Oykie
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Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:25 am

Though this news warrants its own thread.

According to Global News Embraer partners with Alcoa to improve planes aimed at Bombardier's CSeries.

From the article Embraer announced

Quote:
Thursday a technology sharing agreement that will use Alcoa's proprietary aluminum alloys, advanced design and manufacturing techniques, and its fastener technologies to support the development of a new fuselage and wings for its current family of aircraft.



Here is a link to the news article: http://www.globalnews.ca/money/embra...r39s+cseries/6442524155/story.html


Embraer is the first planemaker who will take advantage of the new alloy and advanced structural technologies that will reduce weight. According to Alcoa a plane built arround this new technology will have 10% weight savings, and up to 30% lower maintenance cost. Alcoa went as far in june to suggest that their new technology would make a plane 12% more efficient on top of 15% that is offered with newer engines.


Here is a link to the Alcoa press release: http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/news/...eID=20110609005855en&newsYear=2011

The new alloy and technology from Alcoa seems so promising that I am sure other airplane makers will follow.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
VC10er
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:37 am

I know some of the engineers at Embraer and have worked with their entire exec team when they created the Phenom and Lineage to round out their exec jet portfolio. Never did I meet a smarter team nor a nicer client. I can only wish great fortune to one of the jewels of Brazil.
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
Oykie
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:45 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 1):
I can only wish great fortune to one of the jewels of Brazil.

They seem to have found a large niche, were they can excel! I also wish them good luck. Their new E-JET have a large R&D than both the neo and MAX. It suggest that their new update will be very advanced, and this news highlights this.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
PDPsol
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 3:51 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 1):
Never did I meet a smarter team nor a nicer client.

Embraer must have an excellent team to develop and produce their terrific aircraft. However, at least one person, the gentleman responsible for SSJ International, does not believe they are "nice". In fact, he argues in the article below Embraer engages in business practices he believes are "even in bad faith".

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...h-embraer-in-latin-america-365038/

Of course, SSJ is a competitor to Embraer, just as BBD is a competitor, and just as MRJ soon will be. Anything a competitor says about his competition should be be viewed as a biased statement.

I firmly believe Embraer made the right choice to enhance the capabilities of its existing E-Jet product with new engines, new aluminum technologies, new systems, etc., rather than launch a completely new program.

Perhaps this new ALCOA aluminum technology will prove to be superior to composite materials, a wonderful development considering the endless problems Boeing has experienced with its 787 program.
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:31 pm

Nearly three years ago I compared standard CS100(then known as CS110) to E-195LR in reply #19 in the following thread. CS100 seemed to burn 10% less fuel per seat.

Roughly speaking, a 10% lighter and 15% lower tsfc E195LR would have a substantial efficiency advantage over standard CS100. The revised E195LR should nearly add another 400-500nm to its design range.

A further stretch of E195LR with a Y class capacity of 130 could hit a range of 2,000nm if the promised 15% reduction in tsfc and 10% weight savings is acheived. Such a stretch will very effectively challenge the CS300 if one does not need the longer range of CS300.
C110 Versus E190 Economic Analysis (by LAXDESI Jul 19 2008 in Tech Ops)

Estimated C110 cabin dimensions:
Length 78 feet
Width 10.75 feet
Cabin Area 839 sq. feet
No. of single class seats: 110 at 32" pitch (5-abreast)

Estimated E-195 cabin dimensions:
Length 92.5 feet
Width 9 feet
Cabin Area 833 sq. feet
No. of single class seats: 108 at 32" pitch (4-abreast)

Note below a summary of estimated technical specifications for C110 and E195 LR:
OEW 75,000 63,603
MTOW 120,700 111,972
MZFW 105,800 93,696
MSP 30,800 30,093 (Max. Structural Payload)
Range 2,200 2,300 (Max. Design Range in nm)

Let me present each aircraft under the assumption of a 1,000 nm (JFK-MIA) mission:
C110 cargo 6,050 lbs, trip fuel burned 1,456 gallons.
E195 LR cargo 5,793 lbs, trip fuel burned 1,589 gallons.

