Gonzalo
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Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 11:33 am

Just hours ago we lost Astraeus. Now we have T. Cook in bad shape, and a justified uncertainty about the behavior of the travelers in the next months, considering the current economy in a significant number of European countries.
To worsen the situation, apparently the banks across Europe are very reluctant to give money to anybody unless you have a mine gold to warrant the loans, something that the small airlines don't have, and the other possible savior ( governments ) across the continent are struggling with their own financial crisis ( as part of the problem or trying to solve the problem, but every country in the continent is talking about crisis ).

Will the smallest airlines survive to this cocktail or is a big crunch in this market around the corner ?

Your bets ?

Rgds.

G.
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anstar
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 11:44 am

Amsterdam Airlines also went bust a week or so ago.
 
CPHFF
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:23 pm

My bet is on Cimber/Sterling. A true money pit.
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by738
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:36 pm

Manx2
Eastern
Spanair
Iceland Express
Cyprus Airways
Air Malta
Air Berlin
Adria

Would be on my list....
 
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eurowings
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:59 pm

Quoting BY738 (Reply 3):

Manx2
Eastern
Spanair
Iceland Express
Cyprus Airways
Air Malta
Air Berlin
Adria

Some of those are suitable candidates (especially Iceland Express) however I would question Manx2 as they operate some very niche routes to/from IOM, where the economy seems reasonably strong. They are essentially a ticketing agent for contracted ACMI providers too. Eastern has many niche routes, with a focus on North Sea oil business traffic. Adria is owned by the Government of Slovenia.

Air Baltic were reportedly in financial trouble.

[Edited 2011-11-23 11:04:59]
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Eirules
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:17 pm

Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up
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eurowings
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:27 pm

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):
Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up

I believe they've had some significant financial problems of late, however as Germany's 2nd largest airline (so not really small) and future member of Oneworld, I reckon they should be OK, although I don't know a great deal about the state of the company.

[Edited 2011-11-23 11:28:26]
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Viscount724
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:27 pm

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):
Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up

Mexicana joined Oneworld 9 months before they went bust and suspended service.
 
f4f3a
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:44 pm

I think Thomas cook should survive . They owe too much
Money about 1 billion euros or so. They also have been going the longest.
Since 1880s as a company.

I think that monarch are in serious trouble ATM . Would be shme to see them go .
What about Titan are they still going?
 
anstar
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:02 pm

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):
Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up

Hello - Kingfisher?

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 8):
I think Thomas cook should survive . They owe too much
Money about 1 billion euros or so. They also have been going the longest.
Since 1880s as a company.

Length of service means nothing.... Nor does the amount of money they owe mean that the more they owe they should stay in business... its the opposite - the more they owe the more likely they are to disappear.
 
irshava
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:15 pm

Quoting CPHFF (Reply 2):
My bet is on Cimber/Sterling. A true money pit.

Agreed.

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):

Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up

The founder of Air Berlin resigned a few months ago and its been reportedly not doing as good.

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 4):
Air Baltic were reportedly in financial trouble.

Correct.

My personal opinion:

I think that some carriers in Italy are going to vanish as Alitalia owns a lot of the Italian market.

Also BH Airlines (based in Sarajevo)
+ JAT
+ some small Turkish carriers
+ recently opened Slovakian Airlines
+ recently opened Samair (Hungary)
..... a lot more...
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GIANCAVIA
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:38 pm

Air Malta? Why so...

Irshava there is not much left to dissapear in Italy. Meridiana/Eurofly/Air Italy all one airline now.. Alitalia/Airone/volareweb all one.. Dolimiti are pretty much Lufthansa.

I think Blue Panorama, Windjet and NEOS are all thats left.. besides a few really small airlines.
 
LOWS
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:31 am

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 8):

I think Thomas cook should survive . They owe too much
Money about 1 billion euros or so. They also have been going the longest.
Since 1880s as a company.

