United727
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Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:26 pm

Exactly what is the current status of the A350 and its sub-variants? Is there any speculation that A will be plagued by the similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years? If so, what are the current debilitating issues? Will the economy, in the fragile condition its in currently, make delays of this program even more challenging to UA and the OAL's waiting for these units to upgrade their fleets in the upcoming years?

[Edited 2011-12-06 13:35:30]
 
gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:30 pm

There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

No information is available to indicate a futher delay.

The plane enters the FAL soon.

There's no point in speculating without any facts.

NS
 
United727
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:32 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

IIRC, Boeing had a few "Simple" delays too.  
 
gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:40 pm

And, over time, we gained a lot more information about that, which made speculation possible.

We simply don't have any now. None exists.

NS
 
ytz
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:00 pm

I don't think there's enough out to quantify the delays.

But as for UA taking delivery, who knows? Sometimes, delays are a blessing in disguise. Would airlines in such poor shape over the last few years really be able to take delivery of all those aircraft? UA might well be happy with a short delay (even if they complain about it publicly...).
 
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frigatebird
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:03 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

Although I don't rule out any further slippages, I'm confident it won't lead to the disastrous 3,5 years of the 787. Contrary to the 787, the A350 isn't rushed into a fake roll-out, of just an empty shell with temporary fasteners purchased in a hardware store around the corner. Airbus will make sure it can manufacture a mature product from the first frames onwards. It's sad that the generous development time they took still isn't enough, but the end result will be a much smoother production ramp-up than the 787 and A380.
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:12 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):

Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

While that is technically correct, the number of aircraft that were due for delivery in 2013 was only 6 all for QR. That is less than a months production at the normal production rate.

Airbus did not have ambitious production ramp up plans for the A350.
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gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:13 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 4):
Sometimes, delays are a blessing in disguise. Would airlines in such poor shape over the last few years really be able to take delivery of all those aircraft?

United is going to have made one billion dollars in profit this year. They the most profitable US airline and one of the most profitable in the world.

There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements.

So there's that.

NS
 
ikramerica
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:48 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
the disastrous 3,5 years

technically, it was 3.25 years. Not like it matters.

Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
While that is technically correct, the number of aircraft that were due for delivery in 2013 was only 6 all for QR. That is less than a months production at the normal production rate.

Why does that matter? We don't know if the same would happen in 2014, with only 6 deliveries. Looks like 6 is an ambitious number for the 787 program this year...
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ABpositive
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:53 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There's no point in speculating without any facts.

We might as well close the a.net forum then...
 
gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:55 pm

Quoting ABpositive (Reply 9):
We might as well close the a.net forum then...

We could instead just moderate those posts more accurately.

NS
 
n1786b
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:56 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

Well, not counting the non-xwb versions of the A350, let's see what they had to say when they launched it.

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/new...-body-family-for-the-21st-century/

Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.
 
United727
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:58 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 3):
We simply don't have any now. None exists.

So one wonders... Is A is keeping information about the A350 from the public for a reason????

Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
Airbus did not have ambitious production ramp up plans for the A350.

That's past tense...is this still the case?

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements.

I get slight the impression you are ever so slightly "sensitive" about UA discussions and its ops.    In YZK's defense, he never said that UA won't take the planes, IIRC he merely made a remark questioning if they would take all that they ordered.

As for UA, nothing to be sensitive about...I'm a pre-9/11 airline brat from the "real" UA (back in the day). UA is nothing but a shell of its namesake from the glory days of long ago.
 
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:22 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):

Why does that matter?

Because the number of deliveries planned in the first years was very low, they have a very good chance of recovering from the delay very quickly.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):
We don't know if the same would happen in 2014, with only 6 deliveries.

And they could also deliver all those aircraft plus the planned aircraft for 2014 in 2014.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 8):
Looks like 6 is an ambitious number for the 787 program this year...

If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):

That's past tense...is this still the case?

Yes.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:38 am

While not as ambitious as Boeing (who in 2008 intended to deliver 109 planes within 18 months), Airbus' original production plan was 18 in 2013, 51 in 2014 and 83 in 2015.

