Indy
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IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:30 pm

This is a continuation of a now archived discussion.

Is IND About To Emerge From A Long Slump? (by FWAERJ Dec 11 2011 in Civil Aviation)

I received an email today from the U.S. government providing me international travel statistics to and from Indiana and Indianapolis. I requested this a few weeks back. Here is the data from the email.

Overseas travelers to Indiana in 2010 = 132,000 (0.5% market share in 2010)

Overseas travelers to Indianapolis in 2010 = 79,000 (0.3% market share in 2010)

US travelers (residing in Indiana) to overseas countries in 2010 = 171,000 (0.6% market share in 2010)

US travelers (residing in Indianapolis) to overseas countries in 2010 = 86,000 (0.3% market share in 2010)

The Indianapolis numbers are up from the 2004 report I had which listed 66,000 and 122,000 compared to 79,000 and 132,000 from 2010. I was advised that due to the sampling size there may be a higher margin of error. Does this change anything when it comes to the possibility of long haul service out of IND? Who knows. I am just forwarding what I have found out. The rest can be left to interpretation.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
point2point
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting Indy (Thread starter):
Overseas travelers to Indiana in 2010 = 132,000 (0.5% market share in 2010)

Overseas travelers to Indianapolis in 2010 = 79,000 (0.3% market share in 2010)

US travelers (residing in Indiana) to overseas countries in 2010 = 171,000 (0.6% market share in 2010)

US travelers (residing in Indianapolis) to overseas countries in 2010 = 86,000 (0.3% market share in 2010)
Quoting Indy (Thread starter):
Does this change anything when it comes to the possibility of long haul service out of IND?

With these numbers trending in a downward direction, I would say that this would only decrease the likelihood of any long-haul out of IND.

Just my interpretation....


 
 
masseybrown
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:42 pm

Quoting Indy (Thread starter):
Does this change anything when it comes to the possibility of long haul service out of IND?

Not until somebody like Allegiant decides to fly to Europe . CLE-LHR was running around 75-80% loads for seasonal service when UA decided the route wasn't worth it; IND, without hub support, would probably struggle to do that well.
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 1):
With these numbers trending in a downward direction, I would say that this would only decrease the likelihood of any long-haul out of IND.

None seem to be trending downward. But the numbers may also be somewhat unreliable.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
point2point
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:29 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 3):
None seem to be trending downward. But the numbers may also be somewhat unreliable.

Okay, let's look at it this way...

If we take the average of the number of visitors in (132K and 79K) we'll get about 106K visitors into Indy.

Likewise, with the average of travelers out we get about 129K.

The total of the two are about 235K pax either going to or leaving from IND.

Now, if we divide the number of days per year into the number of pax, we get roughly some 155 pax per day, either coming into or going out of IND. And we have to consider that this involves many destinations.

Now, a 757 is the smallest bird that can be used for any sort of "long haul" destination (let's say LHR at about 4000 mi) and the 757 smallest version probably has over 200 seats.

So, can IND support any long haul with the info that is given?

(And just to further extrapolate, let's assume we have the high end figures of 132K and 171K, this would still be about 240 pax per day. So, if hypothetically they were all going to one destination such as LHR, then maybe there would be enough pax to make a 757 work, assuming they would also all be high-end paying pax as well. But this really is a lot of stretching for long haul IND service, isn't it?)

 
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:19 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
If we take the average of the number of visitors in (132K and 79K) we'll get about 106K visitors into Indy.

Likewise, with the average of travelers out we get about 129K.

The total of the two are about 235K pax either going to or leaving from IND.

Now, if we divide the number of days per year into the number of pax, we get roughly some 155 pax per day, either coming into or going out of IND. And we have to consider that this involves many destinations.

I'm not sure where you get the numbers from. Considering almost all international travelers eventually complete a round trip journey you have to consider that the 79,000 passengers from overseas eventually leave Indianapolis. So you have the 132,000 people fly Indianapolis going overseas and the 79,000 foreigners returning home. So that means you have roughly 211,000 people a year flying from Indianapolis to an overseas destination. 211,000/365 days = 578 passengers a day.

When the data was originally explained to me a number of years ago the Indianapolis and Indiana numbers for people going overseas were for citizens. The numbers for people coming from overseas were for non citizens. That is why I did my calculations based on the round trip ticket idea.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:03 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
So, can IND support any long haul with the info that is given?

