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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:04 pm

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".


*AA DFW-ANC MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*AA DFW-DSM APR 8>5 MAY 8>5 JUN 8>5 JUL 8>5 AUG 8>5 SEP 8>5
*AA DFW-EGE JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*AA DFW-JAC JUL 0>1.1 AUG 0>1.1 SEP 0>1.0

AB LAS-DUS MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3

AF IAD-CDG FEB 1.5>1.3

AM FAT-GDL FEB 0.3>0.4 MAR 0.9>0.3 APR 1.0>0.8
AM LAS-MEX MAR 3>1.5
AM LAS-MTY MAR 0.5>0.4
AM LAX-GDL MAR 3>2
AM MIA-MID MAR 0.4>0.3
AM ORD-MEX FEB 3>1.8 MAR 2>1.8
AM ORD-ZCL MAR 0.4>0.3
AM SAT-MTY MAR 0.6>0.7
AM SMF-GDL FEB 0.8>0.9 MAR 0.9>0.3 APR 1.0>0.8

AT JFK-CMN AUG 1.7>1.6

BR SFO-TPE JUL 1.5>1.7 AUG 1.6>1.7 SEP 1.3>1.5

Some short term cuts at CLE it appears
CO CLE-ATL APR 5>3
CO CLE-CVG APR 3>1.4
CO CLE-LGA MAR 8>7
CO CLE-NAS JUN 0.1>0 JUL 0.1>0
CO CLE-PIT APR 4>3
CO DEN-BIS FEB 0>0.9
CO DEN-DRO FEB 0>0.8
CO DEN-MTJ FEB 0>1.0
CO DEN-PIA FEB 0>0.9
CO EWR-BDA JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.4 AUG 1.0>1.2
CO EWR-CHS APR 3>4
CO EWR-GCM JUL 0.3>0.1
CO EWR-MBJ JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 0.9>0.7
CO EWR-NAS JUL 1.1>2 AUG 0.9>1.3
CO EWR-PTY JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.3>1.4
CO EWR-PVR JUL 0.3>0.1
CO EWR-SAL JUL 0.1>0.3
CO EWR-STT JUN 0.5>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3
CO EWR-TPA APR 6>7
CO GUM-SPN SEP 0>6
CO IAD-ALB FEB 0>1.5
CO IAD-BTV FEB 0>0.8
CO IAD-BUF FEB 0>1.0
CO IAD-CLE FEB 0>5 MAR 0>4
CO IAD-EWR FEB 6>7 MAR 5>6
CO IAD-ORF FEB 0>1.1
CO IAD-PIT FEB 0>1.4
CO IAD-PVD FEB 0>0.9
CO IAD-SYR FEB 0>1.3
CO IAH-ABQ APR 6>4
CO IAH-ACA MAY 0.7>0.5
CO IAH-AGU JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.2
CO IAH-AMA APR 3>4
CO IAH-ATL APR 7>8
CO IAH-BHM APR 7>6
CO IAH-BOS APR 4>5
CO IAH-CUU JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.2
CO IAH-DEN FEB 8>9 MAR 8>9
CO IAH-DGO JUN 0.5>0.6 JUL 0.7>0.8
CO IAH-GRR APR 2>1.0
CO IAH-JAX APR 5>4
CO IAH-LFT APR 8>9
CO IAH-LIR JUN 1.9>3 AUG 0.9>1.1
CO IAH-MBJ JUN 0.9>1.0 JUL 1.0>1.1
CO IAH-MGA JUN 1.9>3 JUL 2>3
CO IAH-MID JUN 0.7>0.9
CO IAH-MLM MAY 2>1.8
CO IAH-MZT JUN 0.9>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7
CO IAH-PBC JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.2
CO IAH-PHX APR 5>4
CO IAH-QRO JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
CO IAH-SAP JUN 1.1>1.9 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.4
CO IAH-SJD JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 3>2
CO IAH-SJU JUN 1.2>1.3 JUL 1.1>1.3
CO IAH-SLP JUN 1.2>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.4
CO IAH-SLW JUN 0.9>1.0 JUL 0.9>1.0
CO IAH-TAM JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.3>1.4
CO IAH-TGU JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.3 AUG 1.0>1.1
CO IAH-TRC JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.2
CO IAH-TUS APR 5>4
CO IAH-VSA JUN 1.1>1.4 JUL 1.1>1.4 AUG 1.1>1.2
CO LAX-MRY FEB 0>0.7
CO ORD-CLE FEB 5>11 MAR 5>10 APR 11>12
CO ORD-EWR APR 7>8
CO ORD-FLL APR 1.0>2
CO ORD-GRR FEB 0>1.0
CO ORD-LIT FEB 0>0.8
CO ORD-TUL FEB 0>0.9
CO ORD-YOW FEB 0>0.9
CO SFO-BOI FEB 0>0.9
CO SFO-EUG FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-GDL FEB 0.5>1.0
CO SFO-GEG FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-ONT FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-PSP FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-RNO FEB 0>1.0

DL APN-PLN APR 0>1.7
DL ATL-ABQ MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
*DL ATL-CDG MAR 2>1.7 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
DL ATL-DEN MAY 7>8 JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9 SEP 7>8
*DL ATL-MSL APR 1.9>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0
DL ATL-SDF MAY 8>9 JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
DL ATL-VPS MAY 8>9 SEP 8>9
Wow, it appears to be a temporary suspension. Where does the slot go?
**DL BOS-CDG MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0
DL CVG-EWR MAY 4>3
DL DFW-MSP APR 6>7 MAY 6>7 JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7
DL DTW-JAX APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>0.9 JUN 1.8>0.8 JUL 1.9>0.9 AUG 1.9>0.9 SEP 1.8>0.8
DL DTW-PLN APR 1.9>0
*DL GLH-PIB APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
DL JFK-BOS MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
DL JFK-YUL JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
More cuts out West
*DL LAX-OAK MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
DL LGA-DCA APR 13>14 MAY 13>14 JUL 13>14 AUG 13>14
DL LGA-SAV MAR 1.6>1.2
*DL MEM-PIB APR 1.9>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0
DL MEM-TUL APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3 AUG 1.9>3
*DL MSL-TUP APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
DL SLC-YYC APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>0.9 JUN 1.8>1.6

