sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:30 pm

Scanning the usual sites today I came across something interesting, over at Leeham:
"Boeing is already studying a replacement for the 757 with a loosely targeted EIS date of 2025-2026. This is called the New Airplane Study."

Is this the 737 replacement or is it its own kind? Maybe to the new 737 as 757 was to 767? Sharing many systems and parts but different aircraft family.
 
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garpd
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:36 pm

A single aircraft family catering from the 737-700 to the 757-200 range would make a lot of sense.

This is Boeings chance to start introducing a common cockpit on their products.
I'd say using the 787 cockpit for this proposed family would make sense, IMO.
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SASMD82
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:49 pm

Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

However - although there is no source available - when the news comes straight from Boeing, we can take this announcement somewhat more serious than the A-netters discussions.

Isn't this the proposed Y1 project? Isn't the market not somewhat niche? I mean, when counting the existing fleets of UA, DL, AA and US, we already have more than 600 planes flying around.....In Europe, South-America, the Middle-East, Africa and Oceania and even Asia, the bird is rare, very rare.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_757_operators (when checking this list, most of the operators outside North America have already withdrawn the 757.
 
sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:50 pm

Is there a market for a 757 aircraft? 737-900 and A321 lack the range but they are up there in passengers. The US market was the big market, EU was not at all, how about intra asia?

It would be hard to do the 757 first and then scale that down to 737-700 size?
 
sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

You say they just made that up? Leeham is a serious reporting place IMO.
 
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drerx7
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:09 pm

I don't think it should be a common family with the 737s...a plane like that inherently would be too heavy for the most common 737 routes and probably short on range for the typical 757 routes.
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sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:21 pm

When the 767 is EOL and the 787-3 never made it its a huge step from 737-9 to 787-8, I can see a niche in that space, but what size and shape is a harder nut to crack.

A 787-8 is too much aircraft on some routes but 240 passengers is a good number to fly. Looking at airbus they too have this gap in their lineup. When the 757 was in the market it was a different world, maybe more routes than transcontinental US have opened up? 240 passengers, 5-7000km?

In the future the niche that is made up of 767 and a330 gets vacated?! It is a big gap between a321,737-9 and a350-800 or 787-8..
 
tommy767
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:32 pm

What Boeing has proved is that a 739ER is not a true replacement for a 757. Compared to the 757, it holds less people, doesn't have the range and chews up a lot more runway on take off and landing. Quite frankly, I think if Boeing wasn't tied up with the 787 right now they would have already designed a corresponding replacement to the 757. I think they are just holding out becuase many US airlines especially DL and UA still have massive fleets of 757s.
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seabosdca
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:32 pm

The problem, as it always has been, is that it's hard to make a tube-and-wings aircraft in that size range that works well.

Widebodies with a narrower fuselage than the A330/A340 are a non-starter, because 1) the whole world has settled on LD3 as the standard container, and 2) 7 seats abreast results in a terrible seats-to-floor-area ratio. This is the biggest reason the A330 solidly defeated the 767 in the marketplace.

Narrowbodies get increasingly problematic as they reach lengths longer than the A321 or 752. They require heavier structure and become hard to turn quickly because of their sheer length. Nevertheless they are probably more attractive than widebodies because they can be more fuel-efficient, but engineering a narrowbody to scale to that size makes it impossible to sell the same narrowbody into the heart of the market. (The 757-100 concept failed even before there was an A320 or a 737NG.)
 
LPSHobby
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:43 pm

Hey guys,



Do you think a new aircraft in the 757 size with a long haul could have a good market, for example, for Brazil and South America?

best wishes, Leonardo
 
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Stitch
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:11 pm

Boeing has shown and patented dual-aisle designs with seating at 2+2+2 or 2+3+2.

