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rotating14
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Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:28 pm

Hey guys and gals. Not sure if this has been discussed but I wanted to know if SW has plans to add ANC in the summer or perhaps keep it year-round. Could it give CO DE and AS some competition for passengers connecting through Seattle??
 
roseflyer
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:33 pm

ANC does not really fit the category of route that WN has. ANC is very seasonal, a limited market size, far away from any other city, and benefits from overwater equipped aircraft.

I don't expect ANC to be served by WN. SEA, OAK, LAX to ANC are a few routes that could work, but WN typically has 10 flights into a market that it serves. There isn't need for that much capacity there. Also it ties up a lot of airplanes since block times are about 5 hours from California which is longer than flights that WN typically operates.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
point2point
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:36 pm

I would think probably not, although only WN route planners would know for sure.

Too long, too thin, too few flights, too few WN stations that are near it, and already there is entrenched competition that would make this a station something that I don't think that WN would be interested in.....
 
AA737-823
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:25 pm

Greetings from ANC.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
ANC is very seasonal,

No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
There isn't need for that much capacity there.

I both agree and disagree. The fares here are OUTRAGEOUS. I can easily spend more on an ANC-ORD ticket than I can an ORD-LHR ticket. Additional capacity would bring fares down (happy consumers), even while still keeping things above WN's cost of operation.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
block times are about 5 hours from California

But only three from SEA, and a little longer for PDX...

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
entrenched competition that would make this a station something that I don't think that WN would be interested in.....

WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.
The only reason that AS is able to compete in the lower 48 is by ripping us off in AK, all the while earning the EAS subsidies. $600 from ANC to Nome?? PLUS the EAS cash.... sigh.
 
777STL
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:35 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

So that's why a lot of the airlines that do service ANC, service it on a seasonal basis? Additionally, AS is a big part of the problem being as entrenched as it is, as you've pointed out. AS would ensure that ANC would be a blood bath if another airline sought a large scale entrance into the market.
PHX based
 
southwest737500
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:39 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):

Couldn't they work with a flight from SEA To ANC

I personally think it won't happen
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seabosdca
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:40 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.

If it were that easy, someone would have done it already...
 
hatbutton
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:50 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.

This statement is laughable. Why has WN dropped out of routes like SEA-GEG? And why does WN not compete direct with AS on SEA-SoCal? Because AS is the only competitor that has so far proven tough for WN.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The only reason that AS is able to compete in the lower 48 is by ripping us off in AK

Also laughable. The state of Alaska represents 15% of AS's total ASMs. Do you really think those 15% are supporting a $400m+ per year pretax profit and 10% margins?

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
all the while earning the EAS subsidies. $600 from ANC to Nome?? PLUS the EAS cash.... sigh.

You're just making yourself look bad now. The only EAS routes in Alaska for AS are YAK/CDV, PSG/WRG and ADK. Not OME. OME is served by AS on their own. And have you ever checked the load factor on ANC-OME? It's amazing the fare is only $600. Supply and demand right there. WN would not be able to come in and charge fares less than that and somehow spark enough demand. 5,000 people live in OME. Come on.

And take a look at those EAS routes. How many people fly on them? Do you really think AS is making boat loads of money on them even with the subsidy?
 
UAL747
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:54 pm

This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737? There was a thread a long time ago about the longest 737 nonstops, and this route came up, but now I think UACO does it with a stop in SEA. Anyone have any info? I believe the flight was something around 7 or 8 hours.

NM: It looks like it was operated with the 73G nonstop at 7h14m nonstop from IAH circa 2005.

UAL

[Edited 2012-01-22 15:02:15]
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way
 
roseflyer
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:12 pm

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):


This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737? There was a thread a long time ago about the longest 737 nonstops, and this route came up, but now I think UACO does it with a stop in SEA. Anyone have any info? I believe the flight was something around 7 or 8 hours.

