boeingfever777
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:46 pm

I was curious as why SA has not purchased the a380? They could benefit from this on routes to Europe and expansion. Also what is their expansion plans? They seem to utilize the a346 well and could pick up some from other carriers wanting to phase the a/c out such as TH & QR. Couldn't they pick up some used a346's and a343's and order (4) a380's? I just wonder why they are waiting so long as I think they are a perfect carrier to fly this a/c.

ORD
IAH
CDG
DXB
SYD
MEL

Didn't they use to fly to some of these destinations?

Thoughts?
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LGWflyer
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:54 pm

I don't really think they need to waste money on an A380 when the 19 A340's and 6 quite new A330's (which they did get not long ago) they have which work well for them already. The A380 I think would be too much of a plane, 330/340's work better.
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jfk777
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 12:36 am

SAA does NOT need to join the A380 "Club". Its too big for them and they don't even offer First Class any more. SAA needs planes that can fly nonstop to far away places with 200-300 passengers. London is only SAA city an A380 would even make sense for. Having one type for one city, even if you fly there 3 times daily, is not wise fleet polcy.
 
Quokkas
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 4:11 am

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
Didn't they use to fly to some of these destinations?

SA used to serve MEL and SYD but now have an arrangement with QF flying from SYD to JNB, while SA operates flights to/ from PER .

DXB is operated under a code-share agreement with EK metal serving CPT, JNB and DUR .
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American 767
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 5:22 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
London is only SAA city an A380 would even make sense for.

New York also.

But yes I agree that the A380 would be too large for them, based on what they need.
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MillwallSean
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 5:25 am

Had SA seen better liquidity they would definately be an airline that would buy a handful of A380.
But the airline isnt a profitcentre or maybe it is but has to many hand stealing candy but thats another issue.,

Australia, London and a route to Asia seems like made for the A380 from JBurg.
FRA Im not to sure about and the US nah, not important enough from Saffa.
For us that like airports and the industry an A380 in SA s colourscheme would be like a wet dream...
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aerorobnz
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:33 am

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 3):
SA used to serve MEL and SYD but now have an arrangement with QF flying from SYD to JNB, while SA operates flights to/ from PER .

which is shortly up for negotiation. Given QFs problems anything is possible.

As far as A380 carriers, I still believe there will be more and more coming in the coming years. There are many carriers like SA that can justify A380s seasonally or on certain routes but maybe are not just there yet.
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B738FlyUIA
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 8:03 am

If I'm not mistaken I've seen they fly with the A346 to MUC or even FRA!!!!
 
babybus
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 9:39 am

having a fleet of ten or so A380s would make sense. Sometimes it seems their entire A340 fleet is sitting at LHR awaiting departure.

If they could fill 3 or 4 daily 744s out of LHR then I'm sure they could use the A380. It's cheaper to operate and better for long haul.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 9:44 am

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
If they could fill 3 or 4 daily 744s out of LHR then I'm sure they could use the A380. It's cheaper to operate and better for long haul.

They may have filled them, but theyw ere losing crap loasds of money doing it. Hence why LHR see's A332/A340s now.
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Pe@rson
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 9:46 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 9):


They may have filled them, but theyw ere losing crap loasds of money doing it. Hence why LHR see's A332/A340s now.

Yep.

SA's CEO has explicitly said they have no intention for such capacity aircraft.
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EddieDude
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:04 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
SAA does NOT need to join the A380 "Club". Its too big for them and they don't even offer First Class any more. SAA needs planes that can fly nonstop to far away places with 200-300 passengers. London is only SAA city an A380 would even make sense for. Having one type for one city, even if you fly there 3 times daily, is not wise fleet polcy.

Good point. I agree with that. Since the A380 was launched, SA has been mentioned on and off as a potential candidate, but yes, it would be too much plane for them, and only potentially good for a couple of routes.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 6):
which is shortly up for negotiation. Given QFs problems anything is possible.

Yes, I read about that. It is interesting. On the one hand, the QF flights from SYD and the SA flights to PER show the market exists. If QF's international operations are the ones that are suffering and this particular partnership is up for review, then I wonder if QF would be tempted to just terminate it considering that it cannot turn a profit, in which case SA would have to decide whether to continue serving Australia without's QF cooperation, or if QF would actually consider strengthening the relationship with SA and potentially ceding a more active role to SA in the S. Africa - Australia flights. Anyway, that is the subject of a different thread.

