xcltflyboy
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FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:46 pm

 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:49 pm

"AirTran Airways says it can no longer support service to these particular markets in light of the realities of the challenging economic environment and sustained high fuel prices."

Translation: These particular markets do not fit into WN operational model.
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airtran737
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:49 pm

Glad to see GRR and FNT not on this list. Commuting options are always a good thing.
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xcltflyboy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:51 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 1):

"AirTran Airways says it can no longer support service to these particular markets in light of the realities of the challenging economic environment and sustained high fuel prices."

Translation: These particular markets do not fit into WN operational model.

  
 
point2point
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:53 pm

TYS, MIA, BMI, CRW, and IAD, although IAD will keep its WN operation as is.

Hmmm.... sure gonna ruin the speculation in a lot of other threads...  

But anyway, really sad to those employees affected, and all the best for them.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:57 pm

Quoting point2point,reply=4

:
Hmmm.... sure gonna ruin the speculation in a lot of other threads...

Got that right! I guess MIA and WN couldn't come to a fee agreement suitable for WN ops. IAD is a bit of a surprise, but WN already (barely) serves the station so...

The loss of FL at BMI is really going to change the dynamics of the Central Illinois market. PIA may be the biggest winner in this case.
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toltommy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:05 pm

BMI surprises me. DL lost a big corporate contract in the market to FL recently. I really thought that would make WN viable there, but I suspect WN doesn't think they could grow it to the size they want their stations to be.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:16 pm

TYS and CRW are less-than-daily leftovers from the days when AirTran wanted to do battle with Allegiant, so I'm not surprised at those two leaving the FL system. IAD already has Southwest, so no loss there. As for MIA, I think that the extremely high cost per enplanement at MIA drove WN+FL away.

However, I am surprised to see BMI leave the FL system. Didn't FL sign a 5-year corporate travel deal with State Farm Insurance (based in the area) recently? I wonder if WN will honor it via MDW. One can assume that Delta will switch their ATL flights to CR2s and reduce the frequency now that FL is gone. And I don't think BMI would work for Allegiant, as G4 serves nearby PIA. Also of note: BMI still offers free parking, so I wonder if BMI will start charging for parking to make up for the revenue shortfall from losing FL.
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FlyPNS1
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:20 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 7):
One can assume that Delta will switch their ATL flights to CR2s and reduce the frequency now that FL is gone. And I don't think BMI would work for Allegiant, as G4 serves nearby PIA.

Bad news for BMI will be good news for SPI/PIA/CMI which will gain back some of the traffic currently being lost to BMI.
 
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Acey559
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:30 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 7):
One can assume that Delta will switch their ATL flights to CR2s and reduce the frequency now that FL is gone.

Of course I don't have a crystal ball so I can't say for sure, but I wouldn't count DL out of the route. When everyone predicted that DL would do the same at MLI when FL pulled out, I had everyone jumping down my throat telling me I would be eating humble pie because I predicted they would maintain present levels. A year later now and we still have four CR7 flights a day to ATL, and sometimes they even use CR9s on the routes. I'm not saying this will last forever, but I'm just happy things are still going well for DL here at MLI, and I certainly hope present levels prevail down the road at BMI.
 
point2point
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:46 pm

This article also mentions that these changes will be "incorporated into AirTran’s flight schedule extension to be published on Nov. 13, 2011."

Isn't that the day also that floating around the threads here that WN is also supposed to release a schedule as well?
 
steex
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:57 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 10):
This article also mentions that these changes will be "incorporated into AirTran’s flight schedule extension to be published on Nov. 13, 2011."

Isn't that the day also that floating around the threads here that WN is also supposed to release a schedule as well?

I obviously don't expect it, but it would be pretty funny if a mere two days from now we see announcements about WN introducing IAD-ATL service and opening a station at BMI on June 3, 2012.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 11:10 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 10):
Isn't that the day also that floating around the threads here that WN is also supposed to release a schedule as well?

Yes.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 8):
Bad news for BMI will be good news for SPI/PIA/CMI which will gain back some of the traffic currently being lost to BMI.

As for who will benefit the most from FL leaving BMI, remember this old saying: "Will it play in Peoria"?

