olddominion727
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WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:16 am

I know everybody has been chattering and guessing, throwing around dates, timelines and facts, but has anyone heard anything legitimate as to if they are even flying to HI and if they are, when and what routes? I know lots of speculation from from LAS, PHX, OAK, SEA, RNO, SMF, SAN ,PDX since TZ yanked their routes ultimately when bankrupt. But it's going to take time to build their 738 stash (unless they use some FL equipment)...

Thanks for the info
 
hnl-jack
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:27 am

Personally, I believe twenty five flights a day is optimistic. I have no doubt there is a market for SW, but I suspect the level of competition, frequent flyer loyalists, etc will keep them from being huge in the market. LAS is a good example. The vast majority of traffic on the route originates in Hawaii which HA dominates with its frequent flyer program. It will be difficult for WN to crack that. Local HA customers are very loyal.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:38 am

I think WN has a lot of potential for HI flights, especially from those destinations that have excellent connection opportunities like LAS, OAK, LAX. Maybe others could include PHX, SJC and SAN.

Quoting HNL-Jack" class="quote" target="_blank">HNL-Jack (Reply 2):
Personally, I believe twenty five flights a day is optimistic. I have no doubt there is a market for SW, but I suspect the level of competition, frequent flyer loyalists, etc will keep them from being huge in the market. LAS is a good example. The vast majority of traffic on the route originates in Hawaii which HA dominates with its frequent flyer program. It will be difficult for WN to crack that. Local HA customers are very loyal.

I think it's all going to boil down to the right price. But I don't doubt WN will have an uphill battle with HA out LAS. As I said earlier, WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

HA isn't the only airline that flies LAS-Hawaii. Doesn't Omni International fly 757 with charters to and from HNL?
 
RamblinMan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:37 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

Connections which HA does not have. And I wouldn't be too worried about frequent flier loyalties either...the free baggage allowance alone will sell it to the tourists.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:02 am

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 4):
Connections which HA does not have. And I wouldn't be too worried about frequent flier loyalties either...the free baggage allowance alone will sell it to the tourists.

True. Southwest has plenty of loyal customers...so that would be icing on the cake for them.
 
Atlwest1
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:47 am

Couldnt the 737-700 make that route though as it has longer range legs then the 738, though the 800 is more economical?

[Edited 2012-01-25 20:28:12 by SA7700]
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:13 am

Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 7):
Couldnt the 737-700 make that route though as it has longer range legs then the 738, though the 800 is more economical?

Not really. First of all WN's 73Gs are not ETOPS planes. Secondly, Hawaii operates at 180-minute ETOPS requiring significant reserve fuel in case of a diversion. Long story short, the 73Gs reach their structural payload limits quicker than the 738s on long ETOPS flights (738s become tank limited). When reserve fuel is not necessary (long non-ETOPS flights) the lower fuel burn of the 73G vs. the 738 gives the G slightly more range overall.

Pilots/ops planners, please let me know if this is in the right ballpark concerning 73G/738 ETOPS and feel free to correct anything I messed up.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:47 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

Perhaps, save for the LAX-HNL market. I can see WN cleaning up there, stealing just enough share from HA/AA/UA/DL to fill 2x daily 738s. I can't see them doing more than that though, unless they start believing in redeyes, and that seems to be something they avoid like the plague.
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usflyguy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:47 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 9):

Hawaii will bring redeyes from the islands to the mainland.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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Hypoxik
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:37 am

AQ had an easier time with the 73G.

ATA sometimes struggled with their 738's.

I commuted on both for a while between the West Coast and PHOG (OGG).

P.S. CAL never uses the 800's. They use 900ERs.
California Native. KIWA, PHOG, KEWR, KIAH, KLAX, KIAH, KEWR, KORD, KIAD, KORD, KSFO, KLAX
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:15 pm

Quoting Hypoxik (Reply 12):

P.S. CAL never uses the 800's. They use 900ERs.

