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enilria
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OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:58 pm

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".


AA JFK-SXM NOV 0.2>0.5
*AA LAX-ACV JUN 0>1.1 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2
AA LAX-BNA JUL 1.0>2
AA LAX-BOS JUL 3>4
I see a pattern.
*AA LAX-HNL JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
*AA LAX-LIH JUN 1.6>1.8 JUL 1.5>2 AUG 1.6>1.8
*AA LAX-OGG JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA LAX-SJD JUL 1.8>1.7
*AA LAX-YYZ JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>1.5
AA SJU-DOM AUG 3>1.5 SEP 3>1.1 OCT 3>1.0 NOV 3>1.0

AM MIA-CUN MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.3>0
AM ORD-MTY JUN 0.5>0

BW JFK-MBJ APR 1.0>1.2

DL ATL-MGM MAY 10>9
DL ATL-MXP OCT 0.7>0.5
DL ATL-SHV JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6 NOV 6>7
DL ATL-TPA NOV 11>12
DL CVG-TPA NOV 1.8>1.0
*DL DTW-HTS MAY 1.8>0.8 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.8>0 AUG 1.9>0 SEP 1.8>0 OCT 1.9>0 NOV 1.9>0
DL JFK-AGP JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8
DL JFK-PRG SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-SNN OCT 0.8>0
DL JFK-ZRH SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 0.8>0.6
DL MOT-MSP SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8 NOV 7>8
Earlier end
*DL PHL-CDG SEP 1.0>0.1 OCT 0.8>0

EC EWR-ORY MAY 2>1.9 JUL 2>1.9

Looks like the scheduled an additional airplane
F9 DEN-AUS JUL 1.9>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3
F9 DEN-COS JUN 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
F9 DEN-MSP JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
F9 DEN-PHX JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
F9 MCI-AUS MAY 0.5>0.3
Been expecting this
*F9 MCI-BOS MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0

G4 ATW-LAS AUG 0.2>0.1
G4 AZA-CID APR 0.7>0.0
G4 AZA-FSD APR 0.7>0
G4 AZA-LAS APR 1.0>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0
G4 AZA-OAK APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0
G4 BLI-LAS SEP 0.7>3 OCT 0.8>3 NOV 0.7>3
G4 FAT-LAS SEP 0.1>0.9 NOV 0.1>0.9
G4 LAS-SCK SEP 0.1>0.9 NOV 0.1>0.9

KL IAD-AMS JUL 1.0>1.4 AUG 1.0>1.4 SEP 1.0>1.3

LY JFK-TLV SEP 1.7>1.6

OR SFB-AMS JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2

OZ IND-ORD APR 0.1>0.0
OZ LAX-SJC NOV 0.9>0

SS MIA-ORY SEP 0.3>0.0 OCT 0.3>0

SY BOS-MSP OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.7
SY JFK-MSP OCT 0>1.2 NOV 0>1.1
SY LAS-MSP OCT 0>1.5 NOV 0>1.5
SY LAX-MSP OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
SY MSP-CUN NOV 0>0.1
SY MSP-SEA OCT 0>1.1 NOV 0>1.0
SY MSP-SFO OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9

