JETPILOT
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:14 am

How many planes are we talking about being scrapped. Thousands? What's going to replace them. CRJ700/900/1000 and the like?

http://news.yahoo.com/airlines-cut-s...ts-fuel-prices-soar-161057500.html

[Edited 2011-11-25 16:17:38]

[Edited 2011-11-25 16:20:42]
 
queb
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:26 am

Quoting jetpilot (Thread starter):
What's going to replace them. CRJ700/900/1000

...and ATR42/72, Q400, E-Jets, MRJ, SSJ100.
 
JETPILOT
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:31 am

They are getting rid of the turboprops too.
 
irshava
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:47 am

Regional Props are the way to go... at least in Europe....
“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
 
JoeCanuck
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:53 am

The under 70 seat segment will probably mostly go to the big T-Props by the end of the decade....perhaps even under 90 if BBD and ATR go ahead with their long awaited 90 seaters.

The next gen jets coming out will be significantly more efficient than todays models but I reckon we've seen our last new under 70 seat jet.
What the...?
 
starrion
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:59 am

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

I would think the pricing would allow someone to get larger aircraft than they could otherwise afford.

And private aircraft have no where near the cycles that would cause concern for a buyer....
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lightsaber
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:48 am

It won't change the conclusion, but the OP link example has the CR2 buring more fuel than I believe it will for a 500 mile journey (19gal/pax*50pax)=950 gallons. While the MD-90 is at 1200 gallons for the same flight. If my memory serves, the CR2 is more like 13gal/pax for a 500 mile journey. Using 2900 lbm/hr which is ~426 gal/hr. Both end up at approximately 650 to 700 gallons for a 500nm flight (vs 950 if it is 19 gal per pax for 500 miles).

CRJ200 Fuel Burn (by TechSpec Oct 27 2008 in Tech Ops)

I'm personally surprised 50 seat RJs have survived this long. The economics haven't been there for years. This is from someone who *loved* CO's ERJ-135s.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
The next gen jets coming out will be significantly more efficient than todays models but I reckon we've seen our last new under 70 seat jet.

I agree. While I'm excited for the GTF, I wonder what today's fuel prices are doing to the business case of the MRJ.  
Quoting starrion (Reply 5):

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

At what price? I'm sure CO and AA would love to sell their parked E135s. But at this point, it could be cheaper to pay the lease and return them to the financing company. Until a few years ago, I'm sure they were worth more as parts for the E145 fleet.

How many could be converted to executive jets? We're talking 1900 RJs of which perhaps 500 are not in condition to become executive jets (e.g., older RJs with lower MTOW/range and thus not suitable for conversion).

It will be interesting when AA or DL does their next round of RJ 'consolidation.'

Lightsaber
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unityofsaints
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:21 am

Hopefully more turboprops. Better for the environment and more fun to fly on.

Longtime lurker, first time poster  
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:30 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
It will be interesting when AA or DL does their next round of RJ 'consolidation.'

Lightsaber



DL will be about done next year. From 2010, they had said they will park and return to lessors, CR2s that they do not need through 2012. The shuttering of Comair will continue until they are only flying a handful of 50 seaters and a few CR7s/9s. As a matter of fact they are loosing 3 additional CR7s to GoJet in conjunction with the 12 that are transferring from OO/EV to bring the contract count to 15.
What gets measured gets done.
 
CRJ 900
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 2:15 pm

They're retiring ours (jazz), aside from their speed I'm not sad to see them go. I agree that big propjets are the way to go for the shorter routes and then 75 +seat jets for the rest. Our new Q4s are very nice, there's only a couple problems with them. If AC wants Jazz to fly those from YQM-YYZ(which starts next month) then they should have coughed up the money to have tvs put on them(even tho Jazz owns those airplanes). That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter). I think the airplane is best suited for 1h or 1h30 max from YYZ and would be perfect for ops out of YVR. They also made a huge mistake installing "poor man's coffee machines". They've actually had to remove them due to issues. They should have installed either the jugs or potable h2o system. People need to get over this perception that props are antiquated technology. Those are jet engines driving those big props afterall.
 
