rafflesking
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US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:34 pm

Oddly, despite the slot swap with DL - US has announced they are adding two new routes to DCA - from CVG and DSM.

CVG is 1x daily CRJ service beginning May 2.
DSM is 1x daily (except Saturday) E70 service beginning May 2.
 
SouthernDC9
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:11 pm

Quoting rafflesking (Thread starter):
Oddly, despite the slot swap with DL - US has announced they are adding two new routes to DCA - from CVG and DSM.

This isn't odd though, since US got the DCA slots - right? Now I wish they would add XNA.
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rafflesking
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:42 pm

Wow - I'm an idiot.

I mixed up DL and US's slot swap.

I need a refill on my   

[Edited 2012-02-13 06:42:20]
 
planespotting
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:00 pm

Holy cow - DSM's year of amazing news continues.

But how is this going to go over on US' 70 seat aircraft considering DL couldn't make it work on its own 75 seat aircraft - not to mention that DL has a pretty powerful market share in DSM compared to US, which up until recently only flew three flights a day between DSM and PHX?
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DCA-ROCguy
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:07 pm

US may be thinking that their stronger array of connection possibilities at DCA may help make DSM-DCA work.

Jim
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FlyPNS1
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:14 pm

 
planespotting
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:39 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 4):
US may be thinking that their stronger array of connection possibilities at DCA may help make DSM-DCA work.

Yes, that is a possibility ... but why not supply more seats to CLT and its even wider array of connetion opportunities to both the east coast and the southeast, instead of the risk of wasting two DCA slots (and 138 seats per day) on a market that has not worked for any airline in the past (UA, PMNW or DL).

Kudos to US for giving this route a shot, but I can't imagine the chances of success are that good - especially at 2x. Part of me thinks that because DSM has actually been a very lucrative market for them in the past 5-10 years (with the 3x to PHX and nothing else) US really wants to hang on to whatever market share they have in anticipation of WN's route planning/announcement out of DSM, so they're giving central Iowa travelers more options to fly US to destinations on both coasts (CLT and DCA now in addition to PHX).
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evanbu
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:57 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 5):

Do you realize that with the DL service ending around July 10, DSM will have 3X DSM-DCA from May until July?

Overkill much?

IF US was smart, and they probably aren't, they WOULD upgrade DSM-PHX to an Airbus, basically saying to WN, "You're going to have to work for it to get DSM-PHX"
 
planespotting
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:09 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 7):
Do you realize that with the DL service ending around July 10, DSM will have 3X DSM-DCA from May until July?

Overkill much?

IF US was smart, and they probably aren't, they WOULD upgrade DSM-PHX to an Airbus, basically saying to WN, "You're going to have to work for it to get DSM-PHX"

Agreed - I feel like 2x Airbus to PHX plus one daily E-Jet to CLT and one daily E-Jet to DCA would be more than ample for DSM's size.
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smoot4208
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:17 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 7):

There thinking for DSM is probably since F9 is cutting a DCA frequency from both MKE and MCI, and given F9 already does ptp routes like MSN/GRR-DCA and they didnt want F9 to start DSM-DCA
 
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evanbu
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 9):

Midwest Express offered DSM-DCA until they dropped it for NW/DL, so I would be surprised if F9 added DSM-DCA.

I have ALWAYS said, and yes you could call me crazy, but a Saturday only seasonal DSM-CUN flight would not only work, but it would do very well for whatever airline picked up that route.
 
jetmatt777
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:00 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 7):
IF US was smart, and they probably aren't, they WOULD upgrade DSM-PHX to an Airbus, basically saying to WN, "You're going to have to work for it to get DSM-PHX"

There's only 178 people per day in the DSMPHX market...That's 89 each way per day on average. The average fare is $178, which yields an average 15 cents a mile yield. Not great but not bad. US would be better off keeping a smaller aircraft with a higher yield than flooding the market with unnecessary mainline seats and diluting the yield by forcing connections to fill the planes.
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lhcvg
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:43 pm

I just looked at a dummy booking for June 6-12 r/t on DCA-CVG, and saw that US wants $500 while DL wants $358 - is US's market presence THAT strong at DCA that they can command that kind of premium on a route like CVG?
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:47 pm

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 12):
I just looked at a dummy booking for June 6-12 r/t on DCA-CVG, and saw that US wants $500 while DL wants $358 - is US's market presence THAT strong at DCA that they can command that kind of premium on a route like CVG?