Big Fall cut in DEN in leisure markets
UA DEN-BIL JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA DEN-BIS JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
UA DEN-BUR SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA DEN-BZN JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-COD SEP 1.0>2
UA DEN-CPR SEP 4>5
*UA DEN-CUN SEP 0.2>0 NOV 0.9>0.1
UA DEN-CVG NOV 1.9>1.1
UA DEN-FCA NOV 2>1.1
*UA DEN-FLL SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
UA DEN-GTF SEP 2>3
UA DEN-HLN NOV 2>1.1
UA DEN-JAC SEP 3>4 NOV 3>2
*UA DEN-LAS SEP 6>4 OCT 6>4 NOV 6>4
UA DEN-LIT JUL 3>4
*UA DEN-MCO SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>3
UA DEN-MFR SEP 1.0>2
UA DEN-MLI SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
UA DEN-MSN JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
*UA DEN-OAK JUN 1.9>0.1 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
UA DEN-OKC SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
UA DEN-OMA SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
UA DEN-PDX SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
UA DEN-PHX SEP 6>4 OCT 6>4 NOV 6>4
UA DEN-PSP NOV 2>4
*UA DEN-PVR SEP 0.2>0 NOV 0.9>0.1
UA DEN-SAT SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA DEN-SGF SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
UA DEN-SJC SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
*UA DEN-SJD SEP 0.2>0
UA DEN-SMF SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
*UA DEN-TPA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0 NOV 2>1.0
UA DEN-XNA AUG 1.9>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0 NOV 2>1.0
UA DEN-YQR JUN 2>1.9
UA DEN-YWG JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
UA EWR-ANU AUG 0.6>0.3
UA EWR-AUA SEP 0.9>1.0
UA EWR-BDA AUG 1.2>1.4
UA EWR-BQN NOV 0.8>0.7
UA EWR-CUN SEP 0.9>0.7 NOV 3>1.2
UA EWR-IND JUN 7>6
UA EWR-MBJ AUG 0.7>0.6 SEP 0.2>0
UA EWR-MDT SEP 3>1.5 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
UA EWR-PAP SEP 0.4>0.3
UA EWR-PLS AUG 0.9>0.6
UA EWR-POP SEP 0.3>0.2
UA EWR-SXM AUG 0.7>0.4
UA EWR-YYZ SEP 10>9
*UA GUM-NRT JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
UA IAD-AUA NOV 0.2>0.1
UA IAD-BKW MAY 1.0>0.7
UA IAD-CDG NOV 1.9>1.0
*UA IAD-CUN SEP 0.2>0
UA IAD-DEN SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8
UA IAD-JFK SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
UA IAH-AGU AUG 1.2>1.4
*UA IAH-BON SEP 0.1>0
UA IAH-BPT JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
UA IAH-BZE SEP 0.9>1.0
UA IAH-CLL JUL 7>5 AUG 7>5
UA IAH-CRP JUL 8>9
UA IAH-CUN NOV 6>5
UA IAH-CUU AUG 1.2>1.4
UA IAH-CZM SEP 0.3>0.2
UA IAH-DGO SEP 0.2>0.3
UA IAH-GSP JUN 3>1.9
*UA IAH-HSV JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA IAH-LIR AUG 1.1>1.2
UA IAH-MBJ NOV 0.3>0.1
UA IAH-MGA AUG 1.5>1.6
UA IAH-MZT AUG 0.5>0.4 SEP 0.3>0.2
UA IAH-OAX SEP 0.7>0.4 NOV 1.0>0.7
UA IAH-PBC AUG 1.2>1.4
UA IAH-SAP AUG 1.4>1.5
UA IAH-SHV JUL 8>7
UA IAH-SJO AUG 3>4 SEP 2>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAH-SJU SEP 0.9>0.7
UA IAH-SLP AUG 1.4>1.9
UA IAH-TAM AUG 1.2>1.4
UA IAH-TRC AUG 1.2>1.4
UA IAH-TUS JUL 3>4
UA IAH-VPS JUN 3>4
UA IAH-VSA AUG 1.2>1.4
UA LAX-DEN SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8
*UA ORD-BIS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
UA ORD-CUN AUG 0.9>0.7 SEP 0.3>0.2 NOV 1.0>0.8
UA ORD-DAY JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
UA ORD-DCA AUG 15>14 OCT 15>14 NOV 15>14
UA ORD-DEN SEP 10>9 OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
UA ORD-DTW JUN 7>8
UA ORD-GSP JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA ORD-PHX JUL 3>2
*UA ORD-PNS SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1 NOV 1.0>0.1
*UA ORD-PVR SEP 0.2>0
UA ORD-PWM JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA ORD-RDU JUN 4>5
UA ORD-STT NOV 0.2>0.1
UA ORD-SYR JUL 6>5
UA ORD-TVC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA ORD-YYC JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA SFO-CUN SEP 0.2>0.3
UA SFO-JFK SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6
UA SFO-PDX JUL 7>9 AUG 7>9 SEP 7>9 OCT 7>9 NOV 7>9
UA SFO-PVR SEP 1.0>0.6
UA SFO-SBA JUL 9>10 AUG 9>10
UA SFO-SEA JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
*UA SFO-SJD SEP 0>0.7
UA SFO-SNA JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8

US CHO-LGA JUL 0.8>0.5
US DAY-LGA JUL 0.8>0.5
The service resumes in October???? WTF? That's extremely odd.
*US DCA-DFW JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 2.0>1.1 OCT 3>1.6 NOV 3>1.6
US DCA-PBI JUL 4>3
US DCA-RSW JUL 3>1.5
*US DCA-SAN JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
US ILM-LGA JUL 0.8>0.6
US LGA-ROA JUL 0.8>0.6
US PHL-EWR JUN 5>6 SEP 6>7
US PHL-LGA JUL 11>13
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:00 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-LGA JUL 11>13

They got rid of all those slots and still fly LGA-PHL 13 times. What a joke.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA SFO-PDX JUL 7>9 AUG 7>9 SEP 7>9 OCT 7>9 NOV 7>9

VX Response
 
apodino
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:30 pm

Allegiant is the one that stands out on this one to me. An awful lot of cuts for them, especially at AZA. With the Mad Dog's being the fuel guzzlers that they are, are they finally starting to hit a wall, or are they shifting their focus elsewhere?

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):

They got rid of all those slots and still fly LGA-PHL 13 times. What a joke.

That was always the plan...regardless of what people think there are a lot of US customers who do connect out of LGA in PHL to points further. I may not agree with it, but the market is there for it. Also, ZW is keeping a crew domicile in LGA and this is the only way to get ZW planes to and from LGA without pulling a lot of mainline from CLT-LGA, which I think we can all agree would be a very bad thing.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-DCA AUG 15>14 OCT 15>14 NOV 15>14

Of note, this is where the SFO slot is coming from.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-SNN OCT 0.8>0

Do they still run ATL-SNN? If not, I believe this is the last of the US carriers (except for maybe UA out of EWR), to serve SNN, meaning you have to fly EI in the future.

Two other notes

The DEN pulldown by UA is no surprise. WN's effect on that market is well known, and with F9 eliminating the last remnants of YX from their system, the planes are all going to end up in DEN, and with fuel prices where they are, UA realizes they can make more money elsewhere.

AA building up LAX is eyecatching. If I am not mistaken, these additions could make them tops at LAX over UA, which seems to be focusing more West Coast efforts up at SFO, despite VX being based there. I can't believe though that T4 has much more room for AA to add more flights beyond this though. Keep an eye on this if a US/AA merger does happen. This is why I think the PHX hub is safe in such a merger.
 
