nycdave
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Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:36 am

I'm going to ask what might WELL BE a really stupid question, but my curiosity got the best of me...

Why is there no direct SYD-JFK service? Shouldn't that be inside the envelope for the 77L, and maybe just a squeaker for the 345? Or are there issues, capability-wise I missed or don't understand? It seems like, if it were possible, it'd be a surefire winner given the number of Aussies in NYC, and the global banking connections... GC Mapper gives a route of under 8700nmi, and all the wikis give a 77L design range of over 9300nmi...
 
deltaflyertoo
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Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:40 am

JFK to SYD is probably around 21 hours nonstop. There is no airliner that can do a 21 hour flight. I believe the longest flight out there is 18 hours, maybe 19? (Maybe I stand corrected).
 
mandala499
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:02 am

1. It'll fly more distance than the Great Circle line... 8700 can be 8800 - 9000nm once you put everything in (although 8800 is more likely)
2. Wind. It may work going one way, but not on the way back. A 40kt headwind component over 8500nm already makes your net air distance 9300nm or so... Which will give you a maximum OEW of around 185 tons... which is only about 40 tons... (so not much cargo eh?)
3. "You need fuel to carry the fuel you use later on in the flight"... ie: expensive... around 130 tons each way give or take a few tons... which is about 10 tons more fuel than if you make it a 1 stop flight (and 1 stop allows it much much more payload capability).

But, that doesn't mean it won't work!   
The other issues is introducing a new type... where else can the 777-200LR be used for the airline.
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kiwiandrew

RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:05 am

I think you have to bear in mind that QF can barely make a daily A330 into JFK work even though it gets fed at LAX by flights from AKL/MEL/BNE and SYD, I really don't see how a theoretical SYD-JFK would work even if there was an aircraft capable of operating it.
 
migair54
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:26 am

With so many one stop competition via LAX, DFW, SFO, DXB........ It will be a loss making route almost for sure....

Remember that SQ flight SIN-NYC is on a only Business class configuration, that´s why they do, otherwise yields wouldn´t allow to make a decent profit.
Crew and aircraft rotation is very expensive in this long routes.

I don´t think any airline is in the position to obtain almost 70-100 business class pax flying non-stop from SYD to NYC.

Some city pairs are just impossible, not only for the distance but also because of the competition. Another example SYD-LHR....
 
wn700driver
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:46 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
A 40kt headwind component over 8500nm already makes your net air distance 9300nm or so...

While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...
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qf002
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:20 am

It takes just as long to go via LAX at the end of the day. 5 hours across the US then a couple of hours and a 13-14 hour Pacific crossing. Add to that the enormous cost of ULH travel, the fact that the corporate ties aren't that significant and the stigma that SYD has for pax in MEL, BNE etc. It's much more efficient and effective to hub on the West Coast, with the single flight feeding into SYD, MEL, BNE, AKL.
 
RAFVC10
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:26 am

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 1):
I believe the longest flight out there is 18 hours, maybe 19? (Maybe I stand corrected).

You're not wrong... Longest non-stop scheduled flight is SQ from SIN to EWR with 18 hours and 50 minutes of average flight.

Gerard
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EK413
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:40 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stop_flight

Singapore - Newark being the longest route to date with Los Angeles - Singapore in second place and Sydney - Dallas third...

EK413
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HKG212
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:51 am

Quoting migair54 (Reply 4):
I don´t think any airline is in the position to obtain almost 70-100 business class pax flying non-stop from SYD to NYC.

It does seem like a stretch, but then again I always thought the SQ all-biz SIN-EWR service was a stretch, but it's been going on for, what, 4-5 years now?...

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 3):
I think you have to bear in mind that QF can barely make a daily A330 into JFK work

Interesting, I was not aware that QF droppped the 3X weekly 744 in favor of a daily A330 on LAX-JFK. Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?
 
AustrianZRH
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:16 pm

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 5):
While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...

Flying time in still air*headwind component speed.

If you assume a 8500 nm flying distance at a ground speed of 550 mph, this gives you a flying time just below 18 hours. Multiply that by a headwind component of 40 knots, and you get the equivalent additional distance, in the case of my calc approximately 712 nm.