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RayChuang
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 2:24 pm

With new and improved turboprop engines, we could see a LOT of ATR's sold to replace older smaller jets, on the proviso that ATR redesign the wing to better accommodate the type of icing conditions we see in the upper Midwest and US Northeast in winter--in short, the wings may have to be electrically de-iced.
 
queb
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:01 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 5):
and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

There's a lot of companies specialized in CR2 conversion :

MJet, Flying Colours, Comlux America, Project Phoenix, Field Aviation West, JetCorp, Capital Aviation, etc
 
LAXdude1023
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:12 pm

AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.
It is what it is...
 
aamd11
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:23 pm

Quoting CRJ 900 (Reply 9):
If AC wants Jazz to fly those from YQM-YYZ(which starts next month) then they should have coughed up the money to have tvs put on them(even tho Jazz owns those airplanes). That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter).

3:10 is one hell of a block for YQM-YYZ... Porter's YQM-YOW-YTZ services on their Q400s are blocked at around 3:15 including the 30 minute stop in YOW. The direct YQM-YTZ flights operated by PD over the Christmas period are only 2:40.

I think PTVs on a Q400 make little sense economically... conventional wisdom has it that Q400s, and turboprops in general, are more efficient on the shorter hops. To operate a Q400 on a longer route where the efficiency advantages taper off and then lumber the aircraft with heavy IFE equipment seems counterproductive.

In-flight Wifi might be a thought for Q400 fleets (particularly for Porter) but PTVs I can't see making their way onto Q400s, really.
 
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Acey559
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:19 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):
AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.

Back in September when I was going through indoc, Dan Garton came to talk to us and basically said the same thing. He said that because there are so many routes that AA/MQ controls pricing on, especially the longer intra-Texas flights, even the -135s can be profitable. He said he doesn't see the end of them at MQ in the near term, and for my sake and many of my fellow employees I hope he's right.
 
JoeCanuck
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:25 pm

Wifi can definitely sub as IFE, considering how many people have tablets, smartphones or smaller notebooks, or even...I shudder to think...books.

As it is, expectations of IFE are getting a bit over the top, I reckon. Passengers should be able to find some way to amuse themselves for 3 hours, without it being the responsibility of the airline.
What the...?
 
cyeg66
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:44 pm

Quoting CRJ 900 (Reply 9):
That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter).

???

Quoting aamd11 (Reply 13):
3:10 is one hell of a block for YQM-YYZ... Porter's YQM-YOW-YTZ services on their Q400s are blocked at around 3:15 including the 30 minute stop in YOW. The direct YQM-YTZ flights operated by PD over the Christmas period are only 2:40.

Sorta what I was thinking, it would *probably* only take about 20 mins more than CRJ100/200.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 15):
As it is, expectations of IFE are getting a bit over the top, I reckon. Passengers should be able to find some way to amuse themselves for 3 hours, without it being the responsibility of the airline.

Couldn't agree with you more.
slow to 160, contact tower, slow to 160, contact tower, slow to....ZZZZZZZ......
 
ABQopsHP
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:47 pm

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 14):
the longer intra-Texas flights, even the -135s can be profitable.

When I first started with XE the 135's were still in the system. Now I only get to see MQ bring theirs into CRP. I always liked the sporty little jet, and find it interesting that AA/MQ can make it profitable, but CO could not. The Q400's are on some of the longer markets out of IAH, such as IAH-TUL and OKC. They operate on IAH-MAF / MFE and DFW/DAL in state. The longest route I saw out of IAH was to MTJ last spring . If UA post merger gets rid of all the 50 seaters I am curious to see what will replace them on midsize markets such as AMA CRP and MAF. And what about cities such as VCT, who has Colgan Saabs? My guess is it will not have service to IAH at all, only MQ to DFW.

JD CRP
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canoecarrier
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 7:07 pm

Quoting queb (Reply 11):
There's a lot of companies specialized in CR2 conversion

There may be, but as lightsabre said:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
How many could be converted to executive jets? We're talking 1900 RJs of which perhaps 500 are not in condition to become executive jets

The market for large business jets isn't at 1400 aircraft. It's true you can convert a CR2 for about half the cost of a new Challenger 850. There is a market, but I wouldn't say you could take a significant percentage of the under 50 seat RJ market and continue flying them as bizjets.

