washingtonian
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Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:25 pm

I assume this means that BA will place a large order for additional widebodies soon, if they really want to add long-haul capacity in the coming decade. I guess it doesn't drastically affect their choice of aircraft: My guess is that BA will operate quite a few 77Ws by the end of this decade.

Also, what's the consensus on where most of the longhaul growth will be? China? South America? A little bit of everything?

[Edited 2011-12-23 05:43:38]
 
rdwootty
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Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:31 pm

I suspect they will leave South America to Iberia using the hub at Madrid
 
liftsifter
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:34 pm

Well, BA is obsessed with capacity, they used to send three flights daily to ORD (2 777 1 744) with only one of the flights ever having a decent load. BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes. Emirates isn't successful because they send SEVEN flights a day into JFK. They are successful because they put the right aircraft, on the right routes, and because they understand the value of not killing your passengers with a $860 fuel surcharge on top of a $900 flight.

Sorry, but I want no part in an airline that nickels and dimes you. You too UA and AA..
A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B736 B737 B738 B744 B763 B77L B77E B77W B788 E190
 
heebeegb
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:15 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
Well, BA is obsessed with capacity, they used to send three flights daily to ORD (2 777 1 744) with only one of the flights ever having a decent load. BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes.


Erm, ok then........
 
LHRFlyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:19 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
Well, BA is obsessed with capacity, they used to send three flights daily to ORD (2 777 1 744) with only one of the flights ever having a decent load. BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes. Emirates isn't successful because they send SEVEN flights a day into JFK.

I couldn't think of a more off the mark statement about BA!

It's one of the most disciplined carriers when it comes to capacity. It was one of the first carriers to see the post Lehman Brothers downturn coming and cut capacity.

Also, load factors on BA are close to the highest for IAG on transatlantic routes. North America is performing very strongly for BA at the moment.

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=240949&p=irol-traffic

The reason why BA has seven flights a day to JFK is because high yield premium passengers on flexible tickets value frequency. Why do you think AA and BA have aligned schedules to create a "shuttle" type service to JFK?
 
JACK02116
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:34 pm

of course some of the BMI acquired BMED fleet are still in "temporary" livery ie BA colours with a BMI logo, so taking the 3 x A320 and 5 x 321 ( I think) back in to the fleet should be easy!
 
lhr380
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:52 pm

Quoting rdwootty (Reply 1):
I suspect they will leave South America to Iberia using the hub at Madrid

I doubt that!! South America has some very good yields, and I doubt the frequent flyers would appreciate loosing the direct LHR Link. IB does not compare to BA at all in the Prem and Y cabins on the route. IB have a good stay in South America, but not when it comes to On board service.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
Well, BA is obsessed with capacity, they used to send three flights daily to ORD (2 777 1 744) with only one of the flights ever having a decent load. BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes. Emirates isn't successful because they send SEVEN flights a day into JFK. They are successful because they put the right aircraft, on the right routes, and because they understand the value of not killing your passengers with a $860 fuel surcharge on top of a $900 flight.

Sorry, but I want no part in an airline that nickels and dimes you. You too UA and AA..

Um, please explain. I have no idea where you are coming from with the above statement? Customers demand the flights at the right times, hence the freq there is? Your aware from the UK that the Trans Atlantic route is one of the most competitive around. For IAG and the other JBA airline AA to compete, you have to have not only the capacity (Hence BA use the biggest aircraft it has) and the frequency we have right now.

BA are very good when it comes to using the right aircraft for its routes. Show me right now a route where they dont use the right plane. You seem to know a lot considering what you post says above so I would like a detailed reasoning behind it thank you
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rutankrd
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:56 pm

Quoting JACK02116 (Reply 6):

of course some of the BMI acquired BMED fleet are still in "temporary" livery ie BA colours with a BMI logo, so taking the 3 x A320 and 5 x 321 ( I think) back in to the fleet should be easy!

Wrong all are now in full BMi livery ,only a few juggle jets left in Euro White
 
sam1987
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:09 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes

I think BA knows how to be "responsible". No airline is perfect, but I don't think BA would just throw capacity on a route without good reason.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
they understand the value of not killing your passengers with a $860 fuel surcharge on top of a $900 flight

All airlines have to pay for fuel to fly their planes. Some are open and transparent about the recent oil price rises (by adding a fuel surcharge to each ticket) and some just increase prices in other ways (Ryanair's increased card and baggage fees, for example, will be covering the some of the fuel costs).
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liftsifter
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:22 pm

Quoting sam1987 (Reply 9):

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
they understand the value of not killing your passengers with a $860 fuel surcharge on top of a $900 flight

All airlines have to pay for fuel to fly their planes. Some are open and transparent about the recent oil price rises (by adding a fuel surcharge to each ticket) and some just increase prices in other ways (Ryanair's increased card and baggage fees, for example, will be covering the some of the fuel costs).