Would be my way to calculate it.

[Edited 2011-12-27 04:17:02]

[Edited 2011-12-27 04:17:55]
WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
 
staralliance85
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:24 pm

It would be interesting to see a UA 787 EWR-SYD All Business Class. But that is highly unlikely because UA is going to start IAH-AKL so their partner Air New Zealand can offer great connections throughout NZ/AUS. From NYC, there are so many connecting cities that have service to SYD such as LAX, SFO,DFW, YVR, DXB and AUH.
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Lufthansa
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:09 pm

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 11):
All Business Class. But that is highly unlikely because UA is going to start IAH-AKL so their partner Air New Zealand can offer great connections throughout NZ/AUS.

you seem to have forgotten that united already fly Direct to Australia, sending people to Houston and then New Zealand would be a downgrade. No net advantage over existing services. UAL needs to go IAH - Aust nonstop to get an advantage. But they can already do most of this from SFO. If they really want the upper hand, they should start SFO - BNE and SFO - MEL nonstop, allowing one stop from all major US markets via their hub. DFW works for QF because AA doesn't have a true hub at LAX. UAL however is in a different situation at SFO. Oh and I wouldn't get too keen on NZ helping with the connections. This IAH flight will undermine their LAX and SFO flights so they will not be happy chappy's at all.
 
ORDJOE
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:15 pm

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
in favor of a daily A330 on LAX-JFK. Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?

I thought it was basically a way to keep that bird in the air, keep in mind QF's planes arrive in the morning and early afternoon in LAX and do not leave until late evening. I do though think there is a certain degree of prestige involved though.
 
VC10er
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:32 pm

An 18+ hour flight is hard to do for most humans in Y. I always take p.s to SFO and then onto SYD. The break is a much welcome, stretch your legs etc. Even in C or F to Sydney (or SIN) I prefer the break! I haven't done the SQ from EWR to SIN just for that reason alone, as wonderful as SQ is.

However you question begs A and B for a lighter, midsize sub orbital solution  
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mogandoCI
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:41 pm

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 12):
If they really want the upper hand, they should start SFO - BNE and SFO - MEL nonstop, allowing one stop from all major US markets via their hub.

Agreed, but both could exist.

SFO-SYD/MEL/BNE trio for the major city 1-stop to Australia, then the IAH-AKL for 2nd-tier cities connection (connects to smaller ones like Adelaide, Perth, Cairns, etc).

Keep SFO-SYD on at least 772 size. Make the rest 787. LAX-SYD is the wildcard - with that much capacity, maybe UA should chase yields not volume.

ps : IAH-SYD is not crucial for UA since they have a proper hub in SFO already. Save those planes for SFO-Asia and IAH/EWR to South America

[Edited 2011-12-27 06:45:32]
 
fruitbat
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:44 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 14):
However you question begs A and B for a lighter, midsize sub orbital solution  

You mean one of these?

http://www.eads.com/eads/int/en/news/press.20110621_eads_zehst.html
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Gabrielz
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:44 pm

There is certainly enough premium O&D traffic to support an all-biz class flight daily NYC-SYD. The carriers currently historically serving the route however, lacked the ULH motivation - until now. CO management is very sensitive to the idea of providing good nonstop service from EWR to capture corporate contracts and premium flyers. Once the combined UA has a chance to absorb the route structure, pax demand and new aircraft orders, they will add more long-haul service at EWR.

All that having been said, only DL today has the aircraft with the legs to do the route, and they would need 3-4 77L to make it work.
 
zrs70
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:34 pm

Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?
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migair54
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:40 pm

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
It does seem like a stretch, but then again I always thought the SQ all-biz SIN-EWR service was a stretch, but it's been going on for, what, 4-5 years now?...

Correct, but SQ has a lot of regional feeder flights from south east asia, however any other carrier on the SYD-NYC will have very few feeder flights in both ends because they possibility to go to LAX, SFO, DFW or IAH in the future and then fly to Australia BNE, SYD, MEL... Imagine business class pax flying from MEM or MCI to SYD... they can easily go to the destination avoiding a 20 hours flight...