In reality, the whole Central Illinois market is sized for only one strong airport, but it has four weak airports. Now that FL is leaving MLI, the catalyst is in place for much-needed regionalization in the area.
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
steex
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 11:25 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 12):

In reality, the whole Central Illinois market is sized for only one strong airport, but it has four weak airports. Now that FL is leaving MLI, the catalyst is in place for much-needed regionalization in the area.

Realistically, BMI is the best located to be that airport. It's essentially an hour or less to all of Springfield, Peoria, Decatur, and Champaign/Urbana in different directions. It will be interesting to see what plays out.
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Fri Nov 11, 2011 11:36 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
Quoting point2point,reply=4

:
Hmmm.... sure gonna ruin the speculation in a lot of other threads...


Got that right! I guess MIA and WN couldn't come to a fee agreement suitable for WN ops

I don't think that at all. I still think that WN will announce its own service there at a later date. To call 1 flt a day to 1 city with 1 employee a "big closure" is ridiculous. Naturally, I don't wish anyone lose their jobs, but number-wise, it IS as small an operation as it can possibly be. I'm still thinking WN will do MIA with eventually up to 35flts a day.

Quoting point2point (Reply 10):
This article also mentions that these changes will be "incorporated into AirTran’s flight schedule extension to be published on Nov. 13, 2011."

Isn't that the day also that floating around the threads here that WN is also supposed to release a schedule as well?

Yes, and the schedule coming out NOV 13 is fact, not a rumor. Everytime a new schedule is presented, they also include when the next one will be released. No secret.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
FlyPeoria
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:13 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 8):
Bad news for BMI will be good news for SPI/PIA/CMI which will gain back some of the traffic currently being lost to BMI.

Perhaps we'll see G4 announced PIA-SFB and DL announced PIA-ATL soon?

BMI's airport director, Carl Olsen, met with WN officials in Dallas a month or so ago, but if WN were going to announce say, BMI-BWI/DEN/BNA, wouldn't they have done it at the same time as the FL announcement?
 
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:55 am

Quoting FlyPeoria (Reply 15):
BMI's airport director, Carl Olsen, met with WN officials in Dallas a month or so ago, but if WN were going to announce say, BMI-BWI/DEN/BNA, wouldn't they have done it at the same time as the FL announcement?

Given that we know that WN isn't leaving IAD and yet they've discussed a "closure" there, I wouldn't count WN out of any of these cities for another week or so (that's not to say that I'm especially optimistic about BMI).
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BMI727
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:02 am

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):
BMI surprises me.

Not to me. It was a long time coming, but it will be annoying when Delta drops their frequencies though. My family and I generally drive to St. Louis anyway, and I suspect that's exactly what a lot more people in the area will end up doing (or Chicago).

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):
I really thought that would make WN viable there, but I suspect WN doesn't think they could grow it to the size they want their stations to be.

No, and a lot of those pax will probably leak to MDW, IND and STL anyway since fares won't be dropping.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
The loss of FL at BMI is really going to change the dynamics of the Central Illinois market. PIA may be the biggest winner in this case.

Fares are going to spike, perhaps save Allegiant. AirTran and the proximity to larger cities saved them from the typical small town fares somewhat, but I think that's over.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 7):
Also of note: BMI still offers free parking, so I wonder if BMI will start charging for parking to make up for the revenue shortfall from losing FL.

I highly doubt that. Doing so might sign their own death warrant as people will flock to PIA and SPI and those from the eastern parts of the state would go ahead and use CMI.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 12):
In reality, the whole Central Illinois market is sized for only one strong airport, but it has four weak airports.

That's about the size of it. Having CAT and State Farm (plus ADM and Deere to some extent) split is probably the enabler that has kept no airport from gaining an upper hand.

Quoting FlyPeoria (Reply 15):
Perhaps we'll see G4 announced PIA-SFB and DL announced PIA-ATL soon?

Atlanta will probably take some time to come back, but Allegiant restarting Orlando would be a no-brainer to me.
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mariner
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:06 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 16):
Given that we know that WN isn't leaving IAD and yet they've discussed a "closure" there, I wouldn't count WN out of any of these cities for another week or so (that's not to say that I'm especially optimistic about BMI).

Help me out here, Cubs. Or anyone.

Given that Southwest is coming into a bunch of DCA slots - ex-Airtran - what is the value of IAD? According to the Southwest route map, it's only two routes - DEN and MDW - and since it started with more, I assume those others have been dropped.

