BrusselsSouth
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W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:45 pm

Hi all,

Following a good reception of my previous transatlantic offer analysis (summer 2011), here's a new, more detailed analysis covering winter 2011/12. It's now in a PDF file because of the presentation limitations of this forum.

Here are some of the highlights:

- Airport with the largest transatlantic seats offer: London Heathrow.

- Country with the largest transatlantic seats offer: USA.

- Busiest transatlantic route: New York JFK to London Heathrow.

- Alliance with the largest transatlantic offer: Star Alliance.

- Airline with the largest transatlantic offer: British Airways.

- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

- Total weekly eastbound seats offered: 966 111.

- Total weekly eastbound flights offered: 3 580

Detailed rankings, charts, maps and trivia can be found in the analysis document:

Analysis download link (3.5 MB PDF)

Here's a simplified version of the raw data I gathered to write this analysis:

Raw data download link (400 KB PDF)

All comments and discussions in this thread are welcome.

Cheers

BrusselsSouth
 
leftyboarder
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:57 pm

Simply amazing stuff! Thanks a lot for providing these sheets, amazing to look at when bored at work!
 
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STT757
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:21 pm

The page 21 chart about EWR is missing some destinations, such as DEL.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
fun2fly
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:31 pm

Phenominal work! Welcome to my RU list.
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:26 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
The page 21 chart about EWR is missing some destinations, such as DEL.

Good catch. Hopefully there aren't too many other omissions. Do you see any ?

Regards
BrusselsSouth
 
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STT757
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:33 pm

Quoting BrusselsSouth (Reply 4):
Hopefully there aren't too many other omissions. Do you see any ?

EWR-ATH.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:09 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
EWR-ATH.

It would appear that this route isn't operated during the week considered, but thanks anyway.

Regard
BrusselsSouth
 
United1
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:24 pm

Fantastic work....

I think DLs flight ATL-JNB was the only thing that I saw missing.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:54 pm

Quoting United1 (Reply 7):
I think DLs flight ATL-JNB was the only thing that I saw missing.

You're right. Thanks for pointing it out.

Regards
BrusselsSouth
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:19 pm

I have updated the analysis document with both missing flights.

Regards
BrusselsSouth
 
WestJet747
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:36 pm

Despite the minor aforementioned omissions this is one of the best reports I've seen. Great work and I look forward to future installments!

As an aside, I would enjoy seeing some sort of graphical representation of time series data for the week in question. It would be very interesting to see the variance in seat/flight offerings over the past, say, 5 years.

Again, well done!
Flying refined.
 
toobz
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:40 pm

wow
i thought DL was top dog across the Atlantic...when did BA overtake DL?
 
vadheim
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:48 pm

EWR - OSL - EWR
CO 038/039 is daily and not 5 weekly.
 
GRUIAD
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:48 pm

This analysis is superb!! So fun to look at

The week of 21 - 27 November includes the Thanksgiving holiday. While most flights operate on Thanksgiving Day, some airlines do cancel services on this day due to lower loads. Here is sample of November 24th cancellations versus November 17th schedule:

