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LAXintl
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Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:13 pm

$16.2mil operating profit, with resultant $3.3mil net loss much on 86% increase in fuel expenses year over year.

Good yield and RASM growth.

Received $150mil in new financing.

Press release:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Virgin...s-Third-prnews-2925612870.html?x=0

=
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
hatbutton
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:43 pm

An operating profit is great to hear. But what is their total debt load up to now? I can understand that they're likely waiting it out to take on new planes and grow to reach a scale where they start seeing returns. But that's an awful lot of interest to continue paying each year.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Operating income down 23% YOY, net income down 144% YOY, net income YTD 'up' 60% to -$70MM

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 1):
I can understand that they're likely waiting it out to take on new planes and grow to reach a scale where they start seeing returns.

If their first dozen+/- markets are this 'good', makes you wonder how the next round will improve things

[Edited 2011-12-21 13:55:29]
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lightsaber
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:25 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
$16.2mil operating profit, with resultant $3.3mil net loss

A good result. I'm a fan of the net profit being in the black, but considering how tough things are... Not bad.

I would like to see more than $24M in unrestricted cash... But it is enough for now.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):
If their first dozen+/- markets are this 'good', makes you wonder how the next round will improve things

Eventually growth helps retain and gain customers. If VX is able to manage their cost growth, even less viable markets should be more profitable. A 6% operating margin isn't great. I suspect some of that is AA at DFW trying to stop VX.

Lightsaber
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LAXintl
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:14 pm

As I have said here many times, the cash position of VX is not comparable to others as they are private company.

VX cash has always been relative low, and regardless of the loss they incur stays in the same general range. (posted below)

Just like Spirit when they were private, the owners would backfill the coffers as needed and kept actual cash on hand at the airline to a relative low amount.

For those focused on cash here is what the end of quarters numbers have been for the last few years:

1Q9 - $38m
2Q9 - $28m
3Q9 - $23m
4Q9 - $22m
1Q10 - $28m
2Q10 - $26m
3Q10 - $25m
4Q10 - $30m
1Q11 - $25m
2Q11 - $26m
3Q11 - $24m


At the end of the day, the results are rather positive imo.
For fun looking at them, if fuel had remained at last years cost, they would have shown $33mil higher earnings - a nifty profit figure for a small airline.
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:40 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
For fun looking at them, if fuel had remained at last years cost, they would have shown $33mil higher earnings - a nifty profit figure for a small airline.



"Yeah, well if a frog had wings it wouldn't bump it's ass a-hoppin'!" - Nathan Arizona

The fact of the matter is that fuel didn't remain at last year's cost, and they're going to continue to need to shore up their RASM numbers to stay in the game. Good job to the people of VX for the operating profit, but it's too early to call them successful.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

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BlueBus
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:53 pm

I wonder how much damage VX has done to other airlines.

You have this airline that provides the best domestic product and is able to compete with pricing with other airlines. Those other airlines need to lower their prices or up their product to compete. Problem is where other airlines are needing to worry about this thing called "profit" VX is able to continue to run with out it.
 
JHCRJ700
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:03 am

Quoting bluebus (Reply 6):
You have this airline that provides the best domestic product and is able to compete with pricing with other airlines

Without a doubt there are the best bang for you buck in the US. I'm really pulling for them and hope to see them grow exponentially in the future. I wish I had to fly to the west coast more often. If they flew to destinations here in the Northeast they would be the only airline I flew on!
RUSH
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:03 am

Quoting bluebus (Reply 6):
Problem is where other airlines are needing to worry about this thing called "profit" VX is able to continue to run with out it.

What exactly is up with that? They seem to find investors that must be star-struck to invest with Branson. To be honest he reminds me more and more of Donald Trump...a self-promoting blowhard.

Everyone except AA showed big net profits in the third quarter. Yet again VX continues to lose money...this in the best quarter of the year. Everyone else had to buy fuel too so VX's excuse for a net loss is a load of you-know-what. If they can't make money with a load factor of 84% then something is seriously wrong with this airline.

[Edited 2011-12-21 16:05:27]
 
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:34 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 8):
If they can't make money with a load factor of 84% then something is seriously wrong with this airline.