C110 burns less fuel for the trip, saving about $500 in fuel cost. It can also carry 2 additional passengers.

In terms of GSM(gallon seat mile) and GTM(gallon ton mile), the C110 is 10% more efficient than the E195LR. I suppose it may be possible for Embraer to reduce this advantage by 4-5% by 2013, which is the EIS date of C110.
 
Oykie
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:54 pm

Quoting pdpsol (Reply 3):
Perhaps this new ALCOA aluminum technology will prove to be superior to composite materials, a wonderful development considering the endless problems Boeing has experienced with its 787 program.

If the material handles more like ordinary aluminum than the carbon fiber 787 I would tend to agree that such a development would bo more of a low risk approach. That being said, I from what I have got to know about the barrel design on the 787, is that there is room for improvement in that manufacturing technology.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 4):
A further stretch of E195LR with a Y class capacity of 130 could hit a range of 2,000nm if the promised 15% reduction in tsfc and 10% weight savings is acheived. Such a stretch will very effectively challenge the CS300 if one does not need the longer range of CS300.

Interesting analysis LAXDESI. It will be interesting to see how much of the plane ends up with the new Alcoa technology. The 10% weight savings probably means the whole plane must use Alcoa's new technology.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
jacobin777
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:42 pm

LAXDESI..what would be interesting is if Boeing incorporated this (along with a new wing, etc.) to their potential B77X.

It would certainly change a lot of numbers when comparing this to the A35J..  
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LAXDESI
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:56 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
LAXDESI..what would be interesting is if Boeing incorporated this (along with a new wing, etc.) to their potential B77X.

It would certainly change a lot of numbers when comparing this to the A35J

If Alcoa alloy delivers the promised reduction, it should make the 777X more competitive than what my analysis currently shows. But it would still fall short unless the new Alcoa material is lighter than CFRP.

I think the critical point is the capacity dividing line between 9-abreast and 10-abreast. Cross posting my comments from another thread on A35J/B77X below:

For equivalent technolgy, my analysis suggests that 9-abreast aircraft will be more efficient than 10-abreast below 370-380 seats(3 class marketing configuration). B77X, with the proposed changes, is unlikely to offer the level of efficiency an all new 10-abreast design would provide. B77X is unlikely to beat the revised A350-1000 on GSM(gallon seat mile) or GTM(gallon ton mile).
 
328JET
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:03 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
It would certainly change a lot of numbers

It would also change a lot of thinking about all the benefits of CFRP.
 
mham001
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:06 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 7):

LAXDESI, have any of your analyses ever proven out?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:29 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 7):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
LAXDESI..what would be interesting is if Boeing incorporated this (along with a new wing, etc.) to their potential B77X.

It would certainly change a lot of numbers when comparing this to the A35J

If Alcoa alloy delivers the promised reduction, it should make the 777X more competitive than what my analysis currently shows. But it would still fall short unless the new Alcoa material is lighter than CFRP.

I think the critical point is the capacity dividing line between 9-abreast and 10-abreast. Cross posting my comments from another thread on A35J/B77X below:

A B77X with improved aerodynamics, structure, engines, etc. would probably be a very competitive plane to the A35J, even in the seating numbers you provided. In other words, the B77X with "true" 10-across would competitively match the A35J with 9-across if the sized of the plane were relatively the same.

If I'm not mistaken, according to your modeling, the B77X would have to increase size (stretch) over the A35J to improve its CASM, etc.

I do agree a "clean sheet" design would be optimal.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 8):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
It would certainly change a lot of numbers

It would also change a lot of thinking about all the benefits of CFRP.

Possibly, but there might be other inherent benefits with CFRP such as manufacturing costs, speed, efficiency, etc. I really don't know the answer to that however..
"Up the Irons!"
 
