SANFan
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Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:21 am

Since the original thread has surpassed 250 posts, I thought it time to start a new one. I'm hoping and expecting there will be news to report here soon...

For those looking for background on this topic, the first thread can be found here:
Eight More DCA Beyond Perimeter Slots In New Bill (by md3 Jan 31 2012 in Civil Aviation)

bb
 
D L X
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:59 pm

SANfan said:

Quote:
And assuming UA picks SFO, wouldn't it be much easier to fly UA from DCA to SFO to Asia? You would be on *A and the same carrier all the way to Asia...

The thing is, I'm a Chairman on US. I'm a bupkis on UA. I want to be treated well as far as I possibly can. UA has shown me time after time that the best they will do for me is put me in Economy-minus.
 
SouthernDC9
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:26 pm

So am I correct in thinking that US, UA, DL and AA don't have to apply for anything per se - they just basically have to announce how they plan to use the slots? Any thoughts/info on when such announcements might be made? As long as we've been talking about it on here, I'm sure the airlines have made some plans and are ready to get these flights going (and when can the flights begin?)
What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 2):
So am I correct in thinking that US, UA, DL and AA don't have to apply for anything per se - they just basically have to announce how they plan to use the slots? Any thoughts/info on when such announcements might be made? As long as we've been talking about it on here, I'm sure the airlines have made some plans and are ready to get these flights going (and when can the flights begin?)

You might want to skim through the final posts of the previous thread as your questions were discussed there. (You are right about the Big 4; as far as I know, it's just advise and fly...)

I will say that I was up bright and early this morning checking Docket 29 to see if anyone had made a move yet. Nope.

I also wondered on the other thread if everyone would wait until the last minute (March 12), kind of like they did on the LGA/DCA slot bidding battle. It's impossible to guess what strategies the various cx will use this time, and why.

I will try to monitor the Docket as closely as I can and will certainly post any news as soon as possible.

Still with   ...

bb
 
point2point
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:44 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I will say that I was up bright and early this morning checking Docket 29 to see if anyone had made a move yet. Nope.
Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I will try to monitor the Docket as closely as I can and will certainly post any news as soon as possible.

LOL......... Maybe change your screen name to DCAFan?

But anyway, I will be guilty of waiting for your postings....


 
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:48 pm

Sorry, SANFan...you were right in the previous thread in pointing out that an incumbant only gets one new r/t slot. I meant that if both AA and DL both started LAX-DCA that AS would likely code-share with both.

I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX, US for SFO and DL for LAX. That leaves SAN, OAK, SJC, PDX, SAT and anywhere else beyond-pertimeter for everyone else.

VX goes for SFO and LAX (regardless of the big four...where else could they go that makes sense?) and gets SFO. AS goes for PDX, SAN and SJC and gets PDX. WN goes for SAT, SAN and SJC....they get SAN. B6 goes for SAT and gets it. SJC is left out...y'all have to drive the 101 to SFO.

Everyone else gets left out. F9 is just plain shaky and DEN is already well-served to DCA. NK is too often in the dog-house with the DOT so this would be their comeuppance if they applied for anything. It doesn't really fit G4's business plan (2x weekly from FAT?). If WS or AC were awarded a slot to Western Canada the other carriers would be apopleptic.

[Edited 2012-02-27 09:43:34] (sorry for the edits!)

[Edited 2012-02-27 09:44:28]
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:30 pm

Quote:
[from previous thread] Is US the only airline who would consider SAN in the first round? I could see them choosing the star hubs instead maybe no one will take SAN first round?

US handles a *huge* amount of traffic out of SAN. But most of their transcons from CLT and PHL stop at PHX on the way to SAN to pick up connecting traffic from all over the southwest.

A nonstop DCA-SAN flight would run contrary to the way they've chosen to serve SAN
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX, US for SFO and DL for LAX. That leaves SAN, OAK, SJC, PDX, SAT and anywhere else beyond-pertimeter for everyone else.

VX goes for SFO and LAX (regardless of the big four...where else could they go that makes sense?) and gets SFO.