So if Airbus is now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014, that would be a significant cut.
 
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
While not as ambitious as Boeing (who in 2008 intended to deliver 109 planes within 18 months),

If you want to discuss the 787 production issues, take it to the 787 production thread.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
Airbus' original production plan was 18 in 2013, 51 in 2014 and 83 in 2015.

Where did you pull those numbers from ? The Ascend data base does not show anything like that number for the A350.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
So if Airbus is now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014, that would be a significant cut.

Where did you pull the "now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014" number from ?
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:06 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

Meow sir. Calm down. Comparing the two programs makes some sense.  

NS
 
gigneil
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:10 am

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):
I get slight the impression you are ever so slightly "sensitive" about UA discussions and its ops.

I'm just sensitive in general today. I'll get over it.

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion and how now that Smisek is in charge clearly UA will be going all Boeing IMMEDIATELY and etc etc etc.

But hey, clearly I just post in quantity and I do not know anything about airlines or aviation.

NS

[Edited 2011-12-06 20:11:31]
 
planewasted
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:25 am

I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program. Boeing must have know quite early they had problems but did not announce them. Because of that, I trust Airbus current estimates a lot more.
 
justloveplanes
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:50 am

Quoting n1786b (Reply 11):
Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.

Were any orders placed with that assumption? If not, then the delivery date for the first order should be used.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
Originally, EIS of the A350-900 in its current XWB form was Q2 2013. It's now Q2 2014, so the delay is 1 year. 6 months was its most recent delay, but it had already suffered a previous 6 months delay to Q4 2013.

My gut feel is with the amount of new technology, there will be more delays. Unless A has already matured it's grip on essentially a new concept aircraft, and hence has a deterministic understanding of all the issues it has left (no unknown unknowns and bounded known unknowns), there will be more surprises. 6 months at least, perhaps a bit more. Doubt they'll get to a total of 3 years behind but around 2 years give or take a few months seems a reasonable guess.
 
qfa787380
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:50 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 1):
There is a simple 6 month delay as of now.

No information is available to indicate a futher delay.

The plane enters the FAL soon.

There's no point in speculating without any facts.



Wrong again,

Bernstein, who proved to be very accurate re 787 delays are predicting another 12 month delay for the 350 and don't expect EIS until 2015. Many analysts are of the same opinion but you obviously know better.
 
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:05 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 17):

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion

I am the same, and I do not like it how every A350 related thread has been driven to be a comparison to the 777 and 787 by the same people. Makes one think if there is an orchestrated effort to muddy the A350 program.

Quoting planewasted (Reply 18):
I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program.

I have been at the briefing Airbus gave to a customer recently, and I would have to agree with the observation. They have told us exactly where the problems were, and how they have been identified and fixed. They have stressed that they are not going forward unless issues that have been encountered are dealt with as they arise, they will not carry forward unfinished work to the next step. This means that unfinished work is not being masked with production and delivery of unfinished sections.

This along with using the same suppliers as of previous projects, and using essentially a very similar production method as similar projects give customers a lot more confidence in the project timeline. People know how an A330 is being built today, so they have a very good idea how the A350 will be built, and the have confidence in the same suppliers.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
AngMoh
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:29 am

Quoting planewasted (Reply 18):
I have the impression that Airbus is a lot more open about delays in the A350 program, than Boeing during the 787 program. Boeing must have know quite early they had problems but did not announce them. Because of that, I trust Airbus current estimates a lot more.

I also have the impression that Airbus has a lot more emphasis on 'industrialisation" (i.e. how to get them build) than Boeing. That actually drove the choice for panels over barrels. I would not be surprised with more delays till EIS, but I don't expect them to be anywhere near the 787 delays and I think the manufacturing ramp up will be much much faster.

I expect the flight test to have less issues (and therefore to be almost delay-free) thanks to the iron bird testing (a huge lesson learned from the A380).