Back on topic, what are SA's options for the future in terms of large aircraft and long haul destinations? The 747 fleet is on the way out, right? If I am not mistaken, these planes were parked and some of them were briefly returned to active service not too long ago. Anyway, it is safe to say that SA will eventually replace both the 744s and all the A340s with a single family of aircraft, with the ability to serve LHR, FRA, MUC, JFK, IAD and PER (and potentially SYD and other destinations in the U.S.). Has SA placed orders or signed MOUs for A350s? The challenge is to be able to serve JFK and PER nonstop efficiently with twin-engine planes.
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boeingfever777
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting gkirk (Reply 9):
Hence why LHR see's A332/A340s now.

What did they use to see instead?



What are the chances SA gets some use a340-600s in the near future for expansion? Also are they even looking for expanding their network?
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scbriml
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 6:38 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
If they could fill 3 or 4 daily 744s out of LHR then I'm sure they could use the A380.

When was the last time you saw multiple SAA 747s at LHR? Heck, it's not even as though their 3 flights are all A346s - it's a mix of all A342s, A343s, A346s and now A332s.

As much as I'd love to see an SAA A380, I can't see it happening.
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PlymSpotter
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 6:55 pm

With reasonable management I think there is a good chance of seeing a small fleet of SAA A380s in the long run. But by long run I mean 2020-2030, when the A346s need a replacement.


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SA7700
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:07 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
The 747 fleet is on the way out, right? If I am not mistaken, these planes were parked and some of them were briefly returned to active service not too long ago.

All of the 747-400's left the South African Airways fleet.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 13):
I can't see it happening.

Agreed. The airline's finances is so precarious they just announced they will need another government bailout. It is a disgrace. IMO SAA should be privatized.



South African Airways (SAA) has warned it would post a loss this financial year and said it was in talks with the government for a recapitalisation of about R4bn-R6bn to fund operational costs, its growth strategy and fleet renewal.


SAA needs extra R6bn from state as costs bite


EDITORIAL: Breathtaking gall of SAA’s request


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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:17 pm

I think SA really needs the 787. I know hot and high is a factor but some later build 787s with slight improvements and lower weights would really find a good place and usefulness at South African.
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airbazar
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:30 pm

SAA suffers tremendously from the fact that a lot of their long haul routes are North-South, resulting in very poor aircraft utilization, not to mention that just about any significant market requires more than 1 aircraft to operate, and the physical and geographic location of JNB pretty much forces them to operate quads in most of their long haul routes. So what happens when the A340's are no longer viable?
 
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notaxonrotax
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:40 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 15):
All of the 747-400's left the South African Airways fleet.

Where / Who did they go to?
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RayChuang
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:45 pm

I think South African Airways should be in talks to buy the A350-1000, provided the A3510 doesn't lose significant range when operating from JNB during the Southern Hemisphere summer. If Airbus can demonstrate the A3510 can fly from JNB to JFK on a near-full load at JNB's "hot and high" conditions, SA would sign off for possibly 14-15 A3510's.
 
EddieDude
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:45 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 19):
I think South African Airways should be in talks to buy the A350-1000

Does anyone have any idea when SA is expected to request proposals for long haul planes from Airbus and Boeing? Seems to me the A350 family might be a good solution for SA, but a combo of 787s and 777NGs (800LRs or whatever they will be called) might also be a good idea.
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SA7700
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting notaxonrotax (Reply 18):
Where / Who did they go to?

According to http://www.airfleets.net/home/

ZS-SAV on 15/01/2007 to CX as B-HUR
ZS-SAW on 16/03/2006 to CX as B-HUS
ZS-SAX on 20/12/2007 to Transaero as VP-BVR
ZS-SAY on 12/12/2008 to Transaero as VP-BKJ
ZS-SAK on 07/10/2008 to Transaero as VP-BKL
ZS-SBK on 10/06/2010 to Transaero as VQ-BHW
ZS-SBS on 20/12/2010 to Transaero as VQ-BHX
ZS-SAZ on 01/11/2011 due to Transaero as VQ-


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JQflightie
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):

SA is making no money on the Codeshare JNB-SYD and is only just breaking even on the JNB-PER run. The International Air Services Commission has told QF and SA that they are more then likely not going to approve the codeshare past this year, but if QF and SA both fly daily on the SYD-JNB-SYD flights and PER-JNB-PER flight that they will approve the codeshare arrangement, but both airlines are saying no deal! So there is no way that these routes could support a A380. Loads on the PER-JNB-PER are usually very mixed on the A343 on SA.
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EddieDude
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 22):
SA is making no money on the Codeshare... So there is no way that these routes could support a A380. Loads on the PER-JNB-PER are usually very mixed on the A343 on SA.

