rajtravels
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Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:43 am

Any idea how is Emirates new Seattle route doing? From A/C change from 300ER to 200LR how is the load factor in this route.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:19 am

How long ago did they change from the 300-er to the smaller LR?? Makes sense to me though. I always thought it (777-300er) would be too much plane for that route.
 
redrooster3
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:52 am

Isn't it a little too early to judge a new route?

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 1):
How long ago did they change from the 300-er to the smaller LR?? Makes sense to me though. I always thought it (777-300er) would be too much plane for that route.

EK usually starts new US routes with 77L's, then later when the route matures, they switch to 77W/A380.
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liftsifter
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:48 am

I don't quite think the rote gets enough to even warrant a 77L. While it is early, it's safe to assume they're making a killing off of cargo on the route.
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aerohottie
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:00 am

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 3):
While it is early, it's safe to assume they're making a killing off of cargo on the route.

How so? what are they carrying?
What?
 
liftsifter
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:07 am

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 4):
How so? what are they carrying?

No idea exactly what they're carrying, but EK wouldn't start the route if there wasn't a good trade for cargo on the route.
A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B736 B737 B738 B744 B763 B77L B77E B77W B788 E190
 
aerohottie
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:10 am

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 5):
No idea exactly what they're carrying, but EK wouldn't start the route if there wasn't a good trade for cargo on the route.

Perhaps carrying Boeing parts for their aircraft back to Dubai MX lol, maybe cheaper to haul it themselves rather than pay for others  
What?
 
Quokkas
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:26 am

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 4):
How so? what are they carrying?

Some of the goods expected to be carried include seafood, fresh fruits and vegetables, medical equipment, software, technology and telecommunications equipment, computer and electronic products, non-electrical machinery, chemicals and fabricated metal products. Additionally there would be aircraft parts and aircraft engines to service the growing fleet and the Emirates Engineering facilities which carries out maintenance under contract to other airlines.
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EK413
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:52 am

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 7):

I'm guessing the engine isn't a GE90 considering the sheer size of the powerplants  

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RWA380
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:10 am

I think EK put a lot of thought into the decision to operate a daily service to SEA, they did it in a traditionally slow period of the year for travel. It's way too soon to debate if this route will make it long term, but I'd expect passengers are not the largest motivating factor for EK on this route.

This flight is not just for Seattle, but the entire Northwest, in addition to the goods that can transport via EK cargo, would be products made here in Oregon from Intel, as well as business travel for Nike, Adidas, Freightliner and more. I think SEA is a season -sentric market, and if airlines want to go year round, you have to ebb and flow with the season. BA has at some point been less than daily to London during the off season, or a tag via YVR, to a twice daily operation during the summer.
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something
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:37 am

The 77L was put on the route because the 77W is needed elsewhere as A380 substitution while that fleet is undergoing wing-crack repairs. The 77W should be back on the DXB-SEA-DXB run around May.
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boeing773W
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 1:06 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 1):
How long ago did they change from the 300-er to the smaller LR?? Makes sense to me though. I always thought it (777-300er) would be too much plane for that route.

They only operated the 77W for the first 2-3 days or so following the launch, and then switched to the 77L.

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 6):
Perhaps carrying Boeing parts for their aircraft back to Dubai MX lol, maybe cheaper to haul it themselves rather than pay for others

Cargo is definitely a large part of it but it can't only be cargo, otherwise they would have just launched a freight service with Emirates SkyCargo to SEA. There's probably quite a bit of passenger traffic otherwise they wouldn't have launched the route. As the poster further up noted, the traffic is not just SEA bound, but the entire northwestern United States.

Also, let's not forget that Vancouver is pretty close and I have no doubt that there would be people from there who would fly EK from SEA. They've been facing fierce opposition from the Canadians with launching service to new cities there (even increasing YYZ service).
 
boeing773W
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 1:12 pm

Just checked the EK website and they do in fact route YVR passengers through SEA with AS codeshare.
 
aerohottie
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:03 pm

Quoting boeing773W (Reply 12):
Just checked the EK website and they do in fact route YVR passengers through SEA with AS codeshare.