BA: JFK-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: EWR-LHR (3x frequency cxlld)
AF: JFK-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: BOS-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
DL: DTW-AMS (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: EWR-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: IAD-FRA (1x frequncy cxlld)
BA: IAD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: JFK-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: ORD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: IAD-LHR (2x frequency cxlld)
UA; ORD-LHR (2x frequency cxlld)
AA: BOS-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: DFW-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: EWR-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: IAH-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: IAH-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: JFK-LCY (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: LAX-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
IB: MIA-MAD (1x frequency cxlld)
DL: MSP-AMS (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: ORD-FRA (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: ORD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: PHL-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: SFO-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AF: YUL-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
AC: YYZ-FRA (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: IAD-CDG (2x frequency cxlld)
BA: ATL-LHR
AF: BOS-CDG
LH: BOS-MUC
LX: BOS-ZRH
US: CLT-FCO
US: CLT-FRA
US: CLT-LGW
LH: CLT-MUC
DL: CVG-CDG
BA: DEN-LHR
BA: DFW-LHR
AF: DTW-CDG
CO: EWR-ARN
CO: EWR-BCN
CO: EWR-BFS
CO: EWR-BHX
CO: EWR-BRU
CO: EWR-CPH
CO: EWR-EDI
CO: EWR-FCO
CO: EWR-FRA
CO: EWR-GVA
CO: EWR HAM
CO: EWR-MAD
CO: EWR-MUC
LH: EWR-MUC
CO: EWR-MXP
CO: EWR-OSL
CO: EWR-SNN
CO: EWR-STR
LX: EWR-ZRH
UA: EWR-ZRH
CO: IAD-AMS
UA: IAD-DME
UA: IAD-GVA
UA: IAD-MAD
UA: IAD-MUC
UA: IAD-ZRH
CO: IAH-AMS
AF: IAH-CDG
CO: IAH-CDG
CO: IAH-FRA
DL: JFK-BRU
AA: JFK-ZRH
UA: LAX-LHR
DL: MEM-AMS
UA: ORD-AMS
UA: ORD-BRU
SK: ORD-CPH
LH: ORD-MUC
LO: ORD-WAW
US: PHL-AMS
US: PHL-BRU
US: PHL-CDG
US: PHL-DUB
US: PHL-FCO
US: PHL-FRA
US: PHL-LHR
US: PHL-LHR
US: PHL-MAD
US: PHL-MAN
US: PHL-MUC
US: PHL-ZRH
BA: PHX-LHR
AA: RDU-LHR
BA: SAN-LHR
UA: SFO-FRA
LH: SFO-MUC
LX: SFO-ZRH
 
EricR
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:17 pm

This is a fantastic analysis. Thank you.

This helps clarify fact verus perception on everything from alliance share to premium seats offered in a particular market. How long did it take you to complete this analysis?
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:53 am

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 13):
The week of 21 - 27 November includes the Thanksgiving holiday. While most flights operate on Thanksgiving Day, some airlines do cancel services on this day due to lower loads. Here is sample of November 24th cancellations versus November 17th schedule:

Believe it or not, when I picked the random week (back in October), I totally forgot about thanksgiving. While the analysis remains valid with respect to its assumptions, it would have been best to gather the data for the following week as to have a more standard picture. I wonder whether the offer for a "normal" week exceeds the one million weekly seats (one-way) mark...

Quoting vadheim (Reply 12):
EWR - OSL - EWR
CO 038/039 is daily and not 5 weekly.

Thanks for pointing that out. I had a look at CO's PDF timetable and it seems that flight operates only 5 weekly during the thanksgiving week (daily for other weeks). So while the analysis remains correct, the same remark as above applies.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 10):
As an aside, I would enjoy seeing some sort of graphical representation of time series data for the week in question. It would be very interesting to see the variance in seat/flight offerings over the past, say, 5 years.

This is something I too would enjoy, but I fear it goes beyond the scope of a simple, fun, free analysis.

Thank you all for your remarks.

Regards
BrusselsSouth
 
goldorak
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:28 am

Simply amazing !!!  
I was particularly impressed about the rank of France-FDF/PTP routes : "Also note the impressive 5th and 7th place of the Fort de France and Pointe à Pitre to Paris Orly routes, making those as busy as the New York Kennedy to Paris CDG route."
I knew the traffic was huge but not at that point.
Also, I think the Corsair flight ORY-YUL is missing in the ORY analysis
Thank you so much for this great great work   
 
BNAOWB
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:30 pm

Incredibly well done! An absolutely fascinating analysis! Thank you very much for posting this.

A few observations.....
1) Brazil has 50.4% of South America's transatlantic seats.

2) Mexico plus Panama/El Salvador/Costa Rica has only 23.84% of the "Central America" transatlantic seats. So, Caribbean island destinations dominate this category with the remaining 76.16%. Panama/El Salvador/Costa Rica (without Mexico) constitute only 1.2% of this category.

In the coming years, it will be interesting to see whether flights to Africa and the Gulf have significant gains in their respective shares of the overall transatlantic market.
 
Rafabozzolla
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:02 pm

Very good analysis,

However I do have one remark... The Fun Facts table lists the longest Central America-Europe flight as Guyaquil-Amsterdam. Ecuador cannot, under no circumstances, be considered Central America.

It is also curious (almost uncanny) not to see South Africa mentioned in the busiest countries table.

