ChazPilot
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China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:25 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16421117

I know this isn't the first thread on this matter, but I think given today's official statement by Beijing it warrents a fresh one.

What say you, A-Netters?
 
HSVflier
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:45 am

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out......this is becoming much larger than aviation. But what does Europe have to leverage??? Looks like the order books in Seattle will remain full of chinese customers for a long time.
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MillwallSean
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:56 am

Quoting hsvflier (Reply 1):
. But what does Europe have to leverage???

Being Chinas largest exportmarket must mean they have some levarage...
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kaitak
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:59 am

I think it's a very important point of principle; Brussels has attempted to impose this unilaterally and there is no provisions in any of its bilaterals to do this. If they were to let the EU away with this, it would set a very unsatisfactory precedent in international affairs. The EU needs to recognise that it simply cannot act in this manner and if it will not accept this, then it will have to be taught - the hard way.

if China, India, the US, possibly Russia and a few others stand firm on this, to the extent that flights are stopped, how long will the EU hold out, given its economic crisis. Also, given that the EU is looking to China for help with the Eurozone crisis, this is an additional bargaining chip for China.
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:02 am

Quoting hsvflier (Reply 1):
But what does Europe have to leverage???

Huh...not much these days.

It's because we're broke we're taxing everything to oblivion !

At least the UK chancellor had the decency to admit green taxes on aviation are just to swell government coffers.

Civil aviation is bloated, it's too cheap to fly, there's too much competition/capacity and the LCC's make flying viable for trips where flying shouldn't really be an option.

Stag nights and hen do's....please.

The industry is a sitting duck.

Fewer flights and bigger more fuel efficient aircraft....that's what is needed.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:05 am

Again - this entire thing really all boils down to how far everyone else is willing to push this.

I don't care how altruistic and environment-loving the EU claims it is. If the rest of the world presented one unified front against this EU carbon tax - if the U.S./China/India rescinded all landing rights, Russia cut overflight rights, and Emirates cancelled all remaining A380 orders - the EU would back down in about 2.5 seconds.

The only question is whether or not the rest of the world is really going to stand up to it.
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:12 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
and Emirates cancelled all remaining A380 orders

Well they could play that card on any issue involving the EU.

German flight rights spring to mind.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:14 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
and Emirates cancelled all remaining A380 orders -

That would be dumb, considering that they have a lot to gain from the EU's tax, ridiculous as it is. They would have a serious decision to make whether to fight the tax or exploit it.
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Rara
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:30 am

I don't understand why China or the U.S. are against ETS. Perhaps someone can explain it to me?

As I wrote in the locked thread:

The plan is that all flights originating or arriving in the EU will be part of the trading, right? In other words, an airline has to acquire enough carbon credits for its total EU operations.

Why then do non-EU countries oppose this? If anything, it puts their airlines at a strategical advantage over EU airlines. EU airlines will have to cover 100% of their operations with carbon credits, while non-EU airlines will only have to do so for a much smaller percentage of their flights. For instance, LH from FRA to HKG will acquire the full amount of credits, while EK will only cover the FRA-DXB part, not the DXB-HKG part, which will make their product cheaper than LH's, everything else being equal. In this example, CX will have to pay the same as LH, because they fly direct, but never more (and they still can connect passengers out of HKG without carbon credits).

So in total, if any party is to suffer from the scheme, it's the EU itself, not the non-EU countries. The only reason for non-EU countries to oppose this, that I can think of, is that they're afraid the additional costs for a ticket will significantly diminish the market as a whole. I simply don't see that. I don't know the demand flexibility for intercontinental flights, but I doubt that a couple of Euros will bring demand down noticeably. Within Europe, that may be a different story, but that is again an intra-European issue. In short, I don't find a good explanation for the strong opposition from China, the US etc.

Can anybody help me out here?
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BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:42 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 8):
Why then do non-EU countries oppose this?

The biggest thing is that the EU ETS tax is levied on the whole flights, not just the part in the EU. The extra-territorial nature of the scheme is what irks a lot of people.

And it means that there is incentive to not fly directly to the EU. In other words, a SIN-DXB-LHR routing pays less tax than SIN-LHR, so as long as this tax stands I don't want to hear any more whining from European airlines that the Middle Eastern airlines are strangling them. Regulation has a cost.

