SA7700
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787 Production Thread Part 2

Tue Jan 03, 2012 5:30 pm

Hello ladies and gents,

This is a continuation thread of part 1 which can be found here: 787 Production Thread Part 1. Please feel free to continue your discussion on this topic in this thread.

Enjoy the forums!

Regards,

SA7700
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:19 pm

So we have three delivered in 2011, with two more expected to be delivered this week, all of which are for NH. The mix, I believe, is three domestic and two international birds.

Boeing has yet to give guidance on any additional 787 deliveries for January, but more are expected. The final certification of the GEnx propulsion system (plane + engine) is expected in January and this could see at least one each delivery to JA and AI.

The CHS FAL is online and assembling aircraft, with first deliveries scheduled towards the middle of the year. PAE is moving from 2.5 per month to 3.5 per month.

Boeing has a few dozen 787s at PAE that are undergoing re-work. In the case of the earliest builds, this rework is extensive and they may be pushed back in favor of completing later builds that require less work. So some of these early builds might not be delivered until the later part of 2012, even though they were first assembled years prior.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:34 pm

It's looking like Boeing will be able to deliver JA806A (L/N40, ZA117) this month but not definitive yet. I personally don't think they'll be able to delvier any GEnx machines until next month. It depends on when they can finish off certification testing using ZA236.
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Jet-lagged
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:19 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
So we have three delivered in 2011,

Well, glad that they got 3 out the door last year.


I happened to look at the beginning of the thread "787 Production Thread Part 1" where OP United787 as OP started it off on October 18th with the following:

" Now that 2 787s have been delivered, I would love to see a 787 thread similar to the A380 production thread:"
etc. etc.

3 - 2 = 1. At this rate, we'll have an additional Part for this thread with every bird!!  
 
ual747-600
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:43 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
It's looking like Boeing will be able to deliver JA806A (L/N40, ZA117) this month


Are you talking about December 2011 or January 2012?

UAL747-600
 
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United787
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting jet-lagged (Reply 3):
" Now that 2 787s have been delivered, I would love to see a 787 thread similar to the A380 production thread:"
etc. etc.

3 - 2 = 1. At this rate, we'll have an additional Part for this thread with every bird!!

I hope not but I never I figured that the last thread would only last as long as 1 delivery  
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:08 am

Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 4):
Are you talking about December 2011 or January 2012?

Jan 2012.
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747ata32
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:53 pm

How much 787's has Boeing build until today? Are they all stored at PAE or are some ferried to other places like MWH and MHV?
Are there recent photo's available from PAE showing the stored 787's?
Flown: 733, 734, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 743, 744, M11, 752, 763, F100, F70, SF340, A319, A320, A321, A332, 772, 77W, D10, D
 
Tradewinds
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:41 pm

I'm a bit confused about all of this, so apologies if I'm asking something obvious, but what's the status on the JL birds? I know BOS-NRT is supposed to start in April (aren't JL already selling seats for that route?) -- what will they do if the aircraft for which they've sold seats is delayed beyond the start of that service?
Tradewinds
 
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:17 pm

Quoting 747ata32 (Reply 7):
How much 787's has Boeing build until today? Are they all stored at PAE or are some ferried to other places like MWH and MHV?
Are there recent photo's available from PAE showing the stored 787's?

All but one are in Everett. One in San antonio for re-work and change incorporation. See Matt Cawby's site for pics at Everett:

http://kpae.blogspot.com/
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:17 pm

Quoting Tradewinds (Reply 8):
what will they do if the aircraft for which they've sold seats is delayed beyond the start of that service?

They'll substitute other equipement, perhaps a 777-200.
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starrion
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:23 pm

Today is the big day right? The three ANA birds should be heading home to Japan?

Is there any timeframe for that?
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:36 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 11):
Today is the big day right? The three ANA birds should be heading home to Japan?

Is there any timeframe for that?

Only two. They are expected to leave around 6pm and 7:15pm (Seattle time) but that was as of last Sunday so I don't know if the times have changed since then.
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starrion
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
Only two. They are expected to leave around 6pm and 7:15pm (Seattle time) but that was as of last Sunday so I don't know if the times have changed since then.

Understood. God forbid they abide by a schedule they set three whole days ago. Forecasting has not been their strong suit.
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Tradewinds
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 10):
They'll substitute other equipement, perhaps a 777-200.

Cheers, that makes sense. It would kind of put a damper on the fanfare of the new route opening, though...
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:47 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 13):
Understood. God forbid they abide by a schedule they set three whole days ago. Forecasting has not been their strong suit.