Ah, very interesting. A bit of a two finger salute to the Canadian authorities I presume  
What?
 
santos
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:25 pm

I think people sometimes forget that load factor has nothing to do with how profitable the route is.
First Class/Business Class and Cargo are the main 'bread & butter' for any route.
Load factor can be low, but what it matter is the yields.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:41 pm

India, East Africa, others were somewhat difficult from Seattle. This flight fills a noticable gap.
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hiflyeras
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:52 pm

I think another question is how badly are they hurting BA SEA-LHR, DL SEA-AMS and AF SEA-CDG, LH SEA-FRA? I'm sure they've all taken a wee hit from losing many of those with connections to the Middle East, India and Africa.
 
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drerx7
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:55 pm

Quoting something (Reply 10):
The 77L was put on the route because the 77W is needed elsewhere as A380 substitution while that fleet is undergoing wing-crack repairs. The 77W should be back on the DXB-SEA-DXB run around May.

Maybe...I felt they needed the capacity down here in Houston after we lost the 2nd daily to DFW and the single daily 77L was not enough capacity whereas 2 daily was too much capacity. I never saw SEA warranting the 77W capacity - maybe after a few seasons.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:04 pm

From what Ive heard, so far, the loads are in the toilet. There have been days when J has had less than 5 rev. business pax.

But it is way too early to make a judgement. Give it time and let it build.
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vadheim
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:14 pm

They could make a stop in Scandinavia on it's way to/from Seattle -
I bet that could help the load factor if a problem today.

I guess they need to fly 'that way' (i.e. across Scandinavia) anyway  
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:24 pm

Quoting vadheim (Reply 19):
They could make a stop in Scandinavia on it's way to/from Seattle

I'm still holding out for AS to start SEA-OSL   
 
F9Animal
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:07 pm

They have been advertising well here in Seattle. The route will do just fine, especially when cruise season kicks in to gear.
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drerx7
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:16 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 21):
They have been advertising well here in Seattle. The route will do just fine, especially when cruise season kicks in to gear.

I don't think cruise season will have a big impact on this route - it will just take some time for it to develop...much like SQ at IAH. EK will stick it out for awhile...hopefully.
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EricR
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:39 pm

One of the more unique routes IMO. I think it is too niche of a route to work long term especially when factoring in the ULH nature of the route.
 
rwsea
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:46 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 21):
They have been advertising well here in Seattle. The route will do just fine, especially when cruise season kicks in to gear.

Are people from the Middle East, India, and Africa really flying all the way to Seattle to take an Alaska cruise? I doubt it.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:14 pm

Quoting rwsea (Reply 24):
Are people from the Middle East, India, and Africa really flying all the way to Seattle to take an Alaska cruise? I doubt it.

Middle East and India, you'd be surprised. Africa...I agree...not so much.

SEA is also today's gateway to Vancouver and western Canada. I think AS could benefit quite a bit from their codeshare with EK.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:51 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 3):
I don't quite think the rote gets enough to even warrant a 77L. While it is early, it's safe to assume they're making a killing off of cargo on the route.

Cargo is somewhat a myth. Even if it was a cargo heavy route, it wouldn't be more than 10% of the revenue from the route and in reality I'd expect it to be less than 5%. SEA has some long haul cargo, but nothing that even approaches daily freighter service. Most of the long haul cargo is 1-3 times per week stopovers on multi city routes. It's not an airport that gets a lot of cargo operations other than cargo destined to/from Alaska.

The one real benefit of the daily service is the fact that the largest spare parts inventory facility in the world is located at SEA. That alone however would never justify a route.