No. Usually, when a carrier first loads flights, the fares are often a bit off until the get a feeling for the market. When US first loaded DCA-PNS, they were asking for $500 r/t for advanced purchase fares. But after a week or two, the advance purchase fares fell to a more reasonable level $250-300.
 
lhcvg
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:52 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
No. Usually, when a carrier first loads flights, the fares are often a bit off until the get a feeling for the market. When US first loaded DCA-PNS, they were asking for $500 r/t for advanced purchase fares. But after a week or two, the advance purchase fares fell to a more reasonable level $250-300.

Ahh ok then. I thought it was a little odd they would be that far off, but it makes sense that they have to adjust.
 
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evanbu
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:16 pm

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 11):
Quoting evanbu (Reply 7):
IF US was smart, and they probably aren't, they WOULD upgrade DSM-PHX to an Airbus, basically saying to WN, "You're going to have to work for it to get DSM-PHX"

There's only 178 people per day in the DSMPHX market...That's 89 each way per day on average. The average fare is $178, which yields an average 15 cents a mile yield. Not great but not bad. US would be better off keeping a smaller aircraft with a higher yield than flooding the market with unnecessary mainline seats and diluting the yield by forcing connections to fill the planes.

In the words of "Field of Dreams", if you build it, they will come. It's no secret how many Iowans live in Arizona. America West had mainline up until a few years back, and the bottom line is that if you provide a larger aircraft, it will be full. WN will probably take full advantage of US running a CRJ 2X daily on that particular route.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting planespotting (Reply 6):
Yes, that is a possibility ... but why not supply more seats to CLT and its even wider array of connetion opportunities to both the east coast and the southeast, instead of the risk of wasting two DCA slots (and 138 seats per day) on a market that has not worked for any airline in the past (UA, PMNW or DL).


Regarding other airlines, I don't know. Regarding US, they may believe that DCA has greater O & D potential--and thus possible higher yields--than does adding CLT capacity. Greater O & D than CLG + greater connecting possibilities than DL offered at DCA, may be the reasoning.

Jim
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planespotting
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:30 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 15):
It's no secret how many Iowans live in Arizona. America West had mainline up until a few years back, and the bottom line is that if you provide a larger aircraft, it will be full.

I think this is likely - I would need more fingers and toes to count the number of people I went to college or high school with in Iowa who at one point called Arizona home for at least a few years of their adult lives (or who are my parents/grandparents age and moved there semi-permenantly for retirement).

And if Southwest comes to the market offering $140 each way three months out (currently that's the lowest one-way from OMA-PHX nonstop) , those planes are going to be full.
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reramprat
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:06 pm

Does anyone see WN trying to attack US at DSM on BOTH fronts with a direct flight to BWI? I agree that the competition at DSM is about to get very interesting.
 
jetmatt777
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting evanbu (Reply 15):
In the words of "Field of Dreams", if you build it, they will come. It's no secret how many Iowans live in Arizona. America West had mainline up until a few years back, and the bottom line is that if you provide a larger aircraft, it will be full. WN will probably take full advantage of US running a CRJ 2X daily on that particular route.

Sure you can fill planes...that's not the point. You want to profitably fill airplanes. I could theoretically start an airline and put 747's on DSM-PHX, charge $1 a seat and fill every single seat.