Flightglobal covered this a few years ago.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ions-are-good-for-business-316592/

You'll notice that Flying Colors was looking at delivering 8 CR2 conversions in 2009. I suspect those numbers didn't grow much over the past couple years given the economy.
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
MD80Nut
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 7:53 pm

From what the linked article says, they are discontinuing service to many small cities alltogether, so nothing is going to replace many of them. Already many are sitting somewhere awaiting their fate. I suppose they will keep using the remaining 50 seat or less jets until the more efficent 70+ pax models become available. Some routes which are served by multiple RJ will probably be consolidated into a one or two MD80/A320X/737.

I don't have a problem with turboprops at all, I like the ATRs and Dash 8s. I hope they are a solution to help maintain service to the remaining small cities that have it.

Given the state of the economy, at least here in the US, I believe few of the parked RJs will be conversted to private / executive use.

Cheersd, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
UM78
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:40 pm

In Europe the trend is already started, lot of dismisions.
LH has been one the first to decide to never go under the 100 seats.
 
N1120A
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:42 pm

Quoting irshava (Reply 3):
Regional Props are the way to go... at least in Europe....

Regional props are the way to go everywhere. Props + smaller mainline. Majors are stupid to have their smallest aircraft as 73G/A319

Quoting starrion (Reply 5):

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

I would think the pricing would allow someone to get larger aircraft than they could otherwise afford.

No range and bad economy.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):

AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.

You put mainline or larger regional jets on those routes

Quoting ABQopsHP (Reply 17):
I always liked the sporty little jet, and find it interesting that AA/MQ can make it profitable, but CO could not.

Remember, AMR owns MQ, while CO no longer owns ExpressJet.
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VC10er
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:03 pm

Would Embraer be able to sell Legacy "kit's" to change the E135's into private jets or refurbish them for smaller regionals around the world or charter service? What is an E 135's range?
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
United727
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:27 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 22):
Would Embraer be able to sell Legacy "kit's" to change the E135's into private jets or refurbish them for smaller regionals around the world or charter service? What is an E 135's range?

And with that said, what is the current "book" value of the E35's/CR2's, etc?
 
JoeCanuck
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:11 pm

I wonder if there's a market for military/coast guard/border patrol/air ambulance/SAR type usage for these aircraft. I would guess that the majority of these craft are being mothballed due to operating cost, as opposed to mx costs.

They'd certainly lead a more docile life doing government work of some sort than the slam/bam grind they currently go through.
What the...?
 
nycdave
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:48 pm

In choosing between the E-Jets and the CRJ700/900 being the two big players in this field (especially in the US), what qualities are there for an airline to decide between one or the other? From a pax standpoint, I know I prefer riding on an E-Jet, but I know different jets have different efficiencies over different ranges and loads, and over the course of service life, and different leasing/purchase costs... etc. Anyone care to enlighten on those?
 
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coronado
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:51 pm

The sad conclusion is that a whole bunch of airports that currently have CRJ/ERJ 37-50 pax service will be loosing service alltogether, unless:
a) They have a strong enough market with enough O&D to justify an 80% load factor on a 70 or 90 pax aircraft operating once a day replacing two of the smaller jets.. Having said how many stations can afford the overhead to support a single 70 or 90 pax jet per day replacing. Not sure if you can find enough part time staff to work 2 hours a day for a single aircraft turn. Also to say the least highly inefficient use of TSA.
b) They can get subsidies to entice an airline to continue servicing the area.

In the Upper Peninsula of Michigan we are already seeing some of the effects of the RJ drawdown, as well as that of the Saab 340's. CMX is now served by United (Skywest) twice per day, under an EAS subsidy. MQT is down to a 7x / week Delta connection flight to DTW plus a second flight to DTW that only operates 6 days a week, plus an American Eagle 6 day a week flight to ORD. Delta Connection used to serve MSP with a daily from MQT and AA Eagle had effectively 19 weekly frequencies to ORD, some with intermediate stops. So from about 40 weekly frequencies MQT is now down to 19 weekly connections to the rest of the world.

