na
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:01 am

Boeing might plan to built a 777 NG, but its not decided yet and a long time away. Only by the end of this decade such plane could fly. By then the 787 will likely see its first major upgrades and it´ll become even more efficient. The A350 will have been established in the market. Airbus will surely not accept that Boeing revamps its old 777 to become a serious A350 competitor and will likely be fast with p-i-ps. Imho this could signal the end of the 777 and raise the chance for Boeing to built a joint 747/777 successor.
 
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EPA001
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:22 am

Quoting na (Thread starter):
Imho this could signal the end of the 777 and raise the chance for Boeing to built a joint 747/777 successor.


The famous Y3.  

But seriously, it is way too early to tell. Boeing is studying very hard on an improved B777, and all indices are pointing to that. But the outcome of the studies might be that they better go all new. But that moment is still quite a long time away.

It would be interesting to see if all new will take on the A350-1000, or also will go below that. Then the B787-10 and the smallest Y3 would certainly see overlap in passenger capacity. But that is all speculation, but I guess that is what this thread is meant to be.  .

Regarding the topic title, it is more than thinkable imho that the B787 and A350 will make the current B777 obsolete. If they will do the same for a revamped B777 is doubtful imho.
 
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zeke
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:38 am

No new aircraft kills another. Accountants kill aircraft programs.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
ebj1248650
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:40 am

Is the 787 even in the same league as the 777? I can't fathom even a stretched 787 being able to compare with the 773, though it appears the A350 is designed to compete directly with the 773. Just my two cents worth.
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jfk777
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:43 am

Boeing needs the 777NG, the plane needs updating and the world needs such a plane. The A350-900 sounds great but is a 772ER not a 777-300ER type plane.
 
CXB77L
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:45 am

Quoting na (Thread starter):
Airbus will surely not accept that Boeing revamps its old 777 to become a serious A350 competitor

Old ...  

The 777 is still a very young and very advanced airframe.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 1):
it is way too early to tell.

  

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 1):
If they will do the same for a revamped B777 is doubtful imho.

     

The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350. It'll have new generation wings and engines, and possibly a new tail ... and that's just the beginning. I'd imagine that there'd be extensive flight systems upgrades as well. The 777X will be a serious contender to the A350, of that I am certain. If it wasn't, Boeing wouldn't be embarking on the project. As it is, every signal indicates that Boeing will finalise its 777X design within the next year or so, for EIS by the end of the decade. Hopefully, that'll see the 777 family through another decade or two, and hopefully the 777 will be the first twin-aisle widebody aircraft to sell 2000 copies ... but I digress.

[Edited 2012-02-22 03:49:48]
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:07 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
and hopefully the 777 will be the first twin-aisle widebody aircraft to sell 2000 copies ...

Agreed, CXB77L - even with over 1,000 sales already, the 777 still appears to be on the up and up. And it's important to remember that the 788, which is much smaller than the 773, is only just 'trickling' into service. In future years I can see the larger 787s, and the larger A350s when they arrive, eventually 'obsoleting' the 772. But the 773 looks like occupying its unique 'long range/large capacity twin' slot for a very long time to come, on all available indications.

The fact that Boeing are spending out on further 777 design development more or less proves that they currently see things the same way.

[Edited 2012-02-22 04:11:43]
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Stitch
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:21 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 2):
No new aircraft kills another. Accountants kill aircraft programs.

  



Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3):
Is the 787 even in the same league as the 777?

Depending on the seating arrangement, the 787-9 can be a direct replacement for the 777-200ER as they offer near-identical cabin lengths.


As to the long-term fate of the 777, it will eventually be closed and replaced with a new program. But as we have seen with the A300, the A340, the 747 and the 767, a family can still find relevance and revenue for a good long time even with significant competition arrayed against it.
 
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autothrust
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:59 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350.

Rubbish, the A350 will feature the largest all-composite wings ever made, the most advanced avionics, will get A380 technologies like power by wire, Brake to Vacate, NSS, 5,000 psi variable camber wing technology (like the 787) etc..

http://atwonline.com/aircraftengines...nts/article/raising-power-bar-0309
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Daysleeper
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:18 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350. It'll have new generation wings and engines, and possibly a new tail ... and that's just the beginning. I'd imagine that there'd be extensive flight systems upgrades as well. The 777X will be a serious contender to the A350, of that I am certain

Sounds a very similar project to the 747-8i

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
If it wasn't, Boeing wouldn't be embarking on the project.

Hmm, see above.


The 77X has been discussed at length in other threads and it essentially comes down to weight, as things stand the A351 is going to be near enough the exact same size as the 773 but a lot lighter hence is able to use less powerful, more fuel efficient engines. This leaves Boeing with a couple of options, they can stretch and hope the extra space will allow it to compete, or they stick at the same size and try to reduce the weight allowing them also to use smaller engines. The evidence so far seems to be favouring the later of the two options, and despite what some on here will say, I don’t personally believe Boeing will be able match or even come close to the A351’s weight which is going to give the A350 an advantage.

