nomorerjs
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Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 1:18 am

a) none
b) EK, has to happen some day, one would think?
c) QR, if not EK, why not QR (involved in community and tied in with AA).
d) NZ. 787 would fit nice, has been talked about, but wtih IAH happening soon?
e) QF, announced, but stopped, now at DFW, seems like a long stretch.
f) LA, long rumored ORD-LIM-SCL, but will this happen?
g) AV, even longer shot, but with Star?
h) MS, ORD-CAI
i) LY, ORD-TLV (if given cat 1)
j) OS, third time the charm (now with LH)?
k) 748 comes to ORD
l) 380 comes to ORD
 
BMI727
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 1:19 am

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?  

I think it's mostly a matter if someone beats Emirates or if they are the next new carrier.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
VC10er
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:06 am

I heard from an FA, so take for what it's worth that TAM was considering Chicago. And if/when it leaves Star Alliance it would seem to make sense.

But there are so many "unserved routes" in the world that seem like a no brainer, but never come to be.
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kordcj
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:15 am

Hello everyone! This is my first post here on a.net! I have been an avid reader/lurker of the forums for years, and actually am nervous about contributing to the conversations. Some of the guys here can be ruthless if you post in error. I've learned from reading the forum, never state a fact without a supporting link .

Hopefully the EK rumors are true as I have yet to see anything official from anyone. Also hoping we can see more Central/South American carriers enter the Chicago market. TAM or LAN would be great. Even better would be AV starting service to Bogota, Chicago's sister city.

NZ would be by number one choice since I'm moving there in 5 months, but has anyone successfully flown the Midwest or East Coast to Oceania non-stop profitably? I remember back in the mid/late 90s seeing the Qantas logo up on T5, but don't believe their metal actually ever served ORD.

Aside from EK though, I think we'll probably see the A380 or 748 from LH before any of the other carriers on the list. I think the new runway 10C-28C is still on schedule to open next year now that the cemetery fiasco has been laid to rest. no pun intended. I believe that runway was specifically built with those two craft in mind.
The most obvious proof for intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't tried to contact us.
 
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vhtje
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:33 am

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
b) EK, has to happen some day, one would think?
c) QR, if not EK, why not QR
Quoting kordcj (Reply 3):
Hopefully the EK rumors are true

I have wondered about Middle-Eastern carriers and the US market before. Who could the EK et al carry to the US? Their hubs are too far east for the European market (travelling with them would invovle too much back tracking) and they are in the wrong direction for SE Asia and Oceania passengers.

The far-eastern Asian cities would want fly to the US going east, not west.

That leaves, surely, only the subcontinent and Africa as potential markets. But they are not big enough, surely?

(Perhaps Russia? But how much market is their for Russian/US traffic anyway?)
 
MAH4546
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:47 am

Quoting vhtje (Reply 4):
I have wondered about Middle-Eastern carriers and the US market before. Who could the EK et al carry to the US? Their hubs are too far east for the European market (travelling with them would invovle too much back tracking) and they are in the wrong direction for SE Asia and Oceania passengers.

You say this as if EK doesn't already fly to North America. It flies to seven cities in North America, soon to be eight (and likely eleven by the end of 2013).

It carries traffic, obviously, to the Middle East. There is also the eastern African seaboard, the Indian subcontinent, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, many former Soviet states and Indian ocean islands. Further, from East Coast destinations, it is absolutely in the right direction for Southeast Asia. Remeber, SQ flies to JFK and IAH via Europe, and MAS' former Newark flights were via Dubai itself.
a.
 
qf002
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:53 am

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
EK, has to happen some day, one would think?

IMO they will be the next... If not this year, then it will be early 2013.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
NZ. 787 would fit nice, has been talked about, but wtih IAH happening soon?

If this happens, it won't be until 2015-16. that's still 4 years off. I don't think that UA's flight out of IAH will be an issue -- anybody in Australia/NZ would far rather fly NZ over UA.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
QF, announced, but stopped, now at DFW, seems like a long stretch.

