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enilria
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OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:04 pm

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

What is this?
6G FLL-ASD DEC 0>0.6 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.3
6G FLL-CCZ DEC 0.5>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3 MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3
6G FLL-GHC DEC 0>0.6 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>0.6 JUL 0>0.6
6G FLL-RSD DEC 0>0.5 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.5 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4
6G FLL-TBI DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.5

9K EYW-RSW JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7 MAR 6>7 APR 6>7 JUN 6>4 JUL 6>0

Looks like more crew shortage related temp cuts
AA BOS-LHR DEC 1.8>1.6
AA DFW-SAN DEC 9>8
AA DFW-SCL DEC 1.2>1.0 JAN 1.4>1.3
AA DFW-SFO DEC 11>10
AA DFW-SNA DEC 10>9
*AA JFK-BUD DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.5>0.4
AA JFK-PLS DEC 1.0>0.5
AA JFK-PUJ DEC 1.0>0.3
AA LAX-JFK DEC 10>9
AA LAX-PVG DEC 0.9>0.8
AA LAX-SFO DEC 6>5
*AA LAX-SJU DEC 0.3>0
AA MIA-CCS DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5
AA MIA-EZE DEC 3>2
*AA MIA-VLN DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0
AA ORD-BOS DEC 8>7
AA ORD-LAS DEC 5>4
AA ORD-LGA DEC 14>13

AC MCO-YUL DEC 1.5>1.3
AC PHX-YYZ DEC 1.8>1.6
AC RSW-YYZ DEC 1.7>1.5
AC TPA-YUL DEC 0.3>0.2

AF BOS-CDG MAY 1.8>1.1
*AF EWR-CDG MAR 0.8>0.5 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
AF SFO-CDG APR 1.0>0.9

AM MIA-CUN DEC 2>1.8 JAN 2>0.6 FEB 3>0 MAR 2>1.7
AM SAT-MEX DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
AM SFO-GDL JAN 0.4>0.2 FEB 0.4>0

*AS OAK-HNL APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
AS PDX-MFR MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
*AS SJC-HNL APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

B6 BOS-STI JAN 0.3>0.5
B6 JFK-KIN JAN 1.1>1.2
B6 JFK-MBJ JAN 1.1>1.4 FEB 1.3>1.5
B6 JFK-SFO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>4 MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3

CO CLE-PVD FEB 3>1.7
CO CLE-STL FEB 2>3
CO EWR-SEA FEB 4>3
CO IAH-CLT FEB 6>5
CO IAH-LEX FEB 1.5>1.0
CO IAH-YEG FEB 1.0>1.5 MAR 1.0>1.8 APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 1.0>1.9 JUN 1.0>1.2
CO LAX-EWR FEB 7>6
CO LAX-HNL FEB 1.5>1.1
CO LAX-HNL FEB 1.5>1.1
CO SFO-CLE FEB 1.5>1.0

*DL ATL-GYE FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 1.0>0
DL BOS-RDU MAR 4>5 APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
DL CVG-SEA JAN 0.9>0.6
DL CVG-SFO JAN 1.0>0.6
DL DTW-MKE JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
DL FSD-MSP MAY 6>7
DL LAX-MSP MAY 6>7
DL MOT-MSP MAY 6>7
DL MSP-CUN APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.1>0
DL SLC-PSC JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
DL SLC-SUN APR 4>3 MAY 4>3

EI JFK-DUB DEC 1.9>1.8

More cuts driven by fleet more than seasonality I think
F9 DEN-ABQ JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
F9 DEN-AUS JAN 3>1.8
F9 DEN-BKG FEB 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA JAN 3>1.8 FEB 3>1.9
F9 DEN-CUN JAN 1.3>1.1 FEB 1.3>1.2
*F9 DEN-DRO JAN 3>1.2 FEB 3>1.0
F9 DEN-HOU JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.6
F9 DEN-LAX JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5
F9 DEN-MDW JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
*F9 DEN-OMA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>3
F9 DEN-PDX JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
F9 DEN-PSP MAY 0.4>0.2
F9 DEN-SAT JAN 1.9>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0
F9 DEN-SEA JAN 5>4
*F9 MCI-SAT JAN 0.6>0.1

G4 ABE-SFB MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 ATW-LAS MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-GFK MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-MLI MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 AZA-MOT JUN 0.6>0.4
G4 AZA-PIA MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-RFD JUN 0.6>0.4
G4 BIL-LAS MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 CHA-PIE MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 CHA-SFB MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 DSM-LAS MAY 0.8>0.5 JUN 0.9>0.6 JUL 0.8>0.6
G4 FLL-GRR MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.2
G4 FSD-LAX MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.2
G4 GRR-LAS MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 GRR-SFB MAY 0.6>0.3 JUN 0.5>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3
G4 GSO-SFB MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 HTS-SFB MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 LAS-MSO MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 LAS-RFD MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 LEX-PGD JUN 0.6>0.4
G4 LEX-SFB MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 MLI-PIE MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 PBG-PIE MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-SBN MAY 0.7>0.3 JUN 0.7>0.3 JUL 0.7>0.3
G4 PIE-TOL MAY 0.6>0.3 JUN 0.5>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3
G4 RFD-SFB APR 0.7>0.5 MAY 0.7>0.3 JUN 0.7>0.3 JUL 0.7>0.3
G4 SBN-SFB APR 0.8>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.3 JUN 0.7>0.3 JUL 0.7>0.3
G4 SFB-TOL MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3

