olddominion727
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Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:14 pm

If it is (which I suspect it is), are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?
 
Aither
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:25 pm

Actually many airlines are converting their 787-8 to the 787-9.
Never trust the obvious
 
sweair
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:32 pm

I would be more interested in the experience gathered over the years it has been flying about its systems. Was bleed less air a good idea or not. Old threads on this site has many say its a bad idea. I kind of like the idea of going electric.

How about the composite fuselage, any experience in this area?
 
Arniepie
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:33 pm

As it stands now, I don't think the currently delivered 787's are "as Boeing initially claimed it would be",
they are too heavy, engines aren't on spec and they lack promised range AFAIK.

but

As production moves forward I'm certain that it'll get closer too spec and eventually possibly even be better than
initially promised , knowing the history of former Boeing projects.

However

As for you second remark, I fail too see why suddenly all current A350 would cancel their orders and go for the
787 instead, nothing says it won't be , in time, equally good or maybe even better in some aspects than the 787.
Also I don't see how Boeing could even manage to double its output seeing how they are already struggling as it is.
[edit post]
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:25 am

It isn't now, but it will be...eventually. Jon is reporting that by aircraft 63, the aircraft will no longer require finished work...dare we hope...?

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ork-on-mid-60s-line-number-367370/

[Edited 2012-01-25 16:43:17]
What the...?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:43 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
It isn't now, but it will be...eventually.

And when it is perhaps some A350-800 customers might defect to the 787-8 and 787-9. But the A350-900 and, especially, the A350-1000 won't be under threat.
 
Cerecl
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:29 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

In terms of specs, not yet but hopefully it will be. In terms of how Boeing envisions 787 may change the face of aviation, the jury is still out. So far most of the 787s in operation are like super 767s. New routes operated by 787 tend to be between a superhub and a secondary hub.

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?

Unless 350XWB runs into trouble that is...787esque from now, I doubt this will be happen. 787 and 350XWB are designed for different missions. This is evident from the many orders from airlines that will eventually operate both types. As to the advantage of "a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists", firstly airlines have never shied away from ordering planes that do not yet exist; secondly there is very limited, if any, slots available for 787 before the mid-second half of this decade anyway; thirdly, A350XWB does exist, although obviously not yet in one piece.
 
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Polot
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:38 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 1):
Actually many airlines are converting their 787-8 to the 787-9.

Actually most have not (at least not yet).
 
AngMoh
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:57 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
If it is (which I suspect it is), are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?

Swapping now from a confirmed A350 slot to a 787 variant puts you from the middle of one long queue to the back of an even longer one. It makes no sense....
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:13 am

I don't believe it will ever be the miracle cure-all pill for airlines that Boeing has made out from the beginning it is.
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
delimit
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:37 am

I think even Boeing pulled back from their vision of the plane enabling point to point flying.

The 787 will accelerate what the 767 started (and doesn't get nearly enough credit for); fragmentation. It should do to the Pacific what the 767 did to the Atlantic.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:43 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 9):
don't believe it will ever be the miracle cure-all pill for airlines that Boeing has made out from the beginning

Aside from all the bells and whistles for us passengers, I think Boeing touted three main benefits from using the 787 series:
1. More fuel efficient than current aircraft in its size;
2. Less maintenance; and
3. Ability to open up and run profitably a number of secondary point-to-point routes (oh like say SAN to CDG perhaps??? Okay I'm just hoping upon hope there).

Even with its love handles, the 787 is still more fuel efficient than older models. We won't know about maintenance issues for awhile I suppose. Already some of the airlines are announcing point to point routes (JAL's NRT - BOS for instance)

So it seems to me that, yeah the plane will do what Boeing says it will do.

Being the eternal optimist that I am, I am hoping that the 787 becomes a frequent sight in San Diego and that a lot more international and exotic destinations open up for us long suffering folks down here at the bottom of the state!
 
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:45 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 10):
I think even Boeing pulled back from their vision of the plane enabling point to point flying.

How so?
 
ghifty
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:51 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 9):
I don't believe it will ever be the miracle cure-all pill for airlines that Boeing has made out from the beginning it is.

Cure-all pill? I don't recall Boeing ever calling it that.