Passenger loads and revenue drive routes in all classes of service.
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ER757
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 6):
Perhaps carrying Boeing parts for their aircraft back to Dubai MX lol, maybe cheaper to haul it themselves rather than pay for others  

That's actually true, no smiley needed. This absolutely played a part in their decision to start SEA. It was by no means the one reason they came here but I can tell you for certain that the parts shipping from not only Boeing but also the many, many aerospace sub-contractors in the Puget Sound area were considered.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 26):
It's not an airport that gets a lot of cargo operations other than cargo destined to/from Alaska.

The following serve SEA with all-cargo aircraft
CI
BR
MP
KE
CV
AS
FX
Other than AS little to none of it goes to Alaska
 
roseflyer
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:21 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 27):

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 26):
It's not an airport that gets a lot of cargo operations other than cargo destined to/from Alaska.

The following serve SEA with all-cargo aircraft
CI
BR
MP
KE
CV
AS
FX
Other than AS little to none of it goes to Alaska

And none of those operations are close to daily other than FedEx. SEA doesn't have anywhere near the cargo of airports like ANC, ORD or LAX in the US.

There's this belief that cargo revenue on passenger flights can make them profitable, which is rarely true. On international routes to the US, cargo is typically 2-5% of the revenue outside some very specified routes. Cargo only operations typically are multi-stop and no where near daily to airports like SEA. Starting a daily route with a passenger aircraft with the intention of depending on cargo makes little sense, especially to an airport that is not a main cargo hub like SEA. Cargo certainly helps and can add additional revenue, but it doesn't make or break passenger routes. If Emirates wanted to enter the SEA cargo market, I'd expect a once a week tag from ORD or a marketing agreement with UA or AS to SFO.

[Edited 2012-03-26 16:30:26]
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lightsaber
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:36 am

What is SEA-DXB's load factor?

While I respect EK's business model. But quite simply, no company bats 1000. (100% success rate) There is enough scuttlebutt to wonder if SEA might be their first error in the Americas. Ok, it is the wrong time of year for high demand...

But it isn't as if EK hasn't cut routes before. I'm not saying that EK won't continue to expand in North America. But I would like to know:
1. What are SEA's load factors.
2. In particular, in premium cabins
3. And when will we have the A380 to LAX.  

Lightsaber
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MAH4546
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:28 am

The thing is, EK is absolutely dumping capacity in the market, including sub-$2000 J fares. Even if it's the "wrong time," even if it's a small market, insanely cheap fares like that fill planes. But, while anecdotal, I keep hearing J often goes out with less a ten seats filled.
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drerx7
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:32 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
Even if it's the "wrong time," even if it's a small market, insanely cheap fares like that fill planes. But, while anecdotal, I keep hearing J often goes out with less a ten seats filled.

True...but in this economy there may not be enough people to pay even those 'insanely cheap' fares. You can spur enough market to fill a 737 to Panama City, FL; but a 777 to the other side of the world is another ball game.
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:34 am

SEA in general is absurdly seasonal. (Just look at the weather month by month and you'll understand why...)

I know EK doesn't usually operate seasonal routes, but SEA might be a destination where that makes sense. I'm sure, like every other SEA route, it will work fine from June through September. But I just don't see where the traffic will come from in November or February, even with EK's huge network.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:48 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 32):

I know EK doesn't usually operate seasonal routes, but SEA might be a destination where that makes sense. I'm sure, like every other SEA route, it will work fine from June through September. But I just don't see where the traffic will come from in November or February, even with EK's huge network.

Some airlines drop SEA from daily to 4 or 5 times per week. Does EK operate other routes on a subdaily basis, because that is what some long haul airlines do with SEA?
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 32):
I know EK doesn't usually operate seasonal routes, but SEA might be a destination where that makes sense. I'm sure, like every other SEA route, it will work fine from June through September. But I just don't see where the traffic will come from in November or February, even with EK's huge network.