PHX787
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:35 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I see a pattern.
*AA LAX-HNL JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
*AA LAX-LIH JUN 1.6>1.8 JUL 1.5>2 AUG 1.6>1.8
*AA LAX-OGG JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

Perhaps competing with DL? IIRC, DL has significant Hawaii presence out of LAX

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
G4 AZA-LAS APR 1.0>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0

Ah, so Spirit took this route completely. Surprised to see this one end for G4

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-CVG NOV 1.9>1.1

Hopefully, they'll ditch the CRJs and move up to maybe an E170....this route is very uncomfortable to fly in a CRJ
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tommy767
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:37 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
The DEN pulldown by UA is no surprise. WN's effect on that market is well known, and with F9 eliminating the last remnants of YX from their system, the planes are all going to end up in DEN, and with fuel prices where they are, UA realizes they can make more money elsewhere.

To be fair, most of the DEN trims are for leisure destinations. They do this every year. Nothing new here.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:57 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
Allegiant is the one that stands out on this one to me. An awful lot of cuts for them, especially at AZA. With the Mad Dog's being the fuel guzzlers that they are, are they finally starting to hit a wall, or are they shifting their focus elsewhere?

They actually did a lot of Fall pulls from 2/week to 1/week in a bunch of markets, but because the difference was so slight and far away I did not show them.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
That was always the plan...regardless of what people think there are a lot of US customers who do connect out of LGA in PHL to points further.

It may be the plan, but they *could* fly a few mainline like they used to instead of an army of DASH-8s. It's just slot covering. We all know it.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
Do they still run ATL-SNN? If not, I believe this is the last of the US carriers (except for maybe UA out of EWR), to serve SNN,

It's just a seasonal pull. They moved the termination earlier.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Perhaps competing with DL? IIRC, DL has significant Hawaii presence out of LAX

I can't believe how G4 screwed up Hawaii. They took so long to get in that there are hardly any niches left.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Ah, so Spirit took this route completely. Surprised to see this one end for G4

It must have never been very good for G4 to give up so easily.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 4):
To be fair, most of the DEN trims are for leisure destinations. They do this every year. Nothing new here.

It's deeper than last year. Only 4 LAS is very light and last Fall they had 757s on it and this year only Airbus.
 
usairways85
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:00 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
That was always the plan...regardless of what people think there are a lot of US customers who do connect out of LGA in PHL to points further.

With the PHL-EWR increase UA/US will also be up to 10-12 flts a day. This is the same case, a number of people in PHL surprisingly connect through EWR and vice versa.
 
mli717fan
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:13 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
G4 AZA-CID APR 0.7>0.0
G4 AZA-FSD APR 0.7>0
G4 AZA-LAS APR 1.0>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0
G4 AZA-OAK APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Ah, so Spirit took this route completely. Surprised to see this one end for G4

I don't think this is cut, I think this is just another example of G4's screwy OAGs. They just extended their schedule last week, and they have the route continuing at 4x weekly through mid November. Further, they have CID's at least 3x through mid November, and it's daily the first week in April (5x the 2nd week, and 3x thereafter). I don't see G4 cutting this route to zero in April, it's just their weird OAGs.

Another example:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
G4 BLI-LAS SEP 0.7>3 OCT 0.8>3 NOV 0.7>3

A few weeks ago they cut this and a bunch of other BLI routes back dramatically. This week it's back up to 3x. For G4 to be so strict about keeping their LFs above 90%, they have to know the markets they serve, so I doubt they would seriously have service fluctuate this much.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
Allegiant is the one that stands out on this one to me. An awful lot of cuts for them, especially at AZA.

I wonder how many of the AZA cuts are seasonal. Arizona traffic always declines after grade school spring break (which is this week for many schools in the upper midwest), and the aircraft used on these routes could be going to other markets, or parked, for the spring / summer.

Likewise, I think most of the cuts to Caribbean routes by UA are seasonal pull downs.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA ORD-BIS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

This cut is the biggest surprise of the week for me. North Dakota is booming because of shale oil, and I'm puzzled why this route didn't meet UA's expectations.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA LAX-BNA JUL 1.0>2

So much for the long-held belief held by some posters here that LAX-BNA / YYZ were going to be cancelled "soon" by AA.
Seaholm Maples are #1!
 
mhkansan
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:36 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 8):
So much for the long-held belief held by some posters here that LAX-BNA / YYZ were going to be cancelled "soon" by AA.

I flew DCA-BNA-LAX on AA/Eagle earlier this month. While the BNA-LAX segment wasn't completely full, F was, and the agents in BNA said that its always full of celebrities and other high yielding traffic. Some of the best flight attendants in AA were on that route too! Very nice to all.
 
aaway
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
AA building up LAX is eyecatching

Most of those are seasonal adds. The additional BNA flight is most likely to stick beyond fall.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
Josh32121
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:19 pm

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 9):
I flew DCA-BNA-LAX on AA/Eagle earlier this month. While the BNA-LAX segment wasn't completely full, F was, and the agents in BNA said that its always full of celebrities and other high yielding traffic. Some of the best flight attendants in AA were on that route too! Very nice to all.