Familiarity with CFRP should result in lighter and stronger structures, so that will help address the weight. A more ovoid fuselage would allow LD3s to be fitted side by side while keeping the main deck narrower than what it is today.
 
tommy767
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:15 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 7):

And I forgot, the 739ER is also rather weak with cargo capacity compared to the 757. This is probably the biggest drawback.

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 9):
Do you think a new aircraft in the 757 size with a long haul could have a good market, for example, for Brazil and South America?

Yup. You have to take into consideration that the 757 is what an airline makes of it. American uses the type sucessfully on MIA to South America trips. United uses it out of EWR and IAD for European runs. DL also does the same but is heavily invested in doing shorter domestic turns with the 757 (United to a certain extent as well.) However for most of these domestic operations a 739ER is a sufficient replacement (there are exceptions such as BOS-SFO.) The long hauls such as East Coast to Europe or Miami to South America -- the 739ER is a complete joke. I'm sure Boeing knows this and will have to crack a more viable repacement for the 757 within this current decade.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Boeing has shown and patented dual-aisle designs with seating at 2+2+2 or 2+3+2.

How wide would a 2-2-2 aircraft have to be? That would take care of the turnaround times with a long body NB.

To haul 220-230 passengers 6000km a 787-8 is a lot of structure. This might become a whole new family at both A and B, a class between NB and WB. It wont be a 757 as we know it, but the idea has some merit IMO. Maybe it is less suitable in Europe, until Africa really opens up.
 
hmelawyer
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:35 pm

Much of the talk around the 757 replacement has referred to the small niche that it fit into, which was generally 180-220 passenger loads on routes of 3000-4000 nm roughly. This was a US transcon and short transatlantic plane. The passenger load overlapped with the 767 and A330, though the lighter plane made thin routes more economical.

Looking ahead to the middle of next decade the 767 and A330 will be very long in tooth and their replacements (787, 350) all have upsized and taken on 8000 nm range, making them far from optimized for routes 3000-5000 nm. New narrowbody programs replacing the 737 and A320 would have to sacrifice too much performance in their primary market to stretch range much past 3700 nm. Therefore the market gap will have enlarged. I think that the 787 sized planes will effectively reach down into routes over 5000 nm well and the new narrowbodies will be able to handle US transcon well. However, the market gap will have enlarged enough to cover a plane that seats less than 250 passengers and is optimized to fly between 3000-5000 miles. That is no longer a niche market. It will encompass basically the entirety of the international 757 market, much of the 767 market, and a portion of the A330 market. It seems that Airbus will have a bigger gap than Boeing without a new product, but I don't think either company wants to abandon this market and I am not sure if airlines will continue to accept less than optimal products a decade from now.
 
jfk777
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 7):
What Boeing has proved is that a 739ER is not a true replacement for a 757. Compared to the 757, it holds less people, doesn't have the range and chews up a lot more runway on take off and landing. Quite frankly, I think if Boeing wasn't tied up with the 787 right now they would have already designed a corresponding replacement to the 757. I think they are just holding out becuase many US airlines especially DL and UA still have massive fleets of 757s.

The 757 was "over" designed by Boeing, in the 1970's they had no intention of flying the plane to Europe. It was later in its life after the 767 and ETOPS that the 757 found a market for Atlantic flights. Its a narrow market because most 757 jobs can be done by 737 or A320's.

If flying from Galsgow, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Manchester to Boston, JFK, Newark, Toronto and Washington was so great and $$$, BA would be all over it, Is It ? NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history. Single aisle fying today belongs on;y on the "Pan AM : TV show.
 
sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:55 pm

2025-2026 will give them plenty of time compared to 787. A frame larger than 737/320 and smaller than 767/330, NB and WB, it will become middle body, MB  

The opposition to this idea is strong, I don't know why?
 
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seabosdca
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:28 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Familiarity with CFRP should result in lighter and stronger structures, so that will help address the weight.

But such improvements can be applied just as easily to a NB, which would maintain a drag and weight advantage while carrying the same number of passengers.
 