I´m sure in the future we will see more flights out IAH and DFW to Australia offering excellent connexions to the most part of the USA, Mexico and Canada. However I don´t think we will see NYC-SYD flight.

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 17):
All that having been said, only DL today has the aircraft with the legs to do the route, and they would need 3-4 77L to make it work.

That´s why to make the flight they must be sure that it´s going to be a huge success, because dedicate so many planes and crews to do it will be very very expensive.
 
etops1
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:57 pm

Can the A380 do it ??
 
migair54
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:05 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 20):
Can the A380 do it ??

No with a good load.
 
mandala499
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:38 pm

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 5):
While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...

777-200LR FCOM Performance Dispatch - Enroute, "LRC with Step Climb" (the 0.84M numbers are... err... worse I think... don't have it open in front of me at the moment). I just took some rough numbers... so they're by no means precise.

Mandala499
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B747forever
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:13 pm

Quoting zrs70 (Reply 18):
Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?

Well if you want to go from JFK to SYD there is no other way than spending that much time in a airplane.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:35 pm

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 17):
There is certainly enough premium O&D traffic to support an all-biz class flight daily NYC-SYD.

Can you back that up with figures or is that just a gut feeling?

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?

The advantage is providing a halfway decent product to their customers ( I say 'halfway decent' because the A330 operating the sector still has the obsolete Mark I sloping Skybed and also lacks premium economy)
 
richierich
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:20 pm

Quoting zrs70 (Reply 18):
Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?
Quoting B747forever (Reply 23):
Well if you want to go from JFK to SYD there is no other way than spending that much time in a airplane.

B747 is right - and some ultra long haul flights are in the air that long or almost that long now. So I don't think that is the argument. And logically a direct flight will be shorter than two flights, so I would think shaving an hour or two off the current travel time would be a bonus.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 3):
I think you have to bear in mind that QF can barely make a daily A330 into JFK work even though it gets fed at LAX by flights from AKL/MEL/BNE and SYD, I really don't see how a theoretical SYD-JFK would work even if there was an aircraft capable of operating it.

For one thing, Sydney and New York are the largest cities on their respective continents, so it would surprise me a lot that this wouldn't work (ditto SYD-LON, while London is not necessarily the largest city in Europe, it is clearly the most important for Australians based on cultural and financial ties). The fact an A330 JFK-SYD connection doesn't work out well is simple - there is a lot of competition for a transcon USA connection to SYD flights from the West Coast. There is zero competition for a direct flight. For example, if I live in Boston or Washington and want to get to SYD, where am I going to go? I'm not going to fly to JFK just to connect through LAX; I would fly directly to LAX.

Stating the obvious here, NYC-SYD would be a very very long flight but I think both cities are more than large enough to support a daily flight. The reason it hasn't been done yet is most likely because it can't be reasonably flown with the limitations of current equipment. It's probably an hour too long to do comfortably with even the most long-haul of equipment, the 77L.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 24):
Can you back that up with figures or is that just a gut feeling?

Everything I said above is opinion and not backed-up with fact. Please feel free to agree or disagree.
None shall pass!!!!
 
ben175
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:30 pm

Just out of curiosity here, I know it is completely out of this world and never going to happen, but would a 77L be able to fly PER-LAX in a 3-class configuration with a full load? Or would payload restrictions be too high for this route to work?
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:43 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 25):
Everything I said above is opinion and not backed-up with fact. Please feel free to agree or disagree.

Fair enough, we are all entitled to our opinions, but the reason I asked was because you said:

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 17):
There is certainly enough premium O&D traffic to support an all-biz class flight daily NYC-SYD

To me, that sounded more like a statement of fact than an opinion, hence my asking you whether you could provide back up for it.
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 7:20 pm

QF was within a heart beat of ordering the 77L for SYD-NYC service a few years ago. Well connected insiders said that it was a done deal. Not sure what scuttled the decision, might have been the 2008 down turn.
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:57 pm

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 26):
Just out of curiosity here, I know it is completely out of this world and never going to happen, but would a 77L be able to fly PER-LAX in a 3-class configuration with a full load? Or would payload restrictions be too high for this route to work?

