flood
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A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:39 am

Thought I'd post a state-of-the-NEO thread after Airbus updated the books during the press conference, and as we begin an exciting new year in the narrowbody race.

Orders: Current through Jan. 20, 2012:



VX's 30 NEOs were booked in 2010, resulting in 1226 NEOs being firmed in 2011.

Any guesses as to the unidentified 35? I suppose it's possible they account for a previous MOU, ie Avianca or Alafco increasing and firming their order but hope to see a new customer behind it. With the Singapore air show just around the corner (Feb.14-29), perhaps an Asian airline? MH would make an interesting candidate should they choose to defect in the narrowbody segment and replace their 35 aging 737 classics (despite operating NGs, yet with only 1 delivery remaining, per airfleets). They currently operate a mixed A/B widebody fleet.

NEO vs MAX: As there has been quite of bit of discussion on the "fastest selling airliner", I decided to plot some numbers to compare both programs' progression of firm orders over time.



Data is based on the NEO's 12/1/2010 launch and the MAX launching on 7/20/2011 - in conjunction with the AA order. By this metric, technically the MAX is currently in the lead with the firmed Southwest order - as we're only at day 184  

For reference, the Southwest order came after 146 days in MAX's life. On day 147 in the NEO's life, ILFC firmed their order for 100 aircraft. It will be interesting to plot the progression over time through 2012 as Boeing begins firming their commitments. The dashed lines represent their respective, current order ceilings (firm+commitments). Boeing is said to have accumulated 1000+ commitments to date.

Pricing: With Airbus' prices increases, the NEO now commands the following premium -

A319NEO: +8.1 million USD
A320NEO: +8.4 "
A321NEO: +9.7 "

Trivia: As tweeted by David KM of Flight Global on Jan. 17th - "A320neo sharklets were nearly called 'eaglets' because, I'm told, a fairly senior Airbus exec doesn't like sharks."

Eaglets!   
Thank goodness someone came to his senses.

OEO but worth a mention: To celebrate the production of their 5,000th A320, Airbus released a nice little video today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9Sh7pHH9rQ&hd=1

  
 
SASMD82
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:21 am

Great overview! Certainly one of the most succesful launches ever. What will be the next order?
Thanks for posting man!  
 
Daysleeper
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:51 pm

Does the graph just show firm orders or is it firm plus MOU?

I think its great either way and provides a very fair comparison, thanks for taking the time to make it  
 
JerseyFlyer
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:21 pm

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
Any guesses as to the unidentified 35?

IAG?

BA's LGW 737s are due for replacement, and IB will have some older 320 - series also.
 
kl911
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:43 pm

I just figured out that AF is missing. Didnt they order the NEO? So its only two European companies ordering the NEO, LH and SAS. Guess that wont make it easy to go and fly on one.
 
chiad
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:43 pm

Awesome work flood.!!
  

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 2):
Does the graph just show firm orders or is it firm plus MOU?

The graph shows firm only.
But the doted line includes MOUs.
 
astuteman
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:47 pm

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
Thought I'd post a state-of-the-NEO thread

This is a really solid piece of work - many thanks for taking the time to do this on our behalf.

The NEO could well be one of the finest bits of decision-making that Airbus have ever done, IMO. Time will tell, I guess  

Rgds
 
FRNT787
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 6:32 pm

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
Thought I'd post a state-of-the-NEO thread after Airbus updated the books during the press conference, and as we begin an exciting new year in the narrowbody race.

An excellent thread with clear graphs and charts. Very interesting, and im sure helpful to most of us here following this segment. When summer 2011 came around, I had a mighty hard time following the hourly announcements for the neo.

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
MH would make an interesting candidate should they choose to defect in the narrowbody segment and replace their 35 aging 737 classics (despite operating NGs, yet with only 1 delivery remaining, per airfleets).

It would indeed be an interesting switch, however with their changing strategy, especially involving Air Asia, I dont see them ordering any additional narrowbodies for awhile.

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
NEO vs MAX: As there has been quite of bit of discussion on the "fastest selling airliner", I decided to plot some numbers to compare both programs' progression of firm orders over time.

I loved this. Should make interesting comparisons when in a few months time, both manufacturers are making the claim.  
Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
The NEO could well be one of the finest bits of decision-making that Airbus have ever done, IMO. Time will tell, I guess  

Totally agree on that. Airbus did a swell job convincing the airlines they could not wait for a new single aisle aircraft that may have been a bit better, but certainly a good bit later. This in turn, IMO, forced the airlines and thus Boeing's hand on the MAX.
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
RubberJungle
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:26 pm

Quoting flood (Thread starter):
Any guesses as to the unidentified 35?