G4 ATW-SFB MAY 0.2>0.1
G4 AZA-LAS MAY 0.9>1.6 JUN 0.3>1.7 JUL 0.3>1.7 AUG 0.3>1.7 SEP 0.3>1.7
G4 AZA-OAK JUN 0.1>0.9 JUL 0.2>0.8 AUG 0.1>0.9 SEP 0.1>0.9
G4 BLI-LAS MAY 1.9>4 JUN 0.8>4 JUL 1.0>4 AUG 0.8>4 SEP 0.8>4
G4 FAT-LAS JUN 0.1>0.8 JUL 0.2>0.9 AUG 0.1>0.9 SEP 0.1>0.9
G4 ICT-LAS JUN 0.1>0.9 JUL 0.2>0.8 AUG 0.1>0.9 SEP 0.1>0.9
G4 LAS-MFE JUN 0.1>0.8 JUL 0.2>0.8 AUG 0.1>0.9 SEP 0.1>0.9
G4 LAS-SCK JUN 0.3>1.1 JUL 0.3>1.1 AUG 0.3>1.2 SEP 0.3>1.2
G4 PSP-SCK MAY 0.2>0.1

IB JFK-MAD FEB 1.6>1.5
IB MIA-MAD FEB 1.3>1.2

*K5 JBR-MEM FEB 3>1.1 MAR 3>0

KE LAX-ICN AUG 4>3

*KL MIA-AMS MAR 0.5>0.4 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.7>0 JUL 0.7>0 AUG 0.7>0 SEP 0.7>0

OK DCA-JFK FEB 0>1.0
OK JFK-ORD FEB 0>1.0

PY MIA-GEO APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3

*SN JFK-BRU JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

SQ IAH-DME APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7

TA IAH-SAL FEB 1.6>1.1 MAR 1.5>1.0 APR 1.6>1.0 MAY 1.5>1.0 JUN 1.6>1.0 JUL 1.6>1.0 AUG 1.6>1.0 SEP 1.6>1.0
*TA MCO-GUA APR 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.5>0
TA MCO-SAL FEB 0.4>0.6 APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.6 SEP 0.4>0.6

TN LAX-CDG FEB 0.5>0.3

UA DEN-CLE APR 1.9>1.0 MAY 0.9>0
UA DEN-ELP APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
UA DEN-LGA APR 3>5
UA DEN-MEX JUL 0.1>0.3
UA DEN-PVR JUL 0.3>0.1
UA IAD-AUA JUL 0.1>0.3
UA IAD-CLE APR 4>0 MAY 4>0
UA IAD-EWR APR 4>0 MAY 4>0
UA IAD-MIA APR 2>3
UA IAD-PDX APR 1.0>0
UA IAH-DEN APR 1.0>0 MAY 4>3
UA IAH-IAD APR 3>1.2 MAY 4>2
UA IAH-PHL APR 1.0>1.8
UA ORD-ATL APR 8>7
UA ORD-BUF APR 5>4
UA ORD-BWI APR 5>4
UA ORD-CLE APR 7>1.0 MAY 7>1.0 JUN 7>6
UA ORD-CUN JUL 1.1>1.0
UA ORD-EWR APR 10>8 MAY 8>6
UA ORD-IAH APR 2>1.3 MAY 2>1.0
UA ORD-ICT APR 5>4
UA ORD-IND APR 9>10
UA ORD-LAX APR 11>10
UA ORD-MLI APR 7>6
UA ORD-PIT APR 5>4
*UA OTH-PDX APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
UA SFO-ACV APR 6>7
UA SFO-ORD APR 14>13
UA SFO-PSP APR 3>7 MAY 3>6 JUN 2>3
UA SFO-SNA MAY 7>8

UN MIA-DME APR 0>0.2 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3

*US CLT-DSM APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
*US CLT-OMA APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
US DCA-BDL APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
US DCA-BGR APR 0.1>2 MAY 0.1>2 JUN 0.2>2 JUL 0.1>2 AUG 0.1>2 SEP 0.2>2
*US DCA-BHM MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
*US DCA-FAY APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
US DCA-IND APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
*US DCA-ISP APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
*US DCA-LIT APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
*US DCA-MEM MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
*US DCA-OAJ APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*US DCA-OMA APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*US DCA-PNS APR 0>2 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
US DCA-SAV APR 0.3>1.3 MAY 0.3>1.3 JUN 0.3>1.3 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3 SEP 0.3>1.3
*US DCA-TLH APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*US DCA-VPS APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*US DCA-YOW MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
US PHL-ALB APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
US PHL-BGR APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
US PHL-BNA APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
US PHL-CLT APR 10>11 MAY 10>11 JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11 SEP 10>11
US PHL-CVG APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
US PHL-IAH APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
US PHL-IND APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
*US PHL-SLC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
US PHL-STL APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
US PIT-STL APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3 AUG 1.9>3

WS MCO-YHZ MAY 0>0.2
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:07 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO IAD-ALB FEB 0>1.5
CO IAD-BTV FEB 0>0.8
CO IAD-BUF FEB 0>1.0
CO IAD-CLE FEB 0>5 MAR 0>4
CO IAD-EWR FEB 6>7 MAR 5>6
CO IAD-ORF FEB 0>1.1
CO IAD-PIT FEB 0>1.4
CO IAD-PVD FEB 0>0.9
CO IAD-SYR FEB 0>1.3

Is this 9L or XE (or both)?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PIT-STL

Interesting to see an increase in this route with no other changes in the AX at risk flying. Have PIT-BDL/RDU changed in the past couple of weeks?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:32 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO IAD-ALB FEB 0>1.5
CO IAD-BTV FEB 0>0.8
CO IAD-BUF FEB 0>1.0
CO IAD-CLE FEB 0>5 MAR 0>4
CO IAD-EWR FEB 6>7 MAR 5>6
CO IAD-ORF FEB 0>1.1
CO IAD-PIT FEB 0>1.4
CO IAD-PVD FEB 0>0.9
CO IAD-SYR FEB 0>1.3

Is this 9L or XE (or both)?

