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mariner
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New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:35 pm

The previous thread - New Frontier/Republic Part 28 (by SA7700 Oct 20 2011 in Civil Aviation) - is at more than 250 posts, so time for a new one.

I'll start it off by hoping for one of my favorite tails to be recycled:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Sun Valley Aviation



I think it's one of the cutest - but it is also me bug-eyed at some of the things being said in the press since the cc.  

Stirring times, my hearties.

mariner
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floridaflyboy
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 8:52 pm

Quoting mariner (Thread starter):
I'll start it off by hoping for one of my favorite tails to be recycled:

Ah yes, the tree frog   That and the flamingo were my favorite 170 tails back in the day. Would love to see them make a comeback.
Good goes around!
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:08 pm

What ever happened to F9's plans of creating a codeshare with another major US carrier? And can someone update me on the status of the E190 deliveries?
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mikefrommke
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:45 pm

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 4):
What ever happened to F9's plans of creating a codeshare with another major US carrier?

I don't think they ever limited it to a US based carrier. I'm sure they'd still love to find a partner (I'm hoping they can work something out with IcelandAir), but I think the restructuring has taken priority.

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 4):
And can someone update me on the status of the E190 deliveries?

They will be taking 2 in the next few weeks, the rest have been deferred.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:50 pm

Okay, here's a surprise - to me. I don't pay a lot of attention to market share, which I don't see as any indication of profitability, but anomalies intrigue me.

A few months ago, there was a great deal of hootin' and hollerin' when Airtran took the #1 spot at MKE and it was still #1 in June 2011:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee...n-slips-but-remains-on-top-at.html

"AirTran Airways continued to hold the top market share in June at Milwaukee’s General Mitchell International Airport, according to new figures from the airport.

AirTran’s market share stood at 31.8 percent for the month, down from 33.04 percent in May. Frontier Airlines, which has hubs in Milwaukee and Denver, ranked second with a 29.7 percent market share in June, down from 30.6 percent the prior month."


But, the same source says, it changed over the summer so that in September 2011 Frontier was #1 again (although I don't remember any hootin' and hollerin') and by some margin:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee...ier-airlines-focusing-more-on.html

"Frontier still held the top market share at Mitchell — at 31.1 percent — in September, the most recent month for which stats are available. AirTran Airways, which is being merged into Southwest Airlines, held the No. 2 spot at 27.3 percent."

Obviously with the Frontier cuts this will change again and the merger will make Airtran/Southwest the clear #1 but I'm puzzled - it isn't so much that Frontier grew, it seems to be that Airtran dropped, but I don't recall too many Airtran cuts for the summer.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:52 pm

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 4):
can someone update me on the status of the E190 deliveries?

Two new E190s are being delivered this month. The remaining E190 deliveries are being deferred indefinitely. 2 leased E190s are scheduled to be returned to the lessors in fall 2012. I personally do not believe we'll see any further deliveries.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:00 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
Obviously with the Frontier cuts this will change again and the merger will make Airtran/Southwest the clear #1 but I'm puzzled - it isn't so much that Frontier grew, it seems to be that Airtran dropped, but I don't recall too many Airtran cuts for the summer.

Is this a result of the Skywest CRJs that were pulled from the MKE operation?
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:05 pm

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 8):
Is this a result of the Skywest CRJs that were pulled from the MKE operation?

Or is that lost share now counted by Southwest - didn't it take over a couple of Airtran routes?

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point2point
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:06 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
Obviously with the Frontier cuts this will change again and the merger will make Airtran/Southwest the clear #1 but I'm puzzled - it isn't so much that Frontier grew, it seems to be that Airtran dropped, but I don't recall too many Airtran cuts for the summer.

I like rankings, but also realize that they don't often have the significance that are attached to them. But with the F9 cuts here in MKE, will they be #2 after FL/WN, or will maybe DL or someone else (or two) move ahead of them as well?
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:16 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 7):
Two new E190s are being delivered this month. The remaining E190 deliveries are being deferred indefinitely. 2 leased E190s are scheduled to be returned to the lessors in fall 2012. I personally do not believe we'll see any further deliveries.