No way will QF ever go to ORD. It makes no sense to add the extra cost of getting to ORD over DFW, when DFW offers every benefit of ORD, and there is a very small local market.

So basically I see EK as the next airline at ORD... SQ could also be a candidate to open a one-stop flight (wasn't this rumoured via Southern Europe?)
 
ASA
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:26 am

Quoting vhtje (Reply 4):
I have wondered about Middle-Eastern carriers and the US market before. Who could the EK et al carry to the US? Their hubs are too far east for the European market (travelling with them would invovle too much back tracking) and they are in the wrong direction for SE Asia and Oceania passengers.

There are quite a few more from that region (Middle East, Asia Minor) actually:

EK .... JFK, LAX, IAH, SFO, SEA, DFW, IAD (soon)
TK .... JFK, LAX, ORD, IAD .... more coming soon
QR .... JFK, IAH, IAD .... they'll add too, for sure
EY .... JFK, ORD, IAD (announced for 2013)
RJ .... JFK, ORD, DTW
LY .... JFK, EWR, LAX
KU .... JFK
SV .... JFK

So, seems like there is a LOT of traffic to be carried. As MAH4546 pointed out ... Middle East, East Africa, and the Indian Subcontinent primarily. And then some connect to Central Asia and to the Far East, I'm sure, if given the right fare. I may have missed some airlines or flights too ... please add.

[Edited 2012-03-26 02:35:30]
 
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United787
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:16 pm

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
c) QR, if not EK, why not QR (involved in community and tied in with AA).

QR is actually partnered with UA not AA...but I think they would be a great fit for ORD since I don't see UA flying to the Middle East from ORD, only from IAD and EWR.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
d) NZ. 787 would fit nice, has been talked about, but wtih IAH happening soon?



I can't see this ever happening... IAH makes a lot of sense, most of the US and Mexico is connected with IAH...ORD wouldn't add much. NZ is not a large market...

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
f) LA, long rumored ORD-LIM-SCL, but will this happen?

My prediction is that someone will be starting ORD-LIM in the next 1-2 years...my ranking of likelyhood is TA, LA, UA, AA...

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
g) AV, even longer shot, but with Star?

I don't think this is too much of a long shot...ORD-LIM and/or ORD-BOG will be coming

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
j) OS, third time the charm (now with LH)?

Not sure why this hasn't done well with a 763...

Quoting VC10er (Reply 2):
I heard from an FA, so take for what it's worth that TAM was considering Chicago. And if/when it leaves Star Alliance it would seem to make sense.

I think TAM's long haul network is still pretty thin, I would think there are a lot of other destinations that TAM needs to serve before ORD. I don't see AA doing ORD-Brazil... UA has this covered pretty well right now...and I believe they continued to serve it in the time between Varig and TAM being partners with UA...
 
Cipango
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:26 pm

EI could possibly restart ORD in a few years from SNN.

But like all of the above, EK is first in my opinion.
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IrishAyes
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
d) NZ. 787 would fit nice, has been talked about, but wtih IAH happening soon?

In addition to IAH, NZ flies to LAX and SFO. While both of these are smaller *A hubs than ORD, IAH fills the void quite well to provide the necessary connections to capture US-NZ traffic originating east of California.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
e) QF, announced, but stopped, now at DFW, seems like a long stretch.

Same situation as above, and more urgently, QF's international network is a giant mess right now. A high-risk, ULH flight to ORD with increasing oil prices (and lack of available ac?) would render this a giant disaster, especially with the dwindling AA hub in Chicago.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
f) LA, long rumored ORD-LIM-SCL, but will this happen?
Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
g) AV, even longer shot, but with Star?

LAN would be a welcome addition to Chicago, but LAN tends to be very conservative with its network planning. As is, ORD-South America traffic has options via TA, AM, CM, AA, DL, etc. Not underserved by any means for a market that tends to be "thinner" for deep South America.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 6):
So basically I see EK as the next airline at ORD... SQ could also be a candidate to open a one-stop flight (wasn't this rumoured via Southern Europe?)

EK is the most probable bet.