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Acey559
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:53 pm

There was an article in one of the local papers here in the Quad Cities a while back about some sort of new aluminium alloy that Alcoa just finished developing and implementing at the Riverdale, Iowa plant just north of here. I wonder if some/any of the production will be done here? I know a fair amount of A380 aluminium work is done here, and a good amount of Boeing aluminium work is done here as well. I always enjoy hearing of increased aerospace work at Alcoa here locally, but good news for Alcoa and the industry as a whole!
 
amccann
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:34 pm

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 11):
There was an article in one of the local papers here in the Quad Cities a while back about some sort of new aluminium alloy that Alcoa just finished developing and implementing at the Riverdale, Iowa plant just north of here.

I believe it was the joint venture project with Spirit AeroSystems. It was the development of an aluminum-lithium alloy.

The benefits of further development of aluminum alloys is that aluminum is a recyclable material. Composites for the most part are a non recyclable material. Recycling methods do exist for composites but are not yet viable on the large scale required by the future of the aerospace industry. Another benefit of aluminum development is the continued use of existing infrastructure, the joint venture between Alcoa and Spirit was to demonstrate the manufacturability of the advanced new alloy.

http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/news/...eID=20110619005074en&newsYear=2011
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planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:42 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 4):
Let me present each aircraft under the assumption of a 1,000 nm (JFK-MIA) mission:
C110 cargo 6,050 lbs, trip fuel burned 1,456 gallons.
E195 LR cargo 5,793 lbs, trip fuel burned 1,589 gallons.

C110 burns less fuel for the trip, saving about $500 in fuel cost. It can also carry 2 additional passengers.

In terms of GSM(gallon seat mile) and GTM(gallon ton mile), the C110 is 10% more efficient than the E195LR. I suppose it may be possible for Embraer to reduce this advantage by 4-5% by 2013, which is the EIS date of C110.

You may want to comment on other factors in addition to fuel burn in your analysis. BTW, OEM's typically use 500nm trip length in their marketing material since average flights are well under 1,000 nm. (for example, Southwest's average trip length is 653 sm). This more representative of actual ops for a few reasons. First, it reduces the fuel/trip cost delta. Second, the shorter the flight segment, the more that weight related charges factor in the trip costs and less that fuel does (the inverse the longer the flight). Third, maintenance costs, particularly cycle items, are also a significant factor. Last, but not least, is purchase cost.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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Acey559
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:11 am

Quoting amccann (Reply 12):

Very interesting, thanks for sharing.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:53 am

Does anyone have any data about how the al-li BBD is using on the CSeries compares with this new Alcoa alloy?
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:18 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 15):
Does anyone have any data about how the al-li BBD is using on the CSeries compares with this new Alcoa alloy?

On page 9 of this Alcoa briefing they state that current state of the art is 5%-10% lighter structures from 787 design freeze and improved corrosion resistance and +2015 EIS it will be 10%-20% lighter and extended inspection/MRO...

http://www.slideshare.net/alcoa/alcoa-aerospace-briefing

Interesting are the claims vs CFRP on pages 18 & 19.

Here are a couple of short marketing videos from Paris...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeUYLxNTqI8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqzUJXFII7o
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
N62NA
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:26 am

Quoting pdpsol (Reply 3):
Perhaps this new ALCOA aluminum technology will prove to be superior to composite materials, a wonderful development considering the endless problems Boeing has experienced with its 787 program.

Wow, imagine if that were true! Then the 787 would surely be a unique "oddity" and perhaps a footnote in aviation history.
 
planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:36 am

Quoting N62NA (Reply 17):
Wow, imagine if that were true!

Alcoa claims that it is superior on pages 18 & 19...

http://www.slideshare.net/alcoa/alcoa-aerospace-briefing
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:57 am

One of the beauties of new aluminum alloys is that weight savings and other benefits, (increased corrosion resistance for one), can possibly be introduced without changing the construction methods currently in use. Forms, jigs and drilling machines may be able to be kept as is, significantly reducing upgrade cost and time.

Perhaps the CSeries can incrementally introduce even lighter and newer alloys as they come available to allow for pip's down the road.

Other planes like the 330 and 777 may also gain some competitiveness by upgrading to the new alloys.

Everything old is new again...
What the...?
 
Oykie
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:26 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 16):
Interesting are the claims vs CFRP on pages 18 & 19.

Here are a couple of short marketing videos from Paris...