They seasonally operate IAH-ANC nonstop in addition to one stop via SEA. It is on a 738 and blocked around 7 hours.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):

No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

AS is able to maintain strong year round service to SEA, but that is it. There are about a half dozen other routes that maintain year round service to ANC. WN typically operates 10 flights a day from a station. ANC has only about 20 flights to the lower 48 year round. WN can't make that type of penetration.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):

I both agree and disagree. The fares here are OUTRAGEOUS. I can easily spend more on an ANC-ORD ticket than I can an ORD-LHR ticket. Additional capacity would bring fares down (happy consumers), even while still keeping things above WN's cost of operation.

Fares are certainly outrageous. AS tries to keep competition low and few airlines are able to sustain service. With the domination of AS, other airlines have struggled.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:17 pm

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):
This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737?

I've done the one-stop in a 738. But the stop wasn't very long -- just long enough to step off the plane, get a copy of the Post-Intelligencer from a kiosk, and then get back on the plane. We couldn't have been on the ground more than 30 minutes in either direction
 
SuperDash
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:18 pm

The reality is anything is possible. Southwest is getting 737-800W and 737-8 MAX. It's a great sized plane for Anchorage. While Southwest has traditionally run cities with 8-12 departures a day, AirTran has changed that. The fact they are considering International and Hawaii service says....Alaska is absolutely a possibility and it might be with just 3 or 4 flights per day. Southwest has changed a lot over the past few years. If they feel they can make money doing it, count on it that they will be there.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:24 pm

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):

I flew that route on a 753 (completely full) after this past new year, around 6 hours

I think that with the way AS operates a year round schedule WN could do the same. I strongly believe WN could give AS a run for their money. All WN would have to do is have a twice daily flight to FLL from SEA to compete with the sole daily flight AS operates.   
 
roseflyer
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):
I think that with the way AS operates a year round schedule WN could do the same. I strongly believe WN could give AS a run for their money. All WN would have to do is have a twice daily flight to FLL from SEA to compete with the sole daily flight AS operates.

WN has nothing compared to AS with connections. They have a reasonable sized operation from SEA, but don't even serve Southern California from SEA, which is the largest market from SEA.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
usflyguy
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:45 pm

WN could get a lot more connections for OAK-ANC and DEN-ANC than SEA-ANC.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:01 am

Gary Kelly has said several times that the -800 will allow WN to go the leisure places like Hawaii and Alaska. Google it and you'll find many times when he's said it.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
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RWA380
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:42 am

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 14):
WN could get a lot more connections for OAK-ANC and DEN-ANC than SEA-ANC

For sure, LAS or PHX would also give those good connections, I could see WN doing ANC & FAI, but with 3-4 flights.
WN would be stupid to try SEA-ANC, during the summer AS has 18 flights a day, and numerous other carriers offer additional or increased schedules as well. But I doubt WN would go into AK and set up a hub in ANC to go head to head with AS, WN would be the biggest loser there. Alaskans are loyal to AS, yes they don't have many choices, but AS just offers more than WN will ever offer.

[Edited 2012-01-22 17:43:35]
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wedgetail737
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:19 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
.
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 16):
Alaskans are loyal to AS, yes they don't have many choices, but AS just offers more than WN will ever offer.

Apparently, not all Alaskans are loyal to AS. I don't disagree with AA737-823 on competition, but I think you'll only find it between major points like SEA-ANC or SEA-FAI...not to outlying communities.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
Gary Kelly has said several times that the -800 will allow WN to go the leisure places like Hawaii and Alaska.

You don't need 737-800's to serve Alaska. The -700's can easily do the trip. Then even their -300 and -500's could do the job as well. Wien and Mark Air served SEA-ANC using 737-200's. WN could have served SEA-ANC back during the merger between Morris Air and WN. Oh yeah and Morris Air didn't put AS out of business either.
 
tsnamm
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:35 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 9):

They seasonally operate IAH-ANC nonstop in addition to one stop via SEA. It is on a 738 and blocked around 7 hours.