Assuming 30k winds on the nose, westbound, and standard fuel capacity the payload would be something in the order of 32t which would be about max passenger load plus a bit . Probably not too attractive.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:09 pm

Quoting nycdave (Thread starter):
GC Mapper gives a route of under 8700nmi, and all the wikis give a 77L design range of over 9300nmi...

Those range figures don't consider winds or cargo, just passengers and baggage. You have to add up to 15% to get a real world range figure when looking at numbers quoted by manufacturers.

JFK-SYD is also 361 nm further (8646 nm) than the longest current nonstop route, SQ's EWR-SIN A345 all-business class service (8285 nm). Winds can also be strong on westbound transpacific flights. EWR-SIN benefits by being able to use either the polar route where winds are normally much lighter, or a longer eastbound transatlantic routing over Europe where strong tailwinds sometimes offset the longer distance.
 
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mariner
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:10 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 28):
QF was within a heart beat of ordering the 77L for SYD-NYC service a few years ago. Well connected insiders said that it was a done deal. Not sure what scuttled the decision, might have been the 2008 down turn.

I guess it wasn't a done deal.

I can't imagine there would be enough traffic to support SYD-JFK as a non-stop. The majority of Australians doing business in the US need to spend a deal of their time on the west coast.

mariner
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flylku
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:16 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
Wind. It may work going one way, but not on the way back. A 40kt headwind component over 8500nm already makes your net air distance 9300nm or so...

I thought the SQ flight from New York to Singapore always heads eastbound to take advantage of the prevailing winds in the Northern Hemisphere. Can anyone confirm?

Isn't the problem with a half way around the world flight that traverses the equator is that you get a benefit from a tailwind for only half the flight. Once you cross the equator the prevailing winds come from the opposite direction.
...are we there yet?
 
koruman
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:29 pm

The problem is a lack of demand.

The Business / First Class market NYC-SYD would probably be around 8-10 passengers per day - the rest of the passengers on the current A330 LAX-JFK feed in from around Australia, particularly the Melbourne and Brisbane flights which serve states doing better economically than Sydney's New South Wales.

And then there is the leisure travel problem. And it makes this route utterly unviable.

Very few East Coast residents are going to travel to Australia for a vacation given their very short annual holiday time by western standards. And those outside NYC can already fly one-stop to Sydney via Dallas, Los Angeles, Vancouver, San Francisco or Honolulu, so we are talking the NYC market ONLY - not the East Coast. But even with NYC, there are big problems. Air NZ and Virgin Australia both derive around 35% of long-haul profits from Premium Economy, but none of the NYC market is familiar with a paid Premium Economy product, and so they're not willing to pay twice as much as discount Economy for it. So the NYC-SYD market would be catastrophic.

Which leaves Australia - East Coast. But again, the demographics and economies of Australia argue against a SYD-JFK flight. For a start, the non-Sydney market is almost four times as large as the 5 million Sydney market, and Sydney is a nightmare airport for domestic-international transfers. Any passenger from Brisbane or Melbourne or Cairns or Gold Coast (combined market of nearly 10 million) is either going to fly to LAX from BNE or MEL or hop onto Air NZ at their local airport and connect at AKL without a domestic-international transfer required.

But then the figures provided recently by LAXintl show that the situation is worse than that, because far more Australians actually choose to visit southern California or Hawaii than the US East Coast. And even if they do visit the US East Coast, they generally are entitled to 4 or 5 weeks' annual leave per year, and so will combine New York with southern California or Hawaii as their gateway in each direction rather visit it as a stand-alone trip.

So basically there is insufficient demand for SYD-JFK.

[Edited 2011-12-27 14:29:40]
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:20 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
I guess it wasn't a done deal.

I can't imagine there would be enough traffic to support SYD-JFK as a non-stop. The majority of Australians doing business in the US need to spend a deal of their time on the west coast.

It was probably the same proponents of the SYD-LHR non-stop service.
 
777STL
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:45 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 33):

So basically there is insufficient demand for SYD-JFK

Not only that, but I would imagine that it would be difficult to make such a route economically viable even *if* you had a technically capable aircraft and even *if* you had the demand. ULH are so few and far between due to the extraordinary cost to operate them which thus makes it difficult to derive a revenue from them. Would you pay x to fly NYC-LAX-SYD or would you pay x+$500 to fly the non-stop? It seems your greatest demand for a nonstop would come from less price elastic premium business traffic, which you've already correctly pointed out is in short supply.
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FlyboyOz
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:29 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 23):

Well if you want to go from JFK to SYD there is no other way than spending that much time in a airplane.