And US banking house Lehman Brothers was in business since the 1860s...but they didn't get bailed out during the financial crisis. History with these things is usually not indicative. TC could go just as easily.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 5:36 am

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 11):
I think Blue Panorama, Windjet and NEOS are all thats left.

I can see a Meridiana & Windjet merger somewhere down the line.
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Jambost
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:14 am

Anyone know how LS are doing? They seem to have done well so far through the crisis.
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lightsaber
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:53 am

Does anyone have numbers (profit/loss)? Are any missing fuel payments a la IT?

I do not wish any airline to fail...

Quoting anstar (Reply 9):
Hello - Kingfisher?
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
Mexicana joined Oneworld 9 months before they went bust and suspended service.

Yea... I'm not seeing a correlation with Oneworld membership and longevity. At least not a positive correlation   .

Lightsaber
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LTU330
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:54 am

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):
Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one? I couldnt see OneWorld going to the bother of accepting someone who is about to go belly-up

I agree. Air Berlin have restructured and implemented a cost saving scheme that will mean 500 Million Euros are saved in 2012 and 1Billion Euros in 2013 just from the streamlining of the fleet and deferral of planned deliveries. The biggest problem that Air Berlin had was too many unprofitable routes, especially from the smaller regional airports within Germany. The German Tax system is not exactly helping any airline within or wanting to fly to Germany at this time, but by eliminating routes from the smaller airports the fleet can be reduced by around 20 frames. Next year at least 13 Boeing 737NG aircraft are being returned to the lessor. These aircraft entered the fleet when leasing costs were extremely high. By returning these aircraft and operating a fleet with lower leasing costs, and a lower age (reduced maintenance costs) the future for Air Berlin seems a lot better than it did earlier this year.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:27 am

Yes, the fight is not yet lost for Air Berlin, but also not yet won. If the criminal insider attacks of the rating+investing mafia now also confronts Germany directly since yesterday, predictions are impossible currently.
 
DutchBoeing
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:46 am

Hi,

This is a really interesting post. I've been wanting to start a similar one myself. As we book a lot of tickets / charters, it is very important for us to know how smaller airlines are doing. Who will survive this coming cruel winter? Does anybody have more info on the position of:

* OLT(JetAir) (they seem to be keeping the F100 / S2000 after all - they give us quotes for them)
* Trade Air (2 x F100 from Croatia)
* CCA (B733/4 ex PRG)
* AirExplore (B733/4 ex BTS)
* AIS Airlines (2 x JS32 ex LEY)
* Enter Air (B737 ex Poland)
* Travel Service (B737 ex CZ)
* Monarch (somebody mentioned them, are they not doing ok?)

Somebody also mentioned Eastern. That surprises me. Is Eastern really in problems? Is Flybe perhaps killing them? Thanks for your input!

Regards,


DB
 
konrad
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:58 am

OLT(JetAir) seems to be an odd customer with F100 / S2000/ ATR42 / Do328 and J41 fleet  Wow! Rumors persist that they are looking for subsidized and/or niche routes to stay in the game.

If the financial crisis hits Poland hard LOT will be on this list in a manner of weeks. Cash is low, planes and other property (real estate) is being sold and leased back. This has been going on for years, 2012 might be the moment of truth.
 
GIANCAVIA
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:50 pm

Quoting DutchBoeing (Reply 18):
* Monarch (somebody mentioned them, are they not doing ok?)

Monarch wont be dissapearing.
 
vv701
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:03 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 9):
Nor does the amount of money they owe mean that the more they owe they should stay in business... its the opposite - the more they owe the more likely they are to disappear.

This depends on the lenders and how much they have lent.

Say a bank has already lent £1 billion. Now TCX need another £100 million. The bank will look very carefully at the recovery plan and IF - repeat IF - it looks achievable will find the £100 million in preference to the writing off the £1 billion.

On the other hand if a lender has no exposure then it is very unlikely he will want to even glance at any recovery proposal.