IB MIA-MAD FEB 1.5>1.3

SQ LAX-SIN APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7

SY MSP-CUN FEB 1.7>1.9 MAR 1.9>3

TS FLL-YQB DEC 0.2>0.4 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.5 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.5
TS FLL-YUL DEC 0.2>0.6 JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.3 MAR 0>1.2 APR 0>0.9
TS FLL-YYZ JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4
TS MCO-YQB MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.1
TS MCO-YUL JAN 0.2>0.4 FEB 0.2>0.6 MAR 0.3>0.7 APR 0.2>0.6
TS MCO-YYZ DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.6

The cuts for MAR are surprising
UA DEN-ABQ MAR 7>6
UA DEN-ASE MAR 12>11
UA DEN-EGE FEB 4>5 MAR 3>5
UA DEN-HLN FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 1.8>0.8
UA DEN-MCI MAR 6>7
UA DEN-MLI MAR 2>3
UA DEN-MSO MAR 4>3
UA DEN-OGG FEB 0.1>0.6
UA DEN-ONT MAR 3>2 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
UA DEN-SNA APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
UA DEN-TUS MAR 5>6
UA DEN-XNA FEB 1.4>1.0 MAR 1.8>1.0
UA IAD-ACC APR 1.0>0.6 MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7
UA IAD-DME APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.9
UA IAD-PNS MAR 1.6>1.0
UA IAD-PWM MAR 3>2
UA IAD-RIC FEB 5>4 MAR 4>3
UA LAX-ELP FEB 1.5>1.0
UA LAX-KOA FEB 1.0>1.5
UA ORD-ABE MAR 4>3
UA ORD-ATL MAR 6>7
UA ORD-AUS MAR 4>3
UA ORD-BOI FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 2>1.0
UA ORD-BTV MAR 4>3
UA ORD-BUF MAR 6>5
UA ORD-BWI FEB 5>4 MAR 6>4
UA ORD-CHS MAR 4>3
UA ORD-CID MAR 6>5
UA ORD-COS MAR 5>4
UA ORD-ELP FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 2>1.0
UA ORD-GSO MAR 5>4
UA ORD-GSP MAR 4>3
UA ORD-HSV FEB 1.3>0.8 MAR 1.6>0.6
UA ORD-ICT MAR 5>4
UA ORD-IND MAR 8>9
UA ORD-LAS MAR 5>6
UA ORD-LAX MAR 13>12
UA ORD-MDT FEB 5>4 MAR 6>4
UA ORD-MLI MAR 7>6
UA ORD-ORF MAR 6>4
UA ORD-PDX MAR 4>5
UA ORD-PIT MAR 5>4
*UA ORD-PNS FEB 0.6>0.1 MAR 1.0>0.2
UA ORD-ROC MAR 6>5
UA ORD-SAT MAR 4>3
UA ORD-SEA MAR 6>5
UA ORD-SYR FEB 5>4 MAR 6>4
UA ORD-TPA MAR 4>5
UA ORD-TUL MAR 5>4
UA ORD-YEG MAR 3>2
UA ORD-YVR MAR 4>1.8
UA SFO-YYJ FEB 1.5>1.0

US CLT-CUN FEB 4>3
US DCA-ILM JAN 0.4>0.3
US PHL-CUN FEB 4>3
US PHL-CVG JAN 5>6
US PHL-NAS FEB 1.2>1.0
US PHL-YOW FEB 5>4

W3 JFK-LOS APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4

YV HNL-ITO DEC 4>3 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
YV HNL-OGG DEC 6>7
 
globalflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:05 pm

I believe that 6G is the new Sun Air International that is flying out of FLL to the Bahamas.
http://www.gosunair.com/
The CEO was the founder of Gulfstream Int'l.
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jacobin777
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:12 pm

Thanks for the update enilria..  

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 JFK-SFO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>4 MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3

I wonder if this has to do with AA cutting one flight on the route and/or trying to establish themselves more in the SFO area...  .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-LGA DEC 14>13

According to DL's timetable, they are cutting this from 12 daily to 8 daily (8 daily starts on 12-17-2011 according to DL's timetables). DL will be increasing it back up in 2012.

Looks like a seasonal reduction.
"Up the Irons!"
 
Italianflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:52 pm

Those are some interesting UA cuts in March '12.....obviously UAx reductions. Does anyone know if this indicates OO culling more 50 seaters in the spring?
 
point2point
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:21 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-ABQ JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
F9 DEN-AUS JAN 3>1.8
F9 DEN-BKG FEB 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA JAN 3>1.8 FEB 3>1.9
F9 DEN-CUN JAN 1.3>1.1 FEB 1.3>1.2
*F9 DEN-DRO JAN 3>1.2 FEB 3>1.0
F9 DEN-HOU JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.6
F9 DEN-LAX JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5
F9 DEN-MDW JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
*F9 DEN-OMA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>3
F9 DEN-PDX JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
F9 DEN-PSP MAY 0.4>0.2
F9 DEN-SAT JAN 1.9>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0
F9 DEN-SEA JAN 5>4
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-ABQ MAR 7>6
UA DEN-ASE MAR 12>11
UA DEN-EGE FEB 4>5 MAR 3>5
UA DEN-HLN FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 1.8>0.8
UA DEN-MCI MAR 6>7
UA DEN-MLI MAR 2>3
UA DEN-MSO MAR 4>3
UA DEN-OGG FEB 0.1>0.6
UA DEN-ONT MAR 3>2 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
UA DEN-SNA APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
UA DEN-TUS MAR 5>6
UA DEN-XNA FEB 1.4>1.0 MAR 1.8>1.0