Thanks a lot for the info JQflightie, it is very interesting. I wonder if they should focus on serving JNB-PER only, daily and use PER as a connecting point where passengers can transfer on QF flights to the rest of the country, or if they should altogether terminate the flights.
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metalinyoni
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Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:13 pm

I think one of the problems facing SAA is that there are not enough transfer passengers through JNB or CPT to justify an A380 on any of their routes. All the airlines that fly A380's into JNB have good feeder flights from the Americas and / or Asia as well as Europe. Some sub - saharan traffic flows through JNB but not a huge amount and with Emirates now flying to Lusaka and HRE this is going to reduce the number of transfer passengers through JNB even further.
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YULWinterSkies
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:06 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17):
SAA suffers tremendously from the fact that a lot of their long haul routes are North-South, resulting in very poor aircraft utilization, not to mention that just about any significant market requires more than 1 aircraft to operate, and the physical and geographic location of JNB pretty much forces them to operate quads in most of their long haul routes. So what happens when the A340's are no longer viable?

Well, it's a safe assumption that by then, there will be twins that are just as capable, the A350 to just name one. And the A332 has already joined the fleet, so maybe JNB altitude is not that big of a deal.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 19):
If Airbus can demonstrate the A3510 can fly from JNB to JFK on a near-full load at JNB's "hot and high" conditions, SA would sign off for possibly 14-15 A3510's.

And if it can't... what are the options going to be?
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Lufthansa
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:26 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 6):
which is shortly up for negotiation. Given QFs problems anything is possible.
Quoting JQflightie (Reply 22):
SA is making no money on the Codeshare JNB-SYD and is only just breaking even on the JNB-PER run.

From what I've heard it's very tidal at times of the year, and after vigin pulled out I'm pretty sure they won't be Returning anytime soon. SAA is going to be at a disadvantage. The Australian population is on the east coast, so if QF drops the sydney flight they won't have any trouble just sending everybody through PER. And with PER being PER they will fill every single spare seat on the tag on leg with domestic traffic. It's still faster than via Singapore. I really can't see QF entirely exiting the market though. Maybe dropping it back to 3 times a week or something. If it fails SA need to partner with Virgin and start sending a 340 to sydney a few times a week.

I have to wonder how much government interference is going on in this airline though. From the outside it is sounding a lot like Malaysia airlines with its relationship with the Malay government. With the exception of Emirates and Singapore Air, governments and airlines generally don't produce outstanding results. Malaysia - well documented losses on prestige routes, job as political rewards, Aerolineas Argentinas- god where do I begin, Alitalia - profit one single year in its entire history, JAL - huge money pit for the japanese tax payer, SAS - another huge money pit but for 3 governments, the original Olympic - soared in the old days while private but after it became government another huge money pit and we all know what happened. Even Qantas under government ownership had plenty of years of racking up some big losses. I know South Africa does need a long haul airline (though it will face a lot of pressure from middle east hubs on certain routes) but they really have to be careful with this. setting up an expectation of constant bail outs is dangerous and that is money that could be spent on healthcare and education. Plus in theory SA should have a cost advantage over european carriers and North American carriers its competing with. If it doesnt something is wrong.

I
 
anstar
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:26 am

They can't even fill a 747 how are they going to fill an A380?

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17):
SAA suffers tremendously from the fact that a lot of their long haul routes are North-South, resulting in very poor aircraft utilization, not to mention that just about any significant market requires more than 1 aircraft to operate, and the physical and geographic location of JNB pretty much forces them to operate quads in most of their long haul routes.

They are also being attacked by the gulf carriers. I mean they only send and A330 upto LHR these days on some flights.
 
