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Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:20 am

Now that Airbus have at last released their numbers, we can take stock of the year just gone.

Widebody deliveries in 2011

TOTAL : 218 (the highest annual total ever.)

Airbus : 113 (52%)
Boeing : 105 (48%)

By type…
A330 : 87
777 : 73
A380 : 26
767 : 20
747 : 9
787 : 3

By version…
777-300ER : 52
A330-300 : 43
A330-200 : 35
A380-800 : 26
767-300ER : 15
777F : 15
747-8F : 9
777-200LR : 6
767-300F : 5
A330MRTT : 5
A330F : 4
787-8 : 3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ENGINES DELIVERED (not counting spares) : 504
Airbus : 276 (55%)
Boeing : 228 (45%)

Total engine deliveries:
GE : 244 (48%)
RR : 174 (35%)
EA : 48 (10%)
PW : 38 (8%)

Engine deliveries (Airbus):
RR : 168 (61%)
EA : 48 (17%)
PW : 38 (14%)
GE : 22 (8%)

Engine deliveries (Boeing):
GE : 222 (97%)
RR : 6 (3%)


TOTAL DELIVERIES BY ENGINE
GE90 : 146 (30%)
Trent 700 : 112 (22%)
CF6 : 62 (12%)
Trent 900 : 56 (11%)
GP7000 : 48 (10%)
PW4000 : 38 (8%)
GEnx : 36 (7%)
Trent 1000 : 6 (1%)
 
mwhcvt
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:12 am

Interesting that had Boeing failed to deliver any 787 last year they would not have delivered a single RR engine  
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:33 am

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
747-8F : 9

With the spat with Cargolux delaying the first until October thats an incredibly impressive number, it's almost one per week!
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:52 pm

Quoting MWHCVT (Reply 1):

Interesting that had Boeing failed to deliver any 787 last year they would not have delivered a single RR engine

Woa .. you are right!
 
I never realised that.
How is this possible?
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:10 pm

A couple of points.

This is the first year ever that both Boeing and Airbus have delivered more than 100 widebodies each.

It's the highest number of widebodies Airbus have ever delivered in a calendar year.

It's the first time ever that Airbus have outdelivered Boeing in widebodies in two consecutive years (2010 + 2011).

Interesting that more A330s were delivered than 777s.

Boeing delivered 29 freighters. Airbus delivered 4.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 3):
How is this possible?

Well, before the 787 came on stream, where were the RR Boeings? The 757 is gone. The 747 is only available with GE. And the last RR 777 was delivered last year.

Boeing is now a GE fortress.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:47 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Interesting that more A330s were delivered than 777s.

The average 2011 777 production rate was lower than that of the A330. As Boeing ramps that rate, it should overtake A330 deliveries sometime in 2013.
 
Scipio
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:43 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
The average 2011 777 production rate was lower than that of the A330. As Boeing ramps that rate, it should overtake A330 deliveries sometime in 2013.

Are you sure?

The latest I heard was that Boeing's ramp-up was aimed at 8.3 B777's per month from early-2013 onward. Meanwhile, Airbus claims to be moving up to 9.5 A330s per month...

Both manufacturers have been promising production increases for some time already, but these did not (yet) materialize in 2011. A330 and B777 deliveries remained at their 2010 levels in 2011...

Presumably this is due to the long lags in aircraft production, as the supply chain had to switch gears from declining or decelerating production rates in 2009-2010 to rising ones in 2011?

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
This is the first year ever that both Boeing and Airbus have delivered more than 100 widebodies each.

Yes, and on current plans they might be delivering 200+ each within a few years. Makes one wonder...

Airbus has a backlog of 1092 widebodies, i.e., more than twice as many as they delivered over the past five years (501). It is telling of how manufacturing, more so than design, seems to have become the main challenge for the producers (see also the A380 and B787 cases).

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
It's the first time ever that Airbus have outdelivered Boeing in widebodies in two consecutive years (2010 + 2011).

Presumably not to be followed by a third consecutive year...

Airbus should deliver about 130 widebodies in 2012--around 100 A330s and 30 A380s.
With B787, B747 and B777 production all ramping up, Boeing should reach 150 deliveries or more.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:18 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 6):
The latest I heard was that Boeing's ramp-up was aimed at 8.3 B777's per month from early-2013 onward. Meanwhile, Airbus claims to be moving up to 9.5 A330s per month...

