Jonathanxxxx
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The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:38 pm

In the past few years, we saw many carriers come to MIA with mixed results. Air Europa did pretty well in the beginning but was eventually killed off the MIA-MAD route after Iberia started MIA-BCN and the JV was put in place. Then we saw KLM start MIA and even plan to expand the service for S12 only to see it converted to a Winter Seasonal service. Not only that but LH is not planning on operating the A380 for S12 and AF will switch from 744 to a 77W for W12.

Yet on the other hand, additions such as Transaero, Arkefly, and Corsair have done very well and plan to add frequencies. Also, AZ seems to being doing well with their MXP flight and BA has added a third daily frequency. The flight that everybody thought would fail; MIA-LIS; has done very well and TP has added a fifth weekly frequency for S12. AB also seems to be doing well and with an AA code-share should do even better.

My question is what can we expect to see in the Miami-Europe market? We see that the charter-like airlines have done very well and BA, AB, AZ, TP and LX have all made it work. Could AA after BK with a lower cost structure start secondary European destinations from MIA? Not only that but TK has also presented plans to start MIA sometime in 2012 but no confirmation yet. SU has also applied for MIA-SVO so could they be another possibility? Wondering what your opinions are.

- Jonathanxxxx
 
wilco737
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):

I guess the competition is pretty big on these routes. So many airlines fly there. And especially during the European winter many want to leave here due to the better weather in MIA.

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):
Not only that but LH is not planning on operating the A380 for S12

True. It will be back on 744 during summer. But winter it will be back on 388.

wilco737
  
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:54 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):
Could AA after BK with a lower cost structure start secondary European destinations from MIA?

In hindsight AA should have started this movement a decade ago instead of placing all of their eggs into just ORD and JFK. While most of the JFK expansions have gained traction, many at ORD have turned out to be a complete flop (or eliminated after years of service).

Anyways, back to the topic. Some areas of potential I could forsee are (and this is all speculation):

1. More opportunities between MIA and the UK/Ireland. However, if a lot of that traffic is heading to MCO (i.e. from DUB and MAN, etc) then maybe this is moot.

2. Possible secondary, but premium-heavy, cities in Italy, France, etc. Again, there are still complications here, one being that cities like NCE, VCE, etc. don't have hub carriers and AA sure as hell will not attempt those markets if they're not even doing MIAFRA or MIAMXP. In addition, the economic situation in Europe is shaky. Finally, you have DL already providing these connections over JFK.

I think that when you take into account that you have the majors (LHR, FRA, CDG, ZRH, MAD and AMS) plus Eastern Europe (DME/SVO), the secondaries (BER, LIS, BCN, MXP, etc) and potentially the Middle Eastern ones (IST and possibly DXB) you have the map pretty well covered.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:20 pm

The future is bright as long as European travel to the United States remains healthy. Of that falls, so will Miami-Europe capacity. One out of every nine Europeana flying to the United States is flying to Miami. The market is highly dependent on healthy tourist demand from Europe that can be affected by the on going European crisis. On the flip side, Miami remains a premium holiday destination for Europeana and attracts a wealthier group of tourist than other markets, which helps. A weak travel market is going to hurt markets like Germany, Scandanvia and the Netherlands the most; markets like Spain, Italy and Russia that have significant VFR ties and stronger business ties are likely going to remain sound, as is of course Miami-London, which is an en bigger market than Miami-Sao Paulo.

I don't expect any new European carriers sans maybe Aeroflot and Tukish, but an American Airlines with a lower cost structure can pave the way for flights like Milan, Rome, Brussels and Manchester. I also think Air Berlin might come to Miami-Munich. Very large local market, and AB has the cost structure and the AA partnership to make it work.
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jfk777
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:29 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):
Not only that but LH is not planning on operating the A380 for S12 and AF will switch from 744 to a 77W for W12.

The Air France 777-300ER with no First Class has long been planned for Miami, the surprise is it has NOT happened yet. AF 744 are old and worn, its tome MIA got off the AF " old and worn" list too.
 
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viasa
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:37 pm

Here are the european airports with flights from/to MIA

AMS: KL / OR
BCN: IB
TXL: AB
DUS: AB / LH
FRA: LH
LIS: TP
LHR: AA / BA / DL / VS
MAD: AA / IB / UX
MXP: AZ
DME: UN
CDG: AA / AF
ORY: SS
FCO: AZ
ZRH: LX
 
Jonathanxxxx
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:46 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 2):
. Possible secondary, but premium-heavy, cities in Italy, France,

I always wondered if MIA could support flights to those cities. How would a MIA-NCE, MIA-VCE, MIA-AGP or something similar work?

Quoting viasa (Reply 5):
AMS: KL / OR
BCN: IB
TXL: AB
DUS: AB / LH
FRA: LH
LIS: TP
LHR: AA / BA / DL / VS
MAD: AA / IB / UX
MXP: AZ
DME: UN
CDG: AA / AF
ORY: SS
FCO: AZ
ZRH: LX

Well yes as of right now that's what it looks like. But for S12 you'd have to take out UX and KL.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
The Air France 777-300ER with no First Class has long been planned for Miami, the surprise is it has NOT happened yet. AF 744 are old and worn, its tome MIA got off the AF " old and worn" list too.

Your right but it is a downgrade in capacity and I thought the 744 had First Class in it? If so then it is another downgrade.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Reply 6):
I always wondered if MIA could support flights to those cities. How would a MIA-NCE, MIA-VCE, MIA-AGP or something similar work?