There are always going to be compromises when upgrading an existing airframe, if not then everyone would still be flying re-hashed 60's designs    . IMHO Boeing would be far better ditching both the 747 and 777 and then launching the Y3 to replace both.
 
NAV20
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:48 pm

Found an interesting tabulation of the (as currently envisaged) competitive position of all the aeroplanes in the sector under discussion.

I have no idea at all as to the 'provenance' of the figures in the tabulation; and, equally, no idea as how far the two main competitors will manage to 'hit their targets' with the various existing and planned designs/revisions. But I hope it's of interest and promotes lively debate, anyway:-

http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft/compare_A350_B787_B777.html
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Burkhard
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:07 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777 is still a very young and very advanced airframe.

To be precise, it is the youngest plane on the market that has overcome its teething age...

789 and A359 will kill the 77E, but the 77W and 77L are sane for the next 10 years...
 
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kc135topboom
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:16 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 2):
No new aircraft kills another. Accountants kill aircraft programs.

Correct.

Quoting autothrust (Reply 8):
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350.

Rubbish, the A350 will feature the largest all-composite wings ever made, the most advanced avionics

Are you forgetting the B-777NG debuts after the A-3510? That gives Boeing a better chance at even more advancements in engines, wing design, advanced materials, and avionics. The A-3510 design is approaching design freeze within the next year or so. Boeing's design of the B-777NG is just beginning (more or less), and they are still talking to the airline customers, engine companies, suppliers, ect.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 9):
The 77X has been discussed at length in other threads and it essentially comes down to weight, as things stand the A351 is going to be near enough the exact same size as the 773 but a lot lighter hence is able to use less powerful, more fuel efficient engines.

We don't know if Boeing will design a new composite wing, or not. We know nothing of the GE-90NX, or the proposed new RR Trent-800X engine for the B-777NG.

The current B-777-300ER carries 365 in 3 class, 451 in 2 class, and 550 in 1 class, max range about 8,000 nm and 2 X 115,540 lb thrust engines.

The proposed A-350-1000 carries 350 in 3 class, 412 in 2 class, and 475 in 1 class, max range about 8,400 nm and 2 X 97,000 lb thrust engines.

The B-77W has a cabin width more than 1' (305 mm) wider than the A-3510. Both airplanes are the same lenght, 242.4' (73.9 m), and about the same wingspan (B-77W is 212' 7" and the A-3510 is 213'), both carry about 44 LD3s.

Today's B-77W has out sold the A-3510 by more than 6:1 since the A-3510 was launched in 2007. The B-77W has sold at least 601 airplanes (as of Jan. 2012) since it was launched, and 570 of them since the A-3510 launch in 2007. The A-3510 has sold only 69 airplanes (as of Jan. 2012).

In fact the entire A-350 line-up has only a total of 561 since it began being offered by Airbus in 2006. The B-77W alone has outsold the entire A-350 line. To date ( as of Jan. 2012) the B-777 line-up has sold some 1,365 airplanes, more than 2.5 times the A-350.
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:38 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 10):
I have no idea at all as to the 'provenance' of the figures in the tabulation; and, equally, no idea as how far the two main competitors will manage to 'hit their targets' with the various existing and planned designs/revisions. But I hope it's of interest and promotes lively debate, anyway:-

http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft....html

I'm not sure how useful that's going to be as the data for at least the A35J (i haven;t checked the others) seems either out of date or inaccurate.

The A35J spec's posted here by Airbus are as follows;

  • Range.............................. 15 600 km (8,400nm)

  • Max ramp weight ............ 308.9 tonnes

  • Max take-off weight.......... 308.0 tonnes

  • Max landing weight ......... 233 tonnes

  • Max zero fuel weight........ 220 tonnes

  • Overall length................... 73.88 m

  • Fuselage width.................. 5.96 m

  • Max cabin width................. 5.61 m

  • Seating............................. 350 (3-Class) - 440 (High Density)
 
Daysleeper
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):

I’m not sure what your point is with this list as it’s a seemingly random collection of statistics / data.

Couple of points however, I seriously doubt that an extra 12-18 months of development for an engine is going to make a significant difference, if in fact any difference at all. It’s also way too early to be able to draw any conclusions in terms of sales considering the A35J’s configuration isn’t even frozen yet.

And yes, the 77W is a foot wider, which is undoubtedly a big advantage when chartered to National Eating Disorders Association.

[Edited 2012-02-22 07:48:59]
 
rheinwaldner
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 3:34 pm

In the recent past two times the following pattern has evolved regarding the upgrade vs. new decision:
"The challenged company has reacted with the same approach as the first mover did."

And two times it worked:
First mover: 787 (= new design); response that worked: A350 (= new design)
First mover: A320NEO (= upgrade); response that worked (?): 737MAX (= upgrade)

It has to be noted that in both cases the responding company tried hard to pursue the opposite strategy for a considerable time (an upgrade against the new 787 and a new design against the A320NEO) but they failed.