I understood IAD before - I thought it was a pretty good move - but with DCA coming up I'm not sure I see the point of it.

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Cubsrule
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:12 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):
Given that Southwest is coming into a bunch of DCA slots - ex-Airtran - what is the value of IAD? According to the Southwest route map, it's only two routes - DEN and MDW - and since it started with more, I assume those others have been dropped.

They have, and I don't think IAD is a great performer for them.

But let me take (or at least suggest) a contrary view to yours on IAD. Adding DCA service will permit them WN to grow in D.C. It will not, however, permit WN to serve three of its largest stations: DEN, PHX and LAS. I wonder if a presence at DCA makes IAD-PHX/LAS/DEN more viable because it generally makes WN bigger in D.C. In such a scenario, IAD-MDW might stick around on the sheer strength of the MDW hub.
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mariner
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:19 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
But let me take (or at least suggest) a contrary view to yours on IAD.

I don't have a contrary view - as I said I thought it was a good idea. I'm a bit surprised it's cut so much.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
It will not, however, permit WN to serve three of its largest stations: DEN, PHX and LAS.

I'd understand that - but it doesn't serve PHX and LAS from IAD now. I don't follow Southwest, so I don't know what it actually did, but it certainly announced IAD-LAS

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...r-newest-destination-56026422.html

"Southwest Airlines will begin its Dulles service with a total of 12 daily nonstop departures to the following cities: Chicago Midway (seven daily), Las Vegas (one daily), Orlando (two daily), and Tampa Bay (two daily)."

I'm just confused.

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Cubsrule
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:26 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
I'd understand that - but it doesn't serve PHX and LAS from IAD now. I don't follow Southwest, so I don't know what it actually did, but it certainly announced IAD-LAS

IAD-LAS was a loser when they ran it, and it would be a loser today. But I wonder if it would work with a 25 flight operation at DCA that would make the whole D.C. operation bigger. AA has run IAD-LAX successfully and, I think, without ever cutting it since they lost TW's DCA-LAX slots, so the idea of a "split operation" is not without precedent.
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mariner
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:34 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 21):
IAD-LAS was a loser when they ran it, and it would be a loser today. But I wonder if it would work with a 25 flight operation at DCA that would make the whole D.C. operation bigger. AA has run IAD-LAX successfully and, I think, without ever cutting it since they lost TW's DCA-LAX slots, so the idea of a "split operation" is not without precedent.

Maybe, I dunno, you may be well be right. Is it really worth it? I mean - presumably - some IAD-MDW frequency will transfer to DCA?

I don't have a horse in this race, but it seems a heck of an expensive way of doing it to me, and simply unusual for the otherwise always efficient (and pragmatic) Southwest.

mariner
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Cubsrule
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:38 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 22):
I don't have a horse in this race, but it seems a heck of an expensive way of doing it to me, and simply unusual for the otherwise always efficient (and pragmatic) Southwest.

The bottom line is this: for the foreseeable future, if they want a west coast-D.C. presence, they have no choice. A west coast-D.C. presence has value. I don't know if it has sufficient value to overcome the inherent inefficiency.

Quoting mariner (Reply 22):
I mean - presumably - some IAD-MDW frequency will transfer to DCA?

I don't think the two overlap as much as you think. I bet most of the "DCA-MDW" traffic on WN today is using BWI because it's so much easier to get in to the District.
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:45 am

So FL was already ending MLI and now BMI is being added to the list. Anyone think that a consolidated WN might at some point start service to RFD? Apparently they had looked at starting service there in the past, but after WN started MKE that pretty much fizzled out.
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mariner
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:50 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 23):
The bottom line is this: for the foreseeable future, if they want a west coast-D.C. presence, they have no choice.

Yes, I understand that.

mariner
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toltommy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:52 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 7):
Didn't FL sign a 5-year corporate travel deal with State Farm Insurance (based in the area) recently? I wonder if WN will honor it via MDW.

I'm sure they'll try, but that's quite a hike up 55. I would imagine the senior sales reps from DL and AA will be on the first flights to BMI Monday morning. There's obviously a market in Central Illinois. The trick for the legacy carriers is how do they capitalize on this? Simply dropping capacity to 50 seaters isn't the answer, I hope.
 
toltommy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:56 am

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 24):
Anyone think that a consolidated WN might at some point start service to RFD?