They only said it would make it easier for *smaller* airlines to venture into international territories. It's basically 767 sized with a 777's range. It's supposedly easier to fill a 767 than a 777, and that's what the 787 originally aimed to do, create newer opportunities for smaller airlines (and allow for more routes at the larger ones), no?
Fly Delta Jets
 
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rotating14
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 4:14 am

I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that it (788) isn't up to spec NOW but look at the other Boeing lines as they progressed (Minus the delays and cost over-runs). The 777 started as just a larger and newer 767. Its now evolved into ALMOST the best selling widebody of all time. I say give it time to blossom and you'll see an awesome aircraft.   
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:29 pm

It's too early to say.
 
davidkunzVIE
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:34 pm

Considering that Boeing concentrated on marketing the 787 as a "newaircraft(.com)", I think they succeeded.

Seriously, though, the 788 will probably face the fate of the 342, the 77A and the A320-100 (albeit not as radically as the latter). It will be a step towards a mature and very capable airplane, but the current form will not be the most successful incarnation.
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airbazar
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:52 pm

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
If it is (which I suspect it is), are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?

Why would they do that when they can get A332's which are becoming just as capable as the 788, and they can get those a lot sooner and for less money?
 
YULWinterSkies
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:53 pm

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 6):
So far most of the 787s in operation are like super 767s.

Well, there is only a handful of 787 in operation with ANA, and they are in test phase with intra-Asia flights. Hardly their final mission.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 6):
New routes operated by 787 tend to be between a superhub and a secondary hub.

Yes, like that promised JL NRT-BOS route for instance.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 11):
Already some of the airlines are announcing point to point routes (JAL's NRT - BOS for instance)

Sorry to say, but this is a hub-to-hub route, and no more.
When I doubt... go running!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:21 pm

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 18):
Sorry to say, but this is a hub-to-hub route, and no more.

I wasn't aware BOS was a JL hub.  

Seriously, I imagine it is a OneWorld hub, but even there, it appears that it was not a "rich" enough hub to support performing the route with a 767 or 777. But evidently the 787 is efficient enough to support services.
 
mffoda
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting davidkunzVIE (Reply 16):
Seriously, though, the 788 will probably face the fate of the 342, the 77A and the A320-100 (albeit not as radically as the latter).

The 787-8 has to date 555 orders, and is still receiving orders for the type. (last order only 2 months ago)

The A/C you mentioned... 137 Total.

A320-100 = 21
A340-200 = 28
B777-200 = 88

That's greater than 400% more orders! And counting  

Hell, you could add the A345/6 and it would still be more than 200%. And in fact you could add the entire A340 program to the A320-100 and 77A totals and you would still be 69 frames short of the 787-8 orders...

Quoting davidkunzVIE (Reply 16):
It will be a step towards a mature and very capable airplane, but the current form will not be the most successful incarnation.

That is good news for the program, I would think? You sell more of your larger more expensive models... I can't see where that is a downside...
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
UALWN
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
But evidently the 787 is efficient enough to support services.

Evidently? Service hasn't started yet. What is "evident" is that JL thinks they can make the route work with a 787. But history is full of routes that airlines thought would work, and then didn't. I guess we will see after a year or two.
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davidkunzVIE
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 20):
The 787-8 has to date 555 orders, and is still receiving orders for the type. (last order only 2 months ago)

The A/C you mentioned... 137 Total.

True, but as was said before, some of these orders are likely to be converted to bigger models.

Quoting mffoda (Reply 20):
That is good news for the program, I would think? You sell more of your larger more expensive models... I can't see where that is a downside...

I never said it was!  
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airbazar
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Seriously, I imagine it is a OneWorld hub, but even there, it appears that it was not a "rich" enough hub to support performing the route with a 767 or 777. But evidently the 787 is efficient enough to support services.

BOS is not even a focus city for AA any longer, let alone a OW hub.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:37 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 21):
What is "evident" is that JL thinks they can make the route work with a 787.

It is also "evident" that JL didn't think they could make it work with a 767 or a 777, as they did not try service with either plane. So the 787 has given an airline the confidence to open up a new route - which is one of the goals for the program.   



Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
BOS is not even a focus city for AA any longer, let alone a OW hub.

Again, then it appears that the 787 has opened up a new hub-to-point route, which is one of the goals of the program.   
 
UALWN
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:39 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
It is also "evident" that JL didn't think they could make it work with a 767 or a 777, as they did not try service with either plane. So the 787 has given an airline the confidence to open up a new route

I fully agree.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
which is one of the goals for the program.