Thanks for sharing some interesting information. It will be interesting to see how much weight savings Embraer will get out of their E-JET.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
Other planes like the 330 and 777 may also gain some competitiveness by upgrading to the new alloys.

Is this a possible scenario? That Airbus and Boeing does incremental changes from current material to this new one? Embraer seems to change much in one go. But Airbus and Boeing seems like they prefer the incremental upgrade to keep their high production rate.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
queb
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:42 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 15):
Does anyone have any data about how the al-li BBD is using on the CSeries compares with this new Alcoa alloy?
http://www.riotintoalcan.com/ENG/media/media_releases_1986.asp

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...-long-term-agreement-98806754.html
http://www.constellium.com/business-...olutions/global-ati/brands/airware

[Edited 2011-11-19 05:54:09]
 
queb
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:10 pm

In 2007, Bombardier and Alcoa worked together for the developpement of new al-li alloys (2099 & 2199) for the CSeries but Bombardier finally choose Constellium Airware product .

http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/innov...papers_patents/pdf/LMT2007_110.pdf
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:24 pm

Quoting queb (Reply 21):

Good info...thanks.

Quoting queb (Reply 22):

I believe Alcoa bought out Alcan so they would at least have a stake in Airware.
What the...?
 
queb
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:39 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 23):
I believe Alcoa bought out Alcan so they would at least have a stake in Airware.

No, Alcan is now Rio Tinto Alcan since 2007, a division of Rio Tinto. Nothing to do with Alcoa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcan
 
2175301
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sat Nov 19, 2011 7:12 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 17):
Wow, imagine if that were true! Then the 787 would surely be a unique "oddity" and perhaps a footnote in aviation history.


While the AL-Li alloy will allow improvements in new metal airlines - composite technology for large aircraft fuselages is in its first generation with the 787, and I am sure there will be improvements once Boeing gets mass production of the 787 running well. I would not rule out composites yet for future aircraft.

In addition, many of the estimated lives for various elements of the 787 were conservative by nature given this is the first large scale application. Should the composite barrels and wings of the 787 stand up and age significantly better than current conservative estimates it may well drive an advantage for all large planes to composites, and reach down in size to smaller planes as well.

I also take Alcoa's claimed improvements with a grain of salt. I suspect the average performance will be about 1/2 - 2/3 of the claimed (which is a significant improvement). Marketing claims (by all parties) tend to focus on some limited application where it has the maximum advantage, not on the most general usage.

However, the reality is these questions are really long term ones. It will take 10 years from now to begin to get a good clue on how well the 787 is aging, and 20 years to get a good answer on long term aging.

Have a great day,
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:03 am

Quoting queb (Reply 24):

You are correct...it would be interesting to have a side by side comparison of the Alcan and Alcoa alloys. They both seem to have similar claims.
What the...?
 
VC10er
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sun Nov 20, 2011 5:04 pm

Quoting pdpsol (Reply 3):

Well I must admit the "toughest" crowd at EMB was the sales force. As they would need to be. I delt with R&D, marketing and communications services (branding & design) and the Exec team up to Fred. Smart and filled with Brazilian warmth.

I witnessed anger and nasty language when some of the other competitors made infuriating unkind remarks about Brazilians and labeled them in very negative ways. One word of advice...never insult or make a slur against Brazil or it's people to a Brazilian. They are fiercely patriotic and will no longer endure comments about the days when it was a less than a developing nation. And don't go to Embraer and say "oh boy, look at all those beautiful jungle jets"
Then they arent quite as nice. Justifiably so in my opinion. E-jets are one of my favorite jets to fly on.
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
ferpe
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sun Nov 20, 2011 6:45 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 18):
Alcoa claims that it is superior on pages 18 & 19...

Guys, please read the fine print:

- ...up to XX% lighter... the problem is the "up to"

- ...YY% lighter when optimally designed...with new methods.. the problems is the "new methods"

An alu frame is made of thousand of parts, some lend them selves to different AlLi compounds some others don't..

Having read through Alcoas catalog of offered Al products there are many, many different for different purposes on a plane. Some can be made "up to XX% lighter" others can't.