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DocLightning
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 11):
The long hauls such as East Coast to Europe or Miami to South America -- the 739ER is a complete joke. I'm sure Boeing knows this and will have to crack a more viable repacement for the 757 within this current decade.

How many frames will this 757 replacement sell?

The vast majority of domestic US and European routes can be served very nicely by the 737/A320 series. There are only a very few US transcon routes and transatlantic routes that really need the 757's performance. The 737MAX and A320NEO will have even better range owing to improved fuel consumption. The A321NEO, which is almost as big as a 757, will probably have the range to do such routes as BOS-SFO, although it probably won't be able to do transatlantic routes very well. Given that the only routes for such an aircraft would be some of the S. American routes and thin transatlantic routes, it doesn't make very much sense to make an entire separate type.

It would make more sense for Airbus to adopt the A321 into Keesje's "A325," with bigger wings, bigger engines and strengthened landing gear. And even then, that's a lot of re-engineering, so it might not even make sense.

For 80-90% of the routes flown by 757's today, the 757 is too much airplane, but the airlines, having the airframes, have to use them. Designing an entire new type for the remaining 10-20% probably won't make any OEM any money.
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milesrich
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:50 pm

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

From what I understand, the 757 tooling is gone and they will have to start from scratch. IMHO, a 757NEO would have made a lot of sense. There is more than just a niche market. Yes, the 757 was over engineered, or overpowered, etc., but that is why it is still a first line airplane 30 years after it was introduced. The 757 was really a 727NG with only two engines and much improved range, as well as much more capacity, providing an airplane that fit the the markets of the original four engine jet aircraft as well as the 727-200 with only two flight crew members and two engines. Quite a feat 30 years ago, but the market for such an aircraft is still there. I am sure that if Delta could get more -300s, they would.
 
tommy767
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:03 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):
The vast majority of domestic US and European routes can be served very nicely by the 737/A320 series.

Yeah, for right now. Eventually the A320s and 738s will get old too and then what? I think Boeing and many US carriers are in denial when it comes to retiring the 757. They really do take it for granted. The 739ER cannot fly TATL or to South America. Note that CO used the 739ER for a bit from LAX to HNL but don't anymore because it was taking payload restrictions. And what's worse than taking payload restrictions when a route such as that depends on cargo for profit to offset the junk fares?

The 739ER is a fine airplane, but it CANNOT replace some ops performed by the 757. The A321NEO will be good for USAirways, but I don't see Delta or United ordering it either. Expect many Euro orders for this particular bird.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history.

Somehow I doubt this.

Some people probably thought the same thing when the DC8 and 707s were retired back in the 80s.
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mcpcshowcaseHD
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:08 pm

A replacement for the 757 would be an exciting addition to Boeing's aircraft family. The 757 has it's own niche, so if Boeing can make a business case work for a replacement they should go for it.
by mcpcshowcaseHD
 
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drerx7
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 19):
The 739ER is a fine airplane, but it CANNOT replace some ops performed by the 757. The A321NEO will be good for USAirways, but I don't see Delta or United ordering it either. Expect many Euro orders for this particular bird.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history.

Somehow I doubt this.

I agree, what will happen is that airlines will place larger planes or aircraft that aren't really suited and take losses or smaller profits until Boeing or somebody comes up with a 757 replacement. I think most airlines are probably hoping that air traffic will grow enough on most of the 757 routes that they will ultimately support larger widebodies. Yes, the 321/739 can fulfill 80-90% of the role of the 757 but that 10-20% is a very lucrative one that cannot be ignored forever.
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hmelawyer
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:14 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):
There are only a very few US transcon routes and transatlantic routes that really need the 757's performance. The 737MAX and A320NEO will have even better range owing to improved fuel consumption. The A321NEO, which is almost as big as a 757, will probably have the range to do such routes as BOS-SFO, although it probably won't be able to do transatlantic routes very well. Given that the only routes for such an aircraft would be some of the S. American routes and thin transatlantic routes, it doesn't make very much sense to make an entire separate type.