How funny to make an AA connection in BNA in 2012. I remember visiting the airport many weekends in the early 90's and walking through a bustling Concourse C and and the now-closed D (to watch from the tarmac level). Quite a different scene last time I was there a couple of years ago with some jetways removed and Canyon Blue planes parked on C instead of silver LuxuryJets. That BNA-LAX flight has stuck around this entire time, though, no doubt due to the entertainment industry on both ends of the segment.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:25 pm

Quoting MLI717fan (Reply 7):
I don't see G4 cutting this route to zero in April, it's just their weird OAGs.

Could be. Don't know.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 8):
This cut is the biggest surprise of the week for me. North Dakota is booming because of shale oil, and I'm puzzled why this route didn't meet UA's expectations.

F9 just added BIS right? I hope they fare better. "Gold rushes" are always short-lived.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:39 pm

Quoting Josh32121 (Reply 11):
That BNA-LAX flight has stuck around this entire time, though, no doubt due to the entertainment industry on both ends of the segment.

The entertainment industry is the primary reason this flight has succeeded, but Nissan has major operations in both the Los Angeles and Nashville areas. AA may be carrying some Nissan traffic, too.
Seaholm Maples are #1!
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

*AA LAX-HNL JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
*AA LAX-LIH JUN 1.6>1.8 JUL 1.5>2 AUG 1.6>1.8
*AA LAX-OGG JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

First thing that needs to be said is this will mark the exit of the 763 in the LAX-Hawaii market. All those flights will be 757 come July. Still, that does result in the addition of apprx 100 seats to both LAX and OGG. Good to see these markets recover to the levels before some slashing occurred in the past few years.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):


The service resumes in October???? WTF? That's extremely odd.
*US DCA-DFW JUN 0.8>0.2 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 2.0>1.1 OCT 3>1.6 NOV 3>1.6

Not so odd when they're reducing:

DCA-PBI JUL 4>3

and:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):


US DCA-RSW JUL 3>1.5

If those frequencies come back to Florida and they cut DFW again, that would be odd. No sense making DFW a seasonal operation, they can reduce PBI/RSW frequency and upguage the a/c when needed and keep the slots for DFW.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
AA building up LAX is eyecatching. If I am not mistaken, these additions could make them tops at LAX over UA,

AA and UA are very close - within less than 2% as of JAN12, but this won't quite do it unless UA keeps cutting LAX Skywest prop flying without replacing it.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Perhaps competing with DL? IIRC, DL has significant Hawaii presence out of LAX

AA is the larger player in LAX-Hawaii. None if this expanded Hawaii flying is new - AA does it every summer.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:56 pm

It's interesting to note that between AA, UA, and DL on HNL-LAX, there will only be one widebody out of a total of 15 flights come July. An AM DL 763. No AA or UA widebodies that I can find.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:19 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 8):
This cut is the biggest surprise of the week for me. North Dakota is booming because of shale oil, and I'm puzzled why this route didn't meet UA's expectations.

F9 just added BIS right? I hope they fare better. "Gold rushes" are always short-lived.

Also notice that UA added a 5th daily to DEN at the same time. Perhaps they have more feed to more western destinations hence the switch from ORD to DEN. Just my   
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 15):
If those frequencies come back to Florida and they cut DFW again, that would be odd. No sense making DFW a seasonal operation, they can reduce PBI/RSW frequency and upguage the a/c when needed and keep the slots for DFW.

It's got to be an error. Seasonal DFW?

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 18):
Also notice that UA added a 5th daily to DEN at the same time.

Responding to F9
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:28 am

why Do you find UA Wiping the DEN-SJD frequency out?? They always do.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:37 am

How long out of the year does the SS ORY-MIA run?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:07 am

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):
The entertainment industry is the primary reason this flight has succeeded, but Nissan has major operations in both the Los Angeles and Nashville areas. AA may be carrying some Nissan traffic, too.

Does anyone know the timing of this 2nd flight. I think a redeye would be perfect for business. Arrive at BNA in the morning fly back on the 6pm flight. Or vice versa, depart BNA on the turnaround redeye, and come back on the redeye.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:16 am

Quoting MAV88 (Reply 21):

How long out of the year does the SS ORY-MIA run?


September and October, just like always. SS does not fly to Miami during those months.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:29 am

Quoting runner13 (Reply 22):
Does anyone know the timing of this 2nd flight. I think a redeye would be perfect for business. Arrive at BNA in the morning fly back on the 6pm flight. Or vice versa, depart BNA on the turnaround redeye, and come back on the redeye.

Departs LAX 22:55, arrives BNA 04:55
Departs BNA 07:10, arrives LAX 09:20
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:44 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-ACV JUN 0>1.1 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2

Probably won't last a day after the revenue guarantee expires...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA LAX-BNA JUL 1.0>2
AA LAX-BOS JUL 3>4
I see a pattern.
*AA LAX-HNL JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
*AA LAX-LIH JUN 1.6>1.8 JUL 1.5>2 AUG 1.6>1.8
*AA LAX-OGG JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA LAX-SJD JUL 1.8>1.7
*AA LAX-YYZ JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>1.5

Most of it just appears to be seasonal additions. However, I would think that all the new Eagle feed is helping their established (mainline) routes. Probably more than a few AA FFers in places like TUS and ABQ that are eager to visit Hawaii. Any idea how LAX-PVG is doing, though?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA SJU-DOM AUG 3>1.5 SEP 3>1.1 OCT 3>1.0 NOV 3>1.0

