LAXDESI
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Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:52 am

I hope it finds the funds/investor to overcome its short term liquidity problem. Opportunities exist for Kingfisher in conjunction with Qantas to enter the Australian market.
MAA would be a nice point in India for one-stop flights to Australia as there would be no backtracking.
AA could reschedule its ORD-DEL flight to provide more convenient connection to other points in India with IT's domestic network.
India-HKG/Tokyo with HKG/Tokyo-NA west coast codeshare on CX/Japan airlines.

I am interested in finding out what others feel are the low hanging fruits that IT can grab once it joins the alliance.

http://business-standard.com/india/n...rline-alliance-in-february/459077/

Quote:
Joining oneworld will give Kingfisher Airlines, which is reeling from a cash crunch and has grounded several of its planes, global visibility and scope to improve revenue by leveraging its schedule.

Kingfisher was expecting at least a five per cent rise in revenue through code-share agreements with partner airlines, an airline official said. “There will be cost savings too through common use of inventories and joint purchases,” he said. Kingfisher had signed a code-share agreement with British Airways in September 2010.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:00 am

As I said in yesterday's blog post, there is a good chance that they won't be around long enough to join the alliance.
Honestly, I hope that they are gone by next year. The Indian industry really needs the deficit of capacity if any of the airlines want to even come close to breaking even... It's a sad state of affairs unfortunately.
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AirIndia
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:17 am

aeroblogger: nice to see you joined a.net long before internet was born.......... ;P
 
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RobK
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:24 am

I thought Kingfisher Airlines were dead? Didn't they have a bunch of A320s repossessed just recently ?

  
 
LAXDESI
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:25 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 1):
As I said in yesterday's blog post, there is a good chance that they won't be around long enough to join the alliance.

I expect IT to survive with a much altered ownership structure.

Assuming it does survive and joins OW, I am interested in strategic analysis for IT going forward.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:33 am

Quoting AirIndia (Reply 2):
aeroblogger: nice to see you joined a.net long before internet was born.......... ;P

Yeah, not sure why that is. I'm sure it'll get fixed eventually  
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 4):

I expect IT to survive with a much altered ownership structure.

Assuming it does survive and joins OW, I am interested in strategic analysis for IT going forward.

I'm not willing to predict whether IT will be around in February or not. I feel that their future is basically out of their hands and into the hands of the Indian bureaucracy, and I'm sure you know how unpredictable the bureaucracy is...
They might stick it out, they might go down in flames, I don't know... However, going down in flames is a very real possibility. Just yesterday, it came out that 15 of IT's planes are grounded. Pretty soon, they are going to be dealing with repo... They've gone from "Fly The Good Times" to some really tough turbulence, now it'll be interesting to see what the final result is.
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Asiaflyer
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:36 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 1):
As I said in yesterday's blog post, there is a good chance that they won't be around long enough to join the alliance.
Honestly, I hope that they are gone by next year.


Why these harsh words about IT?
Much better to let the entrepreneurs be successful than supporting the outdated and gravely incompetent company called Air India which should have been closed long ago.

Looks like more help can be around the corner for IT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...her-aircraft-idUSLNE7BI01D20111219
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alangirvan
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:37 am

Interesting alliance possibilities in this part of the world.

In the last few years Qantas and JetAirways have had the codeshare arrangement, so this will change to a Qantas/Jetstar arrangement with Kingfisher. But Malaysia Airlines is also supposed to be joining, OW - so we would expect some joint operations between Malaysia and India. Malaysia Airlines already provides a lot of capacity between Australia and India - IT could codeshare one the MH services, and provide more of their own flights to KUL. This would strengthen KUL as a hub in competition to SIN.

Kingfisher to have big plans to operate Ultra Long Haul services - if they still had A345s, Bangalore-MEL-SYD might have been a possibility.

If a codeshare goes ahead, does this mean that Qantas and Jetstar will serve Kingfisher beer on board?
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:45 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 6):
Why these harsh words about IT?
Much better to let the entrepreneurs be successful than supporting the outdated and gravely incompetent company called Air India which should have been closed long ago.

Comparing IT and AI isn't a fair comparison. AI is a government run job creation program. They have every incentive in the world to INCREASE spending, because that stimulates the economy. Making a profit is not really that big of a concern to them. Is AI run badly? Yes, no doubt. But it's on a completely different playing field.