And the Trent XWB looks very good (thanks to the lessons learned from Trent 900 and Tent 1000)....
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Acheron
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 7:09 am

There will certainly be delays for the A350. That much is a given.

Will they be of the same extent than the 787?. Doubt it. Boeing tried to many new things(for them) at the same time which ended up biting them in the ass, while Airbus approach is relatively more conservative and few of the A350 technologies are already flying in the A380.
 
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frigatebird
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:24 am

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 19):
Quoting n1786b (Reply 11):Entry into service for the A350-900 is foreseen for 2012.
Were any orders placed with that assumption? If not, then the delivery date for the first order should be used.

Yes, SQ was launch customer of the first A350XWB version. But that was still with an Al-Li fuselage design. After some criticism from the airlines and leasing companies (Notably ILFC's mr. Udvar-Hazy), Airbus decided to redesign it and use CFRP panels, which resulted in a planned EIS of 2013. But I don't count that as a 'delay' in the same sense as that other airplane which cannot be mentioned in this thread   

Quoting Acheron (Reply 24):
There will certainly be delays for the A350. That much is a given.

Will they be of the same extent than the 787?.

Ssshhht! Don't mention that plane   
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tommytoyz
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:58 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from AB is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring. But that's just me. If I were a betting man, I would put money on further delays, due to this information black out. If the delays will approach 787 delays? Time will tell....

[Edited 2011-12-07 02:01:31]
 
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:39 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays.

No, the OP said, "similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years". Read the actual OP, not just the title. Answer the actual question asked, not just what you think is being asked.

The answer is no. They are using their proven suppliers, and using the same production method, they are not facing the same issues. They are not using unproven suppliers, unproven production techniques, or an unproven supply chain.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from Airbus is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring.

Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

I have lost count of the number of A350 threads, the amount of information out there is staggering, to claim there is a lack of information is baseless. What you what to say is that some magic bullet of information is being deliberately withheld which would prove that Airbus is totally incompetent, and Boeing is the only manufacturer any airline should ever but aircraft from.

I have a lot more confidence in the A350 than I have in any of the other recent aircraft brought into service, you have customers pushing them to get on with building more aircraft, and the you Airbus saying, no we want o get it right.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 26):
I would put money on further delays, due to this information black out.

There may well be further delays, however that will be due to then wanting to get things right.

And that is exactly what the customers want in the end.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
Arniepie
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:45 am

Just out of curiosity but are the A350 assembly parts going to be delivered in the old style airbus way,
essentially mainly by Beluga or is it going to be more like today's A380 with the barges and such or maybe
an amalgamation of the 2 ways?
[edit post]
 
tommytoyz
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 11:20 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
No, the OP said, "similar issues that B and the 787 has seen over the past years". Read the actual OP, not just the title. Answer the actual question asked, not just what you think is being asked.

I will read the title, just like everyone else, sorry old chap. Or are you suggesting I and everyone else ignore it?

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
There may well be further delays,...

So we agree - why the anger then?

[Edited 2011-12-07 03:27:25]
 
tommytoyz
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 11:37 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
I have a lot more confidence in the A350 than I have in any of the other recent aircraft brought into service

We'll see how rightly or wrongly your personal confidence has been placed.
 
rjm777ual
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:12 pm

As of right now, Airbus has constructed the first A350 XWB front fuselage sector. I'm guessing early 2017 is when the first will be delivered. You also have to count in the engine factor too.
Greetings from Dulles!
 
ebj1248650
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:13 pm

Modern technology being what it is, I'd think we'd expect delays as new techniques, materials and such are introduced to airplane manufacturing. Both the 787 and the A350 represent huge advancements in technology, as surely as the F-35 series represents them. Is it any wonder that technical problems arise and delays take place.

These kinds of things happened in years past but the difference between then and the present is that there was no such thing as instant communications and it follows it was a lot easier to conceal problems for a while, whereas today if you have a problem, the world knows about it before the day is done.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
Cerecl
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:17 pm

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 32):
I'm guessing early 2017 is when the first will be delivered. You also have to count in the engine factor too.