Type is Q400, so that would be 9L, right?

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):

Interesting to see an increase in this route with no other changes in the AX at risk flying. Have PIT-BDL/RDU changed in the past couple of weeks?

You'd have to look back in past threads. I don't remember.  
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:40 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Type is Q400, so that would be 9L, right?

Yes. It's interesting not to see a corresponding cut at EWR. Is there that much slack in the DH4 fleet?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SouthernDC9
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:45 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL GLH-PIB APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2

This is odd, are they somehow combining the two cities for ATL service? MEM wouldn't make sense with this.
What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
 
KaiGywer
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 4):
This is odd, are they somehow combining the two cities for ATL service? MEM wouldn't make sense with this.

Appears they are combining several cities. APN-PLN out of DTW. GLH-PIB, MSL-TUP down south (either MEM or ATL)
“Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, an
 
Jetmarc
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:06 pm

What airline code is OK? Surely not Czech, unless theyre re-adding JFK with tags to ORD and DCA!
"Sucka, I'm gonna send you out on Knuckle Airlines. Fist Class!!" ~ Mr. T
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:11 pm

"What airline code is OK? Surely not Czech, unless theyre re-adding JFK with tags to ORD and DCA!"




It is interesting right?
 
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Polot
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:16 pm

Quoting jetMARC (Reply 6):
What airline code is OK? Surely not Czech, unless theyre re-adding JFK with tags to ORD and DCA!

Misfiled (or whatever, I don't know how the process works) codeshares.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:21 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 3):
Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Type is Q400, so that would be 9L, right?

Yes. It's interesting not to see a corresponding cut at EWR. Is there that much slack in the DH4 fleet?

There wasn't a cut, but there are several explanations.
1) The CO/UA schedules are horribly out of sync
2) They could be getting Q400s from Republic which is going down to a single Q400 in Feb/Mar I've heard and zero shortly after that. That isn't definite, though, but was something they were looking at.

According to the schedule, CO Q400 flying increased by 5% from JAN to FEB/MAR for what that is worth. So as of now it is a net increase.

Quoting jetMARC (Reply 6):

What airline code is OK? Surely not Czech, unless theyre re-adding JFK with tags to ORD and DCA!
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 7):
"What airline code is OK? Surely not Czech, unless theyre re-adding JFK with tags to ORD and DCA!"

It is interesting right?

It is Czech coded, but operated by a partner (DL?). It is just a code share that they filed as an operated flight. There is a field that filters those called "Duplicate" in the OAG SSIM submission and they filed it as blank rather than "Y". If I had noticed it I would have deleted it. There was also a CX flight from DFW to IAH that I noticed and removed. Those kinds of mistakes are fairly routine, but usually get fixed.
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Wow, it appears to be a temporary suspension. Where does the slot go?
**DL BOS-CDG MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0

CDG isn't slot-restricted to my knowledge.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA OTH-PDX APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

IIRC, virtually all (if not all) of the non-hub E120 flying OO does as United Express is at-risk; also, as the E120 fleet at OO continues to shrink, these non-hub flights will be dropped as well. At the end of 2014, OO expects to only have 9 E120's remaining (presumably the owned aircraft).

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US DCA

So much new service in competitive markets... NOT. DCA-BHM is $350 each way for the lowest available fare three months in advance and you don't get a free checked bag or even a kiss before they $%!# you.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:31 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Wow, it appears to be a temporary suspension. Where does the slot go?
**DL BOS-CDG MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0

CDG isn't slot-restricted to my knowledge.

Oh, my mistake. My mind was thinking they had suspended LHR-BOS. LOL

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
So much new service in competitive markets... NOT. DCA-BHM is $350 each way for the lowest available fare three months in advance and you don't get a free checked bag or even a kiss before they $%!# you.

Yes, they traded a hub in LGA for service to Ft. Walton Beach? That sounds like a great deal.  
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:31 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

DL APN-PLN APR 0>1.7
DL DTW-PLN APR 1.9>0

This is rather strange, but of course related to the DL EAS situation.

DL intends to drop DTW-APN, but there have been no bidders for APN
DL intends to continue to serve DTW-PLN with a subsidy, that was previously unsubsized.

PLN does extremely well during the summer with all of the tourists, visitors, second/third home owners, Floridians who spend the summer in the north. They increase to 4-5 CRJs/day during peak summer. NW operated ARJs in there for a few summer. In the winter, traffic drops off a cliff. The region is still very popular for winter sports, but it doesn't have the national draw like it does during the summer. This service change appears to be April-only, so perhaps nonstop service will resume in May for the summer.

I wonder if this is a triangular routing or a tag-on. It looks like it could be DTW-APN-PLN-DTW. PLN is the larger market of the two. Up until a few years ago, APN used to share Saab service with CIU, with the routing being DTW-APN-CIU-APN-DTW.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:38 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Yes, they traded a hub in LGA for service to Ft. Walton Beach? That sounds like a great deal.

