UAL777UK
Posts: 2164
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:11 pm

Hi

So here is where I am going with this.

The 757 gets some bad press on here by some people saying that it should not be flying TATL. However it serves a great purpose for those thin routes where a WB would be overkill.

This got me thinking with UA/CO and for that matter DL. I wonder if we might see them expand in thr UK. I am thinking in particular whether we could see UA(CO) back at BRS and/or open up NCL to EWR.

I am not sure why CO stopped BRS in the first instance, on the two occasions that I flew the route, it was packed to the gills which i know does to translate to good yields but with the huge South West catchment, Wales and surrounding areas I am surprised it stopped.

As for NCL, we all know AA was going to start the route to JFK many years ago but that died at the first hurdle. Again with a large catchment area I would have thought the 757 would work perfectly here.

I have excluded AA from this simply because they have enough issues going on to even contemplate new routes and as we all know pretty much all their metal in the UK goes into LHR.

Your thoughts.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 382
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:42 pm

In these days of high fuel costs and the bad economy on both sides of the Atlantic, any flight that is not making money is probably not going to be flying. Given that context, BRS was probably discontinued due to lack of profitablity. Had it been profitable, and there had been no better use of that resource (ie, a more profitable flight), then it would probably be flying today.

I doubt you'll see BRS added again. It may have a "huge cachment area", but unless all those people are willing to pay higher fares (business/ unrestricted coach) then a plane full of low yield tourists just wont make money, ever, and be unappealing to airlines.

Sorry.
 
BMIFlyer
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting ual777uk (Thread starter):
I am not sure why CO stopped BRS in the first instance, on the two occasions that I flew the route, it was packed to the gills which i know does to translate to good yields but with the huge South West catchment, Wales and surrounding areas I am surprised it stopped.

My understanding was to use the 752 to add an extra frequency at LHR. Someone correct me if i'm wrong.
Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own
 
Tdan
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:58 pm

I think the wildcard here is AA. Once they get their mess cleaned up, a lot of the regional UK likely becomes viable as part of the BA/IB JV
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:27 pm

Quoting ual777uk (Thread starter):
I am not sure why CO stopped BRS in the first instance, on the two occasions that I flew the route, it was packed to the gills which i know does to translate to good yields but with the huge South West catchment, Wales and surrounding areas I am surprised it stopped.

Apparently one factor affecting the service was the lack of suitable freight facilities at Bristol meaning they flew with practically no cargo revenue, I was told this first hand by CO before they announced they were pulling the flight.

Other reasons I have heard since they pulled it;

- Premium loads were poor in winter.
- Aircraft was needed for more lucrative expansion at Heathrow.
- Runway length would cap cargo loads in summer if they could take cargo.
- APD increase made the flight less competitive.
- Fewer customers than expected stuck with CO once they entered *A, instead travelling with KL/AF still in Sky.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
Tdan
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:46 pm

Cargo on 757s is minimal at best and only helps at the margin on widebody flights, so I doubt this is the real reason

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 4):

- Premium loads were poor in winter.
- Aircraft was needed for more lucrative expansion at Heathrow.
- Runway length would cap cargo loads in summer if they could take cargo.
- APD increase made the flight less competitive.
- Fewer customers than expected stuck with CO once they entered *A, instead travelling with KL/AF still in Sky.

   Could see this as the case given it isn't a big business market
   Bigger issue may be that LHR is just down the road (and rail) from BRS
X, runway length is important, but only if passenger seats are being held for a narrowbody. Not sure if it was the case here
   HUGE issue
X, not a big alliance loyalty market or any more-so than BHX, BFS, EDI, etc where CO/UA have served without issue for years

Good post. Interesting information
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
UAL777UK
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:55 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 3):
I think the wildcard here is AA. Once they get their mess cleaned up, a lot of the regional UK likely becomes viable as part of the BA/IB JV

You may be right but with BA feeding those regions I am not convinced we will see that but for sure time will tell.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 4):
- Premium loads were poor in winter.
- Aircraft was needed for more lucrative expansion at Heathrow.
- Runway length would cap cargo loads in summer if they could take cargo.
- APD increase made the flight less competitive.
- Fewer customers than expected stuck with CO once they entered *A, instead travelling with KL/AF still in Sky.

All valid points and noted.