And it's only a matter of time before it's completely gone, now that AA has announced the full closure of the SJU (Eagle) hub.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AM MIA-CUN MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.3>0

So AM can't make MIA-CUN work, but yet they are adding ORD-CUN and JFK-CUN?!? I guess this is further proof that Americans avoid the Mexican airlines like the plague when visiting the beach resorts...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-HTS MAY 1.8>0.8 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.8>0 AUG 1.9>0 SEP 1.8>0 OCT 1.9>0 NOV 1.9>0

Hardly surprising. DL has been busy pulling out of small markets lately, and with the 50 seat RJs becoming increasingly less economical with rising fuel prices, I'm sure HTS won't be the last one to go. I bet a lot of those small cities in the Rockies, Upper Midwest, and Deep South that have typically hosted turboprop or small RJ service are on the chopping block. I mean, will anyone really miss (or even notice the loss of) spokes like Lewiston, Idaho or Brunswick, Georgia   ?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Earlier end
*DL PHL-CDG SEP 1.0>0.1 OCT 0.8>0

It really is a mystery to me. AF crushes the U.S. competition on routes to IAD, SFO, and LAX, but can't make stuff like EWR and PHL work.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 MCI-AUS MAY 0.5>0.3
Been expecting this
*F9 MCI-BOS MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0

I never realized that MCI was as much a drain on the airline's finances as MKE. I bet the writing is on the wall when it comes to stuff like MCI-MSY/RSW/LAS.

It seems every time F9 tries to diversify away from the DEN hub (first the LAX build-up, then the extensive Mexican p2p flying, and then the expansion from YX hubs and focus cities at MKE, MCI, and OMA) they end up slowly returning almost all of their eggs to the DEN basket.

It isn't at all surprising to see F9 leaving BOS (again), although Boston/New England will be by far the largest (domestic) market without any kind of F9 service. I wonder if anyone will move to fill the void - it seems DL still does a daily E-175, but perhaps WN or even B6 will be interested in starting BOS-MCI? As for MCI-AUS, there is no history of established nonstop service and (since I believe DL already dropped it) people will have to connect through Dallas, Houston, etc. like before.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
KL IAD-AMS JUL 1.0>1.4 AUG 1.0>1.4 SEP 1.0>1.3

Reaping the rewards of UA's unprecedented downgrade from the 3-class widebodies to the 2-class 757, no doubt.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

Big Fall cut in DEN in leisure markets

No need to throw money down the drain on WN (and/or F9) trunk routes. Almost everything seeing frequency reductions is a highly competitive route, or at the very least suffering from nearby competition (i.e. reductions at SGF and XNA due to F9's BKG service, or MLI reduction thanks to F9's new CID service). Seems like most of their smaller niche markets are doing just fine. Now that IAH is a full-fledged UA hub, there may simply be very little need for nonstop DEN-Florida/Mexico flights outside of peak holiday periods.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA DEN-OAK JUN 1.9>0.1 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0

A lot of people seemed shocked by this move, but this is an airline that turned what was once a major gateway to South America into a seasonal spoke. Anybody loyal to UA in the East Bay probably won't find it too difficult to take UA metal out of SFO, SMF, or SJC.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA ORD-BIS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

Wow. They fill all those flights to MSP but not a single daily 50 seat RJ to ORD, which offers far greater connectivity.


Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA ORD-PNS SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1 NOV 1.0>0.1

At least they aren't dropping this route. This is probably just a reflection of the seasonality of this leisure route. Florida's Panhandle gets awfully chilly in the late fall and winter, and the fall period in general isn't a popular time for family travel.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*US DCA-SAN JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0

I figured they'd be using their slot for either SFO, LAX, or SAN - but I honestly did not expect them to pick SAN over the other two.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:20 am

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 9):
While the BNA-LAX segment wasn't completely full, F was, and the agents in BNA said that its always full of celebrities and other high yielding traffic. Some of the best flight attendants in AA were on that route too! Very nice to all.

Yep, last time I flew the LAX-BNA flight, it was a 757, I got upgraded at the last minute due to a no-show, and got to sit in front of two guys that were obviously planning the CMA's, throwing names around like Reba, Blake etc.. it was fun to eavesdrop, Some of the greatest flight attendants, but I've had very good luck with AA and staff, only once did I get into it with a gate agent at DFW, I guess maybe it's because I got F & J more than Y on AA flights I've taken worldwide.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):*AA LAX-ACV JUN 0>1.1 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2
Probably won't last a day after the revenue guarantee expires...

I think this is BOI all over again, I hope it goes better for ACV, but they need to change the times to better facilitate connections at LAX.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:01 am

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I figured they'd be using their slot for either SFO, LAX, or SAN - but I honestly did not expect them to pick SAN over the other two.

Why? It seems to be a large-enough market (even before you consider the ability to connect pax beyond DCA) and they'll likely have it all to themselves, at least in the mid-term.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 12:08 pm

Quoting wn676 (Reply 27):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I figured they'd be using their slot for either SFO, LAX, or SAN - but I honestly did not expect them to pick SAN over the other two.

Why? It seems to be a large-enough market (even before you consider the ability to connect pax beyond DCA) and they'll likely have it all to themselves, at least in the mid-term.