Well, I would imagine the real goal of the program is to allow the operation to be profitable...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Again, then it appears that the 787 has opened up a new hub-to-point route, which is one of the goals of the program.

Hub-to-point routes are the vast majority of routes operated with 757/767/777/744/330/340 and even 380. Nothing new there. I always thought that the real goal of the 787 was to open point-to-point routes.
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FlyingAY
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:04 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
BOS is not even a focus city for AA any longer, let alone a OW hub.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Again, then it appears that the 787 has opened up a new hub-to-point route, which is one of the goals of the program.

Seriously though, you can't only look at the plane type as the only reason for a new route. AY just opened a new route to CKG from HEL with an A330 and no-one is drawing the conclusion that an A330 has enabled new point-to-point routes... There are many other reasons than just a new plane type that could lead to a new route to be opened: development of the cities in question, the market situation, other carriers actions and routes, etc. etc.
 
airbazar
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Fri Jan 27, 2012 3:42 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 25):
Hub-to-point routes are the vast majority of routes operated with 757/767/777/744/330/340 and even 380. Nothing new there. I always thought that the real goal of the 787 was to open point-to-point routes.

That was part of Boeing's marketing but we all know that that is not really how network carriers operate. The vast majority of long haul flights regardless of plane size and capability, have at least 1 hub at either end. And that is not about to change with the 787 or any other plane.
 
hnl-jack
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 2:30 am

Perhaps, there is even a bigger question concerning the 787 and it's success. There seems to be a completely different strategy particularly noticeable between U.S. international airlines and non-based U.S. airlines. The U.S. domestic market has evolved over the years from one that featured 747's, DC-10's and L 1011's. Service and comfort were king, too today where frequency and narrow body aircraft seem to rule. It appears that the U.S. carriers are applying their domestic strategy of more markets, more frequency and less in-flight service to international routes while many of their worldly competitors are going to VLA's between major international hubs. I guess what I'm attempting to say is, while all these new aircraft (A-380, B-748, B-787 & A-350) look like they will be around a long time, but their ultimate success may very well depend on world travel preferences such as small aircraft = convenience or VLA = inflight experience.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:31 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
It isn't now, but it will be...eventually. Jon is reporting that by aircraft 63, the aircraft will no longer require finished work...dare we hope...?

During th earnings call on the 25th it was said that
1. About 70-85 787 and 747-8 will be delivered in 2012
2. Two thirds of the 787 deliveries in 2012 will be made out of rework
3. From a line number in the mid-60s onwards no rework is required
4. Production rate is planned to increase from 2,5 per month to 3,5 in summer to 5 by the end of 2012

Also, it was reported elsewhere that
5. Z24 says 45 787 are to be built in 2012 (which is close to 4 per month, inconsistent with 4.)
6. LN63 is the first airplane requiring no rework

Let's see...
747-8 rate is 1,5 per month, to increase to 2 per month this summer. Say 30 deliveries in 2012 including some from the inventory
Leaves 40-55 787 to be delivered in 2012 to make the total of 70-85
If two thirds of 40-55 deliveries are made out of rework this owuld mean 30-36
If the average 787 production rate for 2012 is 3 per month, another 36 are produced, basically completing all pre-LN90 machines by the end of 2012. If LN63 is the first not requiring rework, then LN63-LN89 = 27 requiring no rework could be delivered straight form the FAL.

But 30-36 + 27 is not like 2/3 + 1/3 and the total would be 57-63 instead of 40-55

Something doesn't add up. Either i) total deliveries are going to exceed 70-85 or ii) LNs requiring rework extend well beyond "a line number in the mid 60s" or iii) rather slightly more than half of the deliveries will come out of rework and not 2/3.

What do I miss?  
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 29):
4. Production rate is planned to increase from 2,5 per month to 3,5 in summer to 5 by the end of 2012

Also, it was reported elsewhere that
5. Z24 says 45 787 are to be built in 2012 (which is close to 4 per month, inconsistent with 4.)

It all depends on exactly when the rate breaks are. There are combinations of 2.5/month, 3.5/month, and 5/month that will give you a 4 per month average for the year,

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 29):
If the average 787 production rate for 2012 is 3 per month...Something doesn't add up.

The average of 2.5, 3.5, and 5 isn't 3 under the current schedule Boeing is saying.