CO has done EWR/ANC as well for a few seasons...though not for the last year or 2...
 
UAL747
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:41 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 17):
You don't need 737-800's to serve Alaska. The -700's can easily do the trip.

I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

UAL
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:47 am

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 19):
I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

That's probably true. How much freight does WN move throughout their system? Probably much more than one would realize.

Gary Kelly's statement above is little misleading. Unlike Mainland-HI service, any WN airplane could fly to ANC.
 
UAL747
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:50 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):
How much freight does WN move throughout their system?

Not sure, though I'm sure quite a bit, but they can also carry more passengers, which would economically allow them to reduce the number of flights per day.
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way
 
usflyguy
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:51 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):

Cargo is a BIG part of SWA's business...

It could but not with the economics of an -800. The longer flights need the larger ac to lower the costs.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:55 am

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 19):
I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

Yes, that is what I (and Gary) meant. Thanks.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):
How much freight does WN move throughout their system?

TONS. $100,000,000 a year worth. LAX is the top station for cargo with 3 million pounds per month. The number 2 station moves 1 million pounds per month (MDW or LAS, I think). WN hauls about 20 million pounds per month.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
ANCsupercub
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:05 am

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 7):
Also laughable. The state of Alaska represents 15% of AS's total ASMs. Do you really think those 15% are supporting a $400m+ per year pretax profit and 10% margins?

While I do not believe that Alaska is subsiding their lower 48 fares, they use their monopoly to gouge Alaskans. It is "laughable" to suggest that their monopoly (and therefore prices) are not a very important part of their business. I challenge anyone to pick random dates and try to find more expensive fares out of Seattle (that are similar length) then ANC-SEA. I picked a few dates and cities at random and here is what I came up with:

Dates: 1/28/12 - 2/4/12 (all are Alaska fares and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route followed by cheapest RT fare: ANC-SEA $874, SEA-DFW $607, SEA-MCI $406, SEA-STL $546, SEA-ORD $434
Largest fare difference - $440

Dates: 3/17/12 - 3/24/12 (all flights flow on alaska and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route: ANC-SEA $785, SEA-DFW $332, SEA-MCI $325, SEA-STL $261, SEA-ORD $290, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $524

Dates: 4/7/12 - 4/14/12
Route: ANC-SEA $566, SEA-DFW $290, SEA- MCI $305, SEA-STL $239, SEA-ORD $320, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $560
Largest fare difference - $327

Dates: 5/5/12 - 5/19/12
Route: ANC-SEA $497, SEA-DFW $326, SEA- MCI $290, SEA-STL $261, SEA-ORD $321, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $236

Dates: 8/18/12 - 8/25/12 (all flights flow on alaska and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route: ANC-SEA $497, SEA-DFW $396, SEA-MCI $305, SEA-STL $390, SEA-ORD $391, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $192

I believe every route is longer than ANC-SEA. Barring DCA, every root is at least $100 more RT. The biggest difference is over 500 dollars. This is just ANC-SEA. It is a lot worse on other alaska routes. One might be able to make the argument that some of the prices on intra alaska are justified, but that doesn't explain ANC-SEA.

As an Alaskan I fly Alaska a lot (should hit 75k this year). They have offer an all around good product. However, they do rip us off.


http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airport...asp?pn=1&Airport=ANC&carrier=FACTS Just an interesting breakdown of ANC traffic. It said there were 698,000 passengers on ANC-SEA from Oct 2010 to September 2011. I would like to see the carrier % share on just flights to the lower 48. I do not know the criteria Southwest uses to choose their new routes, but there is demand.

[Edited 2012-01-23 03:10:30]
 
threeifbyair
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting ANCsupercub (Reply 24):
As an Alaskan I fly Alaska a lot (should hit 75k this year). They have offer an all around good product. However, they do rip us off.