Other airports within 2 hour driving time from Marquette basically don't exist, particularly during the (long) winter months. If you stretch driving time to 3 hours, you can get to Escanaba, Rhinelander and Ironwood, and all of them are likely to loose service soon. The only thing keeping service into some of those markets is that EAS providers can't pull out until the government allows them to.

I think it would be a lot cheaper in the long run to build a regional airport maybe 25-30 miles south of L'Anse so that all the towns in the Western Upper Peninsula would be within 120 minutes driving time of an airport.

While MQT (Sawyer) is an impressively large facility it has also to be impressively expensive for the county to maintain.
The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
 
CRJ 900
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:54 pm

OOOOPS my bad I dunno what I was looking at yyz-yqm 2h12 and yqm-yyz 2H47 blk...just checked in in the bid package. Maybe it was the rumored YYG -YYZ ....I agree with the WIFI, prolly a better idea than tvs. In any case, a lil too long to be on that airplane.
 
EMBQA
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sat Nov 26, 2011 11:15 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 22):
Would Embraer be able to sell Legacy "kit's" to change the E135's into private jets

To a fully Legacy..? The cost would be astronomical. To a Corporate Shuttle Legacy, it has already been done. But why...? The secondary market on Legacy 600's is pretty fair as many owners want the newer 650.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
bjorn14
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:26 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 22):
What is an E 135's range?

Published range is 1,750nm for an LR. About a 1/4 of them are in the desert right now.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
scutfarcus
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:38 am

My two cents - this is a screaming call for regional high speed rail in the United States. Fat chance it happens given the political climate, but rail could efficiently replace most short-hop flights easily and efficiently.
 
JoeCanuck
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:52 am

Quoting scutfarcus (Reply 30):

It's not just political climate...it's billions of dollars that just aren't available, and most of it would be picked up by the public purse.

Most airline expenses are picked up by the airlines themselves.
What the...?
 
toltommy
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 2:25 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 21):
Majors are stupid to have their smallest aircraft as 73G/A319

Majors didn't want it that way. AC flew the CRJ100 under an agreement that got furloughed pilots back to work. But once all those pilots were back, it got too expensive to keep them on a mainline contract, so off they went. Delta also tried to work out a deal that would have brought the CRJ from Comair to mainline, but IIRC the ALPA units could not agree.

In the end, it would be great to see regional aircraft operated by the majors, but the regionals operate the aircraft for less than the majors ever could.
 
9w748capt
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:01 am

Quoting Coronado (Reply 26):
In the Upper Peninsula of Michigan we are already seeing some of the effects of the RJ drawdown, as well as that of the Saab 340's. CMX is now served by United (Skywest) twice per day, under an EAS subsidy. MQT is down to a 7x / week Delta connection flight to DTW plus a second flight to DTW that only operates 6 days a week, plus an American Eagle 6 day a week flight to ORD. Delta Connection used to serve MSP with a daily from MQT and AA Eagle had effectively 19 weekly frequencies to ORD, some with intermediate stops. So from about 40 weekly frequencies MQT is now down to 19 weekly connections to the rest of the world.

You bring up a good point. I also wonder what will happen at an airport like AZO. We used to have (gulp!) at least 1-2 mainline flights a day on DC-9s. Those were scaled back to CR7/CR9, now AZO only sees exclusively CR1s and CR2s. That plus there are only two legacy airlines left. The economy and fuel prices haven't been good for anyone.
 
PPVRA
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:00 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 24):

I'm thinking corporate shuttle and charter could take a few of them. Tough part is the economy right now.

Quoting United727 (Reply 23):
And with that said, what is the current "book" value of the E35's/CR2's, etc?

Book value isn't going to tell you anything interesting, it's their market value that counts. . . and they are probably low right now.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Devilfish
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:05 pm

Quoting jetpilot (Thread starter):
Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinasaur

At least those got built and flew revenue service.....this never did...  http://www.astronautix.com/graphics/d/dynab52.jpg
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
saab2000
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:18 pm

I predict a number of the 50 seaters will be in service for quite a few years to come. The fact is that like the ancient DC-9s at NWA, once the acquisition costs are amortized the cost of fuel is less of a factor. Planes that are paid for are (relatively) cheap to operate.

My airilne operates 71 CRJ-200s and I'd be surprised if they don't continue for at least another 5-10 years of operation given the airline's private ownership (and therefore different requirements than a publicly traded company). Possibly longer.