It's also a heavy military travel market, which US has initially focused upon for adding flights from DCA.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 12:56 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 26):
Yep, last time I flew the LAX-BNA flight, it was a 757,

When was that - I flew the route myself a couple of years ago it was a 738. I was in Nashville in dental school from 2007-2011 for dental school and one of my classmates from LA always took the evening flight out. Y always had plenty of seats in advance which leads me to believe it had a heavy walkup percentage.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:34 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
It's deeper than last year. Only 4 LAS is very light and last Fall they had 757s on it and this year only Airbus.

Dummy skeds. You are looking too far in advanced. Nobody reallyl knows at this time what the a/c will be by the time the fall rolls around.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:47 pm

Quoting altod (Reply 20):
why Do you find UA Wiping the DEN-SJD frequency out?? They always do.

I usually highlight most markets that go to zero. Besides, it was previously selling so they must have planned on flying it; unless they purposely dupe customers by selling flights they never intended to operate...which is fraud/bait & switch.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LAX-ACV JUN 0>1.1 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2
Probably won't last a day after the revenue guarantee expires...

True dat

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
So AM can't make MIA-CUN work, but yet they are adding ORD-CUN and JFK-CUN?!? I guess this is further proof that Americans avoid the Mexican airlines like the plague when visiting the beach resorts...

AM is a mess. They seem to hop from strategy to strategy about the time I change the sheets on my bed.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I never realized that MCI was as much a drain on the airline's finances as MKE. I bet the writing is on the wall when it comes to stuff like MCI-MSY/RSW/LAS.

LAS might be OK, but those others can't be as good as what they are already cutting.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
they end up slowly returning almost all of their eggs to the DEN basket.

Wave goodbye to COS then as it will be next on the focus city hot plate.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
A lot of people seemed shocked by this move, but this is an airline that turned what was once a major gateway to South America into a seasonal spoke.

Well, OAK was once a major ops center for the airline. There is a lot of history.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I figured they'd be using their slot for either SFO, LAX, or SAN - but I honestly did not expect them to pick SAN over the other two.

I wonder if it was chosen partially because WN used SAN to justify its AUS service. It is no coincidence that US waited longer than anybody to announce. They wanted to see who else went for what.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 28):
It's also a heavy military travel market, which US has initially focused upon for adding flights from DCA.

Possibly.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 30):
Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
It's deeper than last year. Only 4 LAS is very light and last Fall they had 757s on it and this year only Airbus.

Dummy skeds. You are looking too far in advanced. Nobody reallyl knows at this time what the a/c will be by the time the fall rolls around.

Perhaps, but 4 LAS from DEN is amazingly light. Fine, they did it last year too, but it is still very little freq.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:50 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
Do they still run ATL-SNN? If not, I believe this is the last of the US carriers (except for maybe UA out of EWR), to serve SNN, meaning you have to fly EI in the future

UA still fly SNN-EWR. IIRC double daily on certain days in the Summer. They are also the only airline to fly SNN-US year round now - EI stop for a couple of months or so after Christmas.

Not surprising UA's strong position in SNN. Appropiate sixed aircraft (B757), flying to NYC and feeding a very large hub
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:31 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Probably won't last a day after the revenue guarantee expires...

But if California would legalize the largest cash crop in the northern half of the state, the revenue wouldn't run out...

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
but perhaps WN or even B6 will be interested in starting BOS-MCI? As for MCI-AUS, there is no history of established nonstop service and (since I believe DL already dropped it) people will have to connect through Dallas, Houston, etc. like before.

B6 could have a flight that then runs through to AUS and then back out to FLL or MCO...just saying. Be nice to see them expand their AUS operation.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Wow. They fill all those flights to MSP but not a single daily 50 seat RJ to ORD, which offers far greater connectivity.

North Dakota was fairly loyal NW territory so I'm not surprised they still heavily favor DL. There is also strong connections between ND and Minnesota, not much so with Chicago, in VFR and business terms. In addition, if they are looking to route traffic to Texas for obvious reasons, using IAH as the destination - BIS-DEN-IAH is notably shorter than BIS-ORD-IAH.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Big Fall cut in DEN in leisure markets

The DEN cuts aren't just in leisure markets. PDX is a great city to visit, but it's not a leisure market. By the same token, SJC/SMF/BUR/MLI/OAK/OKC/XNA aren't leisure markets, and PHX is a fairly important regional business center, even if it also sees significant leisure traffic.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Been expecting this
*F9 MCI-BOS MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0

I'm surprised they kept it through the entire winter & spring, only to cut it for the summer.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*US DCA-SAN JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0

I figured they'd be using their slot for either SFO, LAX, or SAN - but I honestly did not expect them to pick SAN over the other two.

It's not so surprising; they'll get a better revenue premium as the monopoly non-stop carrier.

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 29):
I was in Nashville in dental school from 2007-2011 for dental school and one of my classmates from LA always took the evening flight out. Y always had plenty of seats in advance which leads me to believe it had a heavy walkup percentage.

I doubt Y is full all that often, but the entertainment industry sustains the flight with purchased F seats. Those folks aren't playing upgrade roulette, and if they were putting the 757 on the route, it almost certainly was for the larger F cabin.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 33):
North Dakota was fairly loyal NW territory so I'm not surprised they still heavily favor DL. There is also strong connections between ND and Minnesota, not much so with Chicago, in VFR and business terms.