No. IND would be a true stretch for the westbound leg on a 757. Even then, there isn't local demand or a large enough source of feed to make something like LHR work.

There may have been a time when something like this was " worth a shot" but looking around the industry it just wouldn't make sense. If IND were closer to the coast (like PIT), then you might be able to get something along the lines of what got started in PIT with DL 757 service feeding AF at CDG.
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 6):
No. IND would be a true stretch for the westbound leg on a 757. Even then, there isn't local demand or a large enough source of feed to make something like LHR work.

Given the news lately with the TATL 757's being diverted due to fuel I'd say there is no chance a 757 will ever run IND to LHR, CDG, AMS or whatever.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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exFWAOONW
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:07 am

The interesting point is there is this much demand logged without a direct flight. i.e. it is impossible to do without one or more connecting flights. I'm not a "build it and they will come" guy, but I have to believe the number of int'l pax would go up if it were easier to fly out of Indy with a direct flight.
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:07 am

It would be nice to see, but the problems i would guess are:

-IND has no feed, it is a spoke
-i cant imagne there is very much demand for premium traffic?
-Are there many business ties to europe that would need last minute fares and pay a premium for non-stop?
-IND has no dominate legacy carrier, No airline would be able to get even most of those o&d numbers at IND. There would always be cheaper connections and people loyal to another carrier.
-pushing the range of a 757
-Those numbers are probably heavily summer tilting so you could fill them some days in the summer easily but you might have days with very little demand. Also those summer heavy days are probably very price sensative
-so many convenient connection options along the way
 
flyguy89
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:34 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 7):
Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 6):
No. IND would be a true stretch for the westbound leg on a 757. Even then, there isn't local demand or a large enough source of feed to make something like LHR work.

Given the news lately with the TATL 757's being diverted due to fuel I'd say there is no chance a 757 will ever run IND to LHR, CDG, AMS or whatever.

If DL could do CVG-AMS on a 757 then IND-LON is very doable. IND's one huge advantage when it comes to the possibility of TATL service is that it's within 757 range of LON and perhaps CDG, cities like STL and MCI can't say the same thing. The best shot for IND would be an AA/BA 757 to LHR which would probably be sustainable on local traffic, but would need some sort of subsidy.
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:22 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 9):
-IND has no feed, it is a spoke

Just remember that for a European carrier IND would still be a spoke. The service wouldn't have to come from a U.S. carrier. But probably not until a large number of 787's have been delivered around the world.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
FWAERJ
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 9):
IND has no dominate legacy carrier, No airline would be able to get even most of those o&d numbers at IND.

There isn't a dominant legacy at IND, but there are two dominant alliances. Per the IAA's Airline Activity Reports, DL has a 25.1% market share at IND. The next closest legacies are UA with a 14.6% share (including CO) and US with a 13% share. AA's share is at 9.8%.

For that reason, a trans-Atlantic carrier at IND would likely have to be either a SkyTeam or Star Alliance member.
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timberwolf24
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:36 pm

The OP numbers are just that numbers. There is no way anyone could use the numbers how they are give to draw any conclusion if a international flight would work. The OP states "The US Government gave him 'INTERNATIONAL' travel statistics to/from Indiana and Indianapolis." Then goes on to list those number using the term 'OVERSEAS."
The first question that needs to be answered, are these international or overseas numbers. To me overseas means Europe, Middle East , Africa, Asia, Australia, New Zealand and deep South America. Now if they are international these numbers would include Canada, Mexico, Caribbean, Central America and Northern South America.
The second question that needs to be answered is the break down of where these people are going i.e. Europe, Asia ect. Third the Indiana state numbers you need to look at what part of the state these people are going are coming from. If there is a sizable number that are from Lake and Porter counties, a large portion of those people will continue to use ORD. As those counties are the Indiana suburbs of Chicago. Once those questions are cleared up then you can take those numbers and determine if international service from IND would work.
Personally I just do not see it happening unless IND becomes a hub for someone, other than that with IND location international demand can easily be accommodated through ORD, DTW, ATL, PHL, EWR and IAD.
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting timberwolf24 (Reply 13):
Now if they are international these numbers would include Canada, Mexico, Caribbean, Central America and Northern South America.