I would not imagine that I would like to stay inside the aircraft for over 20 hours. Too long to get there and It's not good for our healthy! Less than 15 hours should be enough!
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B747forever
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:40 am

Quoting FlyboyOz (Reply 36):
I would not imagine that I would like to stay inside the aircraft for over 20 hours. Too long to get there and It's not good for our healthy! Less than 15 hours should be enough!



Yes, it might be many hours, but there is no other way if you want to get from JFK to SYD. There is no way that you can make the journey time shorter.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
aviateur
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:03 am

Quoting nycdave (Thread starter):
Why is there no direct SYD-JFK service? Shouldn't that be inside the envelope for the 77L, and maybe just a squeaker for the 345? Or are there issues, capability-wise I missed or don't understand? It seems like, if it were possible, it'd be a surefire winner given the number of Aussies in NYC, and the global banking connections... GC Mapper gives a route of under 8700nmi, and all the wikis give a 77L design range of over 9300nmi...

A couple of things here.

First, be wary when citing mileage stats when it comes to aircraft range. It's not about miles, it's about HOURS. And hours can vary greatly over long distances, what with prevailing winds, etc. The difference of a single hour can nix a potential route when you weigh in alternate/diversion airports, etc.

And even if.... just because a route is possible doesn't mean that it's practicable or profitable. If so, rest assured SOMEBODY would be flying it! There are zillions of routes that SEEM to make sense, but that, for whatever reason, aren't flown.


Patrick Smith





[Edited 2011-12-27 18:08:43]
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
The Coachman
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:06 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 33):
Sydney is a nightmare airport for domestic-international transfers.

While true, you could route the flight as an international flight between the MEL and SYD international terminals and you get over this problem at SYD. The market for MEL and SYD together would be 7-8 million.
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CBRboy
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:24 am

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?
Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 24):
The advantage is providing a halfway decent product to their customers ( I say 'halfway decent' because the A330 operating the sector still has the obsolete Mark I sloping Skybed and also lacks premium economy)

  
Most Australians and Americans I know who have experienced US domestic airline service vs QF service will pay extra to travel QF.
 
cschleic
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:29 am

Quoting aviateur (Reply 38):
And even if.... just because a route is possible doesn't mean that it's practicable or profitable. If so, rest assured SOMEBODY would be flying it! There are zillions of routes that SEEM to make sense, but that, for whatever reason, aren't flown.

True, although in some cases, airlines have had to wait for the right plane to come along. SQ waited years for a plane that could do LAX - SIN non-stop. There probably was demand for some routes long before the 747SP came along. So there's a technology factor in it, too.
 
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:39 am

Theres certainly a demand for the route its just that there isn't enough of a demand that is willing to pay a premium to make it worth it. In fact i bet the vast vast majority likes the chance to get out of the plane for a bit on such an incredibly long route. Personally i would never want to get on a plane that long even if it was the same price

It has been rumored the reason they fly LAX-JFK is really for cargo and thats the main driver not sure if thats right but i could see it. That could be the cash driver over just ferrying the people to AA
 
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gegtim
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:01 am

As a huge fan of Concorde, why couldn't that aircraft have left JFK and flown over Canadian air space where it could achieve supersonic speed to go to Australia? It could have made the trip in what, 10 hours? Now I don't know the fuel range versus altitude versus head winds that Concorde would have encountered, but it is worth the education for me.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:15 am

Quoting gegtim (Reply 43):
As a huge fan of Concorde, why couldn't that aircraft have left JFK and flown over Canadian air space where it could achieve supersonic speed to go to Australia? It could have made the trip in what, 10 hours?

Concorde was far too short ranged to manage that. By the time you add in all the extra fuel stops I doubt if it would end up much quicker than going one stop subsonic.
 
nycdave
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:29 am

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 11):
It would be interesting to see a UA 787 EWR-SYD All Business Class.

