the more involved process/time out of service.
 
HPRamper
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 7:26 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 42):
I totally agree i think both Allegiant and Southwest stimulate the market with lower one way and last minute fares generally speaking but they are also gonna steal customers or make the legacies lower their fares [particularly the non-advanced purchase fares.

Walk-up fares are great for WN...but I don't see them being much of a factor if at all on Hawaii routings. Last-minute vacation bookings are not really a good idea  
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 1474
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Wed Nov 02, 2011 10:21 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 44):
Walk-up fares are great for WN...but I don't see them being much of a factor if at all on Hawaii routings. Last-minute vacation bookings are not really a good idea

Good point. Who decides the day prior to take off to Hawaii for a week?

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 42):

...both Allegiant and Southwest stimulate the market with lower one way and last minute fares generally speaking but they are also gonna steal customers or make the legacies lower their fares [particularly the non-advanced purchase fares.

I don't understand why people STILL continue to think of SW as having 'low fares'. In many cases their fares are higher than their competitors.
 
777fan
Posts: 2256
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 12:09 pm

RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:25 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 39):
I do not think so as the Mainland to Hawaii market is so underserved now that there is much room for more growth and WN will "grow the total market" just as they always do

What AS is doing is causing quite a positive buzz here in the San Francisco Bay Area---the new AS flights were on the news last night and people who remember the ATA and Aloha good days are ready to start going back to Hawaii.......this is a win-win for all involved

Underserved? Hmmm, not sure about that. If anything, the capacity's probably about "just right" at least until the overall economy picks up again. Assuming that's at least a couple of years off, I'd argue WN will have timed their entry have timed things pretty well, HA will have built some brand recognition east of LAS, DL will maintain a solid presence thanks in part to SLC, and UA/CO (UA) will continue dominate the Diamond Head concourse and tout its storied history of service in the Isles. AA on the other hand, well, who knows what they're up to. That said, I wonder if there'll come a point where some carriers' reliance upon single-aisle narrow bodies will begin to work against them, i.e., should capacity, not frequencies and/or number of points of origin, become a driver.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 44):
Walk-up fares are great for WN...but I don't see them being much of a factor if at all on Hawaii routings. Last-minute vacation bookings are not really a good idea

Yes, but if the price is right... (particularly if it's a package deal and your reservations are confirmed). More importantly, with WN's no-penalty cancellation policy, it might actually be a decent proposition.

777fan
DC-8 61/63/71 DC-9-30/50 MD-80/82/83 DC-10-10/30 MD-11 717 721/2 732/3/4/5/G/8/9 741/2/4 752 762/3 777 A306/319/20/33 AT
 
n7371f
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RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:14 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 45):
I don't understand why people STILL continue to think of SW as having 'low fares'. In many cases their fares are higher than their competitors.

   Southwest is fooling a lot of people.
 
ha763
Posts: 3168
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 5:36 pm

RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:15 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 37):

Why would they need the -900ERs ETOPS? AS has enough -800s to fly to Hawaii until Chester's heart is content. The -900ERs can then backfill the -800s on non-overwater routes.

IF, and it is a big if, AS wants more capacity on a Hawaii route without adding another flight. The 900ER doesn't need the extra tanks for a cross-country flight, but needs it for a ETOPS flight to Hawaii. When CO tried the 900ER on LAX-HNL, they had to block a good number of seats and could barely make it since they also don't have extra fuel tanks on their 900ERs.

Quoting yeelep (Reply 40):
A potential change to the ETOPS program as it applies to the 737NG. I don't think I should be any more specific.

Sounds like they are working to change the the 737NG ETOPS requirement that causes the NGs to burn more fuel.
 
Hamlet69
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Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:15 am

BoeingGuy,

How about this one:

PAE-HNL.  

Haha. Maybe one day, once all the NIMBY's are dead. :-/

Regards,

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.