The number one point of business is offering slightly less supply than there is demand. When you put more supply than demand, the price has to drop to stimulate demand. The lower the price goes the lower the margin. The lower the margin the less money we make. Let's go ahead and roll the A380's out to DSM since it's the new up and becoming market for large aircraft to every destination in the world.

Despite the A.net community being against anything RJ, RJ's can be profitable. And there are markets that are profitable with them. There is nothing wrong with PHX-DSM being an RJ market. It doesn't mean Iowa is weak. It doesn't mean US doesn't want to control the market. It doesn't mean US has anything against DSM. It doesn't mean any of the emotional things this forum breeds. US has people who's living is making money for the airline by placing the right aircraft on the right routes and on the right schedule to put supply to the demand. They go to work every day and that is all they do.

We on the other hand, come on to an online forum in our spare time while the dinner is in the microwave and try to do their jobs from the armchair. I'll trust that the airline knows what they are doing, and we only half way know at best. There's more to making a profit than filling an airplane.
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HPRamper
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:58 pm

Quoting reramprat (Reply 18):
Does anyone see WN trying to attack US at DSM on BOTH fronts with a direct flight to BWI? I agree that the competition at DSM is about to get very interesting.

I don't think DSM is the kind of market that these carriers really want to start some kind of battle over. I also don't think DCA is really all that interchangeable with BWI. In any case, I would not expect DSM-BWI.

If for some reason WN decided to kill US's yields by building up DSM, US may well simply move out to CID which has a sizable market of its own.

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 19):
Despite the A.net community being against anything RJ, RJ's can be profitable.

90% of the RJ hate on here is all about how uncomfortable and unfriendly to tall people they are, not about profitability concerns. Personally I don't really have a problem with them and understand they fill a niche...the niche of serving cities that have less than a million residents.
 
CRJ900
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 19):
Despite the A.net community being against anything RJ, RJ's can be profitable

Hasn't Mesa / US Express flown PHX-DSM successfully with the CRJ900 for years? I seem to recall one A.netter saying it was a great money maker.
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planespotting
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:03 pm

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 19):
Let's go ahead and roll the A380's out to DSM since it's the new up and becoming market for large aircraft to every destination in the world.

  

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 19):
The number one point of business is offering slightly less supply than there is demand.

No one is saying US isn't doing a good job right now on DSM-PHX with RJs, because they are. It's obviously been a great niche route for them out of DSM for a long time. We're just saying that by leaving RJs on the route they are probably:

a) leaving revenue on the table
b) ripe for the picking if WN chooses to fly DSM-PHX

Maybe WN won't even mess with the route and the few of us clamoring for mainline will be left shaking our heads.

You're right to point out that RJs definitely don't mean the city or geographical area served is weak - just that the route is either undersized or underserved. Evanbu and I happen to think it's underserved, and from what I've heard anecdotally, it is and US Airways knows it, and that's their choice, which is cool.

But if WN comes in with its low-cost strategy and structure and decides to put a 73G on the route, their service will be superior, and both the flying public and US will know it, and I doubt they'll fight for it.
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WROORD
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:13 pm

Good news for CVG. I wish they added DCA from ORD. Both UA and AA keep the duopoly high prices on this route.
 
mah584jr
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:28 pm

Quoting WROORD (Reply 23):
Good news for CVG. I wish they added DCA from ORD. Both UA and AA keep the duopoly high prices on this route.

I think they should add ORD as well. I know there's quite a bit of capacity on the route already but there's no reason not to start service to a market that size.

I think some of it has to do with the fact that their alliance partner UA already serves the route. Perhaps they don't want to step on any toes. However, both carriers operate to Philadelphia, no reason why they can't both serve DCA.
 
Sydscott
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:32 pm

Quoting mah584jr (Reply 24):
no reason why they can't both serve DCA.

Or US could strike a codeshare agreement with AA for ORD-DCA...............
 
boberito6589
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting sydscott (Reply 25):
Quoting mah584jr (Reply 24):
no reason why they can't both serve DCA.