  So you are predicting another ~3 years' of delay?

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 32):
You also have to count in the engine factor too.

TrentXWB was reportedly going well.
 
rjm777ual
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:21 pm

The original time frame was 2015-2016.
Greetings from Dulles!
 
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frigatebird
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:33 pm

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 33):
The original time frame was 2015-2016.

For the A350-1000. That has indeed been pushed back to 2017.
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United727
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 12:38 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 16):
Meow sir. Calm down. Comparing the two programs makes some sense.  

NS

LOL, Neil, there have been plenty of times I've wanted to use this same sentiment for your posts with specific regard to UA.  
Quoting gigneil (Reply 17):
I'm just sensitive in general today. I'll get over it.

I just don't like the constant A v B nonsense that rules every discussion and how now that Smisek is in charge clearly UA will be going all Boeing IMMEDIATELY and etc etc etc.

But hey, clearly I just post in quantity and I do not know anything about airlines or aviation.NS

I've come to terms that you must be Senior Management with UA and "be in the know"???   

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I certainly did ask for a comparison in a most "benign" manner...No need to argue children, lol  
Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 33):

The original time frame was 2015-2016.

  
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:01 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Where did you pull the "now planning 6 deliveries by the end of 2014" number from?

An erroneous extrapolation on my part of your comment in Reply 6 that Airbus planned to deliver six planes, all to QR, in Q4 2013 to an equally erroneous new delivery date of Q4 2014 when the new delivery date is 1H 2014. I therefore formally withdraw the comment and apologize for my error.

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Where did you pull those numbers from? The Ascend data base does not show anything like that number for the A350.

The Los Echos article from August 2010 where they projected that Airbus would not make their original delivery targets for those three years. I assume they pulled those numbers from Airbus, since that would be the logical source of said delivery targets.

That being said, I found a second source at FlightGlobal from 2008 attributed to Francois Caudron, vice-president A350 customer and business development:

Quote:
The sections will arrive by Beluga in Toulouse, where they will be united to create a complete aircraft using a new, streamlined final assembly concept. Airbus intends to build 18 aircraft in 2013, which will be the first year of full production and then ramp up through 83 units after two years and stabilise at 143 units annually from 2017.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:00 pm

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
Quoting zeke (Reply 28):
Airbus is keeping the customers in the loop, not only via the embedded Airbus staff attached to various airlines, through the regional officers, and the actual A350XWB team.

Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.


No, it is not. See below:

Quoting zeke (Reply 21):
I have been at the briefing Airbus gave to a customer recently, and I would have to agree with the observation.


Now what link should he post here to verify that? He was there, that is what counts. That he can publicly not share proprietary information is clear as well. I will take his word for it more than almost any other poster here that these meetings are held. And by chance I have talked a couple of times to some engineers who are directly involved into the A350- program. Their information is consistent with what Zeke has been posting here. That is good enough for me.
 
Aeolus
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:06 pm

Will we still see the A358? I've never known what's become of it except that Airbus is pushing everyone to either change to A359 or A350-1000s...

-Aeolus
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:11 pm

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 27):
amalgamation of the 2 ways?

Road, rail, sea, river, and air.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):

I will read the title, just like everyone else, sorry old chap. Or are you suggesting I and everyone else ignore it?

How could you quote my reply 13 if you only read the title ?

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
Quote verifiable source please, otherwise just pure personal speculation on your part.

I was at the Airbus briefing, this is what happens when people actually WORK in the industry.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 28):
So we agree

Not at all. I have seen this cycle before on the A380 threads, a pack of non industry a.net members ready to bash whatever manufacturers is the flavour of the month. I am not ruling out further delays, however I am not assuming it is a foregone conclusion either.

I am a lot closer to hearing of any issues with the project than most people here, and unlike other previous project a number of airlines have representatives actually in TLS with Airbus full time. This project is far more transparent to the industry compared to anything previous.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):

The Los Echos article from August 2010 where they projected that Airbus would not make their original delivery targets for those three years. I assume they pulled those numbers from Airbus, since that would be the logical source of said delivery targets.