I was not aware (or forgot - so many posts) Airbus was also increasing the A330 production rate.

So yes, A330 deliveries should continue to outpace 777 deliveries.

The real surprise for me was Boeing getting 20 767s out the door while also moving the FAL.

[Edited 2012-01-18 11:18:39]
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:39 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 4):


This is the first year ever that both Boeing and Airbus have delivered more than 100 widebodies each.

That's really exciting for both! The next year is probably going to be even better. Airbus will have similar numbers, but Boeing should be up to 175 - 200 depending on 787 and 747-8 deliveries.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:32 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Boeing is now a GE fortress.

You think that that is positive? There was a time that a dual or triple engine option was offered (mostly GE, PW and RR) for wide bodied planes. Why are there so many planes nowadays where only one engine is offered (and I bet that competition is possible) A345/6, A342/3, 77W, 748, A350 etc.

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
Widebody deliveries in 2011

Have you also got the delivery numbers for the narrow bodies? Apologies if this thread already exists.

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
A330 : 87

Absolutely amazing that this plane is the best selling wide body jet nearly 20 years after its first flight.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:09 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
I was not aware (or forgot - so many posts) Airbus was also increasing the A330 production rate.

According to this article, A330 production will reach 10 per month in the course of this year, and Airbus plans to decide soon whether to move up further to 11 per month:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...rease%20Before%20A320&channel=comm
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:51 am

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
And the last RR 777 was delivered last year.

Correction: in 2009! Time flies...

Quoting Scipio (Reply 6):

Presumably not to be followed by a third consecutive year...

Unlikely!  
Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
The real surprise for me was Boeing getting 20 767s out the door

  

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 9):
You think that that is positive?

I do not!  
Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 9):
Have you also got the delivery numbers for the narrow bodies?

'Fraid not. It takes me all my time to count widebodies.  
Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 9):
Absolutely amazing that this plane is the best selling wide body jet nearly 20 years after its first flight.

Be careful. More A330s were delivered than any other widebody in 2011 (and in 2010, for the record) but The best-selling widebody of 2011 was the 777 (by a mile).
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:52 am

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
777-300ER : 52
A330-300 : 43
A330-200 : 35
A380-800 : 26
767-300ER : 15
777F : 15
747-8F : 9
777-200LR : 6
767-300F : 5
A330MRTT : 5
A330F : 4
787-8 : 3

And as a slightly different context, in terms of passenger capacity..

777-300ER : 17 160 m2
777-200LR : 1 680 m2
767-300ER : 2 700 m2
787-8 : 675 m2

Total : 22 215 m2

A380-800 : 14 350 m2
A330-300 : 10 965 m2
A330-200 : 8 050 m2

Total : 33 365 m2

And one statistic that I hope catches the eye is the one for a particular aircraft pigeon-holed into its own special "niche"...  

Rgds
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:07 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 6):
Both manufacturers have been promising production increases for some time already, but these did not (yet) materialize in 2011. A330 and B777 deliveries remained at their 2010 levels in 2011..

Could the Fukishima/Tsunami disaster have been part of the delayed (???) ramp up? According to Airbus they had some delivery issues with Japanese suppliers after the tsunami
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:14 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
And one statistic that I hope catches the eye is the one for a particular aircraft pigeon-holed into its own special "niche"...

That would be rather a large "niche", I assume...  
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:19 am

Where there no A330-200F delivered last year like to TK for example... ????
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:29 am

Quoting B738FlyUIA (Reply 15):
Where there no A330-200F delivered last year like to TK for example... ????

They delivered 4. 2 to Malaysian/MASkargo, 1 to Turkish and 1 to Hong Kong
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:02 am

The airlines receiving the most widebodies were...

Emirates (17) : 5 x A380 + 12 x 777 (including 1 leased 777F)

Turkish (11) : 4 x A330 + 7 x 777 (not counting one VIP A330)

Korean (10) : 5 x A380 + 2 x A330 + 3 x 777
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:07 am

Quoting someone83 (Reply 16):
They delivered 4. 2 to Malaysian/MASkargo, 1 to Turkish and 1 to Hong Kong

Thank you someone83
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:21 am

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
Widebody deliveries in 2011

TOTAL : 218 (the highest annual total ever.)

I was intrigued by this and ran the numbers...

It turns out there were higher widebody deliveries in two previous years, 1998 and 1999.