Or US could strike a codeshare agreement with AA for ORD-DCA...............

There already is a codeshare agreement on flights from ORD-DCA with UA... just not for people traveling ORD-DCA only
 
joeljack
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:28 am

I think this will do ok at 2x daily. There is good traffic on this route. I wonder if a E170 is over kill though? It would surprise me if the afternoon flight reverts back to a CR2. Only time will tell.

Quoting reramprat (Reply 18):
Does anyone see WN trying to attack US at DSM on BOTH fronts with a direct flight to BWI? I agree that the competition at DSM is about to get very interesting.

Yes it is interesting, something will have to give. New service over the past year at DSM...

WN...to where...who knows yet...probably DEN and MDW for sure. (LAS?, PHX?)
Allegiant...additional capacity for the spring...probably on the order of twice the flights compared to last year March vs March.
American...2x RJ's go to MD80's on DFW-DSM
UA to EWR 1 x daily RJ
Delta...going to 2x daily MD80's on ATL route along with an RJ. (up from 3 RJ's)
F9...2x daily A319...changes back to E190 April 15th. (I expected this because many of the A319's are really empty on non peak times)
F9...new service for this winter to MCO and TPA (loads on many TPA flight are awful...some full but many only 10 passengers) I can't imagine this coming back. MCO is doing much better compared to TPA...MCO may come back.
US 2x daily to DCA and 2x daily to CLT

So with all those increases...I wonder what will give? It will be interesting to see where DSM sits 2 years from now.

My predictions:
DFW goes back to RJ's (75/25)
ATL goes back to RJ's (75/25)
F9 leaves the DSM market. (50/50)
Allegiant...who knows...I bet they stick around...depends on WN and if they start LAS-DSM service though.
Airtran stops MKE service (obvious this will happen when MDW is started on WN) (100%)
United goes to all RJ's...reductions recently for UA in DSM...almost there already. (80/20)
 
IPFreely
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:52 am

Quoting planespotting (Reply 22):
Maybe WN won't even mess with the route and the few of us clamoring for mainline will be left shaking our heads.

There are probably 5-6 possible routes for WN to start from DSM. DSM-MDW is probably a given and DSM-STL is very possible. Westbound possibilites are DSM-DEN, DSM-LAS, and DSM-PHX. I can see WN starting any two of these routes but maybe not all three. Especially since they usually don't add routes unless they are flown multiple times daily.

Of the three routes, DSM-DEN probably forces Frontier out; DSM-LAS probably forces Allegiant out, and DSM-PHX probably forces US out. Of those three airlines, US is probably in the best position to stay and compete with WN. Especially if they add more than the one route they already fly. I wouldn't be surprised to see WN go after weaker prey first with DSM-DEN and DSM-LAS, then go after DSM-PHX later after they're established in DSM.
 
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tjwgrr
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:39 pm

Apparently GRR has been in talks with US. This was in our local paper yesterday:

"Could US Airways return to Ford Airport after a more than 6-year hiatus?"
http://www.mlive.com/business/west-m...ould_us_airways_return_to_for.html

Could we see GRR-DCA, and/or the return of GRR-PHL or even GRR-CLT which operated for a short while a number of years ago?
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OzarkD9S
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:28 pm

Still hoping for DCA-STL on US. With DL leaving and AA downgrading to Eagle, there should be an opportunity there with DCA connex. Of course the conspiracy theorists will argue that US will get the route when they buy AMR.
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Web
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RE: US To Add DCA To CVG And DSM

Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:14 pm

Quoting tjwgrr (Reply 29):
Apparently GRR has been in talks with US.

I hope this is true! With the slot swap, GRR will be out of a daily DCA flight (I don't really count F9's route - it's 3x weekly, the timing is terrible, and I don't expect it to last long). If DSM can maintain and even expand their DCA service, I don't see why GRR couldn't at least keep 1x daily, even just on a CRJ/ERJ.

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