Although I hope the rumors of the second (used) A320 are true. Given the Airtran announcement, a bit of spare metal might be useful:

FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012 (by Xcltflyboy Nov 11 2011 in Civil Aviation)

TYS won't be happy - it just lost Vision and now Airtran.

Maybe it could work for Frontier as DEN-TYS-MCO, at least in season? It might be a way for Frontier to boost the TYS winter numbers.

TYS is still hanging out for Southwest, of course, and thought Airtran was the key to it.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-11 14:19:19]
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:03 am

I mentioned in 3 or so threads ago I thought TYS would make a good north-south focus city/hub of sorts based on its geographical location, mirroring the WN ops at BNA. Now that FL is leaving enforces my thought even more. FL departure tells me WN won't be back in the foreseeable future.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:01 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 11):
Although I hope the rumors of the second (used) A320 are true. Given the Airtran announcement, a bit of spare metal might be useful:

It is two ex-U5 A320s and they will be operated initially in the U5 configuration and placed exclusively on Apple charters. They won't even be painted except all white. The plan is to mod them to the F9 configuration in summer 2012.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:37 am

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 7):
I personally do not believe we'll see any further deliveries.

What if Bedford sells off F9 and ownership changes hands? I saw in the conference call that they're thinking about unloading even more E190s, and it'd be pretty disappointing to see the fleet shrink further because these frames compliment the Airbus pretty nicely in my opinion. If the E190s get dumped I think we'll see a lot of the "unique" routes go away as well.

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
Or is that lost share now counted by Southwest - didn't it take over a couple of Airtran routes?

They took over a couple of frequencies, but with the exception of STL I don't think any routes have transferred completely over to WN.
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kingcavalier
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:51 am

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 14):
What if Bedford sells off F9 and ownership changes hands? I saw in the conference call that they're thinking about unloading even more E190s, and it'd be pretty disappointing to see the fleet shrink further because these frames compliment the Airbus pretty nicely in my opinion. If the E190s get dumped I think we'll see a lot of the "unique" routes go away as well.

I'm a big fan of the E190. I don't think we'd see places like SBA without it. The E190 does great on uncontested or high fare monopoly routes, e.g. DEN - PSP, but it doesn't do well on depressed yield routes with lots of competition like DEN - ABQ. I don't think the E190 fleet will shrink further, though. Although not as efficient as the A320, I believe the E190 had a break even load factor of 90% in Q3. That number was as good or better than the A318 and A319. Of course, BB could sell the remaining owned E190s to increase liquidity. I believe he has gone on record as stating he could raise as much as $40 million if he did sell the planes. But, he keeps talking about a fleet of 99+ seats, so I don't think the E190s are going anywhere. I believe BB addressed the question of moving the E190 fleet to the F9 certificate when the two companies separate, and he said no. He believes there is power in a single fleet type. Republic crews would continue to operate the E190s for the new Frontier on a pro rate shared revenue contract.

My biggest beef about the E190 is that 100th seat that has been deactivated.
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Airportguy1971
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:32 am

Haven't been posting very much, but wanted to check in to say thanks to our Vets...

Thanks to all the Vets at F9!
 
intheair10
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:23 am

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 15):
My biggest beef about the E190 is that 100th seat that has been deactivated.

Oh, you mean this seat. And folks wonder why RAH pilots think mgmt is– oh, pick your favorite negative adjective. Let me get this straight: BB is willing to sacrifice a lav on the bus to create extra revenue yet he 'deactivates' a seat, 26A, to skirt the CBA. And a mediator had the gall to side with the company in determining it wasn't really a seat. This is old news but it's a raw wound nonetheless.


Seat by , on Flickr

[Edited 2011-11-11 20:26:26]
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:46 pm

Quoting tztristar500 (Reply 13):
It is two ex-U5 A320s and they will be operated initially in the U5 configuration and placed exclusively on Apple charters. They won't even be painted except all white. The plan is to mod them to the F9 configuration in summer 2012.

Thanks for that.

As we discussed earlier, when this idea was first mooted apparently the lessors wanted too much money. I doubt it is BB who has blinked.