With about 13-14 daily cuts from F9 here, and another 4-5 from UA (plus all of those from previous weeks from both F9 and UA) and with WN not really doing much other than adding maybe a single flight from a new city here and there, and the rest of the other carriers also not doing really anything much one way or the other, could it be that the situation in DEN has stabilized somewhat, and maybe will right-size itself to continue supporting the hubs for three airlines?

However, I do worry most about F9. They seem to be cutting to a point where maybe now a lot of their connecting possibilities get reduced. Although on the other hand, maybe time to focus on the O&D, and start getting more revenue out of the flights that they do have? Let both UA and WN take the less-revenue producing connections. This could be a real big improvement for F9 in itself.
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA LAX-ELP FEB 1.5>1.0

I fly this route all the time. I've done it on WN (standing room only), on AE (full plane), and OO-UAX (late plane, cancelled flight, plane gone mx) . UAX seem to be deliberately driving customers away through incompetent dispatching on the LAX-ELP route.

Last Saturday I actually bought a safety one-way LAX-ELP ticket on AE rather than risking getting stranded at LAX. Chatting on the AE plane while flying back to El Paso, it would appear several other passengers had done the same thing.

It's all very frustrating for passengers who want to remain Mileage Plus.
 
FlyingSicilian
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:53 pm

IAH-YEG is up? Has that happened before on this route?

Is Texas-Alberta traffice increasing due to oil sands/energy demand?
how is IAH-YYC doing on CO/AC or DFW YYC?

Alberta, the Texas of Canada   or is it Texas the Alberta of America? j/k
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
miaami
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:59 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-GYE FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 1.0>0

Is this going seasonal or is DL pulling out of GYE?
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:01 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 6):
Is Texas-Alberta traffic increasing due to oil sands/energy demand?
how is IAH-YYC doing on CO/AC or DFW YYC?

Calgary ( YYC ) is often referred to as Canada's Denver.

So I guess Alberta would be Canada's Colorado.   
 
flyingcat
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:05 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 2):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 JFK-SFO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>4 MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3

I wonder if this has to do with AA cutting one flight on the route and/or trying to establish themselves more in the SFO area...  .

Another factor is VX is now 5x daily. Although B6 should not worry since the only overlap they have with VX is leisure pax. VX is looking to take more share on the business and agency side from AA, UA and DL.
 
flyb
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:08 pm

Alberta is Canada's Texas. This is the first time this route has gone twice daily. Odd second flight, leaves at midnight for IAH. Probably designed to pick up passengers from up north after their shift is finished. Nice to see the routes upgraded this year to a 737-800 as well.

Still no flights to DFW from Edmonton, thought they would have a route there by now. Maybe with the Alliance with AA this will change.
 
SCL767
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:14 pm

Quoting miaami (Reply 7):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-GYE FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 1.0>0

Is this going seasonal or is DL pulling out of GYE?

It appears that DL is dropping its weekly service into Guayaquil. Not surprising...
 
sw733
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA JFK-PLS DEC 1.0>0.5

Right at the start of high season in Turks & Caicos. Interesting...
 
smoot4208
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-SJU DEC 0.3>0

I could see this route not coming back.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-GYE FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 1.0>0

Surprised cut here.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

YV HNL-ITO DEC 4>3 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4

I not sure I even see them around 1 year from now. With their CR2 flying gone from UA last year, set to expire with US this winter, I'm not sure they want to hang onto 4-5 CRJs just for this operation
 
flyguy89
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:44 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-SJU DEC 0.3>0

This route has always perplexed me. IIRC this is a route started by and inherited from TWA, but it seems like a long, thin, low-yielding route. Could somebody perhaps expand on this? Is there a large Puerto Rican population in LA or are there some business ties between the two cities? If airlines are having a tough time making a go of CUN, it just surprises me that LAX-SJU exists at all.
 
kingcavalier
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
More cuts driven by fleet more than seasonality I think

Not sure why you see the F9 reductions in a different light. It appears all airlines are cutting capacity during the slower shoulder season. I think the F9 seasonal reductions are right in line with what the industry is doing. It pleases me to see F9 cutting flying during the unprofitable time of year.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
 
jacobin777
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:07 pm

Quoting flyingcaT (Reply 9):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 JFK-SFO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>4 MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3

I wonder if this has to do with AA cutting one flight on the route and/or trying to establish themselves more in the SFO area... .

Another factor is VX is now 5x daily. Although B6 should not worry since the only overlap they have with VX is leisure pax. VX is looking to take more share on the business and agency side from AA, UA and DL.

True...  .

AA at one point though needs to start defending its "turf" - after all, New York is one of their "cornerstone" cities.

I think AA is cutting a frequency due to pilot shortages and/or C/D checks on their B767's as well. According to AA's schedule, they will add the 5th flight back.