I do know these numbers do not include Canada or Mexico. I do not know the breakdown by continent. The only real value to the numbers is that it shows how many people go to and from Indiana and Indianapolis to overseas destinations. We have proof that Hoosiers leave the country and that people come here. That is about it though.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
AADC10
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:53 am

Quoting Indy (Thread starter):
I received an email today from the U.S. government providing me international travel statistics to and from Indiana and Indianapolis. I requested this a few weeks back. Here is the data from the email.
Quoting Indy (Reply 5):
I'm not sure where you get the numbers from. Considering almost all international travelers eventually complete a round trip journey you have to consider that the 79,000 passengers from overseas eventually leave Indianapolis. So you have the 132,000 people fly Indianapolis going overseas and the 79,000 foreigners returning home. So that means you have roughly 211,000 people a year flying from Indianapolis to an overseas destination. 211,000/365 days = 578 passengers a day.

578 passengers a day is to all international destinations. Only a fraction of those are going to LHR or anywhere in Europe. The FAA considers Canada and Mexico as international travel. Do your numbers exclude them? If not, I suspect that a good chunk of that 578 went to Toronto. Even overseas, some go to South America and a few may go to Asia so only a few would go to the the main European destinations, London or Paris.

IND is far away from getting a long haul flight and consolidation is making it even less likely. Mid-sized midwestern cities did not figure to do well under deregulation. Even big hubs like DFW and DEN whine about their limited European flights. A smaller non-hub is even less likely to get what they want. There are a lot of European destinations that cannot be reached non-stop from LAX. Until there is some major growth in air traffic, IND will languish for all flight at current fuel prices
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:24 am

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 15):
The FAA considers Canada and Mexico as international travel. Do your numbers exclude them? If not, I suspect that a good chunk of that 578 went to Toronto.

Those numbers do not include Canada or Mexico. Actually the Canadian numbers were very impressive. I got those a number of years ago but they included all forms of transportation and not just planes. Not very useful numbers either.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
steeler83
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:38 am

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 6):
There may have been a time when something like this was " worth a shot" but looking around the industry it just wouldn't make sense. If IND were closer to the coast (like PIT), then you might be able to get something along the lines of what got started in PIT with DL 757 service feeding AF at CDG.

Not to mention, that service was lured with the use of subsidies from both the State and Allegheny County. Of course, both have since expired this past June, and DL is now running this as seasonal 4x-5x weekly service. Plus, in some publication a couple of years ago regarding international travel out of PIT, at least 400 people per day were departing PIT for overseas destinations.
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:36 am

Would this be considered significant or insignificant?

CV is adding a Sunday flight to LUX from IND to transport inventory for Roche.

http://www.indystar.com/article/2012...ght-route-shipping-products-Europe
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
PITrules
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:20 am

I'd say its very significant. Other cities such as CLE, MCI, PIT, STL, etc would kill for 1x weekly Cargolux service, not to mention the 3x weekly service IND will be getting.
FLYi
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 6:16 am

I was surprised to find how little Indiana cargo actually leaves from IND. I assume the percentage was related to air cargo and not a percentage of all cargo.

The article states 2/3rds of the air cargo leaves from ORD and 2% leaves from IND. Where would the rest leave from? CVG?

[Edited 2012-01-13 22:23:37]
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
steeler83
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 6:38 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 20):
The article states 2/3rds of the air cargo leaves from ORD and 2% leaves from IND. Where would the rest leave from? CVG?

Probably. DHL does have a large cargo operation there...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
ATAIndy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 6:49 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 20):
The article states 2/3rds of the air cargo leaves from ORD and 2% leaves from IND. Where would the rest leave from? CVG?

Don't forget UPS at SDF.
Boiler up! - Next flights: IND-MIA, MIA-IND
 
Indy
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Sat Jan 14, 2012 7:08 pm

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 21):
Probably. DHL does have a large cargo operation there...
Quoting ATAIndy (Reply 22):
Don't forget UPS at SDF.

Lets not forget that IND has a huge FX hub. It is possible that in this story DHL, UPS and Fedex don't count in the air cargo category.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
LV
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RE: IND Slump Continued

Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:12 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 20):
The article states 2/3rds of the air cargo leaves from ORD and 2% leaves from IND. Where would the rest leave from? CVG?
Quoting Indy (Reply 23):
Lets not forget that IND has a huge FX hub. It is possible that in this story DHL, UPS and Fedex don't count in the air cargo category.

Yeah I was wondering about those stats as well. I mean I would think FX alone would help.

What IND needs is a slump buster.... CVG is looking lonely and desperate and the bar is closing  

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