If you lived in Seattle, don't you think a nice, warm, dry desert destination with lots and lots of tourist activities would sound good on those rainy November and December days? I think that will help answer the question on where EK will find the traffic in the months you mention. This time of year is sort of the transition out of the dreary winter into more moderate and longer days. While this year has been no bargain in that department, it's an aberration. I see the volumes being primarily Pacific Northwest based people headed to DXB and points beyond in winter and the opposite in summer. A lovely mid-70's F day with Mt. Rainier dominating the horizon probably will sound like Paradise to someone sitting in Dubai in July.   
 
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drerx7
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:10 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 34):
If you lived in Seattle, don't you think a nice, warm, dry desert destination with lots and lots of tourist activities would sound good on those rainy November and December days?

That's what Florida, Vegas, Hawaii, and any number of other destinations that are less than a 14hr flight to an uber expensive destination in a recession are. EK at SEA is a strange maneuver that I don't understand; however, I'm not in the business - I'm sure EK did not go into this blind...Undoubtedly they believe that over time the route will be sustainable...hopefully.
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wedgetail737
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:13 am

I'm sure the population EK is looking for in the DXB-SEA market isn't all tourists. Tourists, for the most part, will fill the coach section of the 777. EK is also looking for those who work at Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon.com, Expedia and other companies who has business in the Middle East and Western Asia.

I think it's just a matter of time that this EK market will develop. SEA has been able to support LHR, AMS, CDG, FRA, KEF, ICN, NRT, PEK, KIX...why not DXB. I wouldn't be surprised to see additional overseas flights to SEA in the next year or so.
 
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AirIndia
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:02 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 36):
EK is also looking for those who work at Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon.com, Expedia and other companies who has business in the Middle East and Western Asia.

not only business but also VFR from employees here esp in Microsoft, Expedia that have a significant South Asian skew.

From my relatives in SEA i am aware that there was a lot of press coverage especially for the 1000th 777 delivery followed by the FJ product EK offers.

Expedia is already aggressively marketing the new route from SEA to India among MS employees.....
 
texdravid
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:07 am

Why did EK start SEA with a 77W and DFW with a 77L?
Did they expect SEA to have more demand than DFW?

By the way, how is EK's DFW-DXB doing? How is it affecting BA and LH?
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wedgetail737
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:14 am

Quoting AirIndia (Reply 37):
not only business but also VFR from employees here esp in Microsoft, Expedia that have a significant South Asian skew.

From my relatives in SEA i am aware that there was a lot of press coverage especially for the 1000th 777 delivery followed by the FJ product EK offers.

Expedia is already aggressively marketing the new route from SEA to India among MS employees.....

Since Dubai is obtaining a larger role in the Hydro races, I think it would be a good PR for EK to be a sponsor of Seafair.
 
PITrules
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:18 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 28):
Cargo certainly helps and can add additional revenue, but it doesn't make or break passenger routes.

Its making DL's LAX-SYD flight, according to their VP of Cargo.
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MAH4546
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:43 am

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 31):
Even if it's the "wrong time," even if it's a small market, insanely cheap fares like that fill planes. But, while anecdotal, I keep hearing J often goes out with less a ten seats filled.

True...but in this economy there may not be enough people to pay even those 'insanely cheap' fares. You can spur enough market to fill a 737 to Panama City, FL; but a 777 to the other side of the world is another ball game.

Other EK markets are seeing similar capacity dumps and reacting far better, even in this economy. And, honestly, if traffic was so bad right now, airfares and load factors wouldn't be at record highs right now compared to the past five years (yes, airlines have cut capacity, but you have to look at this flight as part of the realities of reduced capacity). I can't agree that the economy can be used to explain this.

I believe the decision to go into Seattle was rushed. Emirates wants into Vancouver - a huge VFR market to India. I bet it was hoping that a combination of Vancouver VFR traffic to India, tech traffic to Bangalore and aviation industry traffic to the Middle East would make this a good idea. On paper, it might work, in theory, it's apparently not working at all.
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:18 am

Quoting frmrcapcadet (Reply 15):
India, East Africa, others were somewhat difficult from Seattle. This flight fills a noticable gap.