None of the 787 have a design range in the same ULH neighborhood of the 77L and 345.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 15):
ps : IAH-SYD is not crucial for UA since they have a proper hub in SFO already. Save those planes for SFO-Asia and IAH/EWR to South America

Although, then, you have to ask why there's a DFW-SYD route -- though that benefits from the Qantas/OneWorld hub at SYD.

Quoting zrs70 (Reply 18):
Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?

As others have pointed out, the longest routes today aren't but a few hours shorter... and plenty of pax would rather do it non-stop than have to go through a connection, customs, re-checking, etc... that's why there's always a premium for n/s on ANY route.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 24):
Can you back that up with figures or is that just a gut feeling?

I have a similar gut feeling, for what it's worth (hey, why else would I have brought this up?  )

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 28):
QF was within a heart beat of ordering the 77L for SYD-NYC service a few years ago. Well connected insiders said that it was a done deal. Not sure what scuttled the decision, might have been the 2008 down turn.

Or just QF's shaky financial position and starting up their A380 ops making it a bit tough to, in addition, open up the world's longest-haul n/s.

Quoting koruman (Reply 33):
Very few East Coast residents are going to travel to Australia for a vacation given their very short annual holiday time by western standards. And none of them are familiar with a paid Premium Economy product, and so they're not willing to pay twice as much as discount Economy for it. So the NYC-SYD market would be catastrophic.

While I'll concede there isn't nearly the US/Oz leisure market that there is between the UK and Oz, NYC is where you'll find many of them. Wealth, as well as vacation time and benefits, are concentrated in the northeastern US. But what made me think of this more was the sheer number of Aussies I've been running into the past couple years in NYC. Especially with the dollar parity, the US has become a relative bargain both for leisure travelers and entrepreneurs. I wouldn't pin any NYC-SYD route on US leisure travelers in a million years... but on business pax and Aussie leisure travelers and ex-pats, I think the numbers MIGHT be there. If QF was seriously considering it, it's probably only a matter of time and money until they, or perhaps DL or UA, give it a shot. Only then will we know for sure.


By the way - THANKS to everyone up above who helped fill me in on the real-world restrictions on range. I kind of figured things like headwinds and load would have an impact, just wasn't sure how much.
 
thegeek
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 4:12 am

Quoting aviateur (Reply 38):
And even if.... just because a route is possible doesn't mean that it's practicable or profitable. If so, rest assured SOMEBODY would be flying it! There are zillions of routes that SEEM to make sense, but that, for whatever reason, aren't flown.

I would cite QF's performance on both BNE-LAX and SYD-DFW as counter examples. In both cases QF was very reluctant to start the route but it performed well after it started.
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 4:40 am

Great, question. I have often wondered how you could accomplish this route and I believe its called "The Kangaroo Route". I even thought of including a hyperbaric chamber so passengers could spend some time at sea level. This is a really tough route for several reasons:

1) Jet fuel weights about ~7lbs a gallon. There is simply too much weight to carry as fuel to make this economical.
2) Its too slow. For a 20 hours flight you would need at least 2 possibly 3 crews with room to rotate them.
3) I am not sure USAF runs their C-17's on 20 hr flights even with in flight re-fueling. I do know some planes will occasionally take off with cargo and 50% gas and then immediately refuel mid-air for a long journey.
4) It really only makes sense to do this if you can either get more energy out of jet fuel ( a lot more) or go really fast. The SR-71 refueled multiple times on missions and then peeled out at Mach 3+. I could see a SST doing something similar.

I can't see this being feasible without mid-air refueling for passenger airplanes which I have advocated for in the past. Even then, I am not sure what the point is if you can't do it a lot faster.

I can see blimps doing this as a super cheap 1 week cruise in the future though. Much like ocean cruise ships..
 
nycdave
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:13 am

Not to fan any unneccessary flames, but Airbus has suggested that the A359-R would have a fully loaded range of over 10,000nmi -- plenty to accomplish JFK-SYD nonstop... now, whether it will actually live up to performance expectations...

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 47):
1) Jet fuel weights about ~7lbs a gallon. There is simply too much weight to carry as fuel to make this economical.