Highest ever was in 1999, with 254 deliveries:

Boeing: 47 B747s, 44 B767s, and 83 B777s (total of 174)
MDD: 8 MD11s (total of 8)
Airbus: 8 A300s, 44 A330s, and 20 A340s (total of 72)

Second highest was 1998, with 247 deliveries:

Boeing: 53 B747s, 47 B767s, 74 B777s (total of 174)
MDD: 12 MD11s (total of 12)
Airbus: 13 A300s, 1 A310, 23 A330s, and 24 A340s (total of 61)

Of course, the 1999 record stands to be broken in 2012  
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:54 am

One other interesting fact: during 2011, the A330/A340 overtook the B747 as the most-ordered widebody family of all times.

Total orders for A330/A340 family airliners stand at 1,563 (including, strangely enough, two unfilled A340 orders). Orders for the B747 (all models) stand at 1,524.

This is the full ranking:

A330/A340: 1,563
B747: 1,524
B777: 1,363
A330: 1,186
B767: 1,086
B787: 860
A300/A310: 816
DC-10/MD-11: 646
A300: 561
A350: 555
DC-10: 446
A340: 377
A310: 255
A380: 253
L-1011: 249
MD-11: 200

[Edited 2012-01-19 03:59:46]
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:56 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 19):
It turns out there were higher widebody deliveries in two previous years, 1998 and 1999.

Whoops! I didn't check back that far.  

Amazing to think that we are not now living in the golden age of widebodies.

But thanks for the correction.   
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:32 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 21):
But thanks for the correction.  

You're welcome  
Quoting PM (Reply 21):
Amazing to think that we are not now living in the golden age of widebodies.

Well, I think we are. The next few years will be great!

And probably 2011 was a record year in terms of widebody capacity delivered (number of seats, payload capacity, volume). But I don't have the means to verify those numbers...
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:47 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 20):
A330/A340: 1,563

You are surely not suggesting that the A330/A340 are one family, are you? What a radical idea. I bet that will go down well here...  

You are a man after my own heart!
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:12 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 20):
One other interesting fact: during 2011, the A330/A340 overtook the B747 as the most-ordered widebody family of all times.
Quoting PM (Reply 23):
You are surely not suggesting that the A330/A340 are one family, are you?

The A-330 and A-340 are two seperate airplane families, with two seperate missions. Airlines use them differently, and their capacity is far below what the capacity of the B-747 is. When an airlines wants to downgrade a B-747 route, they go to the A-340 family, when downgrading from the A-340 family, they go to the A-330, if that airline flies all 3 types (like LH).
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:25 pm

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
we can take stock of the year just gone.

Thank you for adding some ( optional... ) insight to the most recent year's fly-past.   
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:18 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 14):
That would be rather a large "niche", I assume...

Couldn't possibly comment.  

I've just assembled this little table concerning the backlogs at the end of last year, purely out of curiosity.
It might interest you.  

It shows the backlog comparison for both manufacturers measured by passenger capacity (which by default ignores the freighters of course), measuring passenger capacity by cabin area (in m2), as the only way I know to eliminate the variable of individual airline configuration. (note :- the backlog numbers I've quoted for the 767-300 (pax) and 748i may not be exactly right, but I'm sure the difference is in the weeds.)



I make it that Airbus have 1 038 widebody pax aircraft in backlog, and Boeing have 1 220, for a total of 2 258. How is that for a bit of context on your delivery statistics for last year....

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
TOTAL : 218 (the highest annual total ever.)

Airbus : 113 (52%)
Boeing : 105 (48%)

Eek. That delivery rate is less than 1/10 of the total widebody backlog   

Intriguingly this appears to show that by passenger capacity (measured by cabin size), the Airbus backlog forms 51% of the total and the Boeing backlog 49%
The planes in Airbus's backlog are on average bigger than those in Boeing's.

Also by capacity, the A380 is Airbus's equal biggest backlog together with the A350-900 (31% each)

The 787-8 is Boeing's leader at 39%, followed by the 773ER at 30%

Finally, for curiosity, the right hand side of the table shows the backlog capacity by market segment.

200 - 249 m2 - 28%
250 - 299 m2 - 35%
300 - 350 m2 - 18%
Over 400 m2 - 18%

And that Boeing have clear leads in the 200 - 249 m2 segment and 300 - 349 m2 segment ......
And Airbus have clear leads in the 250 - 299m2 segment and over 400 m2 segment

Which sounds intuitively correct, I'd guess..