Well, they are still new and still growing. Maybe the idea of getting people to fly them, know what they offer and then raise prices? I mean I normally find the cheapest ticket possible, but if I have the choice between VX or some crappy regional airliner and $40 diff, I will go VX.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:10 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
if fuel had remained at last years cost, they would have shown $33mil higher earnings - a nifty profit figure for a small airline.

I'm absolutely certain if that were the case the industry would have competed that profit away, and VX would again be at the bottom of the heap.

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 8):
Everyone except AA showed big net profits in the third quarter. Yet again VX continues to lose money...this in the best quarter of the year. Everyone else had to buy fuel too so VX's excuse for a net loss is a load of you-know-what.

  
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
ikramerica
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:59 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
I'm absolutely certain if that were the case the industry would have competed that profit away, and VX would again be at the bottom of the heap.

No, VX flies in a vacuum, dint' you know that?
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hiflyeras
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:02 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
No, VX flies in a vacuum, dint' you know that?

They DO seem to be flying in a vacuum....in their own little world where it's impossible for them to turn a profit, no matter how much their customers 'like' them. And I have a feeling the honeymoon is over.... three months of pissing off your regular customers due to IT problems and then NOT making it right for them http://crankyflier.com says to me this company has major problems.

Other airlines reported much higher Y-O-Y RASM increases (UA/CO 17%, DL 16%, US 15% vs. VX 9%)....why can't VX raise their fares to cover their costs? Or do they even WANT to? It's like dumping...predatory pricing to undercut your competion and deliberately selling your product at a loss. I believe that's illegal if you are exporting goods to another country...but what about an airline who's main promoter (investor?) is not a U.S. citizen?

[Edited 2011-12-21 19:06:02]
 
freakyrat
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:03 am

I'm flying from DFW-LAX in a few weeks on VX. It is my second round trip flight with them this year. The first time I flew with them to SFO the flights out of DFW were about 65-70% full. This time to LAX they are about 90%. When I made my seat selection my DFW-LAX flight had about 14 seats available and coming home on the Monday night flight from LAX they only had about 8 empty seats and only middle ones at that. Given the choice to the west coast at their fares I would rather take VX and be treated as a human being and arrive relaxed.

While waiting in the lineup to take off from SFO-DFW on my previous flight I managed to fall asleep thanks to the wonderful background music and mood lighting.

As far as their computers go, I had no problem booking my flight on line or paying for it. They must have solved the IT problem. Heck Southwest hasn't fixed their IPhone APP calendar yet and their APP is totally useless because of it.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:06 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 8):
To be honest he reminds me more and more of Donald Trump...a self-promoting blowhard.

Having worked for Branson, and having met him on countless occasions I would hardly call him a blowhard.

He's nothing but a down to earth charismatic fella. He might now have ivy league business acumen but he makes up for it which charisma, a marketing knack while surrounding himself with a good cadre of executives.

Personally he's one of the most warn and caring person I've met. More specifically a colleague of mine of having some medical issues with his daughter - out of the blue a few months later Branson shows up and the first thing he did was ask how this girl was doing by name.

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 12):
It's like dumping...predatory pricing to undercut your competion and deliberately selling your product at a loss.

Suggest you read up on the legal terms you are throwing out.

A company with barely 1% of the national market place is doing nothing else than simply "competing".

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 12):
I believe that's illegal if you are exporting goods to another country...but what about an airline who's main promoter (investor?) is not a U.S. citizen?

I guess you did not get the memo. Virgin America is a US company, that employs Americans. Foreign parties only have a minority (less than 25% ) stake in the business.

Btw ironically AMR had some 21.3% of its share in hands of foreign entities or parties. I never heard anyone claim that AA was a foreign controlled company.
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:04 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 14):
Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 12):
It's like dumping...predatory pricing to undercut your competion and deliberately selling your product at a loss.

Suggest you read up on the legal terms you are throwing out.

A company with barely 1% of the national market place is doing nothing else than simply "competing".