They'll negotiate cheap lease rates and keep them flying. Not every airline can do this, but there are routes that are appropriate for the 50-seat jet. The US is not Europe and the distances are simply much greater and not all the long, thin routes can be done on turboprops, even fast ones.
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toltommy
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:45 pm

Quoting scutfarcus (Reply 30):
this is a screaming call for regional high speed rail in the United States.

Rail will never break even, high speed rail even less so. The infrastructure for regional air service is already in place. I don't advocate subsidizing air service, but subsidized air service would cost a LOT less than rail ever will.
 
planemaker
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:52 pm

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 36):
My airilne operates 71 CRJ-200s and I'd be surprised if they don't continue for at least another 5-10 years of operation given the airline's private ownership (and therefore different requirements than a publicly traded company). Possibly longer.

Your airline might but the the overall domestic airline industry future is very uncertain. The more people I talk with the more I realize that few people understand that the economy is not going to be be going back to the rates of growth that we have had. Across broad sectors of the economy what is happening is managed contraction that is relatively slowly paced for the most part but will accelerate. There is going to be unavoidalbe consolidation among the majors and that will just increase the retirement rate of RJs.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
747400sp
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:03 pm

GOOD! I can not stand those CRJ 100/200, now I do like the EMB ERJs, but a MD80/90 flying in its place, is fine with me. What I would like to see, is how a 130 to 160 passenger turboprop, using two up graded TP400 engines, would work on MD80/90s or even some 737/A32X routes.
 
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knope2001
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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:00 pm

At least in the US, while I do think that some communities will lose all air service, I don’t think that’s the biggest story here. The bulk of 50-seat RJ’s are not serving tiny markets which in the past only supported 19-37 seat props who may now be left hig and dry. Plus EAS will probably keep many communities which generate at least a few dozen enplanements per day at minimal scheduled air service anyway. (Subsidized air service programs are almost certain to be with us for quite some time in spite of EAS supposedly being on its deathbed for 20+ years.)

Here’s where I think this will have the biggest impact:

--Hubs for which 50-seat RJ’s were the “right” size for most of their markets will continue to downsize into mere focus cities.

--Somewhat bigger, more viable hubs will still lose flights to many secondary markets.

--Large hubs won’t lose nearly as many markets, but a market which may have supported six CRJ/ERJ a few years back may now get two to four flights on somewhat larger aircraft.

--What nonhub point-to-point flying there is, will end in many cases.

These changes will affect small communities, medium communities, and big ones too. Everybody gets fewer flights to fewer nonstop cities, and what does remain will typcially be on somewhat larger aircraft. It's only a matter of degree.

We’ve already seen a lot of this happening. Look at a place like Madison. Good traffic generator with relatively solid economy (unemployment around 5.5%). Until pretty recently it was linked to 12 hub operations plus had point-to-point RJ flights to New York and Washington DC, and the huge majority of flights were on 50-seat RJ’s. Since then it has lost (or will likely lose) access to connecting hubs in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Memphis, Milwaukee and St Louis. At the same time it is losing those links, it is seeing 70+ seat aircraft replacing 50-seat aircraft on several routings, and new service added to Denver, Orlando and Washington, but on 99-138 seat aircraft. And some of that is non-daily.

The sharp reduction of 50-seat RJ’s means fewer flights, fewer nonstop destinations, and fewer hubs, but with larger aircraft. That story is already happening and will be repeated again and again to a different scale in city after city.
 
747400sp
Posts: 3845
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 7:27 pm

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 7:38 pm

From that article, it looks like MCI is going to get some orders from Air Bus of Oxnard CA, for their Oxnard-LAX shuttle. Hey this may be an opportunity for Fly Away to enter the Oxnard market. As close as Oxnard is to Los Angeles, I would think flying this route, would be over kill. I under stand if you had a 6:00, 7:00 or 8:00 AM flight to JFK or IAD. I can under stand if you are flying to Asia, because some flight to Asia, depart LAX around 10:00 AM, but if you are going to Europe, you can catch the Air Bus in Oxnard and get to LAX, in time for your flight. If you are traveling to the South Pacific or SYD, AKL and MEL, you have more than enough time to use the Air Bus to LAX. If you just want to go to LA, then you have Amtrak, Metro Link and your car, people in Oxnard can live with out flying to Los Angeles.
 
boberito6589
Posts: 363
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:09 pm

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 36):

My airilne operates 71 CRJ-200s and I'd be surprised if they don't continue for at least another 5-10 years of operation given the airline's private ownership (and therefore different requirements than a publicly traded company). Possibly longer.