I've wondered if ORD could support an additional Asian carrier (CI, BR, CA) to PEK or TPE. I'd add TPE as a wild card but then again I know nothing about whether there is a large local market between China and Taiwan.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
WROORD
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:36 pm

I think it may be AB from BBI, especially now that they have joined OneWorld.
 
sovietjet
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:39 pm

It boggles my mind that EK fly to SEA but not ORD given their extravagant brand image and show-off style of operations. I would think by now they would have started the route just so they can boast that they fly there, loads be damned. Who the hell flies to Seattle from Dubai???
 
ORDJOE
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 12:12 am

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 12):
Who the hell flies to Seattle from Dubai??

All the microsoft and scores of other tech firms wanting to get to Mumbai and the other silicone valleys of India, EK got in on an underserved market.


I could see EK coming, there is still demand for mid east and asia from ORD.

Would be nice to see LA start LIM or something, ORD has minimal south America coverage (not counting central america) that UA flight to GRU does amazingly well to my understanding, I am surprised AA has not tried more ORD-south america.
NZ and QF, I highly doubt especially with fuel as it is. MS no chance I see. I could see LY starting if they get the that clearance back. There is a substantial Jewish population around here, plus other business and leisure travel, does anyone know why they left ORD back in the 90's

748, could see LH sending it here
A380 I would think KE would be the best shot, possibly BA but isnt there an issue that the A380's wing span is too wide that they have to close off traffic when it is taxiing, or did I read that wrong somewhere

Quoting cipango (Reply 9):
EI could possibly restart ORD in a few years from SNN.

Do people actually go to Shannon enough to justify WB service, I thought the whole deal with that was some govt mandate to try to drum up business and tourism. I have read a few trip reports long haul to SNN and all of them are on empty planes.
 
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AmricanShamrok
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:24 am

Quoting ORDJOE (Reply 13):
Do people actually go to Shannon enough to justify WB service, I thought the whole deal with that was some govt mandate to try to drum up business and tourism. I have read a few trip reports long haul to SNN and all of them are on empty planes.

Yes. While not the ideal-sized aircraft for the SNN market, widebody service from here to JFK, BOS and YYZ has proven justifiable in the summer season as shown by Aer Lingus and Air Transat over the past number of years. The "Shannon Stopover" rule you mention was abolished in 2007 so airlines are no longer tied down to operate into SNN; they choose to. The EI chairman was quoted as saying the SNN-ORD nonstops performed better than DUB-IAD before both routes (and DUB-SFO) were axed in 2009 and that SNN-ORD and DUB-US West Coast will return, it's just a matter of when. I believe SNN-ORD did particularly well on cargo.

But before EI adds service to ORD, I think Emirates and Qatar Airways are the likely next contenders.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:27 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 12):
It boggles my mind that EK fly to SEA but not ORD given their extravagant brand image and show-off style of operations. I would think by now they would have started the route just so they can boast that they fly there, loads be damned. Who the hell flies to Seattle from Dubai???

You're making it sound as though EK announced a flight to San Antonio over Chicago. While EK certainly markets itself with more flair than other carriers, they usually have a compelling business case to back up their decisions. How do we know this? Because they are consistently profitable. Don't confuse them with IT   

There is a high volume of tourism and business travel between the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Asia, not to mention a significant level of cargo demand, to warrant the nonstop SEADXB link.

While load factors have been less than stellar, I attribute that moreso to the state of the economy rather than lack of potential on this route. Give it time, and it shall improve.

Quoting ORDJOE (Reply 13):
Would be nice to see LA start LIM or something, ORD has minimal south America coverage (not counting central america) that UA flight to GRU does amazingly well to my understanding, I am surprised AA has not tried more ORD-south america.

GRU does well because of the very nature that it is GRU. Outside of Sao Paulo, however, ORD-South America routes are non-contenders.

EZE iwould be the next logical destination to be served from ORD, but both UA and AA have tried ORD-EZE and failed, miserably. Remember, deep South America flights require two aircraft, with low utilization rates, and tend to be long, thin and highly seasonal.