IT has some of the most incompetent airline execs in India. 6E, SG have been demonstrating how an airline in India should be run. Even Deccan, back when it was around, was well managed. IT execs have managed to destroy their brand through Kingfisher Red and a lack of reliability recently. 9W has also been a bit of a mess between 9W, 9Wk, and S2, but they've been doing much, much better than IT.

And add the fact that VM pulled out some of his cash from IT to finance F1, you have to wonder where they are going to get capital from in the future...
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Asiaflyer
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:40 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 8):
Comparing IT and AI isn't a fair comparison.


I mostly agree with your entire post, also that IT could have been much better managed, BUT as long as AI is around, a fair competition is not possible.
To get the Indian aviation market developing, AI should throw in the towel and IT, 9W, Indigo, etc, etc should get a fair chance to prosper.
Not all of them might be successful anyway, but thats a different story.  
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Centre
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:57 am

Doesn't One World have enough financially troubled members as it is? most of them that is..
Do they need more weight on their shoulders?
OW has some of the most prestigious airlines in the world... It's unfortunate to see it going through this hardship.
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:06 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 9):
To get the Indian aviation market developing, AI should throw in the towel

I guess we agree except for this point. Your perspective seems to be that because AI is on a different playing field, they should shut down so that they aren't interfering. My dream is for AI to be a flag carrier that I can be proud of, like what Turks think of TK or Thai people think of TG... AI has the potential to be great, and I'd rather have them as one of the great airlines of the world than have them shut down to get out of the way of the likes of 9W and IT.

Then again, I prefer that they don't become too good - Currently, I love the low prices and guarenteed middle seats 
Quoting Centre (Reply 10):
Doesn't One World have enough financially troubled members as it is? most of them that is..
Do they need more weight on their shoulders?
OW has some of the most prestigious airlines in the world... It's unfortunate to see it going through this hardship.

I made this exact point on my blog post about this... The link is on my profile (click my username).

Also, there is a pretty heated thread on this exact topic going on right here at a.net a couple threads down...
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abrelosojos
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:17 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 8):
IT has some of the most incompetent airline execs in India. 6E, SG have been demonstrating how an airline in India should be run. Even Deccan, back when it was around, was well managed. IT execs have managed to destroy their brand through Kingfisher Red and a lack of reliability recently. 9W has also been a bit of a mess between 9W, 9Wk, and S2, but they've been doing much, much better than IT.

= I don't think this is entirely fair. IT's top guy (Mr. SA) is pretty outstanding and had a great track record at SG and before. I don't think you can blame him for the mess he inherited. However, IT's mid/upper management have no ability to think for themselves - some of the VP's I have met are entirely clueless - and basically run an operation deferring to VM more than is needed.

Saludos,
A.
Live, and let live.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:39 am

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 12):
= I don't think this is entirely fair. IT's top guy (Mr. SA) is pretty outstanding and had a great track record at SG and before. I don't think you can blame him for the mess he inherited. However, IT's mid/upper management have no ability to think for themselves - some of the VP's I have met are entirely clueless - and basically run an operation deferring to VM more than is needed.

Saludos,
A.

Sure, there are some talented execs, but far too many are incompetent. Those few people who know what they are doing can't possibly run an entire airline by themselves...
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Cysafan
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:48 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 11):

If you are talking about making AI a great flag carrier that the Indians are proud of , I think you are going a bit way too far for now as you can see they are fully owned by the Indian government. AI , being state-owned for too long is no good for the airline 's future as you can see they are struggling and thinking money is not an issue at all because they know the government will push cash into their bank accounts. I think the only way AI can be the pride and joy of India will be privatizing it and stop being fully state-owned. By privatizing it , AI can strategize new ways to earn money on its own rather than asking the state for support. That 's my opinion. Others have their own opinion as well. Welcome aboard btw to this friendly forum.

[Edited 2011-12-20 01:43:54]
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:06 am

Quoting cysafan (Reply 14):
If you are talking about making AI a great flag carrier that the Indians are proud of , I think you are going a bit way too far for now as you can see they are fully owned by the Indian government. AI , being state-owned for too long is no good for the airline 's future as you can see they are struggling and thinking money is not an issue at all because they know the government will push cash into their bank accounts. I think the only way AI can be the pride and joy of India will be privatizing it and stop being fully state-owned. By privatizing it , AI can strategize new ways to earn money on its own rather than asking the state for support. That 's my opinion. Others have their own opinion as well.

