eastern023
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TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:22 am

After TAM merges with LAN would there be any new destinations especially in North America? DFW, LAX to work better with new OneWorld buddy AA? Would we see a GRU-IAD with JJ to compete with UA's flight (Varig, former star member used to fly to IAD)? Perhaps LHR to link to BA's network? Would we also see more flights to link up with LAN's network? UIO or GYE in the plans? Please tell me what you think...

I missed that JJ already flies to LHR, but that adds more to this argument that TAM should start flying more to the homes of its new OneWorld partners...


Rudy form IAD

[Edited 2012-01-03 18:29:02]

[Edited 2012-01-03 18:36:22 by srbmod]
AA will Rise Again!
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:47 am

Even LA give up on IAD. I see more chances of some routes from secondary markets in Brazil such as:

EZE-BSB-MIA
EZE-CNF-JFK
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:04 am

I believe that post merger TAM will look to open GRU/GIG-AKL-BNE/MEL to match LA and drive home the advantage before any competition arrives.
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SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:08 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
Even LA give up on IAD. I see more chances of some routes from secondary markets in Brazil such as:

LAN gave up on IAD? LAN plans on launching new routes to the U.S. from its hub at LIM, including IAD...
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:19 am

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 3):
LAN gave up on IAD? LAN plans on launching new routes to the U.S. from its hub at LIM, including IAD...


[ Edit

yes but they have postponed IAD, right ?
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:23 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
yes but they have postponed IAD, right ?

They have. Maybe they will come back to it at some point.

Quoting eastern023 (Thread starter):
DFW, LAX to work better with new OneWorld buddy AA?

I dont think so. They are currently partners with UA and UA has a similar operation at LAX. Nothing would change that would make them see it any differently. As for DFW, AA already serves GRU and GIG. It may make AA go 5-7x weekly on DFW-GIG, but thats it. No reason for them to fly here.
It is what it is...
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:34 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
yes but they have postponed IAD, right ?

Some routes were postponed and some routes were either cut or suspended due to a lack of long-haul a/c because of the delays of the B-787s. However, that is no longer the situation. LAN just received three new B-767-316ERs and has increased frequencies this month on certain routes for the high season, i.e. SCL-IPC, SCL-LAX, SCL-MEX, SCL-MIA, SCL-CUN-MIA, SCL-PUJ-MIA, etc. LAN is also operating SCL-MCO-MIA-SCL 2x weekly starting next Sunday for a month and LIM-IPC resumes next month. This year, LAN will receive 7 new B-767-316ERs and 5 B-787-8s in order to strengthen long-haul operations. Next year, LAN will receive 4 new B-767-316ERs, as well as more B-787s...
 
dellatorre
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:46 am

Don't expect significant news out of LATAM in terms of destinations to the US. What we could see is some flights out of CNF and BSB to JFK, GIG to MCO and perhaps GRU to LAX.

The chances of a TAM flying to DFW & ORD are dismal.

I do believe some inroads into US wll be made from LIM hub, but nothing outstanding. This whole LIM hub strategy seems very good on paper but so far has been very slow. I personally believe the potential of LIM is overrated, especially when considered the lack of connections with Brazil. West Coast USA will be limited to LAX and SFO, as I highly doubt SEA, PDX, LAS, PHX, SAN could work from LIM. East Coast already has good links with the markets that really matter: MIA & JFK. What other prospective destinations could be launched? YYZ, IAD, BOS, PHL, ORD, ATL? I think MCO has an advantage.
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:07 am

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 7):
I do believe some inroads into US wll be made from LIM hub, but nothing outstanding. This whole LIM hub strategy seems very good on paper but so far has been very slow. I personally believe the potential of LIM is overrated, especially when considered the lack of connections with Brazil.

Yet passenger traffic grew by 9.1%* during November at LIM even though the runway is closed from 1AM to 7AM due to the installation of the ILS III, which has caused some airlines to temporarily reduce flights until February 1st. Next month, LIM-CUN increases to a daily service, LIM-PUJ increases to a daily service, LIM-ROS increases to a daily service, LP launches LIM-HAV, LA resumes LIM-IPC, etc.

*http://www.fraport.com/content/fraport-ag/en/investor_relations/traffic_data0/latest_figures.html



Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 7):
West Coast USA will be limited to LAX and SFO, as I highly doubt SEA, PDX, LAS, PHX, SAN could work from LIM.