Quoting Rara (Reply 8):
So in total, if any party is to suffer from the scheme, it's the EU itself,

Well, yes, which is part of why this whole thing is dumb.

Quoting Rara (Reply 8):
I don't find a good explanation for the strong opposition from China, the US etc.

Because their airlines are getting taxed for the majority of the flight which is not over the EU. It's like if you came to America and had to keep paying German VAT essentially.
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Cerecl
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:10 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
Again - this entire thing really all boils down to how far everyone else is willing to push this.

  
And I predict a compromise to be reached well before any flight to Europe has to be stopped. Europe needs all the friends it can make. Apparently the ETS will not come into effect until March (although in theory it started on the first day of 2012), plenty of time.
 
racko
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:21 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):
It's like if you came to America and had to keep paying German VAT essentially.

It's like if you flew to the US and had to obey US safety regulations for the whole flight.
 
Rara
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:38 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):

The biggest thing is that the EU ETS tax is levied on the whole flights, not just the part in the EU. The extra-territorial nature of the scheme is what irks a lot of people.

Anything else would really be silly. Emissions are produced because EU citizens or visitors to the EU fly to one place to another. What relevance does the flight's exact routing have?

Let's imagine for a moment that only the part over EU airspace would be subject to ETS. What would be different?
- It would still incur costs for airlines, both EU and non-EU. Fewer carbon credits would be set off by more scarcity and higher prices.
- EU and non-EU airlines would still be affected in the same way.
- It would create a huge bureaucratic effort to track and report every single flightpath.
- It would create all sorts of confusion and unfair effects. A flight from LA to London would require more credits than a flight from New York to Vienna. Where is the sense in that?

Altogether, switching from the extra-territorial method to a territorial one would make zero difference in the important areas and do more bad than good overall. So if people are "irked" by it, as you say, what would the alternative be.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):

And it means that there is incentive to not fly directly to the EU. In other words, a SIN-DXB-LHR routing pays less tax than SIN-LHR, so as long as this tax stands I don't want to hear any more whining from European airlines that the Middle Eastern airlines are strangling them. Regulation has a cost.

Yes, and we're willing to carry it. What concern is it to America and China?

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):

Well, yes, which is part of why this whole thing is dumb.

Alright, but again, why do America and China oppose it then? To save us from ourselves? Hard to imagine.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):

Because their airlines are getting taxed for the majority of the flight which is not over the EU. It's like if you came to America and had to keep paying German VAT essentially.

Well I do! I pay taxes for my flight to America. The taxes don't "end" at the EU border. They're paid all the way to my destination. The part of the flight over the Atlantic isn't magically tax-free.

Sorry, but I still don't get it.   I understand why someone would think that ETS is not a good idea in general. But seeing that non-EU airlines aren't disadvantaged in any way, I don't understand why their governments would get all dramatic over it.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
tayser
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:41 pm

Europeans have a flair for research and big government - let them do it, pay the tax and shut up - because at the end of the day, the money which will flow into European research institutes will eventually lead to new industries and technologies financed and exploited on a grander scale by the anglo-asian world eventually.

Swings and roundabouts.
 
PanHAM
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:49 pm

Fact is, the Chinese government instructed the Chinese carriers to ignore ETS. They will simply not pay.

That starts the procedure, the carriers will be fined, they will eventually be banned from laning et European airports because they niether pay ETS nor fines. The Chinese will retaliate and ban European carriers from Chinese Airports, eventually overflying as well, which will hurt the Europeans only on their way to Korea and Japan. Chinese carriers don't care too much about overflying Europe if the cannot operate here anyhow.

All that for the simple fact that the EU commission as well as the EU high court ignored the existing bi-laterals.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 9):
The biggest thing is that the EU ETS tax is levied on the whole flights, not just the part in the EU. The extra-territorial nature of the scheme is what irks a lot of people.

That is exactly why Kerosine is not taxed at all as extra - territorial taxation does not work. Whatever happens outside the jurisdiction of a country is not taxed. That goes for ocean rates, even the haulage from shippers door to the port is not subject to VAT.
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Cerecl
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:52 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
I don't understand why their governments would get all dramatic over it.

Because airlines or their customers will need to pay and governments should stand up for their industries/citizens. People complain when they have to pay more, it is natural. Watch the EU doing exactly the same thing if China/US/Japan/any other country big enough to make a difference institutes a new tax/charge on all car manufacturers. Surely you don't think BMW/RR/Mercedes/SAAB/Audi etc. will take it lying down?
 