That accounts for two of the last five USA3000 A320's. I wonder what will happen to the other three.

mariner
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting Airportguy1971 (Reply 16):

I can only assume F9 has never employed any Coast Guard veterans in that the fifth Armed Service is absent from the URL.

Ironically one of Mariners colleagues/mentors who he spoke of many years ago spent a short stint in the Coast Guard as a Photo Journalist. that would of course be the late great Alex Haley whom we know as the author of Roots.

Alex Haley has a Coast Guard medium endurance cutter named in his honor which is home ported in Kodiak, Alaska ADQ http://www.uscg.mil/pacarea/cgcAlexHaley/
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 8:26 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 19):
Alex Haley has a Coast Guard medium endurance cutter named in his honor which is home ported in Kodiak, Alaska ADQ http://www.uscg.mil/pacarea/cgcAlexHaley/

I did not know that, Gent. Thank you. It means a very great deal to me - some of the great years of my life.

mariner
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:05 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
I did not know that, Gent. Thank you. It means a very great deal to me - some of the great years of my life.

From the same URL here is some of Mr. Haley's military service bio URL http://www.uscg.mil/pacarea/cgcAlexHaley/history.asp

Several years ago I had the opportunity to step aboard Mr. Haley's namesake when it sailed in Juneau
What an honor. If memory serves me Mr. Haley also has ties to a little town in northeast Tennessee near TRI a few miles SSW of the Virgina state line, a town named Henning, TN.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 10:02 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 21):
If memory serves me Mr. Haley also has ties to a little town in northeast Tennessee near TRI a few miles SSW of the Virgina state line, a town named Henning, TN.

And at the end he lived in eastern TN, his farm outside Knoxville - TYS.

Bringing this back to Frontier, I know none of this will happen, but things have been so tortuous around here it's time for a little fun.

If I had my druthers - and if Frontier had some spare metal - it would now announce some more MCO stuff, even if 1 or 2 x weekly, even if only seasonal, to start in February, to the cities Airtran is dropping in June:

MCO-BMI - MCO-CRW - perhaps even MCO-IAD - and, of course, DEN-TYS-MCO.

I assume at least a couple of them are on the phone to Frontier - and to Allegiant as well.  

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sat Nov 12, 2011 10:15 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 22):
If I had my druthers - and if Frontier had some spare metal - it would now announce some more MCO stuff, even if 1 or 2 x weekly, even if only seasonal, to start in February, to the cities Airtran is dropping in June

And if some of the things BB said during the Q3 employee meeting are hints of the future, one never knows what could come about for future flying.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:29 pm

The new Southwest/Airtran schedule is out - with, as always - some new DEN service,and a couple of puzzles. Southwest.com announces two new DEN routes:

http://www.southwest.com/html/cs/inv...stor_relations/if_news_events.html

It lists DEN-DAY and DEN-CAK - which, I guess, answers the question of whether Southwest will leave CAK or not.

There's also a new Southwest/Airtran HOU-MCI - 1 x daily seasonal. But Marketwatch has more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sou...summer-flight-schedules-2011-11-13

2 x daily DEN-LGA. If so, this was inevitable, but doesn't answer the question of where the slots are coming from - PHF?

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-13 10:43:37]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:30 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
2 x daily DEN-LGA. If so, this was inevitable, but doesn't answer the question of where the slots are coming from - PHF?

That's what I imagine

Starting DAY, and CAK made sense for WN n my opinion. I think they will connect SDF and LIT to DEN soon as well
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:12 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 25):
Starting DAY, and CAK made sense for WN n my opinion.

I agree, both are good cities for Airtran.

I was mildly surprised they didn't add DAY-MDW, so maybe they're a bit cross that Frontier started MCI-LAS and MCI-MCO.

I am also (as mildly) surprised that Southwest has never started DEN-CLE.

My only puzzle involves an old hobby horse of mine - I'm told Southwest dropped ISP-MDW. While I'm still not advocating that Frontier start ISP, it is harder and harder for me to believe that the quite large catchment area there only wants to fly to BWI and Florida.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-13 15:32:28]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:41 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 19):
I can only assume F9 has never employed any Coast Guard veterans in that the fifth Armed Service is absent from the URL.