I think I'll go for an airline that can charge me the same priced fare without a fuel surcharge, thank you.
A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B736 B737 B738 B744 B763 B77L B77E B77W B788 E190
 
Sketty222
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:03 am

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 10):
I think I'll go for an airline that can charge me the same priced fare without a fuel surcharge, thank you.

You may be driving to your destination then
 Wow!


All airlines have fuel costs and as mentioned above, some are transparent about where these fuel costs are shown and some aren't.
Would you rather an airline said ok, your return ticket to XXX is $900 all in or your fare is $300, your TFC $250 and the fuel surcharge is $350?
There's flying and then there's flying
 
ORDJOE
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:05 am

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 10):
I think I'll go for an airline that can charge me the same priced fare without a fuel surcharge, thank you.

Or just fly US, UA, AA, DL etc, where we assume that since fuel is needed to get you from A to B that it is required to put the cost of fuel into the ticket instead of socking you with the YQ at checkout or on award travel.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:39 am

Quoting JL418 (Reply 3):
Flights towards NYC, just to make an example, are seven for a reason, i.e. flexibility. It is, by far, the most profitable route for BA as it's predominantly business passengers paying high fares and, as business passengers, they demand flexibility.

I'm not so sure that "predominantly" is the right word to use, but I've only anecdotal information to go by, just like anyone else. Some things to ponder:

1) A fair number of Club (Business) seats are taken by BAEC members using miles to upgrade from World Traveler Plus (Premium Economy);

2) BA sells a lot of inventory during known and defined annual sales periods (one just started, and runs thru Jan 24, where except for the Olympic months, you can buy premium cabin tickets at a discount going out through next September or so);

3) We all know that BA carries a sizable amount of transfer traffic, where the yields are nowhere near what they could get for traffic originating in the UK (price out tickets starting in Italy, for example);

4) When the GFC began in the fall of 2008, folks were posting on Flyertalk that the J-class contract rate for the major banks were as low as $850 each way on AA between New York and London (don't recall what the BA rate was, if it was mentioned), so even if they have a lot of business travelers demanding flexibility, it's not all at full rates by a long shot.

When it really comes down to it, BA needs to fill around 600 premium cabin seats every day between LHR/LCY and JFK alone. There simply aren't that many people who look at their watches at 2pm as a meeting adjourns and declare "Put me on the 5pm flight to Kennedy instead of the 7pm tonight." Let's not forget that BA isn't the only airline flying between New York and London, so the actual daily inventory of premium seats in the market is a fair amount higher.

Going back 20-30 years there's been an exponential growth of airline traffic across the North Atlantic, and BA will have to look at growth trends and forecasts when ordering aircraft that themselves last 20+ years in continuous service. They'll also have to consider the type of traffic they'll need to carry and cater to to make that a profitable venture. Only a tiny percentage will come from those paying the very top rates for last-minute flexibility.
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ba319-131
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:10 am

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 2):
Well, BA is obsessed with capacity, they used to send three flights daily to ORD (2 777 1 744) with only one of the flights ever having a decent load. BA is an airline that needs to learn to be responsible with their routes. Emirates isn't successful because they send SEVEN flights a day into JFK. They are successful because they put the right aircraft, on the right routes, and because they understand the value of not killing your passengers with a $860 fuel surcharge on top of a $900 flight.

Sorry, but I want no part in an airline that nickels and dimes you. You too UA and AA..

- Pointless comment, show me a major carrier that has an economy fare (as an example) that is $860 cheaper than BA'S fare on the same route on the same day.

Re Emirates, if they could fill 7 flights a day to JFK they would fly that many services, the point is BA can fill them so why the heck not fly 7 daily flight.
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JL418
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:27 am

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 7):
I doubt that!! South America has some very good yields, and I doubt the frequent flyers would appreciate loosing the direct LHR Link. IB does not compare to BA at all in the Prem and Y cabins on the route. IB have a good stay in South America, but not when it comes to On board service.