Rara
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:19 pm

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 15):

Because airlines or their customers will need to pay and governments should stand up for their industries/citizens. People complain when they have to pay more, it is natural. Watch the EU doing exactly the same thing if China/US/Japan/any other country big enough to make a difference institutes a new tax/charge on all car manufacturers. Surely you don't think BMW/RR/Mercedes/SAAB/Audi etc. will take it lying down?

Yes they will need to pay, but their competitors will pay relatively more! And the additional costs are not high enough to bring total demand down. So non-EU airlines, unless I don't understand something, will face no disadvantage, if anything they will be a slight advantage. If BMW were told, all cars will cost the customer 10 Euros more, but Asian cars will be 15 Euros more, I don't think they'll send the German government into a rage about it to be honest.


I keep on looking for a "hidden reason", a rational reason for people to oppose ETS, but from I read and what you guys tell me, there seems to be nothing behind it. Just very mediocre analytics in the Chinese and American adminstrations appearantly. But I will keep looking and if find out something, I'll post it here.
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wdleiser
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 16):

Because all it is is an extra non necessary tax applied to an industry that has a very small environmental impact globally.
 
BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:59 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 11):
It's like if you flew to the US and had to obey US safety regulations for the whole flight.

Not exactly. Any nation can require certain standards for safety and security for airlines to fly there. And they can demand certain safety standards of airlines registered in that country that must be followed on all flights. The ETS is as if the FAA were to fine a foreign airline for safety violations on a flight that did not originate in, overfly, or land in the US.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
What relevance does the flight's exact routing have?

The EU is levying a tax on a flight outside its jurisdiction. The EU is taxing emissions that may be taking place on another continent.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
- EU and non-EU airlines would still be affected in the same way.

They are not affected equally now. EU airlines are at a disadvantage.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
A flight from LA to London would require more credits than a flight from New York to Vienna. Where is the sense in that?

It makes perfect sense. The EU can tax flights over their territory, so if you overfly more of the EU you pay more to the EU. Paying the EU emissions tax for carbon spewed over Canada or where ever just makes no sense.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Alright, but again, why do America and China oppose it then?

Because the EU is levying a tax on foreign airlines for the portion of the flight over foreign territory. It's a pretty plain violation of sovereignty.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Well I do! I pay taxes for my flight to America.

The ETS is as if you had to keep paying European gas taxes when you fill up in America.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
I understand why someone would think that ETS is not a good idea in general.

I don't. It sounds like something cooked up by Enron.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
I don't understand why their governments would get all dramatic over it.

It's an affront to their sovereignty.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
something
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:04 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 3):
The EU needs to recognise that it simply cannot act in this manner and if it will not accept this, then it will have to be taught - the hard way.

That is really cute.

It seems like most people think this is an unprecedented event. Following the news regularly helps understanding the dynamic of international relations and especially China is very predictable.

This is a lot of hot air and the EU will and should give them a middle finger about this. Do you have any idea how many shenanigans China has pulled on Europe just last year, like granting LH daily A380 flights into PEK, only to revoke them days before the service started. Boycotting Norway for honoring a Chinese political prisoner with the nobel prize.

You people need to read the news more often. Europe and China have had a hate-love relationship for the longest time. We can't live with them, we can't live without 'em (or don't want to, more like).

Giving credence to China's threats reveals not more but a significant information gap on the author's part.
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blrsea
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:17 pm

The green tax is just an additional tax to increase their revenue in the name of environment. Not a single penny goes out to any environment cause, just to bridge their deficits. Why then this sham of carbon credits etc? Just label it as "we are flat broke, need more money so this tax" and move on  

Why should passengers pay just for connecting through Europe? Many Indians fly to US through Europe, and we are taxed for flying on EU airlines! When middle-east airlines are poaching passengers from EU airlines, this dumb move will just accelerate the losses for EU airlines even more. And airlines from India which carry passengers through Europe too will suffer.
 
PezySPU
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:18 pm

Quoting wdleiser (Reply 17):
Because all it is is an extra non necessary tax applied to an industry that has a very small environmental impact globally.

And very, very thin profit margins.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 18):

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
I don't understand why their governments would get all dramatic over it.