There was a discussion of this on flyertalk.
"Up the Irons!"
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:09 pm

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 1):
I believe that 6G is the new Sun Air International that is flying out of FLL to the Bahamas.
http://www.gosunair.com/
The CEO was the founder of Gulfstream Int'l.

Unsurprising lineage.  
Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 2):

Thanks for the update enilria..  

 
Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 2):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 JFK-SFO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>4 MAR 1.8>3 APR 1.9>3

I wonder if this has to do with AA cutting one flight on the route and/or trying to establish themselves more in the SFO area...  .

2 RTs is pretty pitiful in that market regardless of the time of the year. I think all the airlines are guilty of looking more at seasonal profits than the greater need to retain business passengers the rest of the year by having a decent schedule.

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 2):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-LGA DEC 14>13

According to DL's timetable, they are cutting this from 12 daily to 8 daily (8 daily starts on 12-17-2011 according to DL's timetables). DL will be increasing it back up in 2012.

I'm not sure if the DL change was loaded already. Mid-month temporary changes don't appear very clearly in this report format.

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
could it be that the situation in DEN has stabilized somewhat

Stabilized meaning that WN is "winning"? I'm not sure that is truly stability.

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
However, I do worry most about F9. They seem to be cutting to a point where maybe now a lot of their connecting possibilities get reduced.

Running 3 ABQs for example will be very bad. That market is due South of DEN. It connects East and West. With only 3 flights it will have a hideous connecting schedule of 1 connection to most everywhere.

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 6):
IAH-YEG is up? Has that happened before on this route?

Is Texas-Alberta traffice increasing due to oil sands/energy demand?
how is IAH-YYC doing on CO/AC or DFW YYC?

Yup

Quoting miaami (Reply 7):
Is this going seasonal or is DL pulling out of GYE?
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 11):
Quoting miaami (Reply 7):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-GYE FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.2>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 1.0>0

Is this going seasonal or is DL pulling out of GYE?

It appears that DL is dropping its weekly service into Guayaquil. Not surprising...

It looks to me like it is gone for the duration.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 13):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-SJU DEC 0.3>0

I could see this route not coming back.
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 14):
but it seems like a long, thin, low-yielding route.

I don't even know if B6 would want that route. It does seem like something out of a 1972 Pan Am timetable, but it must be good to not get axed in the AA SJU bloodletting.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 13):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

YV HNL-ITO DEC 4>3 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4

I not sure I even see them around 1 year from now.

high five on that prediction

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 15):
Not sure why you see the F9 reductions in a different light.

My sources say that there are several A319s where the lessors are not going to allow the Lavs to be removed or repositioned and that up to 5 A319s may leave the fleet in January as a result. I think this schedule change is partial confirmation of that. So, these are not seasonal changes I don't think.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:18 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
My sources say that there are several A319s where the lessors are not going to allow the Lavs to be removed or repositioned and that up to 5 A319s may leave the fleet in January as a result. I think this schedule change is partial confirmation of that. So, these are not seasonal changes I don't think.

Then those lessors are idiots. They'd rather pull an A319 from F9? Add more Airbus to the market? Dumb. Your source doesn't make sense. A lav can be added back just as easily as it can be pulled. F9 would be required to put it back in the original formation prior to returning it to the lessor.

I believe if A319's are leaving it is simply due to not getting the financial terms worked out, i.e. the lessor doesn't want what F9 says they're willing to pay. They don't want to play ball, but there are many others that have to play. No big loss if the A319's leave.
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
My sources say that there are several A319s where the lessors are not going to allow the Lavs to be removed or repositioned and that up to 5 A319s may leave the fleet in January as a result.


I'm not sure how to take this, but if BB is fooling around with the lavs on the leased aircraft, just to get a couple of more seats.... (is there a "roll my eyes around" smiley here?) this is truly bad.

I hope this isn't true, and that maybe your sources somehow misheard this, but it would be really disappointing if so that 5 aircraft leaving because of this, and well..... it seems strange things of this nature keep emerging from RAH, so......
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
YV HNL-ITO DEC 4>3 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
YV HNL-OGG DEC 6>7

What a waste. The employees of the former Aloha must feel sick seeing the "success" of Go!. I have no problem with Go! entering the market, but it's unfortunate that people there actually chose them enough to make them viable at the expense of Aloha.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18):
No big loss if the A319's leave.

Were they to lose 5 aircraft unexpectedly, I'm not sure I'd characterize that as "no big loss", even if it is January. ERJ's leaving, E170's leaving, E190's delayed - at some point you want to see some growth in the fleet to balance that. I know that some Airbii are coming, but if this is a loss of 5 "additional" aircraft, that is a big hit.

To me, anyway.

-Dave
-Dave
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:43 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 19):
I'm not sure how to take this, but if BB is fooling around with the lavs on the leased aircraft, just to get a couple of more seats.... (is there a "roll my eyes around" smiley here?) this is truly bad.

He is considering removing the third lav, but this is really more appropriate for the Frontier thread. It is discussed in this article -

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_19252238

F9 has 3 lavs. WN only has 2. It shouldn't be that big of a deal to lose one of the lavs and to put in some more seats. He wants 3 more seats on the A319 and 6 more seats on the A320.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 20):
Were they to lose 5 aircraft unexpectedly, I'm not sure I'd characterize that as "no big loss", even if it is January. ERJ's leaving, E170's leaving, E190's delayed - at some point you want to see some growth in the fleet to balance that. I know that some Airbii are coming, but if this is a loss of 5 "additional" aircraft, that is a big hit.