Doubtful. The days of WN favoring secondary airports is over. The business model has changed.
 
wjcandee
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:56 am

Ugh. They are already using that annoying Southwest capitalization style in their press releases.
 
wwtraveler99
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:31 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
Got that right! I guess MIA and WN couldn't come to a fee agreement suitable for WN ops. IAD is a bit of a surprise, but WN already (barely) serves the station so...
Quoting steex (Reply 11):
I obviously don't expect it, but it would be pretty funny if a mere two days from now we see announcements about WN introducing IAD-ATL service and opening a station at BMI on June 3, 2012.

I wouldn't count these out yet. June is a long way away. Typically WN will open or announce a new station 4 to 6 months in advance. So they could simply wait until Jan. or Feb. to announce new cities. (MIA?) Just because a schedule is released doesn't mean it is all-inclusive. They could hold back a few items until a later date.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 16):
Given that we know that WN isn't leaving IAD and yet they've discussed a "closure" there, I wouldn't count WN out of any of these cities for another week or so (that's not to say that I'm especially optimistic about BMI).

This to me almost proves my point, that WN still may have plans for one or more of the FL cities that are suppose to close. I mean really, why even announce they will close IAD. Just simply move the flights to WN metal and call it a day. WN is not leaving IAD. I don't think they will leave MIA (yes i know WN doesnt serve MIA) but I think you get the point. Now BMI, CRW, and TYS, I don't enought about them as a market. With that said I think they are gone for good.


WW
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:41 am

Quoting WWTRAVELER99 (Reply 29):
This to me almost proves my point, that WN still may have plans for one or more of the FL cities that are suppose to close. I mean really, why even announce they will close IAD. Just simply move the flights to WN metal and call it a day. WN is not leaving IAD. I don't think they will leave MIA (yes i know WN doesnt serve MIA) but I think you get the point. Now BMI, CRW, and TYS, I don't enought about them as a market. With that said I think they are gone for good.

IAD aside, the cities that FL is pulling are done..
 
FlyPeoria
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:45 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 12):
As for who will benefit the most from FL leaving BMI, remember this old saying: "Will it play in Peoria"?

In reality, the whole Central Illinois market is sized for only one strong airport, but it has four weak airports. Now that FL is leaving MLI, the catalyst is in place for much-needed regionalization in the area.

Central Illinois has two strong (BMI and PIA) airports and two weak airports (CMI and SPI), plus an EAS airport (DEC).

Some are speculating that UA might return to the BMI market (they left in late 2008, IIRC). I disagree. It seems to me that what made BMI successful was FL alone (and aggressive promotion by former director Mike LaPier). Without an LCC like FL, BMI has no advantage but its central Iocation, and I can't think of any LCC that they could attract that would fill the gap FL is leaving.

The primary beneficiary of FL's pullout from BMI is certainly PIA. But IMHO, it really depends on what DL does. If it decides to resume PIA-ATL, it will most certainly raise fares (and reduce capacity) on BMI-ATL. But if it sticks with BMI as its sole central Illinois ATL spoke, I can see them raising fares a bit but maintaining 3-4 roundtrips.

I wouldn't be surprised to see DL drop its BMI-MSP flight (PIA-MSP is down to 1 daily as well, so perhaps its days are numbered as well).

In a way it's duplicative for AA to fly DFW-BMI/CMI/PIA/SPI, but I don't see them eliminating these.

Hey, maybe WN will announce PIA-ATL/BWI/MCI/MCO on Sunday?  
 
SurfandSnow
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:48 am

So the rumors about 5 cities getting cut were correct, but I'm pretty none of us got 5/5 correct!

1) CRW - Everyone knew this one was a goner. A market that can't support more than 100 daily seats to Chicago (Eagle certainly didn't last long against incumbent UAX on the ORD-CRW route) was never going to be a viable addition to the WN network. Oh well, they still have cheap nonstop service down to Florida on NK.

2) TYS - Many expected all of the p2p Florida markets to go, but it seemed TYS stood the best chance of survival based on their success record with LCCs (G4 and now F9). I, for one, must have overestimated the market's potential. Then again, service to 3 markets in Tennessee alone might have been a bit much for an airline that until 2011 had served all of the southern states via single centralized gateways (i.e. BNA for Tennessee, RDU for North Carolina, LIT for Arkansas, BHM for Alabama, ORF for Virginia, MSY for Louisiana). Oh well, it's pretty safe to say that the more important MEM will be getting Canyon Blue service while folks in Knoxville will have to endure the trek to GSP, BNA, ATL, or BHM to catch their WN flights.