Let's not start another "CFRP will revolutionise aeronautics" again...   

If Embraer can save some % on the weight all other things being equal then it will be great and worth the effort but forget that it will compete with a CFRP rich equivalent approach.

But it is a good way to do a mid-life kicker a bit more exiting then just new engines   .

[Edited 2011-11-20 10:46:59]
Non French in France
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sun Nov 20, 2011 8:05 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 13):
BTW, OEM's typically use 500nm trip length in their marketing material since average flights are well under 1,000 nm. (for example, Southwest's average trip length is 653 sm). This more representative of actual ops for a few reasons. First, it reduces the fuel/trip cost delta. Second, the shorter the flight segment, the more that weight related charges factor in the trip costs and less that fuel does (the inverse the longer the flight).

Valid points. Analysis at 500nm would make the numbers slightly less favorable to CS100 on operational metric. Adding weight based airport charges will also go against CS100.

I beleive the list price of CS100 is nearly $3 million higher than E195LR, which translates to a $300,000 annual capital cost. In summary the nearly $1 million annual operating advantage of CS100 for a 1,000nm trip will be reduced by higher capital cost of $300,000 along with further reduction in operating advantage as the stage length decreases.

In summary, the E195LR(NG) could have higher NPV than the CS100 for many carriers. A simple 130 seat stretch of E195 should also be competitive against CS300 for short stage length missions. It is getting challenging for BBD with NEO/MAX from above and E195/E195 Stretch(NG) from below.
 
sf260
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Sun Nov 20, 2011 11:03 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 29):
A simple 130 seat stretch of E195 should also be competitive against CS300 for short stage length missions

I don't get why so many people compare a stretched E195 130-seater with the CS300. Imo, the CS100, which seats 125 at 30," will be the closest competitor to a 130-seat E195. The CS300 will seat 145 at a 30" seat pitch.
I can see the 195X and the CS100 being fairly close in operating cost, but the CS300 should smash the 195X based on CASM/K, if not, BBD did something really wrong.

Apart from that, Embrear should be really happy if they can achieve the same OEW with all the improvements and new engines.
All the new "super" light and strong (superior to CFRP) Al-Li alloys over which there is so much talk and cheer here lately, are still in a research stage. They're not mature enough to be used in production lines, it's going to take a few more years of material research before it can be used.
 
planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:03 pm

Quoting queb (Reply 24):
No, Alcan is now Rio Tinto Alcan since 2007, a division of Rio Tinto. Nothing to do with Alcoa.

It is a bit more complex... Rio Tinto only has has a 39% stake in Constellium with Apollo owing the majority 51% and FSI owning 10% (French Caisse des Dépôts 51% and the French government 49%).

http://www.parkersburgnews.com/page/...o-buys-part-of-Alcan.html?nav=5061

Quoting sf260 (Reply 30):
but the CS300 should smash the 195X based on CASM/K, if not, BBD did something really wrong.

It won't "smash" it for a couple of reasons. In fact, depending upon the mission profile, the 195X might even beat the CS300 on some short haul flying in Europe where weight related charges are much higher than in the USA.

Quoting sf260 (Reply 30):
All the new "super" light and strong (superior to CFRP) Al-Li alloys over which there is so much talk and cheer here lately, are still in a research stage. They're not mature enough to be used in production lines, it's going to take a few more years of material research before it can be used.

No they are not. The CSeries is already using Constellium's Al-Li alloy as was posted earlier in the thread by queb.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:13 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 31):
The CSeries is already using Constellium's Al-Li alloy as was posted earlier in the thread by queb.

Airware is also in use on the A380.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:35 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 32):
Airware is also in use on the A380.

Yes, and on the A350 as well. In military and space applications it is used on the F16 and on the Falcon X.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
MoltenRock
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:36 pm

Quoting sf260 (Reply 30):
I don't get why so many people compare a stretched E195 130-seater with the CS300. Imo, the CS100, which seats 125 at 30," will be the closest competitor to a 130-seat E195. The CS300 will seat 145 at a 30" seat pitch.