If you look carefully, Airbus seems to have accidentally given away the identity of the customer...
 
chiad
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:03 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 8):
If you look carefully, Airbus seems to have accidentally given away the identity of the customer...

Huh?
  

Please tell me .... I am kind of slow!
 
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rotating14
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:03 am

I don't believe AF ordered the NEO, does somebody have any info on when Lufthansa's NEOS were ordered??
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:31 am

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 3):
IAG? BA's LGW 737s are due for replacement, and IB will have some older 320 - series also.

A solid candidate... they also have only one A320 left awaiting delivery.

Quoting kl911 (Reply 4):
I just figured out that AF is missing. Didnt they order the NEO? So its only two European companies ordering the NEO, LH and SAS. Guess that wont make it easy to go and fly on one.

Their widebody order should be firmed soon, but despite AF confirming their interest in the NEO some nine months ago, they have yet to commit (unless they're the unidentified customer, that is):

Quoting Chiad (Reply 5):
The graph shows firm only.
But the doted line includes MOUs.

Correct, thanks  
Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
The NEO could well be one of the finest bits of decision-making that Airbus have ever done, IMO.

The gift that keeps on giving. It's quite remarkable, really... I had the impression sales had tapered off a little over the past six months or so, yet the chart doesn't reflect such.

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 8):
If you look carefully, Airbus seems to have accidentally given away the identity of the customer...

I took another look at the slides and orders spreadsheets but haven't seen anything, other than their worldwide order spreadsheet suggesting the order is likely to consist of A320s and A321s. Maybe you could point me in the right direction  
Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 7):
When summer 2011 came around, I had a mighty hard time following the hourly announcements for the neo.

I think everyone did   I recall seeing various figures in the media throughout the year and, more often than not, there was no agreement amongst them.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 7):
I loved this. Should make interesting comparisons when in a few months time, both manufacturers are making the claim.

Thanks. It's interesting to note that while Boeing today claims some 1000+ orders and commitments for the MAX, Airbus had also bagged 1019 orders and commitments at the time in the NEO's life - but a considerable number were firm orders at that point.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 10):
I don't believe AF ordered the NEO, does somebody have any info on when Lufthansa's NEOS were ordered??

The order was firmed on 7/27/11 (238 days after launch)
http://www.airbus.com/no_cache/newse...chases-30-a320neo-family-aircraft/
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:20 am

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 8):

Ah, I see they've included it in their NEO order table. ALAFCO has indeed increased and firmed their order for 35 NEOs.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/co...?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=19650

They previously ordered 50, bringing their total order to 85  
 
chiad
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:16 am

Quoting flood (Reply 12):
Ah, I see they've included it in their NEO order table. ALAFCO has indeed increased and firmed their order for 35 NEOs.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/co...?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=19650

They previously ordered 50, bringing their total order to 85  

Aaaaaaah
 
Thanks both of you!
 
f4f3a
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:41 am

Very interesting info indeed. As for a new order I would expect U2 to
Order soon maybe 100+ a320 wouldn't be surprised if some were 321
and existing orders converted to shark lets
 
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zkojq
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:55 am

Very nice table and graph, flood.
Is anyone able to detail the breakdown in marketshare between the engine manufacturers on the A320NEO?
First to fly the 787-9 with Air New Zealand and ZK-NZE (2014-10-09, NZ103)
 
chiad
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:18 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 14):
Very interesting info indeed. As for a new order I would expect U2 to
Order soon maybe 100+ a320 wouldn't be surprised if some were 321
and existing orders converted to shark lets

I have been waiting for this order to come.
IMO a NEO order from Easyjet is as certain as the MAX order from Southwest.
Also the 100? forcast seems likely.

I wonder how many NEO slots Airbus has saved between 2015 and 2018 for strategic customer.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:43 pm

Question: has Airbus stated how many A320NEO Family planes will use the CFM International LEAP-X engine and how many will use the Pratt & Whitney PW112xG engines?
 
RubberJungle
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:34 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 17):
Question: has Airbus stated how many A320NEO Family planes will use the CFM International LEAP-X engine and how many will use the Pratt & Whitney PW112xG engines?