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:55 am

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):

ORD
IAH
CDG
DXB
SYD
MEL

Didn't they use to fly to some of these destinations

IAH-Yes, ORD-Rumored/planned/not sure if it ever ran, CDG-Yes, They have flown to SYD before with PER stop, never knew about MEL being an SA city, DXB I thought was operated some time back on SA metal, but currently is EK/SA.
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:09 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 26):
From what I've heard it's very tidal at times of the year, and after vigin pulled out I'm pretty sure they won't be Returning anytime soon. SAA is going to be at a disadvantage. The Australian population is on the east coast, so if QF drops the sydney flight they won't have any trouble just sending everybody through PER. And with PER being PER they will fill every single spare seat on the tag on leg with domestic traffic. It's still faster than via Singapore. I really can't see QF entirely exiting the market though. Maybe dropping it back to 3 times a week or something. If it fails SA need to partner with Virgin and start sending a 340 to sydney a few times a week.

Think we'd find that if QF pulled out of SYD-JNB, SA's staralliance partner NZ would be pretty fast out of the blocks with a 77W or even 744 flying AKL-SYD-JNB. Chances are highly likely that DJ would codeshare on the service too.
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Lufthansa
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:31 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 29):
Think we'd find that if QF pulled out of SYD-JNB, SA's staralliance partner NZ would be pretty fast out of the blocks with a 77W or even 744 flying AKL-SYD-JNB. Chances are highly likely that DJ would codeshare on the service too.

All three could sell it, but it would of course impact on SA's PER flights. actually I never understood why NZ didn't try MEL-JNB or BNE-JNB.

Does anybody know how SA's flight to latin america are doing now that MH is stopping flying the south atlantic?
 
RyanairGuru
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:28 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 6):
which is shortly up for negotiation. Given QFs problems anything is possible.
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
On the one hand, the QF flights from SYD and the SA flights to PER show the market exists. If QF's international operations are the ones that are suffering and this particular partnership is up for review, then I wonder if QF would be tempted to just terminate it considering that it cannot turn a profit, in which case SA would have to decide whether to continue serving Australia without's QF cooperation, or if QF would actually consider strengthening the relationship with SA and potentially ceding a more active role to SA in the S. Africa - Australia flights. Anyway, that is the subject of a different thread.

As JQFlightie has said, the Australian government (ACCC I think) has indicated that if flight levels remain as they are now, then they will not re-approve the codeshare. Their argument is that it creates an effective monopoly on Australia-South Africa routes (although why they've only just realised that now is beyond me!).

From murmurings on ANet it would appear that SYD-JNB is one of the standout routes for QF International. Along with LAX and LHR (+DFW) it was always the one which was never going anywhere whenever there was speculation about QF's next route cull.

If/when the code-share is not reapproved SAA might decide to enter the market as well, and that would obviously trash QF yields (after all, the lack of competition is the secret to this flight's success). Alternatively, SAA might simply sign an interline agreement with DJ (who seem to like signing them  ) and route East Coast traffic ex SYD, MEL and BNE through PER and try and consolidate the performance of that route.

Who knows...
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Burkhard
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:30 pm

I believe in growth of aviation, especially in South Africa. Johannesburgh has proven to support A380s - if LH or AF would not make more money there on the A380 than with any other aircraft they would not fly it.

Sio it is a question of when, not of if. I could well imagine they take some 15 year old early birds from SQ/LH in about 10 years. Today is too early, and new orders freeze too much money.
 
jfk777
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:40 pm

The only scenario where SAA might get an A380 is if it becomes part of a larger airline group. This has not happened in Africa yet as it is in Latin America. SAA would make a great merger for an International airline group, not thinking of IAG only but LH, Qantas, Emirates or Singapore Airlines.
 
SA7700
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RE: Why No A380 For South African Airways - Financials?

Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:37 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 33):

The only scenario where SAA might get an A380 is if it becomes part of a larger airline group.

Don’t hold your breath. The government is constantly bitching about bailing out South African Airways, but at the same time they won’t let go of state assets or even the partial privatization thereof. Yes, Swissair did own a part of SAA, until their demise. Where after the South African government bough back that 20% share.

Who knows what things would look like today if Lufthansa were actually the successful bidder, instead of Swissair?


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