Tom.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 30):
The average of 2.5, 3.5, and 5 isn't 3 under the current schedule Boeing is saying.

I assumed 6 months at 2,5 plus 6 months at 3,5 with a ramp to 5 end of the year, i.e. effective for early 2013, in line with what the CEO and CFO designate said at the call.

You can get to an average rate of 4 by running at 2,5 in Q1, at 3,5 in Q2 and then at 5 in Q3 and Q4. Means 5 has to be achieved in June/July. That would certainly be a welcome and unexpected recovery of schedule.

That said, assuming an average rate 4 for the full year makes the earnings call statements appear even less consistent. That would mean 40 new aircraft beyond LN63 in 2012 that require no rework and can be deliverd 1-2 weeks after leaving the FAL. How many aircraft do you expect to be deliverd out of the current inventory of 42 then? (50 - 3 w/o - 5 already delivered, not counting planes LN46 and LN52-LN56 in the FALs)

While we are at it, I do not understand why Boeing is talking about a production rate of 2,5 per month having been achieved in October last year when the actual output remained 2 per month ever since?

[Edited 2012-01-28 11:55:34]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:26 pm

As to the current production rate, LN50-53 averaged 14 days between start of final assembly. Not including holidays, Boeing needs to have a 787 start final assembly every 12 days to maintain the 2.5 per month rate. So Boeing is closer to 2.5 per month than 2.0 and if they had staff work holidays, they would have gained a week-plus.

CHS will be delivering planes by the middle of 2012, as their first - LN46 for AI - is in Position Three having mechanical, electrical and hydraulic systems installed, so they will be providing at least one delivery per month. So I could see them at 5 by the end of the year, with CHS offering 1-1.5 and PAE offering 3.5-4. I'm not sure when the "surge line" is up at PAE, but that will provide them with three effective FALs.

As for the re-worked planes, LN30 through LN45 should all be deliverable this year, so that's 15. LN7-LN29 will probably be partially delivered this year. LN7-LN19 need the most re-work, but Boeing's also been working on them the longest and have been able to get two (LN8 and LN9 delivered). LN24 has been delivered and LN23 can be delivered as soon as the GEnx model has been certified.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 9:17 pm

Stitch, basically what you and Tom say makes more sense that what was provided as guidance at the earnings call.  

- Average production rate of 4 per month over the year (in line with what's known about Z24)
- 45-50 new aircraft, first dozen up to LN62 going into rework, 3 dozen from LN63 onwards delivered directly to customers
- Another 15-20 delivered out of the inventory after rework
- Makes a total of about 50-55 787 deliveries in 2012, 2/3 from new production, only 1/3 from inventory
- Add about 20-25 747-8 and you get to within the guidance of 70-85 combined 787 and 747-8 deliveries in 2012
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:50 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 29):
Something doesn't add up. Either i) total deliveries are going to exceed 70-85 or ii) LNs requiring rework extend well beyond "a line number in the mid 60s" or iii) rather slightly more than half of the deliveries will come out of rework and not 2/3.

What do I miss?  

Production and Deliveries are two different things. Even in a mature line they can be quite different. Some customers want more than one frame at thier delivery meaning a frame has to sit while its sister(s) are being built. Some are produced but not delievered as they await some final piece, like paint or seats.

For the 787 its even more than that, given that its likely that not all the planes produced in december will be delivered due to natural lag in the process. So the increasing rate of production preceeds the rate of delivery, which means that more will be produced than delivered in a given timeframe.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 31):
That would mean 40 new aircraft beyond LN63 in 2012 that require no rework and can be deliverd 1-2 weeks after leaving the FAL.

That's way too short between leaving the FAL and delivery...paint takes almost a week and the test flights and customer flights typically take more than a week, which leaves out the entire fueling/functional check/preflight period.

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 31):
While we are at it, I do not understand why Boeing is talking about a production rate of 2,5 per month having been achieved in October last year when the actual output remained 2 per month ever since?

Charleston.

Tom.
 
dynamicsguy
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:58 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 31):
While we are at it, I do not understand why Boeing is talking about a production rate of 2,5 per month having been achieved in October last year when the actual output remained 2 per month ever since?