So current significat lenders do have a vested interest in keeping TCX in business.
 
fcogafa
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:24 pm

Small airlines have been coming and going for years, nothing new there. Several years ago when the 'recession' started there were dire predictions of mass airline bankruptcies, especially among the locos, which never really happened except for a few smaller airlines like Skyeurope, Globespan etc

Of course one of the main predictors of these failures was Mr Ryanair so maybe we shouldn't be surprised that it didn't actually happen!

[Edited 2011-11-24 05:37:02]
 
Candid76
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:56 pm

Quoting DutchBoeing (Reply 18):
Somebody also mentioned Eastern. That surprises me. Is Eastern really in problems? Is Flybe perhaps killing them? Thanks for your input!

Somebody thought of a random list of airlines and posted them. Eastern only compete on a couple of routes with BE and bmi regional, and in any case a large part of their business is charter not just scheduled services. You will find that many airlines that have got into trouble are only really active in one market segment (eggs in one basket as they say).
 
mozart
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:09 pm

Why Spanair? Aren't they out of the problem zone with cash injection from Catalan government last year and a stable set of owners?

LOT - yes, they've rumoured since some time to have problems.

Others that I see:

TAP
Malev

And one that isn't exactly small but I wouldn't be surprised if in the long run they only lived on thanks to state subsidies (if they are allowed to receive them): Air France. Not a lot of good news from them and with structural problems that will make the future a little difficult.

Also, would be dead if it weren't saved by Lufthansa: Austrian.
 
babybus
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:24 pm

Quoting EIRules (Reply 5):
Air Berlin? This not a bit of a questionable one?

Does anyone know of anyone who has actually flown Air Berlin? Last time I saw them in Rome they had virtually an empty aircraft. I wouldn't rule out Air Berlin as having problems, if not now in the near future.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 22):
Small airlines have been coming and going for years, nothing new there.

That's very true. I wanted to travel with Excalibur Airways from Gatwick but they went bust before I had time to book. We don't even have pics in the database here such was their short life.

Remember Dan-Air? Big airline, very successful, gone. It can happen to anyone.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
LOWS
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 5:28 pm

Quoting mozart (Reply 24):
Others that I see:

TAP

Probably soon to be acquired by LH (I hope) and for sale as part of the EU Bailout of Portugal.

Quoting mozart (Reply 24):
Also, would be dead if it weren't saved by Lufthansa: Austrian.

Gott sei dank, nicht!

But I also cannot imagine them collapsing if the LH didn't buy them. No one else flies internal fights, they are a big link to the world for us, and it was a postwar prestige thing.
 
Humberside
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:12 pm

Quoting BY738 (Reply 3):
Manx2
Eastern

Would be on my list....

And what financial information do you have to be base your opinion on for these two privately owned businesses?

I don't follow Manx2 closely, but I can say that this year Eastern have been adding ERJ-145's to their fleet, and that they have been recruiting recently to deal with increased workload. Not the sign of a strugling business. While some routes have been pruned, other have been added or enhanced, which is what T3 has always done with it's network

[Edited 2011-11-24 10:15:38]
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vv701
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:08 pm

Quoting Babybus (Reply 25):
I wanted to travel with Excalibur Airways from Gatwick but they went bust before I had time to book. We don't even have pics in the database here such was their short life.

Not so. There are plenty. Here are photos of 2 of their 6 UK registered aircraft. If you search the data base you will find amothyer three. Only one is not represented:

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © XiaoYuEr
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Aidan Williamson

 
by738
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:25 pm

Quoting Humberside (Reply 27):
And what financial information do you have to be base your opinion on for these two privately owned businesses?

Like anyone is going to be able to produce "financial information". The thread was who thinks what, and I gave my thoughts. Because they are private business- does that mean they are immune ? If you think aquiring the least fuel efficient second hand Emb jets is the the cure against financial failure, you may wish to revisit this post in a few years time.
 
tonymctigue
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:40 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 28):
I don't follow Manx2 closely

I wouldn't hold my breadth on Manx2. If you recall, they had a fatal accident at ORK less than a year ago with the full accident investigation still pending. Manx2 are denying they're liable because as someone pointed out, they're only a "virtual airline" as they describe themselves. There is a possible European high court case going to be brought by the victims of the accident that even if Manx2 win that case and are not liable are surely still going to suffer irreparable damage as a brand.