As a former 'Puddle Pirate' the USCG has never been part of the military per se. It only becomes part of the Navy in wartime. It was part of Treasury, Transportation and now Homeland Security. Granted we get all the same pay and benefits and are quasi-military. The three primary missions of the Coast Guard are Search & Rescue, Law Enforcement and Port Security.

Semper Paratus! (Always Ready)

[Edited 2011-11-14 08:59:59]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:49 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
2 x daily DEN-LGA. If so, this was inevitable, but doesn't answer the question of where the slots are coming from - PHF?
Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
My only puzzle involves an old hobby horse of mine - I'm told Southwest dropped ISP-MDW. While I'm still not advocating that Frontier start ISP, it is harder and harder for me to believe that the quite large catchment area there only wants to fly to BWI and Florida.

WN is focused on business passengers these days and ISP tends to be a leisure only airport. Case in point, my source says FL will end LGA-MCO to add LGA-DEN.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 5:11 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 28):
Case in point, my source says FL will end LGA-MCO to add LGA-DEN.

Yes, I believe you're right.

mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:41 pm

Here's predictable - more Mexico routes:

Frontier Applies For Additional Mexico Routes (by LAXintl Nov 14 2011 in Civil Aviation)

PHL-CUN, RFD-CUN AND CLE-CUN - all Apple Vacations routes as well.

I think CLE-CUN is the most interesting, because it now gives Frontier scheduled service at that airport.

So - if I had my druthers - given Southwest's DEN-CAK, I think Frontier should shift to CLE.

Retreating in the face of Southwest? Absolutely. Why waste energy and money trying to fight it on a relatively slender route?

 

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:08 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 30):
Retreating in the face of Southwest? Absolutely. Why waste energy and money trying to fight it on a relatively slender route?

Unlike DAY that F9 has been competing on with UA for a few years (I'm not sure that route can sustain 3 carriers), F9 should have been able to get a loyal following in CAK.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:11 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 31):
Unlike DAY that F9 has been competing on with UA for a few years (I'm not sure that route can sustain 3 carriers), F9 should have been able to get a loyal following in CAK.

I'm sure there is a loyal following in CAK and it may do okay - with reduced yields - but why fight it when CLE is just down the road?

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:12 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 30):
Why waste energy and money trying to fight it on a relatively slender route?

I think it makes sense all things considered, but you switch to go up against UA on a hub to hub route. Not sure if that would improve the competitive landscape at all. Do we know what the plan is to get that A320 to CLE? Is it routed via CUN or will there be a ferry flight?
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:19 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
I'm sure there is a loyal following in CAK and it may do okay - with reduced yields - but why fight it when CLE is just down the road?

With WN on the route, F9 has to compete with just one other flight. UA does DEN-CLE multiple times (I know CLE is bigger than CAK), but it's not like WN doesn't even serve CLE so the likelihood of them starting DEN-CLE is nonexistent. There is no telling as to if WN would just add CLE-DEN later this year. If F9 still served MKE-CLE, then I'd say it may make sense to switch over. I'm sure they will still do fine in CAK and DAY.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:26 pm

Denver International Airport released the September 2011 figures today.

Interestingly, they state F9 as having the largest market share here. I know that there's a lot of ways of measurement, but I thought that I would post the below here. And yes, I know that UA includes UAX, but still......

Courtesy: Denver International Airport


Anyway, good job F9.....
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:57 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 33):
I think it makes sense all things considered, but you switch to go up against UA on a hub to hub route.

I'd look forward to it. It would be like the good ol' days.  

Southwest's DEN-CAK is clearly designed to hurt Frontier. Okay - avert the hurt.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-14 16:27:19]
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mikefrommke
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:55 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 35):
Interestingly, they state F9 as having the largest market share here. I know that there's a lot of ways of measurement, but I thought that I would post the below here.

Very interesting.... Good job F9!
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:08 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 35):
And yes, I know that UA includes UAX, but still......

And Continental...
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:30 am

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 38):
And Continental...