Did Los Echos actually say the source was Airbus, or leaks and rumours ?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):

That being said, I found a second source at FlightGlobal from 2008 attributed to Francois Caudron, vice-president A350 customer and business development:

As far as I am aware, most of aircraft that would be built in 2013, were to be delivered the following year, likewise aircraft set for delivery in 2013 were to be built mainly in 2012 along with the remaining flight test airframes, during the ground/flight test schedule.

We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:13 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 22):
I expect the flight test to have less issues (and therefore to be almost delay-free) thanks to the iron bird testing (a huge lesson learned from the A380).

Be careful with putting too much stock in iron birds vs. flight test delays...the 787 also had an iron bird. They're a great idea, no doubt, but they don't cure all flight test ills. Mostly because iron birds, by definition, don't actually fly.

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
I personally think that the lack of information on the A350 timeline from AB is not a good indicator nor confidence inspiring.

Although I believe Zeke is correct (Airbus is communicating to customers and suppliers a lot), lack of very detailed schedule information at this point is, I think, a good thing. Anyone on a project of this scale who says "You'll get your delivery in this month (or even this quarter) of this year 3 or 4 or 5 years away" is just making stuff up. The "tolerance" stackup of projects of this scale on that timeline just doesn't let you have that kind of precision or accuracy.

The plane will fly when it's ready and it will deliver when it's ready. Not even Airbus knows when that is, so if they run around telling people that they know when that is then *that* would be suspicious.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
They are using their proven suppliers, and using the same production method, they are not facing the same issues.

Yes on suppliers and issues, but it's not the same production method. This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

Quoting zeke (Reply 26):
They are not using unproven suppliers, unproven production techniques, or an unproven supply chain.

Yes on the supply chain and assembly techniques but no on the suppliers...all the 787 partners were large aviation suppliers with existing pedigrees.

Tom.
 
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zeke
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:27 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

It is still panels over a frame being assembled at a first tier supplier, shipped to the FAL in once piece, just like the A330.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
.all the 787 partners were large aviation suppliers with existing pedigrees.

The composite spoilers were being made by an Austrian snowboard manufacturer with no aviation experience. None of the suppliers had ever built a one piece barrel before, or as far as I am aware a large composite wing box for an airliner.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
flipdewaf
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:28 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 40):
Yes on suppliers and issues, but it's not the same production method. This is the first superpanel CFRP airplane they've done.

Although not the entire main structure, wasn't the A380 aft section made using this method?

Fred
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ebbuk
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:59 pm

Quoting United727 (Reply 35):

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 25):
If you want to discuss the 787, please pick a 787 thread, there are various 787 production threads.

The Op and the header asks a specific question - comparing the A350 with 787 delays. Naturally then, 787 production delays would be legitimately discussed. So I don't get your repetitive anger posts for others discussing 787 delays in this thread.

I certainly did ask for a comparison in a most "benign" manner...No need to argue children, lol

So that I am clear the question is not will the A350 have similar delays to the B787 but will it have equally lengthy delays as the B787? Clarity from the offset makes for healthy discussion, I find.

I want to have Zeke's confidence but as a non-industry enthusiast, who's been burnt before (A380), I won't go there. From the little I have read, RR's XWB engine is looking hot hot hot so. Just need to have all the other variables come up trumps too.
 
ytz
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:06 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
United is going to have made one billion dollars in profit this year. They the most profitable US airline and one of the most profitable in the world.

This year. How'd they do the last couple? I'm not saying they are not profitable. All I suggested is that delays might be a blessing in disguise sometimes for airlines. If they are having trouble raising financing, delays help. During the last credit crunch, it might well have been challenging to finance $5 billion worth of airplanes.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 7):
There is no reason whatsoever to believe they won't take the planes. In fact, Jeff Smisek mentions them often during appearances and in internal announcements

I didn't say they won't take delivery. I just suggested that it's wrong to think that they necessarily mind the delays. They might. But nobody here really knows the truth.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:43 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 39):
Did Los Echos actually say the source was Airbus, or leaks and rumours?