It's an affront to their sovereignty.

  
 
aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:22 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 18):
The ETS is as if the FAA were to fine a foreign airline for safety violations on a flight that did not originate in, overfly, or land in the US.

Considering that the ETS applies only to those flights that do take off or land in the EU or overfly it, one has to wonder how you arrived at that comparison.

By the way, EU Allowances are currently so cheap that they'll hardly make a difference in any airline's financial results:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PNXCSPT2:IND

[Edited 2012-01-05 07:29:14]
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UALWN
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:54 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
if the U.S./China/India rescinded all landing rights, Russia cut overflight rights, and Emirates cancelled all remaining A380 orders - the EU would back down in about 2.5 seconds.

Either that, or the EU would retaliated by rescinding all landing rights to US/China/India/UAE airlines.

Quoting wdleiser (Reply 17):
Because all it is is an extra non necessary tax applied to an industry that has a very small environmental impact globally.

The credit system is applied to all industries, and it is proportional to the environmental impact. For some reason, the airline industry has been exempted for 7 years. Not any longer.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 18):
The ETS is as if the FAA were to fine a foreign airline for safety violations on a flight that did not originate in, overfly, or land in the US.

Sorry but the comparison is flawed, because the ETS is not levied on flights that do not originate, overfly or land in the EU.
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commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:04 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 23):
Either that, or the EU would retaliated by rescinding all landing rights to US/China/India/UAE airlines.

Right, and like it said, that would be over in about 2.5 seconds. The EU - particularly as weak and vulnerable as it is (economically and institutionally) these days - needs the global market way more than the global market needs Europe. The EU would retaliate, it would escalate into a trade war, and the EU would quickly lose that war.

There is no question - at least to me - that the EU would lose. The only question is whether or not the U.S., China, Russia, India, etc. will push it that far.
 
UALWN
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:16 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 24):
The EU would retaliate, it would escalate into a trade war, and the EU would quickly lose that war.

Really? How do you know that?

Quoting commavia (Reply 24):
The EU - particularly as weak and vulnerable as it is (economically and institutionally) these days

Yeah, the US, instead, is swimming in money and is politically united behind its president...
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Rara
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:25 pm

Quoting wdleiser (Reply 17):
an industry that has a very small environmental impact globally.

... then again, you could say that about any industry out there.  
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 18):
The EU can tax flights over their territory, so if you overfly more of the EU you pay more to the EU. Paying the EU emissions tax for carbon spewed over Canada or where ever just makes no sense.

This would be correct if carbon dioxide had a local effect only. It doesn't, it has a global effect, thus it's irrelevant where it's emitted. In a perfect world, the cap&trade system would operate globally. Since it doesn't, the EU has to go ahead and regulate only the flights in its jurisdiction, i.e. flights that originate and terminate in Europe.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 18):

It's an affront to their sovereignty.

Mate, we're talking about companies which move people from A to B.   "Sovereignty" is really not the word you're looking for here. A country is sovereign in the sense that it can allow or disallow air traffic over its territory. It can regulate it, tax it, require aircraft's noses to be painted pink, whatever. Since we all believe in the free market, we agreed that any measures would have to be non-discriminatory, e.g. apply to all countries' airlines equally. Since that's the case, that's really all there's to it. There is no god-given right for Delta to fly to Rome.

Quoting blrsea (Reply 20):
Not a single penny goes out to any environment cause, just to bridge their deficits. Why then this sham of carbon credits etc? Just label it as "we are flat broke, need more money so this tax" and move on

Do some reading about the ETS, it's not designed to increase government revenue. We have other measures for that, incidentally they're called "taxes". In 2011, Germany introduced an air traffic tax. For a long-haul flight, it's 45 Euros per departure, payable by any airline, foreign or domestic. That tax is meant to generate government revenue, and it was never proclaimed to do anything else.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:35 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 25):
Yeah, the US, instead, is swimming in money and is politically united behind its president...

Let's face it..the transatlantic regions are all up to their eyeballs in debt.

Saying that though the EU is still the largest economy on the planet. We go down..they all go down. So I'm not sure about all this tit for tat discussion. Where would the Chinese be without us buying all the crap they make ??

Besides all that though when are we in Europe going to realise that nobody else gives a stuff about the environment and that if the truth be known these taxes are just a cash cow in cognito.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:49 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 25):
Really? How do you know that?