I don't have anything more recent, but from the 787 Production Thread Part 1, reply 51 quoting NYC777:

Quote:
Got a few more final assembly start dates:

L/N 51 - 11/10/11
L/N 52 - 11/22/11
L/N 53 - 12/6/11

If you consider the manufacturing days only (bearing in mind that you lose 2 days for Thanksgiving), the number days between Ln51-Ln52 is 8 , as is the number between Ln52-53. You get 20-21 manufacturing days per month, so at least from that small sample they were doing 2.5/month at Everett back in November.

I don't have any further data so I have no idea when this rate was achieved or whether it was sustained.
 
trent900
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:12 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
If it is (which I suspect it is), are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?

The same could be said for the 788. Will airlines become 'fed-up' with the 788 and jump to the A350? I dont think so. Whoevers chosen the aircraft for their needs will stick to it, and some airlines will operate both types considering each can be used for a different mission.

Trent.
 
BD338
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 3:23 pm

As I see it...

a) Way too early in airline ownership lifetime to say if the 787 in general is a huge success or not for them or what it's optimum mission profile might look like (no one really considered the 757 for TATL until CO started having success)

b) 787 is a fuel efficient, technologically advanced, long range version replacement of the 767.

c) The much touted "new city pairs" point to point service promoted by Boeing ignores airline operation reality of routing passengers via hubs. New service on thin long haul flights from hubs? Yes, it opens the opportunity for those flights. New service between two non-hub points, doubt it.

d) Passengers can expect the same comfort/service they get on any other aircraft (especially a recent refurb one) in the operators fleet, it might be a new seat with a bigger IFE screen but coach will still be coach. Bigger windows and a slightly lower pressurization altitude are not going to be game changers for most folks. Now, if the noise level is down from a 767 or 777 then that might be noticeable.

Now..I do want to fly on one. Waiting for UA/CO to get theirs and see where they send them.
 
cosmofly
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:46 pm

What I admire most are the trail blazing courage and risks that brought us numerous leaps in technologies. Granted that many paid a dear price and were not successful, Boeing at least now has a realistic shot of profiting from a revolutionary airframe and its manufacturing processes. It will undoubtedly give Boeing much know how to new generations of productions that we are going to be excited about.
 
tdscanuck
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:22 pm

Quoting BD338 (Reply 38):
Bigger windows and a slightly lower pressurization altitude are not going to be game changers for most folks.

The pressurization altitude makes a *big* difference for most on long haul flights (this isn't 787 unique, it shows up on A380's and biz jets too). It will take some time for there to be enough 787's in revenue service for that to stick though.

Tom.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:30 pm

I’d say no, not yet at least. Being over-weight and with slightly underperforming engines it’s not achieving the fuel savings Boeing advertised, which I’m sure will be corrected in time.

It’s financial performance however is another matter entirely. With 857 orders since 2004 no one can dispute it has sold well, but when you realise the A330 has sold 717 units in the same time period it takes the shine off it a little. Especially when you consider that the A330 is over 20 years old and has long since broken even so its orders represent a fair old chunk of cash for Airbus.

Quoting olddominion727 (Thread starter):
are many carriers going to jump ship from the 350XWB in hopes of getting a secure order in on an aircraft that actually exists?

As you can see from above the 787 is having a hard enough time beating a 20 year old Airbus design, so I don’t see it posing any threat to a brand new one just yet.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:53 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 41):
Being over-weight and with slightly underperforming engines it’s not achieving the fuel savings Boeing advertised

This is a key point...it's can sometimes be misleading to compare the 787 against Boeing's own predictions when you're talking about market success. Even if it never reaches the original promises, the 787 isn't competing against it's own specs, it's competing against other aircraft. Thus, even if it never achieves the fuel savings Boeing advertised (even though it probably will), it is still saving a lot of fuel and is still the most fuel efficient thing at that size that you can get right now.

Tom.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 42):
it is still saving a lot of fuel and is still the most fuel efficient thing at that size that you can get right now.

This is also a key point, you cant get it right now. It remains to be seen how competitive the frames being delivered right now will be against the A330, especially once it has had its latest round of up dates. Don't get me wrong, it will obviously be much more efficient eventually, but with it not being expected to reach its targets until at least frame 60 and the production ramp up only just starting it's going to be a while.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:13 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
It remains to be seen how competitive the frames being delivered right now will be against the A330, especially once it has had its latest round of up dates.

It's got better aerodynamics, better engines, and it's only heavy *relative to its spec*. How could it not be competitive on fuel burn for overlapping missions?