They did not provide a source, but as their comments track directly to those comments from M. Caudron's comments from two years earlier, that seems the most logical source as opposed to a leak or a rumor.



Quoting zeke (Reply 39):
As far as I am aware, most of aircraft that would be built in 2013, were to be delivered the following year, likewise aircraft set for delivery in 2013 were to be built mainly in 2012 along with the remaining flight test airframes, during the ground/flight test schedule.

That makes sense based on M. Caudron's 2008-era delivery projection as well as other information.
 
747400sp
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:21 pm

Quoting United727 (Reply 12):
As for UA, nothing to be sensitive about...I'm a pre-9/11 airline brat from the "real" UA (back in the day). UA is nothing but a shell of its namesake from the glory days of long ago.

UA used to be a modern Pan Am in pre-9/11, they even had anround the world service with a 744, 763 and 772, I believe it was flight 1 LAX-HKG-BOM-LHR-IAD-LAX. Now post merger DL has taken a lot of UA thrunder, UA was going down hill before there merger with CO.


AS for the A350, EK told them, that if the A350 have the same delays that Airbus had with the A380, then EK do not mind going to Boeing to order 777s in the A350s place. Thurth is, if Airbus wants to get a outstanding reputation with the A350, they better try to keep the delays as small as possiable.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:45 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
Quoting zeke (Reply 21):
I am the same, and I do not like it how every A350 related thread has been driven to be a comparison to the 777 and 787 by the same people. Makes one think if there is an orchestrated effort to muddy the A350 program.
Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
If you want to discuss the 787 production issues, take it to the 787 production thread.

If you want to discuss the A350 without mentioning the 787 program, maybe you should post in a thread that doesn't mention both IN THE TITLE. Seriously, this thread is about the A350 delay potential in relation to the 787 disaster of a program.

Currently, the A350 delays are design only. That would mean that if all else went well, they would be able to ramp up and deliver on the same schedule, though delayed.

But if they encounter similar complicated change incorporation problems to the 787 and A380, there is little chance that the "stockpiled" aircraft would be deliverable in 2014. Again, look at the 787 and A380 programs for recent history on this.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:21 pm

It is too early to know if there will be a another delay, but it is also too early to know if it will deliver on time. At this point in the build process, Airbus and its suppliers are completing qualification tests on the critical long lead design parts. Flight Control Actuation, landing gear actuation, brakes, hydraulic pumps, electrical generators, power distribution, environment control systems, etc are some of the longest lead items in the airplane for example and right now is when they are working on completing endurance/limit/life cycle etc testing on each component. It is always possible that something will be found that requires redesign. Problems in testing are expected, and in fact if everything went through smoothly, it is reflective of a bad design since that means the components were overdesigned (too heavy). There are always design conditions that are overlooked in designing components, so problems and failures happen for that reason as well.

Some of the big problems that lead to delays such as an overlooked electrical redundancy problem (787), troubled flight controls (747-8), configuration control of electrical wiring (A380) are the type of items that still can pop up in the design. Everyone likes to criticize the CEO or management for the delays, but they are often technical in nature and management's ability to react to problems is what prevents delays. The certification process for a new airliner is more robust now than it has ever been before which is why we see such stunning in service safety records of newly designed airplanes. The FAA and EASA are in tight control of the design certification. The result is that a problem in any of the complex systems can come up. Sometimes a redesign with even the most experienced engineers can take months and even years.

There are many reasons for delays, and we can only hope that Airbus is able to react to problems efficiently and they don't end up with a problem that takes months and years to solve. What failures in qualification and certification occur are usually not predicatable since if they were, they would not have been designed that way.

[Edited 2011-12-07 09:22:19]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
steffenbn
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RE: Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?

Wed Dec 07, 2011 8:12 pm

Quoting United727 (Thread starter):
Will A350 Have Similar Delays To B787?  

Who would really know that untill the A350 is at EIS??   
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