Yes, I know that too. Just in my mind, United and Continental are really one and the same now. At this point, I guess that it's just a matter of semantics for me until the full integration. I can imagine that there's probably many out there that can list all of the reasons as to maybe why they're not one in the same now, but to me, well... they're one in the same. As are Southwest and AirTran.

I know that my mind can't be read about this, but that's the way it works........  
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:46 pm

The analyst must like something today (Wednesday). RAH stock is up $.30 at the noon hour. Even as WTI passed the $100.00 bbl threshold today
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:27 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 38):
Even as WTI passed the $100.00 bbl threshold today

This just sickens me. This is no longer about supply and demand. It is now about how to rape consumers, while the investors get filthy rich. There is no fundamentals anymore, this is just outright bull sheet.

When the oil prices started to grow a few years ago, it was because of the demand. When the price of oil went down, it was because of the economy. Then it went up when Greece was in financial distress. Then it went down when everyone went to gold. Then it went up when the US economy started to show growth. Then it dropped, because of record unemployment numbers. Then it went up again because of speculators. Then it went up again because of demand. Then it went down because of Italy being in financial distress. Then it went up because Charlie Sheen was fired. Then it went down because of Occupy Wallstreet. Now it is back up because of the fundamentals.

This is getting old. Speculators should be banned from anything regarding energy. The excuses are old. This is absolute rape, and I suspect that this world is getting tired of it by now. In fact, oil should be set at a price of $30 to $40 per barrel.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:29 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 38):
The analyst must like something today (Wednesday). RAH stock is up $.30 at the noon hour. Even as WTI passed the $100.00 bbl threshold today

Up over 10% now. When I first saw the price on my home page I thought there must have been some news - but I couldn't find anything.

There is this - which is nice, surely doesn't explain the rise in the pps:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republ...nt-Fuel-bw-3059319378.html?x=0&l=1

"Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET - News) has signed an OnPointSM Fuel & Carbon Solutions agreement with GE Aviation. Under this agreement, GE’s Fuel & Carbon Solutions team will use proprietary decision software and fuel consulting expertise and work with Republic Airways to identify and track operational improvements that could reduce the airline’s fuel spend by an average of three percent."

Given the almost relentless rise in the fuel price, 3% saving doesn't change the world, but can't be sneezed at.

This doesn't explain it either, although because it is engines for the Neo, it might be interesting to the Tech Wallahs:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republ...inalizes-bw-726925518.html?x=0&l=1

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-16 11:38:11]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:12 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 32):
With WN on the route, F9 has to compete with just one other flight. UA does DEN-CLE multiple times (I know CLE is bigger than CAK), but it's not like WN doesn't even serve CLE so the likelihood of them starting DEN-CLE is nonexistent. There is no telling as to if WN would just add CLE-DEN later this year. If F9 still served MKE-CLE, then I'd say it may make sense to switch over. I'm sure they will still do fine in CAK and DAY.

I personally think CAK/DAY for F9 will do just fine. If you look at the schedules, F9's are definitely superior. WN/FL's appear to be just routing traffic to the west coast then trying to capture O/D traffic. F9 at one point had 3x CAK-DEN so I think they will be able to absorb that flight. DAY might also be able to absorb it with CVG-DEN capacity down too. If anyone wants to call it an attack on F9, they can say it's more about the connections then the DEN O/D traffic, IMO.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:04 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 38):
The analyst must like something today (Wednesday). RAH stock is up $.30 at the noon hour.

I find it hilarious that Bedford views the the rising stocks as "a ringing endorsement of the business plan." Most of those are from corporate holders and hedge funds that will sell off their shares before you can even say "business plan." Get real, Bryan. A lot of people thought that YX's shareholders would be loyal during FL's hostile takeover attempt, but once they upped the offer the majority of the shares were tendered anyways. They're just in it to make a quick buck.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
quartz
Posts: 33
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:07 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 40):
Up over 10% now. When I first saw the price on my home page I thought there must have been some news - but I couldn't find anything.