Interesting comment. You're right about the difference between BA and IB in terms of service and on-board experience. Normally you'd expect passengers to understand the difference but, sometimes, they don't and BA faces disaffection. But the amount of slots (and stands, let us not forget that as stands are the real issue in LHR) BA will get will be limited and the destinations to cover many. I think that the focus of new flights will be to Asia, especially China, where Oneworld is particularly weak - it's tragic that not a single mainland Chinese carrier is in the alliance.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
1) A fair number of Club (Business) seats are taken by BAEC members using miles to upgrade from World Traveler Plus (Premium Economy);

As a BA employee I can tell you that Hotline tickets are seldomly used on intercontinental routes, where Staff Travel is widely used. And Staff travel means that you are last in the queue for a seat, after every paying passenger is seated. You simply don't, and I say again don't, steal capacity from passengers. I go on the seating availability report quite often and I can assure you that the cases when the slots are green (10+ seats on a certain route on a given day), towards North America, are more the exception than the clause. And I know some colleagues that had to do the hop on the jumpseat, or were literally dumped off the aircraft at the very last moment.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
2) BA sells a lot of inventory during known and defined annual sales periods (one just started, and runs thru Jan 24, where except for the Olympic months, you can buy premium cabin tickets at a discount going out through next September or so);

Anyone does. BA has 26 fare classes and 2 of them, if I remember correctly, of them are assigned to offers, for a very limited number of seats on each plane.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
3) We all know that BA carries a sizable amount of transfer traffic, where the yields are nowhere near what they could get for traffic originating in the UK (price out tickets starting in Italy, for example);

That's not necessarily true. Transits are everyone's bread and butter. If they weren't, I wonder how Emirates and the other Middle Eastern airlines are still flying.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
4) When the GFC began in the fall of 2008, folks were posting on Flyertalk that the J-class contract rate for the major banks were as low as $850 each way on AA between New York and London (don't recall what the BA rate was, if it was mentioned), so even if they have a lot of business travelers demanding flexibility, it's not all at full rates by a long shot.

Well that's hardly an achievement! UK's biggest corporate fliers are banks, then oil&gas and then mining. In 2008 banks were on life support, oil&gas and mining weren't doing really better as well. Now, even with the € crisis, few corporate clients have reviewed their travel policies.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
When it really comes down to it, BA needs to fill around 600 premium cabin seats every day between LHR/LCY and JFK alone. There simply aren't that many people who look at their watches at 2pm as a meeting adjourns and declare "Put me on the 5pm flight to Kennedy instead of the 7pm tonight." Let's not forget that BA isn't the only airline flying between New York and London, so the actual daily inventory of premium seats in the market is a fair amount higher.

This is something that the guys in strategic marketing keep on banging about. Yields aren't just Club and First. I can't tell the exact figures 'cause I don't know them and even if I knew them I probably wouldn't be allowed to say them, but a surprisingly high amount of people holding a Silver or Gold card isn't flying on the pointy end of the bus. They pay full, extremely flexible WT+ or WT fares and they literally hop on one flight or another. I've shadowed a Duty Manager at LHR some time ago, on the whole shift we met 5 of these guys asking to switch for a earlier or later TATL flight and they easily could given their status and ticket. The truth is that the picture is a lot more complex than it seems.

Moreover, speaking about other companies on the TATL routes to and from NYC and London: the JBA with AA allows BA to get around 50%-60% out of every ticket issued by IB, AA and BA on every TATL flight direct or coming from North America. And I think they are pretty much on a dominant position in this market.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
Going back 20-30 years there's been an exponential growth of airline traffic across the North Atlantic, and BA will have to look at growth trends and forecasts when ordering aircraft that themselves last 20+ years in continuous service. They'll also have to consider the type of traffic they'll need to carry and cater to to make that a profitable venture. Only a tiny percentage will come from those paying the very top rates for last-minute flexibility.

There's plenty of brillian brains working on those things, otherwise we wouldn't have something like 7 or 8 different configs for the long haul fleet. The way I see it is that BA orders a plane allowing low fuel consumption and great flexibility and then adapts the interior, the service and the pricings according to the market. The introduction of the new bronze card is just an example. It's specifically targeted at those fellows I mentioned a couple of lines above.

[Edited 2011-12-24 01:30:32]
 
tcasalert
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:29 am

Quoting sam1987 (Reply 9):
All airlines have to pay for fuel to fly their planes. Some are open and transparent about the recent oil price rises (by adding a fuel surcharge to each ticket) and some just increase prices in other ways (Ryanair's increased card and baggage fees, for example, will be covering the some of the fuel costs).

So you'd think it would be included in the price of your ticket then, seeing as it is a cost of the flight. Next thing you know, we'll have a fare of 1p, plus a "Pilot Salary Surcharge", "Hydraulic Fluid Surcharge", "Maintenance Surcharge", "Cabin Crew Uniform Surcharge", "Aircraft Cleaning Surcharge", "Toilet Emptying Levy", the list could be never ending. All in the name of drawing you in with the lowest headline price.