Because the EU is negotiating from a position of weakness.

Europe's economies are generally doing quite poorly, and Europe's airlines are already being squeezed considerably. European airlines need global markets far more than global airlines need Europe, and Airbus is heavily exposed to global airline industry, which in several notable cases (UAE, China) are either at the direct or indirect discretion of foreign governments, nearly all of which have expressed deep displeasure with this illegal carbon tax.

The U.S., Russia, China, India, etc. have to decide how far they want to push this. Then the EU has to decide whether or not it will become a trade war. But if/when it becomes a trade war, I see absolutely no way the EU is going to win.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 25):
Yeah, the US, instead, is swimming in money and is politically united behind its president...

The broader economic and political situation is far better, and more stable, in the U.S. than in Europe at the moment. Unlike with the EU, the U.S. is a single sovereign country with a unified political system that is under no threat of collapse, the U.S. dollar is in no danger of ceasing to exist, and the U.S. economy is still (at least as of now) projected to grow this year at a faster pace than Europe's economies (some of which are projected to actually contract considerably).

And, perhaps most importantly in this case, U.S. airlines are also far less threatened by this illegal carbon tax than EU carriers, which is of course precisely why European airlines have been among some of the most vocal opponents of the tax, and also precisely why Europe's airline industry is far more vulnerable to a trade war than America's.

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 27):
Saying that though the EU is still the largest economy on the planet.

... except that the EU isn't an economy. It isn't even a country.

[Edited 2012-01-05 08:51:38]
 
aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:52 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 27):
So I'm not sure about all this tit for tat discussion.

What you read in here is nothing but a tempest in a teacup, tantrums thrown by people who take delight at a possible war - even if it's "only" a trade war.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 28):
The broader economic and political situation is far better, and more stable, in the U.S.

Which network told you that ?

Quoting commavia (Reply 28):
... except that the EU isn't an economy. It isn't even a country.

Would you like to fly over here and tell certain people that ? I''ll pay. (First Class, suite at the Paris Ritz)

We are all so intertwined here in the EU, the whole damn thing is a house of cards so as far you are concerned in America we might aswell be a single economy.

It's not often an American president attends an EU summit....think on !!
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:36 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 26):
This would be correct if carbon dioxide had a local effect only. It doesn't, it has a global effect, thus it's irrelevant where it's emitted.

None of that makes it okay to violate sovereignty. Why don't the Europeans try to pass some environmental regulations for Mexican or Chinese factories? See how well that works.

Quoting Rara (Reply 26):
Since it doesn't, the EU has to go ahead and regulate only the flights in its jurisdiction,

But they aren't. They are taxing the portion of the flight outside it.

Quoting Rara (Reply 26):
A country is sovereign in the sense that it can allow or disallow air traffic over its territory.

"Over its territory." That's the key words. This tax is taxing the portion of the flight that is not over the EU. That is the problem.

Quoting Rara (Reply 26):
Since that's the case, that's really all there's to it.

Not when an American aircraft has to pay the EU for carbon emitted over Canada. The fact that some people don't see how backwards that is worries me.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:54 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 30):
Which network told you that ?

  

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 30):
Would you like to fly over here and tell certain people that ? I''ll pay. (First Class, suite at the Paris Ritz)

I don't need to tell anybody. The reality has been on display for all to see in recent months. Europe is hardly united, and it is hardly one economy. It is still, for all the decades of endless summits, speeches, and Euroblather, a collection of 27 countries with divergent national interests, geopolitical realities, and economic conditions, and that isn't going to change no matter how many press conferences Merkel or Sarkozy hold.

As such, no matter how much the EU wants to show the world how to be good, allegedly responsible environmental stewards by punishing civil aviation and imposing illegal taxes, the reality is that Europe's weak and vulnerable economies and unstable political situation make that unrealistic.
 
aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:04 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 31):
Not when an American aircraft has to pay the EU for carbon emitted over Canada.

The purpose of a flight from the US to an EU country is to get people to that EU country. All of the CO2 emitted, over Canada or elsewhere, is emitted for that purpose. Additionally, CO2 emissions affect the climate all over the world, no exceptions for anyone flying over anywhere.