Hi 'Flyer! Thanx for the clarification and glad to see you still watching this unfold.

So you're saying here that after SFO gets 2 of the Big 4, the DOT will give SFO ANOTHER carrier? I would find that hard to accept. LA and SF would both end up with 3 flights on 3 separate cx? Considering other cities that would get nothing, that sounds a bit lopsided to me and I think the DOT would come under a lot of pressure for that decision.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
AS goes for PDX, SAN and SJC and gets PDX. WN goes for SAT, SAN and SJC....they get SAN. B6 goes for SAT and gets it. SJC is left out...y'all have to drive the 101 to SFO.

And Austin, actually the 4th largest market to DCA without current service, goes home empty? This would anger a lot more folks -- including Texas Congresspeople -- than SJC not getting a flight...

I could see B6 applying for, and getting, AUS, WN taking SAT, and I'm sorry but I can honestly see AS winning SAN. (These picks are based on your assumptions of the Big 4 choices which I don't necessarily agree with.) I know you (and others) and I (and others) don't agree on PDX being a shoe-in for winning one of the Final 4 but I keep looking at the numbers (that I can see), and levels of current service, and actual traffic between the Rose City and DC and I am just not convinced.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
Everyone else gets left out. F9 is just plain shaky and DEN is already well-served to DCA. NK is too often in the dog-house with the DOT so this would be their comeuppance if they applied for anything. It doesn't really fit G4's business plan (2x weekly from FAT?). If WS or AC were awarded a slot to Western Canada the other carriers would be apopleptic

Again, it depends on who applies for what routes. Who's to say that F9 won't apply for PDX, SAN, and ABQ? If NK applies for, say, Vegas...? And I still won't say "never" to the Canadians!

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):
US handles a *huge* amount of traffic out of SAN. But most of their transcons from CLT and PHL stop at PHX on the way to SAN to pick up connecting traffic from all over the southwest.

A nonstop DCA-SAN flight would run contrary to the way they've chosen to serve SAN

Summer service is generally at least 2x daily to CLT and 3x to PHL -- and these are usually op'd by 321s -- plus lots of PHX flights. I would therefore say that SAN is served pretty well from all 3 of US's hubs. And again, I will repeat what I've said many times: I feel certain that ANY of the Big 4 that might chose to fly SAN-DCA (inc US or even DL) would have no problem filling a daily flight, simply based on the local business/military and tourist traffic. Period.

So even though US is not a major player in SAN for a variety of reasons, they certainly are THE major at DCA and I think they would be successful if they should choose the route.

bb
 
washingtonian
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:11 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
B6 goes for SAT and gets it

B6 SAT? Why do you think this?
 
hmelawyer
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:13 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
B6 goes for SAT and gets it.

I find it very unlikely that if B6 is going to get a Texas city it will not be AUS. They already operate to six non-stop stations from AUS and DCA is a logical extension. AUS serves as a connecting point for some of their west-coast service to Florida and could do the same thing for D.C. They do not have any service to SAT and do not see them opening SAT as a station solely with the DCA flight. They would also have to add at least a JFK schedule to make the station worthwhile. I think AUS is much more likely.
 
GRUIAD
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:51 pm

Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed.
 
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:54 pm

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):

Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft".

I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757? Is it a weight thing?
 
atrude777
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:13 pm

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed.

Excellent, seemed to be an obvious one from the United Side!

I am surprised at the 73G choice of aircraft, but they know what they are doing!

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:13 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 11):

I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757? Is it a weight thing?

With a 757, I could actually see some folks shifting over from IAD. I know TWA used to fill up 757s to LAX even though AS now does that route with 73NGs, so this might be some kind of capacity-yields thing
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:20 pm

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed

I just checked the Docket and there's nothing there but thanks for reporting that, GRU'.

One down (without any surprise) and 7 to go!

  

bb
 
ScottB
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:32 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 13):
I know TWA used to fill up 757s to LAX even though AS now does that route with 73NGs, so this might be some kind of capacity-yields thing

AS uses a 737NG by necessity; they don't have 757's in their fleet. The only aircraft TWA had which could operate DCA-LAX non-stop was the 757 (I'm not sure their 763ER's could have done it without a weight restriction).