On the other hand the opposite approach has evolved one time:
"The challenged company has reacted with the opposite approach as the first mover did."

And it can be considered as failure (if only because of lost opportunities):
First mover: A380 (= new design); response that failed: 748 (= upgrade)

According to the lessons we can learn from above cases, the 77X will be a failure. No upgrade ever was able to keep in contact with a new design that incorporated the shift in technology premises as introduced by the A350 (as well as 787). By the way the NG is not a valid example because it was just fixing the 737 version which was developped in parallel with the A320 (that has emerged as main driver for Airbus' success).

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777 is still a very young and very advanced airframe.

As the A330 and even the A350V1 was. But no chance once the cards have been reshuffled on the technology front.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350.

Closer truth would probably be that every bit is penalized by the inherently larger MTOW requirements.
 
neutronstar73
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 3:41 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 14):
And yes, the 77W is a foot wider which is undoubtedly a big advantage when chartered to National Eating Disorders Association.

And yet, Airbus designates their A350 as XTRA WIDE BODY. And people on this board LOVE to say how the A350 is wider than a 787, how Airbus aircraft are always "wider" than Boeing and have wider seats (a silly claim), and is better because it is wider. And how the 747 is not "big enough" to compete with the A380. So if that's the case, Airbus must cater to the morbidly obese, right?   And how people prefer widebody aircraft. and on and on.

In other words, your point is nonsensical. KC135's point is valid...777 is wider than an A350. How that plays for airlines and passengers is anybody's guess.

But to the OP's main contention that either the A350 or the 787 will "kill" the 777? No. Hasten it's development or withdrawal from service? Maybe, but highly unlikely, if you listen to various sources (airlines, analysts).

Quoting autothrust (Reply 8):
Rubbish, the A350 will feature the largest all-composite wings ever made, the most advanced avionics, will get A380 technologies like power by wire, Brake to Vacate, NSS, 5,000 psi variable camber wing technology (like the 787) etc..

Pooh pooh Boeing all you want, but that link you posted specifically stated "Airbus took a long hard look the CURRENT STATE OF THE ART, THE 787." So it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Boeing will ADVANCE that state of the art when it improves the 777.
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 3:43 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 10):
http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft/compare_A350_B787_B777.html

The A350-1000 data are for the "old" (pre-MTOW and thrust bump) A350-1000, and there's no data for the 777X. Just be aware...
 
ytz
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:02 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Depending on the seating arrangement, the 787-9 can be a direct replacement for the 777-200ER as they offer near-identical cabin lengths.

With one less seat in each row unless you want to pack 'em in like sardines.

[Edited 2012-02-22 08:41:46]
 
Daysleeper
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:04 pm

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 16):
Pooh pooh Boeing all you want,

All he did was point out that the A350 has significant advancements over the 777, this if course is to be expected as its 20 years or so newer. I don’t see how this “pooh pooh” Boeing.

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 16):
So it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Boeing will ADVANCE that state of the art when it improves the 777.

I’d be fascinated to learn what you think Boeing are going to be able to do to the 777 in order to make it more advanced than the A350.
 
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seabosdca
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 18):
With less seat in each row unless you want to pack 'em in like sardines.

The same way the 747, 757, and 737 "pack 'em in like sardines?" The seat width of 9Y 787 is identical to the seat width of all those other aircraft.
 
CO787EWR
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:09 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 18):
With less seat in each row unless you want to pack 'em in like sardines.

US carriers do 9 across in Y for the 77E and have selected 9 across in Y again for the 787.

[Edited 2012-02-22 08:10:52]
 
mham001
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:41 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 14):
It’s also way too early to be able to draw any conclusions in terms of sales considering the A35J’s configuration isn’t even frozen yet.

OTOH, wouldn't it be equally premature to call an undetermined 777 upgrade "rubbish"?
 
UALWN
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:45 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The same way the 747, 757, and 737 "pack 'em in like sardines?" The seat width of 9Y 787 is identical to the seat width of all those other aircraft.
Quoting CO787EWR (Reply 21):
US carriers do 9 across in Y for the 77E and have selected 9 across in Y again for the 787.

Which means that either the seats or the aisles (or both) will be narrower on the 787 than on the 777. There's no way around this.
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hmelawyer
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:47 pm

The biggest questions I think that have to be answered for the 777X are: (1) what will be the real facts regarding the advanced Al-Li that Alcoa keeps bragging about being almost comparable to composites; and (2) how easily can they be incorporated into the 777X. We just do not know the answers to these questions right now (manufacturers may be closer to the answers, but I haven't heard enough to make any judgments).

One could assume that it should be easier to swap out these new compounds for current generation Al skins and components than the big changes needed for composites. If they even come close to Alcoa's talk, with the larger size of the 777 and a few additional years of development for engines (vs. the A351) and HLF (which Boeing is working on hard already for 789) it should be a competitive product even if the A351 has some advantages.
 
ytz
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:47 pm

Quoting CO787EWR (Reply 21):
US carriers do 9 across in Y for the 77E and have selected 9 across in Y again for the 787.