[Edited 2011-11-22 15:36:06]
 
PITrules
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:02 am

Considering that LHR is by far the largest trans-Atlantic European gateway, it is interesting that CDG, FRA, and AMS all serve at least twice as many South American destinations than LHR and LGW combined. I would have expected this from MAD and LIS, but perhaps not the others.
FLYi
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:47 am

Quoting goldorak (Reply 16):
Also, I think the Corsair flight ORY-YUL is missing in the ORY analysis

This is only a seasonal (summer) service according to Corsairfly's web site. However, I'll be happy to add it in the document if you can provide an alternative source showing that it operates during the winter.

Quoting rafabozzolla (Reply 18):
The Fun Facts table lists the longest Central America-Europe flight as Guyaquil-Amsterdam. Ecuador cannot, under no circumstances, be considered Central America.

Oops, for some reason, it seems I associated Ecuador with Central America in my database. Thank you for catching this, it's now corrected.

Quoting rafabozzolla (Reply 18):
It is also curious (almost uncanny) not to see South Africa mentioned in the busiest countries table

South Africa appeared at the very bottom of the list after the addition of ATL-JNB. Thank you anyway for mentioning this.

Quoting EricR (Reply 14):
How long did it take you to complete this analysis?

Mmmmh, you don't really want to know  

The link in the OP now points to revision 3 of the analysis document, that includes the following corrections:

- DL's ATL-JNB flight (incidentally, becomes longest North America-Africa flight).
- CO's EWR-DEL flight.
- Air Europa (UX): Unaffiliated -> SkyTeam.
- Ecuador: Central America -> South America (including correction for shortest/longest flights).

Thank you all for your suggestions, remarks and kind comments. Keep them coming...

Regards
BrusselsSouth
 
gkirk
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:11 am

Quoting BrusselsSouth (Thread starter):
- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:21 pm

Nice work!

One other point is that EK is shifting one of it's IAH flights to DFW February 5.
It is what it is...
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:30 pm

Fantastic Job.

All these years later...JFK-LHR is still where it is at.

Ironically, dominance of this route started when Ocean Liners' most important route was Southhampton to Manhattan.

And just like now, the British liners had the largest market share on the route.
 
jfk777
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:55 pm

Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest
Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest
Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Quoting BrusselsSouth (Thread starter):
- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

The difference between the number of flights weekly by a 767 is only about 10% more then a 777. The number of seats by 777 weekly is more then 767's.
 
rheinwaldner
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:04 pm

Good analysis! Thanks for publishing it!
 
UAL777UK
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:19 pm

Absolutely brilliant report........you clearly have put hours of work into it, very well done.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest

looks like the 777 could be close to taking top spot.
 
Ychocky
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Dec 05, 2011 2:55 pm

This is delicious.

Nice work, good presentation.
 
Delta763
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:03 pm

I just wasted a whole day at work absorbing this. Great work!
 
bananaboy
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:19 am

Amazing work - thank you.

Were Monarch Airlines not operating any transatlantic flights during the week evaluated? Not that it would make much difference to the figures overall - was just curious really.

Anyway, thanks again for an interesting read.

Mark
All my life, I've been kissing, your top lip 'cause your bottom one's missing
 
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seabosdca
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:18 pm

One million seats per week across the Atlantic.

I knew it was a high-volume market, but that's just amazing.
 
hooverman
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Wed Dec 07, 2011 8:01 pm

Thanks for your analysis. Can't imagine the time it cost you.
Looks like the middle eastern carriers are moving in fast and furious.

Quoting Delta763 (Reply 28):
I just wasted a whole day at work absorbing this. Great work!

Me too  
 
BrusselsSouth
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RE: W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis

Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:46 am

Really good to read all the positive feedback, thank you all.

Quoting bananaboy (Reply 29):
Were Monarch Airlines not operating any transatlantic flights during the week evaluated? Not that it would make much difference to the figures overall - was just curious really.

Apparently, no, according to their official schedule search engine (http://www.monarch.co.uk/timetable/flights), but I'll gladly accept any correction. Note that this page says "scheduled flights" and could therefore omit some charter flights. The dropdown list of destinations includes Orlando Sanford but no flights were showing for the week at hand. The only transatlantic scheduled flight I found was 1 weekly LGW-Tobago service, but this didn't operate that week.

Regards
BrusselsSouth

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