I can see the 195X and the CS100 being fairly close in operating cost, but the CS300 should smash the 195X based on CASM/K, if not, BBD did something really wrong.

The E195 as is now seats 122 in a high occupancy 30" pitch. If they stretch the plane by 3 frames which seems in the ballpark they are looking at for the E195-2G, that would give them 132 seats with a 30" pitch. (Why anyone would want to fly in a 30" pitch aircraft evade me, but I digress...) The "traditional mixed" seating is 120 to 122 on the CS300, and 104 to 106 on the E195. With a 3 frame stretch that's closer to a 116 to 118 on the E195-2G.

Additionally, Embraer has committed $3 billion dollars towards the upgrade, which they have stated includes new alloys, new wings, and new airframe pieces parts (Ie... main landing gear, fuselage). Remember, Embraer designed and launched the 170, 175, 190, and 195 for a cumulative $4 billion originally. Spending $3 billion means there are going to be some very significant improvements to the Ejets 2G program, and not a simple reengine only.

Given the Ejets have a 43% marketshare in their respective spheres, maintaining this share is crucial to Embraer. Once they have their new KC390 out of engineering, I would expect them to learn the lessons of their new larger plane experience and adapt them into a new step-sized increased commercial aircraft in the 150 passenger segment sometime in the early 2020s for EIS.



[Edited 2011-11-21 11:43:13]
 
sf260
Posts: 153
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:59 pm

RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:09 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 31):
No they are not.

I have expressed me wrong there. Al-Li has been used in since the 1950's, so you will find it in many airliners other than CSeries, A380, A350,... I was referring to the (even) more state-of-the-art Al-Li alloys, like Al-Li-Sc or other exotic additions. Mea culpa.

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 34):

The E195 as is now seats 122 in a high occupancy 30" pitch. If they stretch the plane by 3 frames which seems in the ballpark they are looking at for the E195-2G, that would give them 132 seats with a 30" pitch. (Why anyone would want to fly in a 30" pitch aircraft evade me, but I digress...) The "traditional mixed" seating is 120 to 122 on the CS300, and 104 to 106 on the E195. With a 3 frame stretch that's closer to a 116 to 118 on the E195-2G.

All major operators of the E195 do operate it in a high density 116-122 layout. So maybe that should be the base for comparision? That aside, I also also assumed a 2 frame stretch for the E195X (the same as E190->E195).

However, with a comparable two class layout, dedicated business class and 32" economy, the CS300 seats 120, the E-195 seats 102. With a 2 frame stretch that should become 110 (max). Right in the middle between the CS100 (which seats 100 in the same layout) and the CS300.
So when choosing the most favorable layout, the E195X will be right in the middle between both CSeries-models. In all other layouts it will be closer to a CS100, although the 195X will seat slightly more.

Apparently many people are willing to travel in a 29-30" economy, if the price is low enough. See Ryanair, EasyJet, Wizzair, FlyBe,... and all other LCC's.

After looking a bit more into current E-jet operators, I saw the E190 has sold five timas many as the E195. I hope for Embraer they can attract enough customers for the even longer jet, and it doesn't prove a stretch too far.
 
queb
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 34):
The "traditional mixed" seating is 120 to 122 on the CS300

To be precise :

CS100 :

- 125 seats with a 30" pitch
- 110 seats with a 32" pitch
- 100 seats with a 36/32" pitch (2 class 16/84)

CS300 :

- 145 seats with a 30" pitch
- 130 seats with a 32" pitch
- 120 seats with a 36/32" pitch (2 class 16/104)
 
LAXDESI
Posts: 2775
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:35 pm

Seat Guru shows Lufthansa E195 with 116 physical seats at 32" pitch, with eight of these blocked off to create business class in the first four rows.

Is the Seat Guru pitch of 32" in error?

Edited Comment:
The Embraer official site shows 118 seats at 31" pitch.

[Edited 2011-11-21 13:47:49]
 
queb
Posts: 843
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:36 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 37):
Seat Guru shows Lufthansa E195 with 116 physical seats at 32" pitch, with eight of these blocked off to create business class in the first four rows.