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 12):
Or just fly US, UA, AA, DL etc, where we assume that since fuel is needed to get you from A to B that it is required to put the cost of fuel into the ticket instead of socking you with the YQ at checkout or on award travel.

  
Next flight: Feb 2012 - BHX-CPH-BHX - SK MD87 / CRJ900
 
G-CIVP
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:39 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
When it really comes down to it, BA needs to fill around 600 premium cabin seats every day between LHR/LCY and JFK alone

Question - where do you get that stat from?
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:52 am

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 12):

Have you ever bought a BA ticket online ? I assume not, as their website clearly includes all taxes and surcharges in the headline price. You don,t get to see the breakdown until later in the transaction.
 
qf002
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:24 pm

Quoting G-CIVP (Reply 17):
Question - where do you get that stat from?

It's simple maths:

7 flights, all with B744's (assuming all are hi-J) -- 7 x 84 = 588. Add to that 2 x 32 for the LCY service (64) and you get a grand total of daily seats being 652.

You can then also add EWR if you're referring to NYC as a whole.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:38 pm

Quoting TCASAlert (Reply 16):
So you'd think it would be included in the price of your ticket then, seeing as it is a cost of the flight. Next thing you know, we'll have a fare of 1p, plus a "Pilot Salary Surcharge", "Hydraulic Fluid Surcharge", "Maintenance Surcharge", "Cabin Crew Uniform Surcharge", "Aircraft Cleaning Surcharge", "Toilet Emptying Levy", the list could be never ending. All in the name of drawing you in with the lowest headline price.

Oh please, BA use the fuel surcharge to show exactly how much of an airfare is made up of the fuel costs, which are quite significant given the costs of aviation fuel these days. I also find BA's fares some of the easiest to understand - they always quote you the all in cost, but then break that down to show the fuel surcharge element. When I'm looking at airfares I can assure you that it is not BA's that drive me mad because I don't find the amount I'd be expected to pay increasing with each new webpage I naviagte to through the booking process!
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
jamesontheroad
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:39 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 18):
Have you ever bought a BA ticket online ? I assume not, as their website clearly includes all taxes and surcharges in the headline price. You don,t get to see the breakdown until later in the transaction.

Not in the USA it doesn't. The UK and US facing websites present taxes differently - included in the UK and not in the US until later in the booking process.

To get back on topic...

Quoting JACK02116 (Reply 6):
of course some of the BMI acquired BMED fleet are still in "temporary" livery ie BA colours with a BMI logo, so taking the 3 x A320 and 5 x 321 ( I think) back in to the fleet should be easy!
Quoting rutankrd (Reply 8):
Wrong all are now in full BMi livery ,only a few juggle jets left in Euro White

Indeed - repainted and all looking pretty spiffy if you ask me. I'll miss the livery, especially on the ex-BMED A321s ;(


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Thomas Posch - VAP
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Christel Sinsen Photography - Female Spotters!



Note also that almost the entire fleet has now received "new" interiors - displaced LH seats with grey (for LH services) or brown (BMI) leather in the short haul A319 and A320; new brown leather seat coverings in mid-haul and a whole raft of other tweaks - new carpets, lighting etc. Only the two A332 and two A320 formerly dedicated to the LHR-DME route have older interiors. These are the refreshed mid-haul business class and the displaced ex-LH short-haul cabins:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Geoff M
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Konstantin von Wedelstaedt



The Jungle jets (although I prefer rutankrd's "juggle jets") all belong to BMI Regional and if rumours are true will go with the rest of that subsidary to a new ABZ-based regional airline early in 2012.

For the record, BMI has the following:

• 16 short-haul configured A319 and A320
• 9 mid-haul configured A320 and A321 (3 outstanding A321 orders inherited from BMED, likely to go to LH in 2012/3)
• 2 Airbus A332 in two different long-haul configurations (lie-flat business in one, cradle business in the other)

BMI Regional has

• 4 Embraer 135ER & 135ADV
• 15 Embraer 145EP, 145EU & 145MP

[Edited 2011-12-24 04:41:03]
 
AIR MALTA
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:26 pm

Quoting jamesontheroad (Reply 21):

Note also that almost the entire fleet has now received "new" interiors - displaced LH seats with grey (for LH services) or brown (BMI) leather in the short haul A319 and A320; new brown leather seat coverings in mid-haul and a whole raft of other tweaks - new carpets, lighting etc.