9Y on a 777 and 9Y on a 787 are not the same.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The same way the 747, 757, and 737 "pack 'em in like sardines?" The seat width of 9Y 787 is identical to the seat width of all those other aircraft.

Except that 12-16 hour flights are not the norm (or even possible...execepting the 747) on those aircraft. Also, people are bigger today then when those aircraft entered service. An 18 in wide seat for BOS-NRT is hardly a luxury.

Personally, I'll do my best to patronize airlines that offer a better seat. Either something like TK's comfort class or 9Y in economy. I'll be avoiding airlines that go 9Y on a 787 and give everybody a 17in seat for a 12 hour flight.
 
ytz
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:51 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
hopefully the 777 will be the first twin-aisle widebody aircraft to sell 2000 copies

The 787 may well do that without any NG version.
 
astuteman
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
But the 773 looks like occupying its unique 'long range/large capacity twin' slot for a very long time to come, on all available indications.

Unique? It's almost exactly the smae place the A350-1000 will occupy

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
The fact that Boeing are spending out on further 777 design development more or less proves that they currently see things the same way

It certainly proves they feel they need to do something to protect that "unique" space from the A350-1000.
Which in itself proves something, I'd suggest...

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
That gives Boeing a better chance at even more advancements in engines, wing design, advanced materials, and avionics. The A-3510 design is approaching design freeze within the next year or so. Boeing's design of the B-777NG is just beginning (more or less), and they are still talking to the airline customers, engine companies, suppliers, ect

Are you claiming that a "paper aeroplane" is going to be better than one approaching its design freeze.
That's a bit of a turnaround for you....  
Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 16):
So it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Boeing will ADVANCE that state of the art when it improves the 777.

In some ways yes.
However, there inevitably comes a point where the "advancement of the art" is more effectively served by an all-new aircraft.
And none of us know whether that point is sufficient for Boeing's requirements or not, yet. Not even Boeing

Quoting na (Thread starter):
Imho this could signal the end of the 777 and raise the chance for Boeing to built a joint 747/777 successor.

For what it's worth, I don't think the 787 and A350 will "kill" the 777 for good. i'm sure Boeing can make the suggested upgrades that would keep it in production for a long time to come.
However, Boeing may choose to take the path you suggest, and replace both the 777 and 747-8i with Y3.
That is another option that they have, besides the 777 upgrade.

Quoting zeke (Reply 2):
Accountants kill aircraft programs

The only thing that will "kill" the 777 will be a choice Boeing make....
And their accountants will look very closely at the ROI of their various options  

Rgds

Rgds
 
na
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:28 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777 is still a very young and very advanced airframe.

The 777 was developed in the early 90s, and by the time a NG might fly its a rather old type. It would be a stretch to call a concept almost 25 years old "young". I stick to it, by the end of this decade the 777 is an old type.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
and hopefully the 777 will be the first twin-aisle widebody aircraft to sell 2000 copies

Why? The 777 has brought the generic, boring twin-engined concept to the large widebody market. Hardly anything great as much as I can say from an enthusiast standpoint.

Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3):
Is the 787 even in the same league as the 777?

Both types are overlapping.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 18):
With one less seat in each row unless you want to pack 'em in like sardines.

You mean, like many 77Ws are compared to the 748I?
 
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kc135topboom
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 14):
And yes, the 77W is a foot wider, which is undoubtedly a big advantage when chartered to National Eating Disorders Association.

That comment was uncalled for.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 14):
I’m not sure what your point is with this list as it’s a seemingly random collection of statistics / data.

Of course you don't see the point. I was pointing out the 20 year more advanced A-3510 matches the B-77W in almost everyway for size and capacity, with not much difference in max range.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
According to the lessons we can learn from above cases, the 77X will be a failure.

Boeing is spending millions of dollars on a program you have already concluded as a failure?

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
No upgrade ever was able to keep in contact with a new design that incorporated the shift in technology premises
Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
By the way the NG is not a valid example because it was just fixing the 737 version which was developped in parallel with the A320 (that has emerged as main driver for Airbus' success).

Yes it is. The A-320 series came out just a few years after the B-737CLASSIC series. The B-737NG series came out almost 10 years after the A-320. None of those programs ran paralle with each other.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 19):
All he did was point out that the A350 has significant advancements over the 777

No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program. The B-777NG program will be the advancement in this class of airplane. I also pointed out the no airline is beating down John Leahy's office door to order the A-3510, while they are doing that at the Boeing sales office for the B-77W.
 
roseflyer
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:57 pm

I am going to try to avoid the typical fanboy rhetoric. The typical Airbus supporters say it's impossible for any derivative of a 777 to compete with the all new A350 regardless of what is actually done to the 777. The Boeing supporters don't agree with that assumption. Lots of good points and lots of really bad points as well.