3) BMI - This is without a doubt the station I feel most sorry for. It thrived in the FL system, but could never work for WN. Over the years they always mustered up enough Florida-bound pax to fill a few daily flights to ATL and Florida, but there's just no way they could conceivably fill daily mainline planes to anywhere else (DEN, BWI, etc.). Depending on where you are in the catchment area, you'll be looking at a pretty lengthy drive to MDW, STL, or IND if you want to take WN. Hopefully BMI will be able to snag a new tenant or two, and I suppose BMI's loss is every other nearby airport's potential gain. Competition between BMI, CMI, SPI, and PIA could get interesting now that the playing field is more or less level between them...

4) MIA - All signs indicated that this station would not be getting closed, but massively expanded! What a shock to see it on the list today. I still believe that WN wants in to MIA (it would further their ongoing strategy to add service to the key markets and airports heavily used by business pax), and is either using this press release as a bargaining chip with MIA authorities - give us a good deal or lose your only American LCC service - or an opportunity to start their own "new" flights to MIA. WN does not want to be the bad guy; after all it is FL publicly dropping the flights - not them. WN could come in as the white knight, with something like 10x daily flights starting on June 3rd  . I almost wonder if the start of ATL was a clue to their strategy - FL-only markets may all be opened in old-fashioned WN style. FL will pull out, and WN will make a splashy debut. Perhaps not the tried and true sign change on a given day, where all else stays the same.

5) IAD - Hardly surprising, but I guess we were expecting to see a fifth FL-only market on the list instead of an overlap station. I doubt WN will even bother adding replacement IAD-ATL flights, and whenever MDW-DCA begins I would not be surprised to see WN shut down their IAD ops too. Why even bother keeping up the fight against UA on its hub-hub DEN-IAD and CHI-IAD routes?

Some surprise keeps, though!

ABE - Despite being quite close to EWR and PHL, it will stay. I know it's a decent sized market, but its not like Pennsylvania has done wonders for WN.
BDA - Int'l stuff won't be "WN" for a while, but it will still be interesting to have a small seasonal market enter a network characterized by multiple daily (year round) flights.
BKG - Hey, if ECP can buy WN service, why can't they?
EYW - The high yielding potential probably outweighs all of the operational challenges that the incredibly short runway present. A great niche market IMO.
FNT - I suppose consolidation in Southeastern Michigan is not the priority that it was in Hampton Roads!
HPN - They'll only be able to do 5 daily flights, but its the SNA of the East (high yielding capacity restricted community airport serving the very wealthy fringe of a major metropolitan area) and WN will probably grow in time as competitors cut back.
HSV - Despite the chorus of naysayers it has survived 2 rounds of cuts! I guess the potential really is there!
ICT - Apparently a very weak station, but it should do much better once connected to major WN hubs in nearby states.
LEX - The biggest surprise of all. A Florida-only market survives, despite its proximity to SDF! Did the airport work magic or what?

I think everything else was more or less expected to stay - right?
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bobnwa
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:32 pm

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):
BMI surprises me. DL lost a big corporate contract in the market to FL recently. I

What was the account DL lost
 
atlprep1
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:56 pm

While sad news for BMI, this is certainly good news for the folks at SPI who I think will benefit the most...as there will no longer be a compelling reason to make the tedious trip up I-55 to Bloomington. SPI has seen steady double digit growth the past 2 years as the locals have responded well to new AA nonstop to DFW service. United Express has added an additional daiy to ORD due to growth. In addition, DirectAir is offering exclusive to central Illinois seasonal flights to Myrtle beach, Punta Gorda and now Lakeland which has recieved huge regional response. I predict AA will add a third daily flight to DFW and the long rumored entry of Delta may soon follow. Thoughts?
 
toltommy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 2:06 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 33):
What was the account DL lost

See reply 7. Like a good neighbor, sales reps will be calling.....
 
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:42 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 32):

Humorous 1 man focus-group on the discontinued markets.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 32):
Some surprise keeps, though!

You act as if the cuts are over....
 