This is as good an explanation as you are likely to find:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rjet/short-interest

8mm out of 48mm shares sold short, and these need to be bought back at some point. Many of these shorts were betting on the demise of RJET (and were probably emboldened by bankruptcy chatter like that found here on a.net). Q3 earnings have proven them likely wrong, they are climbing over each other to cover. With average daily volume of 500k, the shorts would need to buy every offered share for three weeks to flatten out their positions.

[Edited 2011-11-16 13:09:59]

[Edited 2011-11-16 13:10:21]
 
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mariner
Topic Author
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:15 pm

Quoting Quartz (Reply 43):
8mm out of 48mm shares sold short, and these need to be bought back at some point.

That's true. I had completely ignored the role of shorts in this. Thanks for reminding me.  

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
righteouswind
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 2:46 am

RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:17 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 38):
Even as WTI passed the $100.00 bbl threshold today

Brent oil prices are not rising. What is happening is that the Brent-WTI spread is collapsing after hitting over $20 per barrel. WTI and Brent used to trade near parity but over the past year WTI lagged badly (until now). Fortunately for airlines, jet fuel is now priced based upon Brent oil.

"Inventories in the U.S. Midwest have swelled this year due to rising supplies from Canada and North Dakota, helping to drive the premium of Brent crude to U.S. oil futures to record highs over $28 a barrel in October.

The premium of international benchmark Brent crude to U.S. oil futures dropped nearly $3 to below $10 a barrel following the news, the lowest level since March 2011."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45312307
 
GentFromAlaska
Posts: 2666
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:24 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 39):
This is no longer about supply and demand. It is now about how to rape consumers,

The timing around the busiest travel time of the year just a travelers prepare to get on the highways (or in the air) for Thanksgiving and Christmas would suggest this.

I'm personally so tired of the term "world market" When somebody farts in India or China the winds aloft carries it to the U.S.

   because oil effects so many world economies it seems to me world leaders would get together and remove oil as a trading commodity. Now that would be a symposium.   

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Group was reporting today, gasoline may not follow oils recent uptick. We can only hope   
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
mikefrommke
Posts: 221
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:32 am

RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:40 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 46):
The timing around the busiest travel time of the year just a travelers prepare to get on the highways (or in the air) for Thanksgiving and Christmas would suggest this.

This is an absolute argument for the fact that the price follows demand! More people driving = more demand for gas = higher prices. Its the same reason prices go up in the summer. They can charge higher prices because people are willing to pay it.

When gas went up to $5 / gallon a few years ago, people started becoming interested in fuel efficient vehicles, and cut back on driving. Coupled with the down economy people had less money to spend on gas further dropping demand which caused fuel to come back down.

The problem we will have in the future is the massive demand growth that will come from China and India which will cause prices to remain high unless we discover a massive oil field and the ruling government lets people pull it out. Or we start switching to natural gas as those prices have plummeted because the supply has shot up.

Speculators do drive volatility day to day but general trends still rely heavily on supply and demand.

Back on topic though, interested if any other airlines are using the GE Fuel savings plan that RJET is investing in?
 
F9Animal
Posts: 3637
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:19 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 46):
I'm personally so tired of the term "world market" When somebody farts in India or China the winds aloft carries it to the U.S.

because oil effects so many world economies it seems to me world leaders would get together and remove oil as a trading commodity. Now that would be a symposium.

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Group was reporting today, gasoline may not follow oils recent uptick. We can only hope

I have to be totally honest. I was taking a sip of water when reading your response. I laughed so hard, I choked and water came out of my nose! Thank you for the laugh!  
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
n7371f
Posts: 931
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

RE: New Frontier/Republic #29

Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:28 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 16):
Quoting tztristar500 (Reply 13):
It is two ex-U5 A320s and they will be operated initially in the U5 configuration and placed exclusively on Apple charters. They won't even be painted except all white. The plan is to mod them to the F9 configuration in summer 2012.

Thanks for that.

As we discussed earlier, when this idea was first mooted apparently the lessors wanted too much money. I doubt it is BB who has blinked.

That accounts for two of the last five USA3000 A320's. I wonder what will happen to the other three.

mariner

At least 2 of USA 3000's remaining 320's are leased from AFS Investments (which is an arm of GECAS). I also believe the other 3 leased aircraft are through GECAS but managed by WFBNW.

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