739ERs are only in the summer. 738s are used the rest of the year. Positive on this
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
gen2stew
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:34 pm

Like another LCC I think WN is being overly optimistc re: ETOPS cert. in such a short time span. Also, I thought that not all 800's would be for over water flying i.e. MDW-LGA and other slot restricted fields. On the demand side of HI, yes people WANT to go but few seem to PAY; most use miles, points, etc... to pay for air,hotel, and car. In preium cabins on UA/AA there is a very diluted lower quality service compared to similar length flights over the Atlantic not to mention BOB in Y; that certianly points to lower yeilds in the cabins. Another point: the carriers that fly 757's and bigger can at least take cargo wich usually pays better than pax, will WN be able to take cargo?
I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:08 pm

Quoting GEN2STEW (Reply 17):
On the demand side of HI, yes people WANT to go but few seem to PAY; most use miles, points, etc... to pay for air,hotel, and car. In preium cabins on UA/AA there is a very diluted lower quality service compared to similar length flights over the Atlantic not to mention BOB in Y; that certianly points to lower yeilds in the cabins. Another point: the carriers that fly 757's and bigger can at least take cargo wich usually pays better than pax, will WN be able to take cargo?

Current capacity to Hawaii from the mainland is constraining demand and allowing for better revenue management. It's difficult to snag the cheaper awards to Hawaii since there is almost unlimited demand at those award levels. Premium cabins don't matter much to Hawaii...why do you think HA and UA, the two largest carriers to the mainland, have domestic FC seats in the premium cabin? Hawaii makes money in coach if at all.

Regarding widebody vs. narrowbody to Hawaii, NBs work since they have significantly fewer seats that can be revenue managed higher. Plus, seat costs for an airline like AS are likely very similar to the WBs and since fewer total seats need to be filled, the NBs can be filled at a higher average yield than the WBs. Cargo helps for WBs, but it's not an immense profitability driver once carrying cost and associated handling fees are deducted (Hawaii China where cargo is gigantic). Outside of HA and UA which operate well defined hubs and have aircraft with the correct LOPAs for Hawaii demand, nearly all westcoast-Hawaii frequency operates on NBs, so it must be working...
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
DFWHeavy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:00 pm

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know on average how much cargo the CO 738 and 739ER can take from the West Coast to Hawaii?
Christopher W Slovacek
 
wnflyguy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:04 pm

From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable. WN learned from ATA that PHX
and LAS only work with 757's and not 737-800 and WN will not be getting any time soon. Wnfg
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
jetsetter629
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:32 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 20):
From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable. WN learned from ATA that PHX
and LAS only work with 757's and not 737-800 and WN will not be getting any time soon.

I agree with this, but you limit the amount of connecting cities if you focus on OAK and LAX. With WN cutting transcontinental routes a few years ago, you would need to double connect if you are coming from a city east of the Mississippi River. PHX and LAS give you advantage of connections to: PHL, BOS, RDU, BDL, etc. Plus it also opens up the smaller Midwest markets not served out of OAK and LAX like OKC, TUL, OMA, IND, etc.

[Edited 2012-01-20 08:41:06]
 
DFWHeavy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:40 pm

This is a hypothetical example.

What if WN sent 3 flights a day from LAX-HNL, but only had 2 flights return to LAX, while the 3rd would fly HNL-LAS/PHX?

Flying eastbound, there shouldn't be any payload/weight restriction problems. That means coming back, passengers would have the option of either connecting in LA or making a likely one stop connection to the many other destinations via LAS or PHX.

Why wouldn't something like this work?
Christopher W Slovacek
 
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aloha73g
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 20):
From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable.

Good call on their part. AQ had trouble with HNL-LAS nonstop on a 73G. The ETOPS requirements on such a long route are killer. While it was operating I regularly heard AQ pilots saying they shouldn't be trying to fly a 737 on the route. AQ only flew it nonstop for a short period of time & then returned to 1-stop service via OAK and/or SNA.

WN should (and I think will) stick to Bay Area and Southern California routes. SJC, OAK, SFO, SMF, LAX, ONT, BUR & SAN should provide more than enough O&D and connections for them to work up to an AS sized operation in a few years.