Agreed this would be a small market. However, how many routes need a 767's performance, but not a 787's performance. Add these routes to the 757 market that you mention and you seem to have a very good market that will need an airplane by the middle of the next decade.
 
sweair
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 6:39 pm

NSA is the 737 replacement, NAS(New Airplane Study) would be the 757 replacement. I have a hard time to see all routes being optimal with either 737/320 or 787/350. In the long run this will be the lineup. 767 will be EOLed first, followed by 330.
We already saw awful numbers with the 787 in Japan, even worse than 767 on shorter routes.
 
aviatorcraig
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:21 pm

OK, so what is the potential worldwide market for such a plane? mid to upper hundreds maybe? Not enough to tempt A or B to build a new design. They want to build aircraft in the thousands to recover the enormous development costs and return a profit for their investors.

Enter the Chinese - a nation that has ambitions to be a bigger player in aerospace, who would have no problem in the concept of the state supporting the development costs, and a country that has a significant home market. A several hundred unit production run of a flagship technology product in an uncontested market would look quite appealing to them.

A 757 replacement would give the Chinese a rather unique product to offer the World's airlines and give them the vehicle with which to put in place the essential international support network that could be used to assist in the sales of many other products.

I'm old enough to remember people saying Toyota would not sell cars to the masses and Airbus would only ever sell a few oddball aircraft...

Far-fetched? Maybe, but come back in twenty years and tell me I was right!   
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redzeppelin
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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:41 pm

Quoting aviatorcraig (Reply 24):
Enter the Chinese

I wouldn't discount the Russians either.
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:51 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):
For 80-90% of the routes flown by 757's today, the 757 is too much airplane, but the airlines, having the airframes, have to use them. Designing an entire new type for the remaining 10-20% probably won't make any OEM any money.

As much as I would like to see it happen, that's my general consensus as well.
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sweair
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:54 pm

Done right this aircraft could take some market from 321/739, all of 757 and the lower end of 767/330. Thousands of units is not impossible.

Looking at the specs for 321 and 739 I see a huge gap up to WBs. Someone will go for it I am sure. The 739 eats up 3000 meters of runway fully loaded!
 
airbazar
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:10 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 6):
When the 767 is EOL and the 787-3 never made it its a huge step from 737-9 to 787-8, I can see a niche in that space, but what size and shape is a harder nut to crack.

Same applies to the gap between A321 and A358. It's huge.
Someone will develop this plane at some point and it will sell well. There are some markets that I can see benefiting from a plane like this. Some of these don't exist yet but the demand will be there in 10-15 years.
- Just like the 757 opened up new non-stop TATL routes, a plane like this would be useful to open new routes between North and South America and to operate existing routes more profitably. This market will continue to grow but many cities in S.America can't support anything bigger and existing narrowbody planes don't have the range to get to deep S.America.
- Likewise in TATL. There are many secondary cities in Europe that can't support anything bigger.
- Africa is another emerging area. A320's/B737's can't make it far from Europe and they certainly can't make it there from either North or South America.
- Intra-Asia flying, especially LCCs. Today they have huge fleets of A320's/B737's. They will want to grow at some point, and not just frequencies.
- Last but not least, N.America, the largest market to date. If there's demand for it today there will be demand for it in the future, especially if we can't build new airports and runways. Additional frequencies is not a unlimited option.
 
tommy767
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:14 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 25):

US carriers won't be buying a 757 replacement from Russian or Chinese companies. Perhaps pressure could be put onto Boeing to make a viable 757 replacement come alive.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
AS739BSI
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:25 pm

I was hoping for an announcement like this due to the 757s niche markets in long-thin passenger routes that can also take on cargo. They are a major workhorse especially on TATL and US transcon, plus I think an improved 757 could probably do Hawaii as well? Even with the NEO, the A321 isn't going to cut it for current 757 niche markets.
 
nomadd22
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:40 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 16):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Familiarity with CFRP should result in lighter and stronger structures, so that will help address the weight.