Love those brown economy seats... If only BA could use them accross its fleet instead of the new blue saver seats...
Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
 
LondonJamie
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:52 pm

The planned interior upgrade to the exBMED fleet of a320/321's is still going ahead. A friend of mine was over in Belfast to see the new product last week. There will be flat beds installed in the business cabin.
The fact is we don't make the same mistake more than 3 times....maybe 4!
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:12 pm

Assuming that BA will re organise the short haul schedules on the competing routes in order to free up slots for new long haul flights, it would appear that average aircraft size will need to increase, plus more long haul capacity will be required.

Thus a reduction in the number of A319's at LHR with more routes covered by A320's and A321's, perhaps even B763's being regularly deployed on UK domestic. This would free up A319's which could be sent to LGW to replace the B734's

IAG appear to hold a mixture of A320 series orders and options, which will in time provide new appropriately sized planes, I expect that the ex BMED aircraft will stay in the fleet as they were BA spec to start with

For long haul 744's and 763's will probably be expected to soldier on a little longer than planned, we might even see the remaining two 744's return from the desert. The deal is expected to complete by March 2012, so the earliest we are likely to see much in the way of schedule changes is for winter 2012. The 787's and 380's commence delivery in early 2013, which will make it possible to start expanding long haul routes more for summer 2013.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:48 pm

Quoting JL418 (Reply 15):
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
3) We all know that BA carries a sizable amount of transfer traffic, where the yields are nowhere near what they could get for traffic originating in the UK (price out tickets starting in Italy, for example);

That's not necessarily true. Transits are everyone's bread and butter. If they weren't, I wonder how Emirates and the other Middle Eastern airlines are still flying.

I appreciate where you're coming from in your reply, but none of it substantiates use of the word "predominantly" when referring to the fill rate of the premium cabins in the way you used it.

The point I quoted above is one of the best indicators that we have to corroborate that. Connecting traffic is rarely at any sort of premium, and is usually at a significant discount to nonstop point-to-point long haul travel. A simple comparison of a market such as MXP-JFK via LHR vs. MXP-JFK nonstop or LHR-JFK nonstop should be enough to show that. On a random date next week I just checked, a one-way MXP-JFK nonstop fare is around 80% higher in Club than via LHR.

When BA goes shopping for planes to fill these new slots, or decides upon which planes in bmi's fleet to keep or reject, the last-minute business traveler (in WT+ as you seem to indicate, rather than Club or First where the really big fares are) will be a consideration, but not a huge or "predominant" piece of the pie.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 19):
Quoting G-CIVP (Reply 17):
Question - where do you get that stat from?

It's simple maths:

  
International Homo of Mystery
 
JL418
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:59 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 25):
I appreciate where you're coming from in your reply, but none of it substantiates use of the word "predominantly" when referring to the fill rate of the premium cabins in the way you used it.

The point I quoted above is one of the best indicators that we have to corroborate that. Connecting traffic is rarely at any sort of premium, and is usually at a significant discount to nonstop point-to-point long haul travel. A simple comparison of a market such as MXP-JFK via LHR vs. MXP-JFK nonstop or LHR-JFK nonstop should be enough to show that. On a random date next week I just checked, a one-way MXP-JFK nonstop fare is around 80% higher in Club than via LHR.

When BA goes shopping for planes to fill these new slots, or decides upon which planes in bmi's fleet to keep or reject, the last-minute business traveler (in WT+ as you seem to indicate, rather than Club or First where the really big fares are) will be a consideration, but not a huge or "predominant" piece of the pie.

Perhaps it's my English deceiving me but I guess something is lost in translation here. The fact that transfer flights are cheaper than direct ones is a well known reality, no one doubts about it. But what I fail to understand is how this situation can influence the way BA chooses its future airplanes. Current fleet is divided in many different sub fleets to fit the need of every route as close as possible and, concerning future acquisitions, everyone goes after fuel efficiency, reliability and ease of maintenance, isn't it? At the end of the day the market offers a definite number of planes: if you want a big long-hauler you go for the 77W, if you want a smaller one a 787 or a 330 and so forth. If you want to change your config you just take the plane, fly it to Glasgow or Cardiff and fill it with premium economy seats if this is what the market tells you.

[Edited 2011-12-24 06:59:41]
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:46 pm

Quoting JL418 (Reply 26):
But what I fail to understand is how this situation can influence the way BA chooses its future airplanes.

If you can pack the front end of your plane with significantly higher fares on average, you aren't looking to haul around a lot of people in back to "make it up on volume", as it were. Now that airlines don't need to buy a 747 simply for its range, it opens up a whole other opportunity to truly right-size the fleet to market demand.