-Aloha!
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777STL
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:00 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 15):
739ERs are only in the summer. 738s are used the rest of the year. Positive on this

I agree. I know I've personally seen CO 738s at HNL before.
PHX based
 
travelin man
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:09 pm

Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought WN was basically "at capacity" at LAX in T1. So, in order to support Hawaii flights from LAX, wouldn't they have to cut some flights to/from other destinations? Or would they think about utilizing the AirTran space in T3?
 
wnflyguy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:21 pm

I'm sure you will see a flight depart mid day in BWI and go BWI-LAX-HNL(red eye)-LAX-BWI which would cover connection at LAX and BWI ...wnfg  
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
Bluewave 707
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:22 pm

Would be nice to see WN do an ONT-HNL run ... I'm sure there will be a demand for that, especially with the 60-90 minute drive from the Inland Empire to LAX. An SNA-HNL run should give good competition to UA.

Just the fact that WN and G4 are entering the Hawai‘i market, is a welcome boost to the economy here.
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hiflyeras
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:07 pm

Quoting Bluewave 707 (Reply 28):
Would be nice to see WN do an ONT-HNL run ... I'm sure there will be a demand for that

If there was a market out of ONT to Hawaii then AS would already be flying it. ONT is a deadzone. If WN can feed it with connecting pax then it might fly but that would be the only way it would be practical AND profitable. I see WN flying out of OAK, LAX, PHX and SAN to Hawaii.
 
usflyguy
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:18 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):

I'd agree with those along with SJC, SNA and possibly even SMF.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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aloha73g
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:48 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
I see WN flying out of OAK, LAX, PHX and SAN to Hawaii.

I don't think PHX will happen for the reason as LAS...its just a little too far to consistently fly a fully loaded 737 under ETOPS. I think this will be a California exclusive operation, with SEA & PDX more likely than LAS or PHX.

SNA will not be happening on a 738. They would need a 73G-ETOPS which according to WN is not happening.

-Aloha!
Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:17 pm

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 31):
Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
I see WN flying out of OAK, LAX, PHX and SAN to Hawaii.

I don't think PHX will happen for the reason as LAS...its just a little too far to consistently fly a fully loaded 737 under ETOPS. I think this will be a California exclusive operation, with SEA & PDX more likely than LAS or PHX.

SNA will not be happening on a 738. They would need a 73G-ETOPS which according to WN is not happening.

-Aloha!

Agreed. I think all westcoast WN stations are fair game aside from those with operational issues (SNA and BUR). Don't sell SMF and SJC short either. HA still does very well out of both to HNL.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:27 pm

It will be interesting to see which cities they go up against AS to Hawaii. I think the inaugurals will be out of OAK and LAX...with maybe SJC, SMF and SAN later. SNA is definitely a no-go with the 738. BUR I think operationally would work with the 738 and WN has a great customer base there. I just have to wonder why AS hasn't done it...I'm sure they've run the numbers.
 
SurfandSnow
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:42 am

Unless WN's ETOPS certification process is drastically prolonged (a la G4), I doubt we'll see WN take Hawaii by storm overnight. They will only be able to add flights/stations incrementally as the 738s arrive. I think G4's issue was a complete lack of experience not just with ETOPS but also the 757 type they want to use for the flights. The Feds probably wanted to see them get comfortable with operating the new fleet type on regular overland missions first. WN has decades of experience with the 737 and the new 738s will probably be all but identical to the existing 733/735/73G fleet. G4's troubles shouldn't lead folks to believe that WN will suffer the same fate.

I doubt the Hawaiian stations will each have to support the traditional minimum flight level of 8 daily flights (if so, then KOA and certainly LIH won't be happening anytime soon). The following are potential gateways to Hawaii, in order from most to least likely:

1) OAK: As it stands today, the only crew base within comfortable 738 range of Hawaii. A longstanding major WN presence/tremendous local loyalty combined with excellent connectivity to the Northwest and SoCal means that flights to Hawaii will undoubtedly do well from here. The Bay Area is a huge, wealthy market with seemingly insatiable demand for Hawaii.

2) LAX: Heavily rumored to be getting a new crew base, largely due to the staffing needs of new Hawaiian flights. A longstanding major WN presence/tremendous local loyalty combined with excellent connectivity to NorCal, the Southwest, Rockies, Texas, Midwest, and even the South and East Coast means that flights to Hawaii will undoubtedly do well from here. LA is a huge, wealthy market with seemingly insatiable demand for Hawaii.