Seeing as it is linked with this same topic, I'm sure that we are bound to see a new wave of mergers if the financial crisis persists for a prolonged period. Recent figures show a shocking 10% drop in passengers at DUB year on year for October. That must be hurting EI who've already had several waves of cost-cutting sparking numerous threats of industrial unrest. Rumours have been flying around on he Irish thread about various mergers and take-over bids from other airlines groups including BA (since denied), EK, EY and UA. What do those of you who are from outside Ireland reckon about the prospects for EI to attract a takeover bid in the event things continue as they are? We've already FR drastically reduce services from Ireland from SNN and DUB (although they announced new services from NOC only this week, ironically the first expansion by FR from Ireland in quite some time).
Airports: SNN GWY NOC DUB ORK BOS EWR JFK ORD MCI BOI SEA LHR STN CDG LYS FAO GVA HKG MEL ADL HBA
 
GIANCAVIA
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:17 pm

When one manx related airline dissapears another shall pop up.   How can manx2 be at fault for the crash? Not their aircraft or crew... anyways Q manx3.

I expect Aer Arann to dissapear.. either swallowed up as Aer Lingus or just dissapear due to the stupidity of destroying its profitable routes to Luton.
 
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eurowings
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:35 pm

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 30):
I wouldn't hold my breadth on Manx2. If you recall, they had a fatal accident at ORK less than a year ago with the full accident investigation still pending. Manx2 are denying they're liable because as someone pointed out, they're only a "virtual airline" as they describe themselves. There is a possible European high court case going to be brought by the victims of the accident that even if Manx2 win that case and are not liable are surely still going to suffer irreparable damage as a brand.

They are a virtual airline, essentially just a ticketing agent. When you book a flight with them, the website makes clear which airline your flight is operated by. The flight that sadly crashed in ORK was operated by an airline called Flightline BCN, the passengers were told when booking. Manx2 terminated their contract with that provider.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 25):
Does anyone know of anyone who has actually flown Air Berlin? Last time I saw them in Rome they had virtually an empty aircraft. I wouldn't rule out Air Berlin as having problems, if not now in the near future.

Errr, yes I have flown with Air Berlin quite a number of times. There are numerous trip reports on the appropriate section of this site. They carried almost 34 million passengers last year, making them the 6th largest passenger airline in Europe by that measurement! So, it would be a large airline failure if it happened, which doesn't really fit in with the likes of other airlines discussed on this thread!

They don't have a strong UK presence anymore, but they have large bases in Germany and a hub in Spain.

[Edited 2011-11-24 13:48:23]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
Humberside
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:28 pm

Quoting BY738 (Reply 29):
The thread was who thinks what, and I gave my thoughts.

It might have been an idea to explain why. Your post was not exactly a nice one for any T3 or Manx2 employee to read. This thread isn't just about airlines - there are people who work for them, who depend on the airlines to pay them so they in turn can pay their bills. If we are going to speculate on airline's futures surely the least we can do is have an informed debate based on facts and factual events

Quoting BY738 (Reply 29):
Because they are private business- does that mean they are immune ?

Not at all, but at least with plc's/state owned companies we have easily available financial information to come to a somewhat informed judgement. Based on press reports I could understand why you listed the other airlines you did

Quoting BY738 (Reply 29):
Like anyone is going to be able to produce "financial information".