AS is simply charging what the market will bear. Many people, you included, are apparently willing to pay the prevailing prices. I can usually fly SEA-MSP-XXX on DL much cheaper than the SEA-MSP alone. DL loyalists lament this constantly, but they love their DL status and pay up.

A new entrant at ANC would face "trench warfare" from AS - double miles promotions, $99 fares, etc. Most people will happily collect 2x AS miles on bargain tickets while the new entrant bleeds cash until it withdraws. The Gold/75k FFs love their free drinks, F upgrades, and worldwide mileage redemption options. WN doesn't offer any of that.

Remember, WN just bailed out of SEA-GEG. SEA-BOI is also gone. AS gets feed from both cities for its ANC flights.
 
cschleic
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:15 pm

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 7):
The state of Alaska represents 15% of AS's total ASMs.

That may be true, but it's probably more than 15% of revenue.

Other issues for WN and Anchorage...
* With the long distances, wouldn't it be difficult to support a meaningful number of flights without having overnight flights out of ANC? And WN doesn't do overnight flights.
* Isn't cargo a big portion of ANC business? Is that WN's niche, too?

Overall, doesn't seem to fit their model.
 
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RWA380
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting cschleic (Reply 26):
With the long distances, wouldn't it be difficult to support a meaningful number of flights without having overnight flights out of ANC? And WN doesn't do overnight flights

This is an issue already addressed in another thread. WN is going to have red-eye flights starting this year. It will start with those red-eye's already operated by FL during the transition ie...LAX-ATL, SEA-ATL, LAX-MKE etc.. And it will continue when the HI services are started. WN has stayed out of the red-eye game, but will not stay out of the fray any longer.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
hatbutton
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:03 pm

Quoting cschleic (Reply 26):
That may be true, but it's probably more than 15% of revenue.

Probably? Do you know for sure? Take a look at the load factors on all the intra-Alaska flights and anything that isn't ANC to the lower 48 and you will find that there are a lot of ASMs that go out without people in seats. The load factor the last year on any flight to and from Alaska or within Alaska was 72%. When you look at just intra-Alaska flying the load factor was 56%. Yet, the load factor on any flight to and from anyplace but Alaska for AS was 86%.

Alaskans also get free bags so there is money that isn't coming in the door from anyone who flies AS outside the state. So I don't necessarily think you can readily conclude that 15% of ASMs accounts for 15% or more of the revenue. Even cargo revenues in total are only worth 2% of AS's total revenue and not all of that cargo is just in the state of Alaska.
 
ANCsupercub
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:52 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 25):
AS is simply charging what the market will bear.

When there is a monopoly you cannot really to the market to set a fair price. As you mention later, competition will not enter the market because they know Alaska will drastically fight it. With no competition, they are able to charge exorbitant prices. The market is inhibited by an effective monopoly.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 25):
Many people, you included, are apparently willing to pay the prevailing prices

I really don't have much of a choice. Unfortunately I take a lot of quick trips that tend to leave in the morning. The two United flights to SEA leave at night.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 25):
A new entrant at ANC would face "trench warfare" from AS - double miles promotions, $99 fares, etc. Most people will happily collect 2x AS miles on bargain tickets while the new entrant bleeds cash until it withdraws. The Gold/75k FFs love their free drinks, F upgrades, and worldwide mileage redemption options.

If Southwest did enter I do not doubt that this would happen. This is how they are able to keep competition away.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 25):
Remember, WN just bailed out of SEA-GEG. SEA-BOI is also gone. AS gets feed from both cities for its ANC flights.

There are significantly more passengers that fly ANC-SEA than GEG-SEA or BOI-SEA. According to the website from my previous post ANC-SEA has 699,000, GEG-SEA has 455,000, and BOI-SEA has 196,000 passengers per year.