Flytravel
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:54 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 7):
IAD already has Southwest, so no loss there.

It will lose nonstop access to ATL by one carrier, and Florida access. However, those pax can fly FL out of DCA. Unless, WN launches IAD-ATL, when the codeshare out of ATL is ready. My guess is DCA over IAD.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 32):
A Florida-only market survives, despite its proximity

I wonder if they are just temporary reprieves. Maybe it'd make too much news if the announcement is FL operated by WN is cutting a dozen+ cities at once, so staging the closings over a period of months makes it looks less bad.

But some current Florida only could be saved, even though TYS wasn't. Why doesn't FL permit routes like MDT-MCO-ATL, MDT-MCO-HOU and permit connections in MCO besides San Juan? Maybe WN will permit this, and just add some MDW, STL or BNA access dependent on proximity, along with Florida, to reach up to 5-6 flights/day.

The Knoxville-Sevierville-La Follette CSA was slightly over 1 million, according to the 2010 Census. Maybe the number is too low, and WN wants about 1.5-2 million or so for consideration where another WN airport isn't closer. Doesn't explain why LEX which represents a smaller CSA stays though in this current round, but it probably could be cut too.

[Edited 2011-11-12 07:57:02]
 
kbmiflyer
Posts: 165
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:01 pm

Quoting atlprep1 (Reply 34):
I predict AA will add a third daily flight to DFW and the long rumored entry of Delta may soon follow

My understanding is the SPI-DFW flights are somehow subsidized. I would be surprised if a third flight is added (I am somewhat surprised they started with two, since CMI and BMI only have 1). I am not sure how well the flights are doing, SPI flights seem to always cheaper than PIA, CMI, and BMI on flights through DFW.

I agree that the big winner here is probably PIA. Peoria's economy is pretty strong right now with CAT doing well and they have what I hear is a nice new terminal

State Farm has made it clear that they are in expense savings mode, and the car plant in Normal is not really doing that well, so BMI business traffic is probably down a little (although BMI did just have a record month for boardings).

The government is a mess in Springfield, so I don't think they can really support many more flights. CMI doesn't really have any natural business traffic with only the university in town.

I think a couple scenarios are likely.

Delta will move their focus to PIA, and move some or all of their Atlanta flights there. This will reduce BMI and a few AA flights and a few DL flights, leaving it almost in the same boat as CMI.

BMI will convince DL to stay close to their current levels (4-5 round trips per day on 70 seat aircraft), and entice AA to add one additional frequency to ORD and DFW. This will replace about 100 seats at BMI. Outside chance UA comes back, but they really never were very strong here, and aren't even particularly strong at PIA.

CMI may gain a little more AA service to make up for the folks they were losing to BMI, but I don't see any additional service being added there (I don't really see the recent Vision flights they added lasting). AA has been reducing CMI service, and primarily flies there because it is an overnight maintenance hub.

Sorry, I really don't see SPI gaining much here. I could be wrong.
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:03 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 37):
I wonder if they are just temporary reprieves. Maybe it'd make too much news if the announcement is FL operated by WN is cutting a dozen+ cities at once, so staging the closings over a period of months makes it looks less bad.

Someone gets it! That's what's happening. This is just round two.. I wouldn't be surprised to see round three in Spring and round four come summer/fall.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:12 pm

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 36):
You act as if the cuts are over....
Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 39):
Someone gets it! That's what's happening. This is just round two.. I wouldn't be surprised to see round three in Spring and round four come summer/fall.

Yes...can we expect WN/FL to announce additional closures at some point over the next 6 months? And will there be any signal given as to "all clear" for the remaining FL stations, or can we presume that nothing is safe until the AirTran logo has been wiped off the Earth and operations fully integrated?
 
atrude777
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:27 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 40):

Yes...can we expect WN/FL to announce additional closures at some point over the next 6 months? And will there be any signal given as to "all clear" for the remaining FL stations, or can we presume that nothing is safe until the AirTran logo has been wiped off the Earth and operations fully integrated?

I have a feeling contracts are whats causing the "Series" of closures, and not everything at once, with vendors, and subsidiaries etc etc. (Feeling not a fact, I will gladly be proven wrong)

So...it's probably until the FL logo and signs are off and everything is SWA, and even then, that doesn't mean these cities will never come back. WN will return to a city if they see profit to be made later down the road.