True, but by all accounts the US hub in LGA was persistently losing money. Not sure how US will do in Ft. Walton, but I guess they figured it was better than losing money at LGA. I also think US is somewhat hoarding slots with the eventual hope of getting the perimeter rule weakened and then transitioning slots from the small markets to the beyond perimeter. That's a long-term US goal.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
DCA-BHM is $350 each way for the lowest available fare three months in advance and you don't get a free checked bag or even a kiss before they $%!# you.

Yeah, I noticed all the fares they loaded for the new DCA markets are very high. I imagine they'll get adjusted downward or these flights will be empty. DCA can get a premium, but not that big of a premium!!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:25 pm

Wonder when AM will restart ATL for the nth time? It was announced last year that ATL-MEX and ATL-MTY would be added in 1Q2012. Wonder if it was just another shot in the dark?
Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:41 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**DL BOS-CDG MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0

That's not a suspension but a delayed start (now pushed to 01MAY).
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 12):
I wonder if this is a triangular routing or a tag-on.

It appears to be a "tag" and not a "round-robin".

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
True, but by all accounts the US hub in LGA was persistently losing money. Not sure how US will do in Ft. Walton, but I guess they figured it was better than losing money at LGA.

Frankly I think they lost a lot more by B6 coming into DCA with these slots than they gained with VPS and such. They should have just surrendered LGA.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
Yeah, I noticed all the fares they loaded for the new DCA markets are very high. I imagine they'll get adjusted downward or these flights will be empty

Yeah for competition, huh?

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 15):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
**DL BOS-CDG MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0

That's not a suspension but a delayed start (now pushed to 01MAY).
Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Oh, my mistake. My mind was thinking they had suspended LHR-BOS. LOL

Yeah, my eyes saw CDG, but thought LHR.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:23 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL LAX-OAK MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4


Just the one flight is more cuts huh?? LAX has had no cuts recently unless your counting the DEN flights that never even started....
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:32 pm

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 5):
Appears they are combining several cities. APN-PLN out of DTW
Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 12):
This is rather strange, but of course related to the DL EAS situation.

DL intends to drop DTW-APN, but there have been no bidders for APN

Courtesy: The Alpena News

Airport Faces Another Challenge

"The air service is going to get changed and Delta will begin tagging and it looks as if we'll be hooked up with Pellston," McRoberts said. "They have made a request to the DOT for a schedule change. It is set to begin on March 25 and run to May 1, then operations will continue as it is now until Nov. 4 and then tagging will start again.The bottom line is we aren't going to be getting the same service we are now."

http://thealpenanews.com/page/conten...es-another-challenge.html?nav=5004
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting dlflynhayn (Reply 17):
Just the one flight is more cuts huh?? LAX has had no cuts recently unless your counting the DEN flights that never even started....

I don't see how you wouldn't count that. LOL. It's actually more of an indicator of poor performance when it is cut before it even starts.

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 18):
The bottom line is we aren't going to be getting the same service we are now.

The community should look at ways to boost tourism off-season.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:08 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO GUM-SPN SEP 0>6

What's the story behind that one? Six new daily flights from Guam to Saipan?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
don't see how you wouldn't count that. LOL. It's actually more of an indicator of poor performance when it is cut before it even starts


Id rather them cut it then try it and lose money!! LAX ramp is currently hiring so I'm pretty sure our station is gonna be steady for the future whether you like it or not...
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:13 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
The community should look at ways to boost tourism off-season.

Tourism isn't going to solve APN's problems. APN is on the wrong side of the state. The Lake Michigan shoreline is Michigan's gold coast. The tourism-generated travel mostly goes to that side of the state.

APN is a hold-over from days gone by and DL can't really drop it now because of EAS until they get permission to drop it. They are essentially trying to reduce cost.

PLN is a much more viable market than APN. However northern Michigan is seasonal. The hunting, skiing, snowmobiling crowd that comes up north in the winter doesn't fly up, they're driving up from the southern part of the state, Ohio, and Indiana.

I'm trying to figure out is the tag DTW-PLN-APN-PLN-DTW or is it DTW-APN-PLN-APN-DTW?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:13 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-MEX JUL 0.1>0.3


WOW!

With 15% cuts so far and maybe even more to be, it's good to see some increase in DEN international service by UA, even though it's at most merely a couple of flights a week. I guess that there's enough with O&D alone on this route here, and it is in the off-season of AM's n/s service here, so UA has this to itself.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:58 pm

Quoting dlflynhayn (Reply 21):
Id rather them cut it then try it and lose money!!

No doubt, but the question was what else had they cut. They need planes for LGA. LAX became a source. That is an interesting development. I was expecting CVG or MEM to lose more. That has not happened.

Quoting dlflynhayn (Reply 21):
whether you like it or not...

When did I say anything about whether I like it or not? As I've said many times, I give DL enormous credit for trying new things even if a lot fail. I don't like when they do anti-competitive retaliation stuff and I thought LAX-DEN was low yield for an RJ from the beginning, but if they tried it with a profit motive and not a retaliatory motive then good for them for taking a shot. They basically traded LAX-DEN or LGA-DEN. The latter has more potential, although both are overserved. DL just has more strength in NYC than they have in LAX and the market isn't as trashed. I don't expect they will do well in LGA-DEN either, but they may be thinking F9 won't be around forever and LGA makes more sense than LAX does in a post-F9 world.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22):
I'm trying to figure out is the tag DTW-PLN-APN-PLN-DTW or is it DTW-APN-PLN-APN-DTW?

PLN-DTW-PLN is ending, so the latter is correct, I think.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:22 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22):
I'm trying to figure out is the tag DTW-PLN-APN-PLN-DTW or is it DTW-APN-PLN-APN-DTW?
Quoting enilria (Reply 24):
PLN-DTW-PLN is ending, so the latter is correct, I think.