Anyway. Enjoy

Rgds
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:49 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
I make it that Airbus have 1 038 widebody pax aircraft in backlog, and Boeing have 1 220, for a total of 2 258. How is that for a bit of context on your delivery statistics for last year....

You missed the 10 Unspecified 787's in Boeing's backlog. (870 total)  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:54 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 33):
You missed the 10 Unspecified 787's in Boeing's backlog. (870 total)

My understanding was that they have been booked THIS year, not at end 2011, which was my datum point, and which the chart identifies...

I'll happily stand corrected, though  

Rgds
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:05 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
My understanding was that they have been booked THIS year, not at end 2011

Ahhh... I see. you're good then.  

Does that mean Boeing has 100% WB backlog for 2012?  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
travelhound
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:49 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):

Dominic Gates has an interesting article in the Seattle Times. He compares A&B aircraft sales on $ values. Totally different numbers again.

Sorry working from my I-phone. I can't reference the link.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:38 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 39):
Dominic Gates has an interesting article in the Seattle Times. He compares A&B aircraft sales on $ values. Totally different numbers again.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2017263970_boeing18.html

To recap the article, Avitas calculates Boeing's planes generated about $33 billion at delivery and Airbus' were worth $32 billion. In terms of value, Airbus' deliveries were calculated to be worth $70 billion and Boeing's $66 billion.



A number of analysts - including Gates and Airbus' John Leahy - expect Boeing to take the sales title in 2012 due to the 737MAX sales campaigns being wrapped up. I think we can comfortably expect these campaigns to generate around 1000 sales as 737 operators place their fleet expansion and replacement orders in response to Airbus' doing so in 2011.

I imagine the 777 will also have a strong year (though likely north of 100 as opposed to south of 200) and now that the 787 is in service, airlines are placing orders instead of canceling them.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
A number of analysts - including Gates and Airbus' John Leahy - expect Boeing to take the sales title in 2012

Boeing should also come out ahead in widebody deliveries for the first time in three years.

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
The airlines receiving the most widebodies were...

Emirates (17) : 5 x A380 12 x 777 (including 1 leased 777F)

Turkish (11) : 4 x A330 7 x 777 (not counting one VIP A330)

Korean (10) : 5 x A380 2 x A330 3 x 777

Nitwit. I was doing this in a rush at the end of the day and forgot Cathay.  

Cathay (13) : 3 x A330 6 x 777 4 x 747

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
How is that for a bit of context on your delivery statistics for last year....

All contributions gratefully received!   

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
the Airbus backlog forms 51% of the total and the Boeing backlog 49%

Time and again, it's amazing how neck-and-neck the two are. Another example: in the past five years Airbus have delivered 501 widebodies and Boeing 496. That's 50.3% to Airbus and 49.7% to Boeing.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:16 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 20):

One other interesting fact: during 2011, the A330/A340 overtook the B747 as the most-ordered widebody family of all times.

Total orders for A330/A340 family airliners stand at 1,563 (including, strangely enough, two unfilled A340 orders). Orders for the B747 (all models) stand at 1,524.

This is the full ranking:

A330/A340: 1,563
B747: 1,524
B777: 1,363
A330: 1,186
B767: 1,086

If you're counting the the A330/A340 as a single family of widebodies.. I'd like to make a counter argument that we should add the 1049 B757 deliveries to the the B767 figure. Total 2135. Yes I get that the B757 isn't a widebody.. but it shares a common type rating.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:47 am

Quoting PM (Reply 46):

Sponsor Message:
Quoting astuteman (Reply 45):

Sponsor Message:

Yes, but I think it's safe to say the main thrust of the Article still has relevance and contributes to the thread.

I see Cathay ordered another six A350-900's today.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:50 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 49):
I see Cathay ordered another six A350-900's today.

Really?! Where is that announced?

Aha. On the Cathay website. Thanks!

[Edited 2012-01-19 23:53:54]
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:45 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 46):
Rather casts doubt on the knowledge/understanding/bias of the author.

While he writes for The Seattle Times, Dominic Gates reporting history is not one that reflects a person who doesn't understand the industry they are reporting on or being just a Boeing cheerleader. That being said, I do find his comment about the A350 to be odd. And he is admittedly parsing things by referring to "very large aircraft" orders, which would technically exclude the 767, 787 and A330 families.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:22 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 52):
Dominic Gates reporting history is not one that reflects a person who doesn't understand the industry they are reporting on or being just a Boeing cheerleader.