But such improvements can be applied just as easily to a NB, which would maintain a drag and weight advantage while carrying the same number of passengers.

CFRP has a minimum thickness because of impact requirements, so it doesn't have the same advantage when scaled down. It wouldn't have a weight advantage on the NB scale, and with Alcoa's new alloys, it might even be at a disadvantage.
Of course, weight isn't CFRPs only advantage where it's being used, but it's a big one.
Anon
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:12 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 29):
Perhaps pressure could be put onto Boeing to make a viable 757 replacement come alive.

Pressure in the form of, sales, maybe? I highly doubt that Boeing is sitting back thinking, "We really just don't want to make a 757 replacement." If airlines were knocking down their door asking to buy one, it would be made.
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LPSHobby
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:27 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 11):
Yup. You have to take into consideration that the 757 is what an airline makes of it. American uses the type sucessfully on MIA to South America trips. United uses it out of EWR and IAD for European runs. DL also does the same but is heavily invested in doing shorter domestic turns with the 757 (United to a certain extent as well.) However for most of these domestic operations a 739ER is a sufficient replacement (there are exceptions such as BOS-SFO.) The long hauls such as East Coast to Europe or Miami to South America -- the 739ER is a complete joke. I'm sure Boeing knows this and will have to crack a more viable repacement for the 757 within this current decade.

Yes, but I was thinking not only in this, but more than this, a new type with the 757 size and a bigger range, a plane capable of routes that the 757 can´t fly due to the distances.
I was thinking if there would be many routes that a plane like this could perform and that a 787-800, A330-200 or even still operating ( in this future scenario ) 767-200/300s would be too big. And for wich airlines/regions a plane like would be usefull. I was thinking, for example, about some cities like mine, CNF airport, Belo Horizonte in Brazil, and others like Porto Alegre, Brasília using this plane for open new routes like CNF/CDG, Brasilia/CDG, POA/MAD,etc...
 
tommy767
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:31 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 32):

I think they've been a little blind sighted by the 787 in recent years. Basically they have been so involved in the performance and delays from that program that they are really pushing the 739ER instead of developing a true 757 replacement. That works to a certain extent, but as said in this thread before that frame doesn't tackle all the perscribed 757 missions at the current time. Imagine UA had to dump all of their TATL 757s right at this second -- What would they do? They would be screwed. This issue needs to be addressed within the next few years. Even the oldest PMCO 757 is pushing 18 years of age.

Finally now that the 787 program is up and running, maybe the 757NG or whatever can be their next project.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
BMI727
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:37 pm

Quoting sweair (Thread starter):
Is this the 737 replacement or is it its own kind?

The eventual replacement of the 757 will most likely be a variant of the 737 replacement. The market is just tiny in comparison. The 737-800 backlog is larger than the total 757 production.

Quoting garpd (Reply 1):
A single aircraft family catering from the 737-700 to the 757-200 range would make a lot of sense.

The smallest variant in the new family should be a little smaller than the 737-800.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:38 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 34):

Maybe, but I think they have bigger fish to fry in the form of the 777 upgrade/replacement than a small(er) market product like a 757NG.

I still don't see the airlines begging for a unique 757 replacement. Maybe they are and I don't know it, but if they were wanting one so bad, I think it would be in the works already. Instead, Boeing is focusing on aircraft that are in hot demand (737, 787, 777).
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tommy767
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:43 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 36):

Some 777s will be replaced by a variant of the 787. The 777 has quite a bit of life left. The 757, in all reality does not. Mainly because the bird has been out of production for almost 8 years.

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 36):
I still don't see the airlines begging for a unique 757 replacement. Maybe they are and I don't know it, but if they were wanting one so bad, I think it would be in the works already. Instead, Boeing is focusing on aircraft that are in hot demand (737, 787, 777).