3) SAN: WN is by far the largest carrier here, and Hawaii has been relatively underserved (nonstop) for years. A longstanding major WN presence/tremendous local loyalty combined with excellent connectivity to NorCal, the Southwest, Rockies, Texas, Midwest, and even the likes of BNA and BWI means that flights to Hawaii will undoubtedly do well from here. San Diego is a major market with quite a bit of wealth that, like its West Coast peers, loves going to Hawaii.

4) SJC: WN's other traditional gateway to the Bay Area has done a great job supporting all kinds of new service to Hawaii. Not to mention the fact that WN is by far the largest carrier here too. A longstanding major WN presence/tremendous local loyalty combined with excellent connectivity to the Northwest and SoCal means that flights to Hawaii will undoubtedly do well from here. The Bay Area is a huge, wealthy market with seemingly insatiable demand for Hawaii.

5) SMF: WN serves over half of all pax using the airport of California's capital. Relatively new nonstop services to Hawaii have proven to be very popular. A longstanding major WN presence/tremendous local loyalty combined with excellent connectivity to the Northwest and SoCal means that flights to Hawaii would probably do very well from here. WN can pull people not just from Sacramento but vast portions of the Central Valley and northern areas of the state.

6) ONT: As with SMF, WN is responsible for transporting over 50% of all people to/from/through the airport. TZ found reason to start new ONT-HNL service while it was codesharing with WN to Hawaii. Although that was before this nasty recession ensued, I think it's safe to say that there is sufficient demand for nonstop Hawaiian service from an airport that serves approximately 4 million people. If anyone can do it WN can - they'd have the market all to themselves (assuming AS wouldn't be stupid enough to retaliate) and could help fill the plane with connections from LAS, PHX, DEN, MDW, even OAK, SJC, and SMF - all major markets to Hawaii in their own right.

7) SFO: WN is a small player in the SFO market and would likely focus on service from the other two Bay Area airports where it is dominant. However, UA enjoys a monopoly on all SFO-Hawaii routes other than SFO-HNL. I don't think AS is brave enough to challenge UA directly on such routes and VX won't have planes capable of serving Hawaii for several years to come. This is probably very unlikely, but I do see a good opportunity for WN here.

The following are NOT potential gateways to Hawaii:

BUR: Although WN dominates this airport like several others I suggested above, the short runways and surrounding mountainous terrain render nonstop service to Hawaii all but impossible. AQ couldn't even get the smaller 73G out to Hawaii reliably (often leaving lots of bags and pax behind), the larger/heavier 738 wouldn't stand a chance.

LAS: In spite of WN's massive presence and hub connectivity, it is asking too much of the 738 to fly out full, year-round, to Hawaii from LAS. That is, unless WN wants to block off a bunch of seats or make quite a few unscheduled fuel stops in California. In either case, WN will struggle to compete against a better-equipped HA that is already very well established in the LAS market. This could probably work with the 738MAX, which I assume will have increased range capabilities.

PDX: WN isn't even willing to challenge AS on its PDX-SoCal routes. No way are they going to bother battling AS (and also HA) on the long, thin routes to Hawaii from the small Portland market.

PHX: In spite of WN's massive presence and hub connectivity, it is asking too much of the 738 to fly out full, year-round, to Hawaii from PHX. That is, unless WN wants to block off a bunch of seats or make quite a few unscheduled fuel stops in California. In either case, WN will struggle to compete against better-equipped HA and US, which operate more capable aircraft and are already very well established on the routes from PHX to all four major Hawaiian airports. This could probably work with the 738MAX, which I assume will have increased range capabilities.

SEA: WN isn't even willing to challenge AS on its SEA-SoCal routes. No way are they going to bother battling AS (and also DL and HA) on the long routes to Hawaii from the Seattle market, where WN isn't all that big/strong to begin with.

SNA: The incredibly short runway renders 738 service to Hawaii unviable, since a big chunk of seats would have to go out empty. It is possible to profitably reach Hawaii with the smaller 73G, which is why CO came in with this type after AQ went bust. But if a 738 could do it, then AS would already be doing it by now  .
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wedgetail737
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sat Jan 21, 2012 5:17 am

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 35):
SEA: WN isn't even willing to challenge AS on its SEA-SoCal routes. No way are they going to bother battling AS (and also DL and HA) on the long routes to Hawaii from the Seattle market, where WN isn't all that big/strong to begin with.