Quoting na (Thread starter):
Airbus will surely not accept that Boeing revamps its old 777 to become a serious A350 competitor and will likely be fast with p-i-ps. Imho this could signal the end of the 777 and raise the chance for Boeing to built a joint 747/777 successor.

Airbus certainly doesn't want a 777X to succeed. Right now, I think it is too early to know what will be Boeing's next move. They could dramatically update the 777, refresh the 777 or go all new. I think what they do is what really matters. We can argue how great the A350 is or comment on how updates to other models have been successful or unsuccessful, but unless you analyze what is actually being planned for the 777X it is impossible to know. One upgrade/update is not the same as another. Do you spent a Billion on new engines or three times that with new wing and systems architecture? The result is vastly different. In the late 1980s, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas both refreshed their widebodies. The 747-400 was a huge success and the MD-11 was an equal sized failure. The 737NG with its new wing, fuselage and engines was a huge success. The A340NG was mostly a flop. The 747-8 is entering into service without the huge orders and fanfare which the more recent new planes have had.

It really depends on what they are planning to do with the 777. A light refresh doesn't seem like a very good option as there aren't many improvements that can be made from the 777-300ER that weren't already done a few years ago. The 787 and A350 bring some radically different architecture and materials.

A more radical change of the 777 could put many of those features on the existing platform. If they go to a new composite wing, then that opens up all the flight control architecture to incorporate all the features of the 787 and A350. Variable camber, droop, power by wire, active monitoring, no cables, load alleviation can all be put on the existing platform. 5,000psi might be a bit of a stretch, but could be possible. Electrically, anything can be done if they want to. If they see improvements from 787 system architecture, then we could get some major electrical revisions. Removing pneumatic power might be a bit of a stretch again, but could be retrofitted.

My point is that airplanes are very dynamic platforms. If the basis for the airplane is just the fuselage structure, then of course major changes could happen. That's pushing the envelope of what a 777X is and almost making it more like a 797, but retaining the basic performance criteria and taking many of the components and architecture that currently exist on the 777.

Another option is going all new. The 777 is a great platform and relatively new, so they could take many components from it. There's no reason why not to plagiarize the existing design. Boeing has done this for decades. The amount of commonality between the 707, 727 and 737 is significant. They can start over but still use much of what has been existing.

They'll work out what will work best for them. I think it is possible to take the 777 platform into a new generation. Despite possibly looking similar, they could completely reinvent the 777 and make it a viable A350 competitor. Or they could try to save money and reduce expenditure and try to maintain some market share as a stopgap to a new airplane.

I am eager to see what the engineering development teams come up with and what the board is willing to approve. I'm not that eager to see an A vs B war about killing the competition. I think what we do know is that the A350-900 and A350-1000 are targeting the 777 lineup and are proposing significant improvements. Saying that the A350 will kill off any form of the 777 is a bit of a stretch in my mind unless you actually analyze what is being proposed.

[Edited 2012-02-22 10:29:35]

[Edited 2012-02-22 10:30:11]
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:59 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program.

Except that the 35J can do it cheaper, which is the whole point.
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:02 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program.

Indeed, the A35j is going to have very similar capabilities to the 77W, where they will differ however is in how much fuel they burn while accomplishing the same mission. If Airbus meets their specification, then this difference could be as much as 20% which would render the current 77W obsolete.

And just because you keep on mentioning the sales isn’t going to make it any more relevant, The A35J specification hasn’t been firmed since you last posted regarding them.
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:54 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 32):
Indeed, the A35j is going to have very similar capabilities to the 77W, where they will differ however is in how much fuel they burn while accomplishing the same mission. If Airbus meets their specification, then this difference could be as much as 20% which would render the current 77W obsolete.

Airbus is actually proposing 25% fuel burn improvement over the 777. Although I haven't seen technical details on how that number is calculated.

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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
And two times it worked:
First mover: 787 (= new design); response that worked: A350 (= new design)
First mover: A320NEO (= upgrade); response that worked (?): 737MAX (= upgrade)

You're basing this theory off of two examples that hardly have enough data to even compare yet? At this point, for all we know, any of the above listed examples could pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat and be a complete runaway success far and above the competitor. Take the 777 and the A330 for example. Both of them experienced some of their greatest successes nearly ten years after the original model came out.

Also, it might be slightly more accurate to rightly compare the 787 to the A330 and the A350 to the 777. Airbus, is, in fact, studying an improved A330 to compete with the 787 where the A350 doesn't. Because of that, it's difficult to say with certainty the the A350 is the "response that worked." It is more or less the response that skirted direct competition with a new design (the 787), and more closely targeted an older design (the 777).

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
According to the lessons we can learn from above cases, the 77X will be a failure. No upgrade ever was able to keep in contact with a new design that incorporated the shift in technology premises as introduced by the A350 (as well as 787). By the way the NG is not a valid example because it was just fixing the 737 version which was developped in parallel with the A320 (that has emerged as main driver for Airbus' success).