I don't have the same numbers  http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Lufthansa/Lufthansa_Embraer_195.php

And for me, a seat in business class is supposed to be wider than a seat in economy class.

[Edited 2011-11-21 17:38:07]
 
PPVRA
Posts: 7864
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:39 am

Quoting 328JET (Reply 8):
It would also change a lot of thinking about all the benefits of CFRP.
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 10):
Possibly, but there might be other inherent benefits with CFRP such as manufacturing costs, speed, efficiency, etc. I really don't know the answer to that however..

My guess is that CFRP will develop faster than metals. So I am still sticking with CFRP in the long run.And remember: Alcoa is comparing state of the art metal with 8 year old (787) composite technology. . .
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Oykie
Posts: 1563
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:46 am

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 34):
Remember, Embraer designed and launched the 170, 175, 190, and 195 for a cumulative $4 billion originally. Spending $3 billion means there are going to be some very significant improvements to the Ejets 2G program, and not a simple reengine only.

IMO this is what Airbus and Boeing should do with their respective planes. Invest just a little bit more than a minimum upgrade like Embraer here is doing would make them more competitive. I am aware of the return of investment theories, the high production rate, and the commonality aspect. But I am sure that with new alloys, and other fun stuff both planes could be even more competitive. I seems like Embraer will put a larger effort to make their already popular E-jets more competitive   
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
planemaker
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:43 am

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 34):
Embraer designed and launched the 170, 175, 190, and 195 for a cumulative $4 billion originally.

Actually it was only $1 billion.

Quoting sf260 (Reply 35):
I have expressed me wrong there. Al-Li has been used in since the 1950's, so you will find it in many airliners other than CSeries, A380, A350,...

Please list the "many" airliners that are using Al-Li alloys.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
MoltenRock
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:02 am

Quoting sf260 (Reply 35):
Apparently many people are willing to travel in a 29-30" economy, if the price is low enough. See Ryanair, EasyJet, Wizzair, FlyBe,... and all other LCC's.

And an equal number of us refuse to fly such sardine cans, and thus fly SQ, Asiana, QR, and Cathay, and pay the premium it costs to fly with a decent amount of room and amenities.

Quoting sf260 (Reply 35):
After looking a bit more into current E-jet operators, I saw the E190 has sold five timas many as the E195. I hope for Embraer they can attract enough customers for the even longer jet, and it doesn't prove a stretch too far.

Very few E190/195 operators run a cattle operation utilizing only 29" or 30" tin cans. JetBlue (100 seats - E190) has 33" economy seats, along with 38" "More Room" seats, all with an 18.25" wide seat, as does Air Canada with their E190s. Also, USAirways has similar pitches and seat widths. Lufthansa has 32" pitch seats and 108 seats total on their E195s.

Part of the reason the E195 has been a "slower" seller, is that it barely seats over 100 passengers, thus requiring another FA. However, with a stretch adding another 10 to 12 people, (118 to 120 seats) all of a sudden makes the E195-2G along with the additional range / lower fuel burn, quite significantly cheaper to operate. The best airframe size then is a tough competitor to the 737 and A319 programs.

Quoting oykie (Reply 41):
IMO this is what Airbus and Boeing should do with their respective planes. Invest just a little bit more than a minimum upgrade like Embraer here is doing would make them more competitive. I am aware of the return of investment theories, the high production rate, and the commonality aspect. But I am sure that with new alloys, and other fun stuff both planes could be even more competitive. I seems like Embraer will put a larger effort to make their already popular E-jets more competitive  

I really do see Embraer as being on the right track for such a large (yet small) company to battle the aero titans. Keeping their bread and butter (cashcow) E-Jets program being the formidable competitor it is, only helps fuel the companies expansion into other areas. Embraer's new KC390 program will give Embraer the technical knowhow and experience of building A320/B738 sized aircraft to then launch their own 6 abreast narrowbody in the early 2020s. Not to mention their new small drone program, that will help them continue to miniaturize aero pieces / parts, and diversify Embraer's overall risk portfolio.
 