BA has to consider that it has a finite number of slots that can be utilized. If they were running with a significant percentage of full-fare seats being sold, there'd be absolutely no reason whatsoever to put a 744 onto LHR-JFK multiple times a day, other than that's what they currently have in inventory to fly. They could easily downsize while keeping the frequencies, leaving the junk fares to be carried on other airlines from cheaper airports.

But they do need to make it up on volume in a way, because even though the planes are configured in a more premium-heavy manner than most, only a small amount of the seats are being taken up at the top fares, opposite of what your original post indicated was the situation.
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LHRFlyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:57 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 24):
The deal is expected to complete by March 2012, so the earliest we are likely to see much in the way of schedule changes is for winter 2012

In terms of substantive changes, I would agree with you. However, IAG has said it is keen to complete by March 2012 so it can start work for the Summer 2012 season, so they may be some rejigging of slots between bmi and BA to optimise schedules and network connectivity and some changes to schedules on routes served jointly in the Summer 2012 season.

IAG has always anticipated bmi being put up for the sale so I think plans behind the scenes are quite advanced.
 
JL418
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:59 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 27):
If you can pack the front end of your plane with significantly higher fares on average, you aren't looking to haul around a lot of people in back to "make it up on volume", as it were. Now that airlines don't need to buy a 747 simply for its range, it opens up a whole other opportunity to truly right-size the fleet to market demand.

BA has to consider that it has a finite number of slots that can be utilized. If they were running with a significant percentage of full-fare seats being sold, there'd be absolutely no reason whatsoever to put a 744 onto LHR-JFK multiple times a day, other than that's what they currently have in inventory to fly. They could easily downsize while keeping the frequencies, leaving the junk fares to be carried on other airlines from cheaper airports.

But they do need to make it up on volume in a way, because even though the planes are configured in a more premium-heavy manner than most, only a small amount of the seats are being taken up at the top fares, opposite of what your original post indicated was the situation.

This reasoning you're making would be right if:
1. LFs were indeed that low;
2. BA didn't know what to do of its 747s fleet;
3. All BA planes are configured in the same, premium-heavy, configurations
4. Only 747s fly to North America.

And, honestly, I'm afraid that's not the case.

[Edited 2011-12-24 07:59:49]
 
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 4:18 pm

Quoting JL418 (Reply 29):
This reasoning you're making would be right if:
1. LFs were indeed that low;
2. BA didn't know what to do of its 747s fleet;
3. All BA planes are configured in the same, premium-heavy, configurations
4. Only 747s fly to North America.

And, honestly, that's not.

Okay, debunk this, please:

If BA was running say 767s on LHR-JFK instead of 747s, but with the same number of First, Club and WT+ seats:

1. Aircraft acquisition costs would be less;
2. Personnel costs would be less;
3. Fuel costs would be less;
4. Facility costs would be less ... etc.

Their average fare per passenger would skyrocket.

That's simple math, and where fleet planning comes in.

Let the Christmas shoppers heading to New York on a £400(?) return ticket fly on a charter from STN. No sense clogging up Heathrow with that kind of business. There's an enormous investment in infrastructure required to carry these loads on sub-premium fares.

We could debate all of the various tangents all day, but in all of your posts, I've still not seen anything close to backing up your initial claim that BA is carrying "predominantly" high-fare passengers who require high frequencies to New York from London in large enough volumes to justify the big planes. It's just not there.

[Edited 2011-12-24 08:22:52]
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 4:29 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 30):
We could debate all of the various tangents all day, but in all of your posts, I've still not seen anything close to backing up your initial claim that BA is carrying "predominantly" high-fare passengers who require high frequencies to New York from London. It's just not there.

While I don't particularly want to jump into the middle of this, frequency is king for BA/AA on this route. The main selling point of their JBA is the hourly departures out of LHR in the evenings, you just have to look at their respective press releases to see this. Their core driving market on this route is the high-fare passengers -- this is clearly evident through the fact that their services are directly tailored to that market. The services are marketed to the business market because they cater for the needs of the business market.

Having said that, it's not all about the premium market. While there are 650 seats a day in F/J, there are more than 1500 seats in W/Y, and BA can't be profitable on these routes without filling most of those seats as well.
 
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 4:55 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 31):
Their core driving market on this route is the high-fare passengers -- this is clearly evident through the fact that their services are directly tailored to that market. The services are marketed to the business market because they cater for the needs of the business market.

I don't disagree with you at all, and a fair point to reiterate. But could BA still cater to this market on something other than 747s, or in future, A380s? Certainly.

That's where fleet planning comes in, and the topic of this thread.