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 28):
Probably? Do you know for sure? Take a look at the load factors on all the intra-Alaska flights and anything that isn't ANC to the lower 48 and you will find that there are a lot of ASMs that go out without people in seats. The load factor the last year on any flight to and from Alaska or within Alaska was 72%. When you look at just intra-Alaska flying the load factor was 56%. Yet, the load factor on any flight to and from anyplace but Alaska for AS was 86%.

Alaskans also get free bags

Again that doesn't explain the prices on SEA-ANC (although I would assume that FAI-ANC flights would be fairly fully). Also, a $25 free bag doesn't mean much when I had to pay over $500 more than a similarly (or longer) length flight. Again I challenge anyone to find a similar flight more expensive out of SEA.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting ANCsupercub (Reply 24):

While I do not believe that Alaska is subsiding their lower 48 fares, they use their monopoly to gouge Alaskans. It is "laughable" to suggest that their monopoly (and therefore prices) are not a very important part of their business. I challenge anyone to pick random dates and try to find more expensive fares out of Seattle (that are similar length) then ANC-SEA. I picked a few dates and cities at random and here is what I came up with:

  

Its clearly obvious that AS can charge those prices because they can, but I think that WN could look into the loads that are flying to the major cruise ports and tourist spots and capitalize on that data by raising frequency. AS right now (as they have for a while) only operates a daily flight in and out of Miami. Leaving 10pm SEA time and arriving early 7AM in Miami. Why couldn't WN offer a mere 3 flights the same way just arriving in FLL??      
 
cschleic
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:40 pm

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 28):
Probably? Do you know for sure? Take a look at the load factors on all the intra-Alaska flights and anything that isn't ANC to the lower 48 and you will find that there are a lot of ASMs that go out without people in seats. The load factor the last year on any flight to and from Alaska or within Alaska was 72%. When you look at just intra-Alaska flying the load factor was 56%. Yet, the load factor on any flight to and from anyplace but Alaska for AS was 86%.

Ok, so that means SEA-ANC flights had very high load factors if the overall intra-Alaska and ANC - lower 48 combined isn't dragged down by the intra-Alaska alone factor of 56%. The company's 2010 10K indicates that SEA-ANC is their highest traffic route. One of their other busiest routes, SEA - LAS, has a high leisure factor and probably lower average fares. Unfortunately, they don't break out revenues by routes or region, which isn't surprising considering competitive reasons. Given the high niche factor in routes to, from and within Alaska, there's a good chance ASM and load factors don't tell the whole story. Bottom line...we don't have hard figures to know for sure. Perhaps someone could provide detail.
 
ScottB
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The fares here are OUTRAGEOUS. I can easily spend more on an ANC-ORD ticket than I can an ORD-LHR ticket. Additional capacity would bring fares down (happy consumers), even while still keeping things above WN's cost of operation.

The problem is that many people would simply book AS at the new, lower fares -- just as we've seen on routes like SEA-GEG and SEA-BOI. Sure, consumers would be happy, but the WN planes would be empty.

Quoting ANCsupercub (Reply 29):
I really don't have much of a choice. Unfortunately I take a lot of quick trips that tend to leave in the morning. The two United flights to SEA leave at night.

And too many people claim, "I don't have a choice because..."

Quoting ANCsupercub (Reply 24):
As an Alaskan I fly Alaska a lot (should hit 75k this year). They have offer an all around good product. However, they do rip us off.

The real question is whether or not you (and others in your situation) really would shift enough of your business to ANY new entrant, whether or not that was WN. The answer is probably "no."
 
sxf24
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:49 pm

When posters complain about the high cost of flying to, from and within Alaska, they often forget that the cost of operating in Alaska - particularly outside of ANC and FAI - is significantly higher. AS owns some of the terminal buildings and is responsible for providing more infrastructure than it does in the lower 48, resulting in a higher level of full-time employees. In addition, fuel and other supplies are more expensive in Alaska.