We shall see if WN will announce on their own metal IAD-ATL (or keep the code share of ATL-DCA and consider that DC flying between BWI/DCA), and also announce MIA on their own metal too.

Tomorrow is the big day! (Though am surprised it's on a Sunday?)

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
F9Fan
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:08 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 23):

I don't think the two overlap as much as you think. I bet most of the "DCA-MDW" traffic on WN today is using BWI because it's so much easier to get in to the District.

BWI is very well integrated into the Washington DC/Baltimore transit systems. There is a commuter rail and light rail station at the airport as well as an express bus that connects to the DC Metro. DCA has its own Metro stop with direct connection into the terminal. Right now, IAD is the least connected of the three DC airports. Currently, there is only an express bus to the airport, although there is a Metro line under construction to IAD

Quoting WWTRAVELER99 (Reply 29):
I don't think they will leave MIA (yes i know WN doesnt serve MIA)

MIA wasn't surprising to me considering what WN has at FLL. FLL connects very easily into the South Florida metro area, and there are a ton of cruise ship passengers to keep 737s full every weekend.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:26 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 37):
The Knoxville-Sevierville-La Follette CSA was slightly over 1 million, according to the 2010
Census. Maybe the number is too low, and WN wants about 1.5-2 million or so for consideration where another WN airport isn't closer.

I don't understand why TYS couldn't/can't work if GSP works - the fundamentals are really similar; TYS is somewhat smaller but has the University and government traffic to Oak Ridge.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Flytravel
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:45 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 43):
I don't understand why TYS couldn't/can't work if GSP works - the fundamentals are really similar; TYS is somewhat smaller but has the University and government traffic to Oak Ridge.

I wonder if GSP made it into the system just with good luck and timing, in the sense that it was announced prior to the FL acquisition and approval. GSP was announced May 2010, while the FL acquisition was announced Sep. 2010. Also along with it's own msa (1.2 million), it is the nearest WN airport to Asheville and Columbia, SC and Augusta, GA's msa with high fares, whereas TYS has two huge WN stations ATL and BNA and no MSAs on the periphery.

There is ATL and soon CLT to fill the southeast- so if the time events were the other way, with FL acquisition announced in May 2010, I doubt WN would have gone to GSP in 2010.

[Edited 2011-11-12 10:49:45]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:52 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 44):
it is the nearest WN airport to Asheville and Columbia, SC and Augusta, GA's msa with high fares, whereas TYS has two huge WN stations ATL and BNA and no MSAs on the periphery.

Downtown Columbia-GSP: 109 miles
Downtown Asheville-GSP: 63 miles
Downtown Augusta-GSP: 130 miles

Meanwhile . . .

Downtown Asheville-TYS: 129 miles
Downtown Chattanooga-TYS: 116 miles
Downtown Kingsport-TYS: 116 miles

I'd say the "peripheral MSA" argument is about a wash.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
RamblinMan
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:54 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 43):
I don't understand why TYS couldn't/can't work if GSP works - the fundamentals are really similar; TYS is somewhat smaller but has the University and government traffic to Oak Ridge.

Agreed. I honestly expected WN to grow TYS. It's about 180 miles to BNA, not exactly close.
 
wnflyguy
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 7:37 pm

I think when it's all said and done you will see southwest keep only about 10 to 15 airtran cities total.
As for seeing a big annocements tomarrow of new service southwest usealy gives it's self about a 3 to 4 month window when adding new servive for sale. So yes we may see finaly a reless of a full southwest airtran code share tomarrow. But in true southwest fashion new service annocements most likely will be held off until FEB or MAR 2012 schudle releas.
But like all of us airliner.net nerds will thum thru the relessed schudle and find the big gaps in flight times and try and connect the dots.And like always the winter time rumors will run wild and we will all banter back and forth whats true and whats far fetched all in the name of airline nerdieness and fun.But end the end ONLY the GK and the BILL Owens of WN know the real truth of southwest's PLAN A and their not telling anyone anything so enjoy what we get for now and let the drum roll start for the sundays reless....I'm off to do the texas two step enjoy wnfg  

[Edited 2011-11-12 12:23:45]
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
FlyPeoria
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:24 pm

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
My understanding is the SPI-DFW flights are somehow subsidized. I would be surprised if a third flight is added (I am somewhat surprised they started with two, since CMI and BMI only have 1). I am not sure how well the flights are doing, SPI flights seem to always cheaper than PIA, CMI, and BMI on flights through DFW.