To be fair, once Boeing hands over the plane, it's up to the customer to get the pilots over and the flight-plan filed. So any delay/miss would be due to NH, not Boeing.
 
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
To be fair, once Boeing hands over the plane, it's up to the customer to get the pilots over and the flight-plan filed. So any delay/miss would be due to NH, not Boeing.

If it did indeed hand over like other sources have stated........   
 
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:40 pm

Just checked with my source and both aircraft are still planned to leave as I reported some days ago. Arrival gates have even been assigned for them at HND so they are definitely expecting them!   
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:49 pm

Quoting RobK (Reply 16):
If it did indeed hand over like other sources have stated........

Not that it makes a huge difference, but analysts today reporting that Boeing only delivered 2 787s in 2011.   
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...11%20Aircraft%20Delivery%20Targets

Quote:
Boeing planned to deliver about 15-20 787 and 747-8s by year-end as part of an overall 2011 target of about 480 deliveries, with the bulk of the newer model deliveries made up of 747-8Fs. However, investment banking firm Sterne Agee says, “Based on our checks, we expect Boeing to report only 11 deliveries in total for these two programs for 2011, with only two 787 deliveries versus expectations of at least five.”

I guess we'll know for sure after Boeing's dog and pony show tomorrow.
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 18):
Not that it makes a huge difference, but analysts today reporting that Boeing only delivered 2 787s in 2011.     

I expect they're counting departures from PAE.
 
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:32 am

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ANA9397   

Should be JA805A.

807 will be ANA9399 if/when it files.

[Edited 2012-01-04 16:33:47]
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:49 am

JA805A is flying out at 6 pm as ANA 9397 and will be at HAneda's gate 206 tomorrow morning.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ANA9397

JA807A may follow at 7:15pm and if it does it will be parked next ot 805A at gate 205 at Haneda
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RobK
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:55 am

JA807A now CANCELLED due to further tech issues..............

Is due to fly yet another acceptance flight tomorrow.

ETA: and JA805A did indeed officially deliver to ANA on Dec 30 as per airlinereporter. Source : Boeing. So total 787 delivery count for 2011 = 3.  sarcastic 

[Edited 2012-01-04 18:06:35]
 
starrion
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:27 am

wow. these repeated tech issues must be inspiring huge confidence in ANA
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:38 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 23):
wow. these repeated tech issues must be inspiring huge confidence in ANA

They keep taking delivery of them... *shrug*

I'm sure they find it annoying, but planes go tech every day and these birds have been stationary for a very extended period of time.

[Edited 2012-01-05 05:22:48]
 
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United787
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:22 pm

So...we were looking at possibly 4 deliveries in December and now we only have one delivered and flown out:

L/N 31 - JA805A - 12/30/2011

...in addition to the 2 already delivered:

L/N 8 - JA801A - 9/25/2011
L/N 24 - JA802A - 10/13/2011

...with the other 3 status:

L/N 9 - JA804A (Status unknown)
L/N 41 - JA807A (Supposed to have been flown out yesterday but still having tech issues - delivered?)
L/N 42 - JA808A (Awaiting first flight)

Is Boeing trying to rush these out the door too quick because of some artificial deadline (end of year - earning calls etc.) You would think they would have learned that lesson!

BTW, the amount of different codes that refer to the same aircraft is quite confusing! For the purposes of discussion in this thread, can we choose one? I don't know which one is most appropriate...we used to use the ZA # but I am thinking that is the most irrelevant now that testing is done...
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:35 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 25):
BTW, the amount of different codes that refer to the same aircraft is quite confusing! For the purposes of discussion in this thread, can we choose one? I don't know which one is most appropriate...we used to use the ZA # but I am thinking that is the most irrelevant now that testing is done...

The ZA number is always changing so that's not a reliable way of tracking the aircradft. Line number is more reliable.

Also L/N 40 is close to being done. It may deliver this month.
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cmf
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:15 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 23):
wow. these repeated tech issues must be inspiring huge confidence in ANA

It all depends on what the issues are. Since we don't know... Hopefully something will leak out soon.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:29 pm

Boeing received an order on dec. 27 for 25 787-9. I wonder who could it be?
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wolbo
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 28):
Boeing received an order on dec. 27 for 25 787-9. I wonder who could it be?