While I could foresee WN entering SEA-ANC, demand on every other route to, from and within Alaska is WAY to thin.
 
cschleic
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:51 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
The problem is that many people would simply book AS at the new, lower fares -- just as we've seen on routes like SEA-GEG and SEA-BOI. Sure, consumers would be happy, but the WN planes would be empty.
Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
The real question is whether or not you (and others in your situation) really would shift enough of your business to ANY new entrant, whether or not that was WN. The answer is probably "no."

WN is known for stimulating new business as well as lowering fares. If they entered Alaska, would they bring down fares? Probably yes. Would some AS customers switch? Yes. Would some AS customers stay with AS but at lower fares? Yes. Would WN attract some new business that didn't fly much or at all in the past, in this unique market, to the same degree they have in other markets? Maybe. It's just not black and white, as if everyone would switch or not. Too many other factors involved.
 
SurfandSnow
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:03 am

I think ANC is a possibility, but WN simply has bigger priorities - Hawaii, Mexico, the Caribbean. Alaska simply doesn't have the draw that those places do, and might come online after most major opportunities in those regions have been exhausted - as was the case with B6.

Plus, ANC is far more seasonal than any market WN currently serves. Let's see how they handle their new seasonal smaller markets like BDA, SJD, AUA, etc.

My guess is that WN, like most carriers, could probably only run a token ANC-SEA operation to keep a year-round presence. During the summer months, they could do nonstops to OAK, LAS, PHX, DEN, maybe even LAX, PDX, SJC, SMF, and SLC. They would face stiff competition from established incumbents like AS, UA, and yes, F9. WN isn't even willing to challenge AS on its SEA/PDX-SoCal routes - do you really think they want to jump into AS's namesake territory?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
roseflyer
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:16 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):
How much freight does WN move throughout their system? Probably much more than one would realize.

Southwest's percentage of revenue for freight is 1.1%. It's quite low, compared to other large US airlines like American, Delta or United which are in the 2-5% range, which makes sense since it only operates in the lower 48 compared to the other large US airlines.

Alaska Airlines has a much larger freight operation since air freight is so important in the state of Alaska and it contributes about 3.5% of revenue.

Freight is very important to the state of Alaska, but it goes beyond Anchorage and I'd expect the money to not be in ANC, but rather the communities served from ANC.

But in the end, freight does not make routes happen to major airports. It's passengers that justify routes. Freight is just an add on. Outside of small markets in Alaska, freight is not a deciding factor on whether a route is operated. It has to have the passenger numbers.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
ANCsupercub
Posts: 94
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RE: Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?

Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:42 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
The problem is that many people would simply book AS at the new, lower fares -- just as we've seen on routes like SEA-GEG and SEA-BOI. Sure, consumers would be happy, but the WN planes would be empty.

Agreed, that is why they have the monopoly. That being said there is more demand on ANC-SEA than then other routes and I would hazard a guess that lower fares would bring more passengers.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
And too many people claim, "I don't have a choice because..."

Because they have a monopoly I can't have a legitimate excuse as to why I have to fly with them? Unfortunately with the work I fly for, it doesn't make sense for me to leave on a midnight flight out of Anchorage. United offers two night flights that are cheaper, but not by enough to justify the time. There is no other choice. When I am able to, especially in the Summer, I fly with other carriers.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
The real question is whether or not you (and others in your situation) really would shift enough of your business to ANY new entrant, whether or not that was WN. The answer is probably "no."

While Southwest might not be entering the Anchorage market anytime soon, it would be interesting to see United up their market presence. The route supports 700,000 passengers per year at grossly inflated prices, it would be interesting to see if that number jumps with lower fares. There seems to be some potential there if one could overcome the giant that is Alaska Airlines.

I will give you an example of how bad the fares are. Last winter a friend of mine spent $200 more on an ANC-SEA flight (in coach) then they did on a Anchorage - Frankfurt flight on Condor that they took in the summer (that flight is 9 hours).

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