AA's 2 SPI-DFW flights replaced 2 SPI-ORD. Load factors increased with the shift, but there is money from the airport to cover costs if necessary.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
I agree that the big winner here is probably PIA. Peoria's economy is pretty strong right now with CAT doing well and they have what I hear is a nice new terminal

Peoria's MSA is about 376,000, which by far the largest in central Illinois, and 200,000+ more than Bloomington-Normal's MSA. Granted, both airports' catchment areas overlap. Caterpillar is expanding rapidly (it seems to announce a new facility and/or expansion each week   Just yesterday, they announced they were going to DOUBLE large track-type tractor production at E. Peoria) and generates a lot of international pax for the airlines. The new terminal opened April 26-27 and has plenty of room for more service. PIA may have built it just in time as the old one was too crowded.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
State Farm has made it clear that they are in expense savings mode, and the car plant in Normal is not really doing that well, so BMI business traffic is probably down a little (although BMI did just have a record month for boardings).

State Farm should have some sway with airlines.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
The government is a mess in Springfield, so I don't think they can really support many more flights. CMI doesn't really have any natural business traffic with only the university in town.

Another thing is that SPI is too close to STL. More pax will now drive there to fly WN instead of to BMI to fly FL.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
Delta will move their focus to PIA, and move some or all of their Atlanta flights there. This will reduce BMI and a few AA flights and a few DL flights, leaving it almost in the same boat as CMI.

It is possible that DL will take a wait-and-see attitude regarding load factors on BMI-ATL. I doubt we'll see any changes until near FL's June 3 exit. But a large chunk of those pax drove from areas closer to PIA, so to be competitive with AA and UA, I could see them resume one daily PIA-ATL to start. Or, they might go with 2 daily PIA-ATL and drop PIA-DTW from 4 to 3.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
BMI will convince DL to stay close to their current levels (4-5 round trips per day on 70 seat aircraft), and entice AA to add one additional frequency to ORD and DFW. This will replace about 100 seats at BMI. Outside chance UA comes back, but they really never were very strong here, and aren't even particularly strong at PIA.

I can see AA adding 1 flight each to ORD and DFW, though perhaps only if DL reduces service.

Quoting kbmiflyer (Reply 38):
CMI may gain a little more AA service to make up for the folks they were losing to BMI, but I don't see any additional service being added there (I don't really see the recent Vision flights they added lasting). AA has been reducing CMI service, and primarily flies there because it is an overnight maintenance hub.

At peak, AA had 7 daily CMI-ORD and 1 daily CMI-DFW (IIRC), so perhaps those levels will return in time. I can see DL possibly coming back to CMI, maybe with flights to DTW.

Another thing to ponder is what effect FL's pullout will have on BMI's costs. I've always wondered why DL decided to challenge FL's central Illinois franchise on their own turf. That, IMHO, actually helped them by keeping airport costs lower through economies of scale. It would have made more sense to fly ATL-CMI/PIA/SPI, thus keeping relatively large numbers of pax from even using BMI.
 
HSVXJ
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RE: FL To Close Certain Stations In 2012

Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:00 am

Wow. HSV survived another round. From the very beginning, I hoped that HSV would stay, though if I had to put money on it, I would say that they wouldn't. I really hope to be proven wrong.

In the very least, I think WN is seeing what a special market HSV really is. It may not have the population of the normal WN city, but it has an economy and business environment that rivals those of much bigger metros. With those new DCA slots, maybe WN realizes that they can make a killing on DCA and HOU routes. For years, HSV has lost traffic to BNA and BHM WN, but those were almost always low yielding leisure passengers. Business travelers just don't have the desire or time to drive all of that way just to fly WN, though they'd like to. With WN in HSV, they'll have a chance to capture a lot of the business travelers who DL and AA have been making a killing on through the years. The caveat would be, having worked at HSV for years, I know that a lot of the business travelers are so invested in their respective FF programs that many will not switch. So, I can only hope for the best.

Besides, when I move back to the states next year, most likely to SEA, I'd love to be able to fly WN on my visits back home.

Chris
Nature forms us for ourselves, not for others; to be, not to seem.

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