Could it be the booking of the AF/KLM order? That order was for 25 787s and so far it hasn't been booked by Boeing (nor has the AF/KLM order for 25 A350s been booked by Airbus).
 
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United787
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:45 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 28):
Boeing received an order on dec. 27 for 25 787-9. I wonder who could it be?

AA finally confirming their order?
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 30):
AA finally confirming their order?

Given their current status in Chapter 11, would they be able to do that without a judge's permission? That would make it somewhat public knowledge, no?
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:12 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 31):
Given their current status in Chapter 11, would they be able to do that without a judge's permission? That would make it somewhat public knowledge, no?

They would have to receive permission from the Bankruptcy Judge. That could have happened and it's being kept as a UFO until a formal announcement is being made.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:53 pm

Quoting wolbo (Reply 29):
Could it be the booking of the AF/KLM order? That order was for 25 787s and so far it hasn't been booked by Boeing (nor has the AF/KLM order for 25 A350s been booked by Airbus).

I think this is more than likely.

Quoting United787 (Reply 30):
AA finally confirming their order?

Don't think this is likely.
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robt760
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:34 pm

What's the status of LAN's 2 aircraft that are due for delivery 2Q 2012? Very little discussion about them. I don't even recall seeing any photos of them at PAE. Any updates?
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Fri Jan 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Getting word that JA807A, fourth 787 for ANA should deliver around the 8th and flyaway around the 10th. No word on JA804A as of yet.
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ual747-600
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:48 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 35):
Getting word that JA807A, fourth 787 for ANA should deliver around the 8th and flyaway around the 10th. No word on JA804A as of yet.


On October 28 you posted a 787 projected delivery spreadsheet on your site. How realistic do you think that schedule is based on what you know now? Boeing's short/long term planning (ie deliver 4 787's in December) seems so inept on this program I don't know how they can confidently predict 70 more deliveries this year. I'd be surprised if they get 2/3's of that number based upon performance to date.

It has to be really difficult being the customer and trying to plan their operations aound Boeings anemic 787 delivey performance.

UAL747-600

[Edited 2012-01-06 18:22:44]
 
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PM
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:51 am

Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 36):
I don't know how they can confidently predict 70 more deliveries this year.

They haven't, have they? I thought it was 45.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 2:10 am

Boeing's 2009 guidance was 80-90 for 2012. Bernstein Research late last year projected 61 for 2012.

There is still travel work on assemblies arriving at the FALs, but they're said to be closing in on eliminating that. Then again, they've been saying that for years.

But assuming they can, then in theory that should be around 3-4 planes a month rolling off the line that can be directly prepped for customer delivery.
 
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PM
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:19 am

I was going by this.

"According to its Z24 schedule, formalized in November, Boeing plans to deliver 45 787s to customers in 2012, or approximately three to four each month, down from the 61 it had planned in Z23."

Jon Ostrower in FLIGHT three days ago.
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 4:57 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 39):
"According to its Z24 schedule, formalized in November, Boeing plans to deliver 45 787s to customers in 2012, or approximately three to four each month, down from the 61 it had planned in Z23."

Does anyone know the time elapsed between Z23 & Z24 schedules?

Another estimate of 2012 deliveries:
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/bo...ery-target-heralds-big-2443566.php

Quote:
The analysts projected that Boeing would deliver 55 787s this year.

So, if we start from Boeing's 45, add on the shortfall from 2011 787 deliveries, we're getting close to agreement.

However, IMHO, it raises significant questions about Boeing's ability to get to 10 787s per month by the end of next year if there still only able to hit 4 per month by the end of this year from two production lines and including finishing off some of the dozens of partially completed 787s.

2012 will not be a dull year and it will be interesting to see what Boeing's guidance is for 787 production on January 25th.
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par13del
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:07 pm

Quoting starrion (Reply 23):
wow. these repeated tech issues must be inspiring huge confidence in ANA

I thought the two a/c presently in pax service were performing as expected, those are the birds that you are discussing with the confidence issue right? In any event, the a/c that they have in service and their performance is more important than a/c that have been sitting around the OEM yard being built.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 40):
However, IMHO, it raises significant questions about Boeing's ability to get to 10 787s per month by the end of next year if there still only able to hit 4 per month by the end of this year from two production lines and including finishing off some of the dozens of partially completed 787s.

It's all down to the subs, frankly. They need to be able to provide 10 fully completed (as in no travel work) shipsets per month. If they can, then it shouldn't be a problem for Boeing to put them together.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):

It's all down to the subs, frankly.