I get what you're saying, but I'm simply not alarmed. He wants bigger A320's anyways.
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:46 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
could it be that the situation in DEN has stabilized somewhat

Stabilized meaning that WN is "winning"? I'm not sure that is truly stability.


I'm not quite so sure that anyone here has really won yet.

All the airlines here now probably realize that over-capacity and $9 or $10 fares are not what it takes to make a profit, and this goes for any city. But in DEN, there are advantages... and as each carve out their niche, I think that all can find their way to make their $$$$.

At least from a consumer standpoint, it's great having three major hubbers here, as well as almost all of the other majors and minors... I really wouldn't want that to change...  
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:48 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-HOU JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.6
F9 DEN-MDW JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
F9 DEN-SAT JAN 1.9>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0

These frequencies will be simply uncompetitive. UA will offer 11 daily DEN-IAH and 9 daily DEN-ORD frequencies, while WN will offer 4 daily DEN-HOU and 9 daily DEN-MDW frequencies. Similarly, a single daily flight to SAT will struggle without connecting options through other cities.

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
I do worry most about F9. They seem to be cutting to a point where maybe now a lot of their connecting possibilities get reduced. Although on the other hand, maybe time to focus on the O&D, and start getting more revenue out of the flights that they do have? Let both UA and WN take the less-revenue producing connections. This could be a real big improvement for F9 in itself.

The issue is that below a certain amount of frequency (higher in short-haul, lower in longer-haul), the schedule becomes unattractive for higher-revenue flyers. So they end up having to attract more price-sensitive traffic which cares less about the exact time of the flight. On certain routes, (in my opinion, of course) they're dropping below the minimum frequencies they'll need to stay relevant to anyone other than bargain-seekers.

Quoting flyingcaT (Reply 9):
Another factor is VX is now 5x daily. Although B6 should not worry since the only overlap they have with VX is leisure pax. VX is looking to take more share on the business and agency side from AA, UA and DL.

B6 hates VX. You can bet that B6 wants those corporate travel dollars just as much as VX.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:05 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 19):
I hope this isn't true, and that maybe your sources somehow misheard this, but it would be really disappointing if so that 5 aircraft leaving because of this, and well..... it seems strange things of this nature keep emerging from RAH, so......

I have no problem with their desire to pull the lavs and put in more seats, if that's how they make it work. If they suddenly are losing 5 buses because of it, then that might create a little bit of a problem unless it's already been factored in.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 21):
I get what you're saying, but I'm simply not alarmed. He wants bigger A320's anyways.

Oh sure, I agree. A320's seem to be the new sweetspot for F9 (and others). However, we are two months out from January and to lose 3-5 aircraft at that time - while not as bad as summer - will be a hit without something else already lined up.

Again, it might be much less dramatic that I make it sound. Maybe they'll save money in the dead of winter?

-Dave
-Dave
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:12 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
gain, it might be much less dramatic that I make it sound. Maybe they'll save money in the dead of winter?

I think that's the main goal. Stem the losses during the slower winter months. BB has said they cannot have a repeat of the same quarter last year. It would seem that the a/c dedicated to the Apple flying will come back online in time for March or when the traffic starts to pick back up.
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:14 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
However, we are two months out from January and to lose 3-5 aircraft at that time - while not as bad as summer - will be a hit without something else already lined up.

I'm scratching my head as to why the lessors would object - if they have.

They don't object to Frontier adding LiveTV, which involves a structural change to the aircraft and which has to be removed before the aircraft are returned to the lessors.

  

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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:21 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Stabilized meaning that WN is "winning"? I'm not sure that is truly stability.

What is your definition of winning? Is WN winning DEN? Is UA winning DEN? Do you have to have a loser in order to have a winner? Some times I think you champion for F9 to fail so you can be right and WN can be seen as the winner. WN is not first in market share. Does that mean they aren't winning in DEN? F9 serves more destinations nonstop from DEN than WN. Is F9 winning then? Can UA, WN and F9 find a balance in DEN and not all win? Was Charlie Sheen winning?
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SQ LAX-SIN APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7

surprising? Or is it a) usual or b) driven by increased capacity from the A380 on that route?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:35 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18):
I believe if A319's are leaving it is simply due to not getting the financial terms worked out, i.e. the lessor doesn't want what F9 says they're willing to pay. They don't want to play ball, but there are many others that have to play. No big loss if the A319's leave.

I think it is a bigger deal than you make it out to be. Part of the problem is that when you remove a Lav it can cause a level of work akin to a C-check because you are exposing a lot of "plumbing" areas to inspection that would otherwise not be reachable. Corrosion, for example, is often revealed in such work. If something is found in the process it could be very risky in terms of the airplane's financial viability. Anyway, it's also possible that it is just an excuse to end the lease now. Who really knows...the bottom line is that the planes are leaving the fleet. The why is less important.