It's also difficult to compete with seven daily MSP-BIS frequencies on DL when UA is only offering one. The schedule just isn't frequent enough to draw business travelers, and bargain-hunters aren't compatible with CRJ operating costs.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 33):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
but perhaps WN or even B6 will be interested in starting BOS-MCI? As for MCI-AUS, there is no history of established nonstop service and (since I believe DL already dropped it) people will have to connect through Dallas, Houston, etc. like before.

B6 could have a flight that then runs through to AUS and then back out to FLL or MCO...just saying. Be nice to see them expand their AUS operation.

MCI-AUS was a terrible market for F9. Crummy yields and few O&D passengers. A single daily round-trip isn't competitive with multiple connections at DAL/DFW/IAH/HOU; not everyone wants to travel at that specific time. It's even worse for B6 trying to pull off a point-to-point route like that, since at least F9 could offer connections via DEN, and F9 had a bigger market presence in MCI than B6 has in AUS. Now, BOS-MCI is probably large enough for either, but IMO B6 will only add it if WN adds BOS-MCI.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
They got rid of all those slots and still fly LGA-PHL 13 times. What a joke.

   What he said.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
regardless of what people think there are a lot of US customers who do connect out of LGA in PHL to points further.

It would be understandable if US had 13 banks in PHL, but they don't. Six to eight round-trips would cover that demand -- and a schedule of mostly 50-seat RJ's and Dash-8's really doesn't carry many customers.

Quoting apodino (Reply 2):
Also, ZW is keeping a crew domicile in LGA and this is the only way to get ZW planes to and from LGA without pulling a lot of mainline from CLT-LGA

I'd believe that argument if more than two of the LGA-PHL rotations were on ZW CRJ's; apart from a daily mainline aircraft from LGA to PHL, the rest is on EN Dash-8's. It's slot-sitting, plain & simple.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):
With the PHL-EWR increase UA/US will also be up to 10-12 flts a day. This is the same case, a number of people in PHL surprisingly connect through EWR and vice versa.

Except UA & US aren't the same airline, and they don't code share between EWR & PHL.

Quoting FL787 (Reply 17):
It's interesting to note that between AA, UA, and DL on HNL-LAX, there will only be one widebody out of a total of 15 flights come July. An AM DL 763.

757's are more cost-effective, and the 767's are better-used in long-haul international markets.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:22 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
It really is a mystery to me. AF crushes the U.S. competition on routes to IAD, SFO, and LAX, but can't make stuff like EWR and PHL work.

AF already has access to the NYC market via JFK. Also, UA's huge presence at EWR certainly does not help matters. As far as PHL is concerned, it is US fortress hub with generally lower fares. I don't think AF wants to chase after that.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:36 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
It seems every time F9 tries to diversify away from the DEN hub (first the LAX build-up, then the extensive Mexican p2p flying, and then the expansion from YX hubs and focus cities at MKE, MCI, and OMA) they end up slowly returning almost all of their eggs to the DEN basket.

You've said this before and I'm puzzled - Frontier has more destinations to Mexico than it has ever had, from more places.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
I'm surprised they kept it through the entire winter & spring, only to cut it for the summer.

The final straw was Delta adding the second MCI-BOS for the summer.

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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Been expecting this
*F9 MCI-BOS MAY 0.9>0.5 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0

I'm surprised they kept it through the entire winter & spring, only to cut it for the summer.

Not the first time they have done something like that. Puzzling.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
I bet the writing is on the wall when it comes to stuff like MCI-MSY/RSW/LAS.

I think LAS would be OK. There is enough of a market and only one other nonstop competitor.

Plus, I just bought a ticket for October, so it better stay around until that time  
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:59 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
Except UA & US aren't the same airline, and they don't code share between EWR & PHL.

Understood. My point was more along the lines of the amount of people who do connect between NE cities. US must have good number of people flying EWR-PHL-XYZ and UA must have a number of people flying PHL-EWR-XYZ to warrant the 7 and 4/5 frequencies respectively. I imagine the % of O&D on that route is in the single digits.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 39):
My point was more along the lines of the amount of people who do connect between NE cities. US must have good number of people flying EWR-PHL-XYZ and UA must have a number of people flying PHL-EWR-XYZ to warrant the 7 and 4/5 frequencies respectively.

Oh, I agree with that, but keep in mind that each carrier is feeding its own hub separately, so it's more logical to consider the the frequencies separately. There's very little O&D between ATL & CLT, but 21 daily flights each way on mostly mainline aircraft -- and that's because three different carriers are each feeding their own respective networks.

Equating that with 13 daily round-trips between LGA & PHL makes little sense, as only PHL remains a hub and bank scheduling at PHL doesn't justify that number of trips.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 8):
North Dakota is booming because of shale oil, and I'm puzzled why this route didn't meet UA's expectations.

I would expect them to increase flights to MOT.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
F9 just added BIS right? I hope they fare better. "Gold rushes" are always short-lived.

This rush is here to stay for a while....although it's not really close to BIS yet....thankfully...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL MOT-MSP SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8 NOV 7>8

To think that just a few years ago MOT had only a few flights a day...

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
It's also difficult to compete with seven daily MSP-BIS frequencies on DL when UA is only offering one. The schedule just isn't frequent enough to draw business travelers, and bargain-hunters aren't compatible with CRJ operating costs.