In which case APN needs to stop whining as they still have the direct flight to DTW...PLN is the loser here....
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:23 pm

1. Hasn't AA flow ORD-JAC during the summer in past years? Will AA be flying the route this summer?

2. Two or three years ago, AA flew ORD-ANC during the summer. Is this another possibility, or will AA simply let AS handle ANC traffic via ORD?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:30 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA DFW-ANC MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

What is noteworthy about this? AA has been flying a 757 DFW-ANC seasonally as far as I can remember. It's been their only ANC route for quite awhile (after trying ORD-ANC seasonally; discontinuing the ex-TWA STL-ANC; and discontinuing the ex-QQ SEA-ANC).
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:41 pm

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 25):
In which case APN needs to stop whining as they still have the direct flight to DTW...PLN is the loser here....

True, it's possible their whining resulted in the change, but they don't know it as quickly as we do.  
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 27):
What is noteworthy about this? AA has been flying a 757 DFW-ANC seasonally as far as I can remember.

It wasn't loaded for sale until now and is only 4 months away so I'd say there was some possibility it wasn't going to be flown this year until this week's load. I'd argue that by loading it so late they have already missed a good portion of the cruise business which books far in advance.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA DFW-ANC MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*AA DFW-EGE JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*AA DFW-JAC JUL 0>1.1 AUG 0>1.1 SEP 0>1.0

Wow, AA really stepping it up with new routes.
Work Hard, Fly Right.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting Boeing773ER (Reply 29):
Wow, AA really stepping it up with new routes.

We were just discussing that. None are "new" in that they were all seasonal last year as well. They just went on sale this week, however. Judging from the late announcement I'd argue that ANC was being debated as to whether it would return. JAC/EGE are put on sale about this time every year.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:30 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO SFO-GEG FEB 0>1.0

Not sure what this is except maybe the CO code being added to one of the existing UAEx nonstops?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:33 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 24):
PLN-DTW-PLN is ending, so the latter is correct, I think.

Yep, both flights are DTW-APN-PLN-APN-DTW. The afternoon flight is a turn, the evening flight RON's in PLN. I wonder how much of an impact this will have on PLN, the more viable of the 2 airports.

As usual, by mid-June DTW-PLN is back to 4 daily CRJs though.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:45 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Yes, they traded a hub in LGA for service to Ft. Walton Beach? That sounds like a great deal.

Lol! I understand your being totally baffled, but Ft. Walton is a MAJOR military area with Eglin AFB (which is, by the way, VPS...one in the same), Hurlburt Field (home of AFSOC -- Air Force Special Ops Command), one of three phases of US Army Ranger School (Camp Rudder, part of Eglin), as well as the recent addition of 7th Special Forces Group "Green Berets" (Camp Rudder/Eglin).

Service to an airport within mere sightline of the Pentagon? What an asinine idea!! Having that said, I'm not insinuating the route will work out and you may very well be right (let me guess, your first reaction was WTF?!). All I'm saying is that for once in many, many years, someone at US may have actually put two and two together and devised with a good idea (maybe). However, if this route depends solely on military pax -- CRJ2 or not -- it probably can't survive. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out though!

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
Not sure how US will do in Ft. Walton

Agreed, although given what I said above, at least there's a passenger base from the prevalent military presence flying out of an airport which is actually an Air Force base to begin with. Having as direct as possible door-to-door connection from AFSOC and a noteworthy component of USASOC with the Pentagon and DC in roughly two hours isn't a half bad idea. Eglin to the Pentagon is damn near as door-to-door as two entities can be unless you've got a helicopter.

Again, as mentioned above, unless some locals and tourists can help fill out the 50 seaters, this seemingly logical idea will be dead on arrival. Although, 10 years ago, who knew PNS could support IAD or ORD?? I flew IAD-PNS on Wednesday and it was 100% full. Ft. Walton is no Pensacola, but I'm gonna be more optimistic about this route than most of you. There, I said it, now it's bound to fail. D'oh!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:08 am

Delta is gonna be flying 2x daily 737-800 on LGA-DEN! I really hope this doesn't come at the expense of JFK. Delta is going to become a major player in that market. I have flown DEN-JFK many times and its often not that full and the majority is connecting to international flights from my exeperiences. This is gonna be alot of o&d seats to fill if i were delta they might want to temporarily add some more seats on SLC-DEN to connect some people?

I just scored multiple $79 each way tickets from EWR to DEN for family members a few days ago when prices dipped these additional delta seats are good news for the future. Denver is such an awesome market for constant fare sales they are just so often and low, thanks Delta for adding a few more fare sales in the future to fill these seats!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:38 pm

Quoting n7371f (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO SFO-GEG FEB 0>1.0

Not sure what this is except maybe the CO code being added to one of the existing UAEx nonstops?

They type is a CRJ and UA* shows no corresponding decrease. No idea.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 32):
I wonder how much of an impact this will have on PLN, the more viable of the 2 airports.

Probably bad. You wonder how it ended up like that.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 33):
Lol! I understand your being totally baffled, but Ft. Walton is a MAJOR military area with Eglin AFB

There are plenty of Air Forces bases without non-stop historical service to DCA. For example, Columbus, MS has one. Gulfport/Biloxi has one. Montgomery, AL has one. Looking at the list, there are actually very few that have non-stop service to DCA.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 33):
Having that said, I'm not insinuating the route will work out and you may very well be right

I doubt it will work, but my point was that at best it will be a marginal route and US traded a hub in the nation's largest city for that route and a few similar ones. Cow for magic beans, anyone?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):

There are plenty of Air Forces bases without non-stop historical service to DCA. For example, Columbus, MS has one. Gulfport/Biloxi has one. Montgomery, AL has one. Looking at the list, there are actually very few that have non-stop service to DCA.