It's not predatory, but they ARE throwing good money after bad trying to "buy" market share.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
ghifty
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:48 am

Nice to see VX still posting profits. Nice to see that their somewhat different business model is/has working/ed out.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 5):

That made my night! One of my favorite comedies.
Fly Delta (Wid)Jets
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:24 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 16):
Nice to see VX still posting profits

Not sure what financial reports you're reading? They've never made a profit.
 
freakyrat
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:35 pm

VX is slowly coming around and is getting repeat business. It's pretty simple, Once you try them you will want to fly them again. Their employees treat you like a human being. The planes are outstanding. For us in Texas it is where Muse Air would be today if it were still around.
 
UALWN
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:05 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 17):
They've never made a profit.

They did in Q3 2010, at least. See the report linked by the OP.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:09 pm

Quoting freakyrat (Reply 18):
VX is slowly coming around and is getting repeat business.
Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 12):
And I have a feeling the honeymoon is over....
Quoting bluebus (Reply 9):
Maybe the idea of getting people to fly them, know what they offer and then raise prices?

Has there ever been a carrier that struggled for years on end and then grew to profitability? Most, if not all LCCs start out profitable, if they're lucky, and then come back down to earth, as B6, WN, F9, and FL have recently done.
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drerx7
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:19 pm

I just want them to fly here to Houston...could it be that they are growing too slowly?
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SuperDash
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:27 pm

$24M in cash...a ton of airplanes coming into the fleet (Toronto didn't work out real well for them), loads of maturing markets (and many that T-100 indicates could go Toronto's way) and very few mature markets. Whining about fuel cost when you have the YOUNGEST fleet in the nation (remember the most profitable airline flies nothing by MD80s and 757s). Break-even load factor north of 85% (Summer months only). That number probably grows to near 90-95% in winter months. To make a full 10% on invested capital their load factor needs to be above 95%, if not near or north of 100% on an annual basis. Those are awful numbers. Period.

This is a profile of a carrier that is really struggling. JetBlue had a very high break-even load factor in its infancy. The difference is they exceeded it. And they flew in an under served marketplace (at the time). Tell me what is under served on any route VX is flying or any route they could fly?

Sorry guys, I am not impressed and I second this comment:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
they ARE throwing good money after bad trying to "buy" market share.
 
atrude777
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:20 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
Most, if not all LCCs start out profitable, if they're lucky, and then come back down to earth, as B6, WN, F9, and FL have recently done.

I know you said "most if not all" but since you included WN as an example, Southwest was not profitable from the beginning.

They lost money for the years of 1971, and 1972, and in 1973 finally reached profitability.

.December 31, 1973

Southwest ends 1973 with our first yearly profit!

January 13, 1974

Jan. 13, 1974 Southwest announces its first profitable year was 1973.


http://www.swamedia.com/channels/By-Category/pages/earnings

Jetblue did in fact record a profit from the first year of service I believe.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
PezySPU
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:26 pm

But you said it, SuperDash:

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 22):
a ton of airplanes coming into the fleet, loads of maturing markets and very few mature markets.

All of that equals expense. Once they have tons of aircraft in their fleet instead of tons of aircraft coming, more and mature markets, and when they get better recognized as a brand, I'm sure they'll be fine. For now, they are doing great IMHO. Their service is awesome, prices are low to attract more passengers to try them, LF is high, they are expanding, and as if that's not enough, they are even making an operating profit! VX needs time more than anything.

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 22):

This is a profile of a carrier that is really struggling.

It's also a profile of a new carrier that's trying to rapidly expand in a very competitive environment.

[Edited 2011-12-23 11:27:03]
 
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:34 pm

Quoting PezySPU (Reply 24):
Once they have tons of aircraft in their fleet instead of tons of aircraft coming, more and mature markets, and when they get better recognized as a brand, I'm sure they'll be fine.

Or, their rate of monthly cash burn increases exponentially as the number of loss-inducing routes and flights jumps dramatically. You can have dozens of extra planes coming but if you can't reliably fly them profitably, all you're doing is speeding up your demise.

They need to get their act together from a RASM standpoint before that new lift comes on the property or they're in for a very, very rough time.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
PezySPU
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 25):
Or, their rate of monthly cash burn increases exponentially as the number of loss-inducing routes and flights jumps dramatically.

No, by that time they might already have more profitable routes that will keep things in balance the way they are now.   