I agree with this too. A privatization + a cash infusion by the Indian government to get AI back into order would be the idea solution. I guess I'll just have to keep dreaming though  
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india1
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:12 am

@ Aeroblogger - welcome aboard!
You - and me - can dream on about AI being our nation's standard bearer, but reality is that with the sorry bunch of jokers we have in the govt running AI, it just aint gonna happen! Can you really really imagine them even thinking of selling a piece to say, Ratan Tata? It will mean an end to all the freebies that the babus and their families get.
As for IT, its sad how VJM and his vanity have run it to the ground. They had a great product, a very strong brand and now, sadly its come to this! Their service was like that of the Damania (would you remember from the 90s?) of old. Pity but that's the way the cookie has crumbled.
Dunno if it will die though, I think it'll probably take on a new avatar with change in ownership. In its current form, sadly, IT is beyond repair, whether they join OneWorld or not.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:32 am

Quoting india1 (Reply 16):
@ Aeroblogger - welcome aboard!
You - and me - can dream on about AI being our nation's standard bearer, but reality is that with the sorry bunch of jokers we have in the govt running AI, it just aint gonna happen! Can you really really imagine them even thinking of selling a piece to say, Ratan Tata? It will mean an end to all the freebies that the babus and their families get.
As for IT, its sad how VJM and his vanity have run it to the ground. They had a great product, a very strong brand and now, sadly its come to this! Their service was like that of the Damania (would you remember from the 90s?) of old. Pity but that's the way the cookie has crumbled.
Dunno if it will die though, I think it'll probably take on a new avatar with change in ownership. In its current form, sadly, IT is beyond repair, whether they join OneWorld or not.

Thanks for the kind welcome  

Indeed, you are right about AI. Gov't ownership is here to stay, simply because of the corruption opportunities that it creates. And the sad thing is that almost nothing can be done about it  

I'm not old enough to remember if I ever flew on Damania, or whether I enjoyed the experience. I've heard great things though...

I'm not sure whether IT is quite beyond repair yet though.... There are some steps that could be taken to salvage the airline. For example, a good start would be to appoint me as CEO and give me a massive bonus   
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cricket
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:15 am

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 12):
= I don't think this is entirely fair. IT's top guy (Mr. SA) is pretty outstanding and had a great track record at SG and before. I don't think you can blame him for the mess he inherited. However, IT's mid/upper management have no ability to think for themselves - some of the VP's I have met are entirely clueless - and basically run an operation deferring to VM more than is needed.

Saludos,
A.

Hmmm, you should hear what some of us hear about Mr.Aggarwal at SG and why Kalanithi fired him.

The biggest problem with IT is Vijay Mallya, his hair-brained ideas drove IT to the ground. More than half their fleet isn't flying right now - several ATR's are grounded in Chennai, they are in fights with a lot of creditors, in fact their debt doesn't include what they owe several of their creditors
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blooBirdie
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:47 pm

Breaking news from Reuters: More trouble for India's Kingfisher over tax

Quote:
NEW DELHI, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Cash-strapped Indian carrier Kingfisher Airlines has not deposited with the government most of the income tax it deducted from its employees' salaries for the last two fiscal years, junior finance minister told lawmakers on Tuesday.



More at the link...
 
hohd
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:35 pm

Many do not want AI to fail completely, but the subsidies have to be cut gradually and the fares should be right sized so that Kingfisher and other airlines can compete fairly. Also if AI is getting heavy subsidies then KF has a right to ask for GoI backed loans. I think in the short term some loans to KF should be considered for the airline to get through this crisis.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:29 pm

Fares are already right sized. The subsidies mainly cover the bloated payroll of AI, which are govt sanctioned since AI functions as a job creation program. If the GoI wants to cut subsidies, they have to cut jobs too, so subsidies aren't going anywhere

IT has no "right" to be asking for cash from GoI. GoI owns AI, therefore AI is just asking for cash from its parent company. IT is asking for a bailout, a completely different story. Regardless I'm not too optimistic on them managing to get through the crisis. The article in the post before yours about the tax issues show that
a)IT has been in a cash crunch for at least 2 years without being able to get any respite, and
2)Their finances are worse than originally expected.

This isn't looking too good at all...
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SATexan
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:32 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
AA could reschedule its ORD-DEL flight to provide more convenient connection to other points in India with IT's domestic network.

AFAIK AA has already rescheduled its flight to arrive in DEL at 5:45 PM Local time. Its been this way since Summer IIRC.
 
cricket
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:43 pm

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 21):
IT has no "right" to be asking for cash from GoI. GoI owns AI, therefore AI is just asking for cash from its parent company. IT is asking for a bailout, a completely different story. Regardless I'm not too optimistic on them managing to get through the crisis. The article in the post before yours about the tax issues show that
a)IT has been in a cash crunch for at least 2 years without being able to get any respite, and
2)Their finances are worse than originally expected.

Incidentally, IT's debt is what it owes the banks, not counting what it owes the leasing companies, the catering companies, the oil companies, the ground handling companies, the tax authorities, the AAI, the private airports and so on and so forth. If IT was properly audited total debts and dues will probably be double what is being disclosed. Mallya doesn't have that kind of money.
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aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:48 pm

Quoting Cricket (Reply 23):

Incidentally, IT's debt is what it owes the banks, not counting what it owes the leasing companies, the catering companies, the oil companies, the ground handling companies, the tax authorities, the AAI, the private airports and so on and so forth. If IT was properly audited total debts and dues will probably be double what is being disclosed. Mallya doesn't have that kind of money.

Absolutely. Unless IT manages to get a lot of debt forgiven and the rest of the debt put on a fairly slow payment schedule, they just aren't going to have the cash to keep going. Debt forgiveness and slow payment schedules are possibly though, so it may not be quite the end yet...
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:50 pm

As long as AI is on a different playing field, all of Indian aviation and the Indian economy will suffer.   India needs to sign new bilaterals to expand trade. Aviation is only one part of those bilaterals but will hold up the whole process. For example, with Korea they are diverting automotive part production elsewhere due to the difficulty in flying engineers to and from India (mostly MAA).

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
MAA would be a nice point in India for one-stop flights to Australia as there would be no backtracking.

With the new expansion, I could see MAA becoming a global hub with the initial service being a OneWorld Hub. Oh wait, that would require India to open up more rights to OneWorld airlines. In other words, open the bilaterals... As long as AI is being protected will that happen?   

In my opinion the MAA replacement Greenfield airport shouldn't be shelved but rather accelerated. MAA should be a 4 runway hub. Oh wait, the cash for that is going to AI.  
Quoting AirIndia (Reply 2):
aeroblogger: nice to see you joined a.net long before internet was born.......... ;P

Welcome to a.net aeroblogger. Bummer you didn't join a.net before the 'summer of love.'  
Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 5):
I'm not willing to predict whether IT will be around in February or not. I feel that their future is basically out of their hands and into the hands of the Indian bureaucracy, and I'm sure you know how unpredictable the bureaucracy is...

I would agree with this. But this is true of all Indian aviation until AI is allowed to fail. It isn't just the bilaterals, it is the health of the other airlines due to the AI subsidies. I would much rather see 9W become the unofficial flag carrier of India.

AI being protected has resulted in it being slow. Too slow to join *A. (How many years to complete a process 9W was ready for in less than 4 months?!?) AI should have crushed EK. The 'home field advantage' should have allowed DEL to be the mega-hub of the region. Instead, lack of adaption, due to GOI codling, just makes the situation worse every year.

The corruption Aeroblogger mentioned means that AI's costs are so high it is only viable if air travel to/from India is tightly constrained. Besides opening up the trade bilateral with Korea, India should be in further discussions with Australia, Singapore, the UAE (the largest trade partner for India, in particular for expansion of the Chemical industries which will cost air travel rights), Germany, Hong Kong, and probably a dozen others.

In order to have DEL and MAA (perhaps BLR and HYD too) become mega-hubs, India will also have to expand air travel rights to Africa and the smaller countries of Asia.

I have neglected discussion on the bulk of China as there seems to be 'bad blood' between the two nations that is inhibiting the growth of both. Is that 'bad blood' also part of protecting AI? I do not know. What I do know is that if DEL/MAA and other Indian airports used the funds currently subsidizing AI to expand, we would see a shift of some of the mid-east hubbing to Indian airports. But in the name of protecting AI, the bilateral rights as well as infrastructure isn't being built fast enough to make that a reality.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 11):
Your perspective seems to be that because AI is on a different playing field, they should shut down so that they aren't interfering. My dream is for AI to be a flag carrier that I can be proud of, like what Turks think of TK or Thai people think of TG... AI has the potential to be great

AI has tremendous potential. If they had a far better information technology infrastructure and instead of subsidies the Indian government had built airport infrastructure (including ground transportation), they would be unstoppable.

