Airliners.net

I believe it was 2008 when it hit above $150.00 a barrel. IF it goes that high again, what will happen this time? Delta and United should be able to absorb it with their merged airlines with capacity cuts. What about US Air and American? Will this lead to a merger? What about Airlines like SWA and Spirit? Spirit cut employees and slowed down deliveries last time. Last but not least, would it be the nail in the coffin for the 50 seat jet?

You mention the US domestic market. But what about those very long flights operated in other areas of the world. TG has already announced the ending of non-stop BKK-LAX flights at the end of April.

So will SQ continue with SIN to LAX/EWR should the oil price rise through US$150 a barrel ? What about those long range flights operated by EK ex-DXB to the US and Latin America ?

The answer to the OP title is quite simple. Very high.

It's a matter of when, though, that complicates things.

You see, we already know that the oil reserves on our planet are finite, and that actually creating crude oil would cost more than finding alternative sources of energy. We also know that oil as an energy is terrible for our planet, i.e. climate change, even if some (mostly American) people seem to turn a blind eye on what is widely accepted in the world as fact.

When, in the sense that there's no real way to know WHEN the prices of oil will be high enough for people to strop travelling and for governments to really push research for new, better, more efficient, less polluting alternative sources of energy. One thing is for certain though. These prices WILL reach an impossibly high level.

I think this answers the general question. What effects this will have on which companies first, though, is a question I can't answer, but I'm sure there's plenty of people on A.net that can.

Very very very high. Very very very very very high.

No doubt about it. Iran could shut down the straits of Hormuz tomorrow (though, no doubt that would provoke Military action by the US et al.).

Maybe the airlines should merge with the oil companies to help control fuel costs.   

Someone bold should start talking about alternative ways of powering flight. CO did tests with Alge fuel mixes and so did VA. I guess hydrogen is out?

Quoting af1624 (Reply 2): there's no real way to know WHEN the prices of oil will be high enough for people to strop travelling

Actually it's very easy. You look at the elasticity of demand, in the case of prices today we can look back at the price shock of 2008 to find out exactly what the impacts of high fuel prices are on demand.

What we will likely see is business passengers willing to put up with higher fares while leisure passengers will delay booking flights or look at alternative modes of travel (assuming cross price elasticity warrants the switch to a substitute mode).

Quoting LOWS (Reply 3): Someone bold should start talking about alternative ways of powering flight. CO did tests with Alge fuel mixes and so did VA. I guess hydrogen is out?

I'll put my money on GTL which has been successfully tested by both Qatar and United on commercial flights. Seeing as the US is awash with cheap natural gas it's only a matter of time before they start processing mass quantities into fuel similar to what Shell is doing in the Middle East. Algae is a nice idea and the technology improves every day but still too expensive at crude prices under US$250/barrel...unless governments subsidize.

Quoting LOWS (Reply 3): Maybe the airlines should merge with the oil companies to help control fuel costs

Wasn't SRB banging on about doign something like that in 2008?

I am certain that what we are seeing is an artificial price and not the real bank. The real price of oil still hovers around 80-100USD. For the same reason, I do not expect to see the price go beyond USD150/barrel. At that point, the price would be no longer sustainable and the bubble will burst. But one thing is certain, if it hits USD145+, then it's going to remain that way for a long time. Possibly even longer than the 2008 peak.

As high as futures analysts want it to go. There is more oil being produced now than the last big scare tactics. Boeing needs to work on a frame than runs on potatoes.   

Quoting LOWS (Reply 3): Someone bold should start talking about alternative ways of powering flight. CO did tests with Alge fuel mixes and so did VA. I guess hydrogen is out?

Hydrogen is very much in:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Phantom_Eye

Tom.

If Israel chooses to bomb Iran (or anyone else) then VERY high indeed $150-200/bbl range. $4-5/gal gas in the US.

Prices towards $200-250/bbl are not sustainable long term, because demand would be grossly impacted. But, a military strike on Iran would erode 3-4 million barrels/day of ~85-95mb/d of crude oil from the world market. Pretty significant in a tight market. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz even for 1 month, it would prevent some ~15+ million barrels/day from reaching markets, which would be most catastrophic. I wouldn't even speculate about price, but the global economy would be severely impacted negatively. Because industrialized oil importers would not be able to rely on timely deliveries of the energy which runs their economies.

I was informed by a journalist, take from it it what you will, who did a story on the oil industry. He said that there is a correlation between the price of oil and it's bearing on the long term projections of how much recoverable oil there is for future consumption. We may or may not have past peak oil, OPEC will never say officially. If we have, it will become increasingly harder to recover oil from harder to get at places, hence the push for floating drilling platforms, drilling deep sea and the on going exploration in the artic, or so they say. A high oil price helps fund these extremely expensive, risky, cutting edge technology endeavours, but If the price of oil remains low the incentive to explore for oil in these hard to get at places lowers the return on investment.

Even though demand may be lower during a ressession, the above example may be one contributing factor to a sustained higher price.

The irony is that we will never run out of oil, by the time we transition to a full Hydrogen, Fusion, Renewables based energy economy the cost of getting at it will by then be prohibitively expensive.

CK