Interestingly, LAN is interested in launching services to one destination mentioned above in the near-term. Guess which one:
http://www.lan.com/pt_br/sitio_perso...-para-os-estados-unidos/index.html
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:45 am

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):

That's not a service announcement. Thats just a fare advertisement.
It is what it is...
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:50 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
That's not a service announcement. Thats just a fare advertisement.

Did I state that LAN is launching services to XXX? I simply stated that LAN is interested in launching services into a destination listed on that page. Oh I forgot, LAN has over 43 wide-body a/c on order for regional routes...
 
dellatorre
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:40 am

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
Yet passenger traffic grew by 9.1%* during November at LIM even though the runway is closed from 1AM to 7AM due to the installation of the ILS III, which has caused some airlines to temporarily reduce flights until February 1st. Next month, LIM-CUN increases to a daily service, LIM-PUJ increases to a daily service, LIM-ROS increases to a daily service, LP launches LIM-HAV, LA resumes LIM-IPC, etc.

Regarding Central America & Mexico I do believe LIM is better positioned, although facing strong competition from Copa and Avianca/Taca. When it comes to Brazil, so far few things changed. No direct services with GIG, POA, CWB, CNF, VCP, BSB, SSA, REC, FOR and MAO.

IGU almost doesn't count.
 
jfk777
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:28 pm

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 2):

I believe that post merger TAM will look to open GRU/GIG-AKL-BNE/MEL to match LA and drive home the advantage before any competition arrives.

Sao Paulo to Australia is an awful long way to go. Santiago is the best gateway for a flight to that part of the world for LATAM. With Qantas soon launching flights to SCL OW will increase its South America to Australia schedules, LAN will almost certainly increase their fligths.
 
Arcano
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:33 pm

I'm not sure if the strategy of the merged airline will be to reply each one's individual strategy in the other, which would tend to cannibalization at some point.

For fictional example, if only LAN flew from CCP to GIG and only TAM flew from GRU to MDE, what would be the point in LA starting MDE-GRU and TAM in CCP-GIG or anything that looks like replying each other network...
I mean, If TA started GRU-AKL-SYD they would be destroying value in LA's SCL-AKL-SYD which also depends on Brazilian demand to be sustainable; the same with LA starting LIS or Africa. It makes much more sense in terms of added value to let both airlines fully codeshare in markets where they don't compete.

It's like AF and KL in south america, they split the cities so no single one have to use too many aircraft to serve each city, they split destinations (as SCL) or share it (as GRU) only when there is enough demand for both, but at the same time no individual airline has to add more of their own metal to get stronger in the leg and the pax have more choice as one airline group offers more options (2 HUB) from their home airport.

This is the good and the bad of the fusion: while LATAM get stronger, they can complement and then guarantee demand for themselves so there will be more chances to open new routes as pax from many feeders can fill long range flights and we'll see more and more destinations coming out of LATAM network, likely from their hubs at LIM and GRU.
On the other side, the bad thing for us pax is that they won't compete, and competition gives us better fares and service, besides the fact that the airline being too big will always be entrance barrier to new competitors.

So now I wonder; after all, will both airlines have similar strategies and only making difference in destinations, or if they will sustain differences we see today: TA focused within Brazil and long range to Europe (and then Africa/Middle East, Asia), and LA connecting major and secondary cities within South America though LIM and then USA, Caribbean, Oceania.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
yes but they have postponed IAD, right ?

They have. Maybe they will come back to it at some point.

BTW, how is SFO doing?

Regards )(
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dellatorre
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 12):
Sao Paulo to Australia is an awful long way to go. Santiago is the best gateway for a flight to that part of the world for LATAM. With Qantas soon launching flights to SCL OW will increase its South America to Australia schedules, LAN will almost certainly increase their fligths.

I think LA should split their current SCL-AKL-SYD flight and offer dedicated services to SYD and AKL. Maybe even considering MEL if the SCL hub consolidates its leading position on the South America-Oceania market.
 
jfk777
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:25 pm

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 14):
I think LA should split their current SCL-AKL-SYD flight and offer dedicated services to SYD and AKL. Maybe even considering MEL if the SCL hub consolidates its leading position on the South America-Oceania market.