465 with CFM
410 with PW
381 undecided
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:51 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 18):

To add the breakdown per wiki, which looks to be missing one or two orders:

CFM: AirAsia, Garuda, GECAS, SAS, Virgin America, ILFC
P&W: ALAFCO, CIT, IndiGo, JetBlue, Lufthansa, Qatar, ILFC

ILFC split their 100 NEOs 60 PW / 40 CFM.
The remaining NEOs come with a set of oars.

I lost track of the engines some time ago but will update and include them in the future.
 
PezySPU
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:27 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 14):
As for a new order I would expect U2 to
Order soon maybe 100+ a320 wouldn't be surprised if some were 321
and existing orders converted to shark lets

U2 now operate mostly high-density A319s and just a few dozens of A320s.  
 
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teme82
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:55 pm

Hey where are the AY's NEO order? Are they counted at ILFC's orders?
Flying high and low
 
U2380
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:33 pm

Quoting PezySPU (Reply 20):
U2 now operate mostly high-density A319s and just a few dozens of A320s

It looks like any future order will be for the A320 (sized) aircraft. I believe they evaluated both the A320 and A321 when they inherited a few of each after the GB Airways take over. They dumped the A321's and ordered more A320's.

Hopefully we'll see some A320NEO's go to U2. Although they'll have to go through Stelios first!
 
RubberJungle
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:06 pm

Quoting teme82 (Reply 21):
Hey where are the AY's NEO order? Are they counted at ILFC's orders?

Finnair didn't order the Neo. It ordered A321s with sharklet wing-tips, but not the re-engined airframe.
 
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teme82
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:14 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 23):
Finnair didn't order the Neo. It ordered A321s with sharklet wing-tips, but not the re-engined airframe.

I see perhaps I'll try to make CEO Vehviläinen to change the plans  
Flying high and low
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:47 am

Quoting teme82 (Reply 24):
I see perhaps I'll try to make CEO Vehviläinen to change the plans

Did you dial the wrong number?  

Update with Norwegian's MoU and to include the engines:



Note CIT has also split their engine order and they still hold options on either engine to adapt and firm remaining engines as necessary.

Airbus has sold (firm) 2.99 NEO on average every day, since launch. Sorry, had I posted this little factoid two days ago it would have been a nice 3.00.

With the Norwegian MoU, Airbus stands to gain access to an all-Boeing operator and per Boeing's press release, the Norwegian order was already included in their previously announced 1000+ commitments to date:
"With the Norwegian order, the 737 MAX has orders and commitments for more than 1,000 airplanes from 15 customers"
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2111
 
sirtoby
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:11 am

Quoting flood (Reply 19):
I lost track of the engines some time ago but will update and include them in the future.

A good summary of all orders with engine choices can be also found on the this side:

http://aeroturbopower.blogspot.com/p/a320neo-vs-b737re.html
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:32 am

Quoting sirtoby (Reply 26):

Thanks, a good source for me to compare my numbers. I don't care to scroll around in both axis in such a little window but I do like their orders prior to EIS chart:

http://aeroturbopower.blogspot.com/p/a320neo-statistics.html
 
Eagleboy
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:39 am

So over 1250 firm orders. Last year the official line was that 'Airbus........ will raise the production rate of its A320 family to 42 aircraft per month beginning in the fourth quarter 2012.'

That is still almost 3 years of backlog on the NEO alone. Add in the options and you get another 2 years.

For any airline considering the NEO the waiting list is getting longer.
 
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breiz
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 10):
I don't believe AF ordered the NEO


...and you were right. Alexandre de Juniac, AF President has confirmed today that AF will not order any NEO due to the young age of the medium-haul fleet.
An order of only 10 was considered but cancelled due to the cost reduction plan being set-up.
 
mffoda
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:37 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
Update with Norwegian's MoU and to include the engines:

You could update Norwegian's 737-8Max engine selection as they only have one choice there...  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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teme82
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:04 am

Quoting flood (Reply 25):
Did you dial the wrong number?

Nope... But there is certain deals about corporate world that I can't comment   It's so nice to be shareholder 
Flying high and low
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:44 am

Quoting breiz (Reply 29):
AF President has confirmed today that AF will not order any NEO due to the young age of the medium-haul fleet.

Thanks for the info. Back in April it seemed an order was all but certain.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 30):
You could update Norwegian's 737-8Max engine selection as they only have one choice there...

Well, they're keeping their options open:

Initial neos will use the geared turbofan made by United Technologies Corp. (UTX)’s Pratt & Whitney, since the engine is the only one available for early deliveries, with the Leap-X an option later, Kjos said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ces-orders-with-boeing-airbus.html
 
mffoda
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting flood (Reply 32):
Quoting mffoda (Reply 30):
You could update Norwegian's 737-8Max engine selection as they only have one choice there...