Quoting point2point (Reply 19):
I'm not sure how to take this, but if BB is fooling around with the lavs on the leased aircraft, just to get a couple of more seats.... (is there a "roll my eyes around" smiley here?) this is truly bad.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 20):
Were they to lose 5 aircraft unexpectedly, I'm not sure I'd characterize that as "no big loss", even if it is January.

quote=PlanesNTrains,reply=24]Oh sure, I agree. A320's seem to be the new sweetspot for F9 (and others). However, we are two months out from January and to lose 3-5 aircraft at that time - while not as bad as summer - will be a hit without something else already lined up. [/quote]

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 25):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
gain, it might be much less dramatic that I make it sound. Maybe they'll save money in the dead of winter?
I think that's the main goal.
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 25):
It would seem that the a/c dedicated to the Apple flying will come back online in time for March or when the traffic starts to pick back up.

I'm not a big fan of moving lavs for the reasons I stated. It's not the number of lavs I'm concerned about. It is the cost of such a plan. My understanding is that they would remove one lav, chop the rear galley in half, and relocate the other rear lav into the opening. All of that is no big deal on a newly built airplane, but I don't think it is so easy on an old plane. The general rule of thumb with an old plane is don't go messing around with major elements if you don't have to because you don't know what you will find.

I'm not sure this is really unexpected. I think they intended it to some extent. Anyway, I think the fleet plan will be as follows. JAN they will lose up to 5 319s (one of those planes may be an early retirement of an A318). As possible backfill they are looking at A320s and they are probably retaining the remaining E170s. After Easter they will get back 6 planes that are partially dedicated to Apple. I'm not certain they all return, though. I think a couple may remain in ORD and a couple of other markets until August. My usual comment from the F9 thread: "Is this an airline or a used car lot?"

Quoting point2point (Reply 22):
I'm not quite so sure that anyone here has really won yet.

I said "winning" not won. It's pretty clear WN is winning since they are growing and everybody else is shrinking. WN is also making money and F9 is pretty clearly losing.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 23):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-HOU JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.6
F9 DEN-MDW JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
F9 DEN-SAT JAN 1.9>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0

These frequencies will be simply uncompetitive.

Agreed. I think with putting all these seats in their planes they are looking at throwing away their claim to the business traveler and instead going the ULCC route as I have stated more than once.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:41 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 25):
It would seem that the a/c dedicated to the Apple flying will come back online in time for March or when the traffic starts to pick back up.

Happily, there will still be some Apple flying during the summer - that's been known since the day the Apple contract was announced.

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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:59 pm

Quoting flyb (Reply 10):
Alberta is Canada's Texas. This is the first time this route has gone twice daily. Odd second flight, leaves at midnight for IAH. Probably designed to pick up passengers from up north after their shift is finished. Nice to see the routes upgraded this year to a 737-800 as well.

This is designed to connect to CO morning bank to places like RTB, BZE etc. Calgary / Edmonton traffic is huge to this region. Was on a CO flight 2 weeks ago and I counted 26 people heading to Calgary.

Quoting sw733 (Reply 12):

Right at the start of high season in Turks & Caicos. Interesting...

Can we say B6
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:18 pm

Quoting BD338 (Reply 28):
surprising? Or is it a) usual or b) driven by increased capacity from the A380 on that route?

Personally I think SQ's LAXSIN must be terrible--an ultra longhaul, gas guzzling, all business layout to LAX can not possibly be net profitable. Perhaps when you write off the value of the 345 it covers cash occasionally, but whenever the economy weakens or fuel goes up, the 345 routes are the first to get cut, not any of the numerous one-stops.
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:28 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
If they suddenly are losing 5 buses because of it, then that might create a little bit of a problem unless it's already been factored in.

But Frontier is not losing 5 Airbuses because of it.

The only Airbus aircraft leaving the fleet in the first part of the year are the ones that were planned - the 4 x A319 under the revised Gecas deal (known about for months) and 1 x A318.

And, as usually happens when unsubstantiated rumors appear here, my dickie birds have been chirping like crazy. Not one of them has heard that any lessor has objected to the removal of the a lav.

I'm not asking anyone to believe me - I don't have a link - I'm just posting what I have been told from several sources.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-03 12:39:38]
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:30 pm

Quoting flyguy89,reply=14Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-SJU DEC 0.3>0

This route has always perplexed me. IIRC this is a route started by and inherited from TWA, but it seems like a long, thin, low-yielding route. Could somebody perhaps expand on this? Is there a large Puerto Rican population in LA or are there some business ties between the two cities? If airlines are having a tough time making a go of CUN, it just surprises me that LAX-SJU exists at all.
:

It actually does quite well, as the only non-stop between the Caribbean and Los Angeles, or the entire West Coast for that matter. It is being suspended shortly due to a very serious pilot shortage. LAXSJU is a long route and easy to re-route passengers via MIA/DFW. Lots of flying is being cut temporarily through at least the end of December.
a.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:17 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 31):
Quoting flyb (Reply 10):
Alberta is Canada's Texas. This is the first time this route has gone twice daily. Odd second flight, leaves at midnight for IAH. Probably designed to pick up passengers from up north after their shift is finished. Nice to see the routes upgraded this year to a 737-800 as well.


This is designed to connect to CO morning bank to places like RTB, BZE etc. Calgary / Edmonton traffic is huge to this region. Was on a CO flight 2 weeks ago and I counted 26 people heading to Calgary.

Good to know, I did more research here at YEG, looks like it will finally allow connection to Air Canada flights to Northern Alberta and Yellowknife. Great news overall!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:41 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 29):
I said "winning" not won.

okay okay okay......