True, though Eglin AFB is vastly larger than these other bases...and growing. Based on 2nd quarter data, VPS has 136 daily passengers (68 passengers each way) to the DC Metro region (BWI/DCA/IAD). In theory, if US can capture 40% of this traffic (27 passengers) plus about 15 connecting passengers, they would have an LF of 84%. VPS also has some leisure traffic which places like Montgomery and Columbus do not have.

I think VPS can fill the flight, the challenge will be getting a high enough yield relative to the long nature of the flight on a high CASM CRJ.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 33):
Although, 10 years ago, who knew PNS could support IAD or ORD?? I flew IAD-PNS on Wednesday and it was 100% full. Ft. Walton is no Pensacola, but I'm gonna be more optimistic about this route than most of you.

PNS has struggled to support ORD and it's currently Saturday only. PNS-IAD has faired better, but was still cut from 2x to 1x daily. However, I expect PNS-DCA would perform better as DCA is the preferred airport for much of the military and government travel. My guess is that UA will likely abandon PNS-IAD with US now offering PNS-DCA.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):
Delta is going to become a major player in that market.

I'm sorry...based on what? Number of Flights? You're saying market so I assume you're referring to EWR/JFK/LGA combined.

WN flies 2 Daily DEN-LGA (soon) and 3 daily DEN-EWR, this will be 5 n/s flights from WN
DL will fly 2 daily DEN-LGA and 1 Daily to JFK, and none to EWR. This will be 3 n/s from DL

Already WN has more flights to NYC out of DEN, and yet Delta will be the major player?

Oh wait! We forgot United which serves all LGA/EWR and F9 which serves LGA.

My point is, the multitude of airline choices to NYC, is going to lower the chance of Delta being a major player.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):
thanks Delta for adding a few more fare sales in the future to fill these seats!

No, thanks Southwest and F9 for lowering the fares, and for Delta to simply match.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):
i were delta they might want to temporarily add some more seats on SLC-DEN to connect some people?

Dear god how much more can that market bear? Delta already flies at least 8 daily DEN-SLC, on top of UA, F9 and WN. Not to mention SLC has their own n/s on Delta to NYC, they don't need to back track via DEN. As you said, DEN-NYC will depend on OD and connections onward.

Alex
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
I doubt it will work, but my point was that at best it will be a marginal route and US traded a hub in the nation's largest city for that route and a few similar ones. Cow for magic beans, anyone?

Just because you have something valuable or limited doesn't mean that you were making money off of it.

I thought its well known or at least well rumored that US was loosing money with its LGA operation? It makes sense for both of them to consolidate in one city and really try to gain frequent flyers and more of a presence. The value IMHO of the DCA expansion is that US is able to really become the Regan national airline and grab even more frequent flyers. US is testing the waters im sure and some routes will be changed in time both due to plane types available and performance. I think this was a good deal for both airlines neither one got a better deal they just each have pluses and minuses. Yes delta got more slots but without even mentioning the 66+ million in cash delta paid US, Delta is forced to have a split operation, LGA has two airports not much further from the city center, and there is more competition from other airlines and LCCs for them. For US they are really going to be the DCA airport with these slots I think both airlines got a good deal in the end. US will make something of these slots.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 37):
I'm sorry...based on what? Number of Flights? You're saying market so I assume you're referring to EWR/JFK/LGA combined.

WN flies 2 Daily DEN-LGA (soon) and 3 daily DEN-EWR, this will be 5 n/s flights from WN
DL will fly 2 daily DEN-LGA and 1 Daily to JFK, and none to EWR. This will be 3 n/s from DL

Already WN has more flights to NYC out of DEN, and yet Delta will be the major player?

Oh wait! We forgot United which serves all LGA/EWR and F9 which serves LGA.

My point is, the multitude of airline choices to NYC, is going to lower the chance of Delta being a major player.

LOL i didn't say market leader or largest i said a major player and they will be one of the major players in the market if they can keep 3 737-800 on the route.

FYI i am so familiar with this market its sad so i didn't "forget" anything i can think of airlines you left out but i wont be a know it all like you.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 37):
No, thanks Southwest and F9 for lowering the fares, and for Delta to simply match.

Delta will have to initiate some sales to fill those planes, times with when airlines like WN probably wont need to match and have almost full flights like summer so it wont be all "matching"I have grabbed a ton of delta super last minute cheap fares on JFK-DEN when WN, UA and F9 were all expensive and full and delta was trying to fill its jfk-den so delta is already not just matching. Deltas non-stop is quite often the cheapest last minute on this route. They already they definitely discount/sale last minute on this route when the plane has a ton of seats and this flight seems to be real hit or miss as is. I have grabbed a few business class seats in the upper 200s o/w in the summer which is a fabulous deal last minute when in advance they sell in the thousands o/w delta certain has sales on this route and if they go ahead with three flights they are gonna need to have more and probably expand more in advance. Currently they seem to price this route high in advance to keep seats open for international connections and then fill late with low fares when the flights have alot of empty seats for LGA they will need to have more sales and be further in advance to compete so delta adding seats will certainly have an effect on this market.

[Edited 2012-01-06 07:57:13]
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:00 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 36):
True, though Eglin AFB is vastly larger than these other bases...and growing. Based on 2nd quarter data, VPS has 136 daily passengers (68 passengers each way) to the DC Metro region (BWI/DCA/IAD). In theory, if US can capture 40% of this traffic (27 passengers) plus about 15 connecting passengers, they would have an LF of 84%. VPS also has some leisure traffic which places like Montgomery and Columbus do not have.

At best it will be a breakeven route. I think we all know that. Gov't negotiated fares are not even particularly high yield and the rest of the market is pure leisure. Hasn't been PNS (Navy) to DCA been tried before? It's at least been proposed a few times.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 38):
Just because you have something valuable or limited doesn't mean that you were making money off of it.