That being said, my only inclination is that for an ORD-South America flight to succeed, it would need to be to a city in a more northern region, and LIM seems like an obvious choice. Perhaps the advent of the 787 may allow for better market economics for such a route to succeed. Even still, I am skeptical given the vast connections over IAH, ATL, MIA and to a lesser extent, DFW, that render such a route unnecessary.

Quoting ORDJOE (Reply 13):
I could see LY starting if they get the that clearance back. There is a substantial Jewish population around here, plus other business and leisure travel, does anyone know why they left ORD back in the 90's

The "large Jewish population" factor never is a justifiable reason alone to launch nonstop XXX-TLV routes. If that were the case, then there would be a nonstop MIA-TLV, DFW-TLV, IAD-TLV, ORD-TLV, even EZE-TLV flights.

What DOES support a flight to TLV is a large Israeli population in a given city, which provide ties between Israeli businesses and commerce, in addition to the Jewish population. The latter contingency is often far lower yielding and travels less frequently to Israel (i.e. birthright, etc) which will obviously not sustain a year-round flight.

Now, in Chicago's defense, those Israeli commercial ties do exist in the city, but enough data points seem to indicate that despite such presence, LY has never placed a high value on their ORD flights. Like PK, they come and go even with decent load factors. While LY has never publicly stated (at least to my knowledge) that the ORD flights were unprofitable, they also never confirmed that they were indeed profitable, either. I'm inclined to believe they were so-so, especially since they were operating a tag-on to ORD from YYZ/EWR.

Given that LY is not a strong competitor like EK, EY, or TK, I don't think the odds are good that they can return to Chicago proftiably in the future. Particularly with plenty of nonstop options via the East Coast on DL, US and UA, plus a huge spread of European carriers, which currently fly ORD-TLV 1-stop.
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jreuschl
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:46 pm

Would AB ever consider service, or is LH+UA too strong there to compete?
 
ORDJOE
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:38 pm

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 16):
Would AB ever consider service, or is LH+UA too strong there to compete

Seeing as AB still seems to be somewhat leisure minded of a carier, it is possible a seasonal flight, I suppose with AA feed could be possible, but I would not hold my breath on them

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 15):
especially since they were operating a tag-on to ORD from YYZ/EWR.

Interesting I did not know that it was a tag on. I am surprised though that ORD can not sustain a flight to TLV, I suppose more money could be made sending the plane elsewhere, but with Chicago being the second most important business city in the US I would think there would be a good mix of leisure and business PAX. I will though agree with EY and possibly EK coming El Al would have to target O+D.
 
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:44 pm

Quoting ASA (Reply 7):
SV .... JFK

JFK and IAD
 
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RWA380
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:20 am

Quoting kordcj (Reply 3):
Hello everyone! This is my first post here on a.net! I have been an avid reader/lurker of the forums for years, and actually am nervous about contributing to the conversations. Some of the guys here can be ruthless if you post in error. I've learned from reading the forum, never state a fact without a supporting link

Welcome to A.net, I remember my first postings, thanks for joining in, I always love to hear new ideas and thoughts here.
Best of luck to you, and hopefully years of fun here on A.net.
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b735
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Wed Mar 28, 2012 12:55 pm

I am surprised that no one mentioned Icelandair yet.

FI seem to have the right size aircraft to make it profitable for them.

Just my two cents

B735
 
ORDJOE
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:27 pm

Quoting B735 (Reply 20):

Did not think of them, their 757s do have the legs to do it, plus they have some amazing fare sales, would not mind seeing them .
 
LFutia
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting B735 (Reply 20):
I am surprised that no one mentioned Icelandair yet.

FI seem to have the right size aircraft to make it profitable for them.

Just my two cents

B735

I thought we had the other Icelandic airline, I think Iceland Express service us to Iceland?

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ericaasen
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:53 pm

Technically, the next international airline at ORD is WestJet. Unless we're talking about the next one after WestJet, in which case it'll be EK.
 
kordcj
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:43 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 19):

Thanks for the welcome. It'll be nice to contribute to these conversations with people I've come to know over the years but have never actually spoken with.

Quoting LFutia (Reply 22):

Aren't they extremely seasonal with service to ORD? I think like June thru August seasonal. I would've preferred to see Icelandair, but that was only so I could see their 757-300 taxiing around the field. Now that the UA/CO merger is about done, I got my wish  .
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ORDJOE
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:01 pm

Quoting LFutia (Reply 22):
I thought we had the other Icelandic airline, I think Iceland Express service us to Iceland?

I completely forgot about this. I suppose I will take them none the less, but they are seasonal and only once a week, as often as I am around ORD I have never actually seen one of these birds, would be nice to get it daily or at least 3x
 
yeogeo
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:55 pm

Quoting LFutia (Reply 22):
I thought we had the other Icelandic airline, I think Iceland Express service us to Iceland?

Iceland Express restructured last Fall after Astraeus collapsed (the 757's used for ORD were Astraeus') and dropped many routes, including ORD. Now they operate only 320's, so unless they lease/acquire some longer range a/c we won't be seeing them at ORD again.

yeo
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yeogeo
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 2:06 pm

I’m a little surprised that no one has brought up the Chinese (and to a lesser extent, the Taiwanese). I think there’s a possibility in the medium term of one or more of these carriers sending some passenger flights to O’Hare.


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All the above freighters are regularly seen at ORD, for what its worth.

My top picks would be a second daily Star ORD-PEK flight, this time with Air China, and once BR is admitted to Star, a TPE-ORD flight.

yeo
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IrishAyes
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:05 pm

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 27):
I’m a little surprised that no one has brought up the Chinese (and to a lesser extent, the Taiwanese). I think there’s a possibility in the medium term of one or more of these carriers sending some passenger flights to O’Hare.

I mentioned it in reply 10. See below:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
I've wondered if ORD could support an additional Asian carrier (CI, BR, CA) to PEK or TPE. I'd add TPE as a wild card but then again I know nothing about whether there is a large local market between China and Taiwan.
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Cubsrule
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 15):
EZE iwould be the next logical destination to be served from ORD, but both UA and AA have tried ORD-EZE and failed, miserably.

On what do you base the assertion that UA "failed miserably?" I believe they are on the record as saying it was cut because it was a single route that could be cut to return the 2 763s that had to go back in b/k, where cutting most other longhaul routes would not free up 2 763s.
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yeogeo
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:27 pm

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 27):
I’m a little surprised that no one has brought up the Chinese (and to a lesser extent, the Taiwanese).
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 28):
I mentioned it in reply 10

So you did, I missed it. Apologies!
I agree with you; especially the Chinese should be expanding their horizons in North America, but I don't feel BR is such a long shot - a Star membership may change priorities and ORD may be among them.

yeo

[Edited 2012-03-29 09:33:26]

[Edited 2012-03-29 09:35:49]
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Boeing747_600
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:05 pm

Quoting cipango (Reply 9):
EI could possibly restart ORD in a few years from SNN.

Doesn't EI still operate DUB-ORD?

Considering the fact that as prolific a carrier as AF considers ORD worth serving only on a seasonal basis, I would submit that the prospect of any new non-US carrier starting an ORD service in the near future doesn't come across as too promising.

[Edited 2012-03-29 11:10:21]

[Edited 2012-03-29 11:11:49]
 
yeogeo
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:36 pm

Quoting Boeing747_600 (Reply 31):
Considering the fact that as prolific a carrier as AF considers ORD worth serving only on a seasonal basis, I would submit that the prospect of any new non-US carrier starting an ORD service in the near future doesn't come across as too promising.

The DL partnership in ST has more bearing on AF's pulling out seasonally than any loss of interest in Chicago as a destination by foreign carriers, I should think. After all, there are still three carriers on the route currently.

Depends on what you consider "near future". Care to wager no new foreign carriers to ORD in the next 12 months? You might find several takers taking the opposite view here on A-net  

yeo
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Boeing747_600
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 7:41 pm

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 32):
Care to wager no new foreign carriers to ORD in the next 12 months? You might find several takers taking the opposite view here on A-net

I'll definitely wager on no new carriers outside of North America (everything north of and including Panama)
 
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:23 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 29):
On what do you base the assertion that UA "failed miserably?" I believe they are on the record as saying it was cut because it was a single route that could be cut to return the 2 763s that had to go back in b/k, where cutting most other longhaul routes would not free up 2 763s.

Well, for whatever reason, it isnt here any more.

I dont have any knowledge on how bad United failed. I do know that AA failed really miserably on ORD-EZE tho.
It is what it is...
 
yeogeo
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 32):
Care to wager no new foreign carriers to ORD in the next 12 months?
Quoting Boeing747_600 (Reply 33):
I'll definitely wager on no new carriers outside of North America (everything north of and including Panama)

You're on! -even with the beyond North America stipulation.
You can IM me on 29 March 2013 if no new carriers announce, you win and I'll IM you before that date if you lose  

yeo

[Edited 2012-03-29 13:51:34]
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Cubsrule
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 34):
I do know that AA failed really miserably on ORD-EZE tho.

No question there. But no one seems to be able to prove that it was nearly as bad for UA as for AA.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Boeing747_600
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:55 pm

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 35):
You can IM me on 29 March 2013 if no new carriers announce, you win and I'll IM you before that date if you lose

yeo

  
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 34):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 29):
On what do you base the assertion that UA "failed miserably?" I believe they are on the record as saying it was cut because it was a single route that could be cut to return the 2 763s that had to go back in b/k, where cutting most other longhaul routes would not free up 2 763s.

Well, for whatever reason, it isnt here any more.

I dont have any knowledge on how bad United failed. I do know that AA failed really miserably on ORD-EZE tho.

ORD-EZE has been started, stopped, started, stopped, started and stopped, and not resumed since 2008. Twice (or was it 3 times?) on UA, once on AA.

I think those are enough data points to prove the market is not there.

While it was clear in AA's case that the loads and yields were awful, the situation surrounding UA is a bit more vague. They spun the story along the lines of a 767 shortage, but it wouldn't be off-base to guesstimate that the flight was likely a sub-par performer. I did some anet searches and there were numerous rumblings about less-than-stellar loads, seasonal demand drop-off, etc. etc. At the time, UA had to chop its weakest routes under restructuring, and clearly ORDEZE was easy bait to cut.

While this all may be anecdotal, I don't think we will see UA reinstate ORDEZE anytime soon. Especially with the market covered via IAH and EWR.

Quoting Boeing747_600 (Reply 31):
Considering the fact that as prolific a carrier as AF considers ORD worth serving only on a seasonal basis, I would submit that the prospect of any new non-US carrier starting an ORD service in the near future doesn't come across as too promising.

Not to bash AF, but "prolific" is hardly the word I would use to describe them right now. They're legitimately bleeding cash as we speak.

As they restructure their network, both long and short haul, they can leverage their alliance partners to help offset losses without having to completely withdraw from an important market such as Chicago. The DL swap at ORD, as well as SEA, etc. is a very smart strategic move, IMO. But, it's far more a reflection on DL/AF than it is on Chicago.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sat Mar 31, 2012 1:55 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
They spun the story along the lines of a 767 shortage, but it wouldn't be off-base to guesstimate that the flight was likely a sub-par performer.

Are you suggesting that a publicly-held company like UA can just lie to the public? If so, you need to review the securities laws (I imagine they also made some bankruptcy filings with similar statements, and there's a similar point to be made about candor to the court).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Cipango
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sat Mar 31, 2012 4:49 pm

Quoting Boeing747_600 (Reply 31):
Doesn't EI still operate DUB-ORD?

Yes EI does serve DUB-ORD daily. I just meant EI might restart a second route to ORD from SNN.
Let's fly! Unless it's on a CRJ 200, then I'll stay down here.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 1:17 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 39):
Are you suggesting that a publicly-held company like UA can just lie to the public? If so, you need to review the securities laws (I imagine they also made some bankruptcy filings with similar statements, and there's a similar point to be made about candor to the court).