Not necessarily so -- there are routes that are flown with full tanks, and a fully fueled 77L with minimum cargo SHOULD be able to do this route. The question is, whether you can get people to pay enough of a premium to cover the fuel.
 
mandala499
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RE: Why No JFK-SYD Service?

Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:23 am

I see that several references were made to "if SIN-EWR/LAX can do it, why not SYD-JFK?"
Well... SQ has a nice large market feeding it long haulpax to LAX and EWR... CGK and KUL... connecting it seamlessly through another airport.

Quoting The Coachman (Reply 39):
While true, you could route the flight as an international flight between the MEL and SYD international terminals and you get over this problem at SYD. The market for MEL and SYD together would be 7-8 million.

Now SYD? Domestic feed in Australia? Largest feeds:

Populations:
SYD: 4.6 million
MEL: 4.1 million
BNE: 2.1 million
Total: 10.8 million

Airports:
SYD: 36 million
MEL: 28 million
BNE: 20 million
Total:
84 million

SIN? Largest feeds:
Populations:
SIN: 5.2 million
KUL: 7.2 million
JKT: 28 million
TOtal: 40.4million

Airports:
SIN: 42 million
KUL: 34 million
CGK: 43 million
Total: 119 million

The numbers are there for SIN-EWR... for SYD-JFK??? Not quite sure.

Then add the cargo as well...

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 42):
It has been rumored the reason they fly LAX-JFK is really for cargo and thats the main driver not sure if thats right but i could see it. That could be the cash driver over just ferrying the people to AA

Spot on. Mass volume long-haul is driven by cargo revenue as well as pax revenue. And Cargo, can have various different levels of freedom rights than the passengers... hence, more revenue opportunity for the carier.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 45):
As others have pointed out, the longest routes today aren't but a few hours shorter... and plenty of pax would rather do it non-stop than have to go through a connection, customs, re-checking, etc... that's why there's always a premium for n/s on ANY route.

If it's plenty... then are the SIN-LAX/EWR non-stops always full while the 1 stopper is not? No, both cater to various market segments.

Quoting flylku (Reply 32):
I thought the SQ flight from New York to Singapore always heads eastbound to take advantage of the prevailing winds in the Northern Hemisphere. Can anyone confirm?

Not always, but almost always. When the tailwinds aren't good enough (northern summer), they'll go Polar for EWR-SIN.

Quoting flylku (Reply 32):
Isn't the problem with a half way around the world flight that traverses the equator is that you get a benefit from a tailwind for only half the flight. Once you cross the equator the prevailing winds come from the opposite direction.

The jetstreams are eastbound anyways, it's the rotation that changes (anti-clockwise to clockwise).
Anyways:
SIN-EWR can go roughly SIN-TPE-CTS-ANC-EWR.
EWR-SIN can go roughly EWR-OSL-KBL-DEL-SIN

SINEWR: 8285nm
SIN-ANC-EWR: 8744nm Give it a nice 60kt tailwind TPE-ANC (typical), and you'd lose 450nm... hey, that gets this route as short as going on the GC non-stop line!   
Go back this way, and the jetstream will cost you an extra 600nm or so... Doesn't look good.

EWR-OSL-EVN-DEL-SIN:
8935nm... but, nice 60kt net tailwind EWR-OSL, and a nice 60kt tailwind EVN-DEL, it takes out 600nm, so it'll go back to roughly 8300nm... optimize this further, then going east, can end up being shorter than going west.

Would this work SYD-JFK?
Let's apply that 8935nm EWR-OSL-EVN-DEL-SIN, we get 8300nm with the tailwinds... and add SIN-SYD onto it... about 3400nm or so, and add 60kt tailwinds between say, Broome-Sydney... cuts about 200nm... so 8300 + 3200 = 11500nm..
Kiss the route goodbye !
Now, that 9300nm westbound JFK-SYD looks bad enough!

(Those who ask why fly over SIN and not fly over HKG, well, airway structures make the SIN overfly shorter than the HKG overfly... to which some refuse to believe like those who believe the earth is flat!!)

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 34):
It was probably the same proponents of the SYD-LHR non-stop service.

Oh God! Not that one again!   

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !