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1337Delta764
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Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:37 am

For the replacement of the older 757s and A320s, Delta has selected the 737-900ER as their replacement. Next on Delta's replacement radar is the MD-88 fleet, and it seems that the 737 MAX is the most likely candidate.

However, what is less obvious is which variants will DL order. In terms of size, the most direct replacement would be the 737-8 MAX, and DL has a history of replacing their older aircraft with newer ones of similar size (such as the 738s replacing 722s and 764ERs replacing L-1011s). However, DL could also split between the 737-7 MAX and 737-9 MAX (or even all three variants), thus giving DL more flexibility on certain routes.

If DL does order the 737 MAX (which is very likely) to replace the MD-88s, what variants would be the most likely?
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roseflyer
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:41 am

I'd expect if they make a 737-MAX order it will be the -8 and -9. Delta only ordered the 73G so that they could have an airplane with good short field performance for airports like SNA and TGU.
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delimit
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:46 am

Why does it seem like the MAX is the most likely candidate?
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:48 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 2):
Why does it seem like the MAX is the most likely candidate?

Boeing cannot afford to lose DL as a customer as what happened with AA ordering Airbus. Boeing will not stop to give one of their most loyal longtime customers a sweet deal that Airbus cannot match. They beat Airbus with the 739ER order (when many A.netters were expecting DL to choose the A321), and Boeing will probably do it again for a future 737 MAX order.

[Edited 2012-01-08 16:50:24]
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delimit
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:53 am

How is DL different from AA in this regard?
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 4):
How is DL different from AA in this regard?

Well, the AA Airbus order was a major loss for Boeing, and Boeing will do everything it can to avoid losing DL to Airbus. They did it once with the 739ER order, and they will do it again for a future 737 MAX order.
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delimit
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:05 am

But you've got nothing remotely substantive to base that on?
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:10 am

I don't think it simply boils down to which manufacturer gives the sweetest deal. In AA's case, they chose the A321 and A319 from Airbus, so it looks like choosing aircraft for specific mission profiles was one of the reasons that AA went with Airbus to fulfill part of their narrow-body fleet renewal plan. I think that a more realistic scenario for a new narrow-body aircraft order from DL would be choosing the right aircraft for the job, not just looking for the sweetest deal.
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:12 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 6):
But you've got nothing remotely substantive to base that on?

I'm basing it off common sense. I remember when everyone was expecting DL to order the A321, and look where that went.

Could we please get back to the subject of talking about which variants DL will order, rather than turning this into a Boeing vs. Airbus thread.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:44 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
Could we please get back to the subject of talking about which variants DL will order, rather than turning this into a Boeing vs. Airbus thread.

We could but that's very small-sighted. The fact is, DL could very well order a combination of A32XNEOs and 737s. In the airline industry recent history is just that - history.

Despite being a major Boeing fan, I would be doing my company a dis-service if I didn't look at the Airbus offering if I was CEO.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:58 am

Quoting Eightball (Reply 7):
I don't think it simply boils down to which manufacturer gives the sweetest deal. In AA's case, they chose the A321 and A319 from Airbus, so it looks like choosing aircraft for specific mission profiles was one of the reasons that AA went with Airbus to fulfill part of their narrow-body fleet renewal plan. I think that a more realistic scenario for a new narrow-body aircraft order from DL would be choosing the right aircraft for the job, not just looking for the sweetest deal.

I thought AA's main reason for ordering from Airbus (and Boeing at the same time) was that neither manufacturer alone could supply the number of planes they needed quickly enough.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:06 am

Rumor has it that 717s are coming to replace the 88s
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:10 am

Quoting airbuske (Reply 11):
Rumor has it that 717s are coming to replace the 88s

I wouldn't be surprised if DL gets some 717s, however, I don't expect they will replace the MD-88s, since the 717 is a significantly smaller aircraft.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:11 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
I'm basing it off common sense.

...While totally ignoring the common sense that Boeing wasn't particularly interested in losing AA either?

You speak as though Boeing were sleeping when AA made their order, but for the Delta order, they're more attentive?
Hardly. Both Boeing AND Airbus won the AA order- and AA comes out ahead, as they've eliminated the sole-supplier risk.

I fully expect Delta and United to make similar deals, given time.

As far as variants, I suspect either the 320NEO or MAX8 to rule the day at Delta.
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:46 am

Something tells me this is an order for a few more neo's. Airbus is going to give DL a pretty good deal to try to get a new American carrier. Airbus seems to be snatching quite a few Boeing carriers with the neo!
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:53 am

Quoting homsar (Reply 10):
I thought AA's main reason for ordering from Airbus (and Boeing at the same time) was that neither manufacturer alone could supply the number of planes they needed quickly enough.

Indeed; what I meant is that the ability to meet specific mission profiles must have been one of the reasons that AA put into consideration when choosing Airbus to fulfill part of their order.

[Edited 2012-01-08 18:59:37]
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delimit
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:55 am

717s don't make sense in the way MD-90s do. The engine was 717 only whereas the MD-90s are IAE if I recall. They should be significantly cheaper to maintain.
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:56 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 2):
Boeing will not stop to give one of their most loyal longtime customers a sweet deal that Airbus cannot match.

Neither will Airbus. Delta is now one of their most loyal longtime customers as well. And further, much of the DL management is comprised of former NW management who made the Airbus orders.
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:03 am

I totally hate that the forum's flaky quote attribution has stuck my name on the above. : /
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:26 am

Quoting catiii (Reply 17):
Neither will Airbus. Delta is now one of their most loyal longtime customers as well. And further, much of the DL management is comprised of former NW management who made the Airbus orders.

All of the Airbus fans used this as a reason that DL will order A321s. Inheriting a fleet of Airbus aircraft and a former NW CEO being the CEO of DL means absolutely nothing about future orders.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:28 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):

Could we please get back to the subject of talking about which variants DL will order, rather than turning this into a Boeing vs. Airbus thread.

That's assuming Delta orders Boeing 737Max...

Hard to make that discussion when we don't know, not even you included knows who and what Delta will in itself order.

Quoting airbuske (Reply 11):
Rumor has it that 717s are coming to replace the 88s

That's been brought up, but not for a long time coming if true. WN is holding on to the 717's for quite some years.

If Delta wants to wait that long, that's perfectly fine! I find it hard to believe it'd be an MD88 replacement as mentioned above, it is much smaller then the MD88 capacity.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 5):

Well, the AA Airbus order was a major loss for Boeing

Where were you when AA also ordered 200+ airframes for the Boeing 737? You make it seem like Boeing got no orders from American when they in fact did. Almost 50% of the order. That's not bad, not a win of course, but not a loss in any significant way.

I would also lean with the 737-8 if Delta does order the MAX, it has the best CASM of the 3 737M Series which is a big advantage, but with Delta already ordering the 900ER, who knows.

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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:41 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 19):
All of the Airbus fans used this as a reason that DL will order A321s. Inheriting a fleet of Airbus aircraft and a former NW CEO being the CEO of DL means absolutely nothing about future orders.

I don't recall that argument being made anywhere. In fact, the arguments I recall being made were that Anderson was saying "we're not buying shiny new objects," that at the end of the day the goal is to improve P&L and if an existing airframe can meet those goals at the fraction of the cost (i.e. existing technology at a cheaper cost vs. newer unproven technology) that diminishes the attractiveness of a re-engined aircraft such as the NEO or the 737MAX. Anderson has also reiterated time and again that a key component of their strategy is "making prudent investments for the future while maintaining our financial and capacity discipline." So this acknowledges that fuel efficiency is very important, but not if the initial cost of buying that fuel efficiency is so high. As FlightGlobal has repeatedly (and I think correctly) pointed out, Delta puts much more weight on ownership cost in aircraft purchases than on promised efficiency improvements.

The fact that much of DL's current management is comprised of former NW management certainly does matter, because it means they aren't wedded to the traditional DL way of thinking (which prior to Grinstein was to buy whatever new Boeing was coming off the line without giving it a second thought). So for you state, so absolutely and unequivocally, that the new 737 variant is "the most likely candidate" is an uneducated short sighted view, especially when one tracks the comments of the DL leadership on this issue to date.

Quoting delimit (Reply 18):
I totally hate that the forum's flaky quote attribution has stuck my name on the above. : /

I know. Don't know why that happens so much.
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 8:19 am

Quoting airbuske (Reply 11):
Rumor has it that 717s are coming to replace the 88s



DL is not going to be taking on 717s in 2018 when a more viable replacement will already be on the market. Delta's general trend is to move capacity up will maintaining the same or cheaper operating cost. Taking on the 717 will be the exact opposite of what they've been doing (adding seats to the 88s; taking on the 90s that has the exact same seating capacity as the 738, etc.).

And BTW, the 2018 number comes from what's been thrown around for when most of the 88s will start to exit the fleet.

Now, this is just my personal and biased feeling, but I think they will go Boeing. That's just me and has nothing to do with the company...

Quoting Eightball (Reply 7):



Others will tell you, but DL is all about the bottom line (now and in the past). If they can get 737s at a bargain compared to the competition and the ownership cost over the life of the frame will be much cheaper than option B, while maintaining competitive costs (fuel consumption, etc) they'll go with the former. Just look at the 739ER order. This is also evident in their comitment to the MD-90. They've weighed ownership much higher than a shiney new jet. The 90s carry the exact same amount of people as the 738 in the same configuration (16FC 144YC). The range is obviously not there but it does most of what DL needs. Generally up to 1500 miles which is what yoee out of MSP to the likes of GEG and SEA.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:49 pm

While DL's order 739ER's certainly means Boeing has a good chance of a follow-on order for the 737MAX, I believe both Airbus and Bombardier are not to be dismissed either. It shouldn't be forgotten that the next narrowbody order is years away before happening anyway, and by that time the Cseries and P&W's GTF may very well be in active service. And if both are working reliably, and the GTF is beating specs (according to Lightsaber, P&W could have as much as 4% better fuel consumption as promised), I'm inclined to think DL will prefer to order Airbus or Bombardier planes with GTF rather than a still unproven LEAP-X engine...
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:36 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):
Quoting delimit (Reply 18):
I totally hate that the forum's flaky quote attribution has stuck my name on the above. : /

I know. Don't know why that happens so much.

OT, but addressing this oft-complained-about issue. It happens when someone highlights text from one message, but clicks "Quote Selected Text" from another message. It adds the name and reply number of the message where the button was clicked, not where the text was highlighted.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 19):
All of the Airbus fans used this as a reason that DL will order A321s.

It seems to me that throwing out terms like "Airbus fans" (or "Boeing fans," but I don't think that appears in this thread) is what draws people into an A vs B war, which, I thought, you were trying to avoid.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
Could we please get back to the subject of talking about which variants DL will order, rather than turning this into a Boeing vs. Airbus thread
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
Could we please get back to the subject of talking about which variants DL will order, rather than turning this into a Boeing vs. Airbus thread.

I think you should state that as "might" instead of "will". I would like to see a Boeing order too but I also understand DL has to do what is best for DL.

Quoting catiii (Reply 21):
if an existing airframe can meet those goals at the fraction of the cost (i.e. existing technology at a cheaper cost vs. newer unproven technology) that diminishes the attractiveness of a re-engined aircraft such as the NEO or the 737MAX.


I think this is the key. Why spend money if the ROI is not enough to justify the shinny new metal?

One thought - look at BBD or EMB for some additional short term replacements on the smaller end, use the current fleet in the middle with phase outs and the latest 739ER order on the top end. With the BBD / EMB fleet minimizing the need for the smaller routes and the 739ER doing the same for the larger routes, that frees aircraft to take on the middle (ie A320 / 738). This will allow planes to be retired as needed without losing capacity. Then wait for the true Y1 and NSR in the mid 2020s.

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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:33 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 3):
Boeing cannot afford to lose DL as a customer as what happened with AA ordering Airbus. Boeing will not stop to give one of their most loyal longtime customers a sweet deal that Airbus cannot match. They beat Airbus with the 739ER order (when many A.netters were expecting DL to choose the A321), and Boeing will probably do it again for a future 737 MAX order.

I think you might have this backwards. Because the 739ER order went to Boeing, it does appear Boeing may have the upper hand for the next narrowbody order. With that in mind, Airbus may offer an amazing deal to prevent Delta from going all Boeing. More is at stake in this for A than for B.

If I had it my way Delta’s next narrowbody order would be a split between 738 and the C-series. But my money is on a mix of 319/320. Airbus will bend over backward to keep Delta a mixed-fleet airline.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:38 pm

Quoting rangercarp (Reply 26):
I think you might have this backwards. Because the 739ER order went to Boeing, it does appear Boeing may have the upper hand for the next narrowbody order. With that in mind, Airbus may offer an amazing deal to prevent Delta from going all Boeing. More is at stake in this for A than for B.

Boeing will never stop to lose DL. If Airbus provides DL a sweet deal, Boeing will counter it with an even sweeter deal that Airbus will be unable to match. Remember, Boeing went out of their way to give DL a proper L-1011 replacement, the 764ER. DL is one of Boeing's most valuable customers, and losing them to Airbus would be a big loss that Boeing cannot afford.

[Edited 2012-01-09 11:39:09]
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 8:20 pm

1337Delta764,

You need to realize that there is nothing to say DL wont buy Airbus. Despite what you, others or I even may want (which is a Boeing order) at the end of the day both Airbus and Boeing will fight like hell to win Delta's business. The only guarantee in the airline industry is there are no guarantees.

Boeing creating the 764 has nothing to do with tis diacussion or this order. The aircraft in the race will be judged on a basis that includes capability, cost and timings - with both families being pretty even across most measures.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:29 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 27):
Remember, Boeing went out of their way to give DL a proper L-1011 replacement, the 764ER. DL is one of Boeing's most valuable customers, and losing them to Airbus would be a big loss that Boeing cannot afford.

Also remember that was under a totally different regime, that bought Boeing jets blindly based on loyalty. You continue to refuse to take into account the simple statements by DL management that P&L and ownership costs, not shiny new objects, is what will drive their decisions.
 
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 27):
Boeing will never stop to lose DL. If Airbus provides DL a sweet deal, Boeing will counter it with an even sweeter deal that Airbus will be unable to match. Remember, Boeing went out of their way to give DL a proper L-1011 replacement, the 764ER. DL is one of Boeing's most valuable customers, and losing them to Airbus would be a big loss that Boeing cannot afford.

I don't think that is true. I don't think it can be said with certainty if the MAX would be ordered over the NEO. Many on this thread are posting their personal opinions, which is about as much as we can get with few facts. What is known is that Delta chose the 739ER over the A321. Why, we don't know, but we can ascertain that Delta preferred the package around the 737NG over the A320. I don't think it is the case of super sweet deals or allegiance to one manufacturer.

The same discounts and desire to pull a large customer to DL was likely heavily involved in that decision when the A321 and 739ER were compared. The total package for the 737 won against the A320, so I think it is reasonable to believe that DL would be more likely to go for the 737-MAX than A320NEO based on preference to order the 739ER over A321. However that does not rule out the A320NEO family. The upgrades are different planes and there are plenty of opportunities for another full sales campaign and analysis which could go either way. All the commonality benefits still apply because there is the large A320 family at DL. Airbus might have to get a bit more aggressive with pricing than they want to get a DL NEO order since they have two disadvantages (both of which can be overcome). One is that DL already has indicated a preference for the current generation 737 over A320. The second is that since they have more A320 NEO commitments than Boeing has for the MAX and, Airbus likely would be wanting to charge higher prices for production slots this decade.

It might be an objective to maintain market share by both Airbus and Boeing, but neither are going to get into a bidding war of offering sweeter deals. With the popularity already established on the 737-MAX and A320 NEO, I doubt any airline is getting a sweet deal at all. Sales price and list price are different things, but I doubt any airline is going to get an incredible deal. In fact, in order to get earlier production slots, I'd expect airlines likely would be paying heafty premiums over the baseline sales price.

I might be alone in speculating this, but I think a major reason for AA splitting their order is that they knew they needed airplanes quickly since they operate one of the oldest fleets. Either Boeing or Airbus could have provided the whole deal, but the premiums that they'd charge for expedited slots would have been very high. AA may have felt it cheaper to get better prices by splitting their order instead of having to pay more to take such a large percentage of deliveries from a single manufacturer.

In the end, I don't think any airlines are getting sweet deals on 737-MAX or A320NEO (sweet deal example would be FedEx on the 767). Boeing and Airbus are commanding high margins with those models. I do think that if it went to the MAX it would more likely be the -8 or -9. I'm not sure what the NEO would look like if it would be 319, 320 & 321. They operate the 319 in large numbers unlike the 73G. The 321 is an option now and likely isn't in the fleet since it wasn't an option when NW committed to the 320.

[Edited 2012-01-09 14:14:09]
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:53 pm

Quoting catiii (Reply 29):
Also remember that was under a totally different regime, that bought Boeing jets blindly based on loyalty. You continue to refuse to take into account the simple statements by DL management that P&L and ownership costs, not shiny new objects, is what will drive their decisions.

Blindly? If I could buy a 737-800 for $10 or an A320 for $15, while both are equally competative and my ownership cost over the life of the mortgage would be less with the 738, im going with the 738. That's essentiall what DL's been doing with Bowing for the past 15 years. That fact still held with the recent 739ER order. Furthermore, they are getting an a/c that seats more, weighs less, and has superior range capabilities vs. payload.

We shall see what they announce later in the year but like I already posted, I have my own opinions.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:58 pm

Boeing has comittements for over 1000 737MAX, I would bet Delta is included.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:03 am

Quoting homsar (Reply 10):
I thought AA's main reason for ordering from Airbus (and Boeing at the same time) was that neither manufacturer alone could supply the number of planes they needed quickly enough.

That may have been a benefit, but I don't think that was the reason. Clearly, the news at the time indicated that Boeing was caught sleeping with their indecision on whether to go with an all-new design or a re-design.

"Airbus came close to winning the entire order. Before anyone at Boeing knew about it, last month the airline signed an initial memorandum of understanding to buy A320neos, which will come with new fuel-efficient engines.

To head off that loss, within the last 10 days Boeing gave American a new proposal that offers the 737 jet equipped with similar engines, the sources said.
"

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...hnology/2015662118_american20.html
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting aeropiggot (Reply 32):

Historically, DL does not make UFO orders. If they ordered the MAX they would be listed and you would know about it.
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RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):
. It shouldn't be forgotten that the next narrowbody order is years away before happening anyway, and by that time the Cseries and P&W's GTF may very well be in active service. And if both are working reliably, and the GTF is beating specs (according to Lightsaber, P&W could have as much as 4% better fuel consumption as promised), I'm inclined to think DL will prefer to order Airbus or Bombardier planes with GTF rather than a still unproven LEAP-X engine...

By then CFMI will have some real good data on the LEAP-1A/-1B engines.

Quoting rangercarp (Reply 26):
If I had it my way Delta’s next narrowbody order would be a split between 738 and the C-series. But my money is on a mix of 319/320. Airbus will bend over backward to keep Delta a mixed-fleet airline.

Yes, Airbus will do everything they possibily can to win the DL NB order. But so will Boeing.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 31):
Quoting catiii (Reply 29):
Also remember that was under a totally different regime, that bought Boeing jets blindly based on loyalty. You continue to refuse to take into account the simple statements by DL management that P&L and ownership costs, not shiny new objects, is what will drive their decisions.

Blindly? If I could buy a 737-800 for $10 or an A320 for $15, while both are equally competative and my ownership cost over the life of the mortgage would be less with the 738, im going with the 738. That's essentiall what DL's been doing with Bowing for the past 15 years. That fact still held with the recent 739ER order. Furthermore, they are getting an a/c that seats more, weighs less, and has superior range capabilities vs. payload.

Correct.

Don't forget, DL is one of the few airlines that has raw first hand data on the actual operating costs of the A-319 and A-320 vs. the B-737-700 and B-737-800. If Airbus says the NEO is 15% cheaper to operate compared to the A-319/-320, DL has the numbers to figuer it out. If Boeing says the MAX is 12% cheaper to operate compared to the B-73G/H, DL has the numbers to figuer it out. They do not have to rely on the OEM numbers. The big difference between the NEO and MAX will not only be lifetime ownership costs, but aqusistion costs and spares costs, too.
 
catiii
Posts: 2387
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:15 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 31):
Blindly? If I could buy a 737-800 for $10 or an A320 for $15, while both are equally competative and my ownership cost over the life of the mortgage would be less with the 738, im going with the 738. That's essentiall what DL's been doing with Bowing for the past 15 years.

I think you and I are saying the same thing. My sense is that under Allen and Mullin, they blindly bought all Boeing because they wanted the newest and greatest. The new regime puts a premium on ownership costs vs. buying the newest and greatest. Now if the newest and greatest also is the cheapest...
 
FlyASAGuy2005
Posts: 3964
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:55 am

RE: Delta And 737 MAX Variants

Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:22 am

Quoting catiii (Reply 36):

I like how you put that last line. Good point!
What gets measured gets done.

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