kliakh01
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Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:54 pm

Have you seen Boeing Market Outlook 2010 vs. 2011?
There is a clear difference in pilots shortage figures forecast for commercial airlines:
- 2010: USA has bigger shortage vs. Europe
- 2011: Europe has bigger shortage vs. USA
Unfortunately Boeing doesn't explain this trend inversion.
Does anyone has any ideas? Its tough to imagine why the biggest air market as US will have a smaller shortage in pilots as compared to Europe.
Thanks,
K
 
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Semaex
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:26 pm

Shortage??

Someone please enlighten me. I thought there were billions of jobless pilots out there!
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kliakh01
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:27 pm

Sorry my mistake. Shortage by 2030.  
 
flymia
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:42 pm

Quoting kliakh01 (Reply 2):
Shortage by 2030.

Now it is 2030?

I have been hearing about a "pilot shortage" since about the year of 2004. Every place online and every study out there said in a few years there will be a shortage of pilots etc.. Still have yet to see it happen. 2030 would not surprise me though as many of the people who are capable and would want to become good commercial pilots chose a career which does not require food stamps for the first 5 years and little job security and benefits. So maybe in 2030 that is possible.

But I am sure they are betting on a massive increase in air travel, of course it will increase but it also may become more efficient. If you look at studies from 15-20 years ago passenger numbers now where suppose to be much higher. Look at the extra capacities built at airports like STL and PIT. Sure they are no longer what they are because of hub closures but everything in 1990 thought there would only be a need for more and more airports etc..
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golfradio
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:54 pm

Quoting kliakh01 (Reply 2):
Shortage by 2030

There are some members who will tell you that aircraft are going to be single pilot ops in 2030. So something does not add up in the numbers that an OEM is putting out.

I also wonder what they predict the oil prices and fares to be at in 2030.
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n6238p
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:51 pm

There's no pilot shortage, there's a people willing to spend $75,000 to train for a $20,000 job shortage.
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LOWS
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:02 pm

Quoting n6238p (Reply 5):
There's no pilot shortage, there's a people willing to spend $75,000 to train for a $20,000 job shortage.

When I was a student in the US, I knew people who were dropping out to go earn an ATP, fully expecting to become FOs in A380s upon completion. Not working for 9L flying IAH-MSY 30x per day in a Q400.
 
saab2000
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:18 pm

This will start to change this December with the first pilots at US carriers turning 65. There has been a 5 year window where everyone got older with very little attrition.

Nobody knows how much hiring will really take place because of course some airlines may just downsize as pilots retire. But there are a lot of airplanes on order at many US carriers and with all the retirements coming (mandatory) there WILL be movement.

I've been at my current 'regional' airline for 8 years now waiting for this to happen and have been a captain for 5 years. Hopefully there will be some opportunities for those of us who are experienced but don't have the internal connections of most folks hired over the past 5 years. Hiring for the past 5 years has been anemic at most major airlines in the US, with those being hired either knowing someone internally or having military experience.

There won't be a 'shortage' but movement at least is without doubt on the horizon.
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MountainFlyer
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:27 pm

I highly doubt there will ever be any sort of pilot shortage. Every time a pilot shortage is predicted the analysts seem to only think about two factors: mandatory retirements and airline growth.

Potential arguments *for* a pilot shortage:
-Disproportionately large number of pilots hitting the age 65 mandatory retirement within the next decade
-Airline growth (short-term only, clearly most analysts can't see past $100 oil)
-Skyrocketing costs of pilot training resulting in fewer new pilots entering the system

Potential arguments *against* any pilot shortage:
-Rising costs of fuel (not likely to ease in the foreseeable future) causing even more bankruptcies, mergers, and consolidations. (This reason by itself is enough to pretty much rule out any pilot shortage.)
-Aircraft automation; while I doubt we'll see pilot-less pax airliner cockpits anytime soon, given the huge success of UAVs in military aircraft, I do think automation will in the future somehow affect how many pilots are flying the skies. At this point I would say it won't affect the airlines so much as other aviation industries. We're already seeing it creep into aerial mapping and photography, and I would not be surprised if cargo flying started to see more automation before pax airlines at some point in the future.
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futureualpilot
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:52 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 6):
When I was a student in the US, I knew people who were dropping out to go earn an ATP, fully expecting to become FOs in A380s upon completion. Not working for 9L flying IAH-MSY 30x per day in a Q400.

What does this have to do with anything?
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ytz
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:23 am

The downsizing of most air forces is sure to help alleviate a good portion of any shortage in the near term.
 
Gingersnap
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:58 am

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 9):
What does this have to do with anything?

Has everything to do with the topic at hand. There are some people who are putting up many tens of thousands of their own/parents cash expecting a fantastic pay-off at the end.

Most don't expect to be stuck in small time jobs, working for a pittance which is what happens to make people.

Thankfully, that kind of practice doesn't appear to be prevalent in Europe as of yet, at least not in the UK.
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LOWS
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:13 am

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 9):
What does this have to do with anything?
Quoting Gingersnap (Reply 11):
Has everything to do with the topic at hand. There are some people who are putting up many tens of thousands of their own/parents cash expecting a fantastic pay-off at the end.

Thanks.

My point was that a lot of these pilots going to work for the regionals never expected to work for regionals. They expected to work for LH or UA. I guess the aviation schools don't really help but fuel this notion.
 
futureualpilot
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:45 am

I think you guys have the wrong idea of most of the airline bound student pilots here in the states. Nobody expects to waltz out of training into the right seat at any mainline. In my years of teaching, everyone I spoke with knew they'd have to get on with a regional and likely spend several years there before even having an opportunity to move on. Just my own opinion, but I wouldn't paint a sweeping generalization of flight training here in the states based on a handful of people that felt entitled.

I do agree about the flight schools not doing anyone any favors.




[Edited 2012-02-27 17:54:16]

[Edited 2012-02-27 17:55:10]
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saab2000
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:14 am

The schools are what you make of them. The best pilots will advance in their careers. European pilots have no idea how it works in the US and US pilots have no idea how it works in Europe. Just the way it is. I've done both.

There may never be a shortage, but movement will start this year.
smrtrthnu
 
flymia
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:25 am

Quoting Gingersnap (Reply 11):
Thankfully, that kind of practice doesn't appear to be prevalent in Europe as of yet, at least not in the UK.

There are plenty of very expensive programs like that in Europe too. The difference is it works in Europe much of the time. In Europe you can find guys with 500 hours flying 738s and A320s. In Asia low time guys are flying as in cruise pilots in heavy long haul airliners. Not that it is a bad thing. It seems to work pretty well in Europe, safety standards are great there also.

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 13):
I think you guys have the wrong idea of most of the airline bound student pilots here in the states. Nobody expects to waltz out of training into the right seat at any mainline. In my years of teaching, everyone I spoke with knew they'd have to get on with a regional and likely spend several years there before even having an opportunity to move on. Just my own opinion, but I wouldn't paint a sweeping generalization of flight training here in the states based on a handful of people that felt entitled.

I do agree about the flight schools not doing anyone any favors.

I agree. Most programs even focus and advertise as getting people hired to regional airlines. Anyone with the expectation of flying 737s or A330s out of flight school in the US needs a reality check. I think very few people expect that.
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aviateur
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RE: Pilots Shortage USA Vs. Europe

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:26 am

The only place any "pilot shortage" might somebody exist is at the regional carrier level. The major carriers have, and will have, no trouble finding any of THOUSANDS of highly qualified pilots to fill their ranks.



PS
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author