After a bit of searching I've actually found some for 2010 for Eastern Airways (UK). And it does not paint a picture of an airline about to imminetly go out of business
http://www.levelbusiness.com/doc/company/uk/03468489

Average yields rose 6% in 2010 compared to 2009, average load factors also increased
Charter and leasing accounted for 42% of turnover - i.e. not dependent totally on scheduled services
2010 for the first year of a long term contract with Bristow Helicopters
Operating profit of £2.26 million
Profit on ordinary activities after tax of £883,000
£5.329 million cash 'at bank and in hand'
£6.68 million net assets
Paid off £1.353 million of debt this year
Agreed a revised debt repayment profile in September 2011
Trading and cash flow forecasts indicate debt facilities sufficient until August 2012, when new facilities will be put in place (report reads like this should be a routine matter)

And a quick glance through the Eastern Airways (Europe) accounts (owners of Eastern Airways UK) shows an even better financial position.

Clearly the above is now nearly a year old. However as off 31st December 2010 Eastern Airways were a profitable company, although profits declined from 2009, partly due to the Icelandic Ash Cloud, with substantial cash reserves. Yields have increased, and the airline has been able to repay a significant amount of debt. In addition it has debt facilities in place until at least next Summer

To me Eastern Airways seems like a profitable business, that while suffering from the economic climate, is performing quite well

Would you like to review your prediction in light of this financial information?
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tonymctigue
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:49 pm

Quoting Giancavia (Reply 31):
I expect Aer Arann to dissapear.. either swallowed up as Aer Lingus or just dissapear due to the stupidity of destroying its profitable routes to Luton.

No doubt, the RE brand will eventually disappear but the ownership structure is far from written in stone. The public service obligation subsidies are all but gone. The "temporary suspension" of all services from GWY and SXL mean that there are very few services that actually operate under the RE brand. Most of their flights from DUB, ORK and SNN operate under the EIR brand with RE aircraft painted in EI colours. It remains to be seen if the SEN experiments works out. I'm not too up on the plans for SEN but from what I gather, they're aiming for a LCY 2.0 targeting high frequency, high yield business traffifc using smaller aircraft. An airline named after a tiny indescript island off the coast of Galway seems a bizzare fit so no doubt there will be a name change. They've already made a bizzare name change to Aer Arann Regional and they've changed their livery from the "celtic swirls" to a kind of half arsed green and white livery that kind of looks a bit like someone tried to paint the aircraft in EI colours but rand out of green paint. I cannot see EI wanting to buy out RE.

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 32):
They are a virtual airline, essentially just a ticketing agent. When you book a flight with them, the website makes clear which airline your flight is operated by. The flight that sadly crashed in ORK was operated by an airline called Flightline BCN, the passengers were told when booking. Manx2 terminated their contract with that provider.

I know they're not really responsible for an aircraft they they neither own or operate. They're no more liable than a travel agent who you booked you flight through. The fact is though that you can make a legimitate argument that if you book a ticket with a company like Manx2, then you're contract is with them. The fact that they choose to outsource the operation of that flight is irrelevant. You're contract is still with Manx2 and not with some random aircraft leasing company whom you've probably never heard of. Same as you buy any goods in your local store. You're contract is with the store. Not the company who made the goods. I know it probably says in the terms and conditions that this is the case but the simple fact is, if this does go to the European high court, then its going to attract alot of attention as it will be the first such case in Europe and even if the judgment comes out in favour of Manx2, they are unlikely to survive the bd publicity the court case will bring upon them.
Airports: SNN GWY NOC DUB ORK BOS EWR JFK ORD MCI BOI SEA LHR STN CDG LYS FAO GVA HKG MEL ADL HBA
 
Humberside
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:55 pm

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 34):
if this does go to the European high court

I've not followed the ins and outs but Manx 2 surely falls under the Isle of Man, which is not an EU member and therefore how can the European High Court get involved?
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:56 pm

Quoting DutchBoeing (Reply 18):
Somebody also mentioned Eastern. That surprises me. Is Eastern really in problems? Is Flybe perhaps killing them? Thanks for your input!
Quoting Humberside (Reply 27):
I don't follow Manx2 closely, but I can say that this year Eastern have been adding ERJ-145's to their fleet, and that they have been recruiting recently to deal with increased workload. Not the sign of a strugling business. While some routes have been pruned, other have been added or enhanced, which is what T3 has always done with it's network

An important factor to note with Eastern was their take-over of Air Southwest. They may have 'paid' a couple of million for them, but for that they got 3 owned Dash 8s, 4 pairs of LGW slots, and £2 million in up front ticket sales, plus other goodies which they promptly cashed in.