Quoting mariner (Reply 33):
Not one of them has heard that any lessor has objected to the removal of the a lav.
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 21):
It is discussed in this article -

http://www.denverpost.com/business/c...52238

okay okay okay.....

Still, when marketing, and where image can be very important - talking about lavatories in the newspaper just doesn't quite cut the mustard with me. Is F9 turning into FR? I would think that this is just something that one would do quietly, not go to the major newspaper in your largest city and announce to the world that - HEY EVERYONE, WE'RE REMOVING ONE OF THE LAVS FROM OUR AIRPLANES! (we really need a "shake your head and roll your eyes" smiley here). Oh, and that in the same vein as layoffs...... Come on now, maybe some style lessons are needed here?

Oy vey.....( a "shake your head and roll your eyes" smiley here) and then...  ......................................

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
However, I do worry most about F9. They seem to be cutting to a point where maybe now a lot of their connecting possibilities get reduced.

Running 3 ABQs for example will be very bad. That market is due South of DEN. It connects East and West. With only 3 flights it will have a hideous connecting schedule of 1 connection to most everywhere.
Quoting ScottB (Reply 23):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 DEN-HOU JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.6
F9 DEN-MDW JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
F9 DEN-SAT JAN 1.9>1.1 FEB 1.9>1.0

These frequencies will be simply uncompetitive. UA will offer 11 daily DEN-IAH and 9 daily DEN-ORD frequencies, while WN will offer 4 daily DEN-HOU and 9 daily DEN-MDW frequencies. Similarly, a single daily flight to SAT will struggle without connecting options through other cities.

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
I do worry most about F9. They seem to be cutting to a point where maybe now a lot of their connecting possibilities get reduced. Although on the other hand, maybe time to focus on the O&D, and start getting more revenue out of the flights that they do have? Let both UA and WN take the less-revenue producing connections. This could be a real big improvement for F9 in itself.

The issue is that below a certain amount of frequency (higher in short-haul, lower in longer-haul), the schedule becomes unattractive for higher-revenue flyers. So they end up having to attract more price-sensitive traffic which cares less about the exact time of the flight. On certain routes, (in my opinion, of course) they're dropping below the minimum frequencies they'll need to stay relevant to anyone other than bargain-seekers.

This again is part of what seems to be an overall dilemma with F9 now. Any given action or perceived solution just seems to cause other problems.

All I can think is that probably restructure is painful. Maybe very painful.

My best to all the fantastic F9 employees, hang in there. Something has got to work out for the best. And hopefully, the layoffs will be few and short.

Peace to all.....  
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:48 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 34):
It is being suspended shortly due to a very serious pilot shortage. LAXSJU is a long route and easy to re-route passengers via MIA/DFW. Lots of flying is being cut temporarily through at least the end of December.

Do you really think AA would be cutting it in December if it was so good?
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:57 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 27):
Is WN winning DEN? Is UA winning DEN? Do you have to have a loser in order to have a winner?

I think the answer is that no one is really winning in denver. Certainly no one is really making a ton of money thats for sure. No one is winning but you could make a case they are all loosers in someway. Frontier has lost so much money for so many quarters and since they are almost all in DEN and have a fuel efficient fleet one could make the case they are loosing in Denver. United has lost alot of flyers and marketshare to WN in a rediculously short amount of time so one could also make the case for them. WN has grown alot but have extremely low fares out of DEN so you could make the case they are "loosing"

They all have their reasons to stay however and that is the reason they are all fighting its for the long term and DEN excellent connetion location
-Southwest falt out has commited and wants it and i still believes one of the other two will leave/shrink or go bankrupt long term
-frontier has nowhere to move to and doesn't have the cash to move hubs and what location is better for them
-For united Denver is a good geogrpahical location for a domestic connection hub and access to all the smaller cities in the midwest/rocky mountains with pretty high fares. they can still shrink alot of low fare o&d and have other more important things
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:58 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 37):
Do you really think AA would be cutting it in December if it was so good?

I know it use to be operated daily, then when oil peaked in 2008, they announced they were quitting the route. Then it came back 4 x Weekly (Thu-Sun)
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:53 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
I'm scratching my head as to why the lessors would object - if they have.

True.

Quoting enilria (Reply 29):
the bottom line is that the planes are leaving the fleet. The why is less important.

It's not "less important" if it's going to be spun down the road into something that it's not. For example:

Quoting mariner (Reply 33):
The only Airbus aircraft leaving the fleet in the first part of the year are the ones that were planned - the 4 x A319 under the revised Gecas deal (known about for months) and 1 x A318.

So which is it? The lessors are objecting to lav work? BB wants out of the leases? It's already been a done deal as discussed before?

Well, clearly what Mariner just said makes sense, as we've heard of these leaving the fleet previously. So perhaps it's not really news at all at this point, but rather just the evolution of the schedule as a result of the previous agreement.

-Dave
-Dave
 
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mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:03 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 40):
So which is it? The lessors are objecting to lav work?

The dickie birds are still chirping and no one can work out why the lessors would object since - they say - the lavs are a self contained unit.

I don't know if Frontier uses this particular brand, but this is a link that was sent to me - by someone not at Frontier:

http://www.aircrafttech.com/selfcont.htm

"Self Contained
Requires no costly external plumbing, wiring or remote cycling; and no ground support equipment.