As I stated above, I think they should have just surrendered it because the damage B6 is going to do to DCA-BOS and other routes far outweighs the minimal profits of markets like VPS.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:13 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 38):

LOL i didn't say market leader or largest i said a major player and they will be one of the major players in the market if they can keep 3 737-800 on the route.

I understand that, I still don't think they will be a major player in terms of flights when you have other airlines providing more non stop service.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 38):

FYI i am so familiar with this market its sad so i didn't "forget" anything i can think of airlines you left out but i wont be a know it all like you.

Where did I claim to be a know-it-all? Now you're making it personal. Please, correct me if YOU "know it all" about the route.

I left out B6 by the way because it was only one flight a day to JFK (even less of a "player"), otherwise I don't think of anyone else I left out. I put "multitude" to understand I know there are more airline choices beyond what I stated as examples.

All we have is..

DL-LGA/JFK
WN/FL-EWR/LGA
B6-JFK
F9-LGA
UA/CO-EWR/LGA

Who did I leave out?

Alex
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FlyPNS1
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:26 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
Hasn't been PNS (Navy) to DCA been tried before? It's at least been proposed a few times.

It's been proposed by US, but never actually flown. US tried to get it as part of the Air21 slots, but they never won.

As I stated above, I think they should have just surrendered it because the damage B6 is going to do to DCA-BOS and other routes far outweighs the minimal profits of markets like VPS.

B6 was already flying DCA-BOS without the slot swap, so the damage is done. Given the limited number of slots B6 is getting most of the damage they will do will be on leisure routes, so I doubt US cares much.

[Edited 2012-01-06 08:29:13]
 
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atcsundevil
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
There are plenty of Air Forces bases without non-stop historical service to DCA. For example, Columbus, MS has one. Gulfport/Biloxi has one. Montgomery, AL has one. Looking at the list, there are actually very few that have non-stop service to DCA.

I am aware of this, although plenty of bases don't have the AFSOC headquarters. Eglin/Hurlburt are unique because of their sheer size as well as their growing importance as the DoD puts more emphasis on use of Special Ops. VPS is also 20 minutes from Destin and 30 from Navarre; the former is a BIG tourist draw. The bases which you've mentioned lack the signicance of Eglin/Hurlburt and Camp Rudder and aren't directly adjacent to a well-known tourist destination.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 36):
True, though Eglin AFB is vastly larger than these other bases...and growing. Based on 2nd quarter data, VPS has 136 daily passengers (68 passengers each way) to the DC Metro region (BWI/DCA/IAD). In theory, if US can capture 40% of this traffic (27 passengers) plus about 15 connecting passengers, they would have an LF of 84%. VPS also has some leisure traffic which places like Montgomery and Columbus do not have.

Exactly. Hurlburt has probably grown six fold in the past 10-15 years and is still continuing to grow exponentially, and with Eglin getting the F-35, it's not going away either.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 36):
PNS has struggled to support ORD and it's currently Saturday only. PNS-IAD has faired better, but was still cut from 2x to 1x daily. However, I expect PNS-DCA would perform better as DCA is the preferred airport for much of the military and government travel. My guess is that UA will likely abandon PNS-IAD with US now offering PNS-DCA.

I wasn't sure how they were faring aside from my packed flight, all I know is that 10 years ago, flights to ATL and CLT was just about as good as it got. I grew up in the DC area so maybe my dumbfoundedness of having a direct WAS-PNS flight isn't as significant to others.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
At best it will be a breakeven route. I think we all know that. Gov't negotiated fares are not even particularly high yield and the rest of the market is pure leisure. Hasn't been PNS (Navy) to DCA been tried before? It's at least been proposed a few times.

Well don't include me in the "I think we all know that". I'm skeptical but far less so than most. The winter months will have fairly dismal load factors, but it'll pick up when it's warmer. I think US is counting on gov't traffic to sustain that, and I think it may be enough. Pensacola has a NAS but doesn't have nearly the number of sailors stationed there as does Eglin/Hurlburt/Rudder has airmen and soldiers, nor the strategic importance. It is sustaining IAD but most likely due to leisure traffic -- FlyPNS, correct me if I'm wrong on that.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:28 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
I doubt it will work, but my point was that at best it will be a marginal route and US traded a hub in the nation's largest city for that route and a few similar ones. Cow for magic beans, anyone?

To be fair, US wasn't exactly running high-volume routes to major markets from LGA either. Lots of prop action to marginal Northeast markets.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:31 pm

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 42):
I grew up in the DC area so maybe my dumbfoundedness of having a direct WAS-PNS flight isn't as significant to others.

It was certainly dumbfounding to me the first time I flew IAD-PNS. It was very weird to be in PNS so quickly and not having to go through ATL or CLT.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 42):
It is sustaining IAD but most likely due to leisure traffic -- FlyPNS, correct me if I'm wrong on that.

I think PNS-IAD is sustained more by the connections at IAD than anything else. UA has managed to pick up about a 25% marketshare in a lot of northeast markets from PNS (SYR, ALB, PWM, BDL, etc). That's not a lot of traffic individually (only a few people per market), but when you add up all the markets it becomes easy to fill 1 or 2 CRJ's everyday. Of course, yields aren't great on some of these connections.

From the data I've seen UA hasn't captured much of the PNS-WAS local traffic. Most of that still takes DL/US/FL.

[Edited 2012-01-06 10:36:39]
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:45 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 41):
B6 was already flying DCA-BOS without the slot swap, so the damage is done.

So you really believe that additional capacity in a market has no incremental effect? LOL. Clearly, that is not the case. The more seats in a market the worse it does. Simple Economics 101 supply/demand/price curves. Traditionally, DCA-BOS is the best route in the entire network, so my guess is that 3 to 5 additional flights in that market will hurt a lot. If B6 paid out the wazoo to fly from DCA to Florida then they are dumb. Sorry, I hope they are not that dumb.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 42):
The bases which you've mentioned lack the signicance

Show me staffing levels by base and I'll concede, but absent that "significance" is a matter of opinion I think.  
Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 42):
I think US is counting on gov't traffic to sustain that, and I think it may be enough.