Dan  
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by738
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:56 pm

Quoting Humberside (Reply 33):
Would you like to review your prediction in light of this financial information?

No. Year old data, given the last 6 months financial situation, means nothing. Published financial data for private companies only tells you what they want you to hear.

Quoting Humberside (Reply 33):
Your post was not exactly a nice one for any T3 or Manx2 employee to read

But the other airlines listed are fair game ? You really must have led a sheltered life. Personal predictions on an amateur site compares in no way to press scare mongering about groups such as Thomas Cook.
You obviously have a bee in your bonnet regarding my own personal views so ill leave it there.
 
by738
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:58 pm

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 34):
Manx2, they are unlikely to survive

Indeed. But watch you dont frighten the employees.
 
Humberside
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:46 pm

Quoting BY738 (Reply 37):
Year old data, given the last 6 months financial situation, means nothing.

Maybe, Maybe not, with some of the data. It's impossible to know what the current finances are. But the long term contract with Bristow and the revised debt profile until next year are hardly irrelevant

Quoting BY738 (Reply 37):
Published financial data for private companies only tells you what they want you to hear.

Maybe it does not tell absolutely everything, but what I found were the audited accounts submitted to Companies House. There are certain things that have to be in there

Quoting BY738 (Reply 37):
But the other airlines listed are fair game ?

It is well known that the other airlines you listed are suffering varying degrees of financial difficulties

Quoting BY738 (Reply 37):
Personal predictions on an amateur site compares in no way to press scare mongering about groups such as Thomas Cook.

No, but still people who work in the aviation industry read this site

Quoting BY738 (Reply 37):
You obviously have a bee in your bonnet regarding my own personal views so ill leave it there

I do because you have not explained why you have your opinion. You've not produced any factual or subjective claims to support your opinion

Anyway I'm sure others can read through this thread and the links to the accounts I posted and make their own minds up
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tonymctigue
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:52 pm

Quoting Humberside (Reply 35):
I've not followed the ins and outs but Manx 2 surely falls under the Isle of Man, which is not an EU member and therefore how can the European High Court get involved?

Quite true. All I know is there were alot of representations made on behalf of the families of the victims about various courses of legal action. The European high court was mentioned in one of them. Perhaps the European high court would be able to rule seeing as it was a flight operating from one European country to another. If not then surely the Irish or British courts would have juristriction. I don't think it really matters where (if at all) any legal battle takes place. It will result in alot of negative publicity for Manx2 which it unlikely to end well.
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:54 pm

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 30):
Rumours have been flying around on he Irish thread about various mergers and take-over bids from other airlines groups including BA (since denied), EK, EY and UA. What do those of you who are from outside Ireland reckon about the prospects for EI to attract a takeover bid in the event things continue as they are?

Of the airlines you mentioned, BA is the the only airline that can acquire EI entirely. The others can only buy 25%. BA turned down a deal due to EI's hefty pension debt, and EY has done the same thing. However, I could see IAG reconsidering if EI liquidates or its stock value drops tremendously.

Quoting mozart (Reply 24):
Others that I see:

TAP
Malev

BA's Willie Walsh stated that there are 12 candidates they have for merger. TAP is well known to be one of them, but I wonder if MA is as well.
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eurowings
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 12:07 am

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 40):
It will result in alot of negative publicity for Manx2 which it unlikely to end well.

If this legal battle does occur (and it creates much negative publicity), then I could perhaps see Manx2 following what Helios and Valujet did - an entire rebrand as 'new airline'.
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LX138
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 12:10 am

I'm surprised Spanair are still around - they have been burning cash for years!