I do not believe this. The bottleneck is pre-assembly and systems integration in Charleston, ex-Vought, ex-GlobalAeronautica, but these are no subs anymore, it's Boeing now. Who *are* the lower-tier subs, if any, that allegedly bog down the operation? Couldn't it rather be Boeing waiting for some redesigned parts to become available, as one commenter suggested on Seattle Times' aerospace blog?

Quoting scbriml (Reply 40):
hit 4 per month by the end of this year from two production lines and including finishing off some of the dozens of partially completed 787s.

It will be hard for Boeing to find takers for pre-LN20 airplanes. If reports that these are overweight by 13,500 lbs are accurate that's a whopping 65 passengers in terms of payload capacity. It will be interesting to see if pre-LN33 airplanes fare much better. Why was LN35 earmarked for completion of F&R with the GEnx when LN23 was readily available? Will also be interesting to see how long LN7-LN9 remain with ANA. I expect ANA to hand them back to Boeing and swap them for new airplanes within two or three years. Oh, wait...LN7 and LN9 are not yet delivered...
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:24 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 43):
The bottleneck is pre-assembly and systems integration in Charleston, ex-Vought, ex-GlobalAeronautica, but these are no subs anymore, it's Boeing now.

Well I consider them "subs" in that they produce the shipsets that are moved to the FAL, but yes, they're Boeing now. However, the Heavies are having issues, as well, as are Alenia. It appears only Spirit is producing shipsets free of travel work.

Anyway, my point is that final assembly is not the bottleneck, since PAE and CHS appear to screw the planes together quick enough and roll them out the door. It's all the travel work once the planes are rolled out the door (or while they're being staged to flow into and through the FAL positions) that is directly impacting the completion rate. So once all the shipsets arrive with no travel work required, Boeing should be able to put them together quickly and roll them off for cabin outfitting and delivery.



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 43):
It will be hard for Boeing to find takers for pre-LN20 airplanes.
NH is taking theirs. So are JL, AI, LA and AT. And VIPs are taking LN4, LN5 and LN6. Only CZ balked.



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 43):
If reports that these are overweight by 13,500 lbs are accurate that's a whopping 65 passengers in terms of payload capacity.

I'm positive that number is in relation to the original OEW planned back in 2004 with the 7E7-8. A miss that big compared to what Boeing expected LN007 to weigh empty is so massive that the plane literally could not be sold as no airline would be insane enough to accept a plane that had to be flown 1/3rd empty, even if it was free.

Heck, according to Boeing's ACAPs, the 787-8 has grown lighter in terms of manufacturer-spec three-class OEW between September 2007 and May 2011.

[Edited 2012-01-07 13:32:08]
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):

NH is taking theirs. So are JL, AI, LA and AT. Only CZ balked.

How do you know? Or better, how would you know, because your statement is not fully accurate.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
A miss that big compared to what Boeing expected LN007 to weigh empty is so massive that the plane literally could not be sold as no airline would be insane enough to accept it unless it was free.

Exactly.

Add band-aid to the side-of-body join (how much do airlines like that?), windshield popping, thermal expansion issues in rear fuselage, patched-over Alenia fuselage sections, reworked horizontal stabs, re-re-re-wired electrics, fasteners that have been replaced over and over again, and what have you. Not to mention that some of these planes have been in open storage for three years.
 
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par13del
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:59 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 45):
Not to mention that some of these planes have been in open storage for three years.

Ahh, should provide evidence that non-metal fuselage could stand up to the elements, after all, Washington state is not open desert with no rain and dry air. Now the question is does Boeing have any staff actually looking at the open air storage and compiling numbers for later study.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:12 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 45):
How do you know?

Boeing's spending a heck of a lot of time, money and effort to get them ready for delivery. Seems a lot of waste if nobody wants them. *shrug*
 
ssteve
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:47 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
So once all the shipsets arrive with no travel work required, Boeing should be able to put them together quickly and roll them off for cabin outfitting and delivery.

Once the outsourcing innovations work as long promised, the outsourcing innovations will work as long promised, eh?
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 Production Thread Part 2

Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
Boeing's spending a heck of a lot of time, money and effort to get them ready for delivery. Seems a lot of waste if nobody wants them. *shrug*

So you only infer that "NH is taking theirs. So are JL, AI, LA and AT. And VIPs are taking LN4, LN5 and LN6."

Obviously some airframes are more or less 'put on backburner', while others that are being worked on are actively being remarketed.

My conclusion is different from yours.

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