This discussion is pointless, there are valid arguments on both sides and none of us know how things are really going to play out. Why don't we just wait and see?   
 
gen2stew
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:11 pm

quoting LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 18189 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted Thu Dec 22 2011 02:06:37 your local time (1 day 12 hours 29 minutes ago) and read 2778 times:

I guess you did not get the memo. Virgin America is a US company, that employs Americans. Foreign parties only have a minority (less than 25% ) stake in the business.



If Branson told anyone in the to company to jump, they would jump. NO QUESTIONS ASKED!

Also people may 'like' the carrier but are they willing to PAY for the privilage of crossing the county on those tricked out busses? Last I heard they were trying to be a LCC. PAX say they "like" : mood lighting, wifi, in-seat entertainment, touch screen ordering... but they LOVE low fares above all else.

[Edited 2011-12-23 12:12:27]
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MaverickM11
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:28 am

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 23):
.December 31, 1973

Southwest ends 1973 with our first yearly profit!

January 13, 1974

Jan. 13, 1974 Southwest announces its first profitable year was 1973.

It's been 4 years now for VX, and whereas WN had an almost endless supply of low hanging fruit. VX has an endless supply of routes whose razor thin profit margin--if there was one to begin with--is long been competed to zero or less.
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RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:45 am

Quoting PezySPU (Reply 26):
none of us know how things are really going to play out. Why don't we just wait and see?

Neither does VX, and that's the problem - "Eff it, let's roll the dice!" is not a way to manage a company's growth.   

VX has committed themselves to growth with these new aircraft, so they have no choice but to find routes for them and hope to God they can turn a profit on them. So far, they haven't been able to reliably do so. That's why established, responsible carriers like AS have flexibility built into their fleet models - there are a ton of new deliveries coming to AS in the next few years, during which time they can:

  • Add net growth to the fleet if the economy and new markets can profitably support them based on their business model


  • or

  • Park / retire aircraft they already own outright and keep fleet growth neutral if the economy tanks or they find there are no profitable growth opportunites


  • By committing to all these new planes, VX is betting the house that they'll be successful, and leaving themselves abolutely no margin for error whatsoever. That's a pretty risky bet when you have been far less than successful so far.
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    SuperDash
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:47 am

    Quoting PezySPU (Reply 24):
    All of that equals expense. Once they have tons of aircraft in their fleet instead of tons of aircraft coming, more and mature markets, and when they get better recognized as a brand, I'm sure they'll be fine. For now, they are doing great IMHO. Their service is awesome, prices are low to attract more passengers to try them, LF is high, they are expanding, and as if that's not enough, they are even making an operating profit! VX needs time more than anything.

    Based on your theory, they have NEW markets coming that will be more profitable than the ones they are flying now (that has to be the case if they are to actually make money on an annual basis). If that's the case, 1) Why aren't they flying them? 2) or the theory is incorrect and the new markets coming are not going to be as profitable as what they are doing.

    They fly the second most cost efficient airplane in the world, so they can't change fleet and dramatically save costs. Labor costs will go up. Landing fees will go up. Delta and United are healthy, American is lowering its costs. They compete directly with JetBlue, Southwest and/or Alaska on almost every routes. How is losing money and having a TON of CAPEX on the books and a tough business plan a good thing?

    Quoting PezySPU (Reply 24):
    It's also a profile of a new carrier that's trying to rapidly expand in a very competitive environment.

    Most carriers that have gone by this strategy end up in Federal Court telling a judge why they screwed up.

    VX will 1) have increasing costs - labor, maintenance as their airplanes need more C-Checks, landing fees, etc, 2) facing legacy carriers that have brought their costs down (add AA to that list), 3) flying in markets that really don't need more capacity, which in turn leads to less revenue per seat.

    So, my bet is... 1) They are already talking to American about who is a good Bankruptcy attorney, 2) Branson gives up and sells out, 3) They shut their growth down and become an airline first. 4) Abandon their strategy, buy Q400s and fly unserved/overpriced regional California markets

    Not convinced the US market needs them, nor that they will change that impression.

    Can't wait to discuss why their horrible Q4 2011 results are a good thing for the airline.
     
    AsianDude
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:27 am

    The usual VX haters who have posted anti-VX propaganda in every VX thread since the airline was announced are busy as usual. It's gotten just as ridiculous as the anti-B6ers claiming they'd never make it, as well as the "who will buy AS" armchair CEOs, and the a.net "fleet managers" declaring when NW/DL will retire their DC9s.

    In passenger survey, after passenger survey, VX keeps winning kudos, plaudits, and awards. VX has said on a number of occasions that 2011 originally had been their year to break even, but only moved that out now to 2012, even though the US has gone thru the worst recession/mini-depression since the advent of modern aviation. VX is doing something right! Passengers love them. If the US economy "only" grows by 2% or 3% this year, and oil prices stay steady or drop slightly, VX will make lots of money this year, as will many of the other airlines, as they finally catch a break.

    The only posters who seem to have an issue with VX are those who fly for other airlines, and thus must feel inadequate or threatened in some way. Sad really. I find management of any industry who is constantly obsessed by their competitors to be wholly lacking in imagination, and managerial skills. After all, in my industry, it's he who is most creative and brings new solution sets to a customer wins big, and we have won big even in this tough economic situation.
     
    hiflyeras
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:50 am

    Quoting AsianDude (Reply 31):
    After all, in my industry, it's he who is most creative and brings new solution sets to a customer wins big, and we have won big even in this tough economic situation.

    In the airline industry, that's not necessarily the case. The airline industry is littered with the remains of companies with innovative products. It doesn't mean they could make a profit.

    If VX can steal market share from UA and AA (as appears to be their goal) AND get their RASM up they might make it. I noticed they just arranged lease financing for future aircraft orders...seems a bit tenuous to be commiting to more aircraft when you can't make a profit with your current routes. I assume they chose those routes because they felt they would be the most successful yet they still lose money. They can fly nearly anywhere...but can they do so at a profit?

    They seem to be repeating the mistakes of others (YYZ against AC, low-yielding CUN, WS fiasco with AND Irtysh-Avia (Kazakhstan)">IT changeover) and basing their airline out of an airport notorious for delays. For them I really don't think it's about making money right now...it's about wearing their competitors down. But they're going up against companies with billions in cash...whereas they need to keep begging investors for more and more to keep afloat.

    Between fuel and debt servicing they're digging a deeper and deeper hole. I saw they plan on starting fuel hedging...not cheap in itself. You can also LOSE money by hedging...ask WN.
     
    NUAir
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 8:17 am

    Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 32):
    Between fuel and debt servicing they're digging a deeper and deeper hole. I saw they plan on starting fuel hedging...not cheap in itself. You can also LOSE money by hedging...ask WN.

    You could start a fuel hedge with $1, although with transaction costs you would need large change in price to benefit. I have worked with companies that have hedging programs over $100 million monitored by a staff of 3 people.

    The main problem with hedging is that you aren't playing in a fair game. When you have bankers like Morgan Stanley and Goldman controlling 80% of the chips at the table and the airlines, trucking companies and other transport companies playing with the other 20% you are just along for the ride. Right now the banks are playing a high stakes game of poker with the commodity markets and will keep calling each others bluffs until they "pop the bubble" and prices take a nose dive. It no longer matters if fundamentals show refineries operating at historically low utilization, demand is flat (including China), large oil deposits being discovered in Brazil, the Gulf and Russia, that Iraq and Libya are now opening up....they still push prices up $10/barrel when Ahmadinejad sneezes.

    Oil and many other commodities haven't followed fundamentals since the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 which allowed the free flow of cash from bankers and investment firms into the commodities markets. I spent years running price regressions on oil vs. supply/demand , GDP and other economic indicators and you see a different world before and after 1999.

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/13/news.../index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin


    Quoting money:
    Virgin America CEO David Cush told Fortune. Cush says that right now the transaction cost for hedging a barrel of fuel runs between $7 and $10 for an airline, a cost he's hopeful will ease with stipulations on greater transparency.
    "How Many Assholes we got on this ship?" - Lord Helmet
     
    gen2stew
    Posts: 136
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:41 pm

    Quating ASIAN DUDE:
    In passenger survey, after passenger survey, VX keeps winning kudos, plaudits, and awards. VX has said on a number of occasions that 2011 originally had been their year to break even, but only moved that out now to 2012, even though the US has gone thru the worst recession/mini-depression since the advent of modern aviation. VX is doing something right! Passengers love them. If the US economy "only" grows by 2% or 3% this year, and oil prices stay steady or drop slightly, VX will make lots of money this year, as will many of the other airlines, as they finally catch a break.

    The only posters who seem to have an issue with VX are those who fly for other airlines, and thus must feel inadequate or threatened in some way. Sad really. I find management of any industry who is constantly obsessed by their competitors to be wholly lacking in imagination, and managerial skills. After all, in my industry, it's he who is most creative and brings new solution sets to a customer wins big, and we have won big even in this tough economic situation.


    Seems like alot of if's. The argument of "it's the tough economy, if fuel stays just flat this year, and if the econmy would grow just a little... we woud be unstopable " has been used for many years at now bankrupt AMR. Hoping does not work, AApery proved that for many years and many billions of dollars. Your carrier's cost must be low (and continue to stay low), you must have loyal PREMIUM pax to pay for it all, you need lotsa cash, as well as a viable+desirable+profitable route network.

    As to the "awards": there are as many of those as there are airlines.

    As a poster who does fly for another carrier and has grown up in this industry I do not feel "inadequate", but frustrated that every few years some fool comes along to "transform the flying experience", the idea, while well recieved by the flying public does not translate into steady profits(i.e. B6), and thus they turn into another mediocre carrier that they said they'd never be just to survive. Which is detremental to the industry as a whole and then degrades the overall quality.

    If Y pax truly desire an "upscale experience" why is NK doing so well, why did YX go out of business, why did AA's more room in coach not last, why does'nt UA have all E+? In Y the fare trumps all.
    I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
     
    F9Animal
    Posts: 3681
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:31 pm

    Quoting LAXintl (Reply 14):
    Having worked for Branson, and having met him on countless occasions I would hardly call him a blowhard.

    He's nothing but a down to earth charismatic fella. He might now have ivy league business acumen but he makes up for it which charisma, a marketing knack while surrounding himself with a good cadre of executives.

    Personally he's one of the most warn and caring person I've met. More specifically a colleague of mine of having some medical issues with his daughter - out of the blue a few months later Branson shows up and the first thing he did was ask how this girl was doing by name.

    Very well said. I was going to comment on it, but I have a hard time taking the higher road. He is indeed very rich.. But, he sure knows how to wow people. He also has vision in this industry, which seems to be something lost many many years ago. He is trying to make flying a fun experience again, and I commend him for it. He is also bringing space to us, and that is incredible. He is very down to earth, and just a neat guy to talk to. I love Branson, and always will have a deep interest in him.

    As for VX, I see them improving, and that is important. I too stand on the lines, wishing them the best. Will they make it? I think so! Such a nice airline, and great idea. If I had money to invest, I would certainly invest in VX!
    I Am A Different Animal!!
     
    User avatar
    EA CO AS
    Posts: 13632
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:32 pm

    Quoting F9Animal (Reply 35):
    If I had money to invest, I would certainly invest in VX!

    Take whatever money you were planning on investing, put it in a paper bag, douse it with gasoline, and light it.

    The end result would be precisely the same return you'd get as if you'd invested in VX, except the flaming bag would at least keep you warm.
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    masseybrown
    Posts: 4488
    Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:40 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:11 pm

    Quoting hatbutton (Reply 1):
    But what is their total debt load up to now?

    You'll have to wait for the DoT data to find out. VX was also tight-lipped about the terms of their new loan.

    While LAXintl points out their cash has remained more or less level, their volumes have increased. So they are supporting vastly increased business on the same amount of working capital. You can take that as exceptional efficiency or as razor-thin cash levels. Using their published data, by the end of September they were running the business on a cushion of less than ten days worth of cash.

    I admire them. I thought they'd have been bankrupted long ago.
     
    gen2stew
    Posts: 136
    Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:15 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:58 pm

    USER PROFILE SEND INSTANT MSG ADD TO RESP MEMBERS SUGGEST DELETION QUOTE SELECTED TEXT _

    EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 11472 posts, RR: 68
    Reply 36, posted Sat Dec 24 2011 12:32:41 your local time (1 hour 23 minutes 16 secs ago) and read 101 times:



    Quoting F9Animal (Reply 35):
    If I had money to invest, I would certainly invest in VX!

    Take whatever money you were planning on investing, put it in a paper bag, douse it with gasoline, and light it.


    BRAVO! On the floor laughing!   
    I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
     
    UALWN
    Posts: 2177
    Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 7:45 pm

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 36):
    Take whatever money you were planning on investing, put it in a paper bag, douse it with gasoline, and light it.

    The end result would be precisely the same return you'd get as if you'd invested in VX, except the flaming bag would at least keep you warm.

    I agree with this advice, which can be extended to basically any US airline...
    AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
     
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    EA CO AS
    Posts: 13632
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    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 8:04 pm

    Quoting UALWN (Reply 39):
    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 36):
    Take whatever money you were planning on investing, put it in a paper bag, douse it with gasoline, and light it.

    The end result would be precisely the same return you'd get as if you'd invested in VX, except the flaming bag would at least keep you warm.

    I agree with this advice, which can be extended to basically any US airline...


    Not quite:

    http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ALK&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    hiflyeras
    Posts: 1515
    Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:20 pm

    I find it interesting that there are so many people with a negative view of VX...maybe it's because they're so full of themselves without any cred.
     
    UALWN
    Posts: 2177
    Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:56 pm

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 40):
    Not quite:

    Hence why I wrote "basically." Do you have a similar graph for AA though? What about the bankruptcies of UA, DL, NW, CO and US in the last ten years? How much have their investors recovered? Nothing.
    AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
     
    User avatar
    EA CO AS
    Posts: 13632
    Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:22 pm

    Quoting UALWN (Reply 42):
    Hence why I wrote "basically."

    Is that also why you said "any" right after it?

    Your blanket statement implied that all U.S. carriers could be looked at as poor investments, and I was simply refuting that sweeping generalization.

    [Edited 2011-12-24 15:24:15]
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    UALWN
    Posts: 2177
    Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:27 pm

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 43):
    Is that also why you said "any" right after it?

    Do you really don't understand what "basically any airline" means? Or are you just arguing for the sake of arguing?
    AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
     
    User avatar
    EA CO AS
    Posts: 13632
    Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:34 pm

    Quoting UALWN (Reply 44):
    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 43):
    Is that also why you said "any" right after it?


    Do you really don't understand what "basically any airline" means? Or are you just arguing for the sake of arguing?

    Leave it alone, we get it - based on what you're saying now, it sounds as if your intent was to say "most U.S. carriers" - but unfortunately, that's not what you said, hence my point.
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    Kleiner
    Posts: 46
    Joined: Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:32 am

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:34 pm

    Nobody complains their way to success. Which is why these armchair CEOs will never run an airline. If investors keep investing in VX, then there's info they know that you don't. Investors don't get their millions by throwing away money.

    It's amazing how many A.netters defend airline companies with a horrific product. These same airlines fail, and beg the US Goverment for help fixing their bad management. Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
     
    hiflyeras
    Posts: 1515
    Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:42 pm

    Quoting Kleiner (Reply 46):
    These same airlines fail, and beg the US Goverment for help fixing their bad management.

    Huh? Since when did any airline beg for help from the US government? Yes, EAS is a handout but airlines are being taxed to death by congress....there's apparently not much love between the airlines and US government. Hey, that's how VX can make a profit! Start bidding on EAS routes!  
     
    UALWN
    Posts: 2177
    Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sun Dec 25, 2011 12:12 am

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 45):
    t sounds as if your intent was to say "most U.S. carriers" - but unfortunately, that's not what you said, hence my point.

    Well, you may be surprised to find out that "most US carriers" and "basically any US airline" actually mean the same.
    AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
     
    MaverickM11
    Posts: 15455
    Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

    RE: Virgin America Post Q3 Earnings.

    Sun Dec 25, 2011 4:51 am

    Quoting Kleiner (Reply 46):
    It's amazing how many A.netters defend airline companies with a horrific product. These same airlines fail, and beg the US Goverment for help fixing their bad management. Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.

    Ignoring the tired and irrelevant argument about product, you try running an airline with six-plus decades of regulation costs and practices.
    E pur si muove -Galileo

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