Once again, let's be clear. My issue is with the presentation that the bulk of this market is the high-fare flexible passenger. I believe the big planes are required to get enough volume in the broad range of fares necessary to support this frequent service, which makes BA an appealing choice. What size of plane will be required in 2020 or 2030 when today's purchases will still be in use on a limited inventory of slots to meet this demand? I don't know. That's for the fleet guys to work out, and now they've a new twist to consider, all of the bmi slots they'll have to fill.
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sat Dec 24, 2011 9:18 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 30):
Okay, debunk this, please:

If BA was running say 767s on LHR-JFK instead of 747s, but with the same number of First, Club and WT+ seats:

Well BA's long-haul 767s don't have First for a starter......
 
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 6:02 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 32):
But could BA still cater to this market on something other than 747s, or in future, A380s? Certainly.

I disagree. The 200-odd W/Y seats on each LHR-JFK flight are as important to the sustainability of high frequency services as the seats in F/J. If fares skyrocket because of the excessive costs of super premium-heavy aircraft (ie a 787 with 14F/70J/30W/50Y) then BA is then not catering for that market, which is still extremely sensitive to cost.

I personally see a mix of a couple of A380's and 10+ 77W sized planes on the route between BA and AA in the future.

And back to the topic -- does anybody else here dream of a BA A332?
 
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:49 am

Will BA keep BD's seats in the 320 and 321? I really find them more comfortable.
 
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:55 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 33):
And back to the topic -- does anybody else here dream of a BA A332?

With only two aircraft I can't really see it, unless BA can secure leases asap on a few RR Trent powered A332s, and utilise the bmi crews to operate these aircraft to start opening up either new longhaul routes, or to replace BA aircraft on some existing routes (767 Africa routes?) to allow BA to open up new routes with its own metal.
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qf002
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 12:02 pm

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 35):
With only two aircraft I can't really see it

Oh absolutely, and neither can I... It's totally unrealistic (especially when IB is sat right there with all their A330/A340's), would just love to see the BA livery on a big Airbus...
 
bwaflyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 5:17 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 34):
Will BA keep BD's seats in the 320 and 321? I really find them more comfortable.

Although you could argue that BD has kept BA's seats in 1/2 of the mid haul fleet as the economy seats are the same as fitted to most of the long haul fleet, and the business seats are the club world cradle seats!
 
mikey72
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 6:33 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 29):
If BA was running say 767s on LHR-JFK instead of 747s, but with the same number of First, Club and WT+ seats:

Don't ask me why because I don't know 'but' people paying alot of money to fly long distances like getting on 'very big jets'

(Maybe the 787 will change that but until then..........)

For instance there is a certain kudos surrounding the A380 at the moment that attracts customers.

BA is also the only non-American airline to have it's own terminal at JFK so they might aswell make good use of it as i'm sure it ain't cheap to run.

Add on to that the fact that BA can send 8 of their 55 gas guzzling 744's to JFK daily and still make a fortune so it's pretty obvious why they don't send the 767. They put them on much lower yielding routes.

It just makes sense for them with their current fleet but I'm sure that even when the 744's retire JFK will be operated by very large twins.

[Edited 2011-12-25 10:35:09]
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 7:16 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 38):
Add on to that the fact that BA can send 8 of their 55 gas guzzling 744's to JFK daily and still make a fortune so it's pretty obvious why they don't send the 767. They put them on much lower yielding routes.

It just makes sense for them with their current fleet but I'm sure that even when the 744's retire JFK will be operated by very large twins.

Dont forget the 767 's are very poor at hauling cargo due to the fact it cant take LD3's side by side or LD11 pallets
 
rtfm
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Sun Dec 25, 2011 8:03 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 38):
Don't ask me why because I don't know 'but' people paying alot of money to fly long distances like getting on 'very big jets'

Actually, I think that they prefer nice seats, good service and lounges.... I'm never convinced by this argument that you need to fly the biggest (or even the newest) a/c on a particular route.... Otherwise why is the upper deck Club World on BA's 744 preferred to the main deck CW? And if people paying more money prefer bigger planes, how do we explain the success of BA' LCY-JFK with A318s...?
 
mikey72
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:08 am

Quoting RTFM (Reply 40):
Actually, I think that they prefer nice seats, good service and lounges.... I'm never convinced by this argument that you need to fly the biggest (or even the newest) a/c on a particular route.... Otherwise why is the upper deck Club World on BA's 744 preferred to the main deck CW? And if people paying more money prefer bigger planes, how do we explain the success of BA' LCY-JFK with A318s...?