Also with DL, you can daytrip ORD for business, while with UA you can't. It was only one afternoon turn in BIS from ORD that went right back.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 29):
When was that
Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):


Quoting drerx7 (Reply 29): I was in Nashville in dental school from 2007-2011 for dental school and one of my classmates from LA always took the evening flight out. Y always had plenty of seats in advance which leads me to believe it had a heavy walkup percentage.
I doubt Y is full all that often, but the entertainment industry sustains the flight with purchased F seats. Those folks aren't playing upgrade roulette, and if they were putting the 757 on the route, it almost certainly was for the larger F cabin.


LOL, June 1993. Yes F was full, and I was given the last F upgrade at the last minute from a no-show


[quote=ScottB,reply=34]It's not so surprising; they'll get a better revenue premium as the monopoly non-stop carrier.

Not unless AS gets two awards.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:15 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
Equating that with 13 daily round-trips between LGA & PHL makes little sense, as only PHL remains a hub and bank scheduling at PHL doesn't justify that number of trips.

LGA is a business-oriented market and as such frequency is what matters most. If it were a standard market catering to leisure travel maybe we would see less frequency. And US does not have the aircraft to use mainline on such a high frequency, short stage length route.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 2:42 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
LGA is a business-oriented market and as such frequency is what matters most. If it were a standard market catering to leisure travel maybe we would see less frequency. And US does not have the aircraft to use mainline on such a high frequency, short stage length route.

Drink the Kool-Aid much? All that frequency is unnecessary for the business traveler precisely because the bank structure doesn't support it. DCA is similarly "business-oriented" and yet it only has 8 round-trips to PHL. EWR is also similar but only has 4 round-trips to PHL. And if you're trying to cater to business travelers, Jurassic Piedmont Dash-8's aren't the way to capture their loyalty. Business travelers aren't clamoring for three RJ/prop departures from PHL to LGA between 5:35 PM and 6:20 PM; they'd rather have a mainline aircraft with a shot at an upgrade. And the mainline fleet is not that tightly-scheduled; in 2011, the average aircraft did 9.8 block hours per day.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 3:09 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
I doubt Y is full all that often, but the entertainment industry sustains the flight with purchased F seats. Those folks aren't playing upgrade roulette, and if they were putting the 757 on the route, it almost certainly was for the larger F cabin.

  

The route doesn't need more capacity; AA goes out with plenty of empty seats, and while WN fills the planes, it's usually a ton of thrus (30+ to/from PHL or BWI isn't uncommon) and connections.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:19 pm

Hello,

What's the reason of IWA-FSD-IWA being dropped? usually the flights are pretty full

Thanks in advance!
-Nick
- Nick Ullom | KFSD | Flown: A320,B738,MD83,B752,MD88,CRJ2, CRJ9,E190,E175,C206T | FSD DEN MSP CVG MCO PHX OMA LAX JKJ A
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:21 pm

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 41):
I would expect them to increase flights to MOT.

They did a couple of weeks ago. I believe they went from from two dailies to four from DEN. The UA service to MOT is barely two years old.

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 41):
To think that just a few years ago MOT had only a few flights a day...

No kidding. Some of those flights are showing up as mainline A320s even. With UAs increase a week or two ago, MOT might see as many as twelve daily flights now. Not bad for an airport that was down to three or four dailies just a few years ago.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 25):
Wow. They fill all those flights to MSP but not a single daily 50 seat RJ to ORD, which offers far greater connectivity.

They didn't really reduce frequency to BIS, they just shifted it to DEN from ORD by adding a fifth daily from DEN. Several reasons have already been mentioned above.
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:15 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
as only PHL remains a hub and bank scheduling at PHL doesn't justify that number of trips.

Exactly. If they were truly serving the big int'l bank, for example, they would fly a mainline into that bank, but as of that schedule change it is all Express A/C.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
If it were a standard market catering to leisure travel maybe we would see less frequency.
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
LGA is a business-oriented market and as such frequency is what matters most.

But not to PHL. In a market like LGA, non-stop is king. High fare passengers don't want to connect and most certainly don't want to be hopping to PHL on a Dash-8. I'd wager there are very, very few NYC resident business travelers on those flights. US dumped all those slots because they failed at attracting NYC business passengers. Further, the places you can't fly non-stop from LGA are Europe and the West Coast essentially. US isn't flying mainline into their TATL bank and PHL is a crummy hub to serve the West Coast both in terms of frequencies and number of destinations, SO why fly it so often? I assure you those planes are filled with trash passengers going to Florida for the lowest possible fare and US allows it because they want to keep those slots for the time being.

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 41):
Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
F9 just added BIS right? I hope they fare better. "Gold rushes" are always short-lived.

This rush is here to stay for a while....although it's not really close to BIS yet....thankfully...

Well, for an airline to make it work it has to stay hot for a long while. Coupled with the lead time to sell it, it needs to last at least two years + 6 months of lead time to be even remotely successful. It's quite a bet to think that it will still be hot in 30 months after people start formalizing their living situation there.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:40 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 26):
I think this is BOI all over again, I hope it goes better for ACV, but they need to change the times to better facilitate connections at LAX.

Problem with BOI was the attempt to facilitate the entire network - 1 flight timed for Hawaii, the other timed for "back east" - with a bunched schedule. Should've been an early AM originator from / late(RON) to BOI.

Anyhow, the ACV sked isn't exactly optimized for regional (SAN, LAS, PHX - top markets to/from ACV) connections. But, being a two-carrier town and geographically isolated might spur the route to success.
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