Again, they aren't begging at the moment because it's not critical yet -- eventually it will be.

What's bizzare is how they aren't really adding to the 737 program as of yet. The design is very 1990s as is the 777. They are just trying to push the existing product line with a 737NEO in the works over the next 5-10 years.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:54 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 37):
Again, they aren't begging at the moment because it's not critical yet -- eventually it will be.

You don't think the airlines have the forethought to realize the 757s aren't going to last forever? Airlines typically order new types many years in advance of when they typically want to replace their existing fleet. As has been mentioned, most non-US airlines have already replaced 757s with other types, and even the US airlines appear to be headed in that same direction. AA and DL have placed massive orders of NEO and MAX aircraft, in part to replace older 752 aircraft. If they really wanted an on-par 757 replacement that bad, they would have held out and encouraged either A or B to develop a true replacement. For every 757 that is replaced with a 739 or A321, that is one less potential 757NG sale that might encourage A or B to actually build one.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 37):
What's bizzare is how they aren't really adding to the 737 program as of yet. The design is very 1990s as is the 777. They are just trying to push the existing product line with a 737NEO in the works over the next 5-10 years.

Try 1960's for the 737! While the NG is unquestionably a modern plane, much of the 737 still claims its heritage all the way back to the original 731 and even to the 707 before that!  

As far as why they are doing the MAX vs a clean sheet build, it all comes down to return on investment and timing. Sure, they could build a clean-sheet 737 replacement, but it would cost a whole lot more and take a lot longer; maybe even long enough that they would lose a lot of sales to the sooner available A320NEO family. At least for now, Boeing has taken the gamble that an upgraded 737 (the MAX) is the better bet. Whether they're correct or not remains to be seen, but that is a topic for another thread.  Smile

[Edited 2012-03-15 15:06:17]
SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:11 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 3):
737-900 and A321 lack the range but they are up there in passengers. The US market was the big market, EU was not at all, how about intra asia?
Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 38):
For every 757 that is replaced with a 739 or A321, that is one less potential 757NG sale that might encourage A or B to actually build one.

I was convinced the 739 was the 757 replacement. I guess not. However, with the 737NG if Boeing could make it fuel efficient and comfortable enough, as well as give it the range, they could have a viable replacement.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
If flying from Galsgow, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Manchester to Boston, JFK, Newark, Toronto and Washington was so great and $$$, BA would be all over it, Is It ? NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history.

   The problem with these TATL routes is the actual 757 itself. I've seen many reports of fuel diversions, maintenance issues, you name it, I've seen it happen on one of these flights, especially dealing with the plane itself.
I'd much rather fly LH or AF instead of DL/UA TATL if it means avoiding the 757 (Speaking as a consumer)
So if Boeing was smart, they'd design an aircraft that can do these TATL legs, cross-country legs, and still be comfortable, fuel efficient, etc.

   Zach
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
flyingcello
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:27 pm

IMO, the 737MAX was Boeing's 2nd choice...I think they really wanted to do Y1, but couldn't get the cold-cure composite technology to maturity in time. If so, then they are probably working on that technology right now, and once it's good to go, Y1 will appear. I think that is also why they are so keen to minimise the MAX changes...do just enough to justify the aircraft.

A 757 replacement is different. The market is smaller, and the return on investment equation would not be so strong. Boeing would have to cover a development cost equivalent to a wide body, with sales volumes equivalent to a wide body, but margins more akin to a narrow body. While I'd love to see a new 757, Y1 will get close enough to cover most markets.

What about a 757 re-engine programme? If P&W could do a 40,000lb GTF, and a 787 flightdeck was retrofitted, what else would have to be done to 'zero-hour' existing airframes? Maybe not practical, but a nice thought!
 
BMI727
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:38 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 39):
I was convinced the 739 was the 757 replacement. I guess not.

