747400sp
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:26 pm

With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.




PS: Do not get me wrong, I believe only wide bodies, SSTs (if one get built) and may be 757s, should be the only thing flying TATL, but lets face it, airlines are down sizing to save money, and if you put big an enough wing and fuel tank on a RJ, 20 years from now, they could be flying TATL.
 
sw733
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:30 pm

I think it would be tricky to imagine this for a couple reasons:

1) Cargo capacity would be nil. Many (most) airlines make big money off of cargo TATL.

2) Fares would likely be even higher than dedicated Privatair or BA LCY-JFK service, meaning there would be a very small market...no to mention that once you start getting fares incredibly high, you run in to the level of people who may have access to private jets instead of commercial transport.

Just two things that popped in my head right off the bat.
 
kcrwflyer
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:33 pm

The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.
 
steex
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:37 pm

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 2):
The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.

This pretty well sums it up. People who could afford to pay the fare necessary to make these flights profitable are probably already flying planes that size across the pond, except without all those other pesky passengers on them.

I could also argue that if a 50-seat plane started flying regular TATL service, we would no longer be able to call that plane a regional jet!   
 
fpetrutiu
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:02 pm

No way, there is no way they could fit that much fuel on board, or even if they did, there is no way it would be profitable. They very much depend on short hops and lots of cycles to be profitable.

Quoting steex (Reply 3):
I could also argue that if a 50-seat plane started flying regular TATL service, we would no longer be able to call that plane a regional jet!

I guess it all depends what you consider a region...
 
CRJ900
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:24 pm

A CRJ900 or E190 could probably fly Halifax - Iceland - Europe, but fares would have to be quite cheap for people to take that route.
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B747forever
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:29 pm

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 5):
A CRJ900 or E190 could probably fly Halifax - Iceland - Europe, but fares would have to be quite cheap for people to take that route.

But they would never make any money out of that!
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airindia787
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:31 pm

As if sitting in a 757 for 7 hours isn't bad enough. There are several issues with using RJs for such long ranges, anyway, not least being cost. There is the issue of fuel capacity, catering (since many RJs are not equipped with ovens), lack of cargo/baggage capacity, etc. There is no advantage to using RJs on such short flights, the traffic that would use these flights can simply do what they do now, which is fly to a larger city nearby and connect to wherever they are going.
 
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lightsaber
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:28 pm

RJ economics tends to flatline after 2300nm. Since 2300nm provides connections anywhere in the USA from an 'interior hub,' there is no demand for adding more range (which adds weight).

There is a rule of '3 for 2' in aircraft size. A 150 seat aircraft will fly a distance on about twice the fuel of a 50 seater (if they were built to the same technology, which doesn't happen as RJ engines must be cheaper).

The cost of adding a TATL wing (4200nm still air range) to a RJ (50 to 90 seats) is insane. It would make the RJ non-viable on the typical 400nm to 900nm RJ route a la the 737-700LR.

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future?

We'll see business jets filling in the low demand routes. Those are much more flexible (non-fixed flight times and destination).

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 2):
The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.

   Even the 737-700LR isn't working that well.

Lightsaber
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planemaker
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:04 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):
The cost of adding a TATL wing (4200nm still air range) to a RJ (50 to 90 seats) is insane. It would make the RJ non-viable on the typical 400nm to 900nm RJ route a la the 737-700LR.

After Concorde went out of service Virgin took a hard look at using the GX for London-New York and the economics didn't work back then even with fuel cost lower.

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ

I had a chuckle... if it flew TATL it couldn't be an RJ, could it?  
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Jamake1
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:07 am

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.

Don't give 'em any ideas...
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AADC10
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:45 am

You might see them as some kind of high end non-scheduled service but as fuel prices rise, smaller planes become less viable. Basic physics start to apply where volume increases by the cube while drag increases by the square. Within practical limits, larger aircraft are more efficient than smaller aircraft.

The result is that there will probably be fewer but larger flights between fewer hubs. Some long, thin routes will bit the dust.
 
747400sp
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 4:09 am

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 10):
Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.


Don't give 'em any ideas...




Oh believe me, hope no airline will consider this ideal.      

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 11):
The result is that there will probably be fewer but larger flights between fewer hubs. Some long, thin routes will bit the dust.



Sounds good to me! A380s, 747s and 777s between hubs, the only way to fly.   
 
PlymSpotter
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 7:12 pm

I wouldn't completely rule it out - not on a large scale, but there may be a niche. Say in 10-15 years time a manufacturer is able to offer BA a 'regional' aircraft which can replace the A318 and ERJs with a single family. Another airline might use the same aircraft as a TATL/long haul route opener, in a similar way to QR's current use of the A319LR. Another could make use of it as an all premium aircraft flying between key economic hubs.

There's too many possibilities and variables to say it definitely wouldn't work; if a carrier feels they can make the numbers add up or save money then who knows.


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malaysia
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 7:15 pm

for an RJ, Id rather take an IL-18 coot TATL
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csturdiv
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Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 7:51 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago,

Many years ago when i was first learning how to compile flightplans for Microsoft Flight Simulator, I was working on plans for Olympic Airways, and due to an incorrect airport code in my compiler's database, I had an ATR 42-300 flying nonstop from Greece to some little airport in Kentucky. Although I eventually corrected the file, I always had a chuckle when I watched the little ATR land at the strip in Kentucky. So yes, it could be done and has been done, virtually that is and virtually due to my mistake.  
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David_itl
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Fri Dec 09, 2011 11:34 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.

scheduled service perhaps not for that long - it's just 15 or 16 years worth of operations I believe. Charters from the likes of Air 2000, Monarch and Air Europe to MCO using 757s were quite common from LTN, LGW & MAN from 1989 onwards.
 
sawtooth
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:19 am

CSeries is on the edge of TATL range, presume the rumored CS500 would increase range if it were built.
 
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zippyjet
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:05 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 9):
After Concorde went out of service Virgin took a hard look at using the GX for London-New York and the economics didn't work back then even with fuel cost lower.

What is GX? Did you mean VA taking over the Concordes? If so, it didn't happen because BA and AF refused to sell/lease them to Virgin Atlantic.

When I think of RJ across the pond I think of 007 Goldfinger where Pussy Galore pilots a Lockheed Jetstar with Bond as an involuntary passenger from Austria to Lexington, Ky. with a fuel stop at my stomping grounds BWI which was then known as BAL/Friendship International Airport.   


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flyby519
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:13 am

Quoting csturdiv (Reply 15):
Many years ago when i was first learning how to compile flightplans for Microsoft Flight Simulator, I was working on plans for Olympic Airways, and due to an incorrect airport code in my compiler's database, I had an ATR 42-300 flying nonstop from Greece to some little airport in Kentucky. Although I eventually corrected the file, I always had a chuckle when I watched the little ATR land at the strip in Kentucky. So yes, it could be done and has been done, virtually that is and virtually due to my mistake.

There's an idea. TATL in an ATR. Chosing between that and another hole in my head would be a tough call.  
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contrails
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:16 am

What a horrible thought. I certainly hope not.
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flyby519
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:58 am

Quoting contrails (Reply 20):
What a horrible thought. I certainly hope not.

$5 cheaper than the competitors and someone will make a business out of it
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zippyjet
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 3:13 am

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 21):
$5 cheaper than the competitors and someone will make a business out of it

Pet Airways will do a Critter CrawTAT.
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aircanada014
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RE: Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?

Sat Dec 10, 2011 3:26 am

Don't forget during summer season AC flies A319 to LHR from YYT AC822