As for connecting traffic, people can always choose to fly around the EU if the ETS really is a sufficiently horrifying violation of their personal freedom to warrant a hugely more expensive airfare. I doubt that this will happen, to be brutally honest.

Quoting commavia (Reply 32):
Euroblather

You're too funny.  rotfl 

[Edited 2012-01-05 10:09:18]
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mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 32):
The reality has been on display for all to see in recent months. Europe is hardly united, and it is hardly one economy


Spain, Italy, Portugal and even France are staring into a precipice. We are untited and one economy in the sense that if one goes under we will all follow very quickly. The shockwaves would ripple out around the globe like a tsunami and the banks...well....let's not even go there.

The global economy is one hit away (natural, terrorism, war) from disaster....there's alot of tension out there right now but let's just hope it doesn't happen.
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commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:26 pm

Quoting aloges (Reply 33):
Additionally, CO2 emissions affect the climate all over the world, no exceptions for anyone flying over anywhere.

Okay, but that still doesn't make it legal. Just as the EU - whether its affected by global carbon emissions or not - cannot tax or regulate the carbon emissions coming from a factory in Shenzen, it also can't tax carbon emitted by an airline soaring over the Atlantic or Siberia.

Quoting aloges (Reply 33):
As for connecting traffic, people can always choose to fly around the EU if the ETS really is a sufficiently horrifying violation of their personal freedom to warrant a hugely more expensive airfare. I doubt that this will happen, to be brutally honest.

I will be equally brutally honest. I think it will definitely happen - indeed, it already is. As Europe becomes a more expensive place to fly (and/or just do business in general), people will definitely avoid it and seek out more competitive alternatives. Witness the rise of Dubai, as an example. This will only speed that process along - especially if politicians and Eurocrats continue to ratchet this tax up as a way to continue to raise more revenue for cash-starved governments (which is of course the whole point of this anyway). For a passenger going, say, New York-Mumbai, a flight nonstop or connecting over Dubai will incur zero carbon tax, while one over Europe will. That's but one example.
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:49 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
Witness the rise of Dubai, as an example. This will only speed that process along - especially if politicians and Eurocrats continue to ratchet this tax up as a way to continue to raise more revenue for cash-starved governments (which is of course the whole point of this anyway). For a passenger going, say, New York-Mumbai, a flight nonstop or connecting over Dubai will incur zero carbon tax, while one over Europe will.

Oh not Dubai again.

It would be nice to imagine that in the future the 'vast' majority if not all people flying between New York and Mumbai will do so on either an American or an Indian carrier non-stop.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
commavia
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:58 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 36):
Oh not Dubai again.

It would be nice to imagine that in the future the 'vast' majority if not all people flying between New York and Mumbai will do so on either an American or an Indian carrier non-stop.

It was merely an example to describe why I believe this tax - and others like it - will harm European carriers. (And, alas, it appears that many European carriers seem to agree.)
 
ScottB
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:00 pm

Quoting aloges (Reply 22):
By the way, EU Allowances are currently so cheap that they'll hardly make a difference in any airline's financial results:

Sure, they're cheap today. What about some day in the future when they could add hundreds of euros to the cost of a ticket? Only the nose is under the tent, but behind that nose is a big, smelly camel.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
- It would create a huge bureaucratic effort to track and report every single flightpath.

How is that any different from the current system? It would be simple enough to come up with some sort of standardized inside-EU-aerospace number for any flight path. Moreover, ATC reporting systems are sophisticated enough to do that sort of computation on an automated basis if needed.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
- EU and non-EU airlines would still be affected in the same way.

Not quite true, as the "free" allowances are computed based on an airline's computed emissions as of a date in the past. A non-EU airline adding service to Europe would not be competing on a level playing field with an incumbent EU carrier.

Quoting Rara (Reply 26):
Since we all believe in the free market, we agreed that any measures would have to be non-discriminatory, e.g. apply to all countries' airlines equally. Since that's the case, that's really all there's to it. There is no god-given right for Delta to fly to Rome.

Except... while EU courts (unsurprisingly) have ruled that the tax is permitted under the bilaterals, other governments do not believe that to be true.

Quoting Rara (Reply 16):
I keep on looking for a "hidden reason", a rational reason for people to oppose ETS, but from I read and what you guys tell me, there seems to be nothing behind it. Just very mediocre analytics in the Chinese and American adminstrations appearantly.