For most flights it is. The flights that a 737 cannot do are not that numerous, certainly not enough to justify a new airframe.

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 40):
What about a 757 re-engine programme?

It's not practical, since there's no engine for it. The more successful re-engine programs use off the shelf engines - Tays on 727s, CFM56s on DC-8s, etc. The cost involved almost certainly kills the business case.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
etops1
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:01 pm

Why not just reopen the 757 line ??
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:06 pm

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 40):
What about a 757 re-engine programme? If P&W could do a 40,000lb GTF, and a 787 flightdeck was retrofitted, what else would have to be done to 'zero-hour' existing airframes? Maybe not practical, but a nice thought!

This might work for DL and UA's TATL ops, but I'm not sure how else this would work, in regards to the production line itself.

   Zach
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:07 pm

It doesn't exist. There's nothing to reopen.

NS
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:32 pm

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
757NEO

Why would they use an Airbus trademark when they can call it the B-757MAX.   

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
Isn't the market not somewhat niche? I mean, when counting the existing fleets of UA, DL, AA and US, we already have more than 600 planes flying around.....In Europe, South-America, the Middle-East, Africa and Oceania and even Asia, the bird is rare, very rare.....

Not, it is not a niche market airplane. That is unless you define niche market as having some 900 actively flying airplanes. That is the current worldwide fleet of B-757s. Yeah, there are about 600 in the US, but it is not as rare as you would think in the EU, ME, Asia, etc. Having 900 airplanes still flying out of 1050 built during 30+ years isn't that bad.
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:47 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 45):
Not, it is not a niche market airplane. That is unless you define niche market as having some 900 actively flying airplanes. That is the current worldwide fleet of B-757s. Yeah, there are about 600 in the US, but it is not as rare as you would think in the EU, ME, Asia, etc. Having 900 airplanes still flying out of 1050 built during 30+ years isn't that bad.

It's still somewhat of a niche market, at least in terms of the markets where no other aircraft will fit. The 321NEO or the 737-9MAX can fill its shoes just about everywhere except the areas mentioned numerous times in this thread (mostly transatlantic and high performance transcon). That makes the 757 a niche aircraft.

Even besides that, yes there are 900 some frames still flying, but that is essentially 900 aircraft with no other comparison out there. Just about every other grouping of aircraft (A320/737, A330/767/787, A340/A350/777, A380/747), has nearly a couple thousand or more filling that category (the A380/747 a few less, but in effect they are also a niche aircraft). The 757 stands alone.
SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
 
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garpd
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:48 pm

Like I said before, if Boeing create a 757 sized variant of their eventual 737 replacement, it might work out for them.

It would make sense to have a family of aircraft from 737-700 to 757-200 sizes. (Thus rivaling the A32X family)
Obviously with optimisation for the 737-800 equivalent with the other variants being stretches and shrinks.

I mocked up a 737 replacement once. Heres a roughly 757 sized variant of such.
Whilst outwardly appearing like a 787 (due to it using similar tech and architecture, etc), the fuselage cross section would be more ovoid than circular.

Big version: Width: 1500 Height: 435 File size: 200kb


[Edited 2012-03-15 17:07:57]
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
SeJoWa
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:49 pm

Boeing will be studying any number of things at any one time.

However, what draws me to this idea is the potential to combine new materials technologies with a narrowbody fuselage, in a plane that won't sink the company (but may actually return a profit - I wouldn't know, but I'll hazard a guess that it would pay for itself over twenty plus years).

Best test run for a later Y1 that involves all critical people I can think of.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757

Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:25 am

Could the 787-3 be the closest thing to the eventual 757 replacement?? Yes I know they stopped with ever making them but could making the 757 replacement around what would have been the 787-3 a possibility?? 2-2-2 or 2-3-2 seating should not not that hard to accomplish and its newer than any other narrow body on the market at the moment. The NEO 320 is the same frame with newer engines and a strengthened wing. The MAX is still in the planning stages. Ideas??

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