MIANCE and MIAVCE are big enough for a holiday airline, like Meridiana or Corsair, to make work.

And there is no F on the AF 744. The plane is a junk heap inside. With the 77W, MIA finally gets a competitive product and premium economy class, which the 744 also doesn't have. AF is phasing out the 744 fleet, IIRC, and the 77W wi be its new biggest capacity Boeing. The only way to match the 744 is to bring in the 14J configuration 77W used to Orlando. No way is AF sending only 14 J seats a day to Miami. You're reading too much into it - this is in every way a very good thing. Also helps balance out capacity by KLM. MDAD has received requests from AF about a possible Concorse H gate conversion to an A380 gate, but nothing past the preliminary stages.

[Edited 2012-01-18 12:54:09]
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reifel
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:04 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):
MIA-LIS; has done very well and TP has added a fifth weekly frequency for S12

I always had the impression they do bad. From Germany TAP's ALL2MIA fare is the cheapest for Germany-Miami out there, and it's widely available. Why would they sell such cheap fares if they're doing good? I'm not talking about high season, where probably everyone does quite wel... Same with NYC btw...
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:12 pm

There really isnt much left to fill in the MIA-Europe market minus maybe a couple of more charter flights.

Ive always wanted to see AA fly MIA-Italy. If AA could get the cruise contracts back, MIA-MAN would be welcome back.

Other than that, I think they have what they need overall.
It is what it is...
 
Reggaebird
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:12 pm

I fully expect to see more and more scenes like this in Miami - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW7THNzfojA

I think Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, Emirates and Qatar will all have multiple daily A380 services from their European hubs where they can feed tourists into South Florida for decades to come.

[Edited 2012-01-18 13:14:19]
 
anstar
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:14 pm

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Thread starter):
Could AA after BK with a lower cost structure start secondary European destinations from MIA?

And VS have recently kept it at a 744 instead of a 346 for the winter season
 
Jonathanxxxx
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:12 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 7):
And there is no F on the AF 744. The plane is a junk heap inside. With the 77W, MIA finally gets a competitive product and premium economy class, which the 744 also doesn't have. AF is phasing out the 744 fleet, IIRC, and the 77W wi be its new biggest capacity Boeing. The only way to match the 744 is to bring in the 14J configuration 77W used to Orlando. No way is AF sending only 14 J seats a day to Miami. You're reading too much into it - this is in every way a very good thing. Also helps balance out capacity by KLM. MDAD has received requests from AF about a possible Concorse H gate conversion to an A380 gate, but nothing past the preliminary stages.

Ah, I see. So the 744 had a worse product and no F class. I knew the product was worse but I thought it had F class. So thank you for the correction I did not know that.

Quoting anstar (Reply 11):
And VS have recently kept it at a 744 instead of a 346 for the winter season

I noticed that. It was nice to see the welcome change.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):

Definitely, MIA-Italy was a market AA could have done very well in, especially MXP. Although if MAN-MIA would be full of cruise passengers wouldn't it be quite low-yielding?
 
Viscount724
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:17 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 7):
And there is no F on the AF 744. The plane is a junk heap inside.

I thought AF was upgrading the 744s they plan to keep (some are being retired) with PTVs in Y class etc? I think some are already in service. In any case, I would gladly take any AF 744 in preference to their cramped 10-abreast 777s any day.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:26 am

Quoting jonathanxxxx (Reply 12):
Definitely, MIA-Italy was a market AA could have done very well in, especially MXP. Although if MAN-MIA would be full of cruise passengers wouldn't it be quite low-yielding?

Miami-Italy is a market AA should have been in a decade ago. Just to Rome alone is over 175 PDEW, and that's annualized and doesn't take into account seasonality.

MIAMAN would likely be filled with cruise passengers, just like many other flights from Miami. Airlines like cruise contracts because they help to guarantee revenue and the fares, while low, are still profitable when airlines make capacity agreements with cruise companies. Airlines don't enter into thes contracts to lose money.
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zhiao
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:44 am

What is the Finnish-Mia market like? I know an
airline pulled out a few years ago.
 
Reggaebird
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:24 pm

I think services from PRG and WAW to MIA might also be viable. Maybe one of the Middle Eastern mega-carriers will seek to exploit such markets.
 
airbazar
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
AF 744 are old and worn, its tome MIA got off the AF " old and worn" list too.

They may be old but in Y they are far more comfortable than the 10 abreast sardine can configuration of the 77W. I would take the 744 over the 77W any day since I can't afford anything other than Y  
Quoting reifel (Reply 8):
I always had the impression they do bad. From Germany TAP's ALL2MIA fare is the cheapest for Germany-Miami out there, and it's widely available. Why would they sell such cheap fares if they're doing good? I'm not talking about high season, where probably everyone does quite wel... Same with NYC btw...

Just because the fares are cheap from Germany it doesn't mean that they are cheap from everywhere else. They're certainly not cheap from LIS. And there is probably enough business traffic between LIS and MIA to support the route.
 
jfk777
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RE: The Future Of MIA-Europe?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:56 pm

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 16):
I think services from PRG and WAW to MIA might also be viable. Maybe one of the Middle Eastern mega-carriers will seek to exploit such markets.

Its only a matter of a year or two before Emirates comes to Miami. They have filled out their USA destinations all over the west coast, Texas and JFK, the only missing parts are Boston, Chicago and Miami.