Quoting D L X (Reply 11):
I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757?

My guess is that they are choosing to start a new route with the smallest aircraft with sufficient performance. They can always upgauge if needed.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 7):
And I still won't say "never" to the Canadians!

I would say the Canadians are handicapped by one of the criteria: "the extent to which the exemptions will provide air transportation with domestic network benefits in areas beyond the perimeter"

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX

We've seen the former, of course. And anyone who understands AA's Cornerstone network strategy would see that the only Cornerstone hub outside the DCA perimeter is LAX -- so logically AA would choose to operate DCA-LAX.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
DL for LAX

Maybe DL goes for LAX and maybe they add a second SLC. I think both are equally likely.
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:43 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 15):
AS uses a 737NG by necessity; they don't have 757's in their fleet.
AS has both 738s and 739s in their fleet -- in addition to the NGs.

In spite of what we are told, the non-ER 739s can make it transcon since they used to fly IAD-SEA back in the day when AS had a station at IAD.  yes 

[Edited 2012-02-27 14:47:06]
 
Jonathanxxxx
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:49 pm

Couldn't B6 propose DCA-SJU? I think with the recent buildup it would be way more likely than AUS or LGB.
 
point2point
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:18 pm

Quoting hmelawyer (Reply 9):
I find it very unlikely that if B6 is going to get a Texas city it will not be AUS.
Quoting hmelawyer (Reply 9):
They do not have any service to SAT and do not see them opening SAT as a station solely with the DCA flight

Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

 
 
DualQual
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:23 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 16):
AS has both 738s and 739s in their fleet -- in addition to the NGs.

Nitpick-the 800 and 900 are also NGs. As is the 600.
There's no known cure for stupid
 
threeifbyair
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 16):
In spite of what we are told, the non-ER 739s can make it transcon since they used to fly IAD-SEA back in the day when AS had a station at IAD.

I flew SEA-MCO-SEA back in 2004/2005 on 739s. MCO has a longer runway than DCA does, of course, but it is a longer flight to SEA. Before AS acquired large numbers of 738s, the 739 had to do a lot of the transcons. Nowadays, the 739 fleet doesn't go east of ORD. When the 739ER is introduced, I expect SEA-DCA to be one of the first routes to see it - the capacity is desperately needed.

If AS wins PDX-DCA, a 738 is most likely, maybe a 73G. The difference in service levels between PDX and SEA is quite striking: AS has 3x daily SEA-ORD with a mix of 738/739 while PDX is 1x daily 73G, even though partner AA runs 4x daily 738s on SEA-ORD and doesn't serve PDX-ORD.
 
mikefrommke
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:58 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 18):
Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

I lived in AUS the last 3 years and drove down to SAT a handful of times for cheaper flights. Its only about an hour away in good traffic depending on where in the city you are. I'm sure that there is some traffic willing to make the trek up. Surprisingly despite SAT being one of the biggest cities in America, they don't seem to have a large portion of the population that flies on a regular basis.
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:05 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 18):
Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

Texas, to me, remains the big mystery in this case. Some speculators here on A.net don't even consider AUS and SAT in the race, instead talking about SLC, DEN, LAS or PHX, in addition to California.

I personally will be VERY surprised if at least one of those 2 large, growing cities in the Lone Star state doesn't get a gold ring out of this. For one thing, the Texan Congressional delegation has been quite vocal over the last few years, including sponsoring bills of their own to increase beyond-perimeter air service at DCA (from guess which cities in particular?) Given the very limited nature of the proceedings -- 8 flights total, about half of which will probably go to California cities -- I kind of doubt both SAT and AUS will get a flight. (Of course it also depends on how many cx apply, and for which cities!)

I would tend to throw my hunch toward the State Capital since it has probably higher government and business connections with DC, and a nearly focus-like operation by at least B6 (and perhaps WN as well?) SAT, OTOH, has a higher volume of existing O&D traffic and maybe more military travel, as well as a larger MSA popluation. A toss up? That may be up to the DOT to determine.

Your questioin about whether a flight to one city would also be used by those from the other is an interesting one which should be answered by a Texan! I can say that if I lived in SAT (especially the north side) and let's say Blue offered a n/s from AUS, and I liked (and used B6) a lot, I would probably make the drive for the nonstop. These days, I will do quite a bit to avoid connections!

bb
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:09 am

Quoting DualQual (Reply 19):
Nitpick-the 800 and 900 are also NGs. As is the 600.

With seating capacities of 119 (600) to 172 (739A)

quite a difference, yes?
 
atrude777
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:39 am

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 23):

With seating capacities of 119 (600) to 172 (739A)

quite a difference, yes?

Yes, but Seat Capacity does not determine that...

The Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 are all NG's.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
GRUIAD
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:39 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
I just checked the Docket and there's nothing there but thanks for reporting that, GRU'

It takes time for things to get uploaded to regulations.gov, should be in there by tomorrow morning.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:53 am

Quoting hmelawyer (Reply 9):
I find it very unlikely that if B6 is going to get a Texas city it will not be AUS. They already operate to six non-stop stations from AUS and DCA is a logical extension.

My bad...I was thinking of AUS the entire time but said SAT. AUS would be the logical choice for B6...they certainly wouldn't get the needed traffic out of LGB, their only major west coast focus city.
 
md3
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:22 am

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 20):
I flew SEA-MCO-SEA back in 2004/2005 on 739s. MCO has a longer runway than DCA does, of course, but it is a longer flight to SEA. Before AS acquired large numbers of 738s, the 739 had to do a lot of the transcons. Nowadays, the 739 fleet doesn't go east of ORD. When the 739ER is introduced, I expect SEA-DCA to be one of the first routes to see it - the capacity is desperately needed.

I have to say it, but IMO the 739ERs probably still won't be scheduled into DCA. Real world performance questions will probably outweigh the potential incremental revenue. That being said, I'd love to see it here.

I also think that the only applications we'll see out of AS would be a third SEA flight and/or PDX. There's nothing precluding a third SEA application and it would make a great case for a load of domestic connecting opportunities outside of the perimeter, unlike almost any other limited incumbent or newcomer. There's even precedent in F9 with DEN. AS is very deliberate with it's route planning. I can't see an application outside of the "hubs." And with the current LAX flight being an under performer despite zero competition, there's no way I imagine they'll be maneuvering for another.

BTW, thanks SANfan for keeping the thread going!
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting md3 (Reply 27):
I also think that the only applications we'll see out of AS would be a third SEA flight and/or PDX. There's nothing precluding a third SEA application and it would make a great case for a load of domestic connecting opportunities outside of the perimeter, unlike almost any other limited incumbent or newcomer. There's even precedent in F9 with DEN. AS is very deliberate with it's route planning. I can't see an application outside of the "hubs." And with the current LAX flight being an under performer despite zero competition, there's no way I imagine they'll be maneuvering for another.

I agree. I think AS would go for 3X daily SEA-DCA, 1X daily PDX-DCA or 2X daily LAX-DCA. I still think AS flights between SAN-DCA is a long shot. Prove me wrong, SanFAN!!! I think SJC-DCA is more likely than SAN. I think someone else like AA or WN will get the SAN-DCA route.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:32 am

For Delta i bet 2x SLC is certainly an option theyll consider first. This would offer time options to many cities and the current 757 does so well. They can connect to the entire Western US SAN SFO LAX PDX LAS with 2 time options then and LAX is about to be less of a goldmine

LAX offers a new city but AS already offers the route so how many other carriers DL thinks will get/take authorities is a factor. LAX is riskier thats for sure.

If AA does a beyond perimeter and LAX is not i will be genuinely shocked and amazed.
 
FutureUScapt
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:36 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 29):
They can connect to the entire Western US SAN SFO LAX PDX LAS with 2 time options then and LAX is about to be less of a goldmine

Yes, but there are already several connecting options to any large city via ATL, DTW, or MSP in addition to SLC.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:37 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 28):
I still think AS flights between SAN-DCA is a long shot. Prove me wrong, SanFAN!!!

Not SANFan but I'll give it a go!   Both SAN and SJC are where you'll probably see the most future growth for AS besides SEA or PDX. SAN and SJC are both vying to be AS's fifth biggest station. That said, I think SJC stands a good shot for an AS application. PDX is probably their first choice, then SJC and then SAN. I don't think you'll see LAX or a third SEA flight. While they'd love another SEA flight I think the application process is weighted towards new service from an unserved market.
 
Coronado990
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 28):
I think SJC-DCA is more likely than SAN.

Think Naval port.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 28):
I think someone else like AA or WN will get the SAN-DCA route.

Don't count B6 out of this route either. It would give B6 a solid BOS/JFK/DCA combination out of SAN. They did serve SAN-IAD at one time so they must see something there.
Uncle SAN at your service!
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:49 am

Quoting md3 (Reply 27):
I have to say it, but IMO the 739ERs probably still won't be scheduled into DCA. Real world performance questions will probably outweigh the potential incremental revenue.

That's a very gentle way to put it. A 739ER is a runway pig, mostly because it requires a very gentle rotation angle. It couldn't fly out of DCA's short runway loaded with fuel for a SEA flight unless it were almost empty.

The 738 is the right AS (and probably UA, for that matter) aircraft for DCA transcons.
 
SYfan100
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:07 am

For the longest time I always thought there should be more current slot routes available from California/etc states going to DCA because there is a demand.
As for who should be flying those routes I think what needs to be looked at is not just the current big guys who have been around for over 50 years, but also the newer guys like SunCountry, Jet Blue.
If your going to have 8 more slots then you need to let everyone included in the chance to get a slot.
And when you look at those various applications with the routes take a good look at where is the demand at? As for example maybe you could fill a Boeing 737-800 out of Ontario on a daily basis because those people don't like going to LAX!
Maybe you could fill a Boeing 737-800 going from Oakland to DCA on a daily basis?
SanDiego to DCA? Portland (Oregon) to DCA? Phoenix (Gateway) to DCA? Spokane to DCA? Sacramento to DCA?
Sometimes you need to take a look outside of the usual box when it comes to different routes. If there is a real demand then give that airline that particular slot.
 
point2point
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:15 am

Quoting SYfan100 (Reply 34):
Sometimes you need to take a look outside of the usual box when it comes to different routes. If there is a real demand then give that airline that particular slot.

Under the current setting, I have a feeling that the demand for DCA slots from anywhere outside of the perimeter is there, and from just about anywhere would be profitable. I think though that the airlines are looking at where they will be the most profitable......



 
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:24 am

Quoting Coronado990 (Reply 32):
Think Naval port.

Good point. I've worked many DCA flights....they are filled with politicians & staff, civil servants, military, lobbyists, businesspeople and tourists. A strong military presence in SAN gives that market a potential leg-up over others such as PDX, SJC, AUS or SAT.
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:32 am

Let's remember something about AS and these proceedings. AS will not decide what route they will serve -- the DOT will. In fact, the DOT will decide whether AS gets anything. AS will, of course, apply for the potential routes they would like to get but that's as far as it goes; the rest is out of their hands.

To me, the question is, does AS only apply for 2 or 3 routes, or do they apply for whatever they think has a chance of getting accepted by the DOT? It will obviously depend on what the Big 4 do; UA has already spoken so we hopefully now will see what AA, DL and US do. Then AS will have a big strategic decision to make.

Let's say SAN does not get picked by any of the Big 4. (A tragedy, but a possibility nonetheless...   ) Does AS NOT apply for SAN? Do they just submit PDX and SJC? The strategy is obviously different if SAN has already gotten the nod before the Final 4 battle begins. Because, despite what some seem to think, I am certain that AS is interested in SAN-DCA...

AND if AS applies for SAN, PDX, SJC, etc., and none of the BIG 4 have already selected SAN, it's very possible that the DOT might give them SAN instead of any of their other choices. I'm just sayin', remember who will ultimately decide.

  

bb
 
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RWA380
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:41 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 7):
I know you (and others) and I (and others) don't agree on PDX being a shoe-in for winning one of the Final 4 but I keep looking at the numbers (that I can see), and levels of current service, and actual traffic between the Rose City and DC and I am just not convinced.
AS starting DCA-PDX if given a slot exemption, means much more than O/D numbers, AS is PDX's largest carrier, AS is very loyal and dedicated to PDX, locals love AS, so do local politicians, politicians that are involved with transportation on the hill, politicians that fly back and forth between DC and Oregon, currently with a connection or a trip to Dulles. I see AS going with a 73G if given a slot exemption for PDX, they will be the sole carrier on a route that can support the traffic, especially with connections from MFR, EUG, BOI, RDM.

[Edited 2012-02-27 22:42:57]
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
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RWA380
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:52 am

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed.

Perfectly timed for the bank of Asia connections out of SFO, and return as well, but I'd be surprised if they didn't do this. It's exactly what everyone expected from UA, I'm guessing a 738 will come soon. If US also does SFO, they can operate opposite times with evening departure from DCA, and morning return time, and code-share the route, they'd have it locked for both carrriers with US strong on one end, and UA on the other.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:58 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 39):
If US also does SFO, they can operate opposite times with evening departure from DCA, and morning return time, and code-share the route,

Pretty much as expected... and UA and US working together out of SFO seems the logical choice, perhaps denying VX. That leaves AA for LAX and DL for ???. Doubtful they'd want another SLC flight so that leaves LAX, AUS, SAN or SAT. Or...hmm...PDX?
 
redrooster3
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:00 pm

UA applies for SFO-DCA route, a new beginning? Did the bill get passed?
The only thing you should change about a woman is her last name.
 
SANFan
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:03 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 40):
That leaves AA for LAX and DL for ???.

...another LAX cx? With the huge amount of traffic between LA and DC, a third carrier wouldn't be overkill IMO. Of course I do have other ideas as to a deserving California city that any of the remaining Big 4 cx could select...  

  

bb
 
tommy767
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 13):

Forget the 73G -- UA's DCA-SFO should be operated by a PS 757 or at the very least an ex CO 757 with the 16 BF seats. A 73G or 738 seems like a low ball for the market itself.

I also predict US DCA-LAX with an A321
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 43):
Forget the 73G -- UA's DCA-SFO should be operated by a PS 757 or at the very least an ex CO 757 with the 16 BF seats.

A domestic First cabin is better for DCA. You need plenty of First seats to keep the self-important people happy, but they don't have to be super-luxurious. The right product is probably a regular domestic PMUA 752, but I can understand starting with a 73G or 738.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 43):
I also predict US DCA-LAX with an A321

An A321 can't do a transcon from DCA's short runway. If they do DCA-LAX, it'll be with an A319 or A320.
 
md3
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:38 pm

These routes are going into effect right as the DC summer starts kicking in. High temps and oppressive humidity are normal. The initial selection by UA of a 73G gets me thinking that there will be some more conservative AC selections to handle the short runway.
 
mercure1
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:58 pm

Delta choice is a SLC service.

Effective June 7.

DCA-SLC 0745-1022
SLC-DCA 1650-2255

Equipment mix of 737/757.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:18 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 46):
Delta choice is a SLC service.

No way! That's a bit of a surprise but it does give them 2x daily out of SLC. I'm sure that VX will now definitely go for LAX.
 
point2point
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:19 pm

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft".
Quoting mercure1 (Reply 46):
Delta choice is a SLC service.

ding ding ding ding ding.....

And next, AA to LAX, and finally, US to........ PHX?


 
 
CGKings317
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RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2

Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 46):
Delta choice is a SLC service.

Effective June 7.

DCA-SLC 0745-1022
SLC-DCA 1650-2255

Equipment mix of 737/757.

Very interesting choice on the part of DL.

What large-hub, within-perimeter airport will see a reduction as a result of this trade off?

~CGKings317  
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