With respect I knew that was coming.

The advantages of LCY over LHR to people based in the city of London (finance etc) and the pre-clearance give that service a sort of Concorde-esque feel to it. It's not the norm.


Quoting RTFM (Reply 40):
Actually, I think that they prefer nice seats, good service and lounges....

Agree totally that wasn't the point I was trying to make. Thing is that in the case of the current BA fleet (can't speak for other airlines) the 767's don't really accomodate well their Club World product and the new First wouldn't have the same feel at all. The aircraft is just too small.

Like you say the U/D has always been a big hit but that cabin is only possible due to the design of the 744 which is just about as big as it gets behind the A380.
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 9:25 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 29):
Okay, debunk this, please:

If BA was running say 767s on LHR-JFK instead of 747s, but with the same number of First, Club and WT+ seats:

1. Aircraft acquisition costs would be less;
2. Personnel costs would be less;
3. Fuel costs would be less;
4. Facility costs would be less ... etc.

Their average fare per passenger would skyrocket.

That's simple math, and where fleet planning comes in.

Umm, I mean this in the nicest possible way but you do know that BA is based in LHR don't you???

If they were not using *every* single slot in the most productive manner possible then there would be a shareholder revolt and (at the very least) the entire management team should be sacked for incompetence. LHR slots are simply too valuable to fly vanity routes or simply slot-warm to prevent competitors entering. Therefore somebody in BA fleet/yield planning who (I hasten to add) knows a lot more information than you would have has obviously determined that a 744 to JFK multiple times a day wasn't the most profitable use of those slots.
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mikey72
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:17 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 42):
Umm, I mean this in the nicest possible way but you do know that BA is based in LHR don't you???

If they were not using *every* single slot in the most productive manner possible then there would be a shareholder revolt and (at the very least) the entire management team should be sacked for incompetence. LHR slots are simply too valuable to fly vanity routes or simply slot-warm to prevent competitors entering. Therefore somebody in BA fleet/yield planning who (I hasten to add) knows a lot more information than you would have has obviously determined that a 744 to JFK multiple times a day wasn't the most profitable use of those slots.

     

You have to remember though that people that aren't familiar with the market might look at it and think.....

''jesus...eight 744's a day.....''

Current fleet available and the accounts speak for themselves...
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LGWflyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:29 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 23):
Thus a reduction in the number of A319's at LHR with more routes covered by A320's and A321's, perhaps even B763's being regularly deployed on UK domestic. This would free up A319's which could be sent to LGW to replace the B734's

The LHR 319's would not replace the 734's so soon as they are will be around for at least a couple more years to come as recently they had some refittings. I would expect the 319's to add to the LGW fleet and operate along side the 734's.
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AIR MALTA
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 12:00 pm

Quoting LGWflyer (Reply 44):
The LHR 319's would not replace the 734's so soon as they are will be around for at least a couple more years to come as recently they had some refittings. I would expect the 319's to add to the LGW fleet and operate along side the 734's.

Which ones have had refitting? I have been on G-DOCV and it looked oldish...
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LGWflyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:44 pm

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 45):
Which ones have had refitting? I have been on G-DOCV and it looked oldish...

Not 100% sure sorry, but I swear that I heard somewhere they had been refitted.
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LGWflyer
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 9:02 pm

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 45):
AIR MALTA

I had a look on Google and I couldn't find any info bout the 734 refits. But one thing I know for sure 100% is that the BA 734's are going to be around until at least until 2014. If they haven't been refitted by now already I would hope they most likely would have been done before they are retired at least. Btw when was the last time you was on DOCV?
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AIR MALTA
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 11:07 pm

I have been on DOCV last friday 23 Dec from London to Tunis.
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mdavies06
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RE: Effect Of BMI Purchase On BA's Fleet?

Mon Dec 26, 2011 11:38 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83243912/

WW said that he will look to use the slots on a mixture of short haul routes and emerging market routes (the later he said twice), both for existing routes and new routes. BA will require a mixture of short haul aircrafts and medium sized long haul aircrafts to achieve this. Therefore, I would assume then that once BA take over BD's fleet, BA will seek to phase out a number of the existing BD aircrafts which are all short haul based and in turn order more 787/77W aircrafts to serve emerging market routes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...eal-buying-bmi-from-lufthansa.html

Seperately, WW said on a conference call that IAG will seek to boost services to China and offer new destinations including Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia. I think then we will soon see routes such as LHR-CAN, LHR-ICN, LHR-SGN, LHR-CGK which will be interesting, most of which will be 787 to start off with and a few will probably end up having 77W in the longer term.

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