Well, they're keeping their options open:

Initial neos will use the geared turbofan made by United Technologies Corp. (UTX)’s Pratt & Whitney, since the engine is the only one available for early deliveries, with the Leap-X an option later, Kjos said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0....html

What! I'm talking of the 737-8Max's... There will be no discussions regarding engine options.      
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:05 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 33):
What! I'm talking of the 737-8Max's... There will be no discussions regarding engine options.

Sorry, as the chart you were referring to only contains engines for the NEO, your mention of the MAX went completely over my head. Yes, breaking down engine orders for MAX is a little easier  
 
mffoda
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:58 am

Quoting flood (Reply 34):
Sorry, as the chart you were referring to only contains engines for the NEO, your mention of the MAX went completely over my head. Yes, breaking down engine orders for MAX is a little easier  

I know... I was having a bit of fun. Actually though... It might look good to see them side by side... if you are interested in expanding your chart? (It's a very pretty chart!) 
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 4:50 am

I've been keeping track of the MAX in the same format, albeit seperately. Here they are combined:



CFM count for MAX will be updated as the aircraft are firmed.
 
chiad
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:53 am

Quoting flood (Reply 36):
I've been keeping track of the MAX in the same format, albeit seperately. Here they are combined:

Thank you so much for these charts flood!
  
 
Hamlet69
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:06 pm

Flood,

Absolutely fantastic! My databases are similar, but not nearly so eye-pleasing.

Can I ask what program you're using?


Keep it up!

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:28 pm

Great info presented so clearly.
 
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EPA001
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 38):
Flood,

Absolutely fantastic!

   Indeed fantastic work Flood!   Thanks for all your efforts.
 
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EPA001
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Thu Jan 26, 2012 8:07 pm

Just received news that the Avianca MoU for 33 NEO's has been firmed up. They also firmed up the order for 18 regular A320-series aircraft.  .

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/new...or-51-eco-efficient-a320-aircraft/
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Fri Jan 27, 2012 3:11 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 38):
Can I ask what program you're using?

I used Excel. Just a screengrab for the above charts, whereas for the webpage I linked to below I exported the spreadsheet as an html file.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 41):
Just received news that the Avianca MoU for 33 NEO's has been firmed up.

I saw that too, good to finally see their order firmed up  

Well, I'm a little reluctant to *cough* flood the thread with graphics, particularly as they keep getting bigger. So I've simplified the latest update a bit and made a couple of corrections - namely added Transaero's 4 NEO options and reduced WN's MAX options to 60.



If anyone's interested, I uploaded the mothership here:
www.pdxlight.com/neomax.htm

I plan to keep it updated and will continue to post simplified versions around here as announcements are made. If anyone finds any discrepancies, please let me know. The page is ipad-friendly too.
 
travelavnut
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:39 am

Quoting flood (Reply 42):

Really great work Flood, thanks a lot!!

Would it be to much to ask to add a graph showing the development of market share of total firm orders over time? It's almost a given the MAX will see an order spree this year, I'm really curious how this will affect the market share between the two OEMs.
Live From Amsterdam!
 
mffoda
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Fri Jan 27, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 42):
reduced WN's MAX options to 60.

You have Americans options @ 60, not WN's....  
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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lightsaber
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Fri Jan 27, 2012 6:18 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 37):
Thank you so much for these charts flood!

Yes, thank you Flood.

In particular, the engine orders.

Now if only the C-series would sell well enough to warrant expanding the chart a little more.  

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
flood
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RE: A320NEO: Orders, Odds And Ends

Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:34 am

Quoting travelavnut (Reply 43):
Would it be to much to ask to add a graph showing the development of market share of total firm orders over time? It's almost a given the MAX will see an order spree this year, I'm really curious how this will affect the market share between the two OEMs.

Thanks for the suggestion. It would indeed make for an interesting visual comparison and I'll include it in the next update.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 44):
You have Americans options @ 60, not WN's...

   Brainfart, thanks... I meant AA's 60  
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
Now if only the C-series would sell well enough to warrant expanding the chart a little more.

Unfortunately it primarily competes in the lower end and including the data would muddy what's aimed at the A/B narrowbody battle. Otherwise I'd also be tempted to include the C-919 and MS-21. That said, a similar comparison between all narrowbody offerings would certainly be interesting  

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