Quoting hohd (Reply 20):
Many do not want AI to fail completely, but the subsidies have to be cut gradually and the fares should be right sized so that Kingfisher and other airlines can compete fairly.

At this point it is too late for that scenario. Either AI or IT will fail.   I do not want either to fail, but that is the situation.

We could have an Eastern/Pan Am situation where both have hidden so much debt that neither is viable.   

Quoting blooBirdie (Reply 19):
Breaking news from Reuters: More trouble for India's Kingfisher over tax

Ugh oh... That quantity of missing cash pretty much makes this discussion moot. While it is not much compared to their overall debt, it shows the extremes IT has had to go for cash management.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
vv701
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:52 pm

Quoting SATexan (Reply 22):
AFAIK AA has already rescheduled its flight to arrive in DEL at 5:45 PM Local time.

Correct. AA292 departs ORD at 15:40 and, after a 14hr 35min flight, is scheduled at DEL at 17:45 the following day.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:03 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 25):
I have neglected discussion on the bulk of China as there seems to be 'bad blood' between the two nations that is inhibiting the growth of both. Is that 'bad blood' also part of protecting AI? I do not know. What I do know is that if DEL/MAA and other Indian airports used the funds currently subsidizing AI to expand, we would see a shift of some of the mid-east hubbing to Indian airports. But in the name of protecting AI, the bilateral rights as well as infrastructure isn't being built fast enough to make that a reality.

Nope, this comes from the wars/their continued support of Pakistan. It's a shame really - India and China together would be a formidable force in almost anything...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 25):

At this point it is too late for that scenario. Either AI or IT will fail. I do not want either to fail, but that is the situation.

At this point I think IT is going to fail. I sincerely hope that AI will take this opportunity and actually improve itself. It has been making great strides recently...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 25):

In other words, open the bilaterals...

Open Skies with the USA has been a great start... I do hope that it continues. On the same token, I hope that the bilaterals that they negotiate are fair. There was an interesting (albeit depressing) article in the Caravan Magazine recently which said that the bilats are being sold for cash... Knowing India's corruption, this is all too likely unfortunately. Far too many bilats are structured to the disadvantage of the Indian carrier, even though it harms AI.
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Gr8Circle
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:23 pm

Quoting cysafan (Reply 14):
I think you are going a bit way too far for now as you can see they are fully owned by the Indian government.
Quoting cysafan (Reply 14):
I think the only way AI can be the pride and joy of India will be privatizing it and stop being fully state-owned.

Bear in mind that AI has been a fully govt owned company since the early 1950's....yet, in the 60's and 70's, AI was one of the most highly rated airlines in the world, but only because the man at the helm was JRD Tata, the original founder of the airline and owner of a large private sector group of companies....he set high standards for the airline and made sure they were maintained......after he was pushed out of AI in the late 70's or 80's, the decline started.....so, even as a govt company, they were able to reach heights (pun unintended).....

Quoting india1 (Reply 16):
Can you really really imagine them even thinking of selling a piece to say, Ratan Tata?

If the GoI found the courage and will to do something like that, there's still hope.....else, they'll only go further downwards......
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:50 pm

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 27):
Open Skies with the USA has been a great start...

Yes it has.   

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 27):
On the same token, I hope that the bilaterals that they negotiate are fair. There was an interesting (albeit depressing) article in the Caravan Magazine recently which said that the bilats are being sold for cash... Knowing India's corruption, this is all too likely unfortunately. Far too many bilats are structured to the disadvantage of the Indian carrier, even though it harms AI.

Bilaterals are not just for airlines and in general the Indian bilaterals limit both sides to the same number of flights and seats. So how is that to the disadvantage of the Indian carrier? Yes, EK owns more large aircraft, but I'm certain AI could fill 747s from DEL and BOM.

The #1 bilateral that is complained about is with Dubai. Yet that bilateral allowed the Indian chemical industry to expand greatly into the mid-east. Now those same chemical companies are not expanding jobs as they should due to the bilateral cap. Dubai is not about to expand the bilateral for chemical industries as long as India will not expand the bilateral on flights. If you think the bilateral on the chemical industry is restricting Indian job growth, it is of the same order of magnatude as the Pharma bilateral with Dubai/UAE.