Again, gov't fares are not particularly high yield. So, they better find some high yield business travelers. RJs require really high fares to survive.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
To be fair, US wasn't exactly running high-volume routes to major markets from LGA either. Lots of prop action to marginal Northeast markets.

Oh, see above. I was saying they would have been better off giving LGA back to DOT and not gaining a bigger B6 in DCA.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 44):
From the data I've seen UA hasn't captured much of the PNS-WAS local traffic. Most of that still takes DL/US/FL.

That's particularly interesting because, I thought, that the carrier with the only non-stop service automatically gets the GSA bid win. It is true, however, that govt employees can fly on other airlines that much those prices. Nevertheless, it shows that network FFP loyalty trumps service in at least one case.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:53 pm

CO SFO-GEG FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-ONT FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-PSP FEB 0>1.0
CO SFO-RNO FEB 0>1.0

Am I missing something or is CO adding mainline flying alongside SkyWest service here?
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 7:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
So you really believe that additional capacity in a market has no incremental effect? LOL.

B6 already has 7 daily flights in the market and yields are already in the toilet.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
The more seats in a market the worse it does. Simple Economics 101 supply/demand/price curves

Except that you ignore DL is leaving the market, so even if B6 adds 300-400 seats, DL is pulling just as many out. On most weekdays, DL currently has 477 seats each way!

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
bigger B6 in DCA.

Even with the slot swap, B6's presence at DCA will still be pretty tiny....a whopping 17 flights a day. Not enough to be a significant player in most business markets....except BOS and maybe Florida.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
If B6 paid out the wazoo to fly from DCA to Florida then they are dumb. Sorry, I hope they are not that dumb.

They don't have enough slots to do much else. Sure, they can add a few more flights to BOS, but that doesn't help much.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Nevertheless, it shows that network FFP loyalty trumps service in at least one case.

It's not really FF loyalty alone. DL, FL and US (via their hubs in ATL and CLT) offer more frequency than UA does. DL flies PNS-ATL 7-8x daily and ATL-DCA 15-16x daily! Plus, DL, FL and US offer access to DCA and BWI....UA's nonstop is to IAD. While the nonstop is faster, you lose much of that time if you then have to drive/taxi to downtown DC/Pentagon.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:08 pm

Quoting as739x (Reply 46):
Am I missing something or is CO adding mainline flying alongside SkyWest service here?

See below

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
Quoting n7371f (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO SFO-GEG FEB 0>1.0

Not sure what this is except maybe the CO code being added to one of the existing UAEx nonstops?

They type is a CRJ and UA* shows no corresponding decrease. No idea.
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 47):
Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
So you really believe that additional capacity in a market has no incremental effect? LOL.

B6 already has 7 daily flights in the market and yields are already in the toilet.
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 47):
Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
The more seats in a market the worse it does. Simple Economics 101 supply/demand/price curves

Except that you ignore DL is leaving the market, so even if B6 adds 300-400 seats, DL is pulling just as many out. On most weekdays, DL currently has 477 seats each way!

Well, you make a good point about Delta leaving, BUT it is more or less disconnected. If DL dropped that and B6 did not add flights then the market would become more profitable for both airlines on a margin basis. B6 has to decide whether having more flights will decrease their margin, but increase overall net profit on the route. I suppose you could argue that if US had not done the slot deal that DL would have never left DCA-BOS and that is possible.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 47):
Even with the slot swap, B6's presence at DCA will still be pretty tiny....a whopping 17 flights a day. Not enough to be a significant player in most business markets....except BOS and maybe Florida.

17 flights can do a lot of damage in a market as constrained and monopolistic as DCA. If poor AirTran still existed they could have done a lot more with those slots that would have hurt US much more.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 47):
Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
If B6 paid out the wazoo to fly from DCA to Florida then they are dumb. Sorry, I hope they are not that dumb.

They don't have enough slots to do much else. Sure, they can add a few more flights to BOS, but that doesn't help much.

Then you only make my point that you don't pay record prices for slots to waste them on Florida which never makes any substantial money unless it is from a hub which DCA is not for B6. BTW, using those slots to Florida in the Summer will be awful.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 47):
Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Nevertheless, it shows that network FFP loyalty trumps service in at least one case.

It's not really FF loyalty alone. DL, FL and US (via their hubs in ATL and CLT) offer more frequency than UA does. DL flies PNS-ATL 7-8x daily and ATL-DCA 15-16x daily! Plus, DL, FL and US offer access to DCA and BWI....UA's nonstop is to IAD. While the nonstop is faster, you lose much of that time if you then have to drive/taxi to downtown DC/Pentagon.

Then you'd argue that DL will get a substantial piece of the VPS traffic (switching back to the original point) just from connects and their larger FFP share of the Panhandle region?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/6/2012: AM/CO/DL/UA/US

Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
17 flights can do a lot of damage in a market as constrained and monopolistic as DCA.

Yes and no. DCA is a lot of business traffic. To appeal to business travelers, you need frequency to any major market. With only 17 flights, they can't offer frequency to that many markets.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
Then you only make my point that you don't pay record prices for slots to waste them on Florida which never makes any substantial money unless it is from a hub which DCA is not for B6. BTW, using those slots to Florida in the Summer will be awful.

I think B6 did overpay and wanted the slots at DCA more out of ego than economic reality. Other than BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO, I can't really figure what they are going to do with their limited portfolio.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
Then you'd argue that DL will get a substantial piece of the VPS traffic (switching back to the original point) just from connects and their larger FFP share of the Panhandle region?

They will. But as I said, US really only needs about 30-40% of the market to make VPS-DCA work. DL will still probably capture 50%. Those carriers are really the only players in that market.