That would be progress, I just do not see GRU to SYD nonstop at this time as it has to be 16 hours flying time. LATAM doesn't need 777LR flights since most of what they fly is 8 to 11 hours fron Santiago, Lima, GRU and GIG.
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:12 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
, I just do not see GRU to SYD nonstop at this time as it has to be 16 hours flying time.

I did suggest it would probably be via AKL. GRU-AKL-Oz. GRU-AKL is only a similar flight time to SYD/BNE-LAX, which is well within 77W capabilities.
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:55 pm

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 11):
Regarding Central America & Mexico I do believe LIM is better positioned, although facing strong competition from Copa and Avianca/Taca.

LAN uses a "multi-hub multi-destination" system. BOG is also well situated for certain flights to Central America, the Caribbean, North America, etc. BOG is a brand new hub for LAN with its newest passenger affiliate, LAN Colombia.

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 11):
When it comes to Brazil, so far few things changed. No direct services with GIG, POA, CWB, CNF, VCP, BSB, SSA, REC, FOR and MAO.

LAN plans to add more regional flights between LIM and the Southern Cone, (including certain destinations in Brazil); which will enable LAN to open new routes to North America. LAN Perú S.A. will receive 6 new A-319s and 2 new B-767-316ERs this year. LAN Perú S.A. will also receive its first B-787-8 this year.

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 14):
I think LA should split their current SCL-AKL-SYD flight and offer dedicated services to SYD and AKL. Maybe even considering MEL if the SCL hub consolidates its leading position on the South America-Oceania market.

With what a/c? LAN only has 5 A-343s that are primarily used on the daily SCL-AKL-SYD service and the daily SCL-MAD-FRA service. The A-343s will be phased out starting in 2014 and replaced with B-787-9s. Another area that LATAM is interested in operating into is Africa, specifically South Africa.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:21 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 17):
Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 14):
I think LA should split their current SCL-AKL-SYD flight and offer dedicated services to SYD and AKL. Maybe even considering MEL if the SCL hub consolidates its leading position on the South America-Oceania market.

With what a/c? LAN only has 5 A-343s that are primarily used on the daily SCL-AKL-SYD service and the daily SCL-MAD-FRA service. The A-343s will be phased out starting in 2014 and replaced with B-787-9s.

This is a situation where regulatory reality is likely to over-ride commercial sense .... Australia's CASA is VERY conservative with regard to ETOPS/EDTO so it is likely that the 787's would need to continue to route via AKL for the foreseeable future regardless of range/performance or passenger demand. I would be very surprised to see CASA approve twins for non-stop Australia-South America flights regardless of how reliable they prove themselves to be. On the other hand, the New Zealand CAA have clear ( if strict) guidelines in place for EDTO and I don't foresee any issues with operating 787s on routes such as SCL/LIM/GRU-AKL - onward flights to Australia from AKL would be fine under the existing rules for CASA.
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:34 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 18):
This is a situation where regulatory reality is likely to over-ride commercial sense .... Australia's CASA is VERY conservative with regard to ETOPS/EDTO so it is likely that the 787's would need to continue to route via AKL for the foreseeable future regardless of range/performance or passenger demand. I would be very surprised to see CASA approve twins for non-stop Australia-South America flights regardless of how reliable they prove themselves to be.

LAN plans on operating the B-787-9s on the SCL-AKL-SYD route and plans on linking LIM with AKL/SYD. LAN may also use AKL as a stop for flights to Asia in the future; specifically cargo flights. Qantas is launching SYD-SCL 3x weekly in March in-cooperation with LAN; thus SCL will soon have non-stop services to/from AKL and SYD. QF already plans on operating the SYD-SCL route daily. CX is also very interested in serving SCL in-cooperation with LAN...
 
kiwiandrew

RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:06 am

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 19):
Qantas is launching SYD-SCL 3x weekly in March in-cooperation with LAN; thus SCL will soon have non-stop services to/from AKL and SYD. QF already plans on operating the SYD-SCL route daily.