I saw on here that the airline i think you work for was actually adding 2-3 more CRJ-200s, how is that going? Hopefully better than Piedmont's attempt at getting the YV Dash 8s.
 
DBQ
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2009 10:29 pm

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 7:55 pm

Two things I am not getting:

1. Would airlines really bring back turboprops when passengers are used to jets.

2. If they don't bring them back can they afford to do short runs to smaller communities with larger jets. I'm thinking, say, ORD to my DBQ.
 
LOWS
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:37 am

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:48 pm

Quoting DBQ (Reply 43):
1. Would airlines really bring back turboprops when passengers are used to jets.

Yes. CO does it with 9L on former mainline 735 routes (OKC-IAH, from personal experience). People seem to get on just fine. Of course in Europe, we are quite used to it. SZG-ZRH and SZG-VIE are both routes I have taken. Again, no one fainted when they saw that the propeller was on the outside of the engine...
 
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eurowings
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:40 pm

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:18 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 44):
Of course in Europe, we are quite used to it. SZG-ZRH and SZG-VIE are both routes I have taken. Again, no one fainted when they saw that the propeller was on the outside of the engine...

Indeed, European carriers never really ditched turboprops on the same scale as the US. Cityjet (AF) is even still flying refurbished Fokker 50s. Most passengers seem satisfied with the travelling experience on the latest generation of ATR-72s and Q400s.

Props can be part of a modern, environmentally conscious image that certain airlines are keen to portray. Look at Porter and Flybe with their Q400s, Firefly (MH) with ATR-72s.

[Edited 2011-11-28 13:21:22]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
saab2000
Posts: 1216
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2001 6:19 pm

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:16 pm

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 42):
I saw on here that the airline i think you work for was actually adding 2-3 more CRJ-200s, how is that going? Hopefully better than Piedmont's attempt at getting the YV Dash 8s.

I have not heard that one, but you never know. We just added the 71st airplane which is operating as an 'operational spare' just to try to improve our reliability. I don't think it's to cover added flying.

But one never knows......

I'd like to see us grow.
smrtrthnu
 
catiii
Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:31 pm

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 35):
At least those got built and flew revenue service.....this never did...

I don't get it...

Quoting LOWS (Reply 44):
Yes. CO does it with 9L on former mainline 735 routes (OKC-IAH, from personal experience). People seem to get on just fine.

Agreed. And as someone who has done a lot of CRJ2 flying out of ATL, having had occasion recently to fly on both Porter's Q400s and 9L's Q400s I have to say I much preferred the Q and didnt get the sense that the other passengers even cared it was a turboprop. It's quiet and roomy.
 
Devilfish
Posts: 5214
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:09 pm

Quoting catiii (Reply 47):
I don't get it...

It was just a pun on the misspelled "dinasaur" and the old project.....Dyna-Soar.  
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Mainliner
Posts: 359
Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:34 am

Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?

Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:16 pm

Quoting DBQ (Reply 43):
1. Would airlines really bring back turboprops when passengers are used to jets.

Honestly, I feel that it really doesn't matter what the passengers are used to. The majority of people will book with the airline with the fare that's $5 cheaper and not give a second thought about the aircraft type. Sure, they'll gripe and moan once they get to the airport and see props, and they'll gripe and moan all the way to their destination, but how many will actually refuse to board? I've only had one person walk out in PHL, see our aircraft, and run back inside demanding to be put on the "jet" to HVN   
If turboprops become more prevalent, hopefully much of the "antiquated" stigma associated with them will go away.

Remember that it took some coaxing to get passengers wary of the early 707's and Comets' LACK of propellers to feel safe. Unfortunately the airlines in the US went to the extreme to point out how "vastly" superior jets were to props. They have to un-do all their marketing work from that era!
Every flight counts.

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