On the contrary, the 737NG is the perfect example. Your quote says that "...no upgrade was ever able to keep in contact with a new design..." All variants of the 737 are descendants, or "upgrades" of an aircraft that originally emerged nearly fifty years ago, and a full twenty years ahead of the clean-sheet A320 family. The A320 also pioneered some very advanced technology in airliners such as FBW, yet the upgrades of the much older 737 have remained highly competitive even to this day.
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:07 pm

It is interesting as the 3510 gets closer, the more the 777 sells, 2011 orders were 202. That is 15% of its total lifetime orders, not bad for a plane "near its end".

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
Today's B-77W has out sold the A-3510 by more than 6:1 since the A-3510 was launched in 2007. The B-77W has sold at least 601 airplanes (as of Jan. 2012) since it was launched, and 570 of them since the A-3510 launch in 2007. The A-3510 has sold only 69 airplanes (as of Jan. 2012).

In fact the entire A-350 line-up has only a total of 561 since it began being offered by Airbus in 2006. The B-77W alone has outsold the entire A-350 line. To date ( as of Jan. 2012) the B-777 line-up has sold some 1,365 airplanes, more than 2.5 times the A-350.

I'm not sure if either can be considered a winner. The 380 has 253 orders total, with 175 in the last decade for an average of 17.5 per year. Backlog is 184 currently. The 748(F & I) has 106 orders (over 6+ years or 17.5 per year) and a backlog of 96. The VLA market has been pretty much 30 orders per year average for several decades.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
And it can be considered as failure (if only because of lost opportunities):
First mover: A380 (= new design); response that failed: 748 (= upgrade)
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:14 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 30):
I am eager to see what the engineering development teams come up with and what the board is willing to approve. I'm not that eager to see an A vs B war about killing the competition. I think what we do know is that the A350-900 and A350-1000 are targeting the 777 lineup and are proposing significant improvements. Saying that the A350 will kill off any form of the 777 is a bit of a stretch in my mind unless you actually analyze what is being proposed.

A great post again Roseflyer. The A vs. B war we sure can do without.  . The new developments will be very interesting to monitor.  .
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:19 pm

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 35):

It is interesting as the 3510 gets closer, the more the 777 sells, 2011 orders were 202. That is 15% of its total lifetime orders, not bad for a plane "near its end".

Exactly the same scenario we have seen, and are we still seeing with the A330. It sells like hot cakes even though the B787 is quite near.

And the A35J will start selling again as soon as the design is frozen and as soon as there is a reasonable time between ordering it and getting it delivered. That period currently stands at 7 years minimum. That is way too much for airlines who want to earn money now, or in the near future. So the B77W sells, and will do so for quite some years to come.
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:21 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350. It'll have new generation wings and engines, and possibly a new tail ... and that's just the beginning.

It will be mighty cool if Boeing puts the 787 section 41 and cockpit in it too. The look will cause upheaval at A.net. 
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:31 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777 is still a very young and very advanced airframe.

At the rate technology is changing today, I wouldn't call a 20-year-old design "very young". I better word is probably "mature".
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:52 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 39):
At the rate technology is changing today, I wouldn't call a 20-year-old design "very young". I better word is probably "mature".

I can agree with that, although, in the big picture, the 777 is one of the youngest *flying* designs in the commercial airliner market. The only complete clean-sheet airliners that are younger are the E170/190 family, the A380, the Sukoi Superjet 100, and the 787 (please feel free to correct me if I am mistaken on any of these). Virtually all other airliners, both mainline and regional, are older or descendants of older designs. I am not counting the A350, C-Series, or C919 as those are either conceptual or prototype at this point.
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 31):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program.

Except that the 35J can do it cheaper, which is the whole point.

That is the claim from Airbus.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 32):
Indeed, the A35j is going to have very similar capabilities to the 77W, where they will differ however is in how much fuel they burn while accomplishing the same mission. If Airbus meets their specification, then this difference could be as much as 20% which would render the current 77W obsolete.

As I said, that is the claim from Airbus.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 32):
just because you keep on mentioning the sales isn’t going to make it any more relevant
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 32):
The A35J specification hasn’t been firmed since you last posted regarding them.
Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 35):
It is interesting as the 3510 gets closer, the more the 777 sells, 2011 orders were 202.

I just don't understand why some here on a.net focus so much on the A-3510 when the airlines are not. The airplane has been offered for sale for 5-6 years now, along with its A-350 sister aircraft (well except for the so called A-359R and A-359F). Saying its design is not frozen yet is an undertstatement. The A-3510 has 60 orders, and QR does not like the 'latest and greatest' version of the A-3510. It seems to me Airbus had better do some talking to the current customers, or else the order book could drop to ZERO. It will not cost those airlines anything because Airbus has given the option to switch to another A-350 model.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 39):
At the rate technology is changing today, I wouldn't call a 20-year-old design "very young".