Look, there's no need to get overly tactical here. I will admit I am unfamiliar with the laws, but my point was that there were likely several additional reasons why the route was pulled and never reinstated other than simply pointing to an aircraft shortage when UA filed for Ch. 11, and likely, one of those reasons had to do with the nature of the yields. Again, the on-and-off nature of ORDEZE provides enough insight to indicate that it is a weak performer, certainly not capable of surviving year-round, and is marginally seasonal at best.

Given that the route required two dedicated aircraft, and UA had to allocate its widebody resources across its hubs, UA had a compelling explanation as to why ORDEZE was low-hanging fruit to cut. However, I'd say on the whole it was not a stellar performer, period, and is unlikely to return anytime soon.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 2:13 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 41):
but my point was that there were likely several additional reasons why the route was pulled and never reinstated other than simply pointing to an aircraft shortage when UA filed for Ch. 11, and likely, one of those reasons had to do with the nature of the yields.

Yields weren't bad given that UA didn't have the right airplane for the job density-wise. The ability to funnel pax to MVD, which is tiny but pretty high-yielding, helped. Loads were seasonal and, like a lot of South America routes, inconsistent even in season (overbooked one day, 40 pax the next).

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 41):
Again, the on-and-off nature of ORDEZE provides enough insight to indicate that it is a weak performer, certainly not capable of surviving year-round, and is marginally seasonal at best.

Part of the problem is the on-again-off-again nature of the Argentine economy. If Argentina sees 3-4 years of solid growth at some point, ORD-EZE probably has a shot. Who knows whether that will ever happen.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
yyzala
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 3:08 am

SU is a possibility, as early as summer 2013. They have served ORD before and so had AA, so there should definitely be a market.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 3:50 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 43):
SU is a possibility, as early as summer 2013. They have served ORD before and so had AA, so there should definitely be a market.

Thats another route that AA failed miserably at. I dont know how lucrative the market is.

I actually flew it. There were 3 people in J on my flight. It was in July of 2009.
It is what it is...
 
MAH4546
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 4:29 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 43):

SU is a possibility, as early as summer 2013. They have served ORD before and so had AA, so there should definitely be a market.


How is there definitely a market? AA failed, SU failed and it's been pretty much with zero service for the past decade sans the AA stint.

That right there says there is no market.
a.
 
yyzala
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Sun Apr 01, 2012 3:29 pm

AA tried to make USA (+ORD)-DME work. Unfortunately, trying to take customers away from DL and SU is not a very smart idea. What's making DL and SU survive is that they offer USA-SVO-other cities in Russia, unlike AA who had very limited code sharing with S7. Therefore, SU will have better success than AA as they can offer connections beyond the SVO hub. I also believe that if Aeroflot were to start this route, it would be 4 times weekly max to make this route viable (unlike AA with daily flights).
 
Boeing747_600
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:06 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
Not to bash AF, but "prolific" is hardly the word I would use to describe them right now. They're legitimately bleeding cash as we speak.

They may be hurting when it comes to the bottom line, but they are still prolific in terms of a route network compared to most international carriers.
 
nomorerjs
Topic Author
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:31 am

EK has to happen some day.

ORD-EZE was a 744 on UA during the holidays. UA can make this work with Asian connections, but the economy in Argentina makes the Illinois economy look like a global masterpiece! Until this changes, it's just a 2 month a year route.
 
DavidByrne
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RE: Next Int'l Airline To ORD Will Be?

Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:38 am

As noted by others, NZ is a candidate. The carrier has signalled strong interest in serving ORD once its 789s are delivered . . . whenever that might be!

One poster noted that the NZ market is not large, which is, of course, true. However, a one-stop service from the east coast of Australia to ORD via AKL would serve a much larger potential market, especially when the alternatives are a domestic transfer at LAX or DFW - or, from some ports, a domestic transfer at SYD as well as LAX or DFW. NZ's point of difference is a seamless international-international connection at AKL, with which they already attract a good portion of the Australia-SFO, YVR and LAX markets.

The issue of fuel prices, however, is something else. In an era where a number of ULH flights are bleeding heavily, I'm not sure AKL-ORD would be viable. But fuel prices have historically been so volatile that the situation could be quite different by the time the 789s arrive. Or not.
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