I'll take your word for it. I'd never heard of him till now.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 52):
I do find his comment about the A350 to be odd.

"Odd" as in "wrong", "ill-informed", "silly"??  
Quoting Stitch (Reply 52):
And he is admittedly parsing things by referring to "very large aircraft" orders, which would technically exclude the 767, 787 and A330 families.

One can always cut the numbers anyway you like to 'prove' whatever point you want. It's difficult to avoid the suspicion that Mr. Gates is doing just that by comparing 777s (all models) + 747s against (only) A380s. He might just as easily have noted that Airbus delivered 113 widebodies to Boeing's 105. Intentionally or not, what he has written is likely to mislead and mis-inform his readers.

But, as you would say, *shrug*.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:04 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
A number of analysts - including Gates and Airbus' John Leahy - expect Boeing to take the sales title in 2012 due to the 737MAX sales campaigns being wrapped up. I think we can comfortably expect these campaigns to generate around 1000 sales as 737 operators place their fleet expansion and replacement orders in response to Airbus' doing so in 2011.

Yes, I guess so too. 2012 will be the year of the MAX (>1,000+). Though we might see more NEO orders too (appr. 500).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
I imagine the 777 will also have a strong year (though likely north of 100 as opposed to south of 200) and now that the 787 is in service, airlines are placing orders instead of canceling them.

for the second year in row? Who would you expect - for instance - to order another 50 77W? Like the A345, orders for the 77L seem to be rather unlikely. I expect the 77F to gain some orders, but again, from whom? Who will order 787s?

Quoting jbmitt (Reply 33):
If you're counting the the A330/A340 as a single family of widebodies.. I'd like to make a counter argument that we should add the 1049 B757 deliveries to the the B767 figure. Total 2135. Yes I get that the B757 isn't a widebody.. but it shares a common type rating.

The 757 and 767 are different planes. Comparing a wide body plane with a narrow body is like comparing apples with pears. Though I would separate the sales of the A330 and the A340 too, these planes are generally spoken the same, except for the engines and some other details.
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:52 pm

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 38):
for the second year in row?

Not just the second year in a row, but for a number of years in a row going forward.

Boeing is not increasing the production rate for the 777 to 100 frames per year just so they can clear out the backlog and close the line as soon as possible.  
 
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RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 3:28 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 24):
The A-330 and A-340 are two seperate airplane families, with two seperate missions.

I think it is legitimate for two aircraft that were designed together, had their EIS in the same year, share for the most part fuselage and wings, and are (were) produced on the same line, to be considered one family.

In any case, I don't consider the "definition of a family" a very useful discussion. The only point I wanted to make is that, if considered one family, the A330/A340 is the most-ordered widebody family of all times.

As you see in the list I posted, I took care to list families and individual models. This way, everyone can make up their own mind according to their own definition of the concept of "family".
 
Scipio
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:24 pm

Complementing the order-based ranking of widebodies that I posted earlier, here is the ranking based on deliveries (also as per end-2011):

B747: 1,427
A330/A340: 1,212
B767: 1,014
B777: 983
A330: 837
A300/A310: 816
DC-10/MD-11: 646
A300: 561
DC-10: 446
A340: 375
A310: 255
L-1011: 249
MD-11: 200
A380: 67
B787: 3
A350: 0

On present trends, the B747 looks set to lose the top spot sometime around 2015 to the A330/A340 (for those who consider this a family). The B777 and A330 are rapidly making their way toward the top of the ranking. The B777 will soar by the B767 in the course of this year, and the A330 is likely to do the same within about 3 years.

The A330, currently the fastest-produced widebody airliner, is likely to narrow but not close the gap with the B777 during the next few years, to perhaps less than a 100-unit difference before things become unpredictable.

The B777 and A330 (when not considering its family ties with the A340) are both contenders to take the top spot at some point, but much depends on the manufacturers' development plans for these models. The B777X and a hypothetical re-engined A330 could take the production run of both models well beyond the 2000 mark. But in the absence of major investment in updates, they should see their popularity wane in the second half of this decade.

Long-term, I suspect the race is between the B787 and A350, both of which may well be produced in the thousands...

I also suspect that, at some point in a distant future, the A380 may take the crown of most-produced VLA of all times (i.e., surpass the B747's production numbers).