I would. The B-777 entered airline service in 1995. Since then only 2 new airplane designs and a few design updates have come from either OEM, the A-380 and the B-787. The B-737NG, B-747-8, A-345/6 and A-332 were all updates to exsisting airplanes. There is not much of a technology gap between the B-777 and the A-380 and in fact the laters versions of the B-777, the F, L, and W are more advanced than the current A-380 (which has an update coming out next year in the form of an IGW). The B-773 model and the A-388 model are about the same level of technology.

Now if you look at the leap in technology between the B-777/A-380 and the B-787, that is huge. The A-350, when it eners service will be about the same level of technology as the B-787, save the bleedless technology.
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:04 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
As I said, that is the claim from Airbus.

Yes it is, which we have absolutely no reason to doubt. If you do then I’d be fascinated to see you explain how an engine that is both smaller and 20 years more advanced would burn more fuel.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):

I just don't understand why some here on a.net focus so much on the A-3510 when the airlines are not. The airplane has been offered for sale for 5-6 years now,

Well they are much more interested than they were with the 777 at the same stage of its development, as it didn't have a single order.  
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:09 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
I just don't understand why some here on a.net focus so much on the A-3510 when the airlines are not

That has been explained multiple times in many threads, and I am sure you have read it. But you are conveniently ignoring the arguments.

But I am happy to repeat my version of that reason, which is in line with many respected posters here, also the ones who might be a bit more Boeing then me.  .

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 37):
And the A35J will start selling again as soon as the design is frozen and as soon as there is a reasonable time between ordering it and getting it delivered. That period currently stands at 7 years minimum. That is way too much for airlines who want to earn money now, or in the near future. So the B77W sells, and will do so for quite some years to come.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
Now if you look at the leap in technology between the B-777/A-380 and the B-787, that is huge

That should be rephrased in: Now if you look at the leap in technology between the B-777 and the A-380/B-787, that is huge. The B777 is an old dog technology wise compared to the A380 and the B787. Not trying to insult the B777, but setting the record straight.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
The A-350, when it enters service will be about the same level of technology as the B-787, save the bleed-less technology.

That should be rephrased in: The A-350, when it enters service will be another small step ahead in several areas of the technology compared to the B787, save the bleed-less technology. Again setting the record straight.  .
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:19 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 43):
That should be rephrased in: Now if you look at the leap in technology between the B-777 and the A-380/B-787, that is huge. The B777 is an old dog technology wise compared to the A380 and the B787. Not trying to insult the B777, but setting the record straight.

Actually, I would tend to agree with KC135. While in reality they all three represent different stages of technology, the A380 shares more commonality with the 777 than the 787, at least in terms of major technological advances. The A380 is still a conventional metal airplane at it's core, albeit a very large one. The 787 and A350 are the game changers in technological advances in materials and manufacturing, IMHO.
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
That is the claim from Airbus.

Yep, every single number that is presented for the A350 is a 'claim from Airbus'. It hasn't flown yet.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
The B-777NG program will be the advancement in this class of airplane.

I'd argue that this is just a 'claim from Boeing'. What makes that more reliable than a 'claim from Airbus'?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program.

Using the above logic you could argue that the A351 will in fact, far surpass the 777's capabilities in every way. After all, the evidence suggesting that the A351 will have similar capabilities to the 777 are merely 'claim(s) from Airbus'.

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 44):
The 787 and A350 are the game changers in technological advances in materials and manufacturing, IMHO.

Well, I do believe I'm right in saying that the A380 actually utilises more composite materials (with regards to sheer mass) than the 787. GLARE is also used in the A380, I'm not sure if it is used in the 787?

[Edited 2012-02-22 13:30:21]
 
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 42):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):
As I said, that is the claim from Airbus.

Yes it is, which we have absolutely no reason to doubt. If you do then I’d be fascinated to see you explain how an engine that is both smaller and 20 years more advanced would burn more fuel.

I don't think fuel burn is the question (it is pretty apparent it will be less), but rather what capabilities will the A350-1000 have? Airbus has changed the configuration from initially proposed. Two of the four customers have voiced criticism over it and a third has reduced its order. I think there are a few too many questions about what that plane will be to say it will kill off the 77W or a 777X.

Emirates intended the A350-1000 to replace its 777-300s and it should do a great job of that, but Airbus seems to want to take on the 777-300ER. That's where there's more speculation on my part. Will the A350-1000 or would a 777X be the more popular larger twin? The projections of the 777X is that they are sizing it above the A350-1000, just like how Airbus sized the A350-900 sweetspot above the 787-9 so that they don't directly compete. My opinion is that is a smart idea. 787-A350-777-A380 as the primary widebodies in production in 10 years. None of them directly competing against each other and no one killing anything.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 42):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 41):

I just don't understand why some here on a.net focus so much on the A-3510 when the airlines are not. The airplane has been offered for sale for 5-6 years now,

Well they are much more interested than they were with the 777 at the same stage of its development, as it didn't have a single order.

I also wonder why there is so much attention given to the A350-1000 vs 77W debate. The real market for the A350 is for the A350-900 vs 777-200 debate. That's what Airbus is focusing on and that is what airlines are ordering. It's very fuzzy from both Airbus and the airlines about what will happen with the A350-1000. But the A321 and 737-900ER also get more attention on this forum than they would if you look at the fact that they are small segments of their families which are dominated by the 738 and A320 respectively. Maybe it is because photographers prefer to look at longer planes? (Joking)

[Edited 2012-02-22 13:41:54]
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:39 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 5):
The 777X, aside from having a metal fuselage, will be every bit as advanced as the A350. It'll have new generation wings and engines, and possibly a new tail ... and that's just the beginning

Funny how A350 Mk 1 based on a 20- year old platform would have no change whatsoever against the "revoltutionary" [or evoltuionary?] 787, while a 777X based on a 25+ year platform would blow an 3510 completely out the water?? Sure, the 777 had a revamp mid 2000's, but looking at the 330 payload-range improvement over the years, Airbus hadn't exactly been sitting idle here . . .

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
Are you forgetting the B-777NG debuts after the A-3510? That gives Boeing a better chance at even more advancements in engines, wing design, advanced materials, and avionics

Due to Airbus ignoring the advances on the 787, they were very late in the game. Weren't the original incarnations of the A350 [Mk1, Mk2] supposed to EIS one - three years after the original EIS of the 787? Those couple of years did not really help them, it seems . . . .

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
Of course you don't see the point. I was pointing out the 20 year more advanced A-3510 matches the B-77W in almost everyway for size and capacity, with not much difference in max range.
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 29):
No, I will say it again, I pointed out the A-3510, for all its advances, just brings us back to the capabilities of the (now) 6 year old B-77W program

With all due respect, I do think that by stating it like this, you are totally misisng the point of the A3510. I don't think for a second at all that it's point is to outperform the 77W in payload range. It won't; not now, not in 2018, not in 2025.
It's point is to approach the 77W as closely as possible in payload range, and in doinjg so using 15-30% less fuel on trip basis, or per unit of payload basis. Off course the numbers vary depending on who you listen to, what metrics are used etc.

Off course the A3510 is pretty much a paper plane, and any fuel reduction claims must be proven.    Off course the 777X is much less an paper plane, and it's fuel consumption numbers are pretty much a given.    Unfortunately, Boeings track record on their last couple of widebody programs is not very good. I do hope they do a much better job on their next wide body programs [787-9/10, 777X].

And just for the record, I do think a future 77X will be very successful, and will certainly bring 777 total sales over 2000. In fact, 2500-3000 might be a more appropraite prediction. I just don't believe for a second that it will kill an A3510.    Both will certainly have their place in the market, which will be large enough for them to co-excist successfully. Off course, competition will be fierce full, with lot's of exciting sales opportunities to come. Looking very much forward to that!  

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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:39 pm

Quoting U2380 (Reply 45):
Well, I do believe I'm right in saying that the A380 actually utilises more composite materials (with regards to sheer mass) than the 787. GLARE is also used, I'm not sure if it is used in the 787?

Well, that may be true, but that's a bit like saying the Willis (Sears) Tower has more glass than the Crystal Cathedral. The A380 uses about 20% composites, and the 787 is about 50% composites. Like I said before, the 777, A380, and 787 really all fit in their own spheres as far as technology. It's tough to really group two of them together.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 46):
But the A321 and 737-900ER also get more attention on this forum than they would if you look at the fact that they are small segments of their families which are dominated by the 738 and A320 respectively.

Part of it could be that the market for the 737-900ER and the A321 (as well as future MAX and NEO equivalents), is rapidly growing as they are they closest replacements for the niche 757 that will begin accelerating retirements this decade and next.
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What If 787 And A350 Kill The 777? (Part 1)

Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 44):
The A380 is still a conventional metal airplane at it's core, albeit a very large one.

It holds more CFRP by weight then the B787. Has the largest and most advanced CFRP wing-box. Has superior aerodynamics on a level the B777 does not posses, has quite a step ahead more modern engines then the B77W. It had the 5,000 psi hydraulics before the B787, had the higher cabin pressure and humidity before the B787, has brake to vacate, has GLARE in use, etc, etc, etc, Now the B787 also has some very advanced things up her sleeve, but both are far ahead from a technological point of view compared to the B77W. And the B77W is already the first NG version of the original B777 with which it shares a whole lot. Which was designed in the late eighties and early nineties.

Quoting U2380 (Reply 45):
Well, I do believe I'm right in saying that the A380 actually utilises more composite materials (with regards to sheer mass) than the 787. GLARE is also used in the A380, I'm not sure if it is used in the 787?

Indeed, which clearly puts the A380 much closer or even with the B787 from a technological point of view. The B777 as good as she is, just like the A330, is technological quite some steps behind. Which is normal for an almost 20 years old plane which entered service in 1994 or 1995.  .

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