WN is actually diminishing its presence at SEA. I think there is already enough capacity to Hawaii from SEA.
 
LV
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sat Jan 21, 2012 6:30 am

Quoting jetsetter629 (Reply 21):
I agree with this, but you limit the amount of connecting cities if you focus on OAK and LAX. With WN cutting transcontinental routes a few years ago, you would need to double connect if you are coming from a city east of the Mississippi River. PHX and LAS give you advantage of connections to: PHL, BOS, RDU, BDL, etc. Plus it also opens up the smaller Midwest markets not served out of OAK and LAX like OKC, TUL, OMA, IND, etc.

How about one stopping through LAX, SAN or OAK onward to LAS or PHX for connections. For example HNL-LAX-LAS and then connect onward to midwest or east coast destinations with service out of LAS but no nonstops to LAX/OAK/SAN?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:26 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
HA isn't the only airline that flies LAS-Hawaii. Doesn't Omni International fly 757 with charters to and from HNL?

An odd thing, but a lot of Hawaiians LOVE to go to Vegas and gamble. So HA flies an A330 there.
-Doc Lightning-

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SANFan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:53 am

I wanted to weigh in here on a few subjects near and dear to my heart -- WN, Hawaii, and of course, SAN.


"I, like some others, would expect the best chances for HI gateways from WN's w/c stations to be OAK, LAX, and SAN and perhaps SJC. (I would eliminate SMF and ONT due to high costs at both airports plus limited connection opportunities. BUR would fail for the latter reason....

All 3 of my list of Best of Class are similar in that they are in (or very near) the Top-10 overall stations of WN meaning lots of flights to a healthy number of destinations. Here's how some w/c stations stack up (according to "current" info from WN.com):
city.....# dep..# n/s dest..# gates....# emp
LAX......~109........21...........11..........491
OAK.....~103........19...........13........2,167
SAN.......~90........19...........11..........329
SJC.......~67.........13............7...........225
SEA......~26.........26............5...........172
(# daily departures varies from schedule-to-schedule so I used approximate more or less current levels.)
(I listed # of employees as a loose measure of the size of WN's op's in each city.)

I think the numbers say a lot about the potential of connection oportunities, the ability to handle more flights, and the overall size of the stations. I would expect that the O&D demand from each of the 3 top choices (OAK, LAX and SAN) would be large enough to balance with the connecting options to make flights successful.

LAX and SAN both have 11 gates -- I guess there are future expansion/growth possibilites at both airports for WN -- while LA is presently operating about 20 more daily departures. Therefore, SAN would perhaps have an easier time adding flights. All 3 airports serve approximately the same mainland destinations so connections would certainly be possible. And I agree with you, LV, in your post #38, that there would certainly be thru flights from all 3 gateways to all of WN's hubs, especially LAS and PHX. There are lots of flights in all of these local markets and I'm sure WN would have no hesitation adding more if needed.

There has been discussion about WN and redeyes (on another thread) but I just want to mention here that I feel very surely that WN will have to operate e/b redeyes from Hawaii to the w/c gateways OR start flying more mainland redeyes in order to get pax to the east coast.

For example, SAN has 2 daily flights to BWI; one is ~ 7-8am, the other is early afternoon. So either WN would need a redeye from HNL to SAN to catch the 7am flight to BWI, or they would have to depart HNL in the early afternoon, arrive SAN at night, and then add a redeye from SAN to BWI. Maybe they would elect to arrange redeye connections primarily through one of the w/c gateways (like LAX) and not get carried away with the concept!

Hope this helps provide some material for further discussion over the weekend.

bb

[Edited 2012-01-21 00:54:54]

[Edited 2012-01-21 01:02:33]

[Edited 2012-01-25 20:42:53 by SA7700]

[Edited 2012-01-25 20:44:25 by SA7700]
 
egcarter
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:10 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 36):
I think there is already enough capacity to Hawaii from SEA

Every time I get on a plane between SEA and HNL or OGG, it's packed (either direction).
 