[Edited 2012-01-21 08:38:53]
 
Scipio
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: Widebody Deliveries In 2011

Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:51 pm

I created some charts to add historical perspective to the discussion.

This one shows overall annual widebody deliveries since the beginning of the jet age:

Historic widebody deliveries since the beginning of the jet age



This is the same chart, but with deliveries broken down per manufacturer:

Historic widebody deliveries broken down per manufacturer



And, for completeness, here is the breakdown per manufacturer as a percentage of total deliveries, starting from the beginning of the widebody age (i.e., 1969):

Widebody market shares



These charts show the steadily upward trend in widebody deliveries, with peaks driven by model introductions and (usually with a lag) economic cycles.

So far, we had four clearly identifiable cycles, with peaks substantially exceeding the previous ones in each cycle. These are the cycles, as identified by their peaks:

1973 (126 deliveries), driven by the introduction in rapid succession of the first three widebodies--the B747 (1969), DC-10 (1971) and L-1011 (1972). This cycle was cut short by the 1973 oil crisis and subsequent economic downturn.

1980 (177 deliveries): this peak cannot be linked to specific model introductions, but seems to be driven by a combination of the increasing availability of improved versions of the existing widebody families (B747, DC-10 and Tristar), the growing success of the A300 (introduced in 1974, but initially produced in very low volumes), and economic developments. The cycle was cut short by the second oil crisis and the subsequent recessions of the early-1980s, despite the post-peak emergence of new models that would later become quite successful: the B767 (1982), the A300-600 (1983), and the A310 (1983). With the dwindling popularity of the tri-jets and the absence of new models from MDD and Lockheed, the late stages of this cycle also saw the beginnings of the current Boeing-Airbus duopoly.

1992 (212 deliveries): this cycle was driven by the introduction of the B747-400 (1989), B767-300 (1986) and -300ER (1988), and MD-11 (1990), and supported in its late (post-peak) stages by the emergence of the A330/A340 family in 1993 (1993 deliveries almost matched those of 1992, at 210 frames, as a jump in Airbus deliveries compensated for declines at Boeing and MDD). This cycle was supported by favorable economic conditions during the late 1980s (including the reverse oil shock of 1986) and cut short by the recessions of the early 1990s (and, to a lesser extent, the oil price spike related to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait).

1999 (254 deliveries): this cycle was linked strongly with the introduction of the B777 (1995) and, in second order, the A330-200 (1998). On the economic side, it was supported by the 1990s Asian economic boom, the tech and stock market bubbles, and low energy prices (notably, the 1998-99 trough in oil prices). It was brought to an end by a series of economic and political shocks: the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998), the bursting of the tech and stock market bubbles (starting in 2000-2001), and 9/11 and its repercussions (from 2001 onward).

Currently, we are in the upward phase of a fifth cycle, which looks set to bring us new delivery records in 2012 and beyond. However, this cycle seems different from the previous four. It was the first to start from a trough that was below the previous one (147 frames in 2004 versus 157 in 1994). The cycle also has been slow in gathering speed and is already set to be the longest yet in terms of time between peaks. However, the upcoming peaks are again driven by new models, in the first place the B787 (2011) but also the A380 (2007, but delayed impact due to the production problems) and B747-8 (2011), and--if the cycle lasts long enough--the A350.

On the economic side, this is the first cycle that is supported by high oil prices, as persistently high oil prices encourage investment in newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft. It is also the first cycle that is disconnected from economic developments in the US and Western Europe (both of which are in the doldrums...). It is driven mainly (directly and indirectly) by economic growth and increasing wealth outside the "old" economies. With economic prospects as uncertain as they are, it is very hard to predict how long this cycle will last and when it will peak (what if the Chinese economy crashes?). But the momentum seems to be there, and the historically high backlogs of the manufacturers suggest that this cycle may persist for a long time to come and may be unique in many ways (including, as I mentioned in an earlier post, by having its main constraints on the manufacturing side)...

Finally, I found it striking that the introduction of the 777-300ER and A340NG do not seem to have had a noticeable impact on delivery volumes. Their main effect, by and large, seems to have been to maintain overall B777 and A340 production volumes (in the latter case, just for a few more years), as production of earlier variants dropped off.

[Edited 2012-01-21 13:57:33]

[Edited 2012-01-21 13:59:06]

[Edited 2012-01-21 14:12:11]

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