Was there/is there really that great a following of Sky at BRS? I guess so then in the front seats where the money is made but enough to make a commercial decision to pull out? If you want to keep the front seats or local contracts surely you just bring them over to Star with some form of incentive?
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:26 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 5):

Cargo on 757s is minimal at best and only helps at the margin on widebody flights, so I doubt this is the real reason

The people I spoke to seemed to think it didn't help, also because of this they couldn't carry animals. I'm not sure how big a market this was for CO, but given that they flew a team over to man a stand at the Crufts UK dog show I'm thinking it's not insignificant.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 5):
X, not a big alliance loyalty market or any more-so than BHX, BFS, EDI, etc where CO/UA have served without issue for years

It's quite different with BRS though, my understanding is that a major reason for CO starting the route was the amount of traffic they were seeing via their codeshare on KLM into AMS from BRS (and CWL), which started back in 2002/3 IIRC. Sky and AFKLM have a very strong presence and customer base at BRS which only increased when BA pulled out of the regions, so a SkyTeam TATL link was a natural fit for people to switch to when heading West. But when they switched to *A a lot of people went back to using KLM or AF who offered similar trip durations. LH also tried to break this dominance with 3x daily flights from BRS to FRA but they failed to attract the premium market away from Sky/AFKLM and pulled out. At the airports you mention like BHX you have a much more even distribution between the alliances and there is no single dominant player.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
BD338
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:09 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
At the airports you mention like BHX you have a much more even distribution between the alliances and there is no single dominant player.

*A might have the edge with FRA, DUS, MUC and coming this year BER service and the UA/CO service to EWR. Skyteam has good connections through AMS and CDG but Oneworld is basically absent from BHX these days, particularly for any TATL connections. I use either AF/KLM or the UA/CO service to EWR when I need to fly BHX-USA. I am hoping DL might add a BHX-DTW service but I doubt it this year. Any prospect of UA/CO adding an ORD or IAD flight for next year? AA going back to ORD looks unlikely given their current position and rumors of underperformance at ORD.
 
dc10bhx
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:43 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
The people I spoke to seemed to think it didn't help, also because of this they couldn't carry animals. I'm not sure how big a market this was for CO, but given that they flew a team over to man a stand at the Crufts UK dog show I'm thinking it's not insignificant.

Agreed. Pet travel for CO was a very big aspect for their flights. CO had a service called "Petsafe" which has been kept by UA since the merge. Bear in mind that CO were loading upto 4 or 5 live animals on board each flight (757's).

There were problems with Handling Agents at BRS for AVI (Live Animal Shipments) which meant that this revenue stream was missing.

CO (now UA) have for the last few years had a stand at Crufts for the very good reason that they make money out of moving AVI shipments. I speak to the Cargo Rep for UA on a regular basis regarding AVI shipments (not a lot of Cargo Agents like these shipments because of the hassle factor but believe me they can be worthwhile doing) and the chance of loading AVI on board a flight can be the difference between profit and loss for a flight.

I was involved in a Championship moving dogs back to the USA a few years back and without CO we would have struggled to move all the animals out without big delays. We moved over 25 dogs out based on their double daily flight from MAN in one week. This did not include their normal AVI traffic still moving at the time.

On a personal basis I like the 757 for TATL (certianly ex BHX) and would welcome DL / AA (or even US back to BHX) as long as they accept cargo on their flights. This I believe is why the US service did not last more than a season a few years back. They did not carry any cargo either inbound or outbound which I think would have made a big difference to the flight surviving.
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Bongodog1964
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:31 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 4):
Quoting ual777uk (Thread starter):
I am not sure why CO stopped BRS in the first instance, on the two occasions that I flew the route, it was packed to the gills which i know does to translate to good yields but with the huge South West catchment, Wales and surrounding areas I am surprised it stopped.

Apparently one factor affecting the service was the lack of suitable freight facilities at Bristol meaning they flew with practically no cargo revenue, I was told this first hand by CO before they announced they were pulling the flight.

Surely the 752 with a good passenger load is near to max weight when it does a West bound transatlantic ? proven out by the number of 752's havign to make fuel stops at present. I can't see in those circumstances that it has much cargo capacity, in addition its a narrowbody which is bulk loaded.
 
2travel2know2
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:37 pm

UA
EWR-NCL,
EWR-CWL (Summer + late December/early January seasonal - specially if CWL + Welsh government give incentives, the runway length allows cargo and airport handling agents are very good) and
EWR-ADZ (as long as it offers excellent connections to/from IAH)?
Something like EWR-LBA and EWR-LGW, back-up to MAN and LON catchment areas likely feasible.
Seasonal EWR-NQY and/or EWR-JER.. bit of a dream rightnow..
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:50 pm

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 11):
Seasonal EWR-NQY and/or EWR-JER.. bit of a dream rightnow..

Very much so, it's not even guaranteed that NQY will exist in a few years from now.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
2travel2know2
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RE: Any More Tatl To The UK Regions?

Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:29 am

EWR-EMA, EWR-DSA?.... not too many UK airports with long enough runways to allow a fully loaded B757 take-off.
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