We could then talk South Korea where India wants to make more auto parts for them. However, the Korean government is not about to expand that bilateral without other parts (not just aviation, it is food, pharma, chemical, software, and micro chip industries). The lack of expansion of the South Korean/India bilateral is costing the region around MAA about ten thousand direct jobs!    That's ok. Thailand and Indonesia were willing to open their bilater with South Korea, so there is no rush for South Korea (other the the impact of the floods).

One issue I have with a.net is the bilaterals are looked at through one industry and not through the national scope. The US/India bilateral is very open in both aviation and other industries. The bigger picture is showing that India is dramatically hurting its job growth, in particular in higher wage jobs, buy trying to put in clauses to protect AI.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 27):
At this point I think IT is going to fail.

Sadly I must agree. While I have flown neither airline, from my friends' experience, IT would be there perfered survivor. I'm convinced that IT failing will only grant AI six months of breathing room. Considering their inability to reform for *A in years, I doubt enough will happen in six months before 9W, Spicejet, Indigo, and others reduce AI back to where they are today.

One thing I do not understand about AI is their lack of reform. The pace is glacial. While they are changing, the reality is the competition, excluding IT, is changing faster. Hence why their losses are huge. To be viable, they must bring down their wage bill by 20% to 35%!   

http://articles.economictimes.indiat..._air-india-vyalar-ravi-prabhat-jha

Using those numbers, that is a little over $1.4Billion USD loss. AI must cut quickly to turn the tide as they are bringing down the entire Indian aviation market.

Again, if IT fails, it will only give AI six months of breathing room.

Quoting gr8circle (Reply 28):
Quoting india1 (Reply 16):
Can you really really imagine them even thinking of selling a piece to say, Ratan Tata?

If the GoI found the courage and will to do something like that, there's still hope.....else, they'll only go further downwards......

Then there would be a chance for AI. Otherwise, they will reform slower than the competition.

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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:09 am

Let Kingfisher fly ORD-DEL and have AA move to ORD-BOM. Win - win for all!
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:45 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 26):
Quoting SATexan (Reply 22):AFAIK AA has already rescheduled its flight to arrive in DEL at 5:45 PM Local time.
Correct. AA292 departs ORD at 15:40 and, after a 14hr 35min flight, is scheduled at DEL at 17:45 the following day.

Thanks for the info. This schedule does provide opportunities for many one-stop USA-DEL and India-ORD connections.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 30):
Let Kingfisher fly ORD-DEL and have AA move to ORD-BOM. Win - win for all!

IT has no aircraft that can cover the range of DEL-ORD non-stop. ORD-BOM, with its large O&D potential, on AA metal(77W) in the future is a possibility.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 27):At this point I think IT is going to fail.
Sadly I must agree.

I wonder if the Indian bankruptcy laws allow the sale of operating license along with international flying rights to an investor. The lenders, who also own substantial equity from conversion of some debt, have an incentive to work with an investor to salvage some value if IT is to be liquidated.

I can imagine a scenario where IAG(26%) along with a local investor buys majority of the IT shares.
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:44 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):

Sadly I must agree. While I have flown neither airline, from my friends' experience, IT would be there perfered survivor.

Maybe a couple years ago. I've been flying both airlines for 5 or 6 years now, and there is no doubt in my mind that AI>>>>>>IT in almost any respect nowadays. When IT was a startup, establishing its brand, it was the other way around. However, everything from service standards to reliability have been crashing long before their financial troubles came to light.

AI has a worse reputation than it truly deserves, while IT has a much better one. It takes a long time for perceptions to change...


As for those who keep saying "privatization is the only way to success," I guess I disagree with that as well. The fact that it is gov't owned isn't as major of an issue compared to the fact that the leadership at AI isn't very good. Yet, I assure you that the leadership is leaps and bounds ahead of IT...
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:19 am

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...e-flights/articleshow/11192690.cms

Things just keep getting worse and worse for them...

Quote:
Read more on »Kingfisher Airlines|kingfisher|Directorate General of Civil Aviation|DGCA|Civil Aviation Minister|Ajit Singh|Air India
Kingfisher airlines was not operating 175 of the 418 daily departure flights approved for it during winter schedule 2011 leading to cancellation of its slots.

"Directorate General of Civil Aviation ( DGCA) has issued letters to Kingfisher for violation of Rule 140 A of aircraft Rules 1937," Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh said in reply to a question in the Lok Sabha today.

