xdlx
Topic Author
Posts: 681
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:29 pm

Executive @ SJU

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:27 pm

With the new arrival of the Jetlue Carribean offerings to SJU.... Can we figure how much longer will the
agony continue for the AA/Eagle operation in SJU before is over?
Can they sustain a base there when there are multiple choices for JET service from both
mainland & PR.
 
747400sp
Posts: 3850
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 7:27 pm

RE: Executive @ SJU

Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:22 pm

If they have just prop service, when everybody else are using jets, then they are asking to lose passengers.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1069
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

RE: Executive @ SJU

Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:23 pm

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
With the new arrival of the Jetlue Carribean offerings to SJU....

Are you talking about the intra-Caribbean service? B6 started its first such route (SJU-SDQ) quite some time ago, back in 2008. That said, what started as a daily service has rapidly grown to reach the 4x daily frequency flown today...

Now this year, three more intra-Caribbean routes come online - SJU-SXM has already began, and SJU-STT/STX begin shortly. The USVI routes will do well because B6 is pretty much routing everyone bound for those markets via SJU. It will be interesting to see how SJU-SXM does though, as O&D for that one is limited and the island was already well served nonstop from JFK and BOS.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
Can we figure how much longer will the
agony continue for the AA/Eagle operation in SJU before is over?

Well, AA mainline has already cut everything but service to its five cornerstone hubs, and the spokes of BDL and CCS. I doubt the long thin route to LAX will survive much longer, and BDL is probably due to get cut with B6 starting it soon. Obviously service to DFW, ORD, MIA, and JFK will remain, and keeping the CCS route preserves a scarce U.S.-Venezuela frequency that AA probably doesn't want to give up.

As for Eagle, they have dropped several markets and slashed frequency to most that remain, and it has been publicly stated that various outstations have ponied up subsidies to keep the flights going. You really have three types of markets remaining:

1) High density/strong O&D - SDQ, probably also STI

2) High-yielding niche markets that can NOT be served from the mainland (i.e. JFK/MIA) due to short runways and/or a lack of O&D - EIS, DOM, FDF, PTP, SLU

3) [Likely] subsidized markets that are redundant to nonstop mainland services - ANU, BGI, GND, LRM, PUJ, SKB, STT, STX

Of course, if the third category is largely or completely eliminated, it probably is no longer economical to keep any sort of SJU hub going. AA's bankruptcy will be the true test for what is left of the SJU hub - if it survives, then we can only assume it is making money. Personally, I think the entire Eagle SJU operation will be shut down in 2012, with the birds moved to mainland hubs at DFW, MIA, and perhaps even JFK or LAX.

Quoting xdlx (Thread starter):
Can they sustain a base there when there are multiple choices for JET service from both
mainland & PR.

B6's jets are significantly larger and more expensive to operate than Eagle's ATR-72s. They also require longer runways and greater airfield support services than the hardy turboprops. Thus, you will *NOT* see B6 fill the void left by AA/Eagle in most cases. SXM offered a generous subsidy, so B6 was willing to give SJU-SXM a try. Most other airports will be unable to accept the E-190 (or A320) or unwilling to pay the $$$ for B6 to send a jet to SJU. Most islands will prefer to buy nonstop B6 service to the mainland, and Caribbean carriers like LIAT (or Cape Air) can fill the void left by Eagle to SJU with their smaller turboprops.

When it comes to SJU-mainland, yes, the LCCs have filled the void left by AA (and then some!). The near-simultaneous entry of NK, B6, and FL to the market is what drove AA to drastically downsize the hub in the first place. In particular it seems that B6 and FL/WN are doing extremely well to Puerto Rico, and have aggressive growth plans in store.

I think in 10 years SJU will be a FLL-style LCC battleground, with token legacy airline presence and massive LCC competition to a variety of mainland hubs, focus cities, and spokes.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
xdlx
Topic Author
Posts: 681
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:29 pm

RE: Executive @ SJU

Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:43 pm

In other words they are now down to SDQ/STI, EIS/GND from SJU all other routes are redundant.
It does look rather sad from this: