SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:43 am

Well, Part #3 is now well over 200 posts so how about we start anew?

I’ll attempt another of my summaries:
>AA, DL, and UA have selected and announced; US has not.
>The new entrant/limited incumbent cx have now officially placed their bids as follows: ACYVR, AS-PDX & SAN, B6-SJU & AUS, F9-COS, SY-LAS, VX-SFO x2, and WN-AUS. (The cities are listed in distinct order of priority of that carrier.)
>The applications, plus a bunch of letters of support, are available in Docket 29 at:
http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketD...SR;rpp=25;po=0;D=DOT-OST-2012-0029
>The next deadline is March 27 which is for everything -- arguments, counter-arguments, letters of support, whatever, and then, at some point prior to May 14, the DOT will pick the 2-to-4 winning carriers and their respective routes.
>And oh yeah, at some point, we expect to probably hear a route selection from US Airways!

And here's the link to Part 3 of this ongoing topic:
Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 3 (by SANFan Mar 9 2012 in Civil Aviation)

That being that, let’s get back to the discussions…

bb

(mod’s, please feel free to lock thread 3)
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 1:03 pm

For those that didnt see we do have some new DCA news or DCA effect. I dont care what press releases they send out i bet we see AA slim down a IAD-LAX frequency

DL SLC-DCA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
DL SLC-IAD JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

I still wouldn't be too shocked to see this come back in some way winter only unless delta thinks it can get them to connect no problems which you might be able to. I know its not the higher fare last minute DCA business and government purchasers but during ski season that flight has tons of skiiers and IAD is close to alot of families and skiiers and this flight has always done well in the winter. Between 2 flights a day to BWI and 2 to DCA now maybe IAD is just too much united country even for the winter.
 
D L X
Posts: 11663
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:57 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
IAD is close to alot of families and skiiers and this flight has always done well in the winter.

You know what's close to a lot of 20-somethings and early 30-somethings that want to go skiing? DCA. If it is true that IAD sees more skiing traffic than DCA does, I would chalk it up more to the fact that there are more flights to DEN and SLC from IAD than DCA, and not that skiers inherently prefer IAD over DCA.
 
point2point
Posts: 2080
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:36 pm

And now for the latest - "Today in the Sky" has a page where one can vote for the DCA route of their choice.

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...ld-you-pick-for-dc-reagan/647545/1

  
 
Mikey711MN
Posts: 1232
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:19 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:51 pm

Thanks for summarizing and for the new thread, SANFan. For sake of clarity on the following...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
>The next deadline is March 27 which is for everything -- arguments, counter-arguments, letters of support, whatever, and then, at some point prior to May 14, the DOT will pick the 2-to-4 winning carriers and their respective routes.
>And oh yeah, at some point, we expect to probably hear a route selection from US Airways!

...was anyone able to ascertain whether US is subject to any particular deadline to reallocate an existing slot to a beyond perimeter destination? In other words, do we know whether US needs to play a hand by (1) 3/27, (2) 5/14, or (3) ever?

If (1), then the US DCA-XXX offering of service is officially part of the DOT's determination.

If (2), then the US DCA-XXX service is somewhat at risk with a TBD set of 4 exemptions.

If (3), then US may make their choice based on the "new" DCA marketplace.

In my opinion, we'll either see something in the next two weeks or, if my summary of (2) is accurate, they'll just as soon wait for the 5/14 (or earlier) announcement of routes and cherry-pick accordingly.

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 1474
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
And now for the latest - "Today in the Sky" has a page where one can vote for the DCA route of their choice.

Those desktop PC's in Burlingame must be awfully busy this morning! Vote, clear cookies, vote, clear cookies.....
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:59 pm

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 4):
...was anyone able to ascertain whether US is subject to any particular deadline to reallocate an existing slot to a beyond perimeter destination? In other words, do we know whether US needs to play a hand by (1) 3/27, (2) 5/14, or (3) ever?

I asked those exact questions (same choices) on the previous thread and didn't get any responses or clarifications so I'm going with Door #3; I've read everything I can and there doesn't seem to be any deadline imposed on US at all... Most people seem to think US WILL select something, sometime.

I suppose the most logical assumption right now is that they will wait for the dust to settle after the DOT hands down their decisions, see what the field looks llike at that point, and pick either an already-served market, or a new one. They can always change it...

bb
 
Mikey711MN
Posts: 1232
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:19 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:54 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 6):
I suppose the most logical assumption right now is that they will wait for the dust to settle after the DOT hands down their decisions, see what the field looks llike at that point, and pick either an already-served market, or a new one. They can always change it...

It's an interesting approach.

On the one hand, US could've jumped in with the other three (AA, DL, and UA) and staked a claim on, say, DCA-SAN, in which case the AS, F9, and WN applications would all be likely a bit different. On the other hand, US appears interested in letting those hands be played first, which to me seems as though they could make a run at any route and make it work, i.e. since the marketplace has become incrementally more competitive with the proposal of new services.

If they were concerned about DCA market share, they'd probably announce something along the lines of AUS. It keeps WN out of DCA all together (subject to the DOT's consideration, of course) and effectively puts B6's application more heavily focused on caribbean expansion.

Most airlines, including US, seem to be more focused with profitability (as they should), which means the total picture is in play. For that reason, I'm not sure if we'll see a transcon as yields may be a bit depressed versus something shorter haul. IMHO, this leaves LAX and SFO as viable options as the markets are generally known and quite large, but SAT may be as viable as a shorter monopoly route.

Again, there is nothing stopping them - but for the logistical homework of scheduling and aircraft dispatch planning - from announcing any of these today: AUS, SAT, LAX or SFO. By indirect reasoning, then, I assume that their eyes are set on the other routes - SAN, PDX, or even LAS - but too much remains uncertain, i.e. presents risk, to the business case for any of them to be announced now.

So, if my analysis holds - and such armchair speculation can be quite fun! - they'll wait for the DOT's decisions on the filed applications and make an announcement for:
  • SAN, if AS gets only their desired PDX slot, i.e. not this route with the assumption that a WN/B6 1-stop routing is deemed sufficient by the DOT in this consideration

  • SAT, if AS gets both PDX and SAN n/s, WN/B6 gets AUS-SAN, and VX gets SFO

  • SFO, if AS gets both PDX and SAN n/s, WN/B6 gets AUS-SAN, and VX doesn't get SFO

  • PDX, if AS doesn't get this slot


I don't expect an AUS filing due to the likelihood of either WN or B6 getting this and either (a) the potential ground handling costs associated with the DCA flight being the only US mainline op there or (b) the lower revenue potential to fly a CR9 or E75 on the route. Subsequently, I don't expect YVR, SJU, LAS, or COS, primarily due to the relatively lower revenue or yield potential, depending on each market.

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:25 pm

I wonder how many thousand times sanfan is gonna vote himself for SAN in the usatoday poll? Jk lol   but if your commenting less on this forum we know what your doing
 
GentFromAlaska
Posts: 2666
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:21 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:08 pm

If grammar and spelling are in play Mr. Lougheed application for AS on DOT-OST-2012-0029-0115-2 failed to proof read his document. Two spelling and one pronunciation error is a short paragraph. Ouch!

"Plese consider allowing my airline to extend our great repuataion and service to DCA out of Portand Oregon and San Diego California! Thanks for you sonsideration!"

Sincerely, Jeff Lougheed
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 4467
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:05 am

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 7):
PDX, if AS doesn't get this slot

I don't see any way that US would ever fly DCA-PDX non-stop, they barely fly here anyway, a few flights to PHX, a flight or two to PHL, and a seasonal to CLT, PDX is the weakest of the markets you mentioned.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:21 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
For those that didnt see we do have some new DCA news or DCA effect. I dont care what press releases they send out i bet we see AA slim down a IAD-LAX frequency

No, we won't. Why? Very simple: the DCA flight is timed for the most important connecting bank and O&D bank for AA at LAX. AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple. And if AA were to eliminate any other frequency, then it would have a weak Washington-LA schedule.

Just like AA offers eight daily LAXMIA and one daily LAXFLL; just like AA offers ten daily LAXJFK and one daily EWRJFK; it will now offer three daily LAXIAD and one daily LAXDCA.

And why are you comparing the Salt Lake City and Los Angeles markets? There is nothing to compare.
a.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4603
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:33 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 10):
I don't see any way that US would ever fly DCA-PDX non-stop, they barely fly here anyway, a few flights to PHX, a flight or two to PHL, and a seasonal to CLT, PDX is the weakest of the markets you mentioned.

Before US pulled down the BOS focus city there were actually some fairly serious rumblings about starting BOS-PDX (this was of course in cheaper fuel days). It's not about PDX being a weak market for US. Load factors are fairly high - it's the stage lengths from the US hubs on the East Coast, in conjunction with fuel price that kill the yields and that's the reason that PHL and CLT service comes and goes in fits and starts.
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:40 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 8):
I wonder how many thousand times sanfan is gonna vote himself for SAN in the usatoday poll? Jk lol but if your commenting less on this forum we know what your doing.


LOL! Hey, so I took a few hours off today to go see my beautiful granddaughter! And that's much more important than fighting with people here on a.net!   And hey, btw, when I left this morning, there were 6 posts on this thread. Nine hours later, only 6 new ones?!? What've you people been doing all day!? I know, I know, voting and sending letters! LOL again.

You know, if I thought for a minute that it actually mattered, I probably would vote and send in packaged letters provided by the cx 24/7. (But I'm not saying there might not be an original document or two sent by me to the DOT, ummmmm, probably in support of AS's SAN application...)

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 7):
So, if my analysis holds - and such armchair speculation can be quite fun! - they'll wait for the DOT's decisions on the filed applications and make an announcement...


Like minds, Mikey'... Yes, my armchair is well-conformed to my body by now, and I do enjoy being there!

One unique thing that has to be remembered about US Airways and this discussion is that they are the King at DCA, with lots of connections available to MANY places -- like any other east coast hub (except for int'l destinations of course.) So theoretically they could pick TUS-DCA, or BOI-DCA, or any other small-market city and probably make it work pretty well. The DOT didn't particularly want this approach to these proceedings but they have no control over what US decides, or for what reasons. I know there are considerations like US's presence in the western city, equipment issues (as mentioned by Mike'), etc., but I'm just saying... (And I don't seriously think they would do this, but it would be easier for US to do than, say, AA or WN, or pretty much anyone else.)

And again, they can always change the destination! Over and over again if necessary! So whatever they do decide is fully erasable...

bb
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:04 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
No, we won't. Why? Very simple: the DCA flight is timed for the most important connecting bank and O&D bank for AA at LAX. AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple. And if AA were to eliminate any other frequency, then it would have a weak Washington-LA schedule.

Just like AA offers eight daily LAXMIA and one daily LAXFLL; just like AA offers ten daily LAXJFK and one daily EWRJFK; it will now offer three daily LAXIAD and one daily LAXDCA.

And why are you comparing the Salt Lake City and Los Angeles markets? There is nothing to compare.

Im not comparing the markets in anyway its the DCA effect of a new flight thats similar. You comparing JFK-LAX connecting two AA hubs or LAX-MIA two AA hubs is the flaw here.

Clearly you have some very strong opinions on this but that doesnt mean you know it wont happen. I forgot that you run AA so you can say they wont eliminate a frequency. I think its long term as in after this flight has started that AA finds it hard to fill both a 757 out of DCA and a 738 out of DCA at the same time. There is an IAD and DCA flight that leave at basically the exact same times. Cancelling the IAD flight at those times doesnt really weaken AAs time options nor is three frequencies that weak. AA already operates the smallest plane it has capable of flying this route on all IAD-LAX frequencies. They will be adding a 757 worth of seats they need to additionally fill at that time. AA can plan or say anything they want i just think the IAD flight over time at the same time will be the one to suffer from some severe fare decreases when they have a 757 worth of seats for sale out of DCA now at that same time.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1069
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:26 am

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
AA, DL, and UA have selected and announced

Yes, and their flights are already for sale. IMO, these airlines did exactly as could be expected. AA added nonstop service to its only cornerstone hub beyond the perimeter (LAX), DL bolstered frequency to its sole [domestic] hub beyond the perimeter (2nd daily to SLC), and UA added nonstop service to its largest/most important unserved hub beyond the perimeter (SFO). I would have been shocked to see any of them do anything else, and I'm sure all of these flights will do very well.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
US has not

Not surprising. I'm sure they'll be patiently waiting to see who gets what for the 4 new entrant/limited incumbent slots (if they must do something before the final decision is made, at least they'll get to see how much public support there is for routes to places like PDX, SAN, and SFO), and perhaps even trying to see how their legacy peers are doing in terms of advanced bookings. I'd say one thing is for certain - this slot won't be used for an additional (4th daily) PHX flight. Existing service to their sole beyond-perimeter hub can be upgauged if additional capacity is needed.

Since there will only be two daily flights to LAX (the existing AS 738 and a new AA 757), I'd say LAX is probably near or at the top of the list. Assuming a US DCA-LAX would have a UA codeshare, it would essentially be a hub-hub flight. The only other plausible markets from DCA for US, IMO, would be SFO or SAN. They are quite strong in both markets on their own merit, and can additionally tap into Star/UA FF loyalty with the codeshare. I highly doubt they'll use this slot for smaller markets like PDX or SAT where US is a relatively weak carrier...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
ACYVR

There certainly won't be much congressional support for this. I'd be shocked to see it come to fruition, especially when you consider the fact that there isn't any kind of established nonstop link between YVR and any D.C. area airport. Seeing as it didn't take UA long to bail on its recent attempt of IAD-YVR, I can only imagine the O&D between Vancouver and D.C. is quite low.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
AS-PDX & SAN

I bet AS will get a slot for PDX. I'm sure the good folks representing Oregon will do what it takes to make it happen. As for SAN, that's much more of a long shot - an LCC one-stop option (and perhaps a US nonstop) will probably take care of that market.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
B6-SJU & AUS

I'm not surprised to see B6 wanting to do DCA-SJU, but I do wonder how much support they'll get from Congress given Puerto Rico's obscure political status. Plus, the corporate lobbyists will probably tout all of the economic benefits of additional links to key business markets (PDX, AUS, SAN, SFO, etc.) rather than an overwhelmingly leisure market. But, we did see HA get a scarce HND slot for a route that really just serves foreign tourists. I have a feeling they might just get SJU..

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
F9-COS

I doubt F9 will get this. I imagine all of the other proposed markets have much higher O&D than COS. The government will probably question the airline's commitment to COS, which could just be a brief expansion experiment along the lines of OKC, MCI, OMA, STL, LAX, etc. Plus, F9 already has more beyond-perimeter exemptions than all other limited incumbent/new entrant carriers except AS, but that airline uses the slots to serve multiple markets.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
SY-LAS

I've heard the existing daily DCA-LAS flight (US) isn't all that great, despite US's tremendous feed and local FF loyalty. Is an additional link to Vegas necessary, on an airline of dubious financial strength that is virtually unknown on both the DCA and LAS ends? I would be absolutely shocked to see the government pick this proposal over other key unserved markets...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
VX-SFO x2

LOL, they won't get 2 daily flights, but I bet they'll get one. A well timed VX flight will help lower fares not just to SFO itself but also key markets like PDX and SAN  .

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
WN-AUS

Interesting that they chose this, over much larger "hubs" at DEN, PHX, and LAS, or big focus cities/secondary hubs at the likes of ABQ and SAN. I imagine this Texas-based airline has close ties with the Texan politicians that will be eager to gain a nonstop link to their capital. I bet this one will happen. We all know the government loves WN  .

So, in summation, I think we'll see the government pick AS-PDX, B6-SJU, VX-SFO, and WN-AUS. This appeases the congressional constituents from Texas, Oregon, and California. WN and VX can presumably take care of SAN, and it's quite possible US would start the route if AS didn't get it. Though, I have a funny feeling we'll see US jump on the DCA-LAX route.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:05 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 14):
Clearly you have some very strong opinions on this but that doesnt mean you know it wont happen. I forgot that you run AA so you can say they wont eliminate a frequency. I think its long term as in after this flight has started that AA finds it hard to fill both a 757 out of DCA and a 738 out of DCA at the same time. There is an IAD and DCA flight that leave at basically the exact same times. Cancelling the IAD flight at those times doesnt really weaken AAs time options nor is three frequencies that weak. AA already operates the smallest plane it has capable of flying this route on all IAD-LAX frequencies. They will be adding a 757 worth of seats they need to additionally fill at that time. AA can plan or say anything they want i just think the IAD flight over time at the same time will be the one to suffer from some severe fare decreases when they have a 757 worth of seats for sale out of DCA now at that same time.

You really think AA is going to have a hard time filling four flights to D.C. from its fourth largest hub?

And canceling the prime IAD flight absolutely hurts AA. Why do people forget that Dulles is a market itself? It's in Northern Virgina, and from LA in particular, there is a lot of defense and aeronautic industry traffic that is going not to downtown D.C., but Northern Birginia. What's AA going to tell those premium passengers? Fly United? Don't think so.

Not to mention IADLAX has a reputation among AA elites as the single hardest domestic upgrade. You act like AA somehow suffers on IADLAX. It doesn't. It has a solid 25% of the local market; it also is the second largest carrier on LAXDCA, with close to 30% of the market (AS has 36%). The services perfectly compliment and it will likely remain that way.

I'd agree that a temporary reduction in LAXIAD might make sense if AA decides to cut domestic capacity deeper as part of restructuring, because there will undoubtedabuse a lag between 2012 retirements and 2013 deliveries, but I see that as no different than AA taking a reduction in LAXMIA or SFOJFK.

The strategy to maintain four daily flights in this market is extremely solid and absolutely will work long-term. As AA develops LAX as a larger hub, it should aim to add a fourth LAXIAD.

[Edited 2012-03-16 02:17:20]
a.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 10:57 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple[/quote

and a few hours later

[quote=MAH4546,reply=16]I'd agree that a temporary reduction in LAXIAD might make sense if AA decides to cut domestic capacity deeper as part of restructuring

I think you realize what im saying plain and simple. Im not trying to give you a hard time   i think AA is very strong at LAX and we certain could see them grow more there it just might be a little too redundant and bad use of a plane.


We all think that US is waiting on the other slot allocations but i also wonder if they are using the time to see how much potential an AA merger could have? The article on the other forum AA is saying they would be open to a merger has to have them thinking about options. I still think DCA-LAX is pretty safe for US they have a large DCA base-its large o&d and either UA or AA have large LAX bases of flyers.
 
User avatar
redzeppelin
Posts: 903
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 4:30 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:43 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
DL SLC-DCA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
DL SLC-IAD JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN. Anybody have access to numbers? My instinct is that more PDX traffic might go through MSP, and SFO traffic might be more inclined to go over DEN or ORD. I have no idea about SAN. But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit.
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:56 pm

I'm kind of curious what sort of counter-arguments and rebuttals we'll see -- if any -- from the the cx involved in the hearings?

It's interesting that there aren't the usual numbers of overlaps and duplications of route bids here. So there isn't that much opportunity (or need?) for one carrier to tear apart another's application. EXCEPT that there are only 4 slots available so a carrier might want to try to get the DOT to not consider other applications for other routes in order to INCREASE the chances of their bid winning approval.

IMO, the only duplication here is AUS, despite some folks' opinions here that WN's and F9's applications, that include direct service to SAN, are in competition with Alaska's proposal for nonstop SAN-DCA. (Which they aren't -- apples and oranges.) But that doesn't mean that WN and F9 might not jump up and down a bit claiming that their bids ARE better overall because after all, they're serving TWO cities with 1 slot, etc., etc., And how hard, if at all, will AS counter-argue in favor of their nonstop bid? Hard to say but will intersting to see what happens.

I would be surprised if we didn't see at least some sparring between WN and B6 over their respective bids for AUS. It doesn't seem to me to be much of a contest really but I'll be curious to see if Blue sees fit to even take a stand on the issue. After all, they said they didn't even want Austin unless they got SJU first/also! You suppose WN might mention that in their argument???   (I'm afraid B6 might've painted themselves into a corner here...)

Beyond that, will VX, for example, come out swinging and try to convince the DOT that all these other bids are stupid and a waste of time and resources (well except for maybe 2 other routes) while their 2x SFO flights are the only sane choice? Will other cx file arguments asking why AC, SY and F9 even bothered? Or point out to the DOT that SFO already has service from UA so why should VX and more slots for the City by the Bay even be considered?

In the meantime, while waiting to see which airline might fire the next salvo, I see the "Dear Secretary LaHood..." count is at about 200 postings now and still climbing! It's possible that any airline arguments might just show up at the deadline (March 27) and not before but that would sure take some of the fun out of it! (That also asks the question, will we ever even FIND any airlines arguments in that bulging docket folder???) Very interesting stuff.

bb
 
User avatar
redzeppelin
Posts: 903
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 4:30 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:01 pm

I've browsed through the airlines' proposals in the docket folder, and I find it fascinating to see the mix of support letters included in the appendix of some proposals. For example, in the B6 proposal, they have 6-7 letters from Caribbean dignitaries supporting SJU service -- ranging from congressional delegates to local politicians to the SJU airport director -- but in support of AUS they include only a solitary letter from the Austin mayor. AS also has an interesting mix of support letters, including the Alaska congressional delegation that doesn't really seem to have a direct interest in the new service. I thought it was a nice touch for AS to include letters from their respective pilot and MX unions -- the current administration should appreciate that.

SY's proposal is the shortest of the bunch by far, and doesn't include any support letters. WN, F9 and VX did not include any support letters in their proposals either. I have no idea if the letters will be influential at all, but I personally thought B6 and AS both did a good job of finding important people to speak on behalf of their preferred routes. I already expressed my doubts about the F9-COS route, but after reading their proposal I can see that they put a lot of work into it and I'm not as skeptical as I was previously. It is interesting how they turn the arguement around and focus on the fact that WAS is the biggest destination market from COS, and avoid the fact that COS is relatively low on the list of unserved markets from DCA. It was interesting to see SAT come up several times in the charts in the various proposals. They all recognize that SAT is a major market. But the WN proposal has a chart that seems to explain why nobody proposed serving the route. Based on their figures, current yields on AUS-DCA service are 12% higher than expected yields for the DCA market, while yields to SAT are currently 6% too low. Like everything else, it's about the money. After seeing the proposals, I would probably pick B6-SJU, AS-PDX, AS-SAN and WN-AUS.
 
LAXintl
Posts: 20183
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
Not to mention IADLAX has a reputation among AA elites as the single hardest domestic upgrade.

It does ? Looking back at my statements, I can see I've flown 11 segments between the cities in the last year, and in F on all.

I have a harder time on LAX-MIA then ever with IAD.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 10:14 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 18):
Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN. Anybody have access to numbers? My instinct is that more PDX traffic might go through MSP, and SFO traffic might be more inclined to go over DEN or ORD. I have no idea about SAN. But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit

I think your assessment is sound, but I suspect that DL gets a lot of that SLC flight filled with O&D and connections to those markets that do not have MSP service or very limited MSP service. Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations.
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Fri Mar 16, 2012 10:32 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 18):
Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN....But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit.
Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 22):
I think your assessment is sound, but I suspect that DL gets a lot of that SLC flight filled with O&D and connections to those markets that do not have MSP service or very limited MSP service. Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations.

This is a good point 'zeppelin. I can see the numbers on all hubs' flights dropping -- DEN, SLC, PHX, etc. (And of course the other hubs will lose pax as well.) After all, a major purpose of these hearings is to get nonstop service to the largest markets from DC.

So will DL continue to need 2 SLC-DCA flights? That's the question. From my research, the O&D between SLC and WAS is not real huge -- it's about 430 pdew. Just remember, if they decide they don't need two flights in that market, all they have to do is change the destination of one of the flights from SLC to XXX! (LAX, SFO, SEA, SAN, or wherever.) Very easy fix for the problem.



bb
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 4467
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:44 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 12):
Before US pulled down the BOS focus city there were actually some fairly serious rumblings about starting BOS-PDX (this was of course in cheaper fuel days). It's not about PDX being a weak market for US. Load factors are fairly high - it's the stage lengths from the US hubs on the East Coast, in conjunction with fuel price that kill the yields and that's the reason that PHL and CLT service comes and goes in fits and starts.

I can understand in todays climate the reluctance of US to invest much at PDX, considering the UA codeshare. US has had a good chance at PDX before but haven't stayed long at much of anything from the purchase of PSA giving PDX it's first US flights. I just don't see the DOT not giving AS the PDX route, in fact from this point on, when listing our thoughts on these four route awards, let's assume DCA-PDX on AS is a given please. (EG)

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 22):
Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations



All cities AS can bring to the table via PDX or SEA, albeit a bit of a back track in some cases.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:52 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 24):
I just don't see the DOT not giving AS the PDX route, in fact from this point on, when listing our thoughts on these four route awards, let's assume DCA-PDX on AS is a given please. (EG)

Please explain the "EG". Sorry but I don't get that.

bb
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:20 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 24):
I just don't see the DOT not giving AS the PDX route, in fact from this point on, when listing our thoughts on these four route awards, let's assume DCA-PDX on AS is a given please.

While I agree that DCA-PDX on AS has a high probability of occurring, I don't think it is a given. AS has one major strike against it in this competition which is the fact that AS already has 3 beyond perimeter exemptions. Carriers like VX, WN, SY, B6 have none. Giving another to AS, while then depriving other carriers of having even one may give the DOT a bit of pause.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4603
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:42 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 26):
While I agree that DCA-PDX on AS has a high probability of occurring, I don't think it is a given. AS has one major strike against it in this competition which is the fact that AS already has 3 beyond perimeter exemptions. Carriers like VX, WN, SY, B6 have none. Giving another to AS, while then depriving other carriers of having even one may give the DOT a bit of pause.

Well, you also have to take into consideration the perceived value of the proposal. Carrier X which already has multiple exemptions and then proposes another strong one may well still win over Carrier Z whose proposal is inherently weaker.

We don't KNOW Alaska will win, but I think the probability is pretty high especially considering that AC has almost zero chance and a couple of other limited non-incumbents are banking on one-stop flights while AS has proposed two nonstops.
 
User avatar
redzeppelin
Posts: 903
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 4:30 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 4:47 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 23):

I have no doubt that DL will fill the second slc-dca flight, but the new potential service to the large west coast markets may be part of the logic in suspending iad. They are really just moving the iad flight to dca, which of course has less risk than a new new flight.
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 6:09 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 26):
AS has one major strike against it in this competition which is the fact that AS already has 3 beyond perimeter exemptions. Carriers like VX, WN, SY, B6 have none. Giving another to AS, while then depriving other carriers of having even one may give the DOT a bit of pause.

I certainly understand what you're saying but I can't help but believe (hope) that the DOT will find the destinations (markets) involved to be more important than who provides the flight or who has more exemptions. I would expect to see the "where" outweigh the "who" in this case. (And just to make things perfectly clear, I am talking about "where" involving comparable nonstop flights, and without consideration of direct, 1-stop, "continuing single-plane service.)" But of course we never know.

bb
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:34 am

For an airline like US this is exactly why they wont want another PHX flight there will be some reduced demand of course to hubs with more non stop major markets opening up and they already have enough flights to PHX.

For Delta this is only there second flight a day and the current 757 fills and often oversells with high fares. Deltas plans for this flight are for o&d and for connections to the smaller cities as people mentioned places like RNO, GJT, CD, SGU, GEG, BOI, LGB, ONT, BUR, OAK, EUG, MFR, RDM, SUN, and quite a few more in idaho and montana. These are the cities that Delta wants to connect thru SLC and the vast majority are higher airfare then the LAX, SFO, SEA, and PDX markets too. Deltas plan is to keep 2x SLC its not a placeholder its the plan and i really think there is almost no risk of this flight having a problem based on how well the current 757 does and reducing the IAD flight.

The more i think about it i think LAS might have actually have a chance. There is only one flight but the o&d is huge and they are a new low cost carrier to DCA. I wouldnt be too shocked if they won but i also would not bet on it. Its hard to know what criteria they will use so everyone is guessing how they will decide this. In a way its the most fair to give service to the largest cities and best connection hubs but in another way is it really fair to let one airline have potentially 5 round trip exemptions (AS) and deny others from even having one? Cases can be made for all and of course politics and lobbying will happen behind the scenes
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 4467
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:54 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 25):
Please explain the "EG". Sorry but I don't get that.

Sorry about that, it stands for Evil Grin....

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 26):
While I agree that DCA-PDX on AS has a high probability of occurring, I don't think it is a given. AS has one major strike against it in this competition which is the fact that AS already has 3 beyond perimeter exemptions. Carriers like VX, WN, SY, B6 have none. Giving another to AS, while then depriving other carriers of having even one may give the DOT a bit of pause

Even furthers my chain of thinking, that AS has developed a long term successful beyond perimeter operation, proving they can do it, do it well and successfully with connections onwards. I'm surprised AS's application to SAN did not contain any mention of their increased SAN presence, and the opportunity to connect to MRY, SRS, HNL and cities still to be announced, this with their "San Diego experiment"
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:16 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
I'm surprised AS's application to SAN did not contain any mention of their increased SAN presence, and the opportunity to connect to MRY, SRS, HNL and cities still to be announced, this with their "San Diego experiment"

I mean they clearly would prefer to get PDX in their own statements if they can get just one so they dont want to paint too good a picture for SAN i guess and get that one instead. SAN has the o&d to make its own case plain and simple so i think they know just being the only airline to apply for it, they have a good chance of getting it. It just depends on what critieria they are gonna use to award these i guess.

The airlines have clearly spent alot more time thinking about this then all of us combined and have more info and since two chose two tag ons to SAN clearly those two think there is a good chance/likely that AS will only get one slot or none. Who knows they could end up getting two for all we know. WN tends to spend the most on lobbying in DC so if they are applying for a SAN tag on i would think there is a good chance they will get AUS/SAN just a guess but as i said no one knows here.
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 4467
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:38 am

I still think, AS gets both filed for, B6 gets SJU, WN gets AUS. AS is a proven leader in operating beyond perimeter rotes successfully. I guarantee any regular, even semi-regular flyer from LAX-DCA knows of AS, and even more so DCA-SEA, and beyond Pacific NW travellers. AS put a lot of work into their applications as well, that has to account for something, like in an interview, are you going to hire the guy who's done this before, who comes prepared, as opposed to the guy who is not prepared, and has little or no experience in dealing with the task at hand. I see AS flying more into DCA as times rolls on, and exemptions come up again down the road, it's more than once already.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:30 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 33):
I still think, AS gets both filed for, B6 gets SJU, WN gets AUS. AS is a proven leader in operating beyond perimeter rotes successfully. I guarantee any regular, even semi-regular flyer from LAX-DCA knows of AS, and even more so DCA-SEA, and beyond Pacific NW travellers. AS put a lot of work into their applications as well, that has to account for something, like in an interview, are you going to hire the guy who's done this before, who comes prepared, as opposed to the guy who is not prepared, and has little or no experience in dealing with the task at hand. I see AS flying more into DCA as times rolls on, and exemptions come up again down the road, it's more than once already.

Oh i think this is gonna be the exemption period for quite along time. Once these are fulfilled there will be much less lobbying and people pushing to get more. The only thing i would note is you have VX as a new entrant and SFO with only one relatively small plane not getting any slots even 1x? I just find it hard to believe they would deny both suncountry and VX from any slots at all they are both new entrants to the DCA market and stimulate competition.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4603
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:15 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):
I just find it hard to believe they would deny both suncountry and VX from any slots at all they are both new entrants to the DCA market and stimulate competition.

I think VX would be a lot more successful on its proposed route...SY presence at LAS and DCA is miniscule and would not benefit from feed at either end. VX doesn't deserve BOTH frequencies it asked for, of course, but the question becomes: Does SAN deserve one nonstop more than SFO deserves a *second* nonstop? I tend to lean in that direction. If need be, UA can upgauge its route to a 757.

With all due respect to direct flight proposals by WN and F9, it's still for most intents and purposes a connection. You are still landing at an intermediate airport and laying over. The only differences are that you don't need to worry about your baggage being misrouted, and you know what gate you are leaving from. I do not think the DOT will be fooled and will prefer to consider nonstop proposals over one-stops.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:47 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
Even furthers my chain of thinking, that AS has developed a long term successful beyond perimeter operation, proving they can do it, do it well and successfully with connections onwards.

However, the DOT has always given favor to new entrants and those with the least slot holdings. AS might get one slot pair, but I doubt they will get both.

My guess: WN gets AUS, B6 gets SJU, VX gets SFO and AS gets PDX or SAN

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
I'm surprised AS's application to SAN did not contain any mention of their increased SAN presence

The DOT doesn't care and frankly AS's presence in SAN is paltry. AS knows this, hence why they didn't bother.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 29):
I certainly understand what you're saying but I can't help but believe (hope) that the DOT will find the destinations (markets) involved to be more important than who provides the flight or who has more exemptions.

While the markets are important, they cannot totally ignore the carrier. If the carrier didn't matter, they would allow the legacy carriers to bid for these slots as well.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:00 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 36):
Quoting SANFan (Reply 29):I certainly understand what you're saying but I can't help but believe (hope) that the DOT will find the destinations (markets) involved to be more important than who provides the flight or who has more exemptions.
While the markets are important, they cannot totally ignore the carrier. If the carrier didn't matter, they would allow the legacy carriers to bid for these slots as well.

Very good point. I still think its an outside chance for all but i think the US carriers with no exemptions still have good shots. It really could be considered fair to give VX, Suncountry, WN, and jetblue each one slot. Frontier and Alaska already have more than one. Personally i would find it hard to belive alaska with 3 exemption slots already gets 2 more and they leave all those airlines with none but we dont know what criteria they are gonna use.
 
flyiguy
Posts: 892
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 2:21 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:48 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 37):
It really could be considered fair to give VX, Suncountry, WN, and jetblue each one slot. Frontier and Alaska already have more than one. Personally i would find it hard to belive alaska with 3 exemption slots already gets 2 more and they leave all those airlines with none but we dont know what criteria they are gonna use.

Fair isn't whats at stake though. I can see AS getting PDX and SAN service since they are the largest unserved markets. B6 Getting SJU would be huge. And WN getting AUS.

With F9 already having 3 Denver slots they are just adding a some what DEN alternative.
With VX they have no beyond perimeter slots, but with UA entering the market that city is now covered and with them only being 4 years old and other having to wait years to get a perimeter slot why should they get 1 let alone 2? Hell the government didn't even want them to start anyways.


FLY
The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1539
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:54 am

PDX, AUS, SAN, and SJU
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
GentFromAlaska
Posts: 2666
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:21 pm

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:41 pm

As prognostication goes, the beyond perimeter slot awards will be:

AS PDX-DCA
F9 COS-DCA
VX SFO-DCA
B6 AUS-DCA
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:59 pm

SAN-DCA announced today along with 5 other new DCA-routes.

To start June 8 with the following (horrible e/b) schedule:

SAN-11:00PM DCA-7:00AM #1066 A319
DCA-5:40PM SAN-8:03PM #1065 A319

Starting ~July 11, the times change to:

SAN-12:30PM DCA-8:23PM #66 A320
DCA-8:55AM SAN-11:18AM #65 A320

(The above info is per the US booking engine...)

This is already being discussed on this thread:
US Launches DCA-SAN (by usflyer msp Mar 21 2012 in Civil Aviation)

bb
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:43 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 41):
To start June 8 with the following (horrible e/b) schedule:

What's wrong with that schedule? I'd think it leverages the power of the US resources at DCA.

NS
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:50 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 42):
What's wrong with that schedule? I'd think it leverages the power of the US resources at DCA.

It might make for some nice connections over Reagan but this service is mainly about local SAN-DCA-SAN traffic and we can get into the usual redeye-vs-daylight-transcon debate if necessary but I don't think we really need to.

BTW, the return flight times are perfect -- the usual peak travel time w/b transcon schedule.

Has anyone heard or figured out which inside-perimeter hub route US has surrendered? Just curious...

bb
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:09 am

A few random thoughts on what was announced today and how that affects what the DOT might do. Several of us have been speculating about what US would do and when. We've gotten an answer to that question so now we can think about how their decision will affect the awarding of the 4 remaining exemptions.

Today's announcement could mean that US was sure that the AS application for SAN-DCA was going to be one of the winning routes (not a real stretch IMO) and they decided to try to make sure they ended up with no worse than one competitor in a good solid market and hopefully, for them, no competition.

Interestingly enough, US is starting with one schedule, and then a month later, changing it entirely. I expect that has something to do with a/c or gate availability, but I'm sure glad the redeye is gone quickly. (The change also sees the size of the a/c increase -- from a 319 to a 320 -- with an additional 26 seats for sale on each flight.)

Another thing that I find interesting is that US has avoided the times proposed by AS in their bid for the route. I assume the July 11 schedule for US will be the "permanent" one and I notice that the times are in direct opposition to AS's proposed schedule. (It's just what AA did in the LA-DC market to oppose AS's times there. And the same in SF-DC, comparing UA's schedule and one of VX's proposed r/t.) Maybe it's just a coincidence, or maybe it's not...?

I continue to believe that the DOT might still award AS one of the 4 exemptions for SAN-DCA. SAN-WAS (inc DCA, IAD, and BWI airports) had an average pdew for the last year of available stats of 805; SFO-WAS (same 3 airports) was 1493. I can certainly see SFO getting an award from the DOT (to compliment UA's service) but I think SAN's traffic might be enough to justify a second flight as well. It will depend in large part on how the other bid routes measure up.

My feeling (and hope) remain that AS will get PDX and SAN, WN will get AUS, and VX will get a SFO flight (it would be the 9am SFO departure which turns to the 6:15pm DCA departure.) I continue to give no importance at all to the fact that the WN AUS proposal was submitted with the SAN tag-on...

Final thought: If the DOT does decide to give AS a SAN-DCA route, US can always pack up their service and move it up the California coast to either LA or SF (or anywhere else.) If the DOT doesn't, then US keeps the route for themselves. Seems like a pretty smart win-win for US Airways...

bb
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:57 am

SFO is the much more likely than SAN to see a second exemption but If were gonna go by o&d i think LAS has a much higher chance of getting a second flight than SAN does. Its a new entrant applying and AS has so many slot exemptions already and has a better chance of winning PDX also in this round. I just cant see AS getting SAN if they already got PDX and US has announced SAN N/S over LAS with a new entrant LCC and LAS is not some small o&d city.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 44):
Final thought: If the DOT does decide to give AS a SAN-DCA route, US can always pack up their service and move it up the California coast to either LA or SF (or anywhere else.) If the DOT doesn't, then US keeps the route for themselves. Seems like a pretty smart win-win for US Airways...

Just to play devils advocate and for some outside the box thinking..... OR if the route is not a gold mine they can pack it on up to LA and have prevented anyone from getting the non-stop to SAN service. US wants to build to be the premier DCA airline and hub and dont want to let AS get potentially 4 DCA west coast non-stop cities and get too loyal a following. US could probably become the largest carrier between DCA and SAN if they are able to prevent AS from moving in even if they switch and roll on up to LAX or SFO.

I can really see a logic in them selecting SAN now and trying to prevent AS from gathering too loyal a following and maybe also potentially prevent WN from getting AUS service with the tag on. I would like to think that they just took a long time to decide but if they really had decided SAN was the city they wanted and planned on going full force for it why wouldnt they have announced it sooner? We certainly wouldnt have seen the tag ons throw on the applications and they would have probably prevented AS from even applying for it. AS probably would have just tried for PDX there own words first choice. Now US has opened the chance in theory that AS could also win a SAN flight. DCA slots are probably not gona come open soon but with AS having such good frequent flyer terms with AA and DL i could see them really not wanting AS to gather a loyal base of fans at DCA and 4 west coast destinations. AS if they got two more exemptions would be a pretty major player in the DCA-West coast N/S market. DCA is USs work in progress and future they could be protecting their turf here.

I think its just a coincidence but the timing would work in favor of some small chance of a plan. Its not like the markets changed and i doubt us was really considering more than a few options. The other three first rounders were totally predictable and announced quickly UA-SFO, AA-LAX and DL-SLC so I cant think of a single negative US would have suffered if they had just chosen SAN a little earlier and AS probably wouldnt have even applied for it if they really have decided SAN is the market they want.

[Edited 2012-03-22 02:06:15]
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18256
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:50 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 45):
I can really see a logic in them selecting SAN now and trying to prevent AS from gathering too loyal a following and maybe also potentially prevent WN from getting AUS service with the tag on.

I don't see how it affects Southwest/AUS (or Frontier/COS) negatively. If anything I think it slightly improves the chances for both.

The DOT loves low fares, and this way it gets a legacy on SAN-DCA non-stop but low fares through one or other, or both, of the two one-stop/same plane LCC's.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
SANFan
Topic Author
Posts: 3694
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:51 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 45):
I think its just a coincidence but the timing would work in favor of some small chance of a plan. Its not like the markets changed and i doubt us was really considering more than a few options. The other three first rounders were totally predictable and announced quickly UA-SFO, AA-LAX and DL-SLC so I cant think of a single negative US would have suffered if they had just chosen SAN a little earlier and AS probably wouldn't have even applied for it if they really have decided SAN is the market they want


Agreed. To me, it's almost like US wanted to make sure AS (or at least somebody) applied for SAN before they made their announcement. (Or perhaps they just wanted to see if AS (anyone) would apply, maybe as some sort of validation that the market IS worth it...) I mentioned a couple of other things in my previous post that seem a bit odd as well. It may just be me (I'm sure it is!) but I'm not a big believer in coincidence.

As I've said from the beginning, SAN-DCA is a large enough market that anyone should be able to make it successful. Of all the Big Four cx plus Alaska, US is certainly the airline with the fewest flights at SAN and, I'd bet, the fewest pax carried into and out of Lindbergh Field, and undoubtedly the fewest frequent fliers. But I'm sure they can make the market profitable without a whole lot of effort. The question is, can 2 cx compete in the market and be profitable? (Actually, the question REALLY is, does the DOT think 2 cx are justified?) I've already expressed my thoughts about the first question, and the second question remains unknown for probably a month or two...

bb
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3279
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 10:29 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
I don't see how it affects Southwest/AUS (or Frontier/COS) negatively. If anything I think it slightly improves the chances for both.

The DOT loves low fares, and this way it gets a legacy on SAN-DCA non-stop but low fares through one or other, or both, of the two one-stop/same plane LCC's.

I see your point if we assume because of this non-stop AS is out for a SAN slot there is one more open for the taking but i think it makes the COS and AUS a little less attractive then it did before the us announcement compared to SJU and LAS just because the continuing part is less necessary or helpful now.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18256
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4

Thu Mar 22, 2012 10:43 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 48):
I see your point if we assume because of this non-stop AS is out for a SAN slot there is one more open for the taking but i think it makes the COS and AUS a little less attractive then it did before the us announcement compared to SJU and LAS just because the continuing part is less necessary or helpful now.

That's not really my reasoning. As I said earlier today in another thread, the primary concern of the DOT is the actual beyond perimeter city.

The "beyond" flights are just the icing, not the cake, but in both cases, AUS and COS, the DOT gets more bang for its buck.

mariner
aeternum nauta

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AC853, alomar, Arq, Austin787, b777erj145, Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], BobPatterson, Byrdluvs747, CBBW, CONTACREW, CPierre, csturdiv, Eyad89, FAST Enterprise [Crawler], flyboy80, gardermoen, Google Adsense [Bot], GSPSPOT, IslandRob, joemac547, justplanesmart, kann123air, kdonohue, MrBretz, msycajun, newburg1, notdownnlocked, Rdeggendorfer, rutankrd, sincx, soundmind, steex, swacle, thaiflyer, warren84, Yahoo [Bot] and 274 guests