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
with it not being expected to reach its targets until at least frame 60 and the production ramp up only just starting it's going to be a while.

If the line number start dates posted higher up are correct, frame 60 will be in final assembly next month.

Tom.
 
Daysleeper
Posts: 565
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:28 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 44):

It's got better aerodynamics, better engines, and it's only heavy *relative to its spec*. How could it not be competitive on fuel burn for overlapping missions?

I just said competitive, I wasn't specifically referring to fuel burn.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 44):

If the line number start dates posted higher up are correct, frame 60 will be in final assembly next month.

With the 787 that means absolutely nothing.


As I've said, in time it is obviously going to be, or should be considerably better than the A330. I just don't think the 787 is out of the woods yet, so to speak. I've read a fair few articles which are questioning Boeings ability to ramp up production to anywhere near the rates they are quoting, and we know from Airbus's experience with the A380 how damaging this can be to a project.
 
AngMoh
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RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
This is also a key point, you cant get it right now.

   The whole point is that you can't get it right now and neither the A350 unless you placed your order 8 years ago. The only efficient jets you can order today and get in reasonable timeframe are the 77W and A330. And for some funny reason, they are the only widebodies selling well today.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 44):
It's got better aerodynamics, better engines, and it's only heavy *relative to its spec*. How could it not be competitive on fuel burn for overlapping missions?

Because today's A330 is tremendously improved relative to 2004's A330. One is a heavily optimized version of old tech, the other is non-optimized version of new-tech. Order a 787 today for delivery in 2022, and it will definitely be better than the A330 of that time. But for the next 3-5 years, it is a much closer call.
 
tdscanuck
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:01 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
This is also a key point, you cant get it right now.

That really depends what you mean by "right now." There is a pervasive, and absolutely wrong, belief that OEM's fill their production lines up from front to back. I.e. that if you place the 900th order today you're going to be getting line number 900 or later...OEM's only fill up their production slots in a locked-in way about 6-12 months ahead. If you order a 787 or A350 today you should be able to get one within about a year with the right order structure (price, number of orders, negotiations, etc). Faster if you're willing to buy out another customer's slot. Yes, if you order a single aircraft and don't want to pay extra, you're probably looking at 10+ years to delivery. But if you're a major ordering dozens of aircraft in one fell swoop with more likely to follow, you can expect to get slots much much earlier.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 45):
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 44):

If the line number start dates posted higher up are correct, frame 60 will be in final assembly next month.

With the 787 that means absolutely nothing.

OK, then I don't understand this:

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
it not being expected to reach its targets until at least frame 60 and the production ramp up only just starting it's going to be a while.

I thought you were saying it won't reach target until line 60 and that it's going to take a while to get to line 60...they'll be on line 60 next month.

Tom.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:49 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 29):
What do I miss?

You are grasping far too much figures that are published by Boeing to get a consistent and comprehensive picture. Other than that the intelligentsia of our forum seems to have clarified the missing bits in the meantime. Well done, guys...
 
Arniepie
Posts: 1429
Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:00 pm

RE: Is The 788 Everything Boeing Proclaimed?

Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:54 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 47):
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 43):
This is also a key point, you cant get it right now.

That really depends what you mean by "right now." There is a pervasive, and absolutely wrong, belief that OEM's fill their production lines up from front to back. I.e. that if you place the 900th order today you're going to be getting line number 900 or later...OEM's only fill up their production slots in a locked-in way about 6-12 months ahead. If you order a 787 or A350 today you should be able to get one within about a year with the right order structure (price, number of orders, negotiations, etc). Faster if you're willing to buy out another customer's slot. Yes, if you order a single aircraft and don't want to pay extra, you're probably looking at 10+ years to delivery. But if you're a major ordering dozens of aircraft in one fell swoop with more likely to follow, you can expect to get slots much much earlier.

Interesting you say this Tdscanuck,
Normally production planning indeed foresees the posibility of extra production slots in between existing ones.
However specifically for the 787 ,didn't mr Fancher stated somewhere in may 2011 that because of the production
ramp up problems due to supplier issues ,problems at the 2 production sites (eg the still to be finished of parked frames,....) and the engine production ramp up speed that still needs to be achieved, it is very difficult to add new
customers with early production slots without doing some major renegotiating with other existing customers.

Essentially free slots are all but gone, only buying slots from already existing customers is the only way of getting
frames with a reasonable waiting time.
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