I don't think LA should place too much reliance on their ever-changing partner QF. While LA have carefully and steadily built up the South America - NZ/Australia route QF's history is very much one of chopping and changing. IIRC they started with SYD-AKL-EZE on 744s, then pulled out altogether in favour of a codeshare on the LA SCL-AKL-SYD route, then QF announced non-stop SYD-SCL but before they ever started it they changed their minds and went for SYD-EZE instead. Now they have announced that they are pulling that route and replacing it with SYD-SCL from March this year... but whether that means that they will still be operating it 3, 6 or 12 months later is open to debate given their track record. I don't see the route going to A380, the 744 will be on it's way out in a few more years for QF, and CASA are highly unlikely to allow QF to operate the 787 on the route within the next few years. I suspect that in a couple of years at the latest QF will again pull out of South America and leave it to their partner LATAM.

I also wouldn't be too surprised if future OW member MH retime their flights to AKL to provide good connections to/from the LAN flights since MH are dropping their own services to Latin America. Then LATAM would have feed at AKL from SE Asia ( MH ) China and East Asia( CX /KA ) Australia ( QF) ( and potentially Japan if OW member JL ever re-introduce service to New Zealand now that they are discontinuing their codeshare on NZ services). Not too bad for a non OW hub.
 
SCL767
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:53 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 20):
I don't think LA should place too much reliance on their ever-changing partner QF. While LA have carefully and steadily built up the South America - NZ/Australia route QF's history is very much one of chopping and changing. IIRC they started with SYD-AKL-EZE on 744s, then pulled out altogether in favour of a codeshare on the LA SCL-AKL-SYD route, then QF announced non-stop SYD-SCL but before they ever started it they changed their minds and went for SYD-EZE instead. Now they have announced that they are pulling that route and replacing it with SYD-SCL from March this year... but whether that means that they will still be operating it 3, 6 or 12 months later is open to debate given their track record. I don't see the route going to A380, the 744 will be on it's way out in a few more years for QF, and CASA are highly unlikely to allow QF to operate the 787 on the route within the next few years. I suspect that in a couple of years at the latest QF will again pull out of South America and leave it to their partner LATAM.


Indeed, LAN has a solid history in operating into both New Zealand and Australia and LAN Chile was the first airline to operate non-stop between South America and Australia. Also, LAN ordered the A-343s specifically to operate into AKL/SYD. Perhaps LATAM will consider ordering quads in the future which will enable LAN to operate non-stop into SYD and other destinations...

LAN Chile B-707 at SYD:

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Photo © John Krepp Photography

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 20):
I also wouldn't be too surprised if future SA)">OW member MH retime their flights to AKL to provide good connections to/from the LAN flights since MH are dropping their own services to Latin America. Then LATAM would have feed at AKL from SE Asia ( MH ) China and East Asia( CX /KA ) Australia ( QF) ( and potentially Japan if SA)">OW member JL ever re-introduce service to New Zealand now that they are discontinuing their codeshare on NZ services).

Also, LATAM may even operate its own flights to Asia via AKL in the future. TAM's Vice President, Mauricio Amaro, recently gave an interview stating that LAN and TAM may double their fleet size and will most likely fly to Asia.

Quote:
Lan Airlines SA, Latin America’s largest airline by market value, and Brazil’s Tam SA may double their fleet and start flying to Asia in the next 10 years, said Tam’s Vice President, Mauricio Amaro, in an interview with El Mercurio. Amaro said that in the next decade “is feasible to double our fleet in that period to 450 or 500 airplanes. And is also probable that we start flying to Asia, something that’s not possible today,” Santiago-based newspaper El Mercurio reported.
Tam and Lan May Double Fleet, Fly to Asia in a Decade
 
dellatorre
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:25 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 21):
Also, LATAM may even operate its own flights to Asia via AKL in the future. TAM's Vice President, Mauricio Amaro, recently gave an interview stating that LAN and TAM may double their fleet size and will most likely fly to Asia.

If LATAM chooses to fly to Asia on its own metal (still unlikely in the current scenario) it will be from anywhere besides AKL. There are countless and more effective ways of reaching Asia from South America than going through New Zealand.

Even going through Middle East is faster.
 
dcajet
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RE: TAM New Destinations After Latam Merger

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 21):
LAN Chile was the first airline to operate non-stop between South America and Australia

To be precise, the flight you quote was just a non passenger carrying, route proving flight. There is no way a 707 could have made it with a pax load from Punta Arenas to Australia. Of course, credit must go to LAN for testing the route back in those days.

It is AR that made the route commercially viable, from a very timid, twice a month flight back in 1984, to what it has become today.
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