A member of my family is from India, he works for IBM in PDX and goes to India 2-3 times a year to see family, and he goes via AMS or SIN, he likes both, but has assured me his next trip is on EK. This service is less than 30 days old, way too soon to speculate, J will fill up more as time goes by, and real frequent travellers use their miles to upgrade.

Quoting vadheim (Reply 19):
I guess they need to fly 'that way' (i.e. across Scandinavia) anyway

SK couldn't make SEA work, nor could AY, both of those had connections on the Europe end. I think the quickest way to go SEA-DXB is directly over the North Pole.
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Quokkas
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:03 am

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 36):
EK is also looking for those who work at Microsoft

Microsoft Gulf opened its Dubai-based headquarters in 1991. This office acts as a regional office for the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Yemen. All these locations are one-stop from DXB. But how many employees do they have - 180?
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something
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:22 am

Do 'we' have any hard numbers though, or is this all mere speculation based on feelings? I know for a fact that the route is scheduled to return to a 77W in May, and I know of various African destinations (esp in North West Africa) that regularly fly on 30% filled A332s.

I was also very surprised Emirates would start flying there, but I haven't seen any numbers yet and therefore wouldn't be so quick to write this route off.
..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 42):
SK couldn't make SEA work, nor could AY, both of those had connections on the Europe end.

Apparently FI is doing well from SEA to KEF and beyond. Maybe FI was the best solution for those destinations in Scandinavia and other Northern Europe destinations. The FI flights go daily next month...I think. But FI has been advertising here fairly aggressively and still are.

Quoting something (Reply 44):
I was also very surprised Emirates would start flying there, but I haven't seen any numbers yet and therefore wouldn't be so quick to write this route off.

It would be quite the let-down if EK were to leave the SEA-DXB market. Hopefully EK will let it prove itself out through the rest of this year.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 33):
Some airlines drop SEA from daily to 4 or 5 times per week. Does EK operate other routes on a subdaily basis, because that is what some long haul airlines do with SEA?

The only international airlines that I've ever seen cut back on SEA service are OZ, KE and FI. BA, AF (soon DL), DL, UA and LH all run daily flights into SEA year-round. However, sometimes they up-gauge their flying resources during summer months. KE will reinstate 777-200ER's ICN-SEA starting next month. Previous years, I had seen AF change from A330-200 to A340-300's. Likewise, LH have flown A340 into SEA.

Is Condor restarting summer service between FRA-SEA again this year?
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:21 pm

Wait another month. The airports March traffic reports will be out in late April.

For cargo, SEA is rather small fry in the US. ACI-North America ranks SEA at the #20 spot for cargo tonnage, certainly smaller than its #17 relative spot it holds passenger rankings.
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hiflyeras
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RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:35 pm

Unless some of you arm-chair airline CEO's are sitting at the EK gate in SEA with a counter in your hand you have no basis for any of this speculation. To be trashing SEA-DXB service only 27 days after it started is ridiculous.

[Edited 2012-03-27 08:18:24]
 
sq_ek_freak
Posts: 1180
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2000 4:48 pm

RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:14 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
The thing is, EK is absolutely dumping capacity in the market, including sub-$2000 J fares. Even if it's the "wrong time," even if it's a small market, insanely cheap fares like that fill planes. But, while anecdotal, I keep hearing J often goes out with less a ten seats filled.

Out of curiosity, where did you find the sub-$2000 Business Class fares? Also what dates were you looking at, and what was your final destination, Dubai or elsewhere? The fares I can see from briefly doing some online searches are between $8,000-$10,000 round trip, or about $8,700 one way.

That's insanely low for such a long flight, and might well be worth it for folks looking to fly EK from LAX/SFO to buy a cheapo ticket up to SEA and fly the long haul from there in J.
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flyyul
Posts: 4405
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2000 11:25 am

RE: Emirates Seattle Route Load Factor

Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:32 pm

Yeah looking at the seat maps it looks like the F/J cabins are very weak.

Economy seems to be busy. Dallas looks like it's doing relatively well

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