"Kingfisher Airlines has informed that they have initiated reconfiguration of their aircraft due to which some of their aircraft are out of service for a few weeks," Singh told the House.

The slots alloted to Kingfisher had been cancelled, the Minister said.
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:42 am

Half of the fleet grounded, frozen bank accounts, ... It seems that problems just keep on popping-up for them. I'd be very surprised if they make it past 2012 in the current form.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 32):
The fact that it is gov't owned isn't as major of an issue compared to the fact that the leadership at AI isn't very good.

It's a shame, really. State-owned airlines like AI should be the most powerful airlines of all, they have all the predispositions. Yet, most of them seem to fail and become holes without bottoms financially. I guess that's just how things play out...
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:08 pm

If they make it past February, they might stand a chance... alliance feed/alliance FFP can't be underestimated.

However, I would not be surprised in the slightest if they never join OW after all...
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:43 pm

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 32):
Maybe a couple years ago. I've been flying both airlines for 5 or 6 years now, and there is no doubt in my mind that AI>>>>>>IT in almost any respect nowadays. When IT was a startup, establishing its brand, it was the other way around. However, everything from service standards to reliability have been crashing long before their financial troubles came to light.

Very true......last year I flew on both AI and IT.....AI on a domestic sector in India (A319) and IT on an international sector (A332)......the AI flight was extremely satisfying and good on all fronts.....the IT flight was a downright dissappointment.....

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 32):
AI has a worse reputation than it truly deserves, while IT has a much better one. It takes a long time for perceptions to change...

  
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:35 pm

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 32):
AI has a worse reputation than it truly deserves, while IT has a much better one. It takes a long time for perceptions to change...

Interesting. I will have to ask those who have flown AI recently. Unfortunatley, *every* person I know who has flown AI in the last 7 years swore they wouldn't fly them again. So it simply might be too late among my circle of friends.  
(Note: I don't take them all seriously, one tells me about a problem on this or that airline and it doesn't help the conversation to remind him he swore not to fly that airline again last year...)

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 33):
Kingfisher airlines was not operating 175 of the 418 daily departure flights approved for it during winter schedule 2011 leading to cancellation of its slots.

Gulp... How does one recover from that? Large gift baskets?  
Quoting PezySPU (Reply 34):
State-owned airlines like AI should be the most powerful airlines of all, they have all the predispositions. Yet, most of them seem to fail and become holes without bottoms financially.

The problem is the difficulty running a state-owned airline as a business versus 'something else.' State run companies rarely adapt quickly enough. AI has all it needs, but how to change it quickly?

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 35):
If they make it past February, they might stand a chance... alliance feed/alliance FFP can't be underestimated.

But it can be estimated as an approximately 8% growth in revenue.  

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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:24 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 37):
But it can be estimated as an approximately 8% growth in revenue.

Lightsaber

I don't agree.

Currently, IT's load factors are around 30%. Joining an alliance will have a much larger impact on them than it would to an airline with already healthy ops.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 37):
Interesting. I will have to ask those who have flown AI recently. Unfortunatley, *every* person I know who has flown AI in the last 7 years swore they wouldn't fly them again. So it simply might be too late among my circle of friends.
(Note: I don't take them all seriously, one tells me about a problem on this or that airline and it doesn't help the conversation to remind him he swore not to fly that airline again last year...)

I'm sure that if they tried IT today, it would be the next on the "never fly again" list. AI's domestic product is above competition, and their international J product is one of the best in the skies (I'd say its in the league of LX and AC hard product wise, and you can't beat Indian hospitality  )
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:08 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
Considering their inability to reform for *A in years

Just curious, If AI are unable to reform for Star, how on earth will IT comply for OW? Surely such an airline would not be looked upon by an alliance - or would they? Thinking MX, AR, JP...
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:36 am

AI diverted all of its resources merging AI and IC for the few years after they were invited to *A, and that's why they weren't able to comply in a timely manner. This year, when *A gave its final deadline, they moved the resources back, and managed to comply in time. *A then proceeded to screw AI over and "suspend" the application.
IT has been working on OW alliance membership for a while now, and I think they should already be in good shape in terms of complying with membership requirements.
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:24 am

Speaking of IT, I just tried to fly IT domestically last Monday and after being jerked around with schedule changes and last minute flight cancellations, they have successfully managed to move me to the "never again" category. Finally I abandoned my attempts to fly IT and flew 9W instead.
 