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RWA380
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:42 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 39):
How would UA or AA route a pax going to a small city from HNL? ex: HNL-GEG, HNL-DSM, HNL-RSW, etc.. Would they double connect?

I don't expect you'd have to double connect HNL-SFO-GEG, HNL-DEN-DSM or HNL-DFW-DSM, HNL-ATL-RSW
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
aztrainer
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:19 pm

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 22):
This is a hypothetical example.

What if WN sent 3 flights a day from LAX-HNL, but only had 2 flights return to LAX, while the 3rd would fly HNL-LAS/PHX?


I could see
PHX-SAN/SNA-HNL/OGG/KON,
LAS-LAX/OAK/SFO-HNL/OGG/KON

I also wonder if WN will use SNA as they were a location Aloha used to fly

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 35):
PHX: In spite of WN's massive presence and hub connectivity, it is asking too much of the 738 to fly out full, year-round, to Hawaii from PHX. That is, unless WN wants to block off a bunch of seats or make quite a few unscheduled fuel stops in California. In either case, WN will struggle to compete against better-equipped HA and US, which operate more capable aircraft and are already very well established on the routes from PHX to all four major Hawaiian airports. This could probably work with the 738MAX, which I assume will have increased range capabilities.

Yes and no with competition. I love to fly WN, but I would not fly to Hawai'i on WN and would not fly on US either. When I go to Hawai'i, I fly only on HA due to the better service, quality and bigger plane. IMHO

My first trip to Hawai'i was on US/AW on teh 757, but we were weight restricted for the summer flight. This is where I do not and could not see WN fly out of PHX without a fuel stop on the cost. It would be interesting to see if they would do the origination airport at PHX and then have them fly to the cost as a secondary location/fuel stop top off the tanks and the plane then off to Hawai'i.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:39 pm

Quoting egcarter (Reply 44):
Every time I get on a plane between SEA and HNL or OGG, it's packed (either direction).

AS has revenue management down to a science...it's rare to see ANY AS flight that isn't full. This is true in particular to Hawaii....there might be a dozen seats still for sale a few days out but that plane is full on departure. I'm not talking with non-revs either...full-fare!

WN has always lagged everyone else in the industry in load factors. If they want to make money to Hawaii on a 738 they're going to have to step up their game.
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:16 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 48):
AS has revenue management down to a science...it's rare to see ANY AS flight that isn't full. This is true in particular to Hawaii....there might be a dozen seats still for sale a few days out but that plane is full on departure. I'm not talking with non-revs either...full-fare!

See every other US carrier domestically. AS is not unique in this area. I've analyzed this before, but statistically, once airlines run 80%+ systemwide load factors, they are spilling passengers and the number of spilled passengers increases exponentially for each % increase. With airlines running 87-88% full not just domestically, but systemwide, pretty much every flight is full and passengers have been spilled.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 48):
WN has always lagged everyone else in the industry in load factors. If they want to make money to Hawaii on a 738 they're going to have to step up their game.

Agreed, but WN didn't need to run super high loads to make money due to their utilization and low seat costs. There are many WN routes (particularly the LAS and MCO flights in general) that run very very high loads. Hawaii will be no different.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:20 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 49):
With airlines running 87-88% full not just domestically, but systemwide, pretty much every flight is full and passengers have been spilled.

I'm curious...'spilled' to who? Another airline? A different flight on the same airline?

Quoting Tdan (Reply 49):
Agreed, but WN didn't need to run super high loads to make money due to their utilization and low seat costs.

"Didn't" is the keyword here. WN doesn't have a cost advantage any longer....in fact their CEO recently stated that their cost issue needed to be addressed if they were going to continue their success.

http://crankyflier.com/2011/12/06/so...-a-sobering-note-focuses-on-costs/
 
Tdan
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:33 am

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 50):
I'm curious...'spilled' to who? Another airline? A different flight on the same airline?

Another airline or the passengers simply did not travel

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 50):
"Didn't" is the keyword here.

   You should see WN's loads steadily increase this year
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
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RE: WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:13 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 49):
statistically, once airlines run 80%+ systemwide load factors, they are spilling passengers

The spill point varies from carrier to carrier, however as a general point anything north of 85% systemwide is a "full" operation.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

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