On the Thomas Cook topic, I think there is probably an unfortunate piece of press going around and its spread to become a story thats more negative than it ought to be. Forward bookings would be at their lowest at this time of the year yet they still have to operate a full schedule and cover their costs - so during these quiet months airlines have to be lean. The words 'Thomas Cook' and 'talking to bank' spread like wildfire and now people think they are going under! As one of the largest leisure travel groups in the world I would hardly call them small either.

What about GR? I know they are subsidised but surely they must be losing money?
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Gonzalo
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 1:21 am

Quoting tonymctigue (Reply 34):
The fact that they choose to outsource the operation of that flight is irrelevant. You're contract is still with Manx2 and not with some random aircraft leasing company

Agreed, if you Google "Manx2 Airline", the link to the Irishtimes page with the Metroliner belly up and burned in Cork is on the top, so the bad publicity is over the Manx2 brand, not the leasing company.

Quoting LX138 (Reply 43):
As one of the largest leisure travel groups in the world I would hardly call them small either

Probably is a little unfair to call them "small"... but they're not British Airways or KLM, maybe I could use "small and medium size carriers" in my original post, but I guess is too late now  

Rgds.

G.

[Edited 2011-11-24 17:24:58]
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bennett123
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:01 am

Whilst technically Manx2 may only be a ticketing agent, that is not the impression given.

There marketing material looks like an airline, (perhaps not all the small print).

When you go to Gloucester Airport, then it is Manx2 at heck in. It is only when the flight arrives that the situation becomes clearer.

IMO, it is reasonable that if you take customers money that you are responsible for the service provided. Playing at being an airline, then would something goes wrong saying "we're only an agent is not on". Regardless of the legal niceities, Manx2 are likely to look like a sham if this comes to court.
 
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eurowings
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:13 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 45):
IMO, it is reasonable that if you take customers money that you are responsible for the service provided. Playing at being an airline, then would something goes wrong saying "we're only an agent is not on". Regardless of the legal niceities, Manx2 are likely to look like a sham if this comes to court.

I understand that point of view, but your operating carrier for Manx2 is not hidden. When you book a flight it quite clearly states the airline (now VanAir Europe or Links Air) who is operating the flight. Now, these are very small airlines and aren't well known at all, but you can't deny that the information is given.

Take the Colgan Air accident in the US as a recent example, the flight was a Continental Airlines flight (with their livery) operated by Colgan Air. Everyone booked through Continental, they took their money, but who was the operating carrier under scrutiny?

In any case, I realise that a legal challenge will damage the Manx2 brand, but Fllightline BCN is still operating.
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flyingalex
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:17 am

Quoting Babybus (Reply 25):
Does anyone know of anyone who has actually flown Air Berlin? Last time I saw them in Rome they had virtually an empty aircraft. I wouldn't rule out Air Berlin as having problems, if not now in the near future.

I've flown them several times, including to LAX! On all flights the load factor was OK, but I was a little concerned about the yields. In every case, I was only on the aircraft because it was a cheap option to get a one-way flight. AB does not really have a problem attracting passengers, they have a problem extracting a profitable fare out of those pax.

Quoting lows (Reply 26):
But I also cannot imagine them collapsing if the LH didn't buy them. No one else flies internal fights, they are a big link to the world for us, and it was a postwar prestige thing.

People couldn't imagine Sabena or Swissair collapsing, but look what happened there...

I'm sure there would have been some sort of reincarnation of Austrian, with a much smaller network and fleet.

As for the domestic routes - I'm sure Niki would have been happy to step in, or perhaps something like People's Viennaline would have been founded earlier.
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AirbusA6
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 11:00 am

The Thomas Cook brand name is iconic and will live on in some form. As for the current company and airline(s), well that's a completely different matter...
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sandyb123
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RE: Small European Carriers On The Brink Of Abyss?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:21 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 8):
What about Titan are they still going?

Yes they are but for how long!? They operate in a very similar market that Astreaus did and the problem is that the Market has dissapeared (leisure travel charter).

They do group VIP travel and have acquired new aircraft recently including a 767.

Time will tell.

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