PezySPU
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 10:12 am

Not surprising if you consider that 15 of their aircraft were grounded. Or was that before the grounding?
 
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 10:48 am

Quoting PezySPU (Reply 42):
Not surprising if you consider that 15 of their aircraft were grounded. Or was that before the grounding?

It's not just the grounding. IT is cancelling routes with multiple frequencies a day and consolidating to 1 or 2 flights. This is because they:
1) Can't afford to operate multiple flights
2) Don't have the planes to operate the flights (groundings)
3) Load factors are low enough to combine multiple flights into 1 flight.
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:33 pm

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 30):
Let Kingfisher fly ORD-DEL and have AA move to ORD-BOM. Win - win for all!

With what? They never took up the A345's? Better still if the LHR and HKG flight timings are well managed (if the 332's keep on flying) they can better co-ordinate schedules with AA/BA at LHR and CX at HKG
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:47 pm

Also, with what equipment can AA serve ORD-BOM? I thought they were pushing their fleet to the max range-wise with ORD-DEL already...
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:20 pm

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 39):
Just curious, If AI are unable to reform for Star, how on earth will IT comply for OW?

We are talking IT.   It is the information technology portion (code-share, ticket sales, seat availability checking, etc.) that takes the most work.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 38):
Currently, IT's load factors are around 30%. Joining an alliance will have a much larger impact on them than it would to an airline with already healthy ops.

Considering the typical ratio of domestic/regional traffic to long haul, 8% revenue increase is probably about right for IT joining OW for the first 18 months or so. OW will still be competing with *A moving butts to India and only those flying within India will benefit IT.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 40):
This year, when *A gave its final deadline, they moved the resources back, and managed to comply in time.


From WSJ (why does a.net mess up thier links?)

I can confirm Star Alliance has suspended our membership," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "On July 30 we got a letter from Star Alliance's chief project officer saying everything was in order for our joining and just some formalities are left."

Star Alliance said the decision to suspend Air India was taken by its full executive board on July 31, though its members would continue to provide "assistance" to the airline.

One stumbling block has been the grouping's belief that the Indian market was large enough to support two local members, with Jet Airways (India) Ltd. cited by analysts as another potential partner.

India's Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. is in the process of joining the Oneworld airline grouping, while SkyTeam--the third of the global trio--has indicated its desire to recruit an Indian member. "

There seems to be a disconnect. I heard rumors that AI wasn't fully integrated to *A's computer network. But either way, 40+ months into a 12 month process is too long. All indications are that 9W could join within 30 to 60 days!   

For all I know, *A did a last minute audit of AI that AI failed... I know of a few (non-airline) business deals that were trashed for that reason.

If IT is really performing as badly as some have blogged here... They have more to worry about than an alliance.

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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:54 am

It costs a lot of money to integrate and maintain a new airline into a global alliance, this is one of the reasons Aer Lingus decided to leave Oneworld as it decided that the alliance as a whole did not provide enough value for the investment it placed in it.

So for Kingfisher to still be considering this when they are basically on their knees suggests to me that this is a last ditch marketing attempt to win advance bookings from OW FF members!
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:02 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 46):

One stumbling block has been the grouping's belief that the Indian market was large enough to support two local members, with Jet Airways (India) Ltd. cited by analysts as another potential partner.

This.

The compliance officer signed off that AI had met the requirements, but *A told AI that if they don't let 9W in too, their application would be rejected. That's the rumor anyway. To be honest, if that is true, I'm glad AI didn't give in. Being blackmailed by an alliance is unnacceptable.
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RE: Kingfisher To Join One World On Feb.10, 2012

Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:28 am

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 48):
The compliance officer signed off that AI had met the requirements, but *A told AI that if they don't let 9W in too, their application would be rejected. That's the rumor anyway. To be honest, if that is true, I'm glad AI didn't give in. Being blackmailed by an alliance is unnacceptable.

Sounds like a very loose rumor, as *A could still invite 9W into the alliance after AI entered.

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 41):
I just tried to fly IT domestically last Monday and after being jerked around with schedule changes and last minute flight cancellations, they have successfully managed to move me to the "never again" category.

That probably sums up ITs largest problem now. People have lost their trust in IT and chooses other carriers.

Quoting AeroBlogger (Reply 38):
Currently, IT's load factors are around 30%.

Terrible number and natural consequence of all cancelled flights.
Feels like IT is in a death spiral.
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