Even if one axiomatically accepts the contribution of man-made carbon dioxide emissions to global warming, schemes which seek to limit those emissions will be ineffective unless they are applied globally, or at the very least on every significant player. Using taxes to increase the cost of petroleum-based fuels in the E.U. or U.S. will simply shift consumption of those fuels to other nations where those taxes are not applied. Moving to higher-cost non-fossil-fuel sources of electricity for an industry may very well shift production capacity in that industry to countries where producers do not face those costs.
 
mham001
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:00 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 16):
I keep on looking for a "hidden reason", a rational reason for people to oppose ETS, but from I read and what you guys tell me, there seems to be nothing behind it.

Most of the remarks here have missed the mark. It has more to do with whether treaties signed by sovereign nations can be ignored by a larger body. The precedence should not be established for various reasons but those who should oppose this the most are those same sovereign Euro nations.

Imagine if the rest of the world decided that all other treaties in effect with those European nations are now null and void, exactly as the EU has said?
 
mikey72
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
It was merely an example to describe why I believe this tax - and others like it - will harm European carriers.

Lol - yeah I know what you mean. I'm just not sure what we can do about it. UK flyers get taxed up the ying yang as it is.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
UALWN
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:22 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 28):
Unlike with the EU, the U.S. is a single sovereign country with a unified political system that is under no threat of collapse

Have you already forgotten the latest showdowns between Congress and Obama, which have put the US on the brink of default, and which have not really been solved but just pushed into the near future? The debt-ceiling crisis, the deficit cutting crisis, etc.

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 34):
Spain, Italy, Portugal and even France are staring into a precipice.

Big exaggeration. Spain's debt stands at about 65% of GDP. For instance, the US's is above 90%.
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aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:27 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
Okay, but that still doesn't make it legal.

How so? The Court of Justice of the European Union has ruled that it is legal. Do you possess higher legal qualifications than those judges?

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
it also can't tax carbon emitted by an airline soaring over the Atlantic or Siberia.

It can if said airliner has taken off from or is going to land in the EU - just like the US can demand large amounts of information on air travellers flying to the US.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
As Europe becomes a more expensive place to fly, people will definitely avoid it and seek out more competitive alternatives.

Surely they will simply choose whichever alternative works best for them. If ORD-TUN-RUH (with detours to avoid EU airspace) existed and became cheaper and more attractive than e.g. ORD-FRA-RUH, that option would attract more and more passengers. Instead, I'm pretty sure that a $3 surcharge as introduced by DL is very far indeed from making people change their travel habits.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
Witness the rise of Dubai, as an example.

Yes, and your point is? Over the years (i.e. on average), passenger numbers at FRA have grown. So have those at AMS, CDG, LHR and MAD. If DXB et al get a larger portion of the growth due to their ideal locations and "aviation for all, all for aviation" policies, so be it. It will at worst keep our infrastructures from overflowing for a while longer; I don't know if you've flown through FRA, but it's always under badly needed construction.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
especially if politicians and Eurocrats continue to ratchet this tax up as a way to continue to raise more revenue for cash-starved governments (which is of course the whole point of this anyway).

It's not a tax, it's a certificate trade. Germany's own government has introduced an additional air travel tax.

If you reduce your CO2 emissions beyond the politically intended point, you get to sell the remaining certificates and make a profit on top of your already improved operative efficiency. If you don't meet the target, you'll have to buy certificates - which are currently at record low prices anyway.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
As Europe becomes a more expensive place to [...] do business in general, people will definitely avoid it and seek out more competitive alternatives.

It's interesting that you should say that. The ETS has been in place for years, with an exemption for airlines, yet we have not seen a collapse of the European industrial base. Instead, a solid productive sector is exactly what is carrying Germany through the current financial crisis. Oil prices, exchange rates and many other factors pose far greater risks than the ETS ever could.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
For a passenger going, say, New York-Mumbai, a flight nonstop or connecting over Dubai will incur zero carbon tax, while one over Europe will. That's but one example.

Again, the ETS surcharge will always cause a minuscule price difference unless an EU airline decides to operate a fleet of highly inefficient aircraft and trie to compete with, say, EK's more efficient fleet on NYC-BOM. And even then you would have to wait for the price of the certificates to rise sky-high for it to make a more meaningful difference than the increased fuel cost of an inefficient fleet.
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BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:27 pm

Quoting aloges (Reply 33):
The purpose of a flight from the US to an EU country is to get people to that EU country.