328JET
Posts: 348
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:09 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 37):
Seat Guru shows Lufthansa E195 with 116 physical seats at 32" pitch, with eight of these blocked off to create business class in the first four rows.

Is the Seat Guru pitch of 32" in error?

Edited Comment:
The Embraer official site shows 118 seats at 31" pitch.

The next ERJ195s for the Lufthansa Group will have 120 seats - one row more than today because of the use of slimmer and lighter seats.
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 12:17 pm

I remember Airbus signed a contract woth billions with Alcoa about exactly these materials. So it looks only BBD and B still are not aboard...
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:36 pm

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 43):
I really do see Embraer as being on the right track for such a large (yet small) company to battle the aero titans.

EMB will not go up against the "aero titans". Having let the opportunity pass while both "aero titans" are only doing minimum upgrades, EMB is certainly not going to go head to head against the "aero titans" all-new NBs in the 2020's.

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 43):
Embraer's new KC390 program will give Embraer the technical knowhow and experience of building A320/B738 sized aircraft to then launch their own 6 abreast narrowbody in the early 2020s.

EMB already has the "technical knowhow and experience". And with an EIS date of 2018 for the updated E-jets, EMB is not going to embark on an a substantially more expensive program just a few years later when the "aero titans" will trump it.

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 43):
and diversify Embraer's overall risk portfolio.

EMB has already diversified the "overall risk portfolio" with the Legacy 600, Legacy 650, Lineage 1000 and the clean sheet Phenom 100, Phenom 300, Legacy 450 and Legacy 500.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
MoltenRock
Posts: 1030
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RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:13 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 46):
EMB has already diversified the "overall risk portfolio" with the Legacy 600, Legacy 650, Lineage 1000 and the clean sheet Phenom 100, Phenom 300, Legacy 450 and Legacy 500.

Adding the military KC390 and drone programs most certainly diversifies their risk, as it adds a 3 pillar of support. Rather than just offering commercial aircraft and private jets, they added new military programs. Given the breakeven of the new KC390 is just 120 airframes, I think this will be a program that pays off quite quickly.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 46):
EMB will not go up against the "aero titans". Having let the opportunity pass while both "aero titans" are only doing minimum upgrades, EMB is certainly not going to go head to head against the "aero titans" all-new NBs in the 2020's.

I never said they would "head on". But one of the reasons both B & A have talked about upsizing their main narrowbody offerings is because they are getting very stiff competition from below with the EJets and C-Series encroaching on the 125 seat range aircraft.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 46):
EMB already has the "technical knowhow and experience". And with an EIS date of 2018 for the updated E-jets, EMB is not going to embark on an a substantially more expensive program just a few years later when the "aero titans" will trump it.

In the 10 years from 2000 to 2009, Embraer doubled in size to a $6 billion per year organization. Embraer wants to continue to grow. Definitively proclaiming that EMB won't spend the money to start to design/engineer a 6 abreast narrowbody 10 to 12 years from now is laughable.
 
LAXDESI
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 8:13 am

RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:57 pm

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 47):
Definitively proclaiming that EMB won't spend the money to start to design/engineer a 6 abreast narrowbody 10 to 12 years from now is laughable.

When they do, I hope Embraer opts to do a light 6-abreast NB family(150-200 seats) with a range of no more than 2,500nm. IMO, such an aircraft family would have unbeatable fuel per seat numbers for flights under 1,500 nm relative to NEO/MAX.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 3939
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:02 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 45):

BBD is using the competitive product from Rio Tinto/Alcan, which Airbus is also using on some of their products.
What the...?
 
Viscount724
Posts: 18846
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Embraer Partners With Alcoa For New E-JET

Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:17 pm

Quoting MoltenRock (Reply 43):
Very few E190/195 operators run a cattle operation utilizing only 29" or 30" tin cans. JetBlue (100 seats - E190) has 33" economy seats, along with 38" "More Room" seats, all with an 18.25" wide seat, as does Air Canada with their E190s.

Not for long at AC. I believe they are in process of adding one more row of seats to their E-190s (a few aircraft already completed) which will reduce pitch by a couple of inches.

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