Ease of Installation
The Clean•Flush unitized design results in substantial savings on installation costs. In most cases, the toilet can simply be dropped into a basic supporting framework."


Why this is being discussed in an OAG thread is beyond me. Any stick to beat Frontier, I suppose.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-03 15:08:48]
aeternum nauta
 
MAH4546
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:11 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 37):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 34):
It is being suspended shortly due to a very serious pilot shortage. LAXSJU is a long route and easy to re-route passengers via MIA/DFW. Lots of flying is being cut temporarily through at least the end of December.

Do you really think AA would be cutting it in December if it was so good?

Given how badly they need pilots - yes. Even MIAEZE is seeing cuts in December. I doubt it's an amazing performer, but it holds it weight just fine. The flying being cut is not just based on how bad,y it performs. LAXSJU is easy to reschedule passengers and takes up a 757 for an extremely long time. Over 100 more pilots retired on Tuesday. Things are bad. And AA would not still be flying such a long distance domestic route if it didn't perform well.

[Edited 2011-11-03 15:12:27]
a.
 
LAXintl
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:32 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 42):
Over 100 more pilots retired on Tuesday.

The count was 68, of which only actually 47 were active anyhow.

The exact breakdown was:
Capt:
777 - 8
767 - 14
737 - 2
S80 - 13

F/O:
777 - 2
767 - 2
737 - 2
S80 - 4


More to the point, AA spokesperson Missy Cousino stated this reduced level of retirements for November would not have further impacts on the carriers operations due to pilot staffing needs.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:16 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 33):
The only Airbus aircraft leaving the fleet in the first part of the year are the ones that were planned - the 4 x A319 under the revised Gecas deal (known about for months) and 1 x A318.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 40):
Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
I'm scratching my head as to why the lessors would object - if they have.
True.

I stated above the reasons, but again the bottom line is that 5 planes are leaving the fleet and if Mariner says it is just normal seasonal adjustment it looks like it will be accompanied by a normal seasonal layoff of substantial staff.
Frontier memo: "some involuntary furloughs are likely."
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_19252238

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 40):
So which is it? The lessors are objecting to lav work? BB wants out of the leases? It's already been a done deal as discussed before?

All of the above

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
The dickie birds are still chirping and no one can work out why the lessors would object since - they say - the lavs are a self contained unit.

Mariner and I have some of the same sources, but they don't totally overlap. The plan to remove the lavs has been around longer than you think. The reason it is now becoming public is because they began doing the engineering work and sourcing the parts. So again, the bottom line is that they are getting rid of 5 Airbus, cutting the schedule, and laying off employees.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:24 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
I stated above the reasons, but again the bottom line is that 5 planes are leaving the fleet and if Mariner says it is just normal seasonal adjustment it looks like it will be accompanied by a normal seasonal layoff of substantial staf

I've asked you before - I'll ask you again - please stop putting words in my mouth. I have not mentioned the words "seasonal adjustment" in this thread.

Other may have - not I.

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Mariner and I have some of the same sources, but they don't totally overlap.

I don't now how you can claim to know who my sources are, especially since several of them are not at Frontier itself.

There have been a number of things that I have called which have not come from anyone at Frontier. There have been several times hen I have been the first to pass fairly crucial information to the folk at Frontier.

Some of it is called the Lavender Mafia.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-03 17:31:00]
aeternum nauta
 
n7371f
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:10 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 29):
The general rule of thumb with an old plane is don't go messing around with major elements if you don't have to because you don't know what you will find.

I guess the "general rule of thumb" didn't apply to upwards of 200 DC-9 series planes that Northwest overhauled and installed a forward lavatory.

Or Continental taking out the mid-cabin lavs on the sub-fleet of 737-800's.

You're splitting hairs looking to criticize Frontier.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:12 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 33):
And, as usually happens when unsubstantiated rumors appear here, my dickie birds have been chirping like crazy. Not one of them has heard that any lessor has objected to the removal of the a lav.

Frontier removes the lavs. Upon return to lessor, during the C-check required, Frontier reinstalls the 3rd lavatory that's been in storage. Pretty simple process. Not the lease contract breaking process purported by someone else on here.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:26 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
I don't now how you can claim to know who my sources are, especially since several of them are not at Frontier itself.

I said we did *not* have completely overlapping sources. So, I'm not sure what you are arguing.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 46):
You're splitting hairs looking to criticize Frontier.

Well, we wouldn't want anyone criticizing Frontier. That's certainly not allowed. I said the cuts were driven more by fleet than seasonality and somebody questioned that. Changes in fleet are not seasonal. They are long-term in nature. If you want to argue F9 minutiae there is a whole thread for that on it's 50th incarnation.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 47):
Not the lease contract breaking process purported by someone else on here.

Here is a typical aircraft lease. Section 7F.
http://contracts.onecle.com/restaurant/gecc.lease.1999.11.09.shtml

(f) Except as permitted under this Section 7, Lessee will not modify the
Aircraft or affix or remove any accessory to the Aircraft leased hereunder.

Exception to that term requires agreement from the aircraft owner.
 
bobnwa
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RE: OAG Changes 11/4/2011: AA/DL/F9/G4/UA

Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:38 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 27):
WN is also making money and F9 is pretty clearly losing.

What time period are you talking about when you say WN is making money? they definitly last money in the 3rd quarter which was the most recent quarter

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