Yes it is, but until that flight crosses into EU airspace how it gets there is completely out of the EU's jurisdiction.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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huaiwei
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:30 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 34):
We are untited and one economy in the sense that if one goes under we will all follow very quickly.

It is quite ironic to read that comment, especially from someone based in the United Kingdom.

What you have just described can happen (and has repeatedly happened) in places outside the EU. If the EU is truly a single economy, then let us quit talking about a recession in one EU country while another experiences spectacular growth at the same time.

It is well known through endless academic papers and public surveys that the EU is only as united as its German and French bureaucrats imagine it to be. The reality on the ground is hardly close.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 31):
Not when an American aircraft has to pay the EU for carbon emitted over Canada. The fact that some people don't see how backwards that is worries me.

  

And that indifference is apparent in this quote:

Quoting something (Reply 19):
This is a lot of hot air and the EU will and should give them a middle finger about this. Do you have any idea how many shenanigans China has pulled on Europe just last year, like granting LH daily A380 flights into PEK, only to revoke them days before the service started. Boycotting Norway for honoring a Chinese political prisoner with the nobel prize.

Landing rights offered to foreign airlines to touch down on its sovereign land is certainly within its sovereign rights. China is not denying Lufthansa landing rights in a third country. Boycotting Norway involves a decision on where the Chinese choose to spend their own money on, again their own sovereign right. China is not telling Norway not to invest in a third country.

Both activities does not in anyway question the sovereignty of any other country, in the same way the ETS does. Trying to justify the EU's unilateral action based on China's past actions is flawed at best.

If a real trade war ensues, we shall see who's middle finger remains standing.
It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
 
aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:37 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
What about some day in the future when they could add hundreds of euros to the cost of a ticket?

Please calculate how much a single EUA would have to cost for that to happen.

Do you really believe that EU politicians want to destroy the union's entire economy? That's what would happen if the price for EUAs ever rose that high.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 43):
Yes it is, but until that flight crosses into EU airspace how it gets there is completely out of the EU's jurisdiction.

I think the EASA would like to have a word with you... among others.

Anyway, if that was the case, it would of course be reciprocal, so that cute little APIS "where are you staying" bondoggle would have to go out the window.
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aloges
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:42 pm

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 44):
Both activities does not in anyway question the sovereignty of any other country, in the same way the ETS does.

How exactly does a small and avoidable fee that only applies to flights into or out of EU territory limit the sovereignty of any nation?

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 44):
If a real trade war ensues, we shall see who's middle finger remains standing.

I should hope that there are at least a few grown-ups present in the committees that are working on this... the kind of person who doesn't shout "Hooray, trade war!" whilst waggling two middle fingers; which is apparently what some a.netters expect from international negotiations.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
UALWN
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 43):
Yes it is, but until that flight crosses into EU airspace how it gets there is completely out of the EU's jurisdiction.

Actually, that's not quite true. Ask the airlines in the EU's black list, TAAG, for instance.

And, as I'm sure you're aware of, TATL flights inbound for the US have to go though all sort of loops and hoops before they even leave the gate in Europe. So I guess the US considers that it does have jurisdiction on those flights, even outside the US airspace.
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BMI727
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:49 pm

Quoting aloges (Reply 45):
Anyway, if that was the case, it would of course be reciprocal, so that cute little APIS "where are you staying" bondoggle would have to go out the window

The US and any other country can set a list of requirements for passengers to enter the country. There is nothing wrong with requiring certain information at a certain time otherwise they will not be allowed in, it's in essence a very brief visa application.
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mham001
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RE: China Vs EU ETS Update

Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:52 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 41):

Big exaggeration. Spain's debt stands at about 65% of GDP. For instance, the US's is above 90%.

But fails to mention the horrific numbers from other EU countries. All that means little though, it is the confidence investors have in buying that debt. The EU states are having some real issues with that right now.

Quoting aloges (Reply 46):
I should hope that there are at least a few grown-ups present in the committees that are working on this... the kind of person who doesn't shout "Hooray, trade war!" whilst waggling two middle fingers; which is apparently what some a.netters expect from international negotiations.

Are